Oh my: Palin 28, Romney 18, Gingrich 17, Huckabee 13
posted at 4:08 pm on July 23, 2010 by Allahpundit
Via Conservatives 4 Palin, not only is this the best poll I’ve seen for her this year, it comes from the august precincts of The Economist.
Dude, is this happening?
Sarah Palin 28%
Mitt Romney 18%
Newt Gingrich 17%
Mike Huckabee 13%
Mitch Daniels 4%
Tim Pawlenty 1%
Mike Pence 1%
Haley Barbour 1%
John Thune 1%
No preference 17%
That’s a sample of Republicans, natch. Among tea-partiers, specifically, it’s Palin 26, Romney 19, Gingrich 16, and Huckabee 14. (Mitt does better among tea-partiers than among the GOP generally?) She also leads among a sample of all voters, albeit by only two points over Romney. Can’t tell if this represents a surge for her or if he’s simply fallen back a bit over time due to disgruntlement over RomneyCare, but great news for Palin supporters either way.
Do we dare discuss … the bad news? From the crosstabs:
12. Do you think Sarah Palin would have the ability to be an effective president?
Yes 28%
No 51%
Not sure 20%*
18. What do you think is Sarah Palin’s main priority?
What’s best for the country 23%
What’s best for her family 18%
What’s best for her career 49%
Something else 9%
That’s among all voters, who split 41/31 for Obama in a head-to-head match-up and 30/54 on the question of whether they think it’s likely that Palin would beat him if she wins the GOP nomination. The one bright spot in the crosstabs? When asked if the media has been harder on her, treated her the same, or gone easier on her than other politicians, the split is 47/18/22. For Obama it’s only 32/21/37 and for Hillary it’s 27/34/28. In other words, even among a sample of the general public that’s cool to the idea of her as president, there’s plenty of sympathy for how she’s been treated by the press. That’ll be a useful weapon for her if/when she runs and the frenzy of attacks begins, which explains why she was so sharp in rattling off her criticisms of the media to the Daily Caller yesterday. And it’s also a reminder of the point I made last week about her opponents needing to be careful not to condescend to her. No doubt some of this sympathy from the public is a backlash to media lefties unfairly accusing her of being some kind of dullard. That backlash can be transferred to candidates too, I’m sure.
From Alaska morning radio, here’s the latest on whether she’s running next year or not. Skip ahead to 3:50.










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Why did she quit her job as Govenor?
Dire Straits on July 25, 2010 at 1:32 AM
that’s it that’s all you got?
you would rather have a career politican like Obama who has never been without a title?
unseen on July 25, 2010 at 7:42 AM
Not everyone here has fallen for the Journolist propaganda, but let’s flip the coin for one second and see what you thought of Palin’s speech that she gave in Hong Kong. After all, if you don’t know about that then you cannot hardly claim to know much about Sarah, right?
She definitely has her faults, just as do you and I, but IMHO her successes outweigh those by miles. Care to put up any other Republican politician against her record of accomplishments? Ay Democrat? ;o)
DannoJyd on July 25, 2010 at 7:50 AM
Back on the topic of the post — it makes sense that Palin should lead. She has the highest positives of any Republican among Republicans.
Know who did in early 2008? John McCain. He won the nomination, after much gnashing of teeth.
If we had a race now, I expect Sarah would win. Intra-party positives win.
As for the general? Who knows? Stranger things have happened.
tigerinexile on July 25, 2010 at 8:32 AM
Hey, I have a radical idea, in 2012 lets have some primaries and we could let the primary voters decide who the candidate is! Unlike in 2008 when the RNC announced that McCain had won after only a single state primary. Lets not allow the RNC to foist their choice on us again. Let’s actually ahve the contest where you see who people really vote for.
I knew McCain would not win. I knew he was a bad choice. The only reason I voted for him was because of Palin. Of course, if you remember, liberal media loved McCain for the republican candidate too! That should have been a clue. Maybe we should all take a clue from abject fear leftists all have for Palin. And as is typical of a leftist none of them discuss her policy positions: they all call her names and try to smear her with rumor and lies. When she is free of the McCain handlers, who hate her, she does very well.
recklessprocess on July 25, 2010 at 8:47 AM
Like Rush says … the media will tell us who they fear the most.
darwin on July 25, 2010 at 9:32 AM
I’ve said it before: I will vote for Obama, or maybe even an obscure third party candidate, before I vote for FrankenSarah. I suspect many others will follow suit, regardless of polls, when they are alone in the booth and considering the reality of her as President.
Potfry on July 25, 2010 at 9:38 AM
Of course you will. It’s not like it’s something you haven’t already done before.
ddrintn on July 25, 2010 at 9:48 AM
^^ Overflowing with ignorance. Stupidity has no bounds.
darwin on July 25, 2010 at 9:49 AM
Potfry on July 25, 2010 at 9:38 AM
And if your hair were on fire, you would put it out with a hammer.
kingsjester on July 25, 2010 at 9:51 AM
The funny thing is though the PDS obsessives here are always saying that “Palinistas” will only vote for Palin. That’s shown to be false, but my! Don’t we hear a lot of “I’ll vote for Obama if Palin’s the nominee!”
ddrintn on July 25, 2010 at 9:54 AM
Too early. In the end none of the top 4 will be the choice of the party.
albill on July 25, 2010 at 9:58 AM
The top 4 are too prominent. One of them will be the nominee. It won’t be long until it’s 2011 and that Anonymous Slimeproof Savior hasn’t shown up yet. And he won’t.
ddrintn on July 25, 2010 at 10:05 AM
Conservative Samizdat on July 24, 2010 at 2:18 PM
MANY OF YOU ARE NOT ABLE TO ADMIT THE FAULTS OR WEAKENESSES OF PALIN AND IF ANYONE POINT IT OUT, A ZOMBIE SHARK FRENZY ENSUES OVER THE POSTER MAKING THE ACCUSATION
As many of you know I am a passionate supporter of Sarah Palin but I have been accused of being a supporter of Mitt Romney occasionally because of my analysis of various situations and sometimes questioning the wisdom of Palin pursuing a certain course or making a certain decision and have often commented no one would want me to become a member of their cult because I am an iconoclastic conservative which may be counterintutive for some but it is what it is.
