Gallup: GOP takes six-point lead in generic Congressional ballot

posted at 10:12 am on June 2, 2010 by Ed Morrissey

If people thought the enthusiasm had leaked out of the Republican resurgence in midterm polling — people like Gallup, for instance — they need to think again.  And to Gallup’s credit, they have at least polled again, and found that the GOP has leaped to its largest lead in the generic Congressional ballot this year.  In fact, Republicans have opened a double-digit lead among independents in this survey of registered voters:

Gallup tracking of 2010 congressional voting preferences shows Republicans moving back ahead of Democrats, 49% to 43%, by two points their largest lead of the campaign to date. Registered voters’ preferences had been closely divided for the last several weeks.

These results are based on Gallup Daily tracking interviews conducted May 24-30. Republicans’ largest advantage on the generic ballot prior to now was four points during the week of April 5-11. The GOP held a three-point advantage the week of April 12-18. …

Two structural changes in the data help explain the shift. First, while the percentage of registered voters identifying as Republicans has been consistent over the past several weeks, during the last week there was a decline in the percentage of voters identifying as Democrats and an increase in independent identifiers.

The partisan gap has narrowed significantly in the last week, although this is probably an issue with sampling in the previous survey than a particular trend.  The May 23rd survey showed a 5-point gap between Democrats and Republicans, with independents 11 points back.  This week has the three in a virtual tie, with 33% of respondents identifying as Democrats and 32% each for Republicans and independents.  Partisan splits in surveys designed to accurately measure them rarely show independents so far behind the two major parties and usually put them at least in parity.

The change in the sample could account for the bump seen in the polling, but that doesn’t account for the change in independent preference.  At the beginning of May, independent voters leaned Republican by six points, 44/38.  Over the last four weeks, that advantage has grown to thirteen points, 47/34, even as the pool of independents has grown in the survey.  That’s a bad sign for Democrats heading into primary season in many states, and a welcome trend for Republicans.

As far as enthusiasm goes, the end of the ObamaCare debate did take the wind out of the sails of Republicans … but also Democrats and independents.  Republican voters still have a lead of 15 points on enthusiasm over Democrats (39/24), down from 54/35 at the beginning of April.  Independents edge Democrats on enthusiasm at 25%, down from a peak of 36% in March and mid-April.  The last three surveys on enthusiasm all have Democrats trailing independents on enthusiasm, and given the big lead Republicans have in that group, it’s yet another bad sign for Democrats in the midterms.


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I love the smell of November in the morning!

Laura in Maryland on June 2, 2010 at 10:16 AM

Laura, can you see it from your house too?

clnurnberg on June 2, 2010 at 10:17 AM


… during the last week there was a decline in the percentage of voters identifying as Democrats …

Somebody here on HotAir called it about a year when they said “Soon, none of your friends who voted for Obama will admit to it.”

Tony737 on June 2, 2010 at 10:18 AM

It will get worse for the Dems. The most important value to the voters this year will be frugality and the Dems have a lot of pork barrel spending they’ll have to defend.

PackerBronco on June 2, 2010 at 10:19 AM

And the spill keeps spilling.

John the Libertarian on June 2, 2010 at 10:19 AM

Don’t people know all the awful things the GOP is doing? Bush splitting up Al and Tipper, Cheney causing the Gulf Oil Spill, and Sarah Palin harassing poor Joe McGinniss, who was just minding his own business?

RBMN on June 2, 2010 at 10:19 AM

Laura, can you see it from your house too?

clnurnberg on June 2, 2010 at 10:17 AM

You betcha!

Laura in Maryland on June 2, 2010 at 10:21 AM

More proof the AZ law is hurting the GOP.

/

Oh and this:

ALBUQUERQUE — Republican Susana Martinez became the nation’s first Hispanic woman nominated for governor Tuesday night and will face Democrat Diane Denish in the general election to decide who becomes New Mexico’s first female governor.

….

What? You didn’t realize that?

That’s b/c she’s an R.

Otherwise, it would be 24/7 on every channel.

artist on June 2, 2010 at 10:26 AM

The Obamacare debate isn’t over, it’s just been put on temporary hold for the summer.

Bishop on June 2, 2010 at 10:27 AM

Every day only reinforces the demonrats are the most incompetent administration in our history. Obuma has surpassed Carter as being the most clueless president ever elected. The saddest part is the GOP is just barely better.

volsense on June 2, 2010 at 10:27 AM

As far as enthusiasm goes, the end of the ObamaCare debate did take the wind out of the sails of Republicans … but also Democrats and independents.

Translation…Americans are ready to vote AGAINST Democrats, but they are desperately waiting for a reason to vote FOR Republicans. And the GOP apparently is so afraid to actually STAND for anything that they have apparently abandoned the plan to introduce a new “Contract with America” for the 2010 election. Big mistake if its true.

