GOP up 10 in Rasmussen Congressional ballot

posted at 11:36 am on July 27, 2010 by Ed Morrissey

Gallup’s latest polling on the generic Congressional ballot showed momentum swinging back to the Democrats, but Rasmussen has it going the other direction.  Their latest weekly survey puts Republicans up by 10 points among likely voters, giving them their biggest lead since mid-April:

Republican candidates now hold a 10-point lead over Democrats on the Generic Congressional Ballot for the week ending Sunday, July 25, the widest gap between the two parties in several weeks.

A new Rasmussen Reports national telephone survey finds that 46% of Likely Voters would vote for their district’s Republican congressional candidate, while 36% would opt for his or her Democratic opponent.  Support for Republicans inched up a point from last week, while support for the Democrat stayed the same.

Eighty-six percent (86%) of Republicans back their party’s candidate, while 74% of Democrats support the candidate of their party. Voters not affiliated with either party prefer the Republican candidate by a 44% to 23% margin.

Republicans have led on the Generic Ballot since mid-June 2009, and their lead hasn’t fallen below five points since the beginning of December.  Three times this year, they’ve posted a 10-point lead. However, the results were much different during the last two election cycles when Democrats regularly had large advantages.

To some extent, this is an apples/oranges comparison.  Gallup uses registered voters for its polling, while Rasmussen uses likely voters.  Depending on whether the pollster has the right turnout model in place, surveys of likely voters are more reliably predictive than those of registered voters, probably more so in Congressional elections when turnout is usually lighter than in presidential election years.

It’s easy to see what drives these numbers.  Barack Obama’s approval rating in this survey of 3500 likely voters is 44/55, with 44% strongly disapproving of his performance.  It’s actually worse than that among independents, 38/61.  He’s underwater with both men (40/60) and women (48/52), and only carries the 18-29YO age demo, 56/43.  Among all other age demos, Obama has disapproval ratings in the mid-50s or higher.

Not surprisingly, Americans are most worried about their pocketbooks in the upcoming midterms.  Forty-six percent of respondents named economic issues as their highest priority, while another 17% named “fiscal issues,” ie, spending, taxes, and the deficit.  In third place with 13% was national security.  “Domestic issues” came in fourth at 12%, which makes the Congressional fixation on ObamaCare look worse and worse.  That same order holds with independents, although national security and domestic issues tie for third place.

I’m not a big fan of the right track/wrong track question, as it is somewhat ambiguous to intent.  Nonetheless, the numbers are intriguing.  Two thirds (67%) think the US is on the wrong track, with only 28% saying that it’s going in the right direction.  Among independents, it’s 22/73.  These are powerful numbers for discontent and point towards a bad year for incumbents, even if the actual motivation can’t be entirely discerned from that metric alone.

Update: Hugh Hewitt calls this “the Democrats’ November death wish”:

Against this backdrop the Democrats refuse to extend the Bush tax cuts, refuse to fix the death tax which will skyrocket at the end of the year without action, and refuse to address the wild spending which has driven the deficit to levels that risk a fiscal stroke.

What do the Congressional Democrats instead offer as the key legislative debate?  A manifestly unconstitutional attempt to advantage themselves in elections via the so-called “DISCLOSE Act,” an absurdly partisan ploy to keep union campaign spending robust and concealed while crushing the ability of almost all other groups –except the NRA, the Sierra Club and a few other favored special interests– from impacting elections.

Not one Republican will support this proposal in the Senate, thus dooming it.  But not before most if not all Senate Democrats will go on record supporting this obvious assault on the First Amendment three months before the conclusion of an election cycle where concern over the Constitution and worries over the imbalance of power in D.C. are driving the vote.  Liberal commentators are ignoring the transparent attempt by Chuck Schumer to protect the left’s money machine at a cost of a carve out for the NRA, but new media has already shattered the attempt to pass this off as “campaign finance reform.”  Every time the president or one of the union-dependant Democrats speaks up on behalf of the law, the majority of voters just laugh at the shamelessness of the ploy.  Democrats continue to think that voters are as dumb as rocks, but they aren’t, and on this issue they know the score.

At the very least, I’d call it doubling down.  On a 16.


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Nancy can look for another job. Re career and climb wind turbine towers. With her claws, she may not need a ladder.

seven on July 27, 2010 at 11:39 AM

My congressman, Adam Smith, is OUT OF HERE!

