Rubio, Crist tied in new Rasmussen poll
posted at 11:36 am on June 9, 2010 by Ed Morrissey
This could be a long summer in Florida. Six weeks ago, Charlie Crist rode a publicity bump from his announcement on going independent to a lead in the three-way Senate race. A couple of weeks later, Marco Rubio returned to the lead. Today, Rasmussen’s survey splits the difference and puts both men in a tie for the lead:
Republican Marco Rubio and Republican-turned-independent Charlie Crist are tied this month in Florida’s topsy-turvy race for the U.S. Senate.
A new Rasmussen Reports telephone survey of Likely Voters in the Sunshine State finds Rubio and Crist each earning 37% of the vote, while Democratic hopeful Kendrick Meek trails with 15% support. Eleven percent (11%) are undecided. …
Sixty percent (60%) of Florida voters now approve of the job Crist is doing as governor, up three points from a month ago. Thirty-seven percent (37%) disapprove. As governor, Crist has been very visible in addressing the Gulf Oil Spill
Still, 39% of all voters in the state say Crist will be hurt most by the ongoing investigation of alleged financial irregularities in the state Republican Party, while 31% think Rubio will be hurt the most.
The candidate with the most egg on his face right now is Kendrick Meek. Had Meek shown any talent as a top-flight candidate, he would be exploiting the split on the Right to at least contend for the lead. Instead, he’s within the margin of error with None of the Above/Undecided.
Why does Meek do so poorly? Crist so far has stolen his base. Crist gets 47% of the Democratic vote, while Meek only gets 28%. Crist also gets 41% of the independents, while Rubio comes within the MOE at 38%. Meek only gets 18% of independents and comes in third. Crist still gets 24% of the Republican vote, with Rubio getting 66%. If Democrats stick with Crist, he will have a powerful advantage in the fall. If Democrats eventually come home to Meek, though, Crist will be toast.
Crist still wins the favorability contest as well. He scores 62/37, suggesting that his series of policy reversals hasn’t hurt him … yet. Rubio only gets a 46/38, with 16% unsure (only 1% are undecided about Crist). Meek is underwater at 30/39, with 31% unsure, giving him the most upside but having a long way to go to get there.
The issues still favor Rubio. Fifty-six percent want ObamaCare repealed, and a plurality of 42% opposes a prohibition of offshore drilling in Florida. Obama is sinking in Florida with a 46/53 approval rating, and a whopping 78% believe that the bigger problem in Florida is not taxpayers unwilling to give their fair share but politicians unwilling to control government spending. It may take Floridians to make up their minds which candidate represents those views best, but hopefully they reach the right conclusion. At the very least, they’ve already discounted Meek, and that’s a start.
Update: Quinnipiac has it 37-33 for Crist over Rubio with registered voters. They also show 51/42 opposition to new offshore drilling in Florida. (via Randy Scudder on Twitter)
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Guess we need to put Pat Buchanan on the ballot again. :P
lorien1973 on June 9, 2010 at 11:39 AM
This, I will NEVER understand.
portlandon on June 9, 2010 at 11:40 AM
Oh hell, I think the dems are actually going to do it!
abobo on June 9, 2010 at 11:40 AM
Let me make this simple for you, Florida voters.:
You support lower spending by the federal government. Rubio opposed Porkulus. Crist campaigned in favor of it.
You support repealing Obamacare. Rubio wants to repeal it. Crist doesn’t.
You disapprove of Obama’s performance as President. Rubio wants to block his agenda as a US Senator. Crist is openly begging for the Administration’s backing in the Senate race.
In short, if you vote for Crist over Rubio, you are in effect admitting that you’re the dumbest people on the face of the earth.
Doughboy on June 9, 2010 at 11:41 AM
Slublog
“Charlie Crist is…The Riddler. Riddle me this…what ‘principle’ will he abandon next? ”
http://yfrog.com/9fwzpbj
the_nile on June 9, 2010 at 11:41 AM
But they probably won’t, because Meek has no chance of winning.
YYZ on June 9, 2010 at 11:42 AM
You would have to be a complete and utter moron to vote for Crist.
WisCon on June 9, 2010 at 11:43 AM
37% of Florida voters are in favor of Crist’s unprincipled shameless careerism and flipping on every issue he ever took a stand on? What gives?
cool breeze on June 9, 2010 at 11:44 AM
In other words: Meeks will likely drop out in the next 4 weeks and Crist will pick up all his supporters and will then lead Rubio 60-40.
