Gallup: Dems halt party-ID slide

posted at 8:48 am on June 30, 2010 by Ed Morrissey

In their latest quarterly survey of party affiliation, Gallup gives Democrats their first piece of good news in over a year, albeit only a slender reed.  The slide in Democratic affiliation appears to have stopped, leaving Republicans within the margin of error when including leaners, 46/43.  However, since Barack Obama took office, their advantage in actual identification without leaners has also dropped into the margin of error, 32/28:

For the first time since President Barack Obama took office, the percentage of Americans identifying as Democrats or leaning Democratic held steady in a quarter’s worth of Gallup poll data. Prior to the second quarter of 2010, the percentage aligning themselves with the Democratic Party had declined at least slightly each quarter since early 2009.

With 46% of Americans identifying either as Democrats or as independents who say they lean to the Democratic Party, and 43% identifying as Republican or leaning Republican, Democrats now hold a 3 percentage-point advantage in party affiliation. The gap between the two parties had shrunk from 13 points when Obama took office to just 1 point in the first quarter of this year. That 1-point gap in the first quarter of 2010 was the smallest Gallup had recorded in five years.

The news isn’t all that good for Democrats.  They have lost ground in actual party identification and in independent leaners over the last 18 months.  The GOP has taken a slight lead among the latter, although still within the MOE.  While the Democrats gained a couple of points from the last survey overall, it came from a slight shift away from the GOP among those independents (again, within the MOE) and not any gains of their own.

Gallup notes that this means that turnout will be key — and Republicans have two advantages in the midterm on this point.  First, the GOP traditionally does better at turnout anyway.  (This poll was among the general adult population, which usually favors Democrats but does worst as a predictive model for turnout.)  More importantly, Republicans are far more enthusiastic in this midterm election than Democrats, and so are independents with antipathy towards the current Democratic leadership.  If the jobs numbers come in negative on Friday as expected, that will only increase.

This is another key indicator to remember when looking at sampling in media polling.  With leaners, Gallup found a 3-point edge for Democrats, and without leaners a 4-point edge.  Next time we see an eight- or nine-point sampling edge for Democrats (or worse), we’ll be sure to use this as a reference point.


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who’s up for some custard?

ted c on June 30, 2010 at 8:50 AM

@ted: Don’t be a smart@ss.

Spanky on June 30, 2010 at 8:56 AM

I think H/A should have a special place for polling results (kinda like RCP). Otherwise, pass the custard, ted.
Randy

williars on June 30, 2010 at 8:56 AM

For the first time since President Barack Obama took office, the percentage of Americans identifying as Democrats or leaning Democratic held steady in a quarter’s worth of Gallup poll data.

In other words, Gallup learned a lesson from R2K: sometimes the change relative to the previous poll is 0.

LastRick on June 30, 2010 at 8:57 AM

When I go in the voting booth, I never have the option to pick a generic repub over a generic libtard. I don’t think this type of poll makes a rat’s ass difference in the real world. What if the vast majority of the liberal supporters reside in a few blue states? We could see a massive nationwide landslide victory in favor of the repub’s even if the hypothetical poll indicates the parties are at parity.

David in ATL on June 30, 2010 at 8:57 AM

I don’t trust Gallup one bit.

Keemo on June 30, 2010 at 9:00 AM

Quick! Someone check to see if people from Research 2000 just got a job at Gallup!

apostic on June 30, 2010 at 9:01 AM

Turn out is always key. Let us hope that there is an election to turn out!

abobo on June 30, 2010 at 9:02 AM

Clearly, this is because the gun issue is off the table.

Vyce on June 30, 2010 at 9:06 AM

Maybe some kid could ask Bob “Hooooeeeryewwwww?” Etheridge (D-NC) how he feels about this poll?

ted c on June 30, 2010 at 9:08 AM

Maybe it’s because the GOP Leadership SUCKS SO BAD in Congress?

NNNNNAAAAH, Couldn’t be that.

PappyD61 on June 30, 2010 at 9:11 AM

The slide in Democratic affiliation appears to have stopped

Captain Kickass must’ve dazzled with a few Niebuhr quotes.

CDeb on June 30, 2010 at 9:12 AM

The bottom line is what’s left in people’s pocket books at the end of the day. With unemployment so high, there will a lots of voters with lots of time on their hands to show up at the polls in November. Watching the democrats spending like drunken sailors for more than two years should give the electorate every reason to pull the handle for those who promise to put an end to this out-of-control spending madness.

Rovin on June 30, 2010 at 9:13 AM

Headline: “Obama changes US calendar – November deleted”

faraway on June 30, 2010 at 9:19 AM

Historically, Dems have to be up by about +5 to make an even race of an election, given that Repubs are more dutiful about voting. When they are even, look for a Repub landslide.

With the exposure Dems have on a number of fronts, the chance for further sliding by November is almost a cinch.

Chaz on June 30, 2010 at 9:23 AM

… but when you’re losing Bob Herbert, it’s still pretty bad …

It’s getting harder and harder for most Americans, looking honestly at the state of the nation, to see the glass as half full. And that’s why the public opinion polls contain nothing but bad news for Barack Obama and the Democrats.
The oil gushing into the Gulf of Mexico, the war in Afghanistan and, above all, the continuing epidemic of joblessness have pushed the nation into a funk. All the crowing in the world about the administration’s legislative accomplishments — last year’s stimulus package, this year’s health care reform, etc. — is not enough to lift the gloom.