It was in March 2009 that I called for Sarah Palin to not to run for re-election in 2010 and I also expressed my hope that she could leave office early because being under siege from the filing of multiple ethical violations at the behest of the Obama war room, Palin was not only not able to do her job as governor but if her enemies had their way they would destroy not only her political career but her personal life as well through forcing her into personal bankruptcy. Despite that the greater majority of Palinistas criticized me for my recommendation (I have never met Sarah Palin; she does not know me)saying there would be no way Palin could ever run for POTUS if she left office early, that I was irresponsible to suggest something so outrageous.
And I have called Levi Johnston and Bristol Palin Sarah Palin’s Achilles’ heel which has not endeared me to many Palin supporters. But from what has happened in the last couple of weeks with Levi getting back with Bristol, as I feared the tabloidization of the Palin family would only intensify as the MSM on orders from the Obama war room attempt to diminish Sarah Palin’s political credentials by associating her with her lowbrow future son-in-law and a daughter who they want to imply has gone astray because Sarah Palin is a bad mother and has failed her daughter by pursuing a political career. Of course we know this political strategy is directed at marginalizing Sarah from evangelical voters, traditional conservatives, and disdainful independents for the Left feels it affects their sensibilities with EV and indies not wanting to be associated with this “reality show” and someone who aspires to be the next flamboyant celebretard, often called “the celebrity meme”.
I wanted to point this out because I fully understand the situation that Sarah Palin currently finds herself in terms of personal life as well as her political life.
Having said that objectively has anyone noticed that no one of the Left, its minions in the MSM or even the anti-Palin forces on the right want to challenge Sarah Palin based on her Reagan conservative views? For example why is no one calling Palin out on her support of Governor Jan Brewer and the Arizona illegal immigration law. why is no one opposing Palin’s call to lift the moratorium on offshore drilling, and why has no one castigated Palin for opposing the building of the mosque at ground zero? Could it be because that would elevate Palin’s conservative viewpoints and her stature in the public consciousness or on the right does the GOP establishment fear a major fissure will arise on the right if it decides to lambaste Palin for her views? I think the answer is yes to both questions.
Having said that has anyone also noticed that despite the Left’s best efforts to not to give Palin a platform in which she can personally resonate with Americans in excoriating Obama and his radical agenda on a continual basas and the right’s best efforts to marginalize Palin as too polarizing and unelectable to be considered as a viable option for the GOP nomination in 2012, Palin has transcended these efforts to where she is now tied with Obama at 46-46 in a PPP h/h matchup and leading by double-digits in the Econ poll among Republicans, the topic of this thread.
In addition in a previous post I posted 18 months of blog entries at the PPP blog on Sarah Palin to show you how determined PPP, a Democratic pollster, was to destroy any chances that Palin could become viable. Obviously they have also failed.
The Left has failed, the anti-Palin forces on the right have failed, the MSM and the Journolist has failed, and PPP has failed and her eenemies in the entertainment industry and academia have failed to take her down. And how do I know this? The topic of this thread is telling.
Yes Sarah Palin has some personal challenges with her family, that is undeniable but I would suggest if you really want to derail Sarah Palin, start arguing against her political viewpoints, accuse her of being an extremist or outside the mainstream or accuse Palin of being a quitter but stop with the celebrity meme, the clueless idiot meme and trying to trivialize Sarah Palin, because it ain’t going to work. The polls tell the tale, my friend. It has taken almost two years for Palin to rehabilitate her image from narratives created about her during the 2008 campaign, and she is now very close to doing that, despite the best efforts of her enemies.
Sarah Palin is a political genius and superstar. If she were not, there is no way she would have survived the daily scrutiny of her life and the flurry of criticism, ridicule and vituperation that she has been under for the last two years and thrived as a national poltical figure. Palin is formidable and her opponents make a huge, huge mistake to underestimate her abilities and talents. There are two former governors of Alaska, one Republican and the other Democratic who can testify to that fact.
technopeasant on July 25, 2010 at 10:14 AM
albill on July 25, 2010 at 9:58 AM
TOO EARLY. NONE OF THE TOP 4 WILL BE THE CHOICE OF THE PARTY
You must have missed Paul Ryan’s interview earlier in the week in which he strongly suggested that it takes 2+ years to prepare to run or run for president “if you want to do it right” and he was not prepared to make that commitment now because he has young children.
albill, what you see now is what you are going to get, unless Jeb Bush enters the fray. I would call your attention to the topic of this poll. Look at the share of the vote the 5 “dark horses” garner. They are not viable and never will be unless one of the top 4 chooses not to run. The top 4 consume all the oxygen in the room. There is no room for anyone else unless your name is Jeb.
Many people focus on Giuliani being touted as the frontrunner early in the primary season only to flame out, but many folks choose to overlook that McCain and Romney were also front and center and considered in the first tier in the 2008 primaries. To me Giuliani’s situation is more the exception rather than the rule.
And finally the GOP has a habit of NOT nominating dark horses as its presidential candidate. The party is not about to do it in this primary cycle either.
What you see now is pretty well what you are going to get,w ith a big “if” with Mike Huckabee because of his current venture into making megabucks on daytime TV.
technopeasant on July 25, 2010 at 10:34 AM
Potfry on July 25, 2010 at 9:38 AM
I SAID IT BEFORE I WILL VOTE FOR OBAMA OR MAYBE AN OBSCURE THIRD PARTY CANDIDATE BEFORE I VOTE FOR FRANKENSARAH. I SUSPECT MANY OTHERS WILL FOLLOW SUIT, REGARDLESS OF POLLS, WHEN THEY ARE ALONE IN THE BOOTH AND CONSIDER THE REALITY OF HER AS PRESIDENT
The Obama war room should hire you as its point man. This is exactly the political strategy imho that the Far Left will pursue against Sarah Palin going forward, but unfortunately for the Left, Obama and his radical agenda have been exposed and Sarah Palin has done a lot in her guerrilla style to “let the sunshine in” and allow the American people to understand who Obama is and what his “transformative” and “redistributive” agenda is all about.
Simply Potfry if you vote for Obama in 2012, you are voting for authoritarianism, socialism, Marxism, or Fascism and condemning America to further tyranny. If you are sincere in voting for Obama, our side doesn’t need you. You are either for us or against us. There is no in-between. And I it doesn’t matter if Palin is the nominee or not.
Now if you vote 3rd party at least you will not be voting for Obama and I congratulate you for that. But what it tells me about you is that you don’t want to be part of the solution but part of the apathy that has allowed the Leftist Zeitgeist to expand since the 1970′s and now flourish under Obama.