Hey, Rubio — you better get your butt in gear. We can’t afford to have Crist win as a Democrat with GOP money.
Outlander on June 9, 2010 at 11:44 AM
One thing that Rubio must emphasize is that a vote for Crist is a vote for Dem control of the US Senate.
Mark1971 on June 9, 2010 at 11:44 AM
I have a baaaad feeling that Crist is going to be the next jr senator from Florida. He is winning it in the middle.
Juliet on June 9, 2010 at 11:46 AM
Crist’s October surprise will come from a Grand Jury. An election eve gift from Jim Greer.
meci on June 9, 2010 at 11:46 AM
Where did Ras sample, Key West?
Count me in the “suspicious” column.
stenwin77 on June 9, 2010 at 11:46 AM
Well, I still think when it comes down to it,Crist will lose.He’s a sleeze bag who has changed every one of his positions. Lets wait until the debates.Lets see him try to explain his change in party and his backtracking on every issue. Rubio should wipe the floor with him.
sandee on June 9, 2010 at 11:46 AM
Florida….srsly….what the hell is wrong with you?
It's Vintage, Duh on June 9, 2010 at 11:53 AM
There are a number of moderate Republicans here in FL, more than probably any other “southern” state. They are quite socially liberal and even economically liberal. Our state senate has a GOP supermajority, but it has only become more conservative recently because the mod Republicans are losing strength
Rubio should win. We’re a center-right state. What’s interesting is that Zero has a lower approvate rating in Quin than Rasmussen. He’s at 40% approval in Quin, which I can’t wait now for 2012!
TimTebowSavesAmerica on June 9, 2010 at 11:54 AM
*approval
TimTebowSavesAmerica on June 9, 2010 at 11:56 AM
Rubio stil heavily favored on Intrade.
Jon0815 on June 9, 2010 at 11:56 AM
Apparently there are a whole lot of folks down there in Florida for whom principles and integrity mean nothing.
What a sad commentary it is.
novaculus on June 9, 2010 at 11:58 AM
Yeah, right. And I’ll get a quarter from the Tooth Fairy under my pillow.
I’ve seen more Marco bumper stickers than I can count. Crist? Z-E-R-O. Of course, this is only southwest Florida. Since Crist dropped out of the primary, there is essentially no “primary” campaigning going on. Rubio had an event a month or so ago in my area… his 4th (or more?) in the last few months. When we were contacted about attending, we were told that it would be his last in the area until August or September. All of Crist’s public statements and appearances over the last 2 years are “pre-made” Rubio campaign ads… why spend the money now?
CC
CapedConservative on June 9, 2010 at 11:59 AM
Strange. Crist is like the Revenge of the Orange People. Is this a new, protected, minority group?
/
Cody1991 on June 9, 2010 at 12:00 PM
Ed said:
Q-piac also shows a much smaller shift towards Crist than Ras, from Crist +2 in their last poll, to Crist +4 now.
Jon0815 on June 9, 2010 at 12:00 PM
Yes we have a RINO in there that I once supported. I think that I even went to a campaign event and he wasn’t even orange. It was very nice with great people and good food.
And Western Pennsylvania sent Murtha back. It took a surgical accident to get rid of Murtha.
BTW, I wonder what candidates are planning events with good food and drink?
IlikedAUH2O on June 9, 2010 at 12:02 PM
People in Florida may be retarded.
Mr. Joe on June 9, 2010 at 12:04 PM
heh….you might be losing if you can’t even get the needle to move….
ted c on June 9, 2010 at 12:05 PM
i cant sing my oompa loompa crist is losing song anymore
:/
blatantblue on June 9, 2010 at 12:05 PM
Why are FL Democrats so racist, going for the orange man over the brown man and the black man?
thebrokenrattle on June 9, 2010 at 12:06 PM
So we’re finding that Dem voters are every bit as principled as the politicians they support?
