Daily Kos to sue Research 2000 over polling fraud

posted at 2:42 pm on June 29, 2010 by Ed Morrissey

Many people have commented on the lack of accuracy coming from the Research 2000 polls commissioned by the Daily Kos, an effort to elevate the Kos community site from a blog to a news site.  Most of the blame for the outliers was placed on the site’s activist owner, but in an announcement today, Markos Moulitsas said that the polling firm had “defrauded” him, and that a lawsuit will follow in a couple of days:

I have just published a report by three statistics wizards showing, quite convincingly, that the weekly Research 2000 State of the Nation poll we ran the past year and a half was likely bunk. …

We contracted with Research 2000 to conduct polling and to provide us with the results of their surveys. Based on the report of the statisticians, it’s clear that we did not get what we paid for. We were defrauded by Research 2000, and while we don’t know if some or all of the data was fabricated or manipulated beyond recognition, we know we can’t trust it. Meanwhile, Research 2000 has refused to offer any explanation. Early in this process, I asked for and they offered to provide us with their raw data for independent analysis — which could potentially exculpate them. That was two weeks ago, and despite repeated promises to provide us that data, Research 2000 ultimately refused to do so. At one point, they claimed they couldn’t deliver them because their computers were down and they had to work out of a Kinkos office. Research 2000 was delivered a copy of the report early Monday morning, and though they quickly responded and promised a full response, once again the authors of the report heard nothing more. …

I want to feel stupid for being defrauded, but fact is Research 2000 had a good reputation in political circles. Among its clients the last two years have been KCCI-TV in Iowa, WCAX-TV in Vermont, WISC-TV in Wisconsin, WKYT-TV in Kentucky, Lee Enterprises, the Concord Monitor, The Florida Times-Union, WSBT-TV/WISH-TV/WANE-TV in Indiana, the St. Louis Post-Dispatch, the Bergen Record, and the Reno Gazette-Journal. In fact, just last week, in an email debate about robo-pollsters, I had a senior editor at a top DC-based political publication tell me that he’d “obviously” trust Research 2000 more than any automated pollsters, such as SurveyUSA. I didn’t trust Research 2000 more than I trusted SUSA (given their solid track record), but I did trust them. I got burned, and got burned bad.

Give Markos Moulitsas some credit for full disclosure, at least.  It would have been very easy for dKos to quietly drop Research 2000 as their pollster and put their resources into a more worthy vendor without ever explaining why.  That would have certainly cost them less than hiring attorneys to sue the pollster.  Given the fact that the firm claims to be operating “out of a Kinko’s office,” it seems less than certain that Markos will ever see much of his money returned to him, assuming he can prove fraud, which is not an easy task.

I’m also not inclined to crow over the failure of dKos polling.  That ship had sailed long ago anyway, and Markos knew it, which is why he launched an independent study of the data.  Political campaigns commission their own polls and so do traditional media outlets.  If Markos had the resources to do the same, why not?  It allowed him to play with the bigger outlets, although in the end the task proved beyond his ability to manage it.  Still, one never knows until one tries.

He also makes another good point:

Sure, our friends on the Right will get to take some cheap shots, and they should take advantage of the opportunity. But ultimately, this episode validates the reason why we released the internal numbers from Research 2000 — and why every media outlet should do the same from their pollster; without full transparency of results, this fraud would not have been uncovered. As difficult as it has been to learn that we were victims of that fraud, our commitment to accuracy and the truth is far more important than shielding ourselves from cheap shots from the Right.

Again, I’m disinclined to take cheap shots, mainly because Research 200o did have an existing clientele that lent respectability to their product.  It’s also important to note that this is Markos’ take, and that the firm itself will probably have a very different position on the end of their relationship.  But Markos is right when he warns that pollsters should provide full transparency for their surveys so that people can assess performance properly, such as sample size, question formulation, demographics, and so on.  Without that information, polls can easily manipulate both respondents and readers alike.

The only criticism that comes to mind is the lawsuit itself.  Why bother?  Markos would be better advised to cut his losses.

Update: Research 2000 denies all of the allegations:

R2K president Del Ali tells TPMmuckraker in an email, “I have much to say, however, I am following my attorney Richard Beckler’ ESQ’s counsel and referring all questions to him. I will tell you unequivocally that we conducted EVERY poll properly for the Daily Kos.”

Update (AP): I’ve linked Kos’s R2000 polls on HA before so I owe our readers a mea culpa for having passed along (possibly) bad info. Mea culpa!

That book of his is going to be rather highly nuanced indeed, huh?


Related Posts:

Breaking on Hot Air

Blowback

Note from Hot Air management: This section is for comments from Hot Air's community of registered readers. Please don't assume that Hot Air management agrees with or otherwise endorses any particular comment just because we let it stand. A reminder: Anyone who fails to comply with our terms of use may lose their posting privilege.

Trackbacks/Pings

Trackback URL

Comments

Comment pages: 1 2

I’m thinking that Markos has let his anger get the best of him and will be hit with a huge counter-suit right in his kisser.

Proving fraud to a jury when the evidence is data sets and mathamatical models and outliers and means and mediums and averages…good night nurse. If he can’t prove fraud, he’ll be liable for damaging this firms rep in such a public fashion.

DrW on June 29, 2010 at 3:54 PM

Under the bus.

fossten on June 29, 2010 at 3:57 PM

But I was looking for gay porn.

Oh. Wait. Forget I said that.

lorien1973 on June 29, 2010 at 3:51 PM

That’s on the WH site- there’s a special ‘down low’ section where young, male potential aides can post their ‘qualification’ photos and their ‘why I love barry’ essays.

Monica on June 29, 2010 at 3:59 PM

::walking away whistling::

Patrick S on June 29, 2010 at 3:38 PM

Actually, it’s not Hannity’s fault. The caption said “Captain Kickass meets Sergeant Smartass” and was written by Ed. Would be a natural assumption that Ed coined both titles.

fossten on June 29, 2010 at 4:04 PM

I’m thinking that Markos has let his anger get the best of him and will be hit with a huge counter-suit right in his kisser.