J_Crater on June 30, 2010 at 9:41 AM

who’s up for some custard?

ted c on June 30, 2010 at 8:50 AM

@ted: Don’t be a smart@ss.

Spanky on June 30, 2010 at 8:56 AM

BITE – ME

dhunter on June 30, 2010 at 9:43 AM

So Gallup is sayin Pinnochio STOPPED THE LEAK?

Me Thinks NOT!

Plug the Dam hole Jugears!

dhunter on June 30, 2010 at 9:46 AM

ACORN as usual has a 192% to 0% lead for Democrats.

angryed on June 30, 2010 at 9:52 AM

Isn’t this to be expected, it’s now summer. People aren’t available as much, nor are they paying as much attention to politics as usual, plus congressional Ds aren’t trying to jam something super contraversial through currently. When September arrives things will begin to coalese, oil spill impact, O-care, cap & tax, etc., etc., etc., plus the actual campaign push will begin. I would be surprised if things don’t begin to slide again for the Ds.

lizzie beth on June 30, 2010 at 9:53 AM

Well, to be fair we should give historical context.

Many Germans were slow to sever their identification with the Nazi party.

Many Russians still maintain party identification with the Communist party even after the collapse of its political infrastructure.

So basically, when an idea gets embedded deep in one’s heart, a person tends to cling to it bitterly.

jeff_from_mpls on June 30, 2010 at 9:57 AM

And on Thursday Urkel (pinnochio) is gonna give a speech on Immigration that otta help them Demrat numbers!

Hey Pinnochio just do your job
Stop the dam leak!
Secure the border!
BITE-ME!

IMPEACH THE IMPOSTER!

dhunter on June 30, 2010 at 10:01 AM

How come I never get polled? I don’t know if what they are reporting on is really more of a “Sampling” than a Real Poll.

Dr Evil on June 30, 2010 at 10:06 AM

Gallup is the same polling outfit that told us that 42% of adults identify themselves as “conservative” and only 20% call themselves “liberal”. Now they say that 43% are Republicans or Republican-leaning, and 46% are Democrat or Democrat-leaning.

Assuming that all the liberals vote Democrat, there are 26% of Democrat-leaners who are NOT liberal, but only 1% of Republican-leaners who are not conservative. How many of those Democrat-leaning “moderates” are PO’d over massive deficits, massive tax hikes, massive job losses, cuts in Medicare, ready to tell Obama, just this once, STOP ALREADY? How many of them are unsure whether Obama, Pelosi, and Reid have gone too far, and won’t vote?

Republican candidates for Congress need to run on one issue–fiscal responsibility–and win big.

Steve Z on June 30, 2010 at 10:22 AM

Don’t believe a word of anything you read in a Gallup poll.Their sample always is in favor of more democrats and left leaning so called independents.

thmcbb on June 30, 2010 at 10:25 AM

Don’t believe a word of anything you read in a Gallup poll.Their sample always is in favor of more democrats and left leaning so called independents.

thmcbb on June 30, 2010 at 10:25 AM

..no, quite the contrary. Get all lathered up and look around for a candidate to work for this Fall. Donate what little money you have left after these politicians have tanked the economy and taxed you to death. Stay tuned into what’s going on. Be ready to *really* kick some ass.

This is “Liberal Echo Chamber” stuff and it pacifies them. We want them to become somnolent while we become energized fire-breathers carrying torches and pitch forks.

The War Planner on June 30, 2010 at 10:33 AM

Well you know.. there is eventually a bottom when you’re digging!

Zippy_Slug on June 30, 2010 at 11:57 AM

Sorry but next to DKOS polls, Gallup is the most biased in favor of democraps. So, until Rasmussen tells me different, I won’t believe this or any other Gallup numbers. This poll is part of dem psych ops to chill repubs from their enthusiasm and to buck up democraps.

eaglewingz08 on June 30, 2010 at 12:00 PM

This is disheartening to learn. If Obama can do all the damage he’s done and the polls are just even, we’ll never have a chance. I don’t see how this can possibly be right, what with even people on the left starting to turn on him.

silvernana on June 30, 2010 at 12:29 PM

Maybe it’s because the GOP Leadership SUCKS SO BAD in Congress?

NNNNNAAAAH, Couldn’t be that.

PappyD61 on June 30, 2010 at 9:11 AM

-
Ummm, ‘suck’, like other terms implying a relative change in some parameter, e.g. pressure, can only apply in a comparison of like qualities.
-
Are you suggesting that the GOP leadership sucks worse than that provided by Nancy Ried and Hairy Pelosi, and more importantly than in Congress, sucks worse than the ‘leadership’ provided by young Barry?

applebutter on June 30, 2010 at 12:34 PM

Yeah, I’m not buying the poll Ed. We see them skewed way to often to believe any of them anymore.

What’s the sample, 20% conservative? LOL!

There are how many ways to make a poll come out the way you want it?

dogsoldier on June 30, 2010 at 2:39 PM

we’ve gotta’ hammer ‘em and hammer ‘em hard and continuously. the dems/libs give no quarter and frankly we never ask for it. we’ve seen time and again that they will crumble under a strong attack—let’s not give them any breathing room.

devadevadasa on June 30, 2010 at 3:09 PM