Rasmussen: Whitman within a point of Brown in CA

posted at 11:36 am on June 10, 2010 by Ed Morrissey

Yesterday, Jerry Brown said he didn’t worry about Meg Whitman’s big war chest, telling ABC News that his “frugality” would win the day.  With Whitman saying she might spend as much as $150 million of her own money to keep Brown from getting a third term as Governor 27 years after the end of his second term, he’d better hope frugality goes farther than his experience.  A new Rasmussen poll shows that Whitman has pulled into a statistical dead heat with Brown in California among likely voters:

Meg Whitman’s mega-win in Tuesday’s Republican Primary has thrown her into a virtual tie once again with Democrat Jerry Brown in the race to be the next governor of California.

A new Rasmussen Reports telephone survey of Likely Voters in California, taken last night, shows Brown with 45% of the vote, while Whitman earns 44% support. Four percent (4%) prefer some other candidate, and seven percent (7%) are undecided.

Brown led Whitman 45% to 41% late last month but the two have been tied three times in surveys stretching back to September. Brown’s support in the match-ups with Whitman has remained in the narrow range of 41% to 45%. Whitman, in those same surveys, has earned 35% to 43% of the vote.

Those numbers present more of a problem for Brown than for Whitman, who is making her first run at political office. In one sense, Brown is running as an incumbent, having served those two previous terms as Governor and firmly belonging to the political establishment in California.  If he can’t get above 45% in polling against Whitman while she’s a relative unknown, it’s a red flag that he can’t win a head-to-head matchup without a major Whitman gaffe.

The internals thus far are interesting.  The candidates also split the genders, both within the margin of error, with Whitman edging Brown with men and Brown reversing it with women.  Whitman wins majorities of the oldest and youngest voters, but loses by pluralities in between except in a virtual tie with 50-64YOs.  She loses among all income demos except <$20K (47/35) and $60-75K (57/39).  The $40-60K demo has 16% undecided, however, and Whitman only trails by five, 36/41.

Brown needs to win independents, and thus far it’s close, a 45/44 split for Whitman.  He has some challenges on issues, though, which may tilt indies towards Whitman, depending on whether she can take advantage of them.  A 22-point majority of independents, 57/35,  back the use of the military to control the border (Dems split on this 44/44).  A plurality oppose a challenge to Arizona’s immigration-enforcement law, 49/38, while Democrats strongly back one, 54/32.  On the other hand, California independents give Barack Obama a high job approval rating, 61/39, and outgoing Republican Governor Arnold Schwarzenegger a decidedly negative one, 40/59.

Assuming neither candidate makes a game-changing gaffe, this could go down to the wire.


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Comments

Is she campaigning against Ah-nold? I hope so.

itsnotaboutme on June 10, 2010 at 11:39 AM

On the other hand, California independents give Barack Obama a high job approval rating, 61/39, and outgoing Republican Governor Arnold Schwarzenegger a decidedly negative one, 40/59.

Useless data is useless. I can’t believe any group of voters even gave Arnold 40%.

fiatboomer on June 10, 2010 at 11:40 AM

$150 million? Wow, if Meg can afford to spend that much she must have some serious cake sitting in the bank. If I had that kind of stash, I would be sitting on an island somewhere and isolating myself from the trash of politics as much as possible.

Bishop on June 10, 2010 at 11:40 AM

If Jerry Brown is exposed he’s not beating the local dog catcher.

Speakup on June 10, 2010 at 11:41 AM

On the other hand, California independents give Barack Obama a high job approval rating, 61/39, and outgoing Republican Governor Arnold Schwarzenegger a decidedly negative one, 40/59.

I don’t know which number is more depressing. That nearly 2/3 of independents actually think Obama is doing a good job or that 40% of them still approve of Ahnuld who’s been an unmitigated disaster.

Doughboy on June 10, 2010 at 11:42 AM

On the other hand, California independents give Barack Obama a high job approval rating, 61/39,

That goes a long way in explaining why the state of California is circling the toilet bowl.

Johnnyreb on June 10, 2010 at 11:43 AM

Way to early to know. Brown is 70, that might be a factor in things. But then maybe not. How does Byrd keep getting re-elected I’ll never understand.

wi farmgirl on June 10, 2010 at 11:43 AM

God help us.

moonbatkiller on June 10, 2010 at 11:44 AM

Ed, mutiny on your hands in the NC post. We’ve had enough of Nartuboy and your sliding “banning” scale.

jbh45 on June 10, 2010 at 11:44 AM

Bozo the clown could beat Brown.

jbh45 on June 10, 2010 at 11:45 AM

I mean this as constructive criticism; this woman badly needs a makeover.

DaydreamBeliever on June 10, 2010 at 11:45 AM

Apparently, the only problem with “Governor Moonbeam” of the Late 1970s was, he needed to get older and more senile. Now, he’s just perfect.

RBMN on June 10, 2010 at 11:46 AM

Jerry is no doubt hoping that those who remember the photo of him and Linda Ronstadt in her undies are still around.

Even Linda in the 70’s couldn’t make me vote for that chowderhead.

