Can the GOP take the Senate?
posted at 12:55 pm on July 14, 2010 by Ed Morrissey
Democrats got incensed when Robert Gibbs conceded the possibility that Republicans could retake the House in the upcoming midterm elections, which the White House meant as a warning — as well as an acknowledgment of reality. Imagine what their reaction will be when they read William Galston’s analysis of the Senate races in The New Republic. While most analysts predict healthy gains for Republicans but control to remain firmly in Democratic hands, Galston says the Senate is now in play:
To retain control, Democrats need at least 50 seats. They start with 45 seats that are safe or not up for election this year, and there are three more races (NY, CT, and OR) that they are likely to win, for a total of 48. (The comparable number for Republicans is 41.) That leaves 11 seats in play. …
There are some elections years (1980, 1986, and 2006 come to mind) when most of the close races tip in the same direction, producing a shift of control. 2010 could be another.
It’s entirely possible that when the dust settles this November, Republicans will have hit the trifecta—President Obama’s former seat, Vice President Biden’s former seat, plus the Senate majority leader’s seat.
Galston lists eleven seats that Democrats may well lose in November and the most recent polling he had before publication. Some of those polls have shifted a bit; the latest Rasmussen survey on the Boxer-Fiorina race puts Boxer back into the lead, and another on the Nevada race that brings Reid within three of Angle. Still, the implication is clear — a national momentum shift could allow Republicans to sweep these races and put both chambers of Congress back in Republican hands.
That still appears to be a long shot, even with this list. On the other hand, each of these races look winnable now for Republicans, even in such usually Democratic states as Washington and California, where weak incumbents will face a huge anti-incumbent reaction this year. Galston holds out hope that Rand Paul will fall to Jack Conway in Kentucky, but that seems less likely than Russ Feingold winning his re-election fight in Wisconsin against Ron Johnson.
If the GOP can gain five or six seats, it will still be a big victory and will force Democrats to start compromising. They won’t get legislation through the upper chamber simply by flipping one Republican vote any longer, which will make the White House and Senate Majority Leader — whoever it turns out to be in the 112th — come to Republicans to craft middle-of-the-road bills on shared priorities, or get nothing done at all. But if Galston’s prediction comes true, it would be an utter disaster for Barack Obama, and shine an even brighter spotlight on his leadership inadequacies.
Update: Here’s an interesting update on the Wisconsin race. The Johnson campaign announced it has raised over $550,000 in the second quarter. If that seems a little low, remember that Johnson only started his campaign on May 17th — which means he raised that money in about seven weeks.
Blowback
Note from Hot Air management: This section is for comments from Hot Air's community of registered readers. Please don't assume that Hot Air management agrees with or otherwise endorses any particular comment just because we let it stand. A reminder: Anyone who fails to comply with our terms of use may lose their posting privilege.
Trackbacks/Pings
Trackback URL
Comments
66
Inanemergencydial on July 14, 2010 at 12:56 PM
Oh pretty please with sugar on top!
LincolntheHun on July 14, 2010 at 12:59 PM
can the GOP get a pair of candidates in NY to attack Gilibrand and F Chuck Schumer???
phreshone on July 14, 2010 at 12:59 PM
The GOP needs to hold all of the open seats of retiring Republicans to even have a chance at taking the Senate. I think it is likely that they lose at least one, probably Florida.
Mark1971 on July 14, 2010 at 1:00 PM
The Socialists out of the Majority, that sounds great. The RINOs back in the majority?…eh, not so much. But I guess its better than the alternative.
james23 on July 14, 2010 at 1:00 PM
No no no
There 114 senate seats.
57 states x 2 senate seats each = 114
You don’t listen very well.
BobMbx on July 14, 2010 at 1:01 PM
Unless the new R’s turn out to be the same as some of the old R’s, like Brown, Snowe, Collins, Graham, McCain. We’re still in the hole.
Kissmygrits on July 14, 2010 at 1:02 PM
Once we shake their smug arrogance with a strong November, I’d think the “centrist” democrat senators might start swinging the other way.
