Murray trails both Republican contenders in WA

posted at 4:12 pm on July 16, 2010 by Ed Morrissey

Is the reliably liberal state of Washington turning red?  Or maybe just tired of hearing how Osama bin Laden opened schools and day care centers?  Either way, Rasmussen’s latest poll of likely voters in the Pacific Northwest shows that it doesn’t make much difference which Republican runs against Patty Murray for her Senate seat, as long as one of them does:

Washington’s Senate race looks increasingly like a referendum on incumbent Democrat Patty Murray with two Republican candidates edging past her this month.

A new Rasmussen Reports telephone survey of Likely Voters in Washington State finds Republican hopefuls Dino Rossi and Clint Didier both earning 48% support in match-ups with Murray. She, in turn, picks up 45% of the vote against the two GOP challengers. Less than 10% of voters in both cases prefer some other candidate in the race or are undecided.

In June, Murray and Rossi were tied as they have been in virtually every survey this year. Since the beginning of the year, Murray has earned 46% to 48% of the vote, while Rossi’s support has ranged from 46% to 49%.

Incumbents that fall short of 50% at this stage of a campaign are considered potentially vulnerable, but worrisome for Murray is that this is her poorest showing of the year. She was reelected to a third term in 2004 with 55% of the vote.

Rossi seems to have the best internals in the long run, but Didier isn’t far behind on any of them, except for female voters.  Rossi only trails Murray among women by four points (45/49), while Didier trails by nine (43/52).  Both Republicans win overwhelmingly among voters under 40, with Rossi narrowly taking the 40s and coming in a virtual tie in the rest, while Didier has virtual ties in all age demos over 39 years of age.

Among independents, both Republicans do well.  Rossi gets a 60/29 split, while Didier gets 57/32.  Both hold roughly the same amount of Republicans and Democrats, so the big partisan question is whether independents will stay on board to vote against the incumbent with either Republican.  That seems pretty likely, since Murray’s favorables among indies is an anemic 34/64, which suggests that Didier’s outcome would be the floor rather than the ceiling for the GOP.  Rossi’s favorability among independents is 67/25, and Didier’s 49/23, with 28% unsure.

Even though Washington has a well-earned reputation for liberal support, the issue numbers tell a different story in 2010.  Majorities favor Arizona’s immigration law (53%) and oppose the DoJ lawsuit against AZ (56%).  The stimulus package that Murray supported doesn’t get any love, either, with 52% saying it didn’t stimulate job growth, and only 30% believing it did.  Fifty-eight percent want tax cuts to stimulate the economy, while only 28% support more government spending.  That doesn’t sound like Patty Murray country any longer, and in November, Washington may put Murray out to pasture.


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Maybe she should remind everyone about the roads, hospitals, and schools Usama Bin Laden has built in Afghanistan while the US and President Obama have done nothing.

borntoraisehogs on July 16, 2010 at 4:15 PM

Washington turning Red? Not in Seattle.

upinak on July 16, 2010 at 4:16 PM

Didier advocates a non-interventionist foreign policy, similar to that of Ron Paul. Didier says: “I subscribe to Jefferson’s view, and favor a non-interventionist philosophy. We need to stop trying to police the world and telling other nations how to manage their affairs. It is depleting our wealth and draining our national spirit. America is a republic; therefore let’s stop trying to spread ‘democracy’.”

Something to keep in mind about Didier. Not surprisingly he was endorsed by Ron Paul. Although very surprisingly he was also endorsed by Palin.

Doughboy on July 16, 2010 at 4:18 PM

An amazing moment in HotAir modern history. This is the elusive cross-post by Ed after Allahpundit starts his shift.

Vincenzo on July 16, 2010 at 4:20 PM

Washington turning Red? Not in Seattle.

upinak on July 16, 2010 at 4:16 PM

Just a different kind of Red. ;-)

Ed Morrissey on July 16, 2010 at 4:20 PM

Oh please oh please oh please oh please.

WitchDoctor on July 16, 2010 at 4:23 PM

This doesn’t make up for the crap that is going on in Nevada. I hate Reid so much I would be willing to give up this seat to get the Nevada one.

taney71 on July 16, 2010 at 4:23 PM

What’ll be interesting is that WA has a state income tax amendment on the ballot this fall. That should bring out the tea party, but it never made sense that WA doesn’t have a state income tax.