Mr. Grump on June 10, 2010 at 11:47 AM

When you consider name recognition, WOW, just WOW.

tarpon on June 10, 2010 at 11:47 AM

Suggestion for a Whitman campaign ad: “….Just ask anyone who was a wage earner when Brown was Gov.”

kurtzz3 on June 10, 2010 at 11:48 AM

$150 million? Wow, if Meg can afford to spend that much she must have some serious cake sitting in the bank. If I had that kind of stash, I would be sitting on an island somewhere and isolating myself from the trash of politics as much as possible.

Bishop on June 10, 2010 at 11:40 AM

She got enough to sit on her own island , and run for office as pastime. And it’s probably for a good cause too.

the_nile on June 10, 2010 at 11:48 AM

Depends on who the teacher’s union endorses…they own this state!

repvoter on June 10, 2010 at 11:51 AM

Obuma and Arnold are are perfect examples when voters are so shallow as to choose charisma over substance. Both had no executive experience so how could they expect to lead in areas where they are completely naive. Obuma compounded his incompetency by putting those of his ilk in positions of control where it is impossible for them to be sucessful. When you are in control of what you are completely naive about, rock bottom is the next logical step.

volsense on June 10, 2010 at 11:52 AM

150 mil to Meg is nuthin. Nuthin.

rickyricardo on June 10, 2010 at 11:52 AM

This is the first poll after the Republican primary. Of course Whtitman was going to get a bounce.

Let’s see where the dust settles in a few weeks.

YYZ on June 10, 2010 at 11:52 AM

As someone who was there for Jerry Brown’s two terms: he bankrupted the state just like his dad (Pat) did in the 1960’s… One bite at the apple is enough for him!! He has done ENOUGH damage…

Khun Joe on June 10, 2010 at 11:53 AM

What about the illegal alien vote…?

Oh, wait!

Seven Percent Solution on June 10, 2010 at 11:54 AM

Depends on who the teacher’s union endorses…they own this state!

repvoter on June 10, 2010 at 11:51 AM

I’m sure they have ALREADY come out in support of Brown… He’s the Democrat in the race, isn’t he??

Khun Joe on June 10, 2010 at 11:55 AM

it’s a red flag that he can’t win a head-to-head matchup without a major Whitman gaffe.

I can’t believe she is goin’ on Hannity. That’s a tough interview!

tommylotto on June 10, 2010 at 11:56 AM

Apparently, the only problem with “Governor Moonbeam” of the Late 1970s was, he needed to get older and more senile. Now, he’s just perfect.

RBMN on June 10, 2010 at 11:46 AM

How true RBMN. With over half of the state’s electorate probably not born when jerry graced us with his comedy, Whitman should have a gallery of Brown’s prospectus and asinine “leadership”. Just post his own recorded comments Meg.

Rovin on June 10, 2010 at 11:58 AM

Khun Joe on June 10, 2010 at 11:53 AM

she needs to pound him on this….

cmsinaz on June 10, 2010 at 12:04 PM

What I don’t understand, is why she wants the job in the first place.

It’s like fighting to be the captain of the Titanic after it hit the iceberg.

Rebar on June 10, 2010 at 12:04 PM

Jerry Brown once showed up for a date with Linda Ronstadt wearing shoes that didn’t match. She said later: “I could understand socks that don’t match. But, shoes?”

Emperor Norton on June 10, 2010 at 12:05 PM

That goes a long way in explaining why the state of California is circling the toilet bowl.

Johnnyreb on June 10, 2010 at 11:43 AM

The fact that “Fruitfly” Jerry is polling even close, and Ahnold has a ,gulp!, 40% approval confirms the above.

Whitman should run against Ahnold– he started out as a Republican and when that didn’t work he adopted the motto, “If ya can’t beat’em, join’em!” and effectively became a Democrat.

cartooner on June 10, 2010 at 12:10 PM

What I don’t understand, is why she wants the job in the first place.
It’s like fighting to be the captain of the Titanic after it hit the iceberg.
Rebar on June 10, 2010 at 12:04 PM

Heh. Or like Hitler’s cabal of lackeys who actually vied to be leader after he killed himself. What is to gain other than control of a demolished land and a crushed people?

Bishop on June 10, 2010 at 12:10 PM

I would be sitting on an island somewhere and isolating myself from the trash of politics as much as possible.

Bishop on June 10, 2010 at 11:40 AM

The same egomania that produces billionaire CEO’s is often found in those seeking high executive office. Bored Billionaire syndrome’s chief symptom is a taste for power.

ernesto on June 10, 2010 at 12:13 PM

“With Whitman saying she might spend as much as $150 million of her own money to keep Brown from getting a third term as Governor 27 years after..”

On that basis alone, I would vote for Whitman. I believe she will pick up a lot by campaigning “to keep” Moonbeam out of Sacto.

The War Planner on June 10, 2010 at 12:13 PM

this one of those rare races: a new, smart, hip, successful republican vs. the old hack dem (think Obama/McCain, Bush1/Clinton, in reverse). This should be a blowout…should, I say…

joepub on June 10, 2010 at 12:14 PM

I’m not drinking Jerry’s Kool-Aid.

