Private sector employment grows only by 41,000, unemployment down to 9.7%; Update: “Extremely disappointing”; Update: 322K exit labor force

posted at 9:30 am on June 4, 2010 by Ed Morrissey

After a relatively large expansion in private-sector employment in April of 224,000, the Obama administration led people to believe that the growth rate would continue in May.  The White House leaked to several media sources that the number of new jobs would exceed a half-million positions, mainly through temporary Census Bureau expansion, and that the private sector would gain around 150,000 — somewhat less than April but still ahead of population growth.  Instead, the actual BLS numbers missed both marks:

Total nonfarm payroll employment grew by 431,000 in May, reflecting the hiring of 411,000 temporary employees to work on Census 2010, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. Private-sector employment changed little (+41,000). Manufacturing, temporary help services, and mining added jobs, while construction employment declined. The unemployment rate edged down to 9.7 percent.

In order to keep up with population growth, private-sector employment has to expand by at least 100,000 jobs a month. So far, the Obama administration has only seen that once, in April. Falling back to 41,000 is a drop of 75% of the growth from the previous month and puts the US back in a net job loss situation.

The problem of marginally-attached workers grew, and is reflected in the A-16 table. Comparing May 2009 to May 2010, the number of discouraged workers rose from 792,000 to 1,083,000, while the number of discouraged workers remained steady at 2.2 million. The number of people not in the labor force but who want work — including the “discouraged” workers — rose from 5.865 million to 6.381 million in the past month (not seasonally adjusted — BLS does not provide historical data with seasonal adjustments).

The Washington Post certainly expected better:

The headlines right now are ominous — from the European debt crisis to a gargantuan gulf oil spill to renewed political tensions in several corners of the world. Financial markets have faltered as a result.

But the U.S. economic recovery is still plugging along.

That is the message from the latest wave of economic data, including several reports Thursday. And Friday morning, the Labor Department plans to release what is expected to be the best report on job growth in years, though the numbers will be boosted by temporary hiring by the Census Bureau.

It points back to a spectacularly bad attempt at expectations management by the White House. Either they didn’t know what was coming, or thought that they could spin it into sunshine. The stumble on private-sector growth negates the “we’re gaining strength” claim coming from the Obama administration, and it fits into a narrative of stagnation and incompetence. No one will look at a +41K month as a big step in the right direction, not after the administration’s bragging about the four-times-stronger number in April.

Update: Rob Port notes that 95.5% of all job growth in May came from the government.

Update II: CNBC reports that Wall Street isn’t impressed, either:

US employers added 431,000 jobs to nonfarm payrolls in May, but 411,000 of those were temporary census workers. The private sector added just 41,000 jobs: Manufacturing, temporary help and mining added jobs, while construction declined. That number was also well short of the more than 500,000 economists had expected. The unemployment rate, however, fell to 9.7 percent from 9.9 percent in April.

“This number is extremely disappointing,” said Todd Schoenberger, managing director at LandColt trading. However, he said, it should come as no surprise. “Considering first time jobless claims have been inching higher over the past four weeks … and GDP came in at a lackluster 3%, American companies are going to be reluctant to hire.”

“The two areas of potential vulnerability for the economy remain payrolls and housing and they’re both staggering a good deal,” Art Cashin, director of floor operations at UBS, said on CNBC this morning. “From a market standpoint, I think we’re going to switch over and start issuing Dow 10,000 helmets!”

The Dow was down 160 points shortly after opening and treading back towards the 10,000 mark.

Update III: Why did the unemployment rate go down?  People have begun exiting the labor force again (via Jonah Goldberg):

The unemployment rate fell to a seasonally adjusted 9.7% in May from 9.9% in April, according to a separate survey of 60,000 households. Economists were expecting the jobless rate to sink to 9.8%.

The decline wasn’t particularly good news, however, because the drop was due to 322,000 people dropping out of the labor force. While unemployment dropped by 287,000 to 15 million, employment also fell, dipping 35,000 to 139.4 million.

The participation rate dropped by two tenths to 65%.

Those are not indicators of a growing economy.


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But the U.S. economic recovery is still plugging along.

No thanks to liberalism. Karl Marx wasn’t a Milton Friedman either.

The wind in DC doesn’t blow, it sucks, us all dry.

Speakup on June 4, 2010 at 10:32 AM

Actually, no they don’t. That would not inflate the number of Census jobs counted. They get the Census jobs added number by looking at the number of people on the Census payroll on a specific date, and then comparing that to the number on the same date the month before.

Jon0815 on June 4, 2010 at 9:48 AM

Take listen to this.
It is counted as a new job, Cavuto has the actual statement from the census department.

right2bright on June 4, 2010 at 10:34 AM

Over half a trillion dollars is sitting in the Democrat wallet and nobody seems to care.

jeff_from_mpls on June 4, 2010 at 10:26 AM

People have noticed and demanded answers, but they aren’t getting any.

What will it be used for? Probably to buy elections. It was never intended to be put to legitimate uses.

And….. there’s a lot of chatter about the need for another stimulus package. This is really sick.

Cody1991 on June 4, 2010 at 10:35 AM

What will [the unspent stimulus billions] be used for? Probably to buy elections. It was never intended to be put to legitimate uses.

Cody1991 on June 4, 2010 at 10:35 AM

I agree, it’s a slush fund. Maybe that’s why the socialist party seems so unaffected by the polling numbers that say cataclysm — they understand that the will of the people doesn’t even enter the equation anymore.