Finally I disagree with you that a substantial number of folks on our side will vote for Obama. He is an anathema, the personification of evil. If someone indeed casts a vote for Obama in 2012 he/she is countenancing his “reign of terror” and is not on the side of freedom and liberty and individual initiative and opportunity. Good riddance I say! Let’s expose fifth columnists sooner than later.
technopeasant on July 25, 2010 at 10:54 AM
Palin will be the nominee, no question. She’s the cheeriest, savviest, toughest and most common-sensical candidate in the party (the cheery part will prove very important).
The real interesting question will be her VP choice. I’ve no doubt the choice will be from the gut and inspired.
rrpjr on July 25, 2010 at 11:05 AM
The real interesting question will be her VP choice. I’ve no doubt the choice will be from the gut and inspired.
rrpjr on July 25, 2010 at 11:05 AM
I’m thinking an outsider with major name and great character. someone like Gen. Peterus
unseen on July 25, 2010 at 11:09 AM
There’s a fun article on RCP about Palin nods to GA and, suddenly, it’s a race!
AnninCA on July 25, 2010 at 11:28 AM
Riiiiight, the reality of Barack Obama as President, in a second term, is so much more soothing than imagining Sarah Palin in that role.
Are you recovering from a hangover in your Las Vegas hotel room, by chance? I hear there’s a convention there this weekend….
Grace_is_sufficient on July 25, 2010 at 11:33 AM
Anyone the republicans nominate will beat 0bama in a landslide.
And the nomination is Palin’s if she wants it.
I wonder how many leftist twits will threaten to emigrate from America when that truth is accepted, and how many will actually do it.
Rebar on July 25, 2010 at 11:36 AM
^ Re: the article referenced by AnninCA:
She’s poison, I tell ya. Poison.
ddrintn on July 25, 2010 at 11:36 AM
Perhaps they hate Palin so much they actually would leave. And, that would be a good thing.
bw222 on July 25, 2010 at 11:40 AM
ddrintn on July 25, 2010 at 11:36 AM
SHE’S POISON
Yea, and she will also provide the antidote to Obama and his radical agenda.
technopeasant on July 25, 2010 at 11:48 AM
The Reign of Terror in France under Robespierre vs the Reign of Terror in the United States under Obama:
1)Blaming everything on the ancien regime:The guiilotine vs demagogery
2)Rejection of organized religion by government vs the advocacy of secular humanism, narcissism and hedonism
3)The abolition of the French monarchy vs the eventual gutting of the Constitution and Bill of Rights
4)Increasing individual disenchantment and angst, increasing family tensions, social unrest and instability of relationships and declining financial well-being accompanied by less freedom and less discretion to take advantage of opportunities
5)The emphasis on grievances or opening up old wounds (the abuses of the French aristocracy against the peasants vs the white man exploiting minorities)
6)The construction of huge bureaucracies to impose authoritarian rule
technopeasant on July 25, 2010 at 12:18 PM
You’re a dimwit and you have to be a leftist.
CWforFreedom on July 25, 2010 at 12:27 PM
Palin is doing extremely well, considering her image is still controlled mainly by a hostile press. At the point she has control of an audience, she does quite well. Reaganesque, actually
Palin is the only household name who does not stutter when she says ‘Tea Party’. She is not ashamed of the group, and does not fear them. From what I see, she understands it is a loose knot group united by a feeling their nation is being run into the skids, by spending and corruption. The group is constitutionalist, in a spectrum from libertarian to conservative. She has never given a ‘yes, but’ back-asked apology for the ‘bad’ element of the group, because she alone realizes it is not necessary – a group is defined by the group goals, not individual goals
Apologies and hiding under rocks are never signs of strength
The conservative public just wants someone who is not obedient to the jakes who put us in this mess, and for that they need to see proof of independence
entagor on July 25, 2010 at 12:32 PM
Thanks. I appreciate it.
The only other bar exam that I know of that is comparable in difficulty is the New York State Bar exam. I hear that is a monster of an exam.
Anyways, while I’m out taking the exams, I invite all of you to become followers of my blog. ;)
Conservative Samizdat on July 25, 2010 at 12:48 PM
our candidates are that bad
golfballs03 on July 25, 2010 at 12:53 PM
entagor on July 25, 2010 at 12:32 PM
APOLOGIES AND HIDING UNDER ROCKS ARE NEVER SIGNS OF STRENGTH
Amen! If it were not for Palin’s relentless guerrilla attack on Obama’s fortress in the past year, Mitt Romney could have laid in the proverbial weeds and the majority of GOP primary voters would not have thought worse of Mitt for doing so, being “the next one” but imho the GOP primary voters are beginning to focus on the many political successes orchestrated by the former governor of Alaska and can no longer deny the impact she has had on the national political conversation recently and in conjunction with that many conservative Republicans imho are now feeling that Romney has been AWOL for too long, that his absence from the battlefield for most of 2012, as you say hiding under rocks, is never sign of strength but of weakness.
Imho, Team Romney has made a huge mistake in strategy in 2010 by having Mitt remain so low profile. Yes Mitt may recover and recapture his “inevitability label” to some extent but he will never again be seen as the super odds on favorite to capture the GOP nomination in 2012. Romney has lost his political luster bestowed on him by the MSM, GOP establishment and by virtue of his 2008 2nd place showing in the primaries. It’s a whole new ball game. If you want the nomination Mitt, you’ll have to get in the ring and fight for it. And you know Mitt, under those conditions, I’d give the advantage to Palin. If you beat her Mitt more power to you, but I don’t think you can unless you get a new backbone, which your ego or advisors won’t allow you to get.
technopeasant on July 25, 2010 at 12:54 PM
Yep, good luck on the exam, Conservative Samizdat.
ddrintn on July 25, 2010 at 12:57 PM
They already HAVE! They slobber over Mittens and Huckster and don’t seem to give Newt a thought. The JOURNOlisters have spoken….and they most fear..SARAH!!
Dan Pet on July 25, 2010 at 1:03 PM
Right now I support Palin but I am perfectly willing to consider all potential candidates when they throw their hats into the ring. IMO that is why we have primaries and Palin will have to make her case then. Just as some of the anti-Palin people think she has negatives – the rest of the mentioned possibles have their own. How many times do the voters have to reject them in order for them to realize they’re not joining to get the job?