So, 3 more seats out of 11 elections to get to 51? Dooood. With 51 votes, we can force the One to nominate a real judge or play by the rules…
joeindc44 on July 14, 2010 at 1:03 PM
Can we hold off the Kagan vote until Jan 2011?
WashJeff on July 14, 2010 at 1:04 PM
“can the GOP get a pair of candidates in NY to attack Gilibrand and F Chuck Schumer???”
Everything after ‘pair’ is superfluous.
wright on July 14, 2010 at 1:04 PM
I honestly don’t want to take both houses. That will be pretty much suicide for Republicans when/if the country slips back into the coming double dip recession or even depression. The MSM will be all over them in an instant with every single bit of bads news they can dig up or make up. If you think their treratement of Bush was bad, wait and see what happens if the Republicans take back both houses.
Johnnyreb on July 14, 2010 at 1:04 PM
yes they can,
Arkansas
North Dakota
Indiana
In the bag.
Pennsylvania
Illinois
Ohio
Nevada
the gop can win all of them, it will take work but they are gettable.
That leaves us at 7.
Next
Washington
Wisconsin
California.
Tougher, but also gettable.
That would be 10 and the numbers would be 51 GOP to 49 Dems.
rob verdi on July 14, 2010 at 1:05 PM
I think I am as right-wing conservative as any, but I don’t want to take over either the house or congress (as long as Harry and Nancy lose their re-elections).
I don’t want to give Barack any excuses (“well, if I only had a democratic congress I would have straightened out the deficit, the republicans were fighting against me all the way, they are the party of “no” ya know”). And I don’t want him to become like Bill Clinton, who was forced to come more to center, and that won him another term in office.
I would like to see the balance shift to where the dems can’t do any more damage than they have already done.
But PLEEEEZZE, put Nancy and Harry out to pasture.
DuctTapeMyBrain on July 14, 2010 at 1:05 PM
I’m thinking the more this kinda crap comes out, the better November looks for the GOP.
txag92 on July 14, 2010 at 1:05 PM
Its a very long shot, but if it happens…. I’m gonna be dancing all night.
El_Terrible on July 14, 2010 at 1:05 PM
Republican voters MUST get out to the polls. Don’t sit back and think others will do it for us. And don’t hang up when pollsters call either…. spend the time to tell them what you think…
originalpechanga on July 14, 2010 at 1:06 PM
filibuster Kagan!
mjbrooks3 on July 14, 2010 at 1:06 PM
You can, if you THINK you can.
azkag on July 14, 2010 at 1:07 PM
Yay…and maybe Backdoor John McCain can be Majority leader. Wouldn’t be awesome if Obama could pass an amnesty with the GOP having control of the Senate? How bipartisan would that be?
Careful what you wish for, idiots.
austinnelly on July 14, 2010 at 1:07 PM
When you are in the voting booth alone…the dems lose, and you won’t be called a racist.
You can walk out and say proudly “Yeah, I didn’t go for it, I voted democrat”…and it will be okay that you didn’t, no one will ever really know.
right2bright on July 14, 2010 at 1:10 PM
SOLID B+
jukin on July 14, 2010 at 1:11 PM
The state of the economy in November will determine who is going to win. Given the current policies of this dumbass administration, I wouldn’t predict a stunning economic turn-around any time soon.
Let Reid push Immigration “reform” and Cap & Trade.
GarandFan on July 14, 2010 at 1:13 PM
Hope and Change.
LibTired on July 14, 2010 at 1:18 PM
So much of this is up to the Republican party to get off its butt and go to work. The Tea Party is serving to energize the Republican party and get rid of dead wood, but the fat cats in the party have to take some risks and spend some cash. Too often they are so worried about their own nest, that they screw others with a chance. I speak of what I know as a one time Republican candidate.
Hening on July 14, 2010 at 1:18 PM
Worst thing that could ever happen. It would guarantee Obama to win reelection.
