PPP: Obama, Palin tied 46/46 in 2012 polling

posted at 12:55 pm on July 15, 2010 by Ed Morrissey

No, this is not coming from Rasmussen or an internal GOP poll, but from the normally Democrat-sympathetic Public Policy Polling.  PPP pitted Barack Obama against five potential Republican challengers for the 2012 presidential campaign, and the only one Obama beat was … Jan Brewer.  Even that, PPP admitted, resulted from Brewer’s lack of name recognition.  The headline, though, is Sarah Palin’s dead heat with the President:

With his approval numbers hitting new lows it’s no surprise that Barack Obama’s numbers in our monthly look ahead to the 2012 Presidential race are their worst ever this month. He trails Mitt Romney 46-43, Mike Huckabee 47-45, Newt Gingrich 46-45, and is even tied with Sarah Palin at 46. The only person tested he leads is Jan Brewer, who doesn’t have particularly high name recognition on the national level at this point.

It’s not that any of the Republican candidates are particularly well liked. Only Huckabee has positive favorability numbers at 37/28. Romney’s at 32/33, Gingrich at 32/42, Palin at 37/52, and Brewer at 17/20. But with a majority of Americans now disapproving of Obama it’s no surprise that a large chunk of them would replace him as President if they had that choice today.

There are two things driving these strong poll numbers for the Republican candidates. The first is a lead with independents in every match up. Romney leads 48-35 with them, Gingrich is up 50-39, Huckabee has a 46-40 advantage, Palin’s up 47-42, and even Brewer has a 38-37 edge.

In case one wonders whether PPP’s sample is to blame, the partisan split favors Democrats by five points, 39/34.  That’s probably overstating the actual size of the gap and the percentage of Democrats in the general population, which means that the independents got short shrift as well.  Also note that this poll surveyed registered voters, not likely voters — a sampling technique that would tend to favor Democrats and Obama a little more.

The news is almost uniformly bad for Obama in the poll.  His approval rating is now seriously underwater at 45/52.  That gets even worse among independents, 40/56.  He doesn’t get above 46% in any matchup with Republicans, not even Jan Brewer, whom he beats 44/36, with 20% undecided.

For Palin, the numbers show she can play against Obama.  She pulls 8% of those who voted for Obama in 2008 and 35% of those who “don’t remember” (?!?), which puts her on par for outreach with Gingrich (9%, 40%), Romney (9%, 32%), and slightly better than Huckabee (6%, 32%).  If that’s not vindication for those who argued that Palin couldn’t do as well with unaffiliated voters, it’s cetainly something close to it.

Update: There seems to be some confusion in the comments over the number of people who claimed not to remember how they voted in 2008.  That was 9% of the respondents in the survey (combined with those who voted third party).  Since Obama won the 2008 popular vote by seven points (53/46) and this Dem +5 poll shows only 46% of respondents acknowledging their vote for Obama, I’d say it’s a healthy probability that most of that 9% voted for Obama and don’t want to acknowledge it now.  Of that 9%, Palin wins 35%, Gingrich wins 40%, and so on.


Related Posts:

Breaking on Hot Air

Blowback

Note from Hot Air management: This section is for comments from Hot Air's community of registered readers. Please don't assume that Hot Air management agrees with or otherwise endorses any particular comment just because we let it stand. A reminder: Anyone who fails to comply with our terms of use may lose their posting privilege.

Trackbacks/Pings

Trackback URL

Comments

Comment pages: 1 2 3

Were you also someone (like Manly Rash) who believed that Obama would lose despite no polling results to the contrary for roughly thirty days before November 2008? At some point, you have to acknowledge and accept the situation before you.

Jimbo3 on July 15, 2010 at 9:44 PM

No, I wasn’t like Manly.
I hoped, prayed and worked for Oilbama to lose because I love my country and I knew he would do bad things to it.
This isn’t a game, Himbo–this is about our country and our country’s legacy of freedom and democracy, paid for with the blood of our forefathers, to be preserved not only for the next generation of Americans, but for the world.

