Whoa: Dems jump out to six-point lead on generic ballot in Gallup

posted at 9:27 pm on July 19, 2010 by Allahpundit

It has to be an anomaly. Doesn’t it?

With Republicans’ and Democrats’ support for their own party’s candidates holding steady in the low 90s this past week, independents are primarily responsible for Democrats’ improved positioning. Thirty-nine percent of independents favor the Democratic candidate in their district, up from 34% — although slightly more, 43%, still favor the Republican…

It’s possible the increased voter support for Democratic candidates this past week is linked with the Wall Street regulatory reform bill that passed in the U.S. Senate last Thursday, July 15. The financial reform bill is the second-biggest piece of legislation to get through Congress this year, after healthcare reform, and it enjoyed majority support. According to a USA Today/Gallup poll in June, 55% of Americans were in favor of legislation expanding government regulation of financial institutions — including 72% of Democrats and 56% of independents. Only Republicans were generally opposed.

Huh. I thought that the public had completely tuned out the financial reform bill. I suppose, from a pure messaging standpoint, the Dems can do worse than “We’re sticking it to the fatcats!” even if no one’s quite sure just how they’re sticking it to them.

The gruesome numbers:

I hope this is a financial reform bounce since then it’s bound to evaporate within a week or two. But is it? The House passed FinRef on June 30; as you can see from the graph, the Dems were still trending downwards after the first of the month. Then the bounce starts — but that’s not because the Senate passed FinRef. That didn’t happen until July 15. So … what’s the bounce for?

Or, a better question: In light of the graph below, does it really matter?

Makes no sense. Even if it’s true that indies are responsible for most of the Dems’ bounce, if this really is a reaction to financial reform passing, you should see a sharp spike in Democratic enthusiasm too. Instead, flat. Meanwhile, in the span of one polling cycle, GOP enthusiasm is up double digits and approaching post-ObamaCare levels. Is FinRef that unpopular on our side of the aisle? I’m tempted to throw the whole poll out as an outlier, especially since Rasmussen’s latest generic-ballot poll actually detected a small gain for the GOP. (And yes, I’m aware of the Rasmussen “house effect” in generic-ballot polling. Even so, if there really is a Dem bounce out there, it should show up to some extent in Ras too.)

Via RCP, here’s Mark Halperin on “Morning Joe” explaining why, per his column today, it is indeed panic time for Democrats. And maybe not just in House and Senate races either. Yowza.

Update: Alternate explanation, one that’s far more ominous for the GOP since it’s bound to recur as an issue: Is this a reaction to Republicans resisting new money for unemployment benefits?

Visit msnbc.com for breaking news, world news, and news about the economy


Related Posts:

Breaking on Hot Air

Blowback

Note from Hot Air management: This section is for comments from Hot Air's community of registered readers. Please don't assume that Hot Air management agrees with or otherwise endorses any particular comment just because we let it stand. A reminder: Anyone who fails to comply with our terms of use may lose their posting privilege.

Trackbacks/Pings

Trackback URL

Comments

Comment pages: 1 2

I’m not buying it.

SueM on July 20, 2010 at 5:52 AM

Is this a reaction to Republicans resisting new money for unemployment benefits?

according to morning joe, yep…they think the gop are absolutely stupid for blocking the benefits…not one person will bring up PAYGO for cripes sakes…

cmsinaz on July 20, 2010 at 6:10 AM

I don’t pay attention to Gallup polls any more. Like the mainstream old media, Gallup is not reliable and thoroughly iunfected with a leftist agenda.

If I want a good poll, I check out Rasmussen. Sort of like FOX News.

Phil Byler on July 20, 2010 at 6:22 AM

Republican Party is suicidal. They continue to let Dems control the message on unemployment benefits and Bush tax cuts. Sunday talk shows were dismall display of Rs media savvy, as they all talked about unchecked spending in general, beating the national-debt-horse again, instead of saying “we offered our own bill that would extend benefits without increasing the deficit, but Dems just want to keep spending on everything they can.”

FalseProfit on July 20, 2010 at 6:52 AM

FalseProfit on July 20, 2010 at 6:52 AM

this is what worries me if we do get control again…they will want to play nice and not be as agressive as the dems while they are in control…

cmsinaz on July 20, 2010 at 6:53 AM

Oh come on, and the Republicans are up 9 in Rasmussens. I think it is probably an anomaly.

Terrye on July 20, 2010 at 6:59 AM

Republican Party is suicidal. They continue to let Dems control the message on unemployment benefits and Bush tax cuts.

False Prophet:

Let?? The Republican party is suicidal because the media is biased? I think people are smarter than you give them credit for, if they were this easily manipulated Obamacare would not be as unpopular as it is and Obama would be in the 70s on approval rating. None of the other polls show anything like this for Democrats on generic polling…it might be worthwhile to wait and see if this is really a problem or just a polling mistake.