Some of them make my skin crawl and I would have to really hold my nose to vote for them. Most of them are retreads or guys who have set back quietly while she’s been taking the heat from the media. To pretend that all of them don’t have baggage that would become a constant meme if they got the nomination is foolish.
Funny how the anti-Palin crowd keeps accusing her base of being the ones who would stay home if she’s not the nominee but they are the ones already beating the drums about what a disaster she would be. Looks like they would be cheering her loss just as much as the KOS crowd.
katiejane on July 25, 2010 at 1:11 PM
Wait a minute. Where the heck is Ron Paul in the poll? We’re winning in two years for sure.
The Dean on July 25, 2010 at 1:12 PM
Dan Pet on July 25, 2010 at 1:03 PM
I have many pet peeves about how Sarah Palin is perceived but the #1 bone I have to pick is that she is somehow manipulating the MSM for her own purposes, that she has somehow “benefited” from all this voyeuristic scrutiny, daily ridicule and constant vituperation from the Left and even some on the right that she has been subject to in the last two years.
Could anyone tell me how Palin has benefitted from these MSM narratives or accounts:
1)Levi Johnston slandering her and making false accusations against her (“Trig is a retard”)
2)Accusing Sarah of adultery
3)Comparing Palin to Hitler
4)The McCain handlers levelling false charges against her after the campaign
5)The journolist conspiracy to bring her down
6)Constant accusations that Trig is not her son
7)Late night comedians or SNL implying Palin is a moron or a celebretard
8)Mike Huckabee implying Palin does cocaine
9)The MSM accusing Palin of inspiring or inciting violence when she listed the 20 Dem districts “in the crosshairs”
10)Falsified and inaccurate polls that show Palin is behind the 8-ball in support and selective editing that misrepresents or distorts what she said or what her message was.
Now honestly tell me how these narratives or accounts benefit Palin with the GOP primary voters. If anything they would turn off many voters or make voters shy away from her thinking she in unworthy to be presdient or in the present not giving much consideration to whom she endorses.
Imho, Sarah Palin is where she is not in the polls and increasingly favored by the GOP primary voters not because of the MSM but in spite of its best efforts to derail and sabotage her political efforts.
technopeasant on July 25, 2010 at 1:28 PM
katiejane on july 25, 2010 at 1:11 PM
LOOKS LIKE THEY (ANTI-PALIN CROWD) WOULD BE CHEERING HER LOSS JUST AS MUCH AS THE KOS CROWD
An interesting survey/poll question to separate the wheat from the chaff is to ask liberal/moderate Republicans who represent currently 27% of the GOP, who do they loathe most: Obama or Palin?
Unfortunately, I think the majority of the RINO’s would pick Palin. I really do. And that is what is wrong with the GOP: Too many factions to hell-bent on spilling the blood of its own members rather than inflicting pain and suffering on the enemy in a “take no prisoners” fashion.
Oh by the way there is precedent for this. In the 1930′s the Conservative govt under Stanley Baldwin hated backbencher Winston Churchill way more than they loathed the newly crowned Chancellor of Germany, Adolf Hitler.
technopeasant on July 25, 2010 at 1:41 PM
PM
Heh.Keep telling yourself that.
CWforFreedom on July 25, 2010 at 2:33 PM
Bad news for the anti-Palin forces. The editor of the Anchorage Daily News and former Palin hater will vote for Palin over Obama if she runs in 2012:
http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-gop/2558579/posts
From Brices Crossroads in comment section:
“Believe me, this fellow’s mindset, warped as it was, was the view of many Reagan voters in 1980. Many had misgivings about him, but they appraised the situation and decided that Carter had to go. Once the decision to fire Carter was taken, the only option (Anderson could never have won) was Reagan. And they said, as this dummie says now, “Reagan couldn’t be as bad as Carter.” And they pulled the lever for him.”
“She (Palin) is the frontrunner for the “Fire Obama vote.” if people decide he has to go for the good of the country, they can either not vote or vote for Palin. If they really want Obama out, which most will, THEY WILL VOTE FOR PALIN EVEN IF THEY HATE HER (my bold print).”
“…if she is the GOP nominee and the voters have made the judgment to fire Obama, she will be the 45th President of the United States. The real issue will be how effective her campaign will be. If she runs a campaign of conviction, guts and panache that resembles the last year, something of which she is entirely capable (and which I find the most likely scenario). the GOP will obliterate the Democratic candidates down ballot and it will be a realigning election even deeper and more enduring than 1980 and 1932.”
“This is why the Democrats fear her. Because of her vision, the strength of her convictions and her political skills, she threatens their power not merely for four or eight years, but for generations. She is going to reorient the country’s view of the Constitution away from its current use to promite “fairness” (which the liberals call “justice)and which Marx referred to as “from each according to his ability…”) to its true purpose which is to PROTECT people from the Government. She will begin repealing laws where possible, impounding funds to starve the leviathan when laws cannot be repealed, and using all the powers of the Presdiency in a full bore assault on this entire philsophy and underpinnings. This is what the liberals in D.C feared that Reagan would do, but what he never acheived for reasons too complex to get into here. Where Reagan merely scratched the surface, Palin will blow the door wide open. God go with her.”
technopeasant on July 25, 2010 at 2:36 PM
Yep, you got it.
ddrintn on July 25, 2010 at 2:38 PM
This is the not first Econ/youguv poll done on Sarah Palin. Actually over the last few months periodically they have polled her favorables:
DATE: OVER 65+ W M WHITE GOP IND CONS
2009
7/10 38.6 58.8 34.8 42.9 43.3 79.0 38.3 76.4
8/20 38.5 49.9 37.2 40.0 42.9 77.5 43.8 76.1
11/6 36.5 49.4 31.9 41.4 40.4 73.9 38.0 75.4
2010
2/11 38.6 57.4 34.5 43.2 42.7 76.0 39.9 76.6
7/8 37.8 55.2 34.0 42.0 42.0 77.6 33.7 76.5
7/22 36.4 50.1 31.8 41.5 40.9 75.7 37.2 76.1
COMMENT:
I think you can see that Palin has been consistently above 40% F with WHITE voters and males, above 50 F with the 65+ crowd and around 75% F with both the GOP and conservatives for quite a while now. But what may changed now is what I call the credibility gap, the gap that exists between those who “like” her and those who would cast a vote for her, may have narrowed where there are not nearly as many people as skeptical now that either will run for POTUS or that she qualified for the job and electable.