I’m really concerned about this. I think it’s a bigger story than Sestak and the others that opinion-mongers on the right are beating to death. Sestak is a side-show compared to this, if the slush fund is what you and I think it is.

jeff_from_mpls on June 4, 2010 at 10:41 AM

Will regulation increase? Will penalties and feees increase? Will taxes increase? And if they do by how much and who will suffer the most? Who knows?

Fred 2 on June 4, 2010 at 10:11 AM

ON. ZEE. MONEY.

Archimedes on June 4, 2010 at 10:28 AM

Yep. You would have to be a complete fool to be adding significant jobs at this time.

In fact, my company has finally given up on guessing, and are planning on getting screwed by this administration.

25% workforce reduction planned in next 30 days.

Thank God I am in the Automation field.

cntrlfrk on June 4, 2010 at 10:42 AM

All you people who voted for Obama and the Democrats…, you got what you voted for: SOCIALISM. Whoopee!

Permanent high unemployment, no job prospects (isn’t being young great?), and just around the corner: runaway inflation.

Keep voting yourself poorer.

Prosperity is just around the corner. Not for you, but maybe the next generation, when it discovers the economic wasteland you’ve condemned them to.

Stepan on June 4, 2010 at 10:42 AM

As long as the Obama admin continues its attacks on the private sector, one shouldn’t expect the economy to change except to possibly worsen.

docdave on June 4, 2010 at 10:42 AM

Resignation? You have got to be kidding, NEVER.GONNA. HAPPEN!

I truly think that Obama does not intend to exit in ’16 if he won another term. This man’s narcissism is to reminiscent of the despots world over. It is why you see the indoctrnation of grade schoolers who are not going to of voting in this decade.

Google “My New Bicycle & 260 Ways Barack Loves Me” in my local library this book is laid out in the kiddie section on each table, every morning! WTF!

Ther is no rational reason for this kinda sh!t, unless you intend on being in office in 2020.

Progressives are authoritarian by definition, authoritarians are tyrants, tyrants never leave office willingly. This is what made G. Washington such a great man, he is the 1st head of state in history to step down of his own volition.

Archimedes on June 4, 2010 at 10:44 AM

Docdave: spot on

cmsinaz on June 4, 2010 at 10:44 AM

For those of you complaining about the numbers not adding up, just remember the old maxim:

You could lay a thousand economists end to end, and they still wouldn’t reach a conclusion.

JohnGalt23 on June 4, 2010 at 10:46 AM

Comparing May 2009 to May 2010, the number of discouraged workers rose from 792,000 to 1,083,000, while the number of discouraged workers remained steady at 2.2 million.

Wait, what?

Paul_in_NJ on June 4, 2010 at 10:48 AM

I’m really concerned about this. I think it’s a bigger story than Sestak and the others that opinion-mongers on the right are beating to death. Sestak is a side-show compared to this, if the slush fund is what you and I think it is.

jeff_from_mpls on June 4, 2010 at 10:41 AM

I agree completely. Dems don’t seem to be as concerned as they should be.

Imagine how many dead bodies they can dig up to vote with all that money? How much will go to unions to get out the vote?

I despise these people so much that it’s becoming unhealthy.

Cody1991 on June 4, 2010 at 10:49 AM

I understand that the administration is set to announce it’s new version of a jobs bill today: 2011 Census.

BKeyser on June 4, 2010 at 10:55 AM

What will [the unspent stimulus billions] be used for? Probably to buy elections. It was never intended to be put to legitimate uses.

Cody1991 on June 4, 2010 at 10:35 AM
I agree, it’s a slush fund. Maybe that’s why the socialist party seems so unaffected by the polling numbers that say cataclysm — they understand that the will of the people doesn’t even enter the equation anymore.

I’m really concerned about this. I think it’s a bigger story than Sestak and the others that opinion-mongers on the right are beating to death. Sestak is a side-show compared to this, if the slush fund is what you and I think it is.

jeff_from_mpls on June 4, 2010 at 10:41 AM

I agree, and is why Soros launched the Sec’y of States Project to have his minions in charge of counting and validating vote tallies. We saw these people in action in both the Coleman(MN Sen) & Rossi(WA Gov) races to nsame but 2 off the top of my head. I have been ruminating over the Dhim’s lack of concern re; polls since the begining of the HCR debacle.

The RNC needs to recruit 10′s of 1000′s of pollwatchers, poll judges and boo-coo lawyers for 10 & 12!

Archimedes on June 4, 2010 at 10:58 AM

“Extremely disappointing”;

Unprecedented

NoFanofLibs on June 4, 2010 at 11:00 AM

I haven’t read the comments, so I don’t know if anyone has pointed out that fully 215k “jobs” are a figment of the BLS imagination. They have no support for those jobs. They just use computer models to come up with their number, likely programmed by Al Gore’s global warming programmers.

I found this elsewhere:

Thought experiment: take the +431k number, subtract the temporary census number (411k), and we have +20k.

Next, subtract the temporaries (31k) and we have -11k.

Finally, subtract the scandalously fraudulent birth/death (215k) and we get a -226k print.

-226k!

-226k

flyfisher on June 4, 2010 at 11:01 AM

The RNC needs to recruit 10’s of 1000’s of pollwatchers, poll judges and boo-coo lawyers for 10 & 12!

Archimedes on June 4, 2010 at 10:58 AM

Yes, and they will need people to protect voters from Black Panther thugs. They’ll probably get some of this money to “help” the Dems.