We need to lose the battle to win the war.
ButterflyDragon on July 14, 2010 at 1:21 PM
Who knows?
But it’s bad enough that the media is now working hard to lower expectations.
tom on July 14, 2010 at 1:21 PM
+100!
parteagirl on July 14, 2010 at 1:23 PM
“Start cramming the lame duck agenda through now!”
-PBHO
Bishop on July 14, 2010 at 1:24 PM
It’s about time people realize that control of Congress matters as much as the White House.
The Bush administration was hardly a magical time, but things were still pretty good until the Democrats took control of Congress. All the economic bad news started then.
Imagine how much more Reagan could have done if he hadn’t had to fight to get things through a Democratic Congress. And back then there were at least a few Reagan Democrats willing to work with him.
Now the Democrat party has gone so far off the liberal deep end that we can no longer afford to have the Democrats in control of Congress, no matter who is president!
tom on July 14, 2010 at 1:25 PM
That kind of thinking assumes the OPM (one party media) still controls the narrative. It doesn’t. The fact that we’re both posting here is part of the proof. The polls are more proof- despite the OPM, The O is tanking in the polls. Wouldn’t happen if they still controlled the narrative. Cats out of the bag. Voters are catching on.
parteagirl on July 14, 2010 at 1:27 PM
Liberal trolls told me that public funded abortions would never happen because of Obamacare.
lorien1973 on July 14, 2010 at 1:27 PM
Worst thing that could ever happen. It would guarantee Obama to win reelection.
We need to lose the battle to win the war.
wrong. wrong. wrongitty wrong.
The only way the GOP loses the 2012 presidential race is zombie perot. America cannot affort the dems to be anywhere in a leadership role. Plus, we need to start investigating the White House to stop its thuggery.
joeindc44 on July 14, 2010 at 1:27 PM
oh, and fillibuster Kagan. Actually, fillibuster everything.
joeindc44 on July 14, 2010 at 1:28 PM
Gillibrand (D-NY) should go Republican. That is depressing. Sure wish Guiliani would run. Could Pataki win that seat against her? (if he ran)
Ed, maybe this is something you’re more likely to discuss on the radio show, but what are your thoughts on the GOP taking the House and Senate thus providing an easy target for Obama to blame? Because you know he will. Would it be better to have the House and almost the Senate? But that’d mean Reid would still be there. *sigh*
Regardless of the outcome, the GOP MUST have a clear plan for small government and deficit reduction. They need to have a spine and not wilt under the Alinsky tactics of Obama and the SRM during the next 2 years and 4 months.
conservative pilgrim on July 14, 2010 at 1:30 PM
Anyone who says that they don’t want to take both houses for whatever reason, needs to rethink your strategy. There’s no such thing as a strategic loss in politics–when you lose, your’e just a loser.
Now if we win both…we just have to LEAD and everything else will fall into place in 2012.
Youngs98 on July 14, 2010 at 1:31 PM
Is it too late to change Brown’s mind on financial reform? He says the bill isn’t perfect. Somebody tell him to wait! He and others will have more of a chance to improve or remove it after January’s swear in.
parteagirl on July 14, 2010 at 1:31 PM
Bah, take the elections one at a time and go for the win individually. Trying to concoct some undercover strategy now because of what might happen in 2012 is foolish.
Bishop on July 14, 2010 at 1:32 PM
The Supreme Court.
El_Terrible on July 14, 2010 at 1:34 PM
If both House and the Senate were to be stripped from Democrat contol I would estatic, but I think that’s just a bridge too far. Take Angle for example, she’s currently ahead in the polling by 3pts, in my opinion that mean’s if the election were held today she’d probably lose by at least 2pts. The degree and the pervasiveness that is just coming to light recently of the voter fraud and ballot manipulation on behalf of Democrats is worth at least 5pts in any race.
I do not feel comfortable about any lead under 7-9pts as polled by Rasmussen, and I am not seeing too many of those.
