Whitman, Fiorina take leads in CA poll

posted at 8:48 am on July 13, 2010 by Ed Morrissey

Many Republicans in California hope that 2010 provides a perfect storm that will allow them to win in a state that went big for Barack Obama in 2008.  With both the governor and Senate seats up for grabs, even one of two would make for a pretty decent election.  Survey USA’s latest poll shows that both Meg Whitman and Carly Fiorina have taken leads in polling for the first time — and Whitman’s lead over Jerry Brown is an eye-popping seven points:

In an election for Governor of California today, 07/12/10, Republican Meg Whitman edges Democrat Jerry Brown 46% to 39%, according to a SurveyUSA poll conducted exclusively for KABC-TV Los Angeles, KPIX-TV San Francisco, KGTV-TV San Diego, and KFSN-TV Fresno. Brown, currently California’s Attorney General, leads 2:1 in the Bay Area, trails in the rest of the state. Whitman, former CEO of eBay, leads among men and affluent voters. The Republican holds 77% of Republican voters. The Democrat holds 64% of Democrats. Independents break 5:4 Republican. Question 1 and 2 on this report show the identical data. Question 1 collapses 9 minor party candidates and “undecided” voters into a single “other / undecided” category. Respondents were asked the “who will you vote for” for Governor question once.

In the race for United States Senate, Democratic incumbent Barbara Boxer and Republican Carly Fiorina are effectively even. Fiorina 47%, Boxer 45%, within the survey’s theoretical margin of sampling error. Twice as many Democrats cross-over to vote Republican as Republicans who cross-over to vote Democrat. The Republican has an ever-so-slight advantage in Greater Los Angeles and in the Central Valley. The Republican carries the Inland Empire 2:1. The Democrat carries the Bay Area 2:1. Question 3 and 4 on this report show the identical data. Question 3 collapses 6 minor party candidates and “undecided” voters into a single “other / undecided” category. Respondents were asked the “who will you vote for” for US Senate question once.

The results in the Senate race are not that different from a recent Field poll.  Boxer edged Fiorina in that survey, but the results from both are really virtual dead heats.  Fiorina wins independents and older voters, which may be the keys in the midterm turnout.  Boxer has a big lead among younger voters, but that is the demographic which will likely not turn out big in an election without Barack Obama at the top of the ticket.

Whitman’s seven-point lead comes as more of a surprise.  She has a 13-point lead among men over Brown, and an almost-even split among women.  She wins every age demo except the youngest voters.  She also comes close to splitting the black and Hispanic vote, and has a 10-point lead among independents.  Brown, who currently serves as Attorney General, can’t get to 40% despite having been in the public eye for decades in California.  It’s an embarrassing result for Brown, who had to wait almost 30 years to try to get California voters to forget his Governor Moonbeam days.

Both Fiorina and Whitman have a lot of resources left to use in this campaign, and there may be some synergy between the two campaigns as it gets closer to November.  If the incumbents — and Brown really does fill that role figuratively — are in this much trouble in July, the state GOP has a real chance at a sweep.


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Hope.

petefrt on July 13, 2010 at 8:53 AM

Whoa! I almost didn’t recognize Fiorina in that picture? Blonde suits her better than gray. Just ask Boxer. That woman knows good hair.

Doughboy on July 13, 2010 at 8:54 AM

Brown will lose, he is too much of an old guard figure and he simply won’t cut it. (By the way, there is no gender gap in that poll as Whitman has erased it, an ominous sign for any democrat) Boxer on the other hand can be beaten, but there are so many entrenched interests backing her it will be tough. With that said by putting these incumbent dems on the hot seat it makes it that much harder for the influence peddlers in the Democratic party to defend everyone.

rob verdi on July 13, 2010 at 8:55 AM

I don’t follow California politics that closely but surely the Democrats in California who have the choice of Jerry Brown are surely thinking what Republicans in Arizona are with the limited choice of McCain/Hayworth.

Marcus on July 13, 2010 at 8:55 AM

I won’t count the votes before they have been cast. This is Cali afterall! We have some of the dumbest electorate in the country.

jbh45 on July 13, 2010 at 8:55 AM

Babs must be thinking Oh Crap!

cmsinaz on July 13, 2010 at 8:57 AM

So we elect Swarzenegger II and Snowe II. I guess it is better that electing people that actually call themselves Democrats.

CC

CapedConservative on July 13, 2010 at 8:57 AM

We shouldn’t be surprised that Boxer is now trailing. Hasn’t Obama gone out there twice to campaign for her?

