Rasmussen: Paul up 8 in Kentucky
posted at 1:36 pm on July 21, 2010 by Ed Morrissey
Democrats think they have a rare opportunity to steal a red-state Senate seat in Kentucky after Republicans nominated Rand Paul to run against Jack Conway, but so far, it still looks like a longshot. Rasmussen reports that the polling has stabilized in Kentucky after the primaries, with Paul bouncing around just below 50%, but Conway stuck in the low 40s:
It’s the same story in Kentucky’s race for U.S. Senate again this month. Republican Rand Paul continues to hold a modest lead over Democrat Jack Conway.
The latest Rasmussen Reports statewide telephone survey of Likely Voters shows Paul picking up 49% of the vote, while Conway earns support from 41%. Four percent (4%) would prefer another candidate, while six percent (6%) more are not sure.
Support for both Paul has been at 49% for three straight surveys while Conway has held steady at 41% or 42%.
With the exception of a big bounce immediately after his primary win, Paul has received between 46% and 50% support in match-ups with Conway since January. During the same period, Conway has earned between 34% and 42% of the vote.
Paul had a momentary stumble after his primary win, but seems to have improved his media performances since then. He’s riding some powerful tailwinds at the moment. Only 9% of Kentucky’s likely voters think the economy is good or excellent, with 50% calling it “poor.” Almost two-thirds (64%) believe the US is still in recession. Barack Obama gets an anemic 42/58 approval rating, and the best news Conway gets is that Obama won’t be on the 2010 ticket.
However, the view of Democratic policies is especially poor in Kentucky, and that relates directly to Congress. Asked whether the stimulus package created jobs, only 23% said yes, while 58% said no. Six in ten voters want tax cuts to create jobs, while only 16% want more government spending to fix the problems in the economy. If Rand Paul can turn this election into a referendum on the agenda pushed by Harry Reid and Nancy Pelosi, he could wind up blowing Conway out of the water.
Blowback
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It’s not the KY race I am worried about. How about Nevada and that jerk Harry Reid spending millions of dollars to bring down Angle’s numbers? Let’s talk about that race.
taney71 on July 21, 2010 at 1:38 PM
If the Ruling class doesn’t like him (RAND PAUL) then I’m for him.
IF his election alone results in auditing the FED then his election would be worth it.
PappyD61 on July 21, 2010 at 1:40 PM
Rand Paul would have higher numbers if he drop some of that Libertarian arrogance.
Machiavelli Hobbes on July 21, 2010 at 1:41 PM
“Would drop”
/Sorry
Machiavelli Hobbes on July 21, 2010 at 1:41 PM
You don’t know crap.
NoNails on July 21, 2010 at 1:45 PM
I truly wish that would happen, but there are way too many people hip deep into that fiscal mess in DC and they will never ever let it happen. And most of them are not elected representatives.
Johnnyreb on July 21, 2010 at 1:45 PM
Rand Paul will easily win by a 15% blowout, Sharron Angle will win as well.
It’s the RINO Republicans who has messed up winable Senate races in Connecticut, etc.
That being said, I think people like Russ Feingold and Patty Murray are toast as well. At this point in time, a GOP takeover of the Senate seems within reach.
Norwegian on July 21, 2010 at 1:48 PM
^ By RINO you mean that South Carolina Senator who just voted for Kagan, right [not going to say his name]?
taney71 on July 21, 2010 at 1:51 PM
Is Democrat Conway running with the Arizona Democrats and “Oh that Obama man, he’s so awful!” ? I saw him with Olbermann and he dared not play that card (back then).
Marcus on July 21, 2010 at 1:51 PM
Democrats think they have a rare opportunity to steal a red-state Senate seat in Kentucky after Republicans nominated Rand Paul to run against Jack Conway, but so far, it still looks like a longshot.
===========================
With Shirley Sherrod in the limelight,I bet,the Country
Club crack will be back,in some form or shape!!
canopfor on July 21, 2010 at 1:56 PM
I think lesson here is that Kentucky is a deep red state and this is a red tide year.