Terrye on July 20, 2010 at 7:02 AM

In fact if you look at RCP the Republicans are still ahead overall because they are ahead in the ABC poll and Bloomberg as well as Rasmussens.

Terrye on July 20, 2010 at 7:08 AM

I understand there is a somewhat more reliable coming in about 103 days and a wakeup.

CC

CapedConservative on July 20, 2010 at 7:10 AM

The Democrats message the last month or so?
All Republicans are racists and the Republican party is controlled by the racists in the racist Tea Party.
That has been the Democrats coordinated message from top to bottom.

albill on July 20, 2010 at 7:25 AM

Recent polls:

GALLUP: ADULTS
Time: ADULTS

RAS: Likely Voters
Bloomberg: Likely Voters
Fox: Registered Voters

Time and Gallup have Dems up, the others have Reps up. Any poll of general adults will skew Dem. Always has. In presidential elections it matters somewhat, in mid-terms it matters a hell of a lot since so few people vote in mid-terms. I would personally not even include polls of adults in any average/analysis for 2010.

angryed on July 20, 2010 at 7:25 AM

the reason that these polls disturb me is that they follow the money trend. For example, incumbent Dem congressmen in Virginia–many in very, very vulnerable seats, have a tremendous fundraising advantage over their Republican challengers. These Republican challengers, should by all accounts, walk away with these races.

The big Dem money sources: unions, Soros, Pelosi-PAC & wherever in GAZA that Bambi gets his money have funneled huge amounts of cash to these Dems.

but there is another problem. The conservatives aren’t ponying up money as they may have in the past. First,they don’t have as much thanks to the economy, but Two, everyone is on a TEA party purity kick. Their attitude–we’ll get rid of these Dems in 2012 when we have a really wacky candidate that has no clue how to run a campaign but claims to be a TEA party member.

kelley in virginia on July 20, 2010 at 7:35 AM

http://www.time.com/time/politics/article/0,8599,2004646,00.html

There is more truth in this article than the poll used for this post… Were going to see a lot of this crap over the next 100 days. Democrats are desperate, that’s a fact. Desperate and cornered by their own failures; should make for some record setting acts of pure scum behavior.

Keemo on July 20, 2010 at 7:54 AM

Unemployment benefits are already at two years, for goodness sake. (Or “99 weeks”, take your pick). I saw a segment on Fox yesterday with two women crowing about how great “funemployment” is, how they love exploring their hobbies, how they enjoy sleeping in.

Yes, the unemployed NEED benefits, for sure. And yes, in this economy, they’re going to need them longer. I’m not arguing that.

But when is enough umemployment enough, already? Three years? Four? Five? And when it goes up and up so that jobs stall even more, will we ALL be on “funemployment”?

Grace_is_sufficient on July 20, 2010 at 7:59 AM

http://volokh.com/2010/07/19/chronicle-review-admits-bellesiless-story-is-false-blames-student-not-bellesiles/

Dishonesty such as complete fabrication of a story by members of Congress; yep that really happened with the phony racist chants at a TP rally that never actually took place. The left and their media will do anything in an attempt to keep power, including getting a site such as hotair to run fabricated polls in an attempt to quell voter turn out.

Democrats suddenly up by six points; laughable and an insult to our intelligence.

Keemo on July 20, 2010 at 8:02 AM

When your poll sample uses 10% more dems than Rep. and 70% of your Independent sample leans liberal you get the poll you want.Gallup a one time respectable poll now nothing more than a arm of the DNC.

thmcbb on July 20, 2010 at 8:24 AM

Thing is, there’s still time for the GOP to turn it around. DD

Darvin Dowdy on July 20, 2010 at 8:47 AM

How about this : Everybody gets cheerfully patriotic around July 4 and that favors the party in power.

So does having your local sports franchise win the championship, btw. See, e.g. John Lindsay, NY Mets, 1969 NYC Mayoralty race.

Seth Halpern on July 20, 2010 at 8:55 AM

I’m not buying it.

SueM on July 20, 2010 at 5:52 AM

I’m definitely not buying it!
But I’ll bet that Gallup and the DNC are praying like hell that dumber people will.
It’s a push poll (Yawn).

Jenfidel on July 20, 2010 at 9:17 AM

Democrats suddenly up by six points; laughable and an insult to our intelligence.

Keemo on July 20, 2010 at 8:02 AM

Indeed.
And it’s designed to dishearten Republicans, Indys and Tea Party folks and get them to stay home so these reputed DemocRats can stampede to victory in NOvember.

Jenfidel on July 20, 2010 at 9:19 AM

Their attitude–we’ll get rid of these Dems in 2012 when we have a really wacky candidate that has no clue how to run a campaign but claims to be a TEA party member.

kelley in virginia on July 20, 2010 at 7:35 AM

See Angle, Sharron and Paul, Rand as exhibits a and b

angryed on July 20, 2010 at 9:58 AM

The Republicans are sack-less. They refuse to stand up with a message and take a stand on principles, instead they are choosing their message to be “We are not Dems” ridiculous. With all the uncertanty right now…in everything…all the Republicans need to do is clearly control their own message, stand strong and walk across the finish……but will they?