American Elephant on June 2, 2010 at 10:31 AM

Polls are fickle….

albill on June 2, 2010 at 10:37 AM

This is beginning to take on the carachteristics of a perfect storm.

* Fibbs’ effort to quash the Sestak story with Bauer’s inconsistent report continues to unravel.

* The Denver Posts’s self-censorship about Romanoff being offfered a likewise deal to bow out ended this morning.

* While the Prez can really do nothing about the spill in the gulf, his blas’e response to Jindal become ever more apparent.

* The utter disaster of Team Obama’s foriegn policy revealing itself in every corner of the globe.

* And to cap it all off Blago’s trial is starting which is anticipated to last at least 4mo’s with a continueing saga of The Chicago Way splashed across headlines all the way through the elections.

If the White House thinks the heat in the kitchen is uncomfortable now, they haven’t seen anything yet.

Archimedes on June 2, 2010 at 10:38 AM

Suckers. The GOP is still a den of squishes.

faraway on June 2, 2010 at 10:38 AM

Time for another fantastic analysis from Katie Couric about how the Tea Party has hurt the GOP…..

….if these indicators continue on this path…..this generic lead will grow over the next few months:

Commodities’ Biggest Drop Since Lehman Seen as Bear Signal
By Millie Munshi and Elizabeth Campbell – Jun 1, 2010
http://preview.bloomberg.com/news/2010-05-31/commodities-biggest-collapse-since-lehman-fell-signals-bear-market-ahead.html

The Journal of Commerce Industrial Price Commodity Smoothed Price Index that tracks the growth rate of steel, cattle hides, tallow and burlap plunged 57 percent in May, two years after a decline that foreshadowed the worst recession in half a century. The index of 18 industrial materials declined the most since October 2008 as Europe’s debt crisis widened and China took steps to curb growth.


Now, “the collapse in the commodity index is telling us that the peak in global industrial growth is imminent, it’s here right now,” Achuthan said. “Markets are going to have to deal with the reality of a slowdown.”

…This is the time period that the democrats were depending on to trumpet their “we saved the economy” line and ride into the mid-terms triumphant.

…Foreclosures,higher unemployment,stagnate growth,unhinged financial market,corruption,ineptitude, and problems overseas are not spelling out “we saved the world” line that the Obama disciples promised us.

Having to get off the sidelines and actually accomplish something has exposed the democrats for the worthless,inept,political hacks that they truly are…

Baxter Greene on June 2, 2010 at 10:38 AM

Translation…Americans are ready to vote AGAINST Democrats, but they are desperately waiting for a reason to vote FOR Republicans.

American Elephant on June 2, 2010 at 10:31 AM

Right!!

…this is why Palin and NJ Gov. Christie get such an energetic and robust response from conservatives.

They stand for something and are not afraid to fight for it.
The GOP on the Hill should be taking notes.

Baxter Greene on June 2, 2010 at 10:42 AM

Cool, I’m trying hard not to be cynical and say that we’ll find a way to snatch defeat from the jaws of victory, but I’ve seen it too many times.

abobo on June 2, 2010 at 10:43 AM

Just a few short weeks ago there was an election in Britain pitting a putative ‘conservative’ against a much-loathed liberal-socialist who didn’t even have the legitimacy of being previously elected. The pollsters had predicted a Conservative victory. What Britain got was a Hung Parliament, an unstable government that will most like collapse within a year.

We’d all agree that “You can’t beat somthin’ with nothin’.” The lesson from Britain is that you don’t get very far trying to replace nothing (Gordon Brown) with nothing (David Cameron) either.

November is a long way off. Take nothing for granted.

potkas7 on June 2, 2010 at 10:43 AM

If the GOP wins, then what? Will they reverse the onward march toward Socialism? Will ObamaCare repeal stop this?

faraway on June 2, 2010 at 10:46 AM

The GOP is still a den of squishes.

faraway on June 2, 2010 at 10:38 AM

Yep.

I for one, know the difference between the GOP winning and fixing things.

Can they win, yes.

I’ll leave it at that.

artist on June 2, 2010 at 10:50 AM

Don’t people know all the awful things the GOP is doing? Bush splitting up Al and Tipper, Cheney causing the Gulf Oil Spill, and Sarah Palin harassing poor Joe McGinniss, who was just minding his own business?

RBMN on June 2, 2010 at 10:19 AM

The mind of a liberal is such a waste.

wi farmgirl on June 2, 2010 at 10:50 AM

If the GOP wins, then what? Will they reverse the onward march toward Socialism?

They don’t even have the balls to defund PBS/NPR.

artist on June 2, 2010 at 10:51 AM

* The Denver Posts’s self-censorship about Romanoff being offfered a likewise deal to bow out ended this morning.

