Bachmann up nine in MN-06

posted at 10:12 am on July 13, 2010 by Ed Morrissey

It must be Polling Tuesday, as more than a few interesting results have hit the news circuit this morning — and this may be one of the most interesting of all.  Democrats have targeted Michele Bachmann in all three of the cycles in which she has run for Congress, and despite the first two being overwhelmingly Democratic elections, they have come up empty in MN-06.  The latest Survey USA poll from the district strongly suggests that their luck isn’t changing in this midterm:

In MN-06, High-Profile Michele Bachmann Narrowly Atop DFL Challenger, 4 Months To Election: In an election for United States Representative from Minnesota’s 6th Congressional District today, 07/12/10, men and younger voters re-elect incumbent Republican Michele Bachmann to a 3rd term, according to a SurveyUSA poll conducted exclusively for KSTP-TV in Minneapolis-St. Paul.

Bachmann and DFL State Senator Tarryl Clark are tied among voters age 50+. But when voters of all ages are combined, including the youngest voters, Bachmann leads 48% to 39%. There is a striking 33-point Gender Gap. Bachmann, a woman, leads by 25 points among male likely voters. Clark, a woman, leads by 8 points among female likely voters. Of those who support the Tea Party movement, 86% back Bachmann. Of those who oppose the Tea Party movement, 82% back Clark.

KSTP notes correctly that an incumbent under 50% in a poll is usually a red flag, but not when the main challenger is below 40%, and a three-way race makes that dynamic a little different anyway.  They also correctly note that Bachmann hasn’t really begun to campaign, while Clark has TV ads running already:

Jacobs points out the fact Bachmann is short of the 50-percent mark gives Clark some hope, but when Bachmann begins running her TV ads, she’ll make a big effort to define Clark as a tax-raising Democrat.

Clark is a tax-raising Democrat, not exactly what MN-06 usually sends to Congress in any year.  Bachmann just completed a big fundraising quarter that gives her a big war chest to fund those ads, which will flood the zone closer to the election.

KSTP also describes this result as putting Clark “within striking distance,” but nine points is a long distance to strike.  That might be tough to make up in a race for a Republican challenger to a  Democratic incumbent, even this year, but for a Democratic candidate, it’s going to be well-nigh impossible — especially in MN-06.  Don’t expect that to discourage the national party from dumping resources into the race like they did in 2008 and 2006, but it will do nothing but keep those resources from helping elsewhere.


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Next Speaker of the House??

CurtZHP on July 13, 2010 at 10:16 AM

Someone get the unions to dump $10 million into this race.

Doughboy on July 13, 2010 at 10:16 AM

Atta girl.

Give ‘em hell.

Good Lt on July 13, 2010 at 10:17 AM

Racism is on the rise all across the nation.

year_of_the_dingo on July 13, 2010 at 10:19 AM

Bachmann Turnover Drive not doing well.

The Monster on July 13, 2010 at 10:20 AM

You just can’t stop the truth. It must suck to be a liberal.

Fishoutofwater on July 13, 2010 at 10:21 AM

Michele is tremendous.

The male-female gap is the reason Sarah Palin produced her Mama Grizzlies video. Women are far more liberal and vote MamaDemocrats in far higher numbers than men. Palin knows she will never convert the hard-core feminist, but thinks she has a real opportunity with middle class and blue collar woman.

Besides, men like Michele for the same reason they like Sarah – she’s hot.

bw222 on July 13, 2010 at 10:21 AM

vote for Democarts (lousy editing)

bw222 on July 13, 2010 at 10:22 AM

I perused through some of her voting record.
Can’t find for the stimulus bills.
What was her vote on those?

Badger40 on July 13, 2010 at 10:23 AM

In MN-06, High-Profile Michele Bachmann Narrowly Atop DFL Challenger

The use of the word “narrowly” confuses me in the context of 48-39. Nuance?

GISAP on July 13, 2010 at 10:25 AM

Clark thinks she’s going to win just because people in St. Cloud are crazy about her. Too bad Bachmann has never needed St. Cloud to win. Anoka County FTW.