Cody1991 on June 4, 2010 at 11:04 AM

On another note, I love Ed and Allah, but Hotair seriously needs to add someone with a firm grasp of markets, economics, and finance. The depth of writing here on money-related matters is Hannityesque at best.

flyfisher on June 4, 2010 at 11:04 AM

The depth of writing here on money-related matters is Hannityesque at best.

flyfisher on June 4, 2010 at 11:04 AM

Ouch.

cntrlfrk on June 4, 2010 at 11:10 AM

On another note, I love Ed and Allah, but Hotair seriously needs to add someone with a firm grasp of markets, economics, and finance. The depth of writing here on money-related matters is Hannityesque at best.

flyfisher on June 4, 2010 at 11:04 AM

Yeah, I suggested this to Ed a long time ago. People really need to get a handle on what’s going on. Education is the key, and one doesn’t have to get a degree in economics.

BTW, thanks for directing me to Denniger. I’ve been reading his blog daily and from there have begun to hang out at Zerohedge. There’s a lot of good information out there. People have to make the effort. Once that happens politics will be more understandable. Follow the money….follow the money…… follow the money……

Cody1991 on June 4, 2010 at 11:11 AM

Someone help me fill in some blanks here. The gov’t claims to have hired 420,000 census workers. But, according to Cavuto yesterday, many of these “jobs” were the same folks being hired/fired multiple times. So, the employment numbers are inflated. On top of that, when census workers get laid off they can’t claim unemployment. Why? When the census ends (June?) those 420,000 aren’t going back on the unemployment roles. Do they just disappear?

txhsmom on June 4, 2010 at 11:13 AM

I think I’m going to take Glenn Beck’s advice and buy some gold.

SoulGlo on June 4, 2010 at 11:18 AM

All of this, taken in toto really makes this administration seem incompetent. They’re even telling the census workers to pad their time sheets.

..seems, sirrah, nay seems..is!

The War Planner on June 4, 2010 at 11:18 AM

Those are not indicators of a growing economy.

Masterfully understated.

JohnGalt23 on June 4, 2010 at 11:20 AM

Odie 1941 said:

Total nonfarm payroll employment grew by 431,000 in May, reflecting the hiring of 411,000 temporary employees to work on Census 2010, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today

So add up May census workers (411,000), April census workers (440,000) and March census workers (45,000)Februaray (50,000) and Jan (35,000) “hired”.

If there isn’t overlapping – that would be roughly 1M census jobs, when in fact there are a finite number of census workers needed – 573,000.

Here is the actual us.census.gov website and payroll:
http://2010.census.gov/news/releases/jobs/temp-workers.html

According to them 440,000 workers were added in April. According to them – through May 22nd – there was a net loss of 28,000 census workers.

Now reports say they “added” 411,000 in May.

Did they hire 439,000 people from May 22nd – May 31st to end up with a net 411,000 jobs in May???

Their own data is fraudulent It is manipulated from April – May… which ironically coincides with the “glowing unemployment numbers of temp census hires”

I don’t see where you are getting the figure of 440,000 for April. According to the May 28 WSJ article linked below, today’s Census numbers were to be derived from comparing the number of persons employed by the Census during the period April 11-17 (156,335), to the number employed May 9-15 (573,779). So it was expected that today’s jobs report would show a gain of 417,000 Census jobs (573,779-156,335). I’m not sure why it actually came in at 411,000.

http://blogs.wsj.com/economics/2010/05/28/census-hiring-set-to-go-supernova/

Jon0815 on June 4, 2010 at 11:20 AM

SoulGlo on June 4, 2010 at 11:18 AM

Silver is easier to trade for beans.

txhsmom on June 4, 2010 at 11:20 AM

DJIA – 231. EURUSD is trying to break 1.2000

Uh, oh.

Cody1991 on June 4, 2010 at 11:24 AM

DJIA – 231. EURUSD is trying to break 1.2000

Uh, oh.

Cody1991 on June 4, 2010 at 11:24 AM

It’s sad how ridiculously obvious it is that the markets are being manipulated and yet people are either blind to it or don’t care. If the market wasn’t being manipulated, we would have been below and stayed below 10,000 a long time ago. That last 900+ drop should have been permanent, but someone drove everything back up to try and buy time for something.

MobileVideoEngineer on June 4, 2010 at 11:33 AM

MobileVideoEngineer on June 4, 2010 at 11:33 AM

Yep. They’re trying to keep this afloat along with the fantasies that we’re in a recovery. Enough with the fairy tales!

The various CB’s are trying to prop up the euro, but it just plowed through 1.2000.

Cody1991 on June 4, 2010 at 11:37 AM

And….. there’s a lot of chatter about the need for another stimulus package. This is really sick.

Cody1991 on June 4, 2010 at 10:35 AM

Maybe it’s time for a demonstration period with the battle cry of JOBS. They are not getting hammered for this.

wi farmgirl on June 4, 2010 at 11:41 AM

Cody1991 on June 4, 2010 at 11:11 AM

Yep, I’m a big fan of Zerohedge too.

Archimedes on June 4, 2010 at 11:43 AM

I don’t see where you are getting the figure of 440,000 for April. According to the May 28 WSJ article linked below, today’s Census numbers were to be derived from comparing the number of persons employed by the Census during the period April 11-17 (156,335), to the number employed May 9-15 (573,779). So it was expected that today’s jobs report would show a gain of 417,000 Census jobs (573,779-156,335). I’m not sure why it actually came in at 411,000.

http://blogs.wsj.com/economics/2010/05/28/census-hiring-set-to-go-supernova/

Jon0815 on June 4, 2010 at 11:20 AM

Let me get this straight… you are “quoting a WSJ” article – instead of reading the census.gov’s own website on Total Monthly Census Payrolls…

Am I getting this right?

Go to the f’ing data source from the gov. entity reporting the numbers…

Wow, just wow.

2010 Gov Census Website: Monthly Census Payrolls

Quite frankly, I am surprised this wasn’t added to Ed’s Post… its all right there, including the fraud being committed.