Doughboy on July 13, 2010 at 8:57 AM

Whoa! I almost didn’t recognize Fiorina in that picture? Blonde suits her better than gray. Just ask Boxer. That woman knows good hair.

Doughboy on July 13, 2010 at 8:54 AM

Wish Whitman did. That hairstyle was very popular in my high school in 1970. She is too old for that look.

Wethal on July 13, 2010 at 8:57 AM

Babs must be thinking Oh Crap!

cmsinaz on July 13, 2010 at 8:57 AM

This poll means nothing. Dead people and felons are never included in the polling.

thomasaur on July 13, 2010 at 8:58 AM

2 to 1 for Brown in the ‘Frisco Bay area, why does it not surprise me that those freaks and communists will never understand how dire things are until their city is literally burning down around them.

Bishop on July 13, 2010 at 8:58 AM

We shouldn’t be surprised that Boxer is now trailing. Hasn’t Obama gone out there twice to campaign for her?

Doughboy on July 13, 2010 at 8:57 AM

And she doesn’t dare ask Algore to come and campaign for her on environmental issues.

Wethal on July 13, 2010 at 8:59 AM

Yes, but how’s the felon voting population polling these days?

Enoxo on July 13, 2010 at 8:59 AM

If this poll keeps up, Jerry and Barbara will be praying (to Gaia or whomever) that Obama opts not to take a fundraising trip/golfing vacation on the West Coast this fall. And that the folks at Reagan National, Dulles and BWI put Pelosi on a ‘no fly’ list when she tries to come home to California.

jon1979 on July 13, 2010 at 8:59 AM

Fiorina? I will most definitely vote against Boxer.

I have no faith in Whitman. I may vote libertarian again. Meg Whitman won’t get sworn into office with a new legislature. I’d rather see the ship go down with Jerry Brown than to have to share the blame with Whitman. Let the SEIU and the teachers union watch as the state crumbles before them while helmed by their political allies. The effects will be much more profound on the psyches of liberal Californians.

Theworldisnotenough on July 13, 2010 at 9:00 AM

Come on ladies! Increase the intensity! Do not ease up!

elifino on July 13, 2010 at 9:00 AM

A prelude to Palin v.Hillary

faraway on July 13, 2010 at 9:01 AM

If the incumbents — and Brown really does fill that role figuratively — are in this much trouble in July, the state GOP has a real chance at a sweep.

It only matters to the states politics if the Republicans can sweep the state legislature. This is where the real problems lie in Caifornia.

glennbo on July 13, 2010 at 9:01 AM

Now just don’t screw it up.

gophergirl on July 13, 2010 at 9:01 AM

Awakening. Buh bye, Senator Ma’am.

Dr.Cwac.Cwac on July 13, 2010 at 9:02 AM

Is there really a gender difference between Brown and Whitman?

She has a 13-point lead among men over Brown

Men recognize her as more of a man then Brown…or at least men respect women who are women, and men who are men…

and an almost-even split among women

Women will accept a “less traditional” man…

right2bright on July 13, 2010 at 9:04 AM

thomasaur on July 13, 2010 at 8:58 AM

my bad

cmsinaz on July 13, 2010 at 9:04 AM

Meg Whitman won’t get sworn into office with a new legislature. I’d rather see the ship go down with Jerry Brown than to have to share the blame with Whitman. Let the SEIU and the teachers union watch as the state crumbles before them while helmed by their political allies. The effects will be much more profound on the psyches of liberal Californians.

Theworldisnotenough on July 13, 2010 at 9:00 AM

Part of me feels that way. But Chris Christie is showing that a conservative Republican can govern with a left-wing legislature without selling out or caving. If Meg Whitman turns out to be more of a Christie than an Ahnuld, there may be hope for California.

Doughboy on July 13, 2010 at 9:04 AM

Nice news to wake up to.

LASue on July 13, 2010 at 9:05 AM

But Fiorina won’t be in the Senate in time to vote for the 2,300 page financial gov’t takeover.

Aw!

Next time!

artist on July 13, 2010 at 9:06 AM

And don’t be surprised when Whitman becomes Arnold’s 3rd term.

The best thing about this, is it forces Dems to spend MILLIONS there.

artist on July 13, 2010 at 9:07 AM

But Ms. Boxer worked so hard for that job! What was that line in Erin Brockovich, something about 600…

elifino on July 13, 2010 at 9:07 AM

The Republican holds 77% of Republican voters. The Democrat holds 64% of Democrats. Independents break 5:4 Republican.