The Rock on July 27, 2010 at 11:40 AM

I predict a big win for Republicans in November and they will screw everything up by April. I hope I’m wrong.

I watch Glenn Beck too much.

nazarioj001 on July 27, 2010 at 11:42 AM

Update: Hugh Hewitt calls this “the Democrats’ November death wish”:

insert obligatory Dirty Harry clip here.

ted c on July 27, 2010 at 11:43 AM

BP crews cannot find oil in Gulf

Politico crews cannot find Democrats in Congress.

WashJeff on July 27, 2010 at 11:43 AM

This is great news – not because of who will be swept into power, but because of who will be swept out.

If the GOP takes majority status and betrays the confidence of the people again, I do not think America’s survival seems likely in any constitutional form we can relate to.

Much depends on the GOP. That should scare the sht out of us all.

IronDioPriest on July 27, 2010 at 11:44 AM

My congressman, Adam Smith, is OUT OF HERE!

The Rock on July 27, 2010 at 11:40 AM

If only he was what his name sounded like.

JohnGalt23 on July 27, 2010 at 11:44 AM

If the GOP takes majority status and betrays the confidence of the people again, I do not think America’s survival seems likely in any constitutional form we can relate to.

Much depends on the GOP. That should scare the sht out of us all.

IronDioPriest on July 27, 2010 at 11:44 AM

If the GOP doesn’t straighten up, we either start a new party or take it over via purging. There’s very little choice left. I refuse to belong to a “progressive conservative” party.

MeatHeadinCA on July 27, 2010 at 11:48 AM

The death tax is something that Americans should be storming Congress over, if ever there was a pure bullshiite excuse to steal from the public, that would be it.

But the ‘rats are doing their best 1944 Wehrmacht imitation, destroying and scorching the earth as they retreat.

Bishop on July 27, 2010 at 11:49 AM

ouch!! thats gonna leave a mark…

moonbatkiller on July 27, 2010 at 11:49 AM

I refuse to belong to a “progressive conservative” party. MeatHeadinCA on July 27, 2010 at 11:48 AM

Indeed. During the 2000′s it was “I have more loopholes than you” style of governance by the GOP.

We need to get the party of slavery and segregation out of power but we don’t do it with socialist lite.

Mojave Mark on July 27, 2010 at 11:51 AM

NRO reports Joe Lieberman will miss DISCLOSE cloture vote today. Not worth his time?

Wethal on July 27, 2010 at 11:51 AM

Just as important, is to sweep democrats out of state offices, even county and local offices. They all must pay for the sins of their party.

There is no such thing as a good democrat – kick them all out, down to the school board, down to the dog catcher.

Rebar on July 27, 2010 at 11:55 AM

By the time the election arrives in three months, doesn’t nearly every pollster switch to the likely voter approach? If so, that would means Gallup should show a marked degradation in Democrat support as we start to get closer to the election. And, if they don’t, they would be horribly embarrased when the actual votes are counted (since only a small percentage of “registered voters” prove out to have been “likely voters”, ie, they actually voted). Spin problem for the Democrats…

MTF on July 27, 2010 at 11:56 AM

It’s actually worse than that among independents, 38/61.

This is a death blow to the democrats and the MSM.

It is a testament to alternative media and probably the Internet that Independents are not buying the lies coming out of the White House and the activists in the MSM that are helping to push them.

The journolist crew is on the same 24/7 “sellout for Obama” tour that they embarked on to get him elected.
It is looking like this time the public is not buying it.

The massive disconnect between what Obama says and what he does is wearing thin with the electorate.
“Blame Bush” and “It could be worse” is not consoling an electorate that is scratching to get by while Washington’s elite are on perpetual vacation and spending us into oblivion.

The overall theme I hear from the people I encounter is that “they(White House) don’t seem to know or care about what is happening to us.”

Obama spending the next month Vacationing in Spain,Florida,and Martha’s Vineyard while whining about Bush is certainly not going to help these numbers.

Baxter Greene on July 27, 2010 at 12:00 PM

Tax and spend. Rinse and repeat.

Nevemind that taxes have already been paid on the money held within an estate. Democrats just have to plunder and pillage everything in their wake. Remember in November!!

30 pcs of silver on July 27, 2010 at 12:01 PM

“We will keep the House, or at least you’ll take this hammer out of my dead political hands” –Nancy

Schadenfreude on July 27, 2010 at 12:02 PM

Nancy and Reid out w/b delicious.