Fighton03 on June 10, 2010 at 12:15 PM

That goes a long way in explaining why the state of California is circling the toilet bowl.

Johnnyreb on June 10, 2010 at 11:43 AM

nah..we’re not circling. This state has turned into the brown ring just under the lip.

Fighton03 on June 10, 2010 at 12:17 PM

The same egomania that produces billionaire CEO’s is often found in those seeking high executive office. Bored Billionaire syndrome’s chief symptom is a taste for power.

ernesto on June 10, 2010 at 12:13 PM

Actually, you have it backwards. I suspect their are more humble CEO’s than politicians.

Fighton03 on June 10, 2010 at 12:19 PM

Jerry Brown must long for the good old days in the 1970’s when he could call his political friend, the Rev. Jim Jones
at the Peoples Temple who could bring out a diverse crowd of hundreds of people for a campaign. Just look the other way at criminal and abuse accusations against Jones until the moment the Kool-aid flowed on Nov. 18, 1978.
I cannot believe the California Democrats are so lame and hopeless that they brought out this fossil again.

RobCon on June 10, 2010 at 12:29 PM

What I don’t understand, is why she wants the job in the first place.

It’s like fighting to be the captain of the Titanic after it hit the iceberg.

Rebar on June 10, 2010 at 12:04 PM

Lol.

the_nile on June 10, 2010 at 12:32 PM

What I don’t understand, is why she wants the job in the first place.

It’s like fighting to be the captain of the Titanic after it hit the iceberg.

Rebar on June 10, 2010

Well, you have to start someplace. Why not the governorship? I do agree with your premise that the ship is sinking, but salvation will not come from a new governor with a single bailing bucket. The entire legislature must commit to fiscal sanity or be replaced. Without that, changing governors doesn’t do much.

SKYFOX on June 10, 2010 at 12:53 PM

On the other hand, California independents give Barack Obama a high job approval rating, 61/39, and outgoing Republican Governor Arnold Schwarzenegger a decidedly negative one, 40/59.

Since Arnie is basically an Obama Mini-Me in many respects, I can only assume these divergent results are due to proximity – we just see Arnie up close and personal, while only billionaires in San Francisco and stars in Hollywood get an audience with The One. (And they like him.)

irishspy on June 10, 2010 at 1:01 PM

Which is the pro-2nd-amendment candidate?

Kenosha Kid on June 10, 2010 at 1:02 PM

It’s like fighting to be the captain of the Titanic after it hit the iceberg.

But think of what you could get for the Titanic on eBay.

Emperor Norton on June 10, 2010 at 1:06 PM

I know you haters out there in your Montana hovel come out and hate on California for some more. Hey, you failed in one state, what makes you think you’re not gonna fail in BFE flyover country? I hate Arnold, but without the RINO to check the legislature:

1. Gay marriage would’ve been an irreversible reality a looooong time ago.
2. We would’ve had single-payer. I sh1t you not, the legislature passed single-payer legislation in the midst of our budget crisis. Even if they were told that the program would cost several hundred billion dollars!
3. Taxes as far as the eye can see.
4. Card check.

There are ZERO New Democrat-type Democrats in our legislature. They range from libtard, to Rage-infected libtards. You have no idea how important it is to keep the statehouse R. Even if is R(INO).

Apologetic California on June 10, 2010 at 1:29 PM

So he’s not worried about Whitman’s big chest?

Democrats are obsessed with Republican women and their boobs!

tsj017 on June 10, 2010 at 1:42 PM

Having lived in the state during his first infestation, it defies belief that California would even choose to consider returning Governor Moonbeam to office. Where is Mike Curb when you need him?

ya2daup on June 10, 2010 at 1:50 PM

I hope she kicks Moon Beams ass!

MCGIRV on June 10, 2010 at 2:15 PM

If Jerry gets (re-)elected, can the return of Zombie Governor Reagan be far behind?

irishspy on June 10, 2010 at 2:22 PM

Well, if Brown gives any more squirrely speeches like he did on election night, it’ll be a cakewalk for Whitman.

The Ugly American on June 10, 2010 at 3:24 PM

Is she campaigning against Ah-nold? I hope so.

itsnotaboutme on June 10, 2010 at 11:39 AM

Hello.

The only potential downfall I can see for her is ignoring and/or running from his inept leadership.

The Ugly American on June 10, 2010 at 3:27 PM

If Jerry gets (re-)elected, can the return of Zombie Governor Reagan be far behind?

irishspy on June 10, 2010 at 2:22 PM

I wish.

AaronGuzman on June 10, 2010 at 3:43 PM

If Jerry gets (re-)elected, can the return of Zombie Governor Reagan be far behind?

irishspy on June 10, 2010 at 2:22 PM

I wish.

AaronGuzman on June 10, 2010 at 3:43 PM

If only Zombie Ronald Reagan would return to govern California, I would gladly give him all of my brains to eat.

Mary in LA on June 10, 2010 at 4:10 PM

worried about Whitman’s big chest?

They’re real, and they’re, uh. . . real.

Emperor Norton on June 10, 2010 at 4:14 PM