What I have a hard time wrapping my head around is, just are the 23% of R’s not breaking for Whitman? What, they want Guv Moonbeam again, are these morons nuts?

Archimedes on July 13, 2010 at 9:11 AM

Hope for change …

tarpon on July 13, 2010 at 9:15 AM

Boxer gets her butt handed to her on a silver plate, and the General walks up to her and says “how you doin’ ma’am?”

Such pretty dreams.

Squiggy on July 13, 2010 at 9:15 AM

Good luck to them but if I lived in California I would be writing in Lex Luther on every ballot at this point. He had the only viable solution for California’s ills I’ve seen over the past 30 odd years.

Rocks on July 13, 2010 at 9:18 AM

CapedConservative on July 13, 2010 at 8:57 AM

It’s California. Better than Moonbeam and Senator Ma’am, yes.

Eren on July 13, 2010 at 9:20 AM

Now just don’t screw it up.

gophergirl on July 13, 2010 at 9:01 AM

Bottom line.

Just look how well

tru2tx on July 13, 2010 at 9:23 AM

Just look how well

tru2tx on July 13, 2010 at 9:23 AM

Dang.

Just look how well Arnold turned things around. :P

tru2tx on July 13, 2010 at 9:24 AM

Anyone else think that “Moonbeam Jerry” may be taking it in the polls because he used to be mayor of Oakland?

The flare-up in violence and rioting there last week after the trial of that BART cop may have had something to do with it.

teke184 on July 13, 2010 at 9:27 AM

Governor of California?

More like being sentenced to an asylum than winning an office.

trapeze on July 13, 2010 at 9:27 AM

What I have a hard time wrapping my head around is, just are the 23% of R’s not breaking for Whitman? What, they want Guv Moonbeam again, are these morons nuts?

Archimedes on July 13, 2010 at 9:11 AM

What a lot of Republicans don’t understand (including quite a few here) is that not voting for the R is essentially the same as voting for the D.

Kafir on July 13, 2010 at 9:29 AM

BAAAYYYUUUMMMM!

CynicalOptimist on July 13, 2010 at 9:30 AM

Let’s make California beautiful again.

RobCon on July 13, 2010 at 9:30 AM

Replacing two machine party hacks like Brown and Boxer with two CEOs who know how to run a business would be classic and just what Cali needs now.

RobCon on July 13, 2010 at 9:33 AM

Will we get any house seats?

burt on July 13, 2010 at 9:35 AM

Meg Whitman is a lousy candidate.

I doubt she is any different from Arnold in the long run.

jake-the-goose on July 13, 2010 at 9:36 AM

Well that’s nice for the Republican establishment I suppose. Both of those broads are RINO’s and will probably be as effective is Arnold.

echosyst on July 13, 2010 at 9:40 AM

Whitman is a RINO in my book. She is running ads in Spanish that say she opposes the Arizona law.

Lothar on July 13, 2010 at 9:44 AM

Problem is that the leads still aren’t large enough to overcome the inevitable voter fraud and capricious vote counting rule changes…

batter on July 13, 2010 at 9:48 AM

You ain’t gonna get a normal conservative out of this state>

I bashed the Beverly Hills Hotel (actually some guests) but must say the place is worth the cost due to good food, staff and great location. To get an idea about the BHH and California people look at their site. I believe that the place is flying a Mexican flag. It may have been for a group or event.

I will not bore with a list of the strange issues in CA but it would not surprise me to see the state declare war on anyone doing something about illegals or gays. But the place has its own charm, anyway.

IlikedAUH2O on July 13, 2010 at 10:01 AM

Not surprised that Whitman is leading.
Jerry Brown was a bad joke as governor and an absolute travesty as mayor of Oakland (which is almost impossible).
Enough people will turn out to vote against him- Whitman can say anything and it won’t matter.

jjshaka on July 13, 2010 at 10:09 AM

Whitman is a RINO in my book. She is running ads in Spanish that say she opposes the Arizona law.

Lothar on July 13, 2010 at 9:44 AM

Whitman is against the AZ law (See here:
Whitman wary of AZ law), but she wants to do definite things about securing the borders and stopping illegal immigration.

Jenfidel on July 13, 2010 at 10:15 AM

Brown has yet to run ads and Whitman is a RINO at best.

Greek Fire on July 13, 2010 at 10:27 AM

So we elect Swarzenegger II and Snowe II. I guess it is better that electing people that actually call themselves Democrats.