Proving fraud to a jury when the evidence is data sets and mathamatical models and outliers and means and mediums and averages…good night nurse. If he can’t prove fraud, he’ll be liable for damaging this firms rep in such a public fashion.

DrW on June 29, 2010 at 3:54 PM

No, sounds like this will be a slam dunk (safe link via ace):

1. A large set of number pairs which should be independent of each other in detail, yet almost always are either both even or both odd.
2. A set of polls on separate groups which track each other far too closely, given the statistical uncertainties.

3. The collection of week-to-week changes, in which one particular small change (zero) occurs far too rarely. This test is particularly valuable because the reports exhibit a property known to show up when people try to make up random sequences.

RINO in Name Only on June 29, 2010 at 4:04 PM

But his thinking and reasoning won’t be changed, it is just that there is no number to back them up.

Is he going back to his old postings and rethink what he wrote?

Sir Napsalot on June 29, 2010 at 4:09 PM

“without full transparency of results, this fraud would not have been uncovered”

A great quote to bank for the next time Markos and his minions defend the opacity of the AGW zealots and their refusal to release the data paid for with public funds.

Surely if it’s good policy for a few thousands spent by a private second-tier blog, it must be outstanding policy for billions of taxpayer dollars spent to force decisions about trillions of dollars in global economic activity?

drwilliams on June 29, 2010 at 4:15 PM

The biggest mistake he ever made wasn’t buying Research 2000 data, it was appearing on MSLSD where he came off like a rabid chipmunk.

After witnessing his emotional verbosity for the first time in the lead up to the election, my reaction was – ahem, just like I thought. What a warped little dink.

ontherocks on June 29, 2010 at 4:19 PM

I want to feel stupid for being defrauded, but fact is Research 2000 had a good reputation in political circles. Among its clients the last two years have been KCCI-TV in Iowa, WCAX-TV in Vermont, WISC-TV in Wisconsin, WKYT-TV in Kentucky, Lee Enterprises, the Concord Monitor,

LOL, here in NH, the Concord Monitor is known as the farthest-Left “newspaper” in the state, and WCAX-TV in Vermont has always been something of a hack operation.

Del Dolemonte on June 29, 2010 at 4:20 PM

2) What does this mean about other polling shops used by the MSM? Are their pollsters fudging data to push a MSM-driven ideological message? We all know that MSM types love to crow about every new poll number, no matter how funky the sampling, to push a message or engage in some “epistemic closure.”

Outlander on June 29, 2010 at 2:50 PM

Personally, I’ve always felt (and stated here before IIRC) that one way the other polls push the liberal message is to under-report the disapproval number. For example, take the current batch of numbers sitting over at RCP. The standard deviation for O’s approval is 1.498; STDEVP for his disapproval is 2.71. Why? Because Rasmussen’s number is higher than all the other polls by far, even 8 more than Pew and CBS. I think the non-Ras polls do this because 1) with a tight grouping on Favorability (which is the number we more often than not look at), it makes their poll seem more legitimate and 2) by suppressing Unfavorability, they suppress the spread, thereby keeping Obama “above water”.

Maybe one way they get away with this is by not asking a follow-up to hesitant responders (in a sense, they allow more voters to be “undecided”). Meanwhile, Rasmussen makes more respondents commit one way or the other. The end result of this trick can be seen graphically if you look at the data on RCP from June 15th – June 27th. As Obama’s approval number (black line) dropped, his disapproval (red line) did as well. How well did they correlate? 0.58 over that range, which means “Strong Correlation”. How likely is that — that as voters move from the Approval column, they move out of the Disapproval column as well? Highly unlikely I would think; instead, IMHO pollsters are responding to the drop in approval by suppressing disapproval to maintain a desired spread.

P.S. Sorry for all the math, but polling forensics is just really cool.

LastRick on June 29, 2010 at 4:22 PM

Wasn’t it just a few weeks ago that the far-left launched a media campaign to try to discredit Rasmussen?

OxyCon on June 29, 2010 at 4:28 PM

I had wondered where the Favorability rating charts had gone. I just figured they’d gone below 50%, so he had to take it down to avoid embarrassing the president.

Greek Fire on June 29, 2010 at 4:31 PM

I know I won’t get an answer, but I am about to shoot an e-mail to the Leftist who runs PollingReport.com, which falsely labels itself as, and I quote:

An independent, nonpartisan resource
on trends in American public opinion.

They have happily been running the Kos poll since it started-but refuse to publish polling results from Rasmussen.

When I asked them last year why they left out the pollster who nailed the 2008 election better than any other polling outfit, they refused to answer.

Del Dolemonte on June 29, 2010 at 4:31 PM

Has anybody dug out any juicy Markos quotes defending his Research 2000 back before he turned on them? I recall a lot of that kind of talk and a lot of trashing of Rasmussen. Seems it would be kind of nice to see what Markos said then compared to now

MaxMBJ on June 29, 2010 at 4:34 PM

What? You mean Obama ISN’T at 60% approval in the polls?? LOL

ddrintn on June 29, 2010 at 4:36 PM

If the Daily Kos wants to sue for fraud and manipulation of data, he should go after Phil “Hide the Decline” Johnson and Michael “Hockey Stick” Mann of WeatherGate infamy. It’s a lot easier to prove fraud when published data contradicts FACTS (such as measured temperatures) than opinions, such as voter preferences of candidates.

Steve Z on June 29, 2010 at 4:37 PM

(2) What does this mean about other polling shops used by the MSM? Are their pollsters fudging data to push a MSM-driven ideological message? We all know that MSM types love to crow about every new poll number, no matter how funky the sampling, to push a message or engage in some “epistemic closure.”