Jenfidel on July 15, 2010 at 9:49 PM

No, she hasn’t.
Her numbers have been climbing steadily across the board with voters and as time goes on.
Read technopeasant’s analysis above.
Then read the 1979 Time Magazine piece about Reagan v. Carter.
Research before you post, why don’t you? (for once!)
Lastly, you do realize we’re 28 months away from this election and staring at Congressional mid-terms?
Do you remember the MSM’s shock at the magnitude of Sarah’s influence in the latest GOP primaries?
Halperin, is that you?

Jenfidel on July 15, 2010 at 9:45 PM

http://hotair.com/archives/2010/05/13/ppp-poll-palin-now-fourth-behind-gingrich-in-gop-primary-match-up

http://tpmdc.talkingpointsmemo.com/2010/02/palins-poll-numbers-hit-historic-lows-even-among-gopers.php

http://www.cbsnews.com/8301-503544_162-6113291-503544.html

I can find others, if you need more evidence.

Jimbo3 on July 15, 2010 at 9:51 PM

The GOP always finds a way to snatch defeat from victory.

I guess in 2012 Palin will be the one to do it.

angryed on July 15, 2010 at 10:09 PM

I am tired of Bain Capital tossed around as some kind of evidence of Mitt ROmney’s credentials. Why don’t we nominate Jon Corzine, Bloomberg and others who have even more impressive resumes than Mitt Romney. Jon Corzie ran GOldman Sachs which is even bigger than Bain. WHy don’t we nominate him as the Republican standadrd bearer?

promachus on July 15, 2010 at 10:30 PM

Palin has polled worse than other GOP candidates for roughly a year. You have a good point, but you’re also making the assumption that she can change peoples’ opinions. That’st tough to do once they’ve formed an initial impression.

Jimbo3 on July 15, 2010 at 9:41 PM

You’ve just gotta love these Palin threads with 300+ comments, many of them telling us how Palin is hated and is going nowhere and can’t be elected dogcatcher or wolf-shooter.

Fine. If that’s so, and she chooses to run, she’ll fall flat on her face and your fave will rule the day. No worries, right?

ddrintn on July 15, 2010 at 10:53 PM

He doesn’t get above 46% in any matchup with Republicans, not even Jan Brewer, whom he beats 44/36, with 20% undecided.

i.e., 20% are looking for somebody else, but weren’t willing to commit to someone they didn’t know. Not good news for the Bamster.

AZfederalist on July 15, 2010 at 11:07 PM

Slightly OT: Ed, THANK YOU for no g0d@mn wink picture….that is/was really getting on my nerves

Seriously AP I know you probably don’t like Palin but could rotate the damn pictures…is that TOO MUCH to ask?!

Also slightly more OT: where the hell is the coverage of the SECOND Gulf Drilling Moratorium or the complete ABSENCE of the big damn oil-sucking A-Whale?

Does NO ONE care about LA, MS, AL, GA, or FL anymore?

SgtSVJones on July 15, 2010 at 11:34 PM

grr…supposed to have been *could you rotate the damn pictures*

SgtSVJones on July 15, 2010 at 11:35 PM

I can find others, if you need more evidence.

Jimbo3 on July 15, 2010 at 9:51 PM

I didn’t ask for evidence.
And I don’t like or set any store by most polls (except for Rasmussen’s particularly his Presidential Approval poll which tells me every day how much the rest of the country thinks Obama sucks! (-17) today!!! Woo-Hoo!)

I don’t need a poll to tell me Sarah won the debate.
She made Biden into a mop!

Jenfidel on July 15, 2010 at 11:38 PM

I can find others, if you need more evidence.

Jimbo3 on July 15, 2010 at 9:51 PM

BTW, did you read the (linked earlier in the thread) piece in Time Magazine on Carter v. Reagan as I asked you to…TWICE?
(I can answer that already: “No.”)
If you do, you’ll learn a lot about a big winner who looked like a loser in the polls.

Jenfidel on July 15, 2010 at 11:41 PM

Well, given GOP primary history, if Palin is our best candidate, she won’t be picked.

I mean, John McCain, really? Methusalah, hates his base, about as electrifying as a turnip? You picked that to run in 2008.

If Palin is the GOP hope, you’ll end up choosing Grahamnesty in the primary.