JEM on June 9, 2010 at 12:06 PM
Spill baby spill. Rubio will go down with BP if he sticks to his current tune.
jonknee on June 9, 2010 at 12:07 PM
Crist is going to have to state sometime during the fall which side of the aisle he plans to caucus with if elected. My guess is his 24 percent of the Republican vote isn’t going to hold up very well after that.
jon1979 on June 9, 2010 at 12:10 PM
Crist makes a tanning appointment:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=U_ety9JGwRI
How could anyone in their right mind have support this dude…*sigh*
JetBoy on June 9, 2010 at 12:11 PM
I’m about to pull my hair out. How the &%$# does he score approval ratings like that? C’mon people, the guy is an opportunistic, lying weasel, the kind of political chameleon that should be loathed. Changing positions on the fly to suit whatever office he’s gunning for, believing he’s entitled to the seat. Refusing to return donations made in good faith, and handpicking the state GOP dude who was caught with his hand in the cookie jar. This isn’t rocket science.
B/w this, the lying scum in CT who will apparently get away with stolen valor, and the twisted garbage that is SC politics, I’m about done with the whole thing.
/rant off
changer1701 on June 9, 2010 at 12:14 PM
my thoughts exactly
cmsinaz on June 9, 2010 at 12:23 PM
Could we hold off on the labeling of Florida voters until the election actually happens? You have to admit that while Gov. Crist is looking all governie during the oil spill, the man has an uncanny ability to find a pile of crap to step in. And then there is Mr. Greer.
Cindy Munford on June 9, 2010 at 12:24 PM
I have reached the edge of not caring and I am damn close to jumping in, that I will now only worry about my own vote and to hell with everyone else.
How a total douchebag, pandering puke like Crist gets more than his families support is beyond me, I guess Americans just like to have azzholes lording it over them.
Bishop on June 9, 2010 at 12:29 PM
Charlie Crist, for all his shamelessness, remains a mighty popular governor in FLA. Handled improperly, this could turn out very badly for the GOP and conservatives.
If the FLGOP were smart, they would try to cut some kind of deal to bring Charlie back into the fold. Maybe clearing the field for him to take on Bill Nelson in ’12 would do the trick.
JohnGalt23 on June 9, 2010 at 12:30 PM
Hasn’t Crist essentially taken republican donation money and hired a former democrat politcal strategist to his senate election campaign? Florida have themselves a governor who is like a box of chocolates.
Americannodash on June 9, 2010 at 12:37 PM
This smells fishy.
rollthedice on June 9, 2010 at 12:43 PM
Polls like this one make me blow a gasket, too! >:-( But I keep telling myself, “Breathe, Mary, breathe — it’s only a poll, and it’s only June.”
A lot can and probably will happen between now and November.
Mary in LA on June 9, 2010 at 12:58 PM
Sorry, as a citizen of Florida I can’t go along with that. He has been totally unprincipled and I fail to see how bringing him back benefits anyone but him. And at this point it wouldn’t even do that since he already appears less then steadfast.
Cindy Munford on June 9, 2010 at 12:58 PM
Meeks is gonna inherit da D boot before it’s all over.
ornery_independent on June 9, 2010 at 1:01 PM
If you were smart, you would say the GOP should unleash the battleship guns on the traitor, and make damn sure he never, ever gets to the US Senate, no matter what jersey he decides to wear.
The man is lower than whale crap.
Destroy him, no mercy.
He so deserves it.
Brian1972 on June 9, 2010 at 1:01 PM
The fact that Crist holds a big lead over Meek among Democrats, and is barely winning Indies over Rubio, shows that Crist has become the center-LEFT candidate in the race.
There will undoubtedly be one or several debates between the three candidates before November, and Rubio should ask Crist jon1979′s question: For whom will you vote for Senate Majority Leader–Mitch McConnell or Harry Reid?
If Crist chooses McConnell and the Republicans, Crist will lose most of his support among Democrats. If Crist chooses the Democrats, those 24% of Republicans will switch to Rubio, and Crist will have to fight with Meek for Democrat votes.
So far, this looks like the mirror image of the 2006 CT Senate race, where Lieberman barely lost the Dem primary but ran and won as an Independent, because the Republican candidate was extremely weak, and many Republican voters chose Lieberman as the “lesser evil who could win”. In Florida, Crist has a chance as an Independent because “Meek is weak”, even though Florida’s electorate is much more Republican than that of Connecticut.
In CT in 2006, everybody knew that Lieberman (if he won) would caucus with the Democrats, but sometimes vote against them on military and foreign-policy issues. Nobody knows (yet) with which party Crist would caucus if elected, but he needs to be forced to choose. If Crist really wants to pull an Arlen Specter and become a Democrat, that’s his choice, but Republican voters need to know where he stands before wasting their votes (after they wasted their money) on Crist, because there is a REAL Republican in this race who CAN win!