TimTebowSavesAmerica on July 16, 2010 at 4:24 PM

There’s only a handful of counties in this state that aren’t red. But, those are the most populous. The rest of ‘em have known for a long time that the “mom in tennis shoes” is one sneaker short of a pair.

Shepherd Lover on July 16, 2010 at 4:25 PM

It’s morning in America.

MassVictim on July 16, 2010 at 4:25 PM

We don’t have an income tax because we have an 8+++% sales tax.

As I heard on local talk radio a while back with regard to the tax proposal, according to Olympia we don’t have a spending problem, we have a tax problem. Maddening.

WitchDoctor on July 16, 2010 at 4:25 PM

What’ll be interesting is that WA has a state income tax amendment on the ballot this fall. That should bring out the tea party, but it never made sense that WA doesn’t have a state income tax.

TimTebowSavesAmerica on July 16, 2010 at 4:24 PM

It makes perfect sense when our fees are outrageous, our taxes (B&O, property, motor vehicle, etc.) are sky-high, and our sales tax is 10%. This state is money-hungry, and that’s not about to change any time soon.

Shepherd Lover on July 16, 2010 at 4:27 PM

Just a different kind of Red. ;-)

Ed Morrissey on July 16, 2010 at 4:20 PM

LOL.. okay, maybe a purple than. Holding their breath isn’t going to help then with election. ;-)

upinak on July 16, 2010 at 4:30 PM

Dude.

amerpundit on July 16, 2010 at 4:30 PM

Well, her opponents will have to come up with better ads. I’m already tired of seeing the one they have out now, with the guy lying on the ground getting stepped on.

Emily M. on July 16, 2010 at 4:32 PM

Emily M. on July 16, 2010 at 4:32 PM

I love that one! It’s a great metaphor.

amerpundit on July 16, 2010 at 4:34 PM

This doesn’t make up for the crap that is going on in Nevada. I hate Reid so much I would be willing to give up this seat to get the Nevada one.

taney71 on July 16, 2010 at 4:23 PM

The upside if Reid wins but the Republicans take back the House – and hopefully the Senate – would be that we get to watch Reid twist in the wind. I want him out, too, but I’d love to see the payback he has coming to him.

AubieJon on July 16, 2010 at 4:34 PM

The pacific Northwest turning purple would be a close fight, but red? I don’t know.

All I know is Patty Murray has been a disgrace for the State of Washington for a long time now. People are fed up. Our unemployment rate is pretty high.

CHANGE IS COMING.

portlandon on July 16, 2010 at 4:36 PM

I live on the East side of the state (called the Right side!) ..i haven’t seen this much venom against an incumbent since Tom Foley got booted! We are hopeful here that we can get just enough votes to offset the crazies in Seattle!

WhatsRight on July 16, 2010 at 4:36 PM

Didier won two Super Bowl rings as a member of the Redskins in Super Bowl XVII and Super Bowl XXII, scoring the final touchdown of the Redskins incredible 35-point second quarter in Super Bowl XXII. He was also the Redskins leading receiver in Super Bowl XVIII, catching five passes for 65 yards in their 38-9 loss.

He finished his NFL career with 141 receptions for 1,923 yards and 21 touchdowns in 105 games.

Tav on July 16, 2010 at 4:38 PM

Actually Washington is a red state except for the I-5 Corridor. the biggest problem is King County which accounts for almost 1/3 of the state population. I grew up in the Seattle area and never really bought into the “Cascade Curtain” until I moved to the eastern side of the state. King county is Berkley North…it is the county that allowed the Dems to steal the governorship from Dino Rossi

JKotthoff on July 16, 2010 at 4:40 PM

WitchDoctor on July 16, 2010 at 4:25 PM

Shepherd Lover on July 16, 2010 at 4:27 PM

FL is the same; we have higher prop taxes though. I hope you guys keep your status. I just thought it’s interesting you don’t have a state income tax because you have very progressive voters in your state, ie metro Seattle, SF North.

TimTebowSavesAmerica on July 16, 2010 at 4:42 PM

Patty Murray brings the same intellectual firepower to the Senate as Sheila Jackson-Lee does to the House.