But Obama won Nevada by 12. Angle is not is the same boat. Also, NH has been trending heavily Blue. And states like Delaware and Oregon are deep Blue. If Rand Paul cant break double digits in a state like Kentucky, how would he be doing in a true Blue or Purple state.
swamp_yankee on July 21, 2010 at 2:01 PM
This is despite being smearing by the Lexington KY McClathy newspaper nearly every day. This past Sunday they tried painting him as a racist [http://www.kentucky.com/2010/07/18/1353885/race-seldom-a-top-issue-in-kentucky.html?storylink=pluck_commented].
rocinaterider on July 21, 2010 at 2:08 PM
Gramby Pamby.
Akzed on July 21, 2010 at 2:11 PM
Thank you, swamp_yankee, for your concern. We have it from here on out. We don’t need your help. We have yet began to fight and we’re holding steady. When the real fighting begins, you can hide behind your wife’s skirts.
susieq2cute on July 21, 2010 at 2:12 PM
First of all, he has no “L”ibertarian arrogance. To whatever extent he has arrogance, it is Republican arrogance. Your arguments might carry more weight if you spent some time learning the proper rules for capitalization.
Secondly, you may like Casper Milquetoast candidates, but some of us prefer our candidates taking pride in the fact that they are on the right side of the argument.
JohnGalt23 on July 21, 2010 at 2:15 PM
I wouldn’t even call him a RINO. He’s more of a DIRC (Democrat In Republican Clothes)
ConservativePartyNow on July 21, 2010 at 2:19 PM
Go back to writing your Ayn Rand slashfic, tool.
Machiavelli Hobbes on July 21, 2010 at 2:27 PM
Then what are you waiting for. The elections are only three months away. Instead of playing internet tough guy, you can join me in the trenches anytime.
But I’m not going to let internet yahoos ruin the NH GOP primary. Rubio is down in the polls. Angle is losing. And Paul should be polling much better. Its time for the self anointed “real” conservatives to join the fight and start fighting the real enemy and stop the circular firing squad.
swamp_yankee on July 21, 2010 at 2:37 PM
As compared to Niccolo Machiavelli/Thomas Hobbes slashfic?
Sorry, but of the three I would take Ayn Rand any day.
Norwegian on July 21, 2010 at 2:42 PM
Wit sharp as a tennis ball.
JohnGalt23 on July 21, 2010 at 2:49 PM
I’m not going to base my suppositions on suspect polls. I go to a lot of blogs, not always conservative. I see the anger out there. A tidal wave is coming in November and the libs are circling the wagons. We can’t let these momentary lapses weigh us down. I’m not going all pessimist this early in the game. That’s all I was saying.
susieq2cute on July 21, 2010 at 2:54 PM
McCain won KY 58-41 in a Democrat year. Any Republican should be winning this race by at least 20%. The fact he’s only up 8% makes me uneasy.
angryed on July 21, 2010 at 3:03 PM
I’ll take a 8-point win in KY and a 2-point win in NV over a 16-point win in KY and a 6-point loss in NV.
Don’t be queasy over KY.
JohnGalt23 on July 21, 2010 at 3:06 PM
If Rasmussen says he is up by 8 … then that really means 4.
Monkei on July 21, 2010 at 3:20 PM
All respect, I look at it differently. Its a republican year, so we’re taking advantage and laying necessary groundwork by putting in anti-establishment, constitutional conservatives. Even if these candidates win by a lower margin, this is the year of all years that they can win and we can unseat both dems and GOP establishment hacks.
Firefly_76 on July 21, 2010 at 3:21 PM
The biggest question this cycle to me is, of what party are the Secy’s of State in each of the respective states? That, and the prevalence of the Dhimmi
Get OutRig The Vote operations on the ground?In the Case of Angle, if because of Rep enthusiasm and motivation were to garner a 4-5% turnout over Reid, due the above, she goes down in flames.
If Paul manages to retain a 7-10% edge over Conway, and with the traditionally small footprint of the DNC apparatus in KY, I think he’ll squeeze out a win of 4-6pts.
Similarly, if Rossi doesn’t start posting some serious gains in polls in WA, he is in very deep do-do. The DNC apparatchiks are every bit as entrenched and sleazy as what handed Franken the MN seat over Coleman.