Steve Z on June 9, 2010 at 1:04 PM
What with Sestak and Romanoff,
has anyone (hint, hint, Ed…)
considered looking into what the WH may have done
to – ahem - “incentivize” inaction by Meek?
Lockstein13 on June 9, 2010 at 1:04 PM
Crist should be riding another bump. The oil crisis is a boon for him.
AnninCA on June 9, 2010 at 1:04 PM
If you think any dem is only going to get just 15% of the vote in fla sen race then your smoking something.These 24% of rep.that are supporting Crist probably don,t even know what month or year it is.God this state is just as bad as Calf. and getting worse every day.
thmcbb on June 9, 2010 at 1:08 PM
And exactly what has Gov. Crist done in this oil fiasco but stand next to The Won. Again. Meek needs to get in on a photo op or two, see what it does for his numbers.
Cindy Munford on June 9, 2010 at 1:11 PM
I am absolutely flabbergasted as to how Crist is even remotely in this race against Rubio. Can someone from Florida explain this to me?
indy8 on June 9, 2010 at 1:21 PM
You forgot California.
leftnomore on June 9, 2010 at 1:32 PM
“Oh, she’s done. Finished. She won’t win the primary.”
Sayeth expert Dick Morris on Blanche Lincoln two nights ago. In Florida it’s not even the bottom of the first inning and not one debate has been held but I guess people are leaving the game for their cars.
Marcus on June 9, 2010 at 1:33 PM
No worries…Mittens has endorsed Rubio…
But seriously folks, Crist will crumple in a debate and when the going gets tough. I also see Jeb and Sarah throwing their support to Rubio and hammering him in the home stretch.
…and if the Jewish vote goes for Crist, they’ll get exactly what they deserve.
ornery_independent on June 9, 2010 at 1:38 PM
As a citizen of FLA, you should be aware of just how popular he is. This isn’t a case of rigged polls… he really could win that Senate seat as an independent. And there is no telling what he would do then, up to and including caucusing with the Dems.
Are you really willing to risk that?
JohnGalt23 on June 9, 2010 at 1:49 PM
Yes, there has been a nationally televised debate between Rubio and Crist on Fox News Sunday w/ Chris Wallace, back when Cha-Cha Chahly insisted he was going to remain a Republican. Rubio stuck to issues, but Crist had nothing but weak personal attacks (now debunked). If this were Rock ‘em Sock ‘em Robots, Rubio would have knocked his block off!
The Won will offer Meeks a job to drop out, then Crist will go full D…and then he will be destroyed in the 3 months leading up to the election.
But don’t take my word for it…go check out Intrade and follow the money….
ornery_independent on June 9, 2010 at 1:55 PM
OK Nicolo, just what exactly would you have the FLGOP unleash on him?
That he’s a traitor to his party? First of all, in case you hadn’t noticed, the GOP’s brand isn’t all that popular, especially in FLA. Secondly, everybody in FLA knows he has bailed on the party, and… surprise of surprises, his popularity went UP.
He’ll likely take the Jewish vote. He’ll likely take the Redneck Riviera vote. He’ll probably win Pinellas, Hillsborough, Volusia, Leon and Escambia counties. This is a problem.
But by all means, please… lay out your strategy for unleashing all our guns on a man who has 60% popularity statewide. I’m dying to hear this one.
JohnGalt23 on June 9, 2010 at 1:59 PM
Heh, from Marco Rubio’s website…
“If he can’t take a stand, where will he sit?”
If you’re in SW FLA, look for me…I’ll be the one campaigning for Rubio :P
ornery_independent on June 9, 2010 at 2:04 PM
We now have an official quantification of the size of the RINO voting bloc.
jwolf on June 9, 2010 at 2:06 PM
As O’Biden might say, I’ve got 2 words for ya…Jeb and Sarah.
ornery_independent on June 9, 2010 at 2:08 PM
I disagree with you on his popularity and think that begging him to come back will only hurt Republicans and him. Just exactly how many flip flops by him do you think the public is going to swallow? The man has opinions based on poll numbers.
Cindy Munford on June 9, 2010 at 2:09 PM
And besides, it’s a mid-term election, and so will boil down to voter turnout.