Red Cloud on July 13, 2010 at 10:29 AM

I wrote here that it isn’t that close when you consider that Michele’s lead is 9 points & that there’s only 5 percent of voters who are still undecided.

LFRGary on July 13, 2010 at 10:30 AM

The use of the word “narrowly” confuses me in the context of 48-39. Nuance?

GISAP on July 13, 2010 at 10:25 AM

That is quite “unexpected”.

Doughboy on July 13, 2010 at 10:34 AM

Of those who support the Tea Party movement, 86% back Bachmann. Of those who oppose the Tea Party movement, 82% back Clark.

How, exactly does one “oppose” the Tea Party movement? It’s like “opposing” the sunrise. It’s a self-evident force of human nature that just “is”.

The decade of the Conservative Woman begins. It just is.

Fishoutofwater on July 13, 2010 at 10:34 AM

Bachmann Derangement Syndrome is in full flower over at the StarTribune.

They are doing everything they can to see she loses.

Fortunately, they will be as successful in that effort as they are in keeping & attracting new subscribers.

Heh.

Bruno Strozek on July 13, 2010 at 10:38 AM

I love Michele. Donated to her last time around, and I’m a Californian. If it looks like she needs it I will do it again. Already donated to Rubio and I intend to do the same for Angle in Nevada. The jury is out whether I will donate to Fiorina or Whitman in my own State. I want to help where I think it will do the most for our Country.

sandee on July 13, 2010 at 10:38 AM

Beauty, brains, and principles. How can you NOT like that?

Unless you’re a leftist.

UltimateBob on July 13, 2010 at 10:44 AM

Bachmann, another arrow in Palin’s quiver…Brewer, Fiorna, Rubio, etc.

right2bright on July 13, 2010 at 10:53 AM

I love this lady! Bachmann, Palin, Brewer… Great American woman!

Keemo on July 13, 2010 at 10:53 AM

Eh, the libs have no idea of the monster they have created with PBHO; there are people here who have never shown much interest in politics who are already feverishly writing checks to Bachmann.

Clark is another tax/spend stooge and will get buried in November, still, why do I keep seeing pro-Clark/anti-Bachmann ads right here at HA? This must be an equal opportunity conservative website.

Bishop on July 13, 2010 at 10:53 AM

I perused through some of her voting record.
Can’t find for the stimulus bills.
What was her vote on those?

Badger40 on July 13, 2010 at 10:23 AM

Michele voted against TARP against Stimulus (both times), against ObamaCare. She carries a 100 percent ACU rating. She is the one we have been waiting for. Fortunately she is my representative — I had to move to get into her district.

Dasher on July 13, 2010 at 10:54 AM

Bruno Strozek on July 13, 2010 at 10:38 AM

They are damn near falling dead over Bachmann’s nation of slaves remark from her Colorado trip; it’s sad to see the demise of a once mediocre newspaper.

Bishop on July 13, 2010 at 10:58 AM

Dasher on July 13, 2010 at 10:54 AM

Thanks for the info.
Perhaps if MN had more representatives like her, you Minnesotans would quit moving here to ND!LOL!

Badger40 on July 13, 2010 at 11:00 AM

THE ONLY BALLS IN THE GOP ARE OWNED BY FEMALES !!!

stenwin77 on July 13, 2010 at 11:04 AM

I really, really like this person–Ms. Bachmann. I will support her campaign.

ted c on July 13, 2010 at 11:04 AM

Bachmann leads 48% to 39% is narrow but a 52/48 Obama win is a landslide.

Could you imagine what it would be like if there actually was a liberal bias in the media?

jukin on July 13, 2010 at 11:07 AM

I’ve always liked Michele Bachmann, since I caught her doing those after hours House floor speeches during the gas price hike crisis, before the economic crisis.

She was speaking about domestic energy production and prices with charts. She was very good, like your favorite teacher.