Outlander on June 29, 2010 at 2:50 PM

Many of us here, with Ed leading the way, have regularly exposed the fraudulent “polling” techniques used by some of the other polling outfits. The C-BS/NY Fishwrap “Poll” regularly over-sampled 14% to 19% more Democrats than Republicans in order to get the results they wanted, and ABC/WaPo has also done the same.

And last fall, al-AP actually had the gall to run a “poll” whose polling “sample” had twice as many Democrats as Republicans.

Dr. Goebbels would approve.

Del Dolemonte on June 29, 2010 at 4:40 PM

Seems to me Kos has everything to gain by this. Recovering some reputation and possibly some loot as well. And if it costs him money, the reputation thing may be worth it anyway, if he has a case.

paul1149 on June 29, 2010 at 4:40 PM

By his own admission Moulitsas didn’t commission his poll about conservatives from R2000 until after he had already written his book about how revolting conservatives are. He need evidence to back up his conclusions, and presto! R2000 delivered exactly what he needed. (See Ed’s final link above for Moulitsas’ version of events.)

Looks like collusion of some sort to me. Why would Moulitsas spend the money commissioning a special poll if he wasn’t confident that the results would be what he needed?

Missy on June 29, 2010 at 4:41 PM

It’s hard to tell which one looks more puerile, Obama or Moulitsas.

Schadenfreude on June 29, 2010 at 4:45 PM

while we don’t know if some or all of the data was fabricated or manipulated beyond recognition

This is just unconscionable for a polling firm.

I mean, who did they think they were, a Daily Kos diarist?

OT: Don’t download the torrent claiming to be the JournaList archive. It’s gay porn.

year_of_the_dingo on June 29, 2010 at 3:23 PM

Just because it’s gay porn doesn’t mean it’s not the JournoList archive.

malclave on June 29, 2010 at 4:45 PM

Looks like collusion of some sort to me. Why would Moulitsas spend the money commissioning a special poll if he wasn’t confident that the results would be what he needed?

If the poll didn’t say what he wanted it to say, he could have just ignored it.

YYZ on June 29, 2010 at 4:52 PM

I cross-posted this over at Ace’s place (yes, I’m a moronette, too): Polipoint Press, Kos’s publisher for his new book, is the same outfit Kos himself called a “den of thieves” and “scum” back in 2006.

“PoliPoint Press scored big in its second book, wooing established author Joe Conason to join its ranks. It seemed that the publishing house was headed toward respectability and great things. But alas, it was not to be.

“But Polipoint Press, however altruistic its founding may have been, fact is, it is now run by a den of thieves.”

Later in the same post he calls Polipoint Press “scum”. What a hypocrite this guy is, to pick them for his publisher now!

Mary in LA on June 29, 2010 at 4:54 PM

Could Ed be Allah? The conspiracy goes on.

Egad, I hope not – I’ve stopped reading any posts by AP; I’d hate to stop reading HA altogether!

psrch on June 29, 2010 at 5:04 PM

Again, I’m disinclined to take cheap shots,

Why? Kos’ prime directive is to spread a lie and a false ideology. He had to falsify the polls, because any true polling would show he is full of $hit. He peddles lies every day. Why is this even news?

tommylotto on June 29, 2010 at 5:07 PM

Of course– when the LEFT gets caught, it’s a “CHEAP SHOT” by the “Right.”

leftnomore on June 29, 2010 at 5:11 PM

How can he prove them wrong?

seven on June 29, 2010 at 5:12 PM

I’m beginning to wonder if any blogger on HA (besides Doc Zero) has any grit in his soul at all.

leftnomore on June 29, 2010 at 5:12 PM

If the poll didn’t say what he wanted it to say, he could have just ignored it.

YYZ on June 29, 2010 at 4:52 PM

No, because as he explains, he commissioned it specifically because he realized after writing the book that he didn’t have any hard data to back up his claims. He really needed that poll to say what it did – his entire book relies on it.

He claims now of course that he used other data to corroborate the R2000 push poll, but that’s not what he claimed back then, if you read the post at the link.

Missy on June 29, 2010 at 5:13 PM

“Sure, our friends on the Right will get to take some cheap shots, and they should take advantage of the opportunity.”

Why, thanks, Marky. Happy to oblige.

Check out the last entry on this page.

Dr. Mercury on June 29, 2010 at 5:19 PM

If the poll didn’t say what he wanted it to say, he could have just ignored it.

YYZ on June 29, 2010 at 4:52 PM

Nice try!

Del Dolemonte on June 29, 2010 at 5:23 PM

Wondering…

Is DKos incorporated in any way as a business entity? Does it have employees? Does it provide healthcare benefits?

Maybe, just maybe, Obamacare will solve Kos’s problems simply by making it too expensive to stay in business.

What a shame if that happens. Not.

BobMbx on June 29, 2010 at 5:31 PM

Just because it’s gay porn doesn’t mean it’s not the JournoList archive.

malclave on June 29, 2010 at 4:45 PM

Malclave soon to be nominated as “Worst Person in the World.” by Olbermiesterburger

BobMbx on June 29, 2010 at 5:34 PM

What’s that annoying little gnome on about now? Some pollster lied to him?

Idiot.

mojo on June 29, 2010 at 5:40 PM

More on this from WaPo…whose political blog also used the same firm!

Kos’s lawyer, Adam Bonin, tells me:

1) The lawsuit will be for breach of contract, fraud, and negligent misrepresentation, and will be filed in the Northern District of California, where Markos is based.

2) This goes beyond the trio of experts that Markos cited today. Bonin says that they took their findings to “other experts in statistics and polling,” and that they agreed with the analysis finding the polling to be highly questionable. This underscores the seriousness of the charge.