Koa on July 20, 2010 at 10:05 AM

It’s like the definition of insanity: keep doing the same thing over and over and expect different results. The democrats and their flunkies in the media get a hold of the messages the republicans try to communicate and twist and distort – if reality and facts are not to their liking they will create their own and push and push until the gullible fall for it. Happens every time! And it works because we’ve had democrat majorities forever and they’ve screwed up plenty and they keep getting elected to screw up their screw ups. It’s mind-boggling! They’re dangerously clever in that they will totally ignore anything negative and deragatory against democrats but amplify and magnify anything about republicans/conservatives no matter how obviously false. Case in point: the racism that really exists in the democrat party but being slandered against the Tea Party.

mozalf on July 20, 2010 at 10:28 AM

Is this a reaction to Republicans resisting new money for unemployment benefits?

They are getting hit for opposing one of the causes of unemployment?

Count to 10 on July 20, 2010 at 10:41 AM

Meanwhile, in the span of one polling cycle, GOP enthusiasm is up double digits and approaching post-ObamaCare levels. Is FinRef that unpopular on our side of the aisle? I’m tempted to throw the whole poll out as an outlier, especially since Rasmussen’s latest generic-ballot poll actually detected a small gain for the GOP.

Rasmussen has generic ballot at 45R / 36D, up from 44R / 38D last week. Latest Senate polls have Rossi LEADING Patty Murray in WA (3 points) and Johnson LEADING Feingold in WI (1 point). Even in CT, McMahon has closed the gap by 10 points against Bloomberg, who now leads 53/40 instead of 56/33.

Where did Gallup find this sample–in San Francisco?

Steve Z on July 20, 2010 at 10:43 AM

The poll is probably an anomaly. Remember, we have not seen this kind of anger in the populace before. My guess is the opposition is totally tuned out (i.e., not even responding to polls). Pollsters have very little historic data to detect large and dramatic changes. If they think everything is static and there is no impact on people engaging in the polls they are being naive.

I expect this ‘bounce’ will be totally gone by the end of summer. When we all go back to work (those who have jobs) and face another school year, the depth of our hole will once again hit us in the face.

AJStrata on July 20, 2010 at 10:44 AM

mozalf on July 20, 2010 at 10:28 AM

That’s not really a definition of insanity, by the way, just Einstein complaining about the randomness of quantum mechanics.

Count to 10 on July 20, 2010 at 10:44 AM

Repub visions of taking over the House with a remote chance of the Senate are totally irrational at this time. The mid term average of seats gained is more realistic given the current dilemma Independents face. While they clearly do not like the current Dems they still loath the current Repub leadership having lived with this crew as second in command before they were shown the door in 2006.

They rode on that bridge and the thought of returning these fools might make them stay home. You think they would have resigned after losing in 06 and 08. But no, party on dude. If anyone is capable of losing in 2010 this crew qualifies. That’s why I would consider the repubs taking over the House a modern miracle.

patrick neid on July 20, 2010 at 11:03 AM

Wanna bet?

What are the numbers behind the numbers?

Did Gallup do as usual and poll considerably more Democrat voters than GOP voters?

I might have to jump on In-Trade and get some good odds/points on the November Congressional elections.

molonlabe28 on July 20, 2010 at 12:16 PM

Oversampling of the D party and left leaning voters will get you that jump AND the low enthusiasm, both. Look to the numbers and break-out by party affiliation for that, as a minor 3% or so change in party and leaning can yield an overall 6% change in the general and the same enthusiasm amount (as that is just a percentage of enthusiasm broken out by PARTY). So while Democrats may like their Congresscritters more, they aren’t any more enthused now than they have been for a few months, and it is that latter that matters.

ajacksonian on July 20, 2010 at 12:52 PM

How many democraps did they poll for this travesty of a poll?

eaglewingz08 on July 20, 2010 at 2:05 PM

You have to be careful with Gallup. They did the same thing with Hillary during the primaries. When a primary was far away, the polls would be fairly accurate. But the closer it got to the day of election, the more Gallup would skew the poll to try and show a bounce in an effort to paint a picture that Obama was gaining. For the two weeks before election, the polls would be skewed even more and there are a lot of people that simply vote for who they think the winner will be.

That poll will revert back. But expect more bounces like that as election day approaches. This is just a test for them to see what effect their skewed poll will have. Gallup was notorious for this.

MrX on July 20, 2010 at 7:03 PM

What was asked ?
Who was it asked of ?
What were the answers?
A poll can be skewd from the start.

ColdWarrior57 on July 20, 2010 at 7:52 PM

Comment pages: 1 2