Hmmmm, now whose voters are more motivated?…
ornery_independent on June 9, 2010 at 2:13 PM
Can I assume “redneck riviera” is the Pensacola Ft Walton Destin area -
and you say the Obama hugging stimulus lover “probably takes” this, jongalt?
Marcus on June 9, 2010 at 2:19 PM
There’s a lot wrong with your post. You know NV, but FL is a different beast. The GOP brand is actually pretty good at the statewide level, supermajorites in both houses, and a probably sweep of statewide offices this Nov. We’ll have a shot to pick up four congressional seats as well.
Crist, will do well in his home base of St. Pete and be competitive in the I-4 corridor. Mod Republicans are also on the space coast and SW florida. However, Rubio will be strong in all of those areas as well. The only real area Crist will dominate is Broward and Palm Beach. Rubio should decisively win Miami-Dade, as well as everything north of Orlando.
TimTebowSavesAmerica on June 9, 2010 at 2:21 PM
Just watch the rube “independents” in Florida hand the election to Crist. Then he’ll side with the Democrats of course and the suck will begin in earnest. I just hope all the Florida retirees who vote for Crist in Nov keep their yaps shut when their doctor’s drop Medicare and they can’t get their hip surgeries without waiting in line for three years. My response will be “hey, you asked for this grandpa. Now shut up and suffer.”
WarEagle01 on June 9, 2010 at 2:31 PM
Rubio, and the Republicans need to pound it home to independents, and Republicans, that Crist is on the Dems dole, and will most likely caucus with them, as pay back.
Either they’ll take that as a sign of even worse to come, or they’re completely stupid, and have no issues with the country falling apart.
capejasmine on June 9, 2010 at 2:49 PM
CapedConservative on June 9, 2010 at 11:59 AM
Are you from Cape Coral?
Marybeth on June 9, 2010 at 3:39 PM
ornery_independent on June 9, 2010 at 2:04 PM
And you? Where in SW Florida are you?
Wow, had no idea so many SW Floridians were on HA!
Marybeth on June 9, 2010 at 3:42 PM
In SW Florida? Where specifically do we have moderate Republicans? We are pretty darned conservative here, at least in the 14th CD. Cape Coral, Fort Myers, Naples, Port Charlotte.
Guarantee you Rubio will win very big here.
Marybeth on June 9, 2010 at 3:45 PM
Port CHarlotte is kind of a mixed bag, alot of moderate vets there too. And yankees.
It is also growing fast and becoming much younger.
Squid Shark on June 9, 2010 at 4:03 PM
It just seems to me that there’s many primary races in SW FL where a conservative faces a social moderate. I know Mach and Buchanan had those. There was a recent state senate primary like that as well. As the whole, SW FL is very Republican and I still expect Rubio to do just fine there. I would actually like to see a SUSA poll on this race, as it’ll break down the results by area of the state.
TimTebowSavesAmerica on June 9, 2010 at 6:29 PM
I lived in Pt Charlotte for a number of years. Yes, there are Yankees there, but they tend to be conservative. Sure it’s gotten younger demographics over the years, as has lots of the coastal areas of Florida. But the younger people here as a whole are much more conservative than many of their counterparts around the country.
There are lots of vets and yankees in Lee & Collier counties too – very conservative as well.
I’m a Yankee transplant from NYC 42 years ago, as are many of the people I know here in Cape Coral/Ft Myers. Very conservative also.
Rubio will win in a landslide here. TTSA, sure the conservative may face a social moderate from time to time. But do they win? VERY rarely.
That SUSA poll, if it does what you say, would be interesting to see.
Marybeth on June 9, 2010 at 9:46 PM
Well just so you know I am not talking out of my ass, I grew up there. I have noted a strong demographic shift, specially since the hurricane.
I think the political climate is changing a little bit there but you are right, Rubio will win big.
Squid Shark on June 9, 2010 at 10:16 PM
Squid Shark on June 9, 2010 at 10:16 PM
Oh I didn’t think you were talking out of your orifice!:-) there’s no doubt since Charley things have changed a bit. But SW Florida is still an all-around conservative bastion.
Where in Pt Charlotte did you live? We lived off Midway west of Edgewater – the newer part of town in the 80s. My ex-husband still lives there and his house was decimated by Charley. Still has a $30,000 outstanding insurance claim with State Farm for the house, if you can believe that.
Marybeth on June 10, 2010 at 7:37 AM