Odie1941 on June 4, 2010 at 11:44 AM

Maybe it’s time for a demonstration period with the battle cry of JOBS. They are not getting hammered for this.

wi farmgirl on June 4, 2010 at 11:41 AM

The media would call the protesters ‘racists.’ ;)

It’s really going to hit the fan as municipal workers get laid off – gov’t jobs going down the drain. This administration clearly does not care about the private sector.

Cody1991 on June 4, 2010 at 11:46 AM

I am hiring no one at this time. When I do need help will I hire employees?

No frickin’ way.

I will purchase work by way of subcontract so that I don’t have to deal with all of the new crap that’s in the works and I can fire people at will without unemployment cost worries.

I sure miss Ronald Reagan.

trapeze on June 4, 2010 at 11:50 AM

Thanks Mr. Obama ……………your policies are working beautifully./sarc

SC.Charlie on June 4, 2010 at 11:51 AM

But Obama told us a year ago we were “back from the brink” as far as the economy goes.

Must have meant he was ‘back from the links’…

catmman on June 4, 2010 at 11:52 AM

It’s sad how ridiculously obvious it is that the markets are being manipulated and yet people are either blind to it or don’t care. If the market wasn’t being manipulated, we would have been below and stayed below 10,000 a long time ago. That last 900+ drop should have been permanent, but someone drove everything back up to try and buy time for something.

MobileVideoEngineer on June 4, 2010 at 11:33 AM

I read an article the other day on how inflation is calculated and weighted and how that has evolved since the 70′s to dramatically understate it. This pertains, the DJIA is an amalgamation of a bundle of stocks quoted in dollars, if those dollars quoted are of diminished value in a percentage, then it follows tha diminished percentage be carried over to DJIA. If conservatively the dollar is worth 20% less (consider true value the relation to gold-$1200) than in 2000, then true est’d value of the trading in those 2000 dollars at appx DJIA 8000, not 10,000.

And that 20% is being way generous when gold in 2000 was $6-700pr oz.

Archimedes on June 4, 2010 at 11:52 AM

The media would call the protesters ‘racists.’ ;)

It’s really going to hit the fan as municipal workers get laid off – gov’t jobs going down the drain. This administration clearly does not care about the private sector.

Cody1991 on June 4, 2010 at 11:46 AM

Wait till they find out their fat pensions will be way underfunded too. We are already seeing lay offs in schools, and nunicipal workers here. When SEIU workers start to get pink slips then it will get dicey. And Cody will they be called racists?

wi farmgirl on June 4, 2010 at 11:53 AM

Next up: BP Leak Drags Down Economy!

Count on it.

Keep in mind that Obama and gang still have the ability to determine if a company is a danger to the economy, take it over and wind it down. BP may not be an American Company, but they have a lot of assetts here.

cntrlfrk on June 4, 2010 at 11:56 AM

Looks like Census temps can be guaranteed work through November?

Dr. ZhivBlago on June 4, 2010 at 11:59 AM

A surgeon, an engineer, and an economist were discussing whose profession was the oldest.

The surgeon said it was his, because God had to be a surgeon to take a rib from Adam to create Eve.

Then the engineer said it was his, because God had to be an engineer to create the heavens and earth out of chaos.

Then the economist said, “And who do you think created the chaos?”

Emperor Norton on June 4, 2010 at 12:00 PM

And Cody will they be called racists?

wi farmgirl on June 4, 2010 at 11:53 AM

No. They will lash out at the rest of us. Union members have no second thoughts about using violence either especially when Zip encourages it. Remember the guy who was beaten at a Tea Party rally?

The official WH comment will be that they are “victims of Bush’s failed policies.”

Sorry, all. I’m terribly depressed and worried about all of this.

Cody1991 on June 4, 2010 at 12:03 PM

BP may not be an American Company, but they have a lot of assetts here.

cntrlfrk on June 4, 2010 at 11:56 AM

Which is what makes threats nationalize, ala Chavez, so dangerous. It’d be the final straw and we’d officially become a bannana republic. Foreign investment in the US, which due to Euro instability is currently propping us up, evaporate in a heartbeat.

These threats are not as idle as they may seem, we’ve already nationalized AIG, 2 auto Co’s, over 200 banks and when HRC is implented the entire insurance industry + hospitals clincs etc. People abroad see this and if we were to take over a foreign entities US ops the bottom will drop out, big!

Archimedes on June 4, 2010 at 12:08 PM

Archimedes on June 4, 2010 at 11:52 AM

Inflation is primarily understated because the price index for health care is still calculated at something very small (like 1/16th of the economy, but don’t quote that), when it’s actually about a sixth of the economy.

So rapidly rising health care costs don’t get factored in much at all.

BadgerHawk on June 4, 2010 at 12:11 PM

From zerohedge:

Bob Janjuah On Brewing Popular Anger At The Failure Of Keynesianism

“Having elected people who said everything would be all right, ultimately the US and UK had to elect Reagan and Thatcher to get us back on track” and eventually angry voters in the developed world will shift to the far right. Some more US-centric perspectives: “The US mid-terms will be crucial. We will see a shift to the right as the Tea Party movement demands change. “There are 220 million people in middle America who are angry and believe stimulus spending has been wasted on vested interest and the banks that they believe got us into this mess. For all the talk of positive growth in America, those outside of LA and New York are hurting and want cuts in government spending, not more borrowing and spending.”

video interview: http://www.zerohedge.com/article/bob-janjuah-brewing-popular-anger-failure-keynesianism

Cody1991 on June 4, 2010 at 12:13 PM

On another note, I love Ed and Allah, but Hotair seriously needs to add someone with a firm grasp of markets, economics, and finance. The depth of writing here on money-related matters is Hannityesque at best.

flyfisher on June 4, 2010 at 11:04 AM

Yeah, I suggested this to Ed a long time ago. People really need to get a handle on what’s going on. Education is the key, and one doesn’t have to get a degree in economics.