3) The president of Research 2000 promised Markos in an email that the firm would divulge all of its data supporting the polling conclusions sold to DailyKos, but never followed through, Bonin says. He adds that a June 14th email from Research 2000 president Del Ali to Markos says: “As far as I’m concerned you can have all the raw data.”

UPDATE, 3:37 p.m.: The attorney for Research 2000 tells Justin Elliott that the firm may counter-sue.

The comments at the WaPo blog are pretty funny, too:

And they were still more accurate than Rasmussen….

I’ve never put much stock in Research 2000, but when a poll last year said that Obama had a 5% disapproval in the Northeastern US, that clinched it. I can’t believe Kos stuck with them as long as they did. Shouldn’t they have realized it then?

And this one raises an interesting possibility:

Most likely, the DailyKOS posting fraudulent polling data was about to be exposed, so Moulitsas had to get in front of the story so he feigns offended and mounts a lawsuit.

It’ll become a pi$$ing match, a fradulent pollster vs a fraudlent website. It’ll be worth watching for the entertainment factor.

Del Dolemonte on June 29, 2010 at 5:48 PM

Me think Bathtub boy got some ‘splainin’ to do! to do!

Jan 20, 2010 … Olbermann Quotes Research 2000 Poll Proving Democrats Not Doing Enough.

Olbermann: OReilly Attacks … trackback from post: Yesterday, Karl Rove & Bill O’Reilly were apoplectic over a new DKos/Research 2000 poll that shows just …

Feb 4, 2010 … Olbermann: OReilly Attacks DKos Poll Showing GOP Insanity … a new DKos/Research 2000 poll that shows just how insane the GOP — as a party

Aug 17, 2009 … An interesting poll from Daily Kos/Research 2000 asks Americans which of … If you get your “news” from Sean Hannity or Keith Olbermann, …

New poll shows US right falling off deep end | Liberal Conspiracy
Feb 2, 2010 … A new poll by the US polling company Research 2000 illustrates how the …. Olbermann who said that Scott Brown was a racist or the …

A new poll by the US polling company Research 2000 illustrates how the mainstream of the Republican party base is falling off the deep end.

Conducted among 2,000 self-identified Republican respondents nationwide,

Polling shows that:
39% of Republicans want President Obama to be impeached.
• 63% think Obama is a socialist.
Only 42% believe Obama was born in the United States.
21% think ACORN stole the 2008 election — that is, that Obama didn’t actually win it, and isn’t legitimately the president, with 55% saying they are “not sure.” This number is actually significantly lower than it was in a similar question from Public Policy Polling (D) back in November, which said that 52% of Republicans thought ACORN stole it. So does this mean Obama is gaining ground among Republicans? As it is, only just over 20% of Republicans will say that Obama actually won the election.
• 53% think Sarah Palin is more qualified than Obama to be president.
23% want to secede from the United States.
73% think gay people should not be allowed to teach in public schools. This position puts the GOP base well to the right of none other than Ronald Reagan, who helped defeat the Briggs Initiative, a 1978 referendum in California that would have forbidden gays or people who advocated gay rights from teaching in public schools.
31% want contraception to be outlawed.
Posted on Talking Points Memo. The poll was commissioned by the liberal blog Daily Kos

DSchoen on June 29, 2010 at 5:54 PM

Most likely, the DailyKOS posting fraudulent polling data was about to be exposed, so Moulitsas had to get in front of the story so he feigns offended and mounts a lawsuit.

Dollars to donuts this is it. Moulitsas would never have revealed something that embarrassing unless his hand was forced.

It’s leak city all over the lefty media these days.

Missy on June 29, 2010 at 6:00 PM

Del,

The comments at the WaPo blog are pretty funny, too:
And they were still more accurate than Rasmussen….

Was that from Captain Queeg?

Spiny Norman on June 29, 2010 at 6:10 PM

Dollars to donuts this is it. Moulitsas would never have revealed something that embarrassing unless his hand was forced.

It’s leak city all over the lefty media these days.

Missy on June 29, 2010 at 6:00 PM

Another possibility is that an editor at his publisher may have questioned the veracity of some of Markos’ wild-ass “American Tailban” nonsense, and checked up on it.

Spiny Norman on June 29, 2010 at 6:13 PM

If markos wins this over mathematical modeling, we are going to crush the AGWers in court.

jukin on June 29, 2010 at 6:14 PM

Del,

The comments at the WaPo blog are pretty funny, too:

And they were still more accurate than Rasmussen….

Was that from Captain Queeg?

Spiny Norman on June 29, 2010 at 6:10 PM

Don’t recall the name, but will see if I can find the link again.

Del Dolemonte on June 29, 2010 at 6:16 PM

OK, just checked the WaPo link (which is below) and that idiotic post was not by Captain Queeg, but from “BGinCHI”. Obviously a high school dropout who voted for O’bama.

Another intellectually challenged comment:

Research 2000 has provided polling to, among others, Wall Street Journal, THe Nevada Gaming Commission and the conservative Portland Tribune. He is a regular commentator on Fox-TV and has a radio show on right wing talk radio-dominated KPAM in Portland, OR.

When conservatives fail to research and spout off it’s called normal (or Fox News).

Del Dolemonte on June 29, 2010 at 6:29 PM

And they all said,mmmmm mmmmm mmmmm
I guess the “fix” was not in.

IowaWoman on June 29, 2010 at 6:33 PM

Damn!! There goes this slimy little lisping turd’s chance to sell 1500 copies of his book.

Heart Ache!!!

BigWyo on June 29, 2010 at 6:37 PM

OK, just checked the WaPo link (which is below) and that idiotic post was not by Captain Queeg, but from “BGinCHI”.

Well, I wasn’t expecting it would actually say “Captain Queeg” as the commenter, as I was (sarcastically) referring to a formerly pro-conservative blogger who’s recently lost his freaking mind.

Spiny Norman on June 29, 2010 at 6:39 PM

Another possibility is that an editor at his publisher may have questioned the veracity of some of Markos’ wild-ass “American Tailban” nonsense, and checked up on it.