RadClown on July 16, 2010 at 4:45 PM

Something to keep in mind about Didier. Not surprisingly he was endorsed by Ron Paul.
Doughboy on July 16, 2010 at 4:18 PM

Oh goodie…let’s make it 3/3 with Angle, Paul Jr. and Didier.

angryed on July 16, 2010 at 4:45 PM

Take a look at that face. The quintessential face of a lefty. She is not Left because she is misinformed. Lefties like her are made in the womb.

keep the change on July 16, 2010 at 4:52 PM

Instead of supporting the Scott Browns of the world, support people like Patricia Sullivan in Florida. She’s not purple. She’s a conservative tea party leader running as a Republican to get rid of Alan Grayson, and she’s up against a bunch of establishment candidates in the primary. You want to make a difference, give to her campaign.

Ronnie on July 16, 2010 at 4:54 PM

Poll means nothing-
Did they poll dead people?
Did they poll inmates?
Then the poll didn’t show all the Democrate support she will get.

LincolntheHun on July 16, 2010 at 4:56 PM

Take a look at that face. The quintessential face of a lefty. She is not Left because she is misinformed. Lefties like her are made in the womb.

keep the change on July 16, 2010 at 4:52 PM

Isn’t that the dung-beetle McCartney with a blond wig ?

macncheez on July 16, 2010 at 4:56 PM

Didier is not going to get the nomination. The fact that he’s leading her in a poll just says what this is: A referendum on Patty & Barry.

Rossi has this wrapped up.

Editor on July 16, 2010 at 4:58 PM

I agree with Didier, I’m tired of our blood and treasure spilling and being depleated to “protect the world” I say we carry a big stick and make it well known we will protect ourselves and retaliate if we’re attacked or Israel is (my only exception)

CCRWM on July 16, 2010 at 5:00 PM

I would love to give “Tennis Shoe Patty” the Boot!

I live in WA. and want her gone GONE GONE!

The Rock on July 16, 2010 at 5:03 PM

As a Redskin’s fan with no vote in Washington, I hope Mr. Didier wins. He was an excellent player.

Cindy Munford on July 16, 2010 at 5:07 PM

While this welcome news it is hardly compforting, until one the republicans are scoring around 60% in the polls their in serious danger of losing this race. The voter fraud apparatus is so entrenched and embraced by the staes bureaucracy that it is possible that it is only 2nd to Chicago in pervasiveness. I’ll let MM fill you in on the details:

http://michellemalkin.com/2007/07/26/acorn-falls-again-the-worst-case-of-voter-registration-fraud-in-washington-state-history/

As I have stated before, with Dhims see4ing the tsunami heading their way with plenty of advance notice they’ll have more than enough time to get their election rigging Ops up to speed. With that in mind, I’d guess that in any race this NOvember, if the Rep candidate is leading by by 7-9pts in Rasmussen’s their chances are still fairly iffy as thems Dhims are pretty much running with a built-in advantage.

Archimedes on July 16, 2010 at 5:15 PM

Lefties like her are made in the womb.

keep the change on July 16, 2010 at 4:52 PM

Atleast the ones who are allowed to live full term and be born.

portlandon on July 16, 2010 at 5:17 PM

A Rossi win would make the whole election cycle a success. Osama Mama is the epitome of northwest liberal, and some of us are just fed up. I suspect, a lot of support from Rossi is coming from the eastern part of the state. This time though, there may be enough fed up people in the Puget Sound corridor to tip the scales and boot her sorry ass out of office.

Mallard T. Drake on July 16, 2010 at 5:18 PM

A Rossi win would make the whole election cycle a success. Osama Mama is the epitome of northwest liberal, and some of us are just fed up. I suspect, a lot of support from Rossi is coming from the eastern part of the state. This time though, there may be enough fed up people in the Puget Sound corridor to tip the scales and boot her sorry ass out of office.

Mallard T. Drake on July 16, 2010 at 5:18 PM

Can’t you guys out there mobilize the military vote, I can’t see them as big fans of Murray. Between Ft Lewis, McChord AFB, Bangor & Everett naval stations you gotta have 100k votes right there.

Archimedes on July 16, 2010 at 5:24 PM

The upside if Reid wins but the Republicans take back the House – and hopefully the Senate – would be that we get to watch Reid twist in the wind. I want him out, too, but I’d love to see the payback he has coming to him.

AubieJon on July 16, 2010 at 4:34 PM

A Reid win?

No.

Possible.

Way.

