Survey USA poll puts Burr up 10 in NC Senate race

posted at 9:40 am on June 26, 2010 by Ed Morrissey

Republicans wanted Elaine Marshall as the Democratic opponent to Sen. Richard Burr (R-NC), believing her to be far Left enough to do what no North Carolina Senator in this particular seat has done in over 40 years — win re-election.  An initial Survey USA poll shows that the GOP may have had it right.  Burr leads Marshall by ten points among likely voters:

In an election for United States Senator from North Carolina today, 06/25/10, incumbent Republican Richard Burr holds his seat for the GOP, narrowly edging Democratic challenger Elaine Marshall 50% to 40%. Republicans are aligned behind Burr more solidly than Democrats are aligned behind Marshall. Independents break for Burr. Burr carries greater Charlotte and Greensboro. Marshall and Burr are effectively even in greater Raleigh and Southern NC.

The 50% threshold is important, especially in a three-way race.  Libertarian Mike Beitler draws only 6% now, and as Election Day approaches, some of those will probably move to the other two candidates.  Beitler gets most of his support from men (8% of men, versus 3% of women), which Burr wins overall by 21 points (55/34) and only gets edged among women by 3 (44/47), so presumably Burr will gain most of whatever Beitler loses.

Interestingly, Burr wins every age demographic and performs more strongly among younger voters from 18-34 years of age, almost doubling up Marshall, 57/29.  He also beats Marshall among independents, 46/35, with Beitler getting 12%.  Not surprisingly, he wins the pro-life vote 70/21, but  also has some support  in the pro-choice demo, 31/59.

Burr has other winds at his back.  In the larger sample of adults, 63% of respondents named the economy as their top issue for the midterms.  Health care came in second at only 9%, a rather emphatic rejection of the project that took almost the entirety of Democratic attention in the 111th Congress.  Only 29% of North Carolina’s adults believe that the economy will be better a year from now, with 30% saying it will be weaker and 36% predicting no change.  Sixty-one percent disapprove of the federal response to the Gulf spill, which won’t help Democrats get Elaine Marshall elected, either.  And despite the spill, 49% want offshore drilling for North Carolina.

Burr may have a tough fight, but he looks positioned to beat history and become the first Senator from his state to win a second term since Jesse Helms, and a re-election in this seat since Sam Ervin.


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Every seat counts.

Mr. Joe on June 26, 2010 at 9:43 AM

Please don’t accuse of her worshiping Satan.

Cindy Munford on June 26, 2010 at 9:45 AM

The buzz is how much they’d like to have a female governor and two female senators. Gimmicks.

If you could see some of the trash Marshall is putting out. She is a vile creature. But she has the local NC media who are supporting her with their fake news stories that are anti-Burr about 90% of the time.

hawkdriver on June 26, 2010 at 9:48 AM

Rasmussen released an NC Senate poll this week also. It had Burr up by only one point, 44-43.

Mark1971 on June 26, 2010 at 9:50 AM

Burr wins easily.

artist on June 26, 2010 at 9:51 AM

Sixty-one percent disapprove of the federal response to the Gulf spill, which won’t help Democrats get Elaine Marshall elected, either. And despite the spill, 49% want offshore drilling for North Carolina.

This is what I was talking about with the news. Local broadcasts made big hay out of comments he’s made supporting OSDrilling. They were almost immediately followed up by Marshalls ads tying him to oil and the disaster.

hawkdriver on June 26, 2010 at 9:51 AM

Libertarian Mike Beitler draws only 6% now, and as Election Day approaches, some of those will probably move to the other two candidates.

Not all of it though. I used to live there and the libertarian candidate usually gets a couple of percent. For example, Mike Munger (Libertarian) was essentially the percentage that got Purdue elected over McCrory in 2008.

LastRick on June 26, 2010 at 9:55 AM

When is a 10 point gap “narrow?” I’m not reading that wrong am I?

lizzie beth on June 26, 2010 at 10:00 AM

Rasmussen has him only up 1 point. PPP polling firm says she’s the stronger candidate. Burr wins by at least 6.

SouthernGent on June 26, 2010 at 10:03 AM

Elaine Marshall was on a local talk radio show last weekend in Raleigh talking about how Obamacare was going to save so much money and cover so many people and just be supercool. The interviewer didn’t both to bring up any of the recent reports about it sucking ass fiscally or doctors heading for the hills. The woman is delusional- the left will love her but Burr should win easily anyway.

Monica on June 26, 2010 at 10:06 AM

The November elections will be a pivotal point in our nation’s history. Incompetent lemmings like Marshall will rubber stamp what their masters dictate. Two years of Obama’s attack on our country will be difficult to survive, four years may be impossible. The arrogance of the eunuch who would be king is getting more nauseous by the day.

volsense on June 26, 2010 at 10:06 AM

I’m a strong NC Conservative. Burr is not a strong conservative as he voted for cloture on the immigration amnesty bill, voted for mexican trucks to come accross the border, first to endorse Rino McCain in the presidential campaign, voted in Dec with Bush on the first bailouts, and I could go on and on. However, I will vote for him over the crazy liberal Democrat. Don’t hold Burr to high on a pedistal as he will revert back to his old ways after election just like McVain will after his if he wins. Burr is just a moderate.

livermush on June 26, 2010 at 10:10 AM

This truly is a war against the machine; the people vs the government… I can only pray that the majority of citizens in every state recognize this for what it is. Voting for any Democrat at this time in our history is akin to wearing the uniform of the enemy of freedom and the American experiment.