technopeasant on July 25, 2010 at 3:53 PM
From a February 2010 Econ/youguv poll that asked respondents if they thought that Sarah Palin was LESS QUALIFIED than Obama that helps provide an understanding why Palin’s poll numbers may have picked up recently:
TRUE FALSE UNSURE
OVERALL 54.3 33.6 12.1
18-29 62.6 24.0 13.4
30-64 53.1 35.1 11.9
65+ 47.5 41.3 11.2
WHITES 49.9 40.0 10.2
MALE 55.0 35.9 9.1
FEMALE 53.6 31.7 14.7
DEMS 81.5 7.5 11.0
GOP 10.4 78.5 11.1
INDIES 57.0 34.8 8.2
LIBS 94.7 4.4 0.8
MODERATES 67.8 18.5 13.6
CONSERV 17.9 74.4 7.6
NE 55.3 33.8 10.9
MIDWEST 46.2 39.2 14.6
SOUTH 54.8 31.8 13.3
WEST 62.4 29.9 7.7
<$40000/YR 64.6 30.4 16.1
40-100 50.1 42.1 7.8
100+ 69.8 18.4 11.8
COMMENT:
1)If you notice Palin polls in the mid-70's with Republicans and conservatives five months ago who believed at the time that Palin was no less qualified than Obama to be POTUS. At that time I think some of these folks were not willing to go all the way and vote for Palin in the polls but by the same token realized that Obama was screwing up the economy and trying to impose his radical agenda on the USA, that he might indeed go down in their estimation. I think if you took the same poll today of Republicans and conservatives Palin would be over 80% with both groups saying she is just as qualified as Obama and I really think that accounts for some of her success in polls recently.
2)Note also that at least 40% of WHITES, people 65+ and those making between $40,000 and $100,000 per year did not view Palin as less qualified than Obama 5 months ago. I think lately Palin has been making significant inroads with the middle class as Obama's stimulus package has been found wanting and he spends America into insolvency and many of these folks are WHITE conservatives/Republicans who are very disappointed at Obama and lately have come around that Palin may be even more qualified to fix the economy than Obama.
3) I will make no bones about it: some of Palin's increase in her polls numbers are a result of Obama's plunge in his job approval numbers. These two are inextricably intertwined. What I think has now happened in the last few weeks especially around the 4th of July is that families have got together, talked about politics, the economy, Obama and the GOP/conservative/Tea Party subject and have come to the conclusion, at least members of our side and some independents as well, that they don't cotton to what Obama is doing, has done, or trying to do to change America and that they have to get active and make sure the Democrats get a good spanking this November. In addition to that many of these folks have been talking about the presidential contest and the GOP primaries, some are more knowledgeable than others, but I think the consensus is now that Palin is on the rise and Mitt has either plateaued or not as favored as he once was and I think it simply comes to do Palin being more out front on the issues and in the face of Obama and Mitt choosing to stay in the background, doing fundraisers and strengthening his organization. And of course Mr. Newt has severely hurt Team Romney.
Thus you have the results you have showing Palin with a double-digit lead over Mitt and a 15 point lead over Huckabee. Perhaps Palin has turned a corner. Not as many people may see her as unelectable any longer.
technopeasant on July 25, 2010 at 4:27 PM
Anyone who admits they would sooner vote for Obama than Palin needs to turn in their conservative credentials and beat it over to the other side. That’s not a purity test; it’s a vote-for-sanity-or-get-out test. I loathe Huckabee, but if he were on the ballot, I’d vote for him. I’d probably have to puke in the nearest trash can afterward, but I’d still do it. PDS sufferers seem unable to do the same. Who is screwing the party again?
NoLeftTurn on July 25, 2010 at 4:37 PM
Someone will probably call me a Kool-Aid drinker, but the possibility of this happening brings a tear to my eye.
NoLeftTurn on July 25, 2010 at 4:45 PM
NoLeftTurn on July 25, 2010 at 4:45 PM
That piece by Brices Crossroads needs to get out to every Palin site and all the Palinistas. When the going gets rough or tough as we move along to November it will be important to read his piece again and again. It is one of the most uplifting and insightful pieces that I have read for a long time that links the voters of the Reagan years with our current political predicament and lay of the land.
Once a Palinista reads it, there is no turning back. Bridges will be burnt and Rubicon will be crossed. We shall never surrender to Obama and his Marxist hordes.
technopeasant on July 25, 2010 at 5:00 PM
Mine, too!
May God bless Sarah and the country and keep us all together until we can install her as POTUS in 2013.
T
Wonderful stuff!
Thanks so much for posting…(I used to be a FReeper. I miss the place and the folks over there.)
Jenfidel on July 25, 2010 at 5:44 PM
spen52 on July 23, 2010 at 7:45 PM
I WOULD AGREE THIS POLL REPRESENTS A SLIDE IN ROMNEY SUPPORT, MORE SO THAN A SURGE IN PALIN SUPPORT…HIS CARRY-OVER POSITION FROM 2008. AS LONG AS HE STAYED IN THE BACKGROUND HIS SUPPORT STAYED ESSENTIALLY STATIC
One of the interesting dimensions in politics is the decision of a voter to “park” his vote with the candidate he/she voted for in the past primaries, which begs the question why he/she has decided on this course of action or inaction, and what incentive, trigger, or event could figuratively cause them to get off their couch and change the channel?
Well let me first deal with voters making a decision to “park their votes. Here are several reasons why they may choose to do so:
1)Some people are simply creatures of habit or intellectually lazy
2)They genuinely like the candidate
3)Lack of knowledge or appeal of current roster of candidates
4)Don’t want to think about politics now-too soon in the cycle
5)The campaign has kept in touch with them between primary cycles-on a mailing or e-mail list
6)They share the candidate’s values or ideology
7)They are currently giving money to the candidate
8)MSM reports of how candidate is doing in the polls, raising money, whether he will run etc.