Mojave Mark on July 16, 2010 at 5:42 PM

I hope Rossi wins :) It would be so perfect.

nwpammy on July 16, 2010 at 5:44 PM

Can’t you guys out there mobilize the military vote, I can’t see them as big fans of Murray. Between Ft Lewis, McChord AFB, Bangor & Everett naval stations you gotta have 100k votes right there.

Archimedes on July 16, 2010 at 5:24 PM

Uhhh… that would be because most of them are from out of state, and can’t vote in WA elections…

;)

Shepherd Lover on July 16, 2010 at 5:49 PM

They’ll turn Red until the Green comes back into their bank accounts, and then they’ll turn Blue again.

Dr. ZhivBlago on July 16, 2010 at 5:57 PM

My sister is a Seattle Democrat who swears that only Republicans have ever, ever, been guilty of vote fraud. And the worst part is that I think she truly believes that.

I never asked her, and since we’re not talking anymore I can’t find out, how she accounts for the fact that there were more votes cast in King County in 2008 for governor than there were registered voters…. And funny thing, after all the ballots left in the trunks of voting officials cars and the like were found, Rossi went from winning to losing. And he lost by fewer votes than the number that were obviously fraudulent.

Even if I could afford to live in Seattle, I’d never do it, since I’d like to think my vote might actually count.

LibraryGryffon on July 16, 2010 at 6:05 PM

Patti’s probably hoping the soon to be announced Tanker contract going to Boeing will push her over the top to stay… It’s just the way things seem to work here.

drfredc on July 16, 2010 at 6:11 PM

LibraryGryffon on July 16, 2010 at 6:05 PM

The natural beauty of this part of the country far out weighs political considerations.

Mallard T. Drake on July 16, 2010 at 6:25 PM

Washington is now almost 100% mail-in ballot. It’s not the polls that will determine the winners of elections, but the group that counts the ballots, with King County holding the key – and we’ve all seen how that has gone in the last few elections….

SouthernRoots on July 16, 2010 at 6:27 PM

Patti’s probably hoping the soon to be announced Tanker contract going to Boeing will push her over the top to stay… It’s just the way things seem to work here.

drfredc on July 16, 2010 at 6:11 PM

Of course, Osama Mama was pretty ineffective at influencing local politicians to work with Boeing to keep them from moving their HQ to Chicago.

Mallard T. Drake on July 16, 2010 at 6:27 PM

Uhhh… that would be because most of them are from out of state, and can’t vote in WA elections…

;)

Shepherd Lover on July 16, 2010 at 5:49 PM

D’oh! My bad, cranial cramp. I remembered voting in WA when stationed at Lewis, but was from WA prior, so it didn’t register.

Archimedes on July 16, 2010 at 6:32 PM

Maybe she can get a job in a Waziristan daycare?

andycanuck on July 16, 2010 at 6:34 PM

Doughboy on July 16, 2010 at 4:18 PM

yep, takes same idiot stance on NAFTA/CAFTA too “Managed Trade”.

for the record, that was not Jefferson’s actual Foreign Policy. one of many many things Paul is either ignorant of or deceiving on, take your pick

jp on July 16, 2010 at 6:41 PM

This doesn’t make up for the crap that is going on in Nevada. I hate Reid so much I would be willing to give up this seat to get the Nevada one.

taney71 on July 16, 2010 at 4:23 PM

Speak for yourself. I live just north of Seattle and would love to see this Commie go down in flames. Reid too, but changing Washington from pink to GOP red would be a sweet, sweet thing.

RationalIcthus on July 16, 2010 at 6:57 PM

Washington state is a bit more red than most people know. Basically Seattle and Spokane are liberal choke points, but the rural areas are very red, and very motivated. Murray has not only NOT attempted to distance herself from Obama’s failed policy, she is almost breaking her arm trying to pat herself on the back for being a Obama lackey.

Washington’s debt is terrifying, the tax rate is abominable, and the Union/teacher corruption is astonishing. The Machinist’s Union is forcing Boeing to leave the state, and the rest of the businesses are being chased out by the confiscatory tax rates.

Rode Werk on July 16, 2010 at 6:58 PM

What’ll be interesting is that WA has a state income tax amendment on the ballot this fall. That should bring out the tea party, but it never made sense that WA doesn’t have a state income tax.

TimTebowSavesAmerica on July 16, 2010 at 4:24 PM

It makes sense to me when my property tax bill arrives. And as a landlord, I can state that I pass the property taxes on to my tenants, so don’t think that renters don’t pay their share.

