Coats up by 21 points in latest Rasmussen poll

posted at 3:35 pm on July 12, 2010 by Ed Morrissey

Democrats in Indiana have tried to paint Dan Coats as a lobbyist interloper while Brad Ellsworth has campaigned on the hope that Indiana voters have a case of collective amnesia.  The latest Rasmussen survey of likely voters shows that strategy succeeding as well as anyone could have predicted.  Coats has a 21-point lead over Ellsworth, who barely makes out of the twenties:

Indiana still has the look of a likely Republican Senate pickup, with former Senator Dan Coats remaining comfortably ahead of his Democratic opponent Brad Ellsworth

The latest Rasmussen Reports telephone survey of Likely Voters in the state finds Coats with 51% support, while Ellsworth earns 30% of the vote, his poorest showing to date. Six percent (6%) favor some other candidate in the race, while 12% remain undecided.

Last month, Coats dropped below 50% but still led Ellsworth 47% to 33%.

The Democratic pushback against Coats has had its results — and all bad.  The changes to each candidate are within the margin of error, but the next change is seven points in Coats’ favor.  That’s not exactly Bradmentum.

Despite their attempts to paint Coats as an eeeeeeevil lobbyist, voters have a strong favorable impression of Coats, 56/25, for a +31.  Ellsworth is above water in favorability but with weaker numbers, 47/33, for a +14.  Among independents it’s only 36/32, with only 7% saying “very favorable.”  Indies like Coats somewhat better, 47/31, with nine percent “very favorable.”  That only gives Coats a 2-point advantage in the head-to-head among indies, though, 34/32.

Coats will get help on the issues.  Sixty percent favor repeal of ObamaCare, as do 56% of independents.  Fifty-nine percent favor passage of an immigration-enforcement law in Indiana modeled on Arizona’s, and half of independents agree (while only 31% disagree).

Most problematic for Ellsworth, voters in Indiana dislike Barack Obama, who has a 41/58 job approval rating, with 45% strongly disapproving.  Independents are only slightly less unhappy, with a 42/57 and 40% strongly disapproving.  Republican Gov. Mitch Daniels, on the other hand, has a 58/38 approval rating, although that splits 51/49 among indies.

Ellsworth has a long way to go to catch up to Coats, and so far, he’s going in the wrong direction.  That’s because the Democrat is going against the grain of Indiana’s consensus, and as long as that remains true, he will continue to lag far behind Coats.


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Sweaters down by 5.

Daggett on July 12, 2010 at 3:39 PM

Most problematic for Ellsworth, voters in Indiana dislike Barack Obama, who has a 41/58 job approval rating, with 45% strongly disapproving.

It’s shameful that 41% of the voters in Indiana are so completely oblivious to what’s going on in the world around them.

UltimateBob on July 12, 2010 at 3:41 PM

ObamaCare, such a winner for the Dems!! People just have to find out what is in it, and then they will love it!/

txmomof6 on July 12, 2010 at 3:41 PM

Most problematic for Ellsworth, voters in Indiana dislike Barack Obama, who has a 41/58 job approval rating, with 45% strongly disapproving.

Damn! And Obama actually won Indiana in 2008.

Doughboy on July 12, 2010 at 3:42 PM

the entire democrat party along with dear leader are going against the grain of the american people…

cmsinaz on July 12, 2010 at 3:42 PM

You voted against the will of your own constituents, Ellsworth. That has it’s consequences. Deal with it!

capejasmine on July 12, 2010 at 3:42 PM

Tidal Wave…

PatriotRider on July 12, 2010 at 3:43 PM

I just saw Ellsworth’s first tv ad when it aired over the weekend in Fort Wayne, and it’s a doozy. Ellsworth never mentions that he is a Democrat or a sitting representative. Instead, he attempts to portray himself as an outsider who will who will reign in Washington spending and special interests. The ad was just shameless.

Bru on July 12, 2010 at 3:43 PM

Must be Monday. Ed is on fire; posts every 30 minutes! Can’t keep up.

Electrongod on July 12, 2010 at 3:45 PM

I AM a Hoosier and Ellsworth hasn’t a snowball’s chance in hell of winning.

You know, many of us Hoosiers may live in the middle of a corn field or at least near one, but we’re not dumb nor do we forget.

Coats was not my first choice in the Indiana GOP primary, but I’m definitely voting for him in November 2010!

Oink on July 12, 2010 at 3:46 PM

Brad Ellsworth will fight hard against “they,” and that is what we need in a politician…someone will to slay “they.”

WashJeff on July 12, 2010 at 3:47 PM

It’s shameful that 41% of the voters in Indiana are so completely oblivious to what’s going on in the world around them.

UltimateBob on July 12, 2010 at 3:41 PM

And how is this different than people all over the US?

Oink on July 12, 2010 at 3:48 PM

Damn! And Obama actually won Indiana in 2008.