She has only gotten better since then, and now she has Palin behind her too. She will be a force for a long time to come, and that is nothing but good.

She’s “Minnesota Nice”, but tough as steel on the issues. Perfect.

Brian1972 on July 13, 2010 at 11:07 AM

Minnesota 6
Where Democratic campaign
Dollars go to die.

Haiku Guy on July 13, 2010 at 11:08 AM

I love this lady! Bachmann, Palin, Brewer… Great American woman!

Keemo on July 13, 2010 at 10:53 AM

Did I miss the memo where woman can now be singular or plural? It seems I see it used interchangeably everywhere. What gives?

Kafir on July 13, 2010 at 11:10 AM

“Those who oppose the Tea Party movement” better known as communists.

jukin on July 13, 2010 at 11:10 AM

Don’t forget to drop Michele a few coins. Nancy Pelosi and the union thugs have made her the number one target in 2010. She needs all the help and support she can get.

You go girl …

tarpon on July 13, 2010 at 11:11 AM

Hey Dems that smarts don’t it.

CWforFreedom on July 13, 2010 at 11:12 AM

According to the MSM:

Obama wins by less than 6%, it is a landslide of historic proportion.

GOP congresswoman is up by 9%, it’s a nail biter and evidence of an evenly divided electorate.

angryed on July 13, 2010 at 11:12 AM

Someone get the unions to dump $10 million into this race.

Doughboy on July 13, 2010 at 10:16 AM

We can’t watch TV for more than 15 minutes without seeing an anti Bachmann ad. The Unions/Koskids/Moveon have probably dumped 40 Million into this race already.

Our Governors race is going to be the make or break race for MN this year. Bachmann will win even if the lefty’s outspend her 20 to 1. But without Emmer winning the Governors race the DFL will probably own the State House and Senate and our State Budget/Taxes will balloon.

jpmn on July 13, 2010 at 11:22 AM

I also love Michele! Any here from CA where Star Parker is running? Are there any poll numbers on Star? Thanks.
L

letget on July 13, 2010 at 11:23 AM

it’s sad to see the demise of a once mediocre newspaper.

Bishop on July 13, 2010 at 10:58 AM

Damn, that’s cruel…

Heh.

Bruno Strozek on July 13, 2010 at 11:25 AM

No comment from MN felons.

Kissmygrits on July 13, 2010 at 11:29 AM

Bachmann and DFL State Senator Tarryl Clark are tied among voters age 50+. But when voters of all ages are combined, including the youngest voters, Bachmann leads 48% to 39%. There is a striking 33-point Gender Gap. Bachmann, a woman, leads by 25 points among male likely voters. Clark, a woman, leads by 8 points among female likely voters.

This is an unusual poll, since older voters normally tend to be more conservative–Bachmann is only even with Clark among 50+ voters, but has a 9-point lead overall, so she must be doing extremely well with younger voters.

Besides, men like Michele for the same reason they like Sarah – she’s hot.

That probably helps among the younger men, whose hormones run stronger! Still, Bachmann has gotten a lot of media attention lately as an outspoken conservative, and she is a much better speaker now than she was four years ago.

KSTP also describes this result as putting Clark “within striking distance,” but nine points is a long distance to strike.

If the 48% now favoring Bachmann stay with her, she’s in. There are only 13% in this poll who haven’t decided between Bachmann and Clark, and Clark would have to win 69% of them to pull even with Bachmann. If the undecided/other candidate vote splits evenly or stays home, Bachmann wins. Bachmann is a rising star of conservatives, and will probably have lots of money from outside her district.

Steve Z on July 13, 2010 at 11:35 AM

You have a MD contingent Michele. We appreciate you! You go, girl!

Christian Conservative on July 13, 2010 at 11:40 AM

I donate to Michelle. We’ll need her for years to come.