Spiny Norman on June 29, 2010 at 6:13 PM

HEH! Wouldn’t that be something.

‘Hey champ, yer data is for $hit. You might wanna check on that.’

KOs: Whaaarrrgaaarble!!

BigWyo on June 29, 2010 at 6:39 PM

Damn!! There goes this slimy little lisping turd’s chance to sell 1500 copies of his book.

Heart Ache!!!

BigWyo on June 29, 2010 at 6:37 PM

I’m sure the kossacks will still buy it, even if its conclusions have already been proven wildly inaccurate.

Spiny Norman on June 29, 2010 at 6:40 PM

I think what the Research 2000 guys in their “Kinko’s office” are really guilty of, is telling their client exactly what he wanted to hear.

Spiny Norman on June 29, 2010 at 6:44 PM

Couldn’t happen to a nicer guy. Smug little pr*ck.

DrSteve on June 29, 2010 at 7:25 PM

Well, I wasn’t expecting it would actually say “Captain Queeg” as the commenter, as I was (sarcastically) referring to a formerly pro-conservative blogger who’s recently lost his freaking mind.

Spiny Norman

We would have recognized who you meant had you called him Captain Queef.

Hard Right on June 29, 2010 at 7:37 PM

Does the Daily Kos even matter?

I’ve never been on it… Not interested…

Khun Joe on June 29, 2010 at 7:39 PM

So, does this mean the Left is abandoning its long-held position that everyone is entitled to his own facts?

PersonFromPorlock on June 29, 2010 at 7:52 PM

Does the Daily Kos even matter?

I’ve never been on it… Not interested…

Khun Joe on June 29, 2010 at 7:39 PM

Considering the fact that several *sitting* politicians and current media members are active on the site, even to the extent that they maintain active blogs, then yes, it’s relevant. It acts as a meeting point for left-wing activists and their favorite politicians to agree on narratives and spins.

LastRick on June 29, 2010 at 7:53 PM

If it hasn’t been said, this reminds me of another outfit:

I asked for and they offered to provide us with their raw data for independent analysis — which could potentially exculpate them. That was two weeks ago, and despite repeated promises to provide us that data, Research 2000 ultimately refused to do so. At one point, they claimed they couldn’t deliver them because their computers were down and they had to work out of a Kinkos office.

Now Markos has every right to be upset if in fact, the polling firm – the scientists – have been playing loose with the facts. You think he will notice the similarity to requests made by Steve McIntyre et al for data sets and computer modeling methodology used by East Anglia and Penn State?

I suspect faulty data leading to bogus conclusions only is newsworthy if it hurts your cause.

bains on June 29, 2010 at 8:02 PM

I’d long suspected that ‘sponsoring a poll’ was a lot like ordering a new car; pick the make, model, options & colors .. sit back & wait for delivery.

Hey .. bet R2000 had a contract for AGW work, too!

/.

CaveatEmpty on June 29, 2010 at 8:28 PM

Markos: dkos is suing one Markos Moulitsas for polluting the internet with painful and gratuitous stupidity.

fronclynne on June 29, 2010 at 8:49 PM

Marcus Chaoticus whining about his own kind? So?

Feedie on June 29, 2010 at 9:20 PM

Does the Daily Kos even matter?

I’ve never been on it… Not interested…

Khun Joe on June 29, 2010 at 7:39 PM

Nice try.

You need to do some research-Kos himself was regularly a guest on the Sunday morning snooze shows, and even now the site gets 20 million hits a month.

Many prominent Democrats currently in government blog there-Babs Boxer, John Conyers, Dick Turban, Russ Feingold, Christine Gregoire, Tom Harkin, Jane Harman, Jeanne-Claude Kerri, Baghdad Jim McDermott, Jim Moran, nancy Pelosi, Chuckie Schumer, and Henry Waxman are only a few examples.

And as I noted in a previous post on this thread, a widely read “objective” polling website, PollingReport.com, carried the Kos Poll as it came out, but refused to carry Rasmussen.

Del Dolemonte on June 29, 2010 at 9:25 PM

If anyone wants to bother, here is the post from the Daily Kos attacking Rassmussen:

During this year, the nightly polling and political wrap-up has always been rife with comments from Kossacks skeptical of any polling done by Rasmussen Reports.

Over the years, RR has been one of the most prolific pollsters in the game, and despite the fact that it is an open secret that founder Scott Rasmussen’s political proclivities are well to the right of center, their numbers on campaigns have been on the fairway more often than not.

This year, however, it is hard not to go to their webpage and sense an agenda. Apparently, other people in the blogosphere have noticed it, too. :

rob verdi on June 29, 2010 at 9:42 PM

Lost: 800% believe Turkey is an east leaning ally.

Rea1ityCheck on June 29, 2010 at 9:44 PM

It’s too hard to take this hate-filled idiot seriously; especially since he looks so much like Alan from “Two and a half men”.
Maybe he really got conned, but then who cares? He delights in the misery of anyone who disagrees with him. I don’t want anyone to get ripped off; but I can’t muster any real sympathy for him.

mad scientist on June 29, 2010 at 10:01 PM

Meh.

PR kabuki.

hillbillyjim on June 29, 2010 at 10:34 PM

rob verdi on June 29, 2010 at 9:42 PM

“Pollster” John Zogby once admitted that he did polls on certain days of the week to tilt the response to the “D” side, and even went in the tank a few years ago for a Dem candidate in NY State.