BTW, thanks for directing me to Denniger. I’ve been reading his blog daily and from there have begun to hang out at Zerohedge. There’s a lot of good information out there. People have to make the effort. Once that happens politics will be more understandable. Follow the money….follow the money…… follow the money……

Cody1991 on June 4, 2010 at 11:11 AM

I don’t want to seem harsh, but I was just stating what has been obvious to me for a long time, and that is this: most conservative commentators, whether bloggers or tv/radio personalities are much better on politics, foreign policy, legal, and social issues than they are on economics. They just don’t understand the nuances of the business and economic news in the same way they understand the rest of the news. That’s not a crime, few do.

For example, without the FED, neither the internet nor housing bubbles would have been possible, but we almost never hear or read any monetary analysis from the conservative intelligentsia. Snarky jabs aimed at Ron Paul (who usually deserves them) are the closest most come to delving into monetary policy. People like Karl Denninger, Mish Shedlock, Peter Schiff, and the guys at Zerohedge have done great work and it’s a shame they aren’t being listened to by more people. I don’t agree with their every word, but I’ve learned a lot from all of them.

flyfisher on June 4, 2010 at 12:13 PM

So rapidly rising health care costs don’t get factored in much at all.

BadgerHawk on June 4, 2010 at 12:11 PM

They also fudge the CPI numbers extracting food and energy. Then they tell us that COLA has not risen. It’s all junk and lies. Anyone who drives or shops at the supermarket knows what living costs are and how much they have gone up.

Cody1991 on June 4, 2010 at 12:16 PM

It’s sad how ridiculously obvious it is that the markets are being manipulated and yet people are either blind to it or don’t care. If the market wasn’t being manipulated, we would have been below and stayed below 10,000 a long time ago. That last 900+ drop should have been permanent, but someone drove everything back up to try and buy time for something.

MobileVideoEngineer on June 4, 2010 at 11:33 AM

AMEN! Mob casinos in Bronx basements are less rigged.

flyfisher on June 4, 2010 at 12:16 PM

Which is what makes threats nationalize, ala Chavez, so dangerous. It’d be the final straw and we’d officially become a bannana republic. Foreign investment in the US, which due to Euro instability is currently propping us up, evaporate in a heartbeat.

Archimedes on June 4, 2010 at 12:08 PM

Just a heartbeat away, unless we can prevent the elections from being frauded in Nov. Can it wait until Nov?

wi farmgirl on June 4, 2010 at 12:25 PM

Anyone who drives or shops at the supermarket knows what living costs are and how much they have gone up.

Cody1991 on June 4, 2010 at 12:16 PM

Even in rural areas it has gone up. Don’t let the bastards get you down Cody.

wi farmgirl on June 4, 2010 at 12:27 PM

They need to count the whole unemployment numbers. The ability to “game” the numbers by removing those they believe have left the work force is wrong.

What is the real unemployment rate? 18%? Put that on a few headlines and heads will roll (but the left will never do it).

Theophile on June 4, 2010 at 12:37 PM

BadgerHawk on June 4, 2010 at 12:11 PM

And don’t forget that, included in that calculation are home prices which are down 20% at minimum, 40% in some areas. This to is a regressive factor counter balancing the actual dollar’s purchasing power.

Back of the enevelope estimate, I’d say when these factors are weighted towards the actual DJIA index value in 2000 dollars, the 10,000ish we are looking at really is closer to 6-7000 in terms relative to gold trading at $1200.

Archimedes on June 4, 2010 at 12:37 PM

Let me get this straight… you are “quoting a WSJ” article – instead of reading the census.gov’s own website on Total Monthly Census Payrolls…

The WSJ article *uses* the TMCP numbers from the census.gov site, and explains to you which of those TCMP numbers are added up to arrive at the monthly number released today. You have yet to explain how you arrived at your own supposed “monthly” numbers, such as “440,000″ for April, since those numbers are not posted on the TCMP site.

Jon0815 on June 4, 2010 at 12:38 PM

322K exit the workforce? I wonder why? Not likely a voluntary exit, IMO. I wonder if the unemployment benefits are enticing them out. The temporary fudging of these numbers through false stimuli (census jobs) is insulting to the intelligence of people in this country.

ted c on June 4, 2010 at 12:39 PM

Cody1991 on June 4, 2010 at 12:16 PM

No joke there, I just came back from a trip and found that my local grocer is now charging $6+ for a doz eggs. Discounting food from the COLA is insane, and only going to get worse as Bam-bam is still intent on pushing an energy bill(read: Crap & Tax). The price of food is inextricably tied to energy & fertilizer costs.

Archimedes on June 4, 2010 at 12:42 PM

WORSE THAN A DEPRESSION

As the economic crisis approaches the two-year point, it is apparent that “this time is different.” Few analysts believe that we are going to recover from this Great Recession in a fashion that resembles prior recoveries. Most argue about how long it might run (Japan’s recovery is now two decades old), and whether inflation or deflation results. Two years into the problem, these issues are still unclear.

Monty Pelerin, American Thinker

maverick muse on June 4, 2010 at 12:44 PM

I wonder what this will look like after they’ve revised it down?

stvnscott on June 4, 2010 at 12:46 PM

AS IF what gets reported OFFICIALLY is anything more than what the government wants to propagandize. Regardless of what gets reported by this government, things are getting progressively worse. And if Obama prints money to “have more”, the economy takes a running leap over the cliff.

maverick muse on June 4, 2010 at 12:47 PM

This bad news is making my unicorn nervous.