Or is the GOP actually wanting to win elections again? Should be a nice surprise.

austinnelly on July 15, 2010 at 1:30 PM

Naaaaaah,
The GOP doesn’t want to win elections they just want to be liked enough to be invited to all those swanky cocktail parties in Georgetown and on ‘K Street’. They are only interested in power and growing the FedGov a little more slowly.

We better elect someone willing to TAKE A MEAT CLEAVER AND GET TO THE BONE on Federal spending or our World Bank / Chinese debt masters will be charging us rent to live in our homes and force us to pay to visit MAOSTONE (formerly Yellowstone) National Park.

You know anyone on the GOP side that seems like they might be a real Conservative that might have the fortitude to fight the press and everyone else on principle to get it done?

PappyD61 on July 16, 2010 at 12:22 AM

This isn’t saying much, other than any living person who isn’t in prison polls at least even with Obama.

ray on July 16, 2010 at 12:42 AM

I’ve read a lot of Palin-haters post on and on about how Sarah ‘could not beat Obama’, how ‘she had no chance to win’ and ‘he would crush her’.

That’s a ‘big f’n deal’ to quote Joe Biteme. That shows she could win against Obama. There are no ties in an election, and this proves she does have a chance and that she could win.

Another Palin-hater myth is debunked. The sexist propaganda swallowers have lost another lie to hide behind. Let’s just face the facts. YOU HATE HER BECAUSE SHE IS A WOMAN!!!!

Mr Purple on July 16, 2010 at 1:25 AM

OK, I just barely passed statistics, but when I look at polls like this one, or like the one posted yesterday in which Mitt’s +1 increase among Obama voters was considered to be “up big,” and I see that, among favorables, Palin is either in the lead or very competitive, I scratch my head and have to wonder why some people still believe she can’t win an election.

I can only surmise people are hung up on her negatives. Compared with some others, I admit they are high, but Newt and Huck and esp. Mitt have been flying under the radar. Palin is in the news constantly. She has been given a colonoscopy by the media; there’s nothing we don’t know about her. I’m inclined to believe that, barring some huge scandal, her negatives are as high as they’re going to get. The other guys, however, have a loooooooong way to go before they reach their points of critical mass. Once the campaign is underway, opinion will realign itself. And if Palin gets the nomination — and she stands an excellent chance of doing so — even more will gravitate to her. In a choice between her and Obama, at least SOME of those in the middle who are currently not keen on her are going to come her way, even if it’s a lesser-of-two-evils choice for them.

Bottom line: People who say Palin has NO chance of winning are either intellectual dishonest or they are fooling themselves. I’m not prepared to say it will be a landslide like 1980, but it’s certainly not a forgone conclusion that she would lose either.

Underestimate her at your own peril, folks. She is a force.

NoLeftTurn on July 16, 2010 at 2:28 AM

Seriously AP I know you probably don’t like Palin but could rotate the damn pictures…is that TOO MUCH to ask?!

SgtSVJones on July 15, 2010 at 11:34 PM

It is too much to ask. That might humanize her.

Allah needs to please his Big Media masters like a loyal dog, and he can perform the same tired trick thousands of times as long as he gets his treat. He is well trained.

Mr Purple on July 16, 2010 at 5:51 AM

I am really looking forward to all her critics trying to respond after the first debate against Obama.

They have mocked and dismissed her as a joke – but how will they be able to spin the absolute verbal destruction that Palin would unleash on Obama?

I suppose they’ll label her as ‘mean’ and start calling her a bitch. No shortage of sexist insults at their disposal for any situation that may arise.

Mr Purple on July 16, 2010 at 5:56 AM

I am really looking forward to all her critics trying to respond after the first debate against Obama.

They have mocked and dismissed her as a joke – but how will they be able to spin the absolute verbal destruction that Palin would .unleash on Obama?

I suppose they’ll label her as ‘mean’ and start calling her a b!t@#. No shortage of sexist insults at their disposal for any situation that may arise.