Del Dolemonte on June 29, 2010 at 10:41 PM

they couldn’t deliver them because their computers were down and they had to work out of a Kinkos office.

enough said right there

Again, I’m disinclined to take cheap shots

why not, Markos is a sleazy hack who knew these polls were BS and now that he’seen found out, pretending to offer a sincere “we was robbed” and you’re buying it?

sorry Ed, you should know better…….

windansea on June 29, 2010 at 10:44 PM

I don’t get it…you mean Kos finally cares about accuracy and facts and truth???

jediwebdude on June 29, 2010 at 11:55 PM

Markos is a sleazy hack who knew these polls were BS and now that he’seen found out, pretending to offer a sincere “we was robbed” and you’re buying it?

windansea on June 29, 2010 at 10:44 PM

The discovery process of all of Kos’s emails would provide entertainment for all of us for months to come, but someone will smack some sense into him and he will drop the suit and hope no one notices.

pedestrian on June 30, 2010 at 12:04 AM

Give Markos Moulitsas some credit for full disclosure, at least. It would have been very easy for dKos to quietly drop Research 2000 as their pollster and put their resources into a more worthy vendor without ever explaining why. That would have certainly cost them less than hiring attorneys to sue the pollster.

First of all, it costs absolutely nothing out of pocket to hire a civil attorney to sue someone, anyone, or an entity. They take the case for free, if there is a case to be had, and they are compensated a portion of the court award, if there is a monetary award, if the attorney prevails for their client(s). Sometimes there is a monetary award, sometimes the court may order the respondent to pay the plaintiffs legal fees when there is no cash award for the plaintiff.

I thought that was common knowledge. I believe that it is.

Secondly, DKos and Markos Moulitsas Zúñiga can fall in a flaming pool of gasoline and burn until nothing is left but an oily ooze.

The only reason he came clean publicly and is making a big deal of this by trumpeting his intent to sue is because he knew it would break in conservative circles eventually and he’s looking for brownie points on both sides. he avoids a scandal and potentially makes new buddies out of conservative bloggers. It’s win-win. That reprobate would never ever do anything, ever, because it’s the right thing to do unless it solely serves his purpose and the agenda of his ilk otherwise. He’s scum. Period.

So, why the love for that putrid boot licker?

Dhurka Dhurka on June 30, 2010 at 12:58 AM

Kos has a new book coming out very soon. It may already be at the printer. A major theme is supposed to be what fringe nuts conservatives are, and the Research 2000 polls to prove it.
`
Will they hold the press run, like in Stalin’s day, and reset the book to omit the name of the “major independent polling company” upon whose integrity and results the whole theme of the book relies?
`
The “statistics wizards” who did the “report” for Kos aren’t statisticians or even mathematicians. One is a wildlife researcher . . . and the polling company is now threatening a countersuit, saying Kos hasn’t paid the last $50-70K he owes them.
`
Who knows? It’s possible Kos commissioned polls to be skewed or falsified to give the answers he wanted, then decided it was too easily detected and blew the whistle to divert suspicion from himself. Or that his “experts” are just full of it and the poll was legit.

Adjoran on June 30, 2010 at 1:28 AM

Stupid Kossacks.
They spend all their time – along with the other morons of DU, HuffPo, CommonDreams, et al – running around stuffing every poll box they can, then bleat about inaccurate poll results.
Damned MORONS.

rayra on June 30, 2010 at 1:43 AM

“Pollster” John Zogby once admitted that he did polls on certain days of the week to tilt the response to the “D” side, and even went in the tank a few years ago for a Dem candidate in NY State.

Del Dolemonte on June 29, 2010 at 10:41 PM

We call those days ‘the work week’. M-F from 9-5.

Mr Purple on June 30, 2010 at 1:48 AM

And I’ve had enough of Ed Morrissey’s progressive-outreach mien. It presents nothing of interest to me. And worse it props up individuals’ reputations who should be destroyed, not countenanced.

rayra on June 30, 2010 at 1:49 AM

The daily kos guy is a huge bummer.

Metro on June 30, 2010 at 1:53 AM

I can definitely see the M-F ‘pairing’ Kos refers to that suggest this data is BS, but without seeing the actual methods used it is difficult to declare the polls bogus. The 3 ‘statistical wizards’ he mentions aren’t 3 statisticians, either.

The data Kos is using to demonstrate alleged fudging is cherry picked. You would need to look at the entire set of polling data and the methods used to generate these numbers before making any definitive statement.

Take any candidate’s favorability rating. If 10% are undecided, then the M+F total = 90%.

To reach 90% you are automatically going to need to add 2 even numbers or 2 odd numbers together to reach 90%. 41+ 49. 44 + 46. There is a possible explanation for the ‘pairing’ of odd and even M-F numbers.

It should be an interesting battle regardless- but Kos may have wanted to have some actual statisticians look at this before he went all ape$#!t and filed a lawsuit. I sure wouldn’t want to go into a lawsuit with my statistical analysis done by a political consultant, a retired physicist, and a wildlife research technician (his 3 ‘statistical wizards’).

Mr Purple on June 30, 2010 at 2:04 AM

Nate Silver posted something today showing he was sniffing around this in February. Now Nate is a bright guy, but if he was suspicious over 4 months ago, I have to think some people were talking to Kos around February, if not earlier. Now maybe you don’t go filing lawsuits right away, but I don’t think you use them for 4 months afterwards either. You don’t use them as support for your pet theory that all conservatives are nut jobs for your upcoming book.

I think both parties knew the game for a while. I think there will be some interesting emails leaked at some point in this too. They’ll both take some hits from this one. Rats, ships, etc.

stldave on June 30, 2010 at 2:36 AM

Oh my gosh! You mean liberals lie to make people believe and do things that promote liberal causes? Who knew?

Fraud is leftist modus operandi. IN fact I’m sure there is a good amount of fraud in the statements put out by Kos. Fraud is as fraud does. I’m sure Research 2000 was only following the instructions they were given in the first place.

petunia on June 30, 2010 at 2:55 AM

Are you going to retract this?

TPM, I’m looking in your direction as well.

And you, Mr. Klein.

Slublog on June 29, 2010 at 2:51 PM

Is there something in those articles you believe needs to be retracted?