9)Other family members. friends or church members are backing this candidate-follower the leader syndrome
10)Personal friendship or close acquaintance
11)Vested interests
12)Best chance to win in 2012
13)The establishment choice
Now crudely put what could cause these folks to change channels in midstream, in other words shift their loyalties to a different candidate or become undecided? And I will pay special attention to Romney in answering this question:
At the end of 2009 and beginning 2010, there was growing momentum through Fox News and the media and blogs in general that Mitt Romney “was the man to beat” as Tiger Woods is the man to beat in any golf tournament he enters. He was portrayed as “the next one” and some had the audacity to tout him as “the inevitable candidate”. Obviously the strategy of Team Romney was to surround Mitt with an aura of invincibility and to project a growing confidence that his high finish in the 2008 primaries made him deserving of the nod in 2012. And to boot the GOP had a habit of rewarding the high loser of the previous primaries with the nod in the next. For example McCain finished second to Bush in 2000 and got the nod in 2008. Same with Reagan in 1976 and then the nod in 1980. And so it stands to reason that Romney voters, as spen52 suggested, carried over their vote for Romney to this election cycle, being prepared to “park” their vote with Romney until something changed their mind, if it ever did. Thus Romney did well in the PPP state polls in February, March and April, and he did surprisingly well among conservatives, in many states even better than Sarah Palin.
But then in May, PPP changed the dynamics of the poll by including Newt Gingrich’s name and Ron Paul’s name consistently in every poll. The first sign of trouble for Romney was in Colorado in mid-May when PPP revealed that Mitt had lost 19 points in CO between the Feb. and May polls (44 to 25%) and that Sarah Palin at 29% was now the frontrunner in CO. But the real story of the poll was how much Newt had cut into Romney’s core supporters.
Now one could make the argument it was a fluke, but after the same thing happened in several more polls with Newt being the fly in the ointment and Romney declining in the second poll in a state by double-digits it became abundantly clear that Romney’s polls numbers were going “south”. And frankly until I see any evidence to the contrary I will assume they are still going south even now.
Not everybody is a political junkie but a lot of folks are and once they got wind of Mitt apparently losing support with Newt being the chief beneficiary, these folks who had parked their vote with Mitt out of 2008 loyalty imho began to gradually rethink their support for Mitt and like many folks in mid May in CO decided that Newt was more their cup of tea. Of course by laying low Romney did not do anything to help his cause while these folks made the move to Newt. If he had, perhaps he could have caused it to be a gentle ripple rather than a tidal wave that went Newt’s way.
Now the $64,000 question is why did so many of Romney’s supposed supporters move over to Newt? Frankly I don’t know and that would be an excellent for a pollster to ask. But suffice it to say it did happen. Now while this was going on Palin was also gaining more support as well, some from Romney but imho evangelicals from Huckabee because of the uncertainty he will run or not and also from the undecided category (many Tea party types) of those who always liked Palin but had fallen for the MSM that Palin was either unqualified or unelectable but had seen enough and realize that they were being sold a bill of goods by the MSM.
As a result Romney’s numbers have plummeted while Newt’s have soared and Palin has been on the ascendancy as well; but because Palin started at a higher threshold of support she jumped to #1 while Newt is shown by Econ to be only 1 point behind Mitt.
Could Romney have staved off his loss of support by being more engaged in the spring and early summer? We’ll never know but if he never retakes the lead again, we might be able to conclude that Mitt blew his opportunity to be POTUS in the spring-early summer of 2010. In a year or two we’ll find out if this was actually the case.
In conclusion I think Team Romney has missed one key component that has apparently allowed Sarah Palin to break out of the pack, which is the hatred,loathing, animosity whatever you want to call it towards Obama and his radical socialist agenda and the ability of Palin to tap into that frustration apparently oblivious to Team Romney at the time.
Is this a breakthrough for Palin in terms of the polls? We’ll see after a couple more horserace polls but let me say that Palin has had a wonderful couple of months with endorsements, speeches, appearances of Fox news, cogent Facebook posts etc. and it would not surprise me one bit that she has finally broken through with some of the folks who always gave her thumbs up but no longer are reticent about voting for her. And that is bad news for Romney and the other GOP contenders as well. Once a Palinista, always a Palinista. You will not be able to win them back.
technopeasant on July 25, 2010 at 6:31 PM
Who says Jeb Bush stepping in will be the gamechanger? Screw Jeb Bush! What is this, divine right succession or something? Stay out the Bushes! Enough with those RINOs.
Yephora on July 25, 2010 at 7:30 PM
Yephora on July 25, 2010 at 7:30 PM
Jeb is now sending out trial balloons to see how receptive GOP primary voters would be if he ran.
Here is how I see Jeb. Ideally he wants to wait till 2016 after the sacrificial lamb (Romney, Huckabee, Gingrich) is defeated by Obama and then he can ride in one his white steed to save the day four years later.
Unfortunately the rise of Sarah Palin may have knocked his plans into a cocked hat. Jeb is keeping his eye on Palin and frankly he may have reached a point where he is sizing up the lay of the land and may not like what he is seeing from the three wise men (Mitt, Huck and Newt) lately.
As you know the GOP eatablishment is heavily invested in Romney? The $64,000 question is whether the powers to be would bail on Mitt for Jeb and if they did when would they make the move or what would prompt them to make the move. And of course if they did, would Jeb run?
I would say if more polls confirm Palin with a double digit lead over the field and that continues throught the summer, I can see the possibility being discussed behind closed doors. It’s do or die for the GOP establishment. They cannot allow Palin to prevail and they are prepared to do anything to stop her from winning the GOP nomination in 2012 including backing another Bush.
technopeasant on July 25, 2010 at 8:02 PM
Hillary vs any GOP male wins, because she gets the votes of all those who are most conerened with “first femaale POTUS” result.
Hillary vs ‘Cuda however, ‘cuda wins, due to the mere contrast between the two women.
You heard it here foist.
Akzed on July 25, 2010 at 9:38 PM
Hillary has to drag Billy Boys baggage with her. We also need to repeal the health care disaster and no one will want Hillary for that. CUda rocks.
johnnyU on July 25, 2010 at 9:56 PM
I know this thread is near dead, but Brices Crossroads at FreeRepublic posted a followup after someone noted that folks at HotAir had picked up his/her first comment:
Bracing stuff. It’s like a shot in the arm just reading it.
Missy on July 25, 2010 at 10:45 PM
Missy on July 25, 2010 at 10:45 PM
I stand with Sarah Palin.
Amazing, I need to share that. WOW!
idesign on July 25, 2010 at 11:10 PM
Speaking of Ron Paul…I’m currently getting into it w/some of his minions on a FB friend’s wall post.