In SD Noem is shoo-in, its a done deal, same with Hoeven.
Rubio is in the fight of his life with Crist, but I cannot poosibly see how such a blatant schmuck could win this race, at some point the reality of being played such a shameless opportunistic ass has to hit Floridians upside the like a 2X4, Crist goes down.
Historically WI is the most progressive state north of the Mason/Dixon line, the same past notions that led MS to name a city Progress, MS. goes back just as far in WI and thr proximity to the Chicago Machine makes this race troublesome for Johnson over Feingold, he’s new and for the most part unknown so he’s really going to have to break-out by a significant margin to have a chance. The good news is as determined as Dagny Taggart. A pure Randian and has stated when asked how much of his fortune he is willing to pile into the race to win, without a seconds pause replied “all of it!”
For good or ill, McCain keeps his AZ seat, the blowhard upstart has already begun his deathspiral.
MO has much of the same problems for us as in WI, only perhaps more so as Blunt cannot capture the outsider label as well as Johnson, the Carnahan has become a family institution and the Secy of State, the Atty Gen and all the rest of the cogs of state are firmly in the DNC’s pocket. This is a tough row to hoe, I am not hopeful here.
I don’t know how I went off on this tangent, just kinda got on a roll, for what its worth that’ view from Archimedes workshop. Pardon me for getting long winded.
Archimedes on July 21, 2010 at 3:37 PM
Well, of course he has stabilized. His handlers have been keeping him away from microphones, and forcing him to keep his lunatic fringe mouth shut.
`
`
I suppose all you diehard Randoids share his opposition to the invasion of Iraq, maintaining bases outside the USA, etc., too? Oh, sure, I know he’s equivocated when it became politically expedient, but he made literally hundreds of impassioned speeches on the subjects while campaigning for Daddy, it never sounded strained at all.
Adjoran on July 21, 2010 at 3:39 PM
Lindsay is a “LIAR” Liberal Impersonating A Republican
gary4205 on July 21, 2010 at 3:46 PM
The last poll I saw both Rossi and Didier were ahead of Patty Murray. The way the Washington Primary works, the top two vote getters, regardless of party, face off in the general. If they keep this up, there will be zero democrats running in Washington, in the general.
Obviously, this “free-for-all” deal was designed to have two democrats and no Republicans. Ooops.
gary4205 on July 21, 2010 at 3:51 PM
You’ll never have to apologize to me for being long-winded… after all, I don’t see bandwidth quotas in the posting rules… as long as you are saying something worthwhile. But, if you will pardon me, I think you are being a bit Eeyore-ish.
It’s a GOP year. If anything, GOP candidates will outperform polls, not under-perform them. Outside urban areas, Dems’ ability to cheat votes really is overblown. And the SecStates’ ability to affect elections will only go so far, and for the most part before Election Day, not on election Day.
Outside of FLA (which is a separate case), we’re playing the game on enemy turf. We’re seriously talking about taking WI, WA, and CA, all Dem strongholds. We will take Joe Biden’s old seat, and we could very well take Obama’s old seat. And we’re looking at unseating a Dem Majority Leader, something I would have told you was impossible 18 months ago.
Things are looking pretty good to me.
As far as FLA goes, this is an example of why we shouldn’t be so hard on moderate Republicans, especially popular ones. I don’t hold Charlie Crist blameless in this; far from it. I think it was absolutely shameless the way he bolted the party. That being said, we are looking at blowing a Senate race that should be a slam dunk for us. I still maintain (despite popular opinion here) that the FLA-GOP would do itself, the state and the nation as a whole a big favor to swallow their pride, and do whatever is necessary to bring Charlie Crist back into the fold.
JohnGalt23 on July 21, 2010 at 3:55 PM
Funny… Rand has been keeping his media appointments lately… unlike some Democratic candidates I could mention.
I can’t speak for all of them, but I know that, much like his father, he had the wisdom to oppose it long before politicians and pundits were saying “If I had only known then what I know now”.