However, the righties are not very smart and should not get overconfident, too soon.

Once in office, they are way too nice and fair to the children in charge now.

Schadenfreude on July 27, 2010 at 12:04 PM

The other time of a 10 point difference was,

06-13-10====36/46

04-18-10====36/46

03-14-10====35/45

canopfor on July 27, 2010 at 12:05 PM

I’d call it doubling down.

thety’ve got nothing else

cmsinaz on July 27, 2010 at 12:10 PM

Aren’t Independents just Democrats who don’t want to be labeled Democrats or really liberal Republicans? Independents are fickle and will change their mind/vote after one headline that catches their eye.

albill on July 27, 2010 at 12:16 PM

If the GOP doesn’t straighten up, we either start a new party or take it over via purging. There’s very little choice left. I refuse to belong to a “progressive conservative” party.
MeatHeadinCA on July 27, 2010 at 11:48 AM

What about the Conservative Progressive Party?

“No no, we’re the People’s Front of Judea!”

Bishop on July 27, 2010 at 12:18 PM

Democrats continue to think that voters are as dumb as rocks, but they aren’t, and on this issue they know the score.

Again, I think there’s plenty of evidence that a significant percentage of voters *are* “as dumb as rocks”, with both Obama’s electoral win and his continued approval ratings (that somehow aren’t in single digits) submitted as ample evidence.

Midas on July 27, 2010 at 12:20 PM

“No no, we’re the People’s Front of Judea!”

Bishop on July 27, 2010 at 12:18 PM

You sure that’s not the Judean People’s Front?

Midas on July 27, 2010 at 12:21 PM

Aren’t Independents just Democrats who don’t want to be labeled Democrats or really liberal Republicans? Independents are fickle and will change their mind/vote after one headline that catches their eye.

albill on July 27, 2010 at 12:16 PM

Nope. I am classified by the media (and my town voting registrar) as independent. But I prefer to use the word libertarian. I do vote mostly republican, but not always.

Johnnyreb on July 27, 2010 at 12:23 PM

The death tax is something that Americans should be storming Congress over, if ever there was a pure bullshiite excuse to steal from the public, that would be it.

***

Bishop on July 27, 2010 at 11:49 AM

In the form it returns at in 2001 (only a $1 million exemption and progressive rates increasing from 37% to 55% on taxable estates between $1 million and $3 million, Congress will get a lot of grief if it doesn’t increase the exemption level to $3.5 million or $5 million.

Because the tax automatically returns in 2011, Dems will probably have enough leverage to keep it, and the debate will center on the level of exemption and the rate structure.

Generally, the tax affects about only .5% to 2% of all decedents. As a result, it’s tough to get opposition to it. But from the class-warfare angle, the tax doesn’t generate that much revenue–I read somewhere that the IRS’s cost of admininstering it almost offsets the revenue generated by it.

BuckeyeSam on July 27, 2010 at 12:27 PM

I hope that influential people like Sarah Palin and Fred Thompson put their money where their mouth is for Angle’s campaign in Nevada. He says that Tea Party candidates MUST arrange for great managers and advisers in multimillion dollar campaigns.

maverick muse on July 27, 2010 at 12:40 PM

Fred Kicks Off Renew the Tax Cuts Campaign

maverick muse on July 27, 2010 at 12:41 PM

Angle’s campaign in Nevada.

maverick muse on July 27, 2010 at 12:40 PM

maverick muse:)
=====================================

Friday, July 23, 2010

“Please Stop” Harry Reid

Sharron Angle’s campaign finally is rolling out some good television commercials.

The following ad is a winner:

http://legalinsurrection.blogspot.com/2010/07/please-stop-harry-reid.html

canopfor on July 27, 2010 at 12:46 PM

“No no, we’re the People’s Front of Judea!”

Bishop on July 27, 2010 at 12:18 PM
==========================

You sure that’s not the Judean People’s Front?

Midas on July 27, 2010 at 12:21 PM

Mida:Haha:)
================================

The People’s Front

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=gb_qHP7VaZE

canopfor on July 27, 2010 at 12:49 PM

latest weekly survey puts Republicans up by 10 points

Master: “What is good in life?”

Conan: “Crush your enemies. See them scattered before you.
Hear the lamentations of the women.”

Get it, GOP?