Of course RP isn’t anti-Israel…he’s just against ‘foreign entanglements’. Of course he isn’t anti-Jewish(despite getting endorsements from Stormfront) he’s just against ‘international bankers’. He’s not a truther and we don’t know why they like him so much-he just thinks that the government lies. So Alex Jones likes him-he’s not that bad.
You get the picture.
I’m using links from HA to show them the error of their ways.
Heh.
annoyinglittletwerp on July 26, 2010 at 12:15 AM
Here are the results of the entire poll of the GOP contenders at Econ/youguv (top 4 contenders):
OVERALL 18-29 30-64 65+ WHITE BLACK HISP
PALIN 16.2* 15.6 16.2* 16.8* 17.2* 14.0* 8.6
ROMNEY 14.4 16.0* 13.9 13.9 13.9 4.9 10.1*
HUCKABEE 11.3 7.5 11.8 16.0 12.0 9.1 7.2
GINGRICH 7.8 3.6 8.1 13.7 8.1 4.3 9.7
MALE FEMALE HIGH SCH SOME COLL COLL GR
PALIN 16.4 15.9* 18.2* 17.2* 10.6
ROMNEY 18.1* 11.2 9.2 16.1 23.0*
HUCKABEE 9.3 13.2 10.6 12.8 10.8
GINGRICH 11.4 4.7 6.8 8.7 8.7
DEMS GOP INDIES LIBS MOD CONS
PALIN 10.3 28.4* 13.6 12.1 11.4 23.4*
ROMNEY 11.3* 17.9 17.9* 15.5* 13.7 19.4
HUCKABEE 10.0 12.6 13.3 5.6 16.1* 15.0
GINGRICH 2.7 16.6 8.9 2.4 6.6 16.1
NE MW STH WEST <$40,000 40-100 100+
PALIN 12.9 20.9* 16.2* 14.4 16.7* 16.1* 14.2
ROMNEY 15.8* 9.6 11.7 22.1* 10.0 15.5 21.4*
HUCKABEE10.4 13.0 10.7 11.5 10.6 13.0 7.0
GINGRICH7.2 4.8 10.6 6.8 6.0 9.0 14.6
*frontrunner in category
COMMENTS:
1)Obviously from this thread Palin does very well with Republicans but she also does well with conservatives, all age spectrums, the lower and middle class, and in the midwest and the south. She does not do as well with college graduates, those who make over $100,000 a year, in the West, and with moderates. The only thing I would challenge with this profile is about not doing as well in the West. I think it has been determined there are pockets in the West, Rocky Mountain states that she does very well but not on the West coast.
2)Romney also does well across the age spectrums, does better with males than females, does very well with college graduates and those who make over $100,000 a year, but does not do well with high school grads, and in the midwest and as we know from the poll is trailing Palin by double-digits among Republicans although he only trails her by 4 points among conservatives.
3)Huckabee does well with seniors, better with females and like Palin poorly wih college graduates and those making 100+ a year. Being 15 points behind Palin among Republicans is surprising but so is being number one among moderates. Regionally it is obvious than Huck doesn't do as well in the West and it is very surprising he only finishes 3rd in the South, which is supposed to his stronghold.
4)I don't know what to make of Newt's numbers because except for 65+, and finishing 3rd among Republicans and conservatives and doing decent in the south and finishing 2nd with those making $100000+ year Newt's other numbera are abyssmal. People often talk about Palin having no crossover support. Gingrich appears in this poll to have very little of that as well.
technopeasant on July 26, 2010 at 2:20 AM
Well, given the reliability of polls taken 18 months before the first actual voting, I think this tells us . . . nothing.
`
`
At this point in 1950, no one thought Ike would even run. In 1962, nobody thought Goldwater had a chance, and you could have got huge odds against Nixon this time in 1966. Humphrey wouldn’t have scratched the surface, either, since everyone expected LBJ to run for a second full term. In 1974, few outside Georgia even knew who Jimmy Carter was. Who predicted Dukakis in 1986, or GWB in 1998 (most Bush speculation centered on Jeb)? And so it goes . . .
`
Given the history of party primaries without an incumbent running over the last half-century or so, it’s at least as likely the nominee will be someone not mentioned in the list of five this poll tested.
Adjoran on July 26, 2010 at 3:21 AM
Its been said that you can fool some of the people all the time. Obama is counting on that fact.
If he has you fooled, take your number…
Franklyn on July 26, 2010 at 3:32 AM
Adjoran On July 26, 2010 at 3:21 AM
All you say is true but the key element that you miss is 21st c technology. Without 24/7 cable news, the Internet, the blogosphere and Intrade and with the MSM basically controlling all the news traffic, yes somebody else could sweep in, but not anymore.
What you see is what you will get unless Jeb Bush enters the fray. You can take that to the bank. There are just too many candidate at the top splitting off the vote now for anyone else (except for Jeb) to get any traction.
Hey,Adjoran, I like drama and the unknown like anyone else but in modern politics it takes 2+ years to get a campaign under way and viable.
In addition dark horses simply do not come in and win the GOP nomination. The names you quote Eisenhower and Nixon were well known and Bush 43 was ths son of Bush 41. Notice I mentioned Jeb as the exception to the rule.
But forget Christie, Jindal, Pence, Barbour, Thune etc-there is no room at the top for them. Witness this poll which is the topic of this thread.
technopeasant on July 26, 2010 at 4:39 AM
Here is how much the Left fears Palin:
From The Daily Caller:
These are e-mails and quote of journolists after Palin’s convention speech on Sept. 3, 2008
Ari Melber of the Nation:
“The speech is gangbusters. Her tone is pitch perfect.”
Adele Stan of Media Consortium:
“Palin is golden.”
Michael Tomasky of the Guardian
“People get a hold of yourselves. it’s a very good speech with good lines. But there’s very little substance.”
From Jonathan Strong of the Daily Caller
Palin’s speech had been remarkably effective. This troubled members of Journolist. On Sept. 8, 2008 five days after Palin’s national debut, some members of the group discussed producing coordinated propaganda designed to wound Palin and boost Obama.
Ed Kilgore of Progressive Policy institute
“It requires no particular strategic genius or message coordination to recognize that we and the Obama campaign have the next 2 months to demonstrate that McCain and Palin represent the status quo party, the status quo ideology and status quo policies.”