Nevadans, I sure hope you’re on board with freedom fighters. Harry Reid must be defeated, and then investigated.

Keemo on June 26, 2010 at 10:10 AM

Which poll factors in the dead people vote, the multiple voters from absentee ballots, the Grey, (used to be Black Panthers) guarding the polling places, the illegals that will be legal after an executive order, the SEIU, AFLCIO, M’FER SKEEZBAG UNION and the vote counters getting stimulated via stimulus money!

This ain’t over till Nov.31 after all the ballots found in car trunks, backrooms, Sandy Bergers panties and socks, are counted and several liberal Bill Clintoon appointed judges are overruled by the Supreme Court rulings!

Get loud, get proud, get in their ef’n faces and take our country back or this time it will be our children.
Lock and load!

dhunter on June 26, 2010 at 10:17 AM

These are strog numbers considering (registerted)democratic voters here out number Republican voters by over 700,000.

..hopefully we are seeing the people who moved here from the states the democrats destroyed up North being smart enough not to vote the same idiots in here.

Burr has been consistently up but now that the democratic nominee has been defined….he has lost some ground:

SurveyUSA 6/23 – 6/24 617 LV 50 40 Burr +10
Rasmussen Reports 6/23 – 6/23 500 LV 44 43 Burr +1
PPP (D) 6/4 – 6/6 601 LV 46 39 Burr +7
Rasmussen Reports 6/3 – 6/3 500 LV 50 36 Burr +14
PPP (D) 5/8 – 5/10 631 LV 43 42 Burr +1

Rasmussen Reports 5/5 – 5/5 1200 LV 48

40 Burr +8
Rasmussen Reports 4/19 – 4/19 500 LV 50 32 Burr +18
PPP (D) 4/8 – 4/11 742 LV 43 37 Burr +6

Rasmussen Reports 3/22 – 3/22 500 LV 51 35 Burr +16
PPP (D) 3/12 – 3/15 878 LV 41 36 Burr +5

Rasmussen Reports 2/23 – 2/23 500 LV 50 34 Burr +16
Mason-Dixon 2/15 – 2/17 625 RV 54 29 Burr +25
PPP (D) 2/12 – 2/15 788 LV 43 33 Burr +10

Rasmussen Reports 1/27 – 1/27 500 LV 47 37 Burr +10
PPP (D) 12/11 – 12/13 593 LV 42 37 Burr +5
Civitas (R) 12/1 – 12/3 600 LV 40 32 Burr +8

PPP (D) 11/9 – 11/11 711 LV 45 34 Burr +11
Change Congress (D) 10/31 – 11/1 600 LV 42 35 Burr +7

Jobs…Jobs…Jobs…Jobs……is what is going to win elections here in NC.

Baxter Greene on June 26, 2010 at 10:20 AM

Interestingly, Burr wins every age demographic and performs more strongly among younger voters from 18-34 years of age, almost doubling up Marshall, 57/29.

Asking us to foot the bill for a couple of retarded generations will do that!

abobo on June 26, 2010 at 10:31 AM

When is a 10 point gap “narrow?” I’m not reading that wrong am I?

lizzie beth on June 26, 2010 at 10:00 AM

good question. The way I see it, the mean support gap may be 10 points but the margin of error on each mean is +/- 3 pts. So, the closest that the race is 47/43 or a 4 pt spread, and the furthest is 53/37 or a 16 pt spread. The truth lies somewhere between those numbers if I’m interpreting this correctly. I appreciate it when Ed helps bring the confidence intervals of these polls into better clarity so the precision and accuracy of the poll is in better focus.

ted c on June 26, 2010 at 10:33 AM

narrowly edging Democratic challenger Elaine Marshall 50% to 40%

NARROWLY EDGING?

Purple Fury on June 26, 2010 at 10:38 AM

Remember to thank the intrepid citizen reporters James O’Keffe and Hannah Giles for putting an end to ACORN and curbing massive voter fraud this election cycle. That was a major trump card in 08 for the donks.

jukin on June 26, 2010 at 10:48 AM

The North Carolina election will be the proverbial choice of choosing the lesser of two evils. It never stops amazing me that an entire state can only find liars and thieves to lead them. Ariel Durant said, “A great civilization cannot be conquered from without until it destroys itself from within.” She may have meant exploiting the ignorance of the masses will lead to our destruction. Looks like the liberal elites may have found that key because Barry Soetero’s arrongance suggests they have.

volsense on June 26, 2010 at 10:53 AM

Well, ‘RasGopebbels’ put it 44/43 Burr two days ago. It’s not a gimme and 10 points is not a lot here if Dole’s 2008 loss is any indication. It would seem, though, that on the issues voters would be favoring Burr more than 44/43. I’ve no clue why it is not so.