He won because his Acorn cronies pulled them out of the “Crack Houses ” in Gary to vote for him. You’ve still got the Birkenstock Bunch in Bloomington with their noses up his rear. Don’t believe their tactics will work this time.

rook105 on July 12, 2010 at 3:48 PM

This may end up being a “good” showing for a democrat, the way things are working out.

right2bright on July 12, 2010 at 3:49 PM

The changes to each candidate are within the margin of error, but the next change is seven points in Coats’ favor. That’s not exactly Bradmentum.

heheh! that’s funny!…nice one

ted c on July 12, 2010 at 3:51 PM

He won because his Acorn cronies pulled them out of the “Crack Houses ” in Gary to vote for him. You’ve still got the Birkenstock Bunch in Bloomington with their noses up his rear. Don’t believe their tactics will work this time.

rook105 on July 12, 2010 at 3:48 PM

He barely won Indiana last time. I think it was by 1 percentage point. He’ll get wiped out in 2012. And those are 11 electoral votes too.

Doughboy on July 12, 2010 at 3:52 PM

Coats is making the scorecard look good, but these old-timers worry me. Today, new faces and young blood seem to be the wave of the future for the GOP. He’ll win as a Republican, I just hope he acts like a Republican after he’s sworn in…

joejm65 on July 12, 2010 at 3:53 PM

I just hope he acts like a Republican after he’s sworn in…

joejm65 on July 12, 2010 at 3:53 PM

I’m fairly sure he’ll act like your typical republican. Don’t worry about that. ;)

lorien1973 on July 12, 2010 at 3:56 PM

It’s shameful that 41% of the voters in Indiana are so completely oblivious to what’s going on in the world around them.

UltimateBob on July 12, 2010 at 3:41 PM

That 41% most likely comes from two counties in the entire state: Marion and Lake.

volnation on July 12, 2010 at 3:57 PM

And how is this different than people all over the US?

Oink on July 12, 2010 at 3:48 PM

The only slight difference is the percentage, as far as I can tell.

UltimateBob on July 12, 2010 at 4:04 PM

I saw my first Brad Ellsworth commercials here in Indaina last week and he’s running against Pelosi and Reid. LOL, no kidding he running against the Dem policies and administration he’s been a part of in the House for the last two years.

tommyboy on July 12, 2010 at 4:08 PM

That’s because the Democrat is going against the grain of Indiana’s consensus, and as long as that remains true, he will continue to lag far behind Coats.

No, no, don’t say that Ed. We don’t want him to realize that. We want him to blindly keep thinking it’s just that the message hasn’t been fully articulated to the people! Don’t give him any ideas, please!

Bob's Kid on July 12, 2010 at 4:14 PM

I’m fairly sure he’ll act like your typical republican. Don’t worry about that. ;)
lorien1973 on July 12, 2010 at 3:56 PM

Now I’m worried. :-/

joejm65 on July 12, 2010 at 4:19 PM

It’s a shame two conservatives split the primary vote, giving Coats (who has RINO tendencies) the nomination.

Indiana’s other “Republican” Senator – Richard Lugar – is a joke.

bw222 on July 12, 2010 at 4:25 PM

Typical Republican, get elected, get amnesia as to why you’re there and why people voted for you.

Mojave Mark on July 12, 2010 at 4:46 PM

It’s a shame two conservatives split the primary vote, giving Coats (who has RINO tendencies) the nomination.

Coats will probably vote much more conservatively than Evan Bayh!

Coats will get help on the issues. Sixty percent favor repeal of ObamaCare, as do 56% of independents.

How did that vote for ObamaCare work out for ya, Brad? Maybe he wishes he had run for re-election to the House!

A 21-point lead (and a majority) at this point in the campaign is huge. At this point, Coats just needs to play defense, attacking Ellsworth on his ObamaCare vote and then run on his own record, and work to turn out the rural vote.

Obama has lost his coattails–now we have Coats’ tales.

Steve Z on July 12, 2010 at 4:57 PM

Prior to ’08 IN was safely the deepest of red states. Now if only Fox will press ahead, albeit belatedly, with the voter fraud and caucus manipulation stories it will return to being so. You can make a direct tie by proximity to corruption and thuggish bully tactics and relation geographically to Illinois. None more so than Iowa where Obama went from usbet.com odds of -175/+1500 with HRC to an actual contender, but every other abutting state as well where Team ‘O’ could bus in astro-turf most effectively and little cost. Why so little cost?

Why thats easy as their allies in the NEA provided free school busses at tax-payer expense, something that happens regularly across the country wherever Dhims need to bring ACORN & SEIU heat. How the hell do you think that got from DC to the bankers house in VA? Or how they conveniently arrived in mass at the townhalls last year?

Wake up people, this is a war and the Marquis of Quennsbury rules do not apply, until we face this reality we are going to be fighting with one hand behind our collective back.

Archimedes on July 12, 2010 at 4:57 PM

but the next change
ED

Think you meant net doubt you know the next change.

Steveangell on July 12, 2010 at 6:09 PM

He’ll get there just in time to sit on the same side of the aisle with Brown, Snow and all the other rinos.

Kissmygrits on July 12, 2010 at 6:54 PM

Ellsworth’s ad there is shameless. Shameless.

Marcus on July 12, 2010 at 8:46 PM