Todd Gitlin Columbia University Granduate School of Journalism
“On the question of liberals coordinating, what the hell’s wrong with some critical mass of liberal bloggers & journalists saying the following among themselves:
“McCain lies about his maverick status…Palin lies about her maverick status. McCain has a wretched temperament. McCain is a warmonger. Palin belongs to a crackpot church and feels warmly about a crackpot party that trashes America. These people are cynical. These people are taking you for a ride. These people are fakes. These people love Bush…philosophize with a hammer…”
technopeasant on July 26, 2010 at 5:38 AM
From journolist we can conclude:
1)The American public was hoodwinked by Leftist journalists that strongly influenced Obama getting elected.
2)A conspiracy of lies and distortions was concocted by these Leftist journalists to bring Palin down.
3)Apparently these folks see nothing unethical about what they did.
4)Journolist is simply a preview of what is going to happen in the midterms and 2012.
5)Palin will be better prepared to deal with it this time because she won’t have the albatross of McCain’s handlers around her neck this time.
technopeasant on July 26, 2010 at 5:54 AM
Well, I’ll just say this. Palin is helping put McCain back in the Senate; McCain is Obama’s best chance to get amnesty passed. Amnesty gets passed, we’re hosed. And I won’t vote for her should that occur, even though at that point it won’t matter any more.
Beyond that, the other GOP hopefuls are pathetic enough I’d support her because there isn’t anyone else worth a cr*p.
austinnelly on July 26, 2010 at 10:17 AM
I’d prefer any of the bottom 5 over any of the top 4.
hawksruleva on July 26, 2010 at 10:38 AM
We need to teach Americans to not be so gullible.
hawksruleva on July 26, 2010 at 10:39 AM
Come on, hawk!
Sarah’s terrific–give her a chance!
And I do apologize for my lack of love for your Army, seeming to prefer the Marines!
My dad served proudly in the Army during WWII!
Jenfidel on July 26, 2010 at 10:42 AM
hawksruleva on July 26, 2010 at 10:39 AM
Look at the history of the GOP, they don’t go “maverick” and pick dark horses to become the nominee of their party.
They prefer prominent military men or politicians, sitting VP’s or the one who finished second in the previous primary cycle (Mitt or Huck depending on whichi unit of measurement you use): Eisenhower, Nixon, Ford, Reagan, Bush 41, Dole, Bush 43, McCain.
I hate to disillusion you but the GOP is a very traditional party in picking its nominee. Now having said that Palin falls into a special category. Although she was not a sitting VP, she did run as a VP candidate. Now in case you think I am exaggerating her credentials I am fully aware that since the inception of the current two party system of Republicans and Democrats since 1854, no first-time losing VP candidate has ever gone on to win their party’s nomination in the next presidential election cycle, let alone gone on to be POTUS in the next 4 years. So yes I know Palin is bucking the odds, but she is also bucking the odds that a woman will lead the GOP into the general election. But look above at the topic on this thread-Palin leads among Republicans according to this poll by double-digits and leads Romney by 7 points among those who identify with the Tea Party movement.
Now you might ask how is that possible, and how is possible that PPP in its July poll showed Palin tied with Obama in a head to head matchup at 46-46? Could it be that she is gaining momentum with Republicans and conservatives? Could she now be perceived as electable now?
Would your opinion on Palin change if you knew she could blow the Messiah away in 2012? Currently Obama is polling around 38% with WHITE voters and Palin in the PPP poll was beating Obama 55% to 36%, a whopping 19 points. How much do want to bet over the next 2 years that Palin could extend her support among WHITE voters to anywhere between 60%-62%. If she did that she would rout the Messiah, a la Reagan.
technopeasant on July 26, 2010 at 11:02 AM
Disagree 100%.
Mitch “Surrender to Democrats on all social issues” Daniels is about the worst candidate of all; right down there with the Huckster.
Pawlenty is just a horrible candidate. Probably been the one running hardest for the nomination so far; and yet only gets 1% of the vote. Not to mention his love for Cap & Tax schemes.
The rest are all insider RINOs or worse.
Norwegian on July 26, 2010 at 11:14 AM
Too many and too few. I know exactly ONE lefty who made good on his promises to emigrate if Bush was reelected.
Dark-Star on July 26, 2010 at 11:17 AM
Norweigan on July 26, 2010 at 11:14 AM
I am not a Newt Gingrich fan but objectively how can you say that Daniels, Pawlenty, Pence or Thune would be a better candidate than the former speaker of the House?
To me, folks are living in fantasyland if they think any of these dark horses is going to get the GOP nomination.
Having said that I don’t really know why folks are down on the top 4. The recent PPP h/h poll against Obama shows all of the top 4 at least tied with the Messiah and at least 19 points ahead of him with WHITE voters. I mean what more do you want now? Obama is reeling in the polls and the top 4 are extremely competitive. If they weren’t I would be the first one to say that there may an opening for a dark horse, but these circumstances say no way, Jose!
technopeasant on July 26, 2010 at 11:28 AM
Norweigan when I said “you” I meant to write “anybody” with regards to the dark horses. Sorry if you misunderstood. My apologies.
technopeasant on July 26, 2010 at 11:41 AM
No problem :-)
I agree with your assessment 100%. There will not be any “dark horse” candidate in 2012. Each election cycle, the cost to enter and stay competitive becomes increasingly prohibitive for unknown candidates.
Besides, none of the potential “dark horse” candidates have the charisma or political skills needed to make a break-through.
2012 will be a race between the top 4, all the polls have been very consistent in that regard.
Norwegian on July 26, 2010 at 12:07 PM
Personally as an independent(Libertarian), I would like to see the Republican ticket being Sarah Palin(R) with Wayne Allen Root(L) as her running mate. She has executive political experience as a reformer, he’s a business executive who is HUGE on reform. That would be the right ticket to take this country back to a Constitutional Republic…..Take a look at Root, he’s worth it…To me it’s not just about winning, it’s about returning this country to it’s former greatness and running commies out of town permanently…..
adamsmith on July 26, 2010 at 3:11 PM
adamsmith on July 26, 2010 at 3:11 PM
Jeb Bush is campaigning for Rand Paul today. I speculated on another thread that he may be vieing for the Libertarian vote as well to reduce Palin’s support? What do you think?
technopeasant on July 26, 2010 at 3:18 PM
To be on the Republican ticket it helps to, ya know, actually be a Republican.
Brian1972 on July 26, 2010 at 3:19 PM
New Facebook today:
Brian1972 on July 26, 2010 at 4:19 PM
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