Yeah, now that you mention it, I am sick and tired of bankrupting our country to defend the world from itself so they can retire at 50 while spitting in our collective eye. If you don’t at least question the wisdom of that, I think you aren’t paying close enough attention.
Hundreds of speeches? Literally???
Are you sure you meant “literally”, and not “hyperbolically”? Because that really sounds like hyperbole to me.
And did you hear all of these “literally hundreds” of speeches, so as to be able to judge correctly that it “never” sounded strained? Call me a skeptic, but I doubt it.
JohnGalt23 on July 21, 2010 at 4:07 PM
This is kinda crappy for Kentucky.
Speedwagon82 on July 21, 2010 at 4:22 PM
I don’t think so. Jim Bunning won this seat by a margin of 0.5% in 1998 and re-election by 2% in 2004. And 2004 was a pretty good year for the GOP. Heck, even Mitch McConnell only won with a 5% margin last time he ran.
Rand Paul will win this seat comfortably and with a much better margin than his predecessor.
Norwegian on July 21, 2010 at 4:56 PM
Every time he opens his mouth, stoopid falls out.
Like father, like son.
madmonkphotog on July 21, 2010 at 5:19 PM
Yes.
Here is an example of “Libertarian Arrogance”.
Like Marxists, they believe they have all the answers because they read an unreadable, poorly designed book by some hatchet faced hack-job of a writer.
To you; economics trumps everything. So what if workers are underage? So what if Blacks have no rights in certain parts of the country? So what if a few rich men own slaves?
“Da Gubmint is BAD!” HURR DURR!
Seriously, though. You are following a failed ideology. Tell me how well did Ron Paul do in 2008? How well did Goldwater do in 1964?
I’m sure neither of you will answer me.
You’ll probably just continue patting yourselves on the back while rubbing one out to the confederate flag and listening to your extensive Alex Jones collection.
And I bet “Norwegian” would prefer Ayn Rand. Since she reminds you of your mom and that’s the only woman who would ever sleep with you willingly.
Machiavelli Hobbes on July 21, 2010 at 5:34 PM
Rand Paul can win in a deep-red state like Kentucky.
Sharron Angle is not the best person to beat Harry Reid, but she did win the primary. Nevada is dominated by Las Vegas and its suburbs, so this is the crowd she needs to please.
Not so sure that New Hampshire is trending heavily Blue. Although some libs might spill over the border from Mass seeking lower taxes, Kelly Ayotte (recently endorsed by Mama Grizzly herself) is running well ahead of Paul Hodes.
Oregon has been Blue for a long time, but Republicans have a good chance of picking up a Delaware Senate seat with Mike Castle. A bit of a RINO, but better than a Democrat.
Recent polls have also shown that Republicans have a decent shot against Patty Murray in Washington and Russ Feingold in Wisconsin.
No, Rand Paul couldn’t win an election Mass, but Scott Brown did; Rand Paul probably couldn’t win in DE, WA, or WI, which is why other Republican candidates who CAN win are running there.
Steve Z on July 21, 2010 at 5:42 PM
This is my point. The “real” conservative movement is overreaching. Angle wasa reach in NV. But my real point is some self-designated “real” conservatives are still pushing Ovide or Bender in NH. Kelly is fine. They are creating fires where none are needed. Ovide got smoked when he ran for governor and Congress. And picking Norah O’Donnell in Delaware is the equivelent of throwing in the towel. I’m fine with Norton in CO too.
Being a solid conservative is one thing. Being a quality candidate something different. Conservatives are pushing the envelope a little too much nominating some underwhelming candidates.
Yes, they can get away with it in Utah and Kentucky for now. But that fervor shouldnt carry over in the NH primary. Too dangerous for very little reward.
swamp_yankee on July 21, 2010 at 5:52 PM
While it’s true that KY is a red state when it comes to presidential elections, registered Dems outnumber registered Repubs by sixty percent. There have been only two Republican governors in the last forty years. The senatorial races are usually won by 5% or so. The two largest papers are strongly left-leaning and rarely offer anything positive about Republicans. Paul will do just fine.