Pour it on.

Bruno Strozek on July 27, 2010 at 12:50 PM

The left will find a way to make their corruption sound good, its up to us to beat them to the punch.

Speakup on July 27, 2010 at 12:50 PM

All your seats are belong to us. You have no chance to survive, make your time.

–from Zero Hour

Emperor Norton on July 27, 2010 at 12:55 PM

By the time the election arrives in three months, doesn’t nearly every pollster switch to the likely voter approach? If so, that would means Gallup should show a marked degradation in Democrat support as we start to get closer to the election. And, if they don’t, they would be horribly embarrased when the actual votes are counted (since only a small percentage of “registered voters” prove out to have been “likely voters”, ie, they actually voted). Spin problem for the Democrats…

MTF on July 27, 2010 at 11:56 AM

Not necessarily a “small percentage”–turnout is usually about 60% of registered voters in Presidential elections, and in the mid-40% range in midterm Congressional elections.

Still, if over half of registered voters don’t vote in midterm Congressional elections, why is Gallup counting their supposed preference for Democrats, while registered Republicans have a 12% lead in “enthusiasm” about voting over registered Democrats?

When Gallup calls some of these politically apathetic people, are some of them too embarrassed or squishy or “politically correct” to tell Gallup they oppose the Great Anointed One Himself, while not really planning to vote for or against his party in Congress? Yet, when a voter identifies him/herself to Gallup as a Republican, suddenly they are “enthusiastic” about voting!

While Rasmussen’s numbers tend to tilt more Republican than those of other pollsters, it should be remembered that Rasmussen showed Democrats leading the “generic ballot” by 6 points right before the 2008 election, when Democrats picked up 8 Senate seats and 30 House seats, so Rasmussen’s polling was close to reality then, and wasn’t sugar-coating anything for diehard conservatives.

Since the 2008 election, Rasmussen showed the generic Congressional ballot turning sharply toward the Republicans in June and July of 2009, when the debate on ObamaCare heated up with “townhall meetings” with angry voters, and the Republicans have been bouncing around between a 6% and 10% lead ever since. Rasmussen’s polls have consistently shown 55-60% opposition to ObamaCare or support for its repeal.

Independent voters went massively for Obama in 2008–they blamed Bush for the financial crisis, and there was probably some “white guilt” support for Obama as the first black President. They wanted jobs, but not socialized medicine, and Obama lost them by wasting 10 months on health care while the economy languished, and they will punish anyone who voted for ObamaCare and massive deficits.

A “generic ballot” poll of 3500 “likely voters” still works out to only 8 voters polled per House district, and some of these voters may have swung in “safe” districts for either party, which might reduce a Democrat’s margin or increase a Republican’s margin without seat pickups. Still, even if the Republican lead in the “generic ballot” is 8 points, that’s a 14-point swing from the 2008 election in Rasmussen’s poll, and any Democrat who won by less than 10% in 2008 should be VERY afraid.

Steve Z on July 27, 2010 at 1:00 PM

And Obama himself is back down to a good, solid -20.

EnglishMike on July 27, 2010 at 1:02 PM

donja think that this is one of the shrewdest decisions Bush and the Republicans made? By allowing the tax rates to expire on January 1, 2010 is turning into one of the major issues for the November elections?

lurker9876 on July 27, 2010 at 1:29 PM

We need to start remembering just how easily things are stalled, blocked and sabotaged in Congress. If the Republicans gain a majority in one or both houses, it will become possible to put the brakes on Obama’s destructive agenda – assuming that the Republicans are willing to pick a fight.

Actually accomplishing anything positive will require something more than that; starting with an actual mandate, which is why they need to run on an agenda of their own, instead of just holding back and hoping that the Dems will shoot themselves in the feet a few dozen more times.

RedPepper on July 27, 2010 at 1:55 PM

Nancy can look for another job. Re career and climb wind turbine towers. With her claws, she may not need a ladder.

seven on July 27, 2010 at 11:39 AM

She’s not capable of a job outside government, and she has made so many enemies in her own caucus through her tactics that she might not be elected minority leader anyway.

I can’t see he doing anything. Even a nanny, or a maitre’d in a restaurant, or working retail. Nope, she’s useless.

slickwillie2001 on July 27, 2010 at 4:07 PM

I whipped this photoshop up for November:

Ding Dong

justltl on July 27, 2010 at 5:22 PM