Denverslim on July 13, 2010 at 11:42 AM

Google Michelle Bachmann for images and see just how much the libs hate her.

carbon_footprint on July 13, 2010 at 11:43 AM

But without Emmer winning the Governors race the DFL will probably own the State House and Senate and our State Budget/Taxes will balloon.
jpmn on July 13, 2010 at 11:22 AM

Come on now, Mark Dayton as governor would be a good thing, every time there’s a terrorist attack anywhere in the world he would run home to hide under the bed. Imagine the hilarity.

Bishop on July 13, 2010 at 11:45 AM

Governor Dayton DFL MPLS, Senate Leader Pogemiller DFL MPLS, Speaker Kelliher DFL MPLS.

I have already escaped Murderapolis once. I don’t want our entire state governed by their politicians.

jpmn on July 13, 2010 at 11:55 AM

I want subpoena power in Bachmann’s hands!

I love how she gets in Barney Frank’s grill on the House banking committee. The gay left has to hate her because she gets in their boy’s face.

BuckeyeSam on July 13, 2010 at 12:04 PM

Next Speaker of the House??

CurtZHP on July 13, 2010 at 10:16 AM

…I support that 100%.

Baxter Greene on July 13, 2010 at 12:08 PM

Mama Griz!:)

ohiobabe on July 13, 2010 at 12:14 PM

Next Speaker of the House??

CurtZHP on July 13, 2010 at 10:16 AM

…I support that 100%.

Baxter Greene on July 13, 2010 at 12:08 PM

Right there with ya!

How do we make it happen?

gary4205 on July 13, 2010 at 12:43 PM

So this poll is accurate and matters.

But Palin’s polls do not.

Someone explain this?

Seven Seas on July 13, 2010 at 1:48 PM

why do I keep seeing pro-Clark/anti-Bachmann ads right here at HA? This must be an equal opportunity conservative website.

Bishop on July 13, 2010 at 10:53 AM

There are a lot of dem ads on this site. I guess google will throw up ads anywhere. I am really sick of seeing Robin Carnahan ads though. Makes me want to vote twice against her.

Vince on July 13, 2010 at 1:52 PM

See what can happen when you stick to your guns and dont pander?

Good news. Good for her for standing up for her priniciples and telling them to stick it if they they think she will bend based on polling data.

AnthonyK on July 13, 2010 at 2:04 PM

Up by 9 in a three way race and the MFM says that is ‘close’?

WTF are they smoking?

ajacksonian on July 13, 2010 at 3:04 PM

THE ONLY BALLS IN THE GOP ARE OWNED BY FEMALES !!!

stenwin77 on July 13, 2010 at 11:04 AM

amen

Bachmann – is one of the FEW republicans who speaks conservative values and is actively leading the defining principles of the party

I donated from Louisiana last time
after listening to her on Mark Levin’s show

she’s raising a family, down to earth and pragmatic

more power to her

audiotom on July 13, 2010 at 6:00 PM

Further proof that genuine, sincere, unapologetic Conservatism wins every time.

I got to see Michele speak in person here in Bismarck last December. She is awesome.

Cylor on July 13, 2010 at 8:47 PM

Assuming the GOP/TP coalition wins big, Michelle needs to be made speaker of the House. Boehner may be minority leader now, but he’d didn’t ask/want to bring us to the fiscal responsibility dance. Of all the House members, ’twas Michelle that stood steadfast.

Hmmm, ya reckon some of those campaigning for 2010 might add that to their platform?

AH_C on July 13, 2010 at 8:51 PM

I am really sick of seeing Robin Carnahan ads though. Makes me want to vote twice against her.

Vince on July 13, 2010 at 1:52 PM

You live close enough to Illinois to vote as many times as you’d like.

I’d like to see Speaker of the House Bachmann sitting behind President Palin during a State of the Union address someday. Kathleen Parker would show up in her pink suit and . . . sorry, wrong thread.

NebCon on July 13, 2010 at 10:18 PM

I live in her district (Mahtomedi) and can’t wait to vote for her. Unfortunately this will be the last time I can cause I’ll be moving to the Milwaukee area next year but at least there I can vote for Paul Ryan so it’s all good.

Nelsen on July 13, 2010 at 10:28 PM