Mr Purple on July 16, 2010 at 6:00 AM

Fine. If that’s so, and she chooses to run, she’ll fall flat on her face and your fave will rule the day. No worries, right?

ddrintn on July 15, 2010 at 10:53 PM

This is why we have all of these sudden “Palin isn’t so bad after all” MSM stories coming out. The left knows that Obama in 2012 is guaranteed a win if Palin is his opponent. It makes sense that the left is propping her up.

I still can’t understand why anyone on the right is trying to prop her up.

The only question for 2012 should Palin be the nominee, will be does Obama win 50 states or only 48?

angryed on July 16, 2010 at 7:04 AM

Angryed on July 16, 2010 at 7:04 AM

Formula for a blowout in 2012:

White votes for Obama: 38%

White votes for Palin: 60%

Game, set, and match!

NB: PPP poll with white voters: Palin: 55% Obama: 36%

technopeasant on July 16, 2010 at 8:33 AM

I would like to eat my own words but I don’t think she has a chance. To many of my left-of-center friends strongly dislike Palin and possibly more so than they did for Bush. It’s an irrational dislike that’s rooted more on emotions rather than on issues.

shick on July 16, 2010 at 9:31 AM

It’s an irrational dislike that’s rooted more on emotions rather than on issues.

shick on July 16, 2010 at 9:31 AM

That sums up democrat voters in America. Ignorant and emotional.

Fking idiots are destroying opportunity in this country.

Inanemergencydial on July 16, 2010 at 10:08 AM

Interesting.

I think I’ve decided to vote Palin in the primaries already. I’ve been on the fence, but I see no harm in supporting her in the primaries.

If the GOP goes the way of Romney, then I’ll vote Obama and just trust that the congress will block him.

AnninCA on July 16, 2010 at 11:49 AM

I would like to eat my own words but I don’t think she has a chance. To many of my left-of-center friends strongly dislike Palin and possibly more so than they did for Bush. It’s an irrational dislike that’s rooted more on emotions rather than on issues.

shick on July 16, 2010 at 9:31 AM

I think that’s why I sort of like her alot.

She appeals to my rebel side.

AnninCA on July 16, 2010 at 11:50 AM

There seems to be some confusion in the comments over the number of people who claimed not to remember how they voted in 2008.

Some people really don’t know how they voted in 2008? I have been voting for better than 40 years, yet I can remember how I voted in each election. I probably can’t remember who ran in what year, but you name the people in a given election that I voted in, I can tell you who I voted for. And I believe it’s the same for everyone.

They may not want to admit who they voted for. Now that’s another issue.

gstrickler on July 16, 2010 at 12:28 PM

Except for possibly Palin, all the names mentioned are retreads, IMO, they have zero chance of beating Obummer. Seems the people that would actually have a chance of winning for the Republicans in 2012, have either not yet appeared on the horizon, or if they are known, they are not interested.

Things do not appear to be much better now for 2012, than they did in 2008 for the Republicans. In 2008 they could have run Jesus Christ, and they would have lost!

GFW on July 16, 2010 at 12:46 PM

My bunion could outpoll Obama right now.

That is why Newt does so well in this poll. He is not Obama.

Obama has a lot to say. Unfortunately he already said it, and it doesn’t satisfy the needs of the electorate. Obama did not fix the economy and everyone but my bunion and Obama know it.

If the jobs stimulus packages had been handed out to the electorate in a lottery, we would be in no worse shape.

Giving a foreign manufacturer a lithium battery factory in Michigan at cost of $500,000 per job, does not make up for the fact Obama refused to call in FEMA for the oil spill cleanup.

FEMA’ s mission to triage natural disasters can be extended to man-made didasters if
1. Governors declare emergencies (they did)
2. The President requests the services of FEMA (he did not)

The President did not see a need for FEMA to clean up the oil spill, but he saw a need to promote a factory to build batteries for cars no one owns – cars powered by burning coal

Giving support to foreign manufacter LG, currently on an advertising blitz to displace American appliance manufacturers with foreign washers and dryers, is low on the public wish list compared to giving support to the detroyed Americans in the Gulf States.

They have to be nuts to keep him in office

entagor on July 16, 2010 at 9:25 PM

well, I hope you enjoyed that soap bubble while it lasted.

audiculous on December 31, 2010 at 11:50 PM

Comment pages: 1 2 3