Dusty on June 26, 2010 at 11:05 AM

Language is interesting – over the last 5 years or so, a “major” victory is now 5%. That’s how close we are to the edge. “Landslide” is now 10%.

Reagan won a “landslide” victory, 0bama certainly did NOT.

Who is John Galt on June 26, 2010 at 11:12 AM

I don’t get it, shouldn’t NC be more Republican than this. How can the state elect John Edwards and maybe throw out Burr in a GOP year. Even McCain was ahead by 20 points before the stock market crashed.

TimTebowSavesAmerica on June 26, 2010 at 11:34 AM

Libertarian Mike Beitler draws only 6% now, and as Election Day approaches, some of those will probably move to the other two candidates.

That’s right. Libertarians exist only for polling purposes, not to actually hold office.

Emperor Norton on June 26, 2010 at 11:44 AM

Don’t count a single seat until after the election and work harder than ever before. The very life of this country depends on it.

Schadenfreude on June 26, 2010 at 11:57 AM

I don’t get it, shouldn’t NC be more Republican than this. How can the state elect John Edwards and maybe throw out Burr in a GOP year. Even McCain was ahead by 20 points before the stock market crashed.

TimTebowSavesAmerica on June 26, 2010 at 11:34 AM

Over the last ten years, the young college grads that can’t afford the cost of living in Long Island moved there.

Who is John Galt on June 26, 2010 at 12:28 PM

As a Tarheel, I guarantee victory.

THE CHOSEN ONE on June 26, 2010 at 12:28 PM

livermush on June 26, 2010 at 10:10 AM

Very true… but Marshall is wack lefty who must be defeated at all cost.

I attended the Conservatives of Guilford County (Greensboro) cookout yesterday. Burr’s people were there, but I didn’t see Richard (at least while I was there). Both Howard Coble (NC-6) and Bill Randall (NC-13) were there.

Burr is from the Jim Martin wing of the NCGOP. I remember 1984 working for Helms and Martin. The two camps hated each other. We attended the Helms victory party, but Martin called our room at the hotel to thank us (NC State College Republicans). We attended the Helms party because most of us were on that end of the conservative spectrum.

mankai on June 26, 2010 at 12:30 PM

Or went to school there. It’s amazing the number of NC license plates I see on Long Island these days…

Who is John Galt on June 26, 2010 at 12:30 PM

TimTebowSavesAmerica on June 26, 2010 at 11:34 AM

NC is state that gave Bob Dole an 8-point victory. Bob Dole! But that was 1996. Edwards ran a conservative (I love the death penalty!) campaign and the NCGOP ran a horrible campaign for a damaged candidate (Lauch Faircloth). Believe me, I begged them to change their strategy (I won’t detail it here).

Raleigh and Charlotte have become South Jersey and South Long Island in the last 10 years. The university system (16 universities) has exploded and all those brainwashed lefties on campus are allowed to vote here while in school.

I work at one of them and I saw exactly one McCain sticker in 2008.

Greensboro is still relatively conservative. We just elected a conservative for Mayor in 2009. The hope is that the new inhabitants with assimilate and move to the right over time.

mankai on June 26, 2010 at 12:38 PM

When is a 10 point gap “narrow?” I’m not reading that wrong am I?

lizzie beth on June 26, 2010 at 10:00 AM

I suppose it’s “narrow” when it is amazing there is more than 20% of the voters in NC who would want the Democrats controlling the Senate.

ray on June 26, 2010 at 12:48 PM

Who is John Galt on June 26, 2010 at 12:28 PM

mankai on June 26, 2010 at 12:38 PM

Good luck and keep up the fight. It just seems transplants, myself included, have made FL more conservative. GA has more African-Americans and Atlanta, yet the state is still solidly conservative. NC should be a few points to the right of GA.

TimTebowSavesAmerica on June 26, 2010 at 1:09 PM

We need a new motto, try this one on: “Conserve that which WORKS! Vote Conservative!”

Who is John Galt on June 26, 2010 at 1:28 PM

Why is it that 10 points is a “slim” margin for a Republican but is not for a Democrat?

Why is that that when a Democrat is behind, some pollsters want to portray it as the Democrat is only a little bit behind so if you get out there and vote, you can bring the Democrat to victory? 10 points is a fairly significant margin these days. If the margin were 5 points, sure, that would be “slim”.

crosspatch on June 26, 2010 at 6:18 PM

Why is it that 10 points is a “slim” margin for a Republican but is not for a Democrat?

..snip…

crosspatch on June 26, 2010 at 6:18 PM

Media bias? Say it ain’t so… /sarc

Who is John Galt on June 26, 2010 at 9:24 PM

Amazingly, many of the Tea Party groups in NC aren’t supporting Burr. Idiots.

snopercod on June 27, 2010 at 1:13 PM