Archimedes on July 14, 2010 at 1:37 PM
Elections have consequences. The GOP has to win as many seats as possible if the country as we used to know it is to be saved.
*If* Republicans can gain control of both chambers, then the next step is a systematic focus of educating the electorate, and governing like pragmatic conservatives (not squish RINOs) until the 2012 election cycle.
itzWicks on July 14, 2010 at 1:41 PM
In 1994 the Senate was retaken because of the House voters turning out in droves because of the AW ban.
We are facing a very similar thing this November, in this case our children’s future and white slavery by debt are in play. Socialism, Liberalism is collectively collapsing right before our eyes, globally.
tarpon on July 14, 2010 at 1:43 PM
who might put the DEMS OVER?
Senator-Elect Charlie Christ from Florida……..can you imagine the TURMOIL AND MEDIA WHORING that might follow if Christ is indeed the pivotal Senate vote?
Christ will get plenty stimulated (funds out the wazoo) by the White House in that case.
PappyD61 on July 14, 2010 at 1:46 PM
“Start cramming the lame duck agenda through now!”
-PBHODOTUS!!Bishop on July 14, 2010 at 1:24 PM
PappyD61 on July 14, 2010 at 1:47 PM
Colonists: We need to lose to the British so that we can win against them next time
ConservativePartyNow on July 14, 2010 at 1:48 PM
The ivory tower, bubble syndrome of dumbocrats like Pelosi unaware that her district of nutjobs isn’t like most of the other democrats in office right now might be the dumbocrats undoing. Let’s have them keep believing that their huge socialist/communist deconstruction of America is going to make them win big in November.
PastorJon on July 14, 2010 at 1:49 PM
It is Crist not Christ. Please do not compare this idot to my Savior
ConservativePartyNow on July 14, 2010 at 1:50 PM
I hope this isn’t true. Take the house and cut the Senate majorities but not both houses.
The Democrats are masters at spinning the blame for any and all problems on the Republicans.
Until the Republicans stop being the stupid party, it’s better to just bog down Obumble until 2012.
rickyricardo on July 14, 2010 at 1:52 PM
Which is exactly my point. We lose one conservative justice in the next 6 years and it will change the balance of the court for a generation if not longer.
ButterflyDragon on July 14, 2010 at 1:55 PM
I don’t see this happening. Nothing wrong with optimism, but let’s be realistic. And? I’m not at all confident about Nevada or FL, even KY, which just a few months ago seemed like sure bets.
changer1701 on July 14, 2010 at 1:57 PM
I’m a little worried about Nevada. Pretty sure Kentucky is fine and Florida will be Rubios. The Dems will abandon Crist once it gets serious. Even if Crist should win, God forbid, the landscape will have changed and he will want to be on the winning side. That will be the Republicans.He is an opportunist after all.
sandee on July 14, 2010 at 2:00 PM
The Illinois candidate (Rino) would be a slam dunk except he supports partial birth abortion, voted for cap and tax, supports “hate crime” legislation, claimed that when he was a teacher he worried about kids bringing guns to class (he taught 5 and 6 year olds), oh and lied like hell, repeatedly, about his military career.
Sorry, I’m voting for the mafia kid in this one. I know exactly what I’ll get out of him.
Blarg the Destroyer on July 14, 2010 at 2:03 PM
If the GOP does manage to pick up seats in the Senate but retain control, we can expect to see an end to the Senate needing 60 votes to pass budgetary matters. The left will most certainly do away with that.
madmonkphotog on July 14, 2010 at 2:05 PM
Even then 51, is a slight majority and they won’t have the power to fix anything, but get the blame for anything that goes wrong.
jeffn21 on July 14, 2010 at 2:06 PM
Pray for rain. The gutless don;t venture out to vote in the rain.
johnnyU on July 14, 2010 at 2:20 PM
Yeah, Nevada is a gone I think. Angle’s poll numbers are collapsing. Come election time she’s going to lose by double digit. The Dems’ has a formidable GOTV machine. Only idiots would believe they could take down Reid without the support and infrastructure of the state GOP.
year_of_the_dingo on July 14, 2010 at 2:22 PM
Dude. Nice shootin’, there.
iurockhead on July 14, 2010 at 2:33 PM
ey can,
Arkansas
North Dakota
Indiana
In the bag.