Of course, the unicorn recipes I downloaded aren’t helping its attitude either.

Justrand on June 4, 2010 at 12:49 PM

Buffett Warns of Municipal Debt Meltdown

maverick muse on June 4, 2010 at 12:49 PM

I wonder what this will look like after they’ve revised it down?

stvnscott on June 4, 2010 at 12:46 PM

What’s so incredible is that we don’t even have to wait until the revision to know that this is bad. If these numbers would have come out in December or January we would have had trolls on here all day saying that the economy was coming back. Even the trolls are starting to see the truth and I think it’s starting to hit them in the gut and it’s starting to hurt.

I’m still incredibly irritated at how much the stocks are being manipulated though. It’s so obvious yet people are still blind to it (or at least the media is). I mean the Dow dipped below 10,000 today for like 20 seconds and then it went back up.

MobileVideoEngineer on June 4, 2010 at 12:52 PM

This bad news is making my unicorn nervous.

Of course, the unicorn recipes I downloaded aren’t helping its attitude either.

Justrand on June 4, 2010 at 12:49 PM

Hey its lunch time CST, have enough for 2? I’m hungry!

Archimedes on June 4, 2010 at 12:52 PM

No joke there, I just came back from a trip and found that my local grocer is now charging $6+ for a doz eggs. Discounting food from the COLA is insane, and only going to get worse as Bam-bam is still intent on pushing an energy bill(read: Crap & Tax). The price of food is inextricably tied to energy & fertilizer costs.

Archimedes on June 4, 2010 at 12:42 PM

Exactly. Social Security recipients did not get a COLA increase this year – at least not in my state.

I noticed all of this a few years ago when the cost of dog good kept ratcheting up. I finally realized it was because the cost of corn was going up because of the stupid ethanol production policies. Add in the cost of transportation, etc.

It’s the same with everything. When small, everyday items increase 10-30% every time you go to the store it adds up.

Another thing that drives me crazy is all this talk about conserving energy. OK. Fine. But these guys in the administration know that millions of us must drive to work. There is no public transportation. With the scarcity of jobs people have to often drive longer distances for employment. It seems they are waging war on us, and I don’t think that is a terribly fanciful, paranoid view.

Cody1991 on June 4, 2010 at 12:55 PM

Mark Belling is hammering this on Rush now.

wi farmgirl on June 4, 2010 at 12:57 PM

MobileVideoEngineer on June 4, 2010 at 12:52 PM

It’s so obvious, isn’t it? The Plunge Protection Team will probably step in during the last few minutes of trading to prop up the market. That’s what traders are calling the Fed (if that’s who is doing it). Futures traders are saying there is no liquidity. It’s very spooky. Central Bankers are trying to prop up the euro with interventions. In the end, I can’t see how they can continue to do this forever. It doesn’t work. It only postpones the inevitable.

Cody1991 on June 4, 2010 at 1:04 PM

It only postpones the inevitable.

Cody1991 on June 4, 2010 at 1:04 PM

Where does that put us? (USA) Do we go down completely?

wi farmgirl on June 4, 2010 at 1:15 PM

flyfisher on June 4, 2010 at 12:13 PM

Agree. Zerohedge gets linked here every once in a great while. I don’t think I’ve ever seen Denninger linked. I don’t know why, but it may be because some of his stuff is quite dense and loaded with jargon familiar only to a few.

It is a pity Denninger isn’t a bit more accessible. (he’s not writing for a wider audience, which is his call.) He’s super bright and willing to call em as he sees em.

for folks who haven’t been there, go to
http://market-ticker.denninger.net/

james23 on June 4, 2010 at 1:15 PM

Cody1991 on June 4, 2010 at 12:55 PM

You have to come to grips with a simple fact, their intent is not to turn the economy around but to drive off a cliff. Obama’s goal is “social justice’ & “fairness”, if he has to bring everyone DOWN to make it “fair”, thats what he’ll do. He said so at the primary debate in answer to Charlie Gibson.

Go to 40 secs in…

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=__L5DOxghD4

Philosphically the reason is simple, imagine you have a race between Jesse Owens and Jackie Gleason. No regimen of diet, exercise or even steroids will get Jackie competitive with Jesse, so to acheive “social justice” the only thing you can do is impair Jesse. No way around it.

Obama, Sunstein, Holdren and the whole rest of the crappy crew of the USS Progressive are intent on bringing the US down to 3rd world status. This is why the target carbon emission levels are vset at those of 1910, thats total, not per capita. In 1910 US pop was 70mil, now it is 310mil, so to to acheive that level per capita you have adopt practices of 1867. Thats no running water, no elec, no autos, nada, thats 3rd world baby.

Ands thats their vision for us.

Archimedes on June 4, 2010 at 1:22 PM

james23 on June 4, 2010 at 1:15 PM

Thanks for the link, saved it I’ll check it out.

Archimedes on June 4, 2010 at 1:26 PM

Just think, a lot of this would have corrected itself by now…. Now the fall will be much worse.

That’s what happens when the most important thing to the ruling party is getting re-elected.

What is so maddening about all of this, is that most of the vast clueless class has no idea just how culpable the media has been in this destruction of our economy.

The left has been given a free pass to completely destroy our values, economy and security, and they are taking advantage of it.