NoNails on July 21, 2010 at 6:20 PM
Personaly, as a registered KY Republican, as long as Rand has any lead in the polls I’m not going to vote for him. I hope that he wins over Conway, who is as big a political hack as you ever saw, but Rand’s still a GD nut. His dad’s a GD nut. The Paulbots from out of state that make up the core of his campaign workers are GD nuts.
I’m not going to vote for Conway under any circumstances, but the only way I’ll pull the lever for Rand Paul is if the last batch of polls shows Conway with a small lead. My optimal election day scenario is for Rand to pull out a win so small that the after party of recounts and lawsuits makes Florida 2000 seem like a student council election. I hope he doesn’t get seated until next July.
Why? Because I figure the last thing a nut like Rand Paul needs is the idea that he has any kind of mandate. If he only wins in a squeaker and then has all the ambition and libertardian nonsense ground out of him by the glacial pace and hoary traditions of the Senate, he may eventually end up being a decent Senator. But for now he needs to be humbled. Badly.
Dukeboy01 on July 21, 2010 at 7:26 PM
Agreed.
Believe us, we in KY are not. Conway won’t show his face in public.
Granted, Conway has the papers running interference for him, but no one reads rags like the Lexington Herald Leader, they are practically begging in supermarkets to get people to buy subscriptions.
Then again, maybe if the LHL didn’t pull stunts like printing six Rand Paul hit pieces in one single issue, and actually tried reporting the news, they wouldn’t be begging like Oliver Twist asking for more.
RobertInLexington on July 21, 2010 at 7:27 PM
Dukeboy01 is the reason we had a RINO like McCain as the presidential nominee in 2008.
RightXBrigade on July 21, 2010 at 11:41 PM
Paul is a Constitutional, limited government conservative. To be true to his positions is to piss off both parties. Angle in Nevada and Joe Miller in Alaska also have strong credentials. America needs to study the Constitution like never before and having a small group of Constitutional conservatives would serve that purpose. The more the media yells kook, the more the candidate gets to push back on stimulus/bailout/healthcare/financial reform to explain the principles of limited enumerated powers. Limited government does not mean no government, but it does mean that government has its limits. This President and this Congress do not believe that there are such limits rather they believe that government needs to do more for people. Such a contrast is HUGE.
Like the Sherrod story, it should not be about Sherrod or her firing or Fox News, the story is that Sherrod has come farther than the First Lady who believes that the NAACP needs to “intensify” its efforts. Should the Black Panthers bring guns to the polling places next time?
Angry Dumbo on July 22, 2010 at 8:01 AM
We’ve seen all the shenanigans of “new” ballots that turned up in King County (Seattle) when Christine Gregoire was a few hundred votes down. Rossi does need a significant lead over Murray to win, but a Rasmussen poll did show him up by 3 points. It’s winnable, but it will be close.
Oops! In South Dakota, Noem is running for the at-large HOUSE seat now held by Stephanie Herseth-Sandlin. The incumbent Republican Senator is John Thune, who is running unopposed for re-election, after narrowly defeating Tom Daschle in 2004.
What is a pure Randian? A follower of Ayn Rand, or of Rand Paul? If Rand Paul is a chip off the old block, that will never win in Wisconsin, and while Ayn Rand has strongly influenced many die-hard conservatives, it’s not clear that her ideas can win elections in the middle. Ron Johnson from Wisconsin (hey, that rhymes) could win this–one Rasmussen poll shows him up by 1%, and two others show him down by 2%–close but winnable.
Both the Blunt and Carnahan families are “institutions” in Missouri, and both candidates are sons of past or present Governors. Voters tempted to vote for Carnahan might wonder whether he’ll follow in the footsteps of his father (who was elected posthumously to the Senate) or his mother, whose term as an appointed Senator was full of incompetence, to be replaced by (Jim) Talent. You’re right that the Dem smear machine is alive and well in Missouri, after vicious campaign claiming that Jim Talent wanted Parkinson’s victims to die because he didn’t support the use of embryonic stem cells.
Steve Z on July 22, 2010 at 10:17 AM
Libertarians are the Twilight fans of Politics!
Machiavelli Hobbes on July 22, 2010 at 1:09 PM