CC

CapedConservative on July 13, 2010 at 8:57 AM

I still say a Republican that votes against half of Obama’s agenda is still better than a Democrat that votes for all of it.

Caiwyn on July 13, 2010 at 10:29 AM

Meg has lost me as a voter.
I am a VERY conservative person living here in california.
She said she was not opposed to the AZ law on imigration, thats the only reason I voted for her.
A friend of mine gave me this link, http://tpmdc.talkingpointsmemo.com/2010/06/meg-whitmans-spanish-ad-she-opposes-arizonas-immigration-law-video.php
Its in spanish, I speak spanish and it is translated correctly. She now opposes the AZ law. I guess I was hoping she was a new style politician that wouldn’t lie to get in. Now I see she is just like the old style ones , saying one thing to one group and something else to another.
I may end up writting my own name in.

I HATE to see jerry moonbeam brown get in but at least you know he is jerk, and now I know she is a liar.

ColdWarrior57 on July 13, 2010 at 10:36 AM

Never underestimate the effect a 12-20% unemployment rate can have on ANY election!

Freddy on July 13, 2010 at 10:47 AM

So we elect Swarzenegger II and Snowe II. I guess it is better that electing people that actually call themselves Democrats.

Could be, but trashing the wicked witch of the west, Boxer, might be worth the cost.

rplat on July 13, 2010 at 10:53 AM

Whitman is a RINO in my book. She is running ads in Spanish that say she opposes the Arizona law.

Lothar on July 13, 2010 at 9:44 AM

Hold your nose if you have to, but vote for her anyway. Somebody has to balance the budget in California, and a CEO can probably do it, so the rest of us in the other 49 states don’t have to foot California’s bills!

Steve Z on July 13, 2010 at 11:04 AM

Where are the anti-Fiorina posters who castigated Sarah Palin for endorsing Carly over Devore?

Might you folks have egg all over your face this morning!

Yet, it is far from being a done deal for Carly, but getting 86% support from conservatives and 83% support from the GOP is awesome for someone just two months ago before the Palin endorsement was thought of as a RINO.

technopeasant on July 13, 2010 at 11:05 AM

Jerry Brown is the one who brought the domination of public employee unions to CA. He signed the bill the day before he left office last time that forces all employees to pay “fair share” dues, member or not. Millions of dollars flowed into union coffers and PACS–and then out to Dem campaigns. That’s why they’re in charge today. They’re rolling in dough.

Hope Whitman brings this out.

PattyJ on July 13, 2010 at 11:09 AM

It would be nice to see Senator Maam go away.

But it will be a Pyrrhic victory if it happens. Carly will be Scott Brown California Version. Her voting record will be indistinguishable from Boxer’s.

So I’m not overly excited by this and if Boxer does win I won’t shed any tears.

angryed on July 13, 2010 at 11:15 AM

Fiorina 47%, Boxer 45%, within the survey’s theoretical margin of sampling error. Twice as many Democrats cross-over to vote Republican as Republicans who cross-over to vote Democrat. The Republican has an ever-so-slight advantage in Greater Los Angeles and in the Central Valley.

Fiorina needs to do very well in the Central Valley to win, but Boxer has given her an issue. Last year, during a drought, a large amount of water was allowed to flow out to sea (to favor fish in the rivers) while the Central Valley’s farms and vineyards were parched for lack of water, and Greenie Boxer backed this policy. Fiorina could win the Central Valley vote big-time by campaigning on a common-sense water-management policy, coordinated with members of Congress and the Senate from neighboring states, to ensure that the Central Valley, and even Los Angeles, have the water they need.

Steve Z on July 13, 2010 at 11:15 AM

There is nothing more dangerous than a cornered Donk.

Don’t get cocky, just keep twisting the knife deeper & deeper until November 3.

Bruno Strozek on July 13, 2010 at 11:28 AM

The Democrat holds 64% of Democrats

If this poll is accurate, moonbeam is toast. Any candidate that cannot get 2/3 of their party to support them is in big trouble

ConservativePartyNow on July 13, 2010 at 12:05 PM

faraway on July 13, 2010 at 9:01 AM

Yeah. I’m super pumped about that one too. 50% negative versus 50% negative. Winner, Obama second term. yay.