AND… to have the audacity to play the race game and smear everyday Americans over issues like illegal immigration and the Tea Party makes me ill.

reaganaut on June 4, 2010 at 1:28 PM

The WSJ article *uses* the TMCP numbers from the census.gov site, and explains to you which of those TCMP numbers are added up to arrive at the monthly number released today. You have yet to explain how you arrived at your own supposed “monthly” numbers, such as “440,000″ for April, since those numbers are not posted on the TCMP site.

Jon0815 on June 4, 2010 at 12:38 PM

I have an idea to fix your confusion: Stop relying on WSJ articles and “relaese reprots” – and just use the monthly data , provided by the census department, a calculator and a pen and paper if needed.

I don’t believe the narrative which is why the raw numbers posted spell out the bs “new May numbers” from the previuos month.

Start there. Just look at month end April. Then May 22nd date. Then the so-called “411,000″ jobs.

The 440,000 is a result of 411,000 + the April loss 29,000, per the raw numbers.

It is a net cumulative number. Do you understand that?

Odie1941 on June 4, 2010 at 1:28 PM

Where does that put us? (USA) Do we go down completely?

wi farmgirl on June 4, 2010 at 1:15 PM

No. If we get the socialists out of office, we can get back to the principles that made this country a success.

Denniger offers some ideas here: http://market-ticker.denninger.net/

A Dem controlled Congress with a marxist in the WH was my worst nightmare come true. Their determination to replicate the failed policies of socialist countries is like a suicide mission.

As much as I dislike the fact that the US is burdened with being the world’s policeman, one has to ask who will fill that void when we are so weakened that we pull out. The political ramifications of our being economically weak are enormous. And it’s frightening. For years I’ve listened to the Europeans and Brits bitch about the US. The one thing that never seems to have occurred to them is that someone else will take our place. Who would they prefer?

This is why the policies of this administration and Congress make me lose sleep – and weight. We have to replace most of the members of Congress, accept the pain reforms will demand and get this country healthy again.

Cody1991 on June 4, 2010 at 1:30 PM

Archimedes on June 4, 2010 at 1:22 PM

Oh, I get it. One of my posts disappeared. It was a response to wi farmgirl, and it explains that a Dem Congress and a marxist POTUS were my worst fears. It’s all come true, and it gets uglier every day.

Cody1991 on June 4, 2010 at 1:34 PM

Just think, a lot of this would have corrected itself by now…. Now the fall will be much worse.

reaganaut on June 4, 2010 at 1:28 PM

Friedman/Hayek monetary policy gives you the ’20-’21 rebound, (equivilent to crash of 29)sharp drop-6mo’s later unemp is down to 1%. Yep you read that right 1%!

Kenseyian/Obama policies give the 10-11yr Great Depression after ’29, and thats where we are heading.

We need to get off this crazy train before its too late, nobody slack off, we have to win in ’10 & ’12.

Archimedes on June 4, 2010 at 1:39 PM

I’m bad at math. Weren’t just 20,000 private jobs added, not 40,000?

JAW on June 4, 2010 at 1:44 PM

I have an idea to fix your confusion: Stop relying on WSJ articles and “relaese reprots” – and just use the monthly data , provided by the census department, a calculator and a pen and paper if needed.

I don’t believe the narrative which is why the raw numbers posted spell out the bs “new May numbers” from the previuos month.

Start there. Just look at month end April. Then May 22nd date. Then the so-called “411,000″ jobs.

The 440,000 is a result of 411,000 + the April loss 29,000, per the raw numbers.

It is a net cumulative number. Do you understand that?

Again, according to the WSJ, you are using the wrong TMCP numbers. The number at the end of the month is irrelevant. The monthly number is calculated by comparing the TMCP number for the second weekly period of the month, to the TMCP number for the second weekly period of the previous month. Do you understand that? If you are claiming the Wall Street Journal is wrong, then I’m sorry, but on such matters I’m going to consider the WSJ a more credible source than “Odie1941″.

Jon0815 on June 4, 2010 at 2:14 PM

Yes, while I acknowledge that this is a tragedy
for each and every sincere individual seeking employment,
I relish how the “doctored with faux Census *jobs* (cough!)”
May numbers are such a disaster for the Obama Administration.

“Damage Joy” (schadenfreude)!

Lockstein13 on June 4, 2010 at 2:18 PM

You have to come to grips with a simple fact, their intent is not to turn the economy around but to drive off a cliff. Obama’s goal is “social justice’ & “fairness”, if he has to bring everyone DOWN to make it “fair”, thats what he’ll do. He said so at the primary debate in answer to Charlie Gibson.

Go to 40 secs in…

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=__L5DOxghD4

Philosphically the reason is simple, imagine you have a race between Jesse Owens and Jackie Gleason. No regimen of diet, exercise or even steroids will get Jackie competitive with Jesse, so to acheive “social justice” the only thing you can do is impair Jesse. No way around it.

Harrison Bergeron anyone? :/

Theophile on June 4, 2010 at 2:57 PM

Dow is @ -330

Straw and the Camel?

Wolftech on June 4, 2010 at 2:59 PM

I’m bad at math. Weren’t just 20,000 private jobs added, not 40,000?

JAW on June 4, 2010 at 1:44 PM

An increase of 41,000 private-sector jobs, 411,000 temporary Census jobs, and 431,000 jobs in total means there was a net decrease of 21,000 jobs apart from the private-sector and the temp Census work. The BLS report says that government employment increased by 390,000 including the 411,000 temporary Census jobs, which explains this discrepancy.

DKCZ on June 4, 2010 at 3:16 PM

It appears as though the powers that be weren’t able to prop the markets up today. Let’s see what they do tomorrow. The last time we dipped below 10,000 the markets went up the very next day to get back above 10,000.

MobileVideoEngineer on June 4, 2010 at 3:57 PM

Oops, I meant Monday.