RationalIcthus on July 16, 2010 at 6:59 PM

Our problem may be,

Rossi and Didier splitting the Republican vote,

with “Tennis Shoe” walking back in.

franksalterego on July 16, 2010 at 7:15 PM

Nevermind, we have a bit of a problem counting votes.

franksalterego on July 16, 2010 at 7:21 PM

SOMETIMES people wake up. SOMETIMES people realize they’ve been shafted.

GarandFan on July 16, 2010 at 7:29 PM

All I know is Patty Murray has been a disgrace for the State of Washington for a long time now. People are fed up. Our unemployment rate is pretty high.

WA has traveled along ways from the glorious days of Henry “{Scoop” Jackson, quite a fall that.

Archimedes on July 16, 2010 at 7:39 PM

Rossi and Didier splitting the Republican vote,

with “Tennis Shoe” walking back in.

franksalterego on July 16, 2010 at 7:15 PM

Uh, we have a primary, so that’s not gonna happen.

Editor on July 16, 2010 at 7:54 PM

WA has traveled along ways from the glorious days of Henry “{Scoop” Jackson, quite a fall that.

Archimedes on July 16, 2010 at 7:39 PM

We were pushed… by the same people who slit CA’s thoat.

Editor on July 16, 2010 at 7:55 PM

LincolntheHun on July 16, 2010 at 4:56 PM

Gee! You made me feel at home: I was born in Chicago.

burt on July 16, 2010 at 8:06 PM

My favorite Patty Murray tid-bit.
-
http://michellemalkin.com/2009/02/15/sen-patty-murrays-worthless-stimulus-earmark/

diogenes on July 16, 2010 at 8:25 PM

I will say this about the race up in WA. As a citizen who lived in the State pretty much my whole life-The only way Murray wins is by the way the Governorship was won. (See MN-Freakin Frankin style).

hawkman on July 16, 2010 at 8:48 PM

Clint Didier is the right guy.

Rossi is a RINO.

http://thespeechatimeforchoosing.wordpress.com/2010/07/06/clint-didier-a-strong-decisive-leader-for-america-why-we-need-him-in-the-united-states-senate/

BTW, Washington has a “free for all” kind of open primary. It was designed to make sure two democrats end up at the top, shutting Republicans out. Looks like it will be two Republicans instead.

Here’s a different poll, shows Murray leading, but good, and different numbers for Clint

http://thespeechatimeforchoosing.wordpress.com/2010/07/12/clint-didier-the-leading-republican-in-wa-state-senate-race-on-the-strength-of-women-independent-and-democrat-voters/

gary4205 on July 17, 2010 at 4:08 AM

For the first time in my life I am proud of Washington state. Even the aging grunge rockers in Seattle are starting to see the light and the Coe family no longer has a choke hold on the news the Spokane gets.

GO Didier!

jistincase on July 17, 2010 at 8:37 AM

I live on the East side of the state (called the Right side!) ..i haven’t seen this much venom against an incumbent since Tom Foley got booted! We are hopeful here that we can get just enough votes to offset the crazies in Seattle!

WhatsRight on July 16, 2010

While the Democrats would like to discourage Republicans from going to the polls, their real problem is getting their own voters motivated. The Republicans are hungry and champing at the bit. The Democrats aren’t sure they love what’s going on enough to make the effort to maintain it. That’s got to be worth some percentage of swing in the polls.

Extrafishy on July 17, 2010 at 2:34 PM

Not to worry Patty. The SEIU and New Black Panthers will be at every voting site to supervise. /S

byteshredder on July 17, 2010 at 8:53 PM

Didier is not going to get the nomination. The fact that he’s leading her in a poll just says what this is: A referendum on Patty & Barry.

Rossi has this wrapped up.

Editor on July 16, 2010 at 4:58 PM

Keep toking – it’ll look more real as time goes on. The reality is that it’s more likely to be Rossi and Didier in November. There’s a lot of Paulbots in King County and they’d pull a Heaven’s Gate before they’d vote for Dino.

Not to worry Patty. The SEIU and New Black Panthers will be at every voting site to supervise. /S

byteshredder on July 17, 2010 at 8:53 PM

And the tea partiers and the 9/12ers and the Campaign for Liberty will be at the vote counting. Let’s roll!

platypus on July 18, 2010 at 1:17 AM