Pennsylvania
Illinois
Ohio
Nevada
the gop can win all of them, it will take work but they are gettable.
That leaves us at 7.
Next
Washington
Wisconsin
California.
Tougher, but also gettable.
That would be 10 and the numbers would be 51 GOP to 49 Dems.
rob verdi on July 14, 2010 at 1:05 PM
Illinois is a long shot because the GOP nominee-Mark Kirk-is loathed by conservatives. He has a ‘D’ rating on the Second Amendment and an ‘A+’ from NARAL and yes, he does support partial birth abortion.
Recently Kirk has said that if elected he won’t vote to repeal Obamacare because it can’t be repealed or something.
This guy’s so RINO he’ll make Scott Brown look like Coburn!
His opponent’s a corrupt banker with mob ties.
I just love living in Illinois.
//sarc
annoyinglittletwerp on July 14, 2010 at 2:34 PM
Tell that to the “Ted Kennedy” seat. The senate seats not up for election this cycle may be open to recall in some places, may they not?
All the dem seats in contest are up for grabs, people. EVERY LAST ONE.
If the “Kennedy Seat” can be occupied by a republican, the others all can too. (Shame Brown turned out to be a turncoat)
dogsoldier on July 14, 2010 at 2:57 PM
It is shameful that the NY GOP failed to find any credible candidates to run against Gillibrand and Schumer. They are a complete disappointment and the leadership should resign for that fiasco. There may never be a better chance to recapture NY Senators for republicans than this year, but the NYS GOP leadership punted on its potential candidates.
eaglewingz08 on July 14, 2010 at 2:59 PM
All your seats are belong to us.
You have no chance to survive make your time.
Emperor Norton on July 14, 2010 at 3:00 PM
Don’t worry. The Orange One will lose. People need to remember that the St. Pete Times is his cheerleader and this is where most of the positive poll #’s are coming from.
Key West Reader on July 14, 2010 at 3:03 PM
What’s with all the whiners? You really want this gang of muckers to keep control of the government?
Sheesh.
fossten on July 14, 2010 at 3:05 PM
In light of recent findings, is there any way to recall Franken?
parteagirl on July 14, 2010 at 3:08 PM
The primary isn’t until September, right?
Emperor Norton on July 14, 2010 at 3:11 PM
Although it sounds exciting, Democrats would have to make ANOTHER very unpopular mistake or two to lose the Senate. Republicans will also have to play defense.
On the possible pickup side, ND, AR, IN, and DE look like sure-fire pickups for Republicans. In PA, some polls show Toomey (R) ahead, but there’s a recent Quinnipiac poll showing the race tied, so this is by no means guaranteed–if the New Black Panthers can take over Philly polling places, a huge turnout in Philly can drown out the rest of the state.
The most recent Rasmussen polls in CO have Ken Buck (R) leading the two Democrats by 5 and 9 points, respectively, but Lt. Gov. Jane Norton (R) leading Romanoff (D) by only 2 points. Republicans need to elect their strongest candidate (Buck) in the primaries to win this seat.
Illinois is a problem because Mark Kirk (R) has been shooting himself in the foot, and the latest Rasmussen poll has him down by 1 point, 40-39. This one could go either way.
Nevada looked like a sure pickup before the GOP primary, but Sharron Angle is not the strongest candidate against the well-funded Harry Reid, who has pulled within 3 points.