MobileVideoEngineer on June 4, 2010 at 3:58 PM

Harrison Bergeron anyone? :/

Theophile on June 4, 2010 at 2:57 PM

Hey, thanx for the tip, I’ve enjoyed Vonnegut in the past, but not read much of him, wasn’t familiar with that and now have another for my “to read” list.

Cheers!

Archimedes on June 4, 2010 at 4:15 PM

“We’re inherently in the world of the counterfactual, right?”

Heh, thats sounds like Fibbsy’s job description.

Archimedes on June 4, 2010 at 4:19 PM

It appears as though the powers that be weren’t able to prop the markets up today. Let’s see what they do tomorrow. The last time we dipped below 10,000 the markets went up the very next day to get back above 10,000.

MobileVideoEngineer on June 4, 2010 at 3:57 PM

If it does, it’ll mostly be people covering their “short” plays.

Archimedes on June 4, 2010 at 4:21 PM

It appears as though the powers that be weren’t able to prop the markets up today. Let’s see what they do tomorrow. The last time we dipped below 10,000 the markets went up the very next day to get back above 10,000.

MobileVideoEngineer on June 4, 2010 at 3:57 PM

If it does, it’ll mostly be people covering their “short” plays.

Archimedes on June 4, 2010 at 4:21 PM

I know you all mean Monday not tommorrow

unseen on June 4, 2010 at 4:29 PM

DOw down 323 pts at close blew past 10,000. 10,000 is now the ceiling not the floor. I see a retest of DOW 6,000 soon. the DOW is following the same pattern it did in the Great depression. By the end of the Great depression the DOw lost 90% of its vaule. the DOW started at 14,000 there is a long fall ahead.

unseen on June 4, 2010 at 4:34 PM

We’re falling into a double-dip recession.

Those former White House folks just don’t know when to shut up and let thme keep digging.

J_Crater on June 4, 2010 at 4:40 PM

If the SEIU hires 500 picketers and buses them to the homes of 5 Bank of America executives how many jobs did they create?

agmartin on June 4, 2010 at 4:50 PM

Black Friday we are in some major trouble. we are broke, we ar ein debt up to our eyeballs and the spending failed. Obama is increasing spending and we are headed into a deflationary event not seen since the great depression. All according to plan by the internationalists who believe it is the misbalance of wealth that causes war and envy. they want the USA’s standard of living to decrease while the rest of the world’s increase to meet in the middle somewhere. which in layman terms means massive economic pain for the USA

unseen on June 4, 2010 at 4:50 PM

No joke there, I just came back from a trip and found that my local grocer is now charging $6+ for a doz eggs. Discounting food from the COLA is insane, and only going to get worse as Bam-bam is still intent on pushing an energy bill(read: Crap & Tax). The price of food is inextricably tied to energy & fertilizer costs.

don’t forget about the down sizing of product, like there is no longer a gallon of ice cream, the price didn’t change but the amount of product you get did.

RonK on June 4, 2010 at 9:25 PM

These new unemployment numbers are completely fabricated and everyone knows it. Bozo can try to blame everyone else, but thats not working out too well for him.

Our current economic situation isn’t a double dip. The “improved” economic numbers put out by the government are also as fake as the global warming data.

We are in deep trouble. What’s especially frightening are the people who think things are actually getting better. They must be on some heavy meds.

dogsoldier on June 5, 2010 at 8:30 AM

LOts of NASA workers are packin it in too. Nothing to do. Literally sitting looking at the wall.

johnnyU on June 5, 2010 at 9:55 PM

Stuff like this always reminds me of some remarks by Frédéric Bastiat, writing in 1848. The man was an absolute prophet.

Thus, the public has several hopes, and the State makes two promises: many benefits and no taxes. Hopes and promises, which, being contradictory, can never be realized.

Now, is not this the cause of all our revolutions? For, between the State, which lavishes promises which it is impossible to keep, and the public, which has conceived hopes which can never be realized, two classes of men interpose: the ambitious and the utopians. It is circumstances which give them their cue. It is enough if these vassals of popularity cry out to the people: “The authorities are deceiving you; if we were in their place, we would load you with benefits and exempt you from taxes.”

And the people believe, and the people hope, and the people make a revolution!

No sooner are their friends at the head of affairs, than they are called upon to redeem their pledge. “Give us work, bread, assistance, credit, instruction, more money,” say the people; “and withal deliver us, as you promised, from the demands of the tax-gatherers.”

The new State power is no less embarrassed than the former one, for it soon finds that it is much more easy to promise than to perform. It tries to gain time, for this is necessary for maturing its vast projects. At first, it makes a few timid attempts. On one hand it institutes a little elementary instruction; on the other, it makes a little reduction in some taxes. But the contradiction is forever starting up before it; if it wants to be philanthropic, it must attend to its exchequer; if it neglects its exchequer, it must abstain from being philanthropic.

These two promises are for ever clashing with each other; it cannot be otherwise. To live upon credit, which is the same as exhausting the future, is certainly a present means of reconciling them; an attempt is made to do a little good now, at the expense of a great deal of harm in future. But such proceedings call forth the spectre of bankruptcy, which puts an end to credit. What is to be done then? The new State power takes, then, a bold step; it unites all its forces in order to maintain itself; it smothers opinion, has recourse to arbitrary measures, ridicules its former maxims, declares that it is impossible to conduct the administration except at the risk of being unpopular; in short, it proclaims itself governmental. And it is here that other candidates for popularity are waiting for it.
They exhibit the same illusion, pass by the same way, obtain the same success, and are soon swallowed up in the same gulf.

ddrintn on June 6, 2010 at 1:12 AM

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