Caiwyn on July 13, 2010 at 10:29 AM

Right. Getting beaten with a stick and thrown down a flight of stairs is better than getting beaten with a stick, stabbed and thrown down a flight of stairs. Giving Obama half of what he wants still accomplishes most of what he wants. Case in point, he’s not getting everything he wants now. How’s the country doing? Electing RINO jerks with an R next to their name may make you sleep a little better but you’re not accomplishing anything.

austinnelly on July 13, 2010 at 12:09 PM

These two candidates better have expert poll watchers and lawyers cause if it isn’t a slam dunk in November for either of them, they will be in court litigating the election for months.

eaglewingz08 on July 13, 2010 at 12:16 PM

A prelude to Palin v.Hillary

faraway on July 13, 2010 at 9:01 AM

Yeah. I’m super pumped about that one too. 50% negative versus 50% negative. Winner, Obama second term. yay.

Caiwyn on July 13, 2010 at 10:29 AM

Right. Getting beaten with a stick and thrown down a flight of stairs is better than getting beaten with a stick, stabbed and thrown down a flight of stairs. Giving Obama half of what he wants still accomplishes most of what he wants. Case in point, he’s not getting everything he wants now. How’s the country doing? Electing RINO jerks with an R next to their name may make you sleep a little better but you’re not accomplishing anything.

austinnelly on July 13, 2010 at 12:09 PM

WTF?

You are talking out your backside.

If it’s Palin vs Hillary, that would mean that Obama was gone.

As for Carly, she doesn’t have a voting record, so it’s anybody’s guess. With that said, I seriously doubt Sarah endorsed her, and then put all the extra effort into getting her to this point, if she was some sort of big RINO. What I hear from Carly sounds plenty Conservative to me.

You really should study the talking points you are given before you try and use em.

gary4205 on July 13, 2010 at 12:29 PM

That’s great for them, but I’m really not liking Whitman at all.

In LA, she highlights that she’s against the Arizona law and Proposition 187 through TV ads and billboards… in Spanish. She makes it seem that she’s pro sanctuary cities.

On the other hand, 30 minutes south into Orange County, all of a sudden she forgets that and highlights the need to stop illegal immigration. I’m not a fan of this wishy washy two face stuff.

El_Terrible on July 13, 2010 at 12:42 PM

It only matters to the states politics if the Republicans can sweep the state legislature. This is where the real problems lie in Caifornia.

glennbo on July 13, 2010 at 9:01 AM

And then it only matters if both the legislature and the governor are prepared to practice what Chris Christie is doing in NJ to begin reining in spending and taxes.

ya2daup on July 13, 2010 at 12:47 PM

Now,Carly simply needs to remember that what she says off-mike is important.

AnninCA on July 13, 2010 at 12:55 PM

Never underestimate the power of the GOP to lose elections, and blow big leads.

Ask President McCain about that.

PappyD61 on July 13, 2010 at 12:56 PM

Ask President McCain about that.

PappyD61 on July 13, 2010 at 12:56 PM

One month of ads with Rev. Wright and Bill Ayers and he’d be President. Was very disappointed with his campaign.

El_Terrible on July 13, 2010 at 1:01 PM

Whitman supports Prop 23, the suspension of AL Gore’s Global Warming Solutions Act, whereas AG Brown is wearing the climate change windmill hat.

And he can’t take it off. It’s spot welded to his soul.
Prop 23 is a wallet issue.

Buried in last week’s Field Poll were some nifty data that confirm something Calbuzz has been arguing for quite a while: that California’s pioneering climate-change law, and now Prop. 23 which seeks to suspend it, is a key political marker in the governor’s race and in the Senate race as well.

Whatever you want to say about California politics, for the anybody with a job that wants to keep it, suspending the global warming act is an existential matter.

The Field Poll is propaganda but is shows one thing that rings true with me. It says 61% of California’s electorate doesn’t know that they will get to about Al Gore’s hoax in the next election. That’s by design of the Dem party bosses and their instate media interests.

Hot Air, Malkin, Patterico, Instapundit, and every conservative blogger, this is where you get to prove weather you are worth a damn. Get the message out to the public.
We need that voter awareness of prop 23 number up from 30% all the way to 100% by November.
It’s the only way to save this country from a lame duck congress closed door passage of cap and tax.

papertiger on July 13, 2010 at 4:45 PM

It breaks my heart that I have to vote for either of them because they are both RINO’s but the democrats are marginally worse…..only marginally! They will do what Obama wants at a faster pace then Whitman and Fiorina (I know only one is in congress, but you don’t know how bad Whitman is!) but it will still be done!

Vntnrse on July 14, 2010 at 12:17 AM

Just what we need, two more RINO’s.

Maybe I’ll move my business to Reno.

opusrex on July 14, 2010 at 11:09 AM