I’d say the stats you link to sound pretty accurate. Of course, there are some of our fellow conservatives who are so spineless that they feel the need to hide what they truly believe to avoid being labeled a radical.

Gregor on June 30, 2010 at 3:49 AM

Why bother? Markos would be better advised to cut his losses.

Because KOS is lying his ass off. He’s forced to file suit to cover his own fraud. Watching KOS whine about altering facts or slanting information is laughable. His entire career is based on fraud.

Gregor on June 30, 2010 at 3:56 AM

Obligatory:

/screw them

UncleOlaf on June 30, 2010 at 6:13 AM

Andrew Breitbart needs to send in a “pimp” and “hooker” in to get some of Markos BS on video. Only this time since you want the truth about the little Commie, it’ll have to be two guys.

adamsmith on June 30, 2010 at 7:37 AM

What will be worse for Kos:

Research2000 polls being proven a complete fraud?

Research2000 polls being proven to be ‘real’? (although possibly not using the best sampling techniques)

I think Kos has stepped in it. Either way, he is screwed – and in court I think he is going to need a lot more than what he has presented so far.

Any individual result has a very small statistical chance of occuring – even expected results. Flip a coin 100 times. The chances of you getting an exact 50/50 split aren’t as great as you might think. The number of possible outcomes is great, any particular result has a small chance of being occurring.

Some of Gregor Mendel’s work (a pioneer in genetics who was a monk/scientist) is criticized for being ‘too good to be true’ (the likelihood of generating some of Mendel’s results are very small). He is accused of ‘fudging’ his work as well – but fudged or not he was largely right (he DID prove the gene was the unit of inheritance). Proving beyond reasonable doubt he fudged it is extremely difficult.

Kos needs to prove his case – and, like Ned Lamont, I think he will fall short.

Liberals just have a way of shooting themselves in the foot. I have faith that Kos has done just this.

Mr Purple on June 30, 2010 at 7:47 AM

The Daily Kos have themselves to blame — Research 2000 was telling those leftists what they wanted to hear. For example R2000 was one of the very few (the only?) polls that had Scott Brown losing late.

WannabeAnglican on June 30, 2010 at 8:26 AM

Markos Moulitsas is a scum bucket.

Rush Limbaugh said it was a junk poll in February.
If the jerk listed to Rush, he could have saved some money.

He got what he paid for, KOS was stupid again.

seven on June 30, 2010 at 1:19 PM

This is like the climate warming sky is falling. Algore got caught with his pants down as have his power point presentations. The presentations came from models and not reality.

seven on June 30, 2010 at 1:21 PM

A mea culpa from Allahpundit, but a “fake, but accurate” from CJ… the Rupublicans are still all “Birther” conspiracy theorists (and they still stole my strawberries!), yet curiously, a complete avoidance of the “right-wing Christians are just as bad as the Taliban” issue, which was the point of the poll that Markos has written an entire book about.

Is anyone surprised?

Spiny Norman on June 30, 2010 at 1:40 PM

If ever anyone had a <em>Backpfeifengesicht (a face that badly needs to be slapped), it is surely Kos.

Mary in LA on June 30, 2010 at 3:54 PM

Oddly enough, I’ll wait to hear what the research company has to say before judging this one.

They could be the ones being set up by KOS.

AnninCA on June 30, 2010 at 4:06 PM

Spiny Norman on June 30, 2010 at 1:40 PM

There are a LOT of ‘birthers’ out there.

I find people who are NOT ‘Birthers’ to be sorely lacking in the facts , highly reliant on what some HI official claims, and extremely dismissive about what the Constitution desires.

When debating folks on the issue non-birthers are routinely unaware of the difference between HI birth documents and the methods that can be used to obtain them. They almost without fail will fall back into ‘Oh – well this person said it was OK so it’s settled for me’. When you start to dominate them with facts and knowledge they usually slip into ‘does it really matter?’ mode.

The media WILLFULLY misrepresents the issue. News outlets that KNOW BETTER claim ‘he has released his original BC’. NOT TRUE! (if it is true then it means Obama’s ‘original BC’ was created around 2006) They also routinely blur the line between ‘natural born citizen’ and ‘citizen’.

Mr Purple on June 30, 2010 at 6:32 PM

Well then, Mr Purple, I guess that even though I know for a fact that I was born in Lakewood, California in 1961, I cannot prove that I’m a “natural born citizen” by your standards because I do not have my “actual” birth certificate, but a “certificate of live birth”, the same document as what we’ve seen of the President.

Try to get a copy of your birth certificate, Mr. Purple, and then come back and tell us what they gave you.

Seriously dude, they can stamp their feet all they want, but “Birthers” are as nuts as as “9/11 Troofers”.

Spiny Norman on July 1, 2010 at 12:16 AM

Spiny Norman on July 1, 2010 at 12:16 AM

Wll Spiny, I am not familiar with all the various birth documents avalaible in CA – but you say you have a CERTIFICATE of live birth – as do I.

That is not what the Obama has released. He has released a CERTIFICATION of Live Birth. That is what is known as the ‘short form’ BC.

Birthers would be thrilled to see a CERTIFICATE of Live Birth from HI. The Nordyke Twins who were born at the same time have this document – and it has much more info on it than the CERTIFICATION of Live Birth that Obama has released.

As I said earlier (and you have just demonstrated) ‘Birthers’ tend to be more versed on the differences between the birth certificates – and people who just believe what they have been told seem a little short on information.

Thank You for making my point.

Mr Purple on July 1, 2010 at 3:55 AM

Spiny Norman on June 30, 2010 at 1:40 PM

According to this recent 60 Minutes/Vanity Fair poll only 39% believe Obama was born in Hawaii.

http://www.vanityfair.com/magazine/2010/08/60-minutes-poll-201008?currentPage=8

NOTE: This poll was conducted at the CBS News interviewing facility among a random sample of 960 adults nationwide, interviewed by telephone June 1-3, 2010.