If the White House thinks the heat in the kitchen is uncomfortable now, they haven’t seen anything yet.

Archimedes on June 2, 2010 at 10:38 AM

If the GOP regains House majority, do they then have the authority to request an FBI investigation of the Sestak and Romanoff issues? Lying to the public is one thing; lying to the FBI is another.

a capella on June 2, 2010 at 11:09 AM

If the GOP wins, then what? Will they reverse the onward march toward Socialism?

They don’t even have the balls to defund PBS/NPR.

artist on June 2, 2010 at 10:51 AM

How do you know they won’t defund PBS/NPR when they regain control of Congress?
Many GOP candidates, if not most, have pledged to reverse the onward march towards Socialism as the main plank of their election platforms.

I can tell you this for free–and I’m no fortune teller–if the Democrats win again, you can bet the farm they will NOT reverse their own onward march towards Socialism!

Jenfidel on June 2, 2010 at 11:31 AM

Its not a question of Republicans defunding Obamacare.

It is a question of having any funds around to do anything with.

They can either choose to be ‘moderate’ spenders, in other words functional Democrats, and continue spending the country into oblivion or make a case that the necessity of austerity is a virtue… hand out one page budgets on what gets funded at, say, 2007 levels, what gets missed (what did you mean they forgot to fund the Dept. of Agriculture?) and what goes into the ‘well voters if you really want this lovely entitlement, fork over half your cash and assets for it for this year and we will come back for the rest next year’ bin.

If they can figure out that just saying how much something costs and how much it costs you, and your children and grandchildren, then cut to the bone austerity with tax cuts will be seen as a virtue.

Republicans have had a damned hard time being virtuous.

I don’t expect either party to survive as coherent entitites until 2012. The Democrats are already breaking up and the Republicans are on the rocks. Soon austerity no longer becomes a choice… or your future liberty and freedom will be sold out completely by the elites in which case the next Constitutional Convention is not far away. I am no longer afraid of that option as governments are created amongst men and when they stop trying to govern then our absolute rights rule. And those pushing for universal poverty for all I expect will not be getting seats at the table…

ajacksonian on June 2, 2010 at 11:38 AM

I’ve read where the Dems plan to fire up their base by warning them that if the Republicans get control, they’ll repeal ObamaCare.

Oh, please make the repeal of ObamaCare a national issue for November!

LarryD on June 2, 2010 at 11:45 AM

The ObamaCare debate will get new life right before midterms in the form of the confirmation hearings of Sir Donald Berwick. Pass the popcorn!

http://www.politico.com/news/stories/0510/37990_Page3.html

parteagirl on June 2, 2010 at 11:46 AM

your future liberty and freedom will be sold out completely by the elites in which case the next Constitutional Convention is not far away. I am no longer afraid of that option as governments are created amongst men and when they stop trying to govern then our absolute rights rule. And those pushing for universal poverty for all I expect will not be getting seats at the table…

ajacksonian on June 2, 2010 at 11:38 AM

I both want and don’t want a Constitutional Convention: if the wrong people get a majority in such a convention, the nation could possibly put itself in even more trouble.
But if the right, right-minded patriots take control of it, we could emerge a much stronger, better republic.
Time will tell.

Jenfidel on June 2, 2010 at 11:47 AM

My guess is that Obama and the Democrats will twist in the wind all summer long.

molonlabe28 on June 2, 2010 at 11:48 AM

Hey! If healthcare got the Democrats this far, then they will be in double digit land with something like cap’n’tax or comprehensive payoff reform or a big old hole in the Gulf that the President is responsible for and runs away from… yes sir, double digits very soon.

Not for Democrats, but they sure are helping the Republicans along!

ajacksonian on June 2, 2010 at 1:29 PM

If the GOP regains House majority, do they then have the authority to request an FBI investigation of the Sestak and Romanoff issues? Lying to the public is one thing; lying to the FBI is another.

a capella on June 2, 2010 at 11:09 AM

If they retake the house they gain the power to subpoaena(?) to appear before a congressional committe. Anything said is under oath and subject to penalties of perjury. Better than a FBI inquiry, but yeah they can do that too.

Archimedes on June 2, 2010 at 1:41 PM

Gallup: GOP takes six-point lead in generic Congressional ballot

Ripley: “These people are here to protect you. They’re soldiers.”

Newt: “It won’t make any difference.”

Dr. ZhivBlago on June 2, 2010 at 11:24 PM

Having to get off the sidelines and actually accomplish something has exposed the democrats for the worthless,inept,political hacks that they truly are…

Baxter Greene on June 2, 2010 at 10:38 AM

How about the idea that lefty programs put The One where He is and the oil well where it is.

IlikedAUH2O on June 3, 2010 at 6:03 AM