Then there are states where Republican Senators are retiring–NH, OH, MO, KY, and FL. All Republican candidates are comfortably ahead in NH, but the polls are close in OH, and Rasmussen showed Blunt(R) leading Carnahan(D) by only 2 points today, and Conway(D) is now within striking distance of Rand Paul(R), who seems to be too much a chip off the (crazy) old block. As for Florida, the Orange Revolution (Crist-
RI-who knows how he’ll caucus-FL) has cast an easy win into jeopardy.There are chances for upset wins in WI and WA, but they would be UPSETS. As for CA, it will take a HUGE amount of money and a great campaign for Fiorina to take out Boxer in La-La-Land.
Republicans can probably get to 45 Senators without breaking a sweat (ND, AR, IN, DE). PA, CO, IL, and NV are winnable, but our candidates need to run sharp, mistake-free campaigns, and nominating the strongest candidate in CO is crucial. But we also need to play defense in OH, MO, and KY, where there are serious chances of DEMOCRAT pickups. To actually control the Senate, Republicans would have to “run the table” on ALL of the above, have Rubio take out Crist in FL, then win two out of 3 of CA, WA, and WI, a very tall order at best.
IMHO, after the 2010 elections, Republicans will probably have between 46 and 48 Senators. While Scott Brown (MA), Mike Castle (DE), and possibly Mark Kirk(IL) will be RINOs who could vote with Democrats on some issues, Republicans will probably have a strong nucleus of at least 43 Senators who will filibuster anything too radical, and force Democrats to negotiate with them to get anything passed, especially if the Republicans take the House. This would put a huge brake on Obama’s radical agenda, and enable the Republicans to paint Obama and the Democrats as obstructionists to the agenda of the People’s House.
Steve Z on July 14, 2010 at 3:29 PM
Earning Republican majorities in both the House and the Senate is certainly possible in 2010.
But we are all going to have to work really hard to EARN these majorities.
And the work needs to be done every day between now and the primary and general elections.
Educate your liberal friends!
Activate your Conservative friends!
Make sure all of your conservative friends are registered to vote NOW. You will be shocked to find out how many of your friends are not registered to vote when you start talking about it.
Building momentum for real change takes time, so we all really need to be working hard NOW!
wren on July 14, 2010 at 3:54 PM
The House is all that really matters, because that is where all the tax and spending bills must originate.
rockmom on July 14, 2010 at 4:16 PM
Hey, don’t come on here and call people idiots!
silvernana on July 14, 2010 at 4:17 PM
This is a recipe for one thing. ObamaCare will be locked in. No repeal activities will occur at all.
Zomcon JEM on July 14, 2010 at 4:20 PM
Dick morris was on foxnews last night. He pretty much believes the Rs will run the table. He said the issues and passion of the voters are running very anti-lib and anti-incumbent. He firmly believes 51 seats will be Rs in January.
karenhasfreedom on July 14, 2010 at 5:38 PM
Dear Mark1971,
Sorry Marco Rubio wins, finalmente!
Jayrae on July 14, 2010 at 6:15 PM
Don’t be silly. It will NEVER be repealed as long as Obama is in office and there aren’t enough votes to override his veto. So, to even try to say this election is about trying to repeal Obamacare is disingenuous at best.
ButterflyDragon on July 14, 2010 at 6:27 PM
51 is no magic number after which all our problems go away. At 51 the weasels like Ms. Graham and the fair ladies of Maine become the kingmakers. They will take the place of the SEIU head-thug as the most wined-and-dined at the White House.
It will take a supermajority like the progressives have now as well as the presidency for any positive action on our part. Until then all we can do is defensive, which opens us up to charges of partisanship and ‘do-nothing’ by the progressives and their old media allies.
The road back will be long and hard.
slickwillie2001 on July 14, 2010 at 8:22 PM
In Lieu of flowers, donate to the opponent of a Democrat you despise.
flataffect on July 15, 2010 at 1:08 AM
Here in NY we’ll get rid of Up Chuck Schumer come November, he is toast and there are plenty of videos to drive the nails in his coffin.
mixplix on July 15, 2010 at 3:10 AM
http://winwithjmc.com/archives/693
roux on July 15, 2010 at 11:47 AM