Mr Purple on July 1, 2010 at 4:08 AM

Spiny Norman on July 1, 2010 at 12:16 AM

I have not taken the time to become familiar with California’s birth documents, but you say you have a CERTIFICATE of live birth.

Obama has posted a CERTIFICATION of live birth.

NOT the same document – but thanks for proving my point.

Birthers tend to be better informed about the HI birth documents, the differences between them, and what the particular documents prove or do not prove. The CERTIFICATION does not prove a Hawaiian birth.

A child born outside the US who had their birth registered in Hawaii at a later point in time would get a document that loks exactly like the CERTIFICATION Obama has posted on the internet.

Sun Yat Sen has a Hawaiian birth document that says he was born in Hawaii. Do you believe Sun Yat Sen was born in Hawaii? He was born in China. Hawaiian law has loopholes that existed in 1961 that would allow a foreign born child to have their birth registered in Hawaii.

Mr Purple on July 1, 2010 at 4:15 AM

Spiny Norman on July 1, 2010 at 12:16 AM

There is also the point about the Obama COLB saying ‘Filed by Registrar’ as opposed to ‘Accepted by State Registrar’.

A local registrar will file a birth document (often for a name change or something), and the document is then reviewed and later accepted or rejected by the State Registrar.

Obama’s COLB does not state it was ‘Accepted by State Registrar’. It appears a change was simply applied for – but whether it was accepted or not I do not know.

My personal theory is that his BC probably said ‘BHO Jr’ on it before 2006. That is what he was referred to prior to running for POTUS. Perhaps he thought ‘Jr’ was a little diminshing to his stature and he preferrred BHO II’. That is speculation on my part and I don’t believe it is a widely held notion among birthers.

He was certainly referred to as ‘BHO Jr’ for many years before he ran for POTUS. His Wikipedia entry used to say ‘Jr’ as well. That isn’t particularly important – I am just pointing out a fact and speculating on the origin of the COLB.

Here is the date of one of these changes on Wikipedia:

18:08, 7 November 2008 Moflint (talk | contribs)(135,510 bytes)(Changed “Barack Hussein Obama II” to “Barack Hussein Obama, Jr.”. It is verified in other sources that he is a Jr., and not a “II”. You can even find this on Wikianswers.)

Mr Purple on July 1, 2010 at 4:47 AM

Here is another Wikipedia edit. Notice it say Google searches do not show any valid ‘BHOII’ links.

He was referred to as BHO Jr prior to his election.

11:38, 6 November 2008 Timneu22 (talk | contribs)(134,655 bytes)(removing “II” from his name until a valid source can be found. talk page does answer the “II” debate, and google searches do not show any valid “barack hussein obama ii” links)

Mr Purple on July 1, 2010 at 4:51 AM

I will finish with this for tonight (movie time):

I do not know where he was born. The CERTIFICATION he has posted online does not PROVE a Hawaiian birth.

There were numerous refernces to Obama being Kenyan-born on the internet. Most of them have been scrubbed since his election.

I am concerned he was never asked to release his college transcripts. Kerry was. Bush was. Gore was. Nearly every candidate in recent history has relleased those documents because the PRESS forced them to do so.

Not in 2008. McCain’s grades were a matter of public record since he attended West Point. We all know the media was in the tank for Obama – and asking him to release these documents would have surely generated cries of ‘RAAAACIST’ from the left.

He has since refused to release any of these documents – and he has spent over $2 million dollars preventing the release of a document that would supposedly only prove his Hawaiian birth.

I have questions that are not answered. That makes me a ‘birther’ – and a racist to some.

Mr Purple on July 1, 2010 at 4:58 AM

I have not taken the time to become familiar with California’s birth documents, but you say you have a CERTIFICATE of live birth.

Obama has posted a CERTIFICATION of live birth.

NOT the same document – but thanks for proving my point.

No, I have not proved your point at all. However, after reviewing the official document from the State of California, it reads “Certification of Live Birth”. It IS the same as the Hawaiian document that was released.

My certification “proved” my citizenship well enough to get an official US passport. You Birthers are grasping at straws. Sorry, but you’re simply deluded, and giving way too much ammunition to left-wing demagogues like Markos Moulitsas and Charles Johnson.

Spiny Norman on July 1, 2010 at 10:58 AM

Spiny Norman on July 1, 2010 at 10:58 AM

1) You DID prove my point, and you have done so again by admitting you were confused about which document you yourself had.

2) California did not have the same laws in effect that Hawaii did regarding filing for a BC. A child born outside the US could not later obtain a CA BC. In Hawaii, they could.
Further, a quick Google search of ‘CERTIFICATION of Live Birth’ yields no result that shows or describes a ‘CERTIFICATION’ of Live Birth. All results relevant to California appear to refer to CERTIFICATE of Live Birth (at least on the first few pages of results – I didn’t check EVERY page of results). Clicking on the ‘Images’ link at Google I also do not see any image of a CERTIFICATION of Live Birth from California.

There is even a template of a CERTIFICATE of Live Birth for California available when you Google ‘CERTIFICATION of Live Birth’.

http://www.avss.ucsb.edu/layouts/vs10d.htm

The California Department of Public Health’s website shows Certified copies of Birth Certificates and Informational copies of Birth Certificates available.

At this point I would need to see an actual CERTIFICATION of Live Birth issued from California to even believe you have a document like that. No – I don’t ‘just believe’ you. Delete out your personal info and post a photo of it on Flickr or something and I would start to believe you – until then you sound like the talking heads who willfully mislead the public.

Mr Purple on July 2, 2010 at 12:14 AM

Just to clarify, The Google terms I used were ‘California Certification of Live Birth’. Not simply ‘Certification of Live Birth’.

Mr Purple on July 3, 2010 at 5:22 AM

Comment pages: 1 2