Q-poll puts Blumenthal up big over McMahon

posted at 1:36 pm on May 27, 2010 by Ed Morrissey

Richard Blumenthal appears to have dodged a bullet in Connecticut after, er, not dodging bullets in Vietnam as he repeatedly implied until being exposed by the New York Times.  After an initial poll by Rasmussen taken the day after the scandal broke found Blumenthal in a virtual dead heat for the US Senate seat with Linda McMahon, a Quinnipiac poll taken this week has Blumenthal reacquiring his previous commanding lead in the race:

Connecticut Attorney General Richard Blumenthal leads former wrestling executive Linda McMahon 56 – 31 percent in the U.S. Senate race and tops the Republican candidate by large margins on every character measure, according to a Quinnipiac University poll released today.

This compares to a 61 – 28 percent Blumenthal lead over McMahon in a March 17 survey by the independent Quinnipiac (KWIN-uh-pe-ack) University.

McMahon leads the Republican primary for U.S. Senate with 49 percent, followed by former U.S. Rep. Rob Simmons with 23 percent and businessman Peter Schiff with 11 percent, with 15 percent undecided. Simmons announced after one night of the survey that he was suspending his campaign, but that his name would remain on the GOP primary ballot.

What happened, wonders Steve McGough at Radio Vice Online?

Hold on here a second. Will someone in the media please take a look at the polling methodology between the Quinnipiac and Rasmussen polls concerning the US Senate race in Connecticut? Why are the results so different? …

I don’t have the time to get into all of the details, and I don’t have the crosstabs for the Rassmussen poll, but instead of just touting the hey-look-McMahon-is-in-a-freefall story, can someone in the media explain the difference and why/how this happened?

There are some differences between methodologies between the two pollsters.  As noted, Rasmussen polls likely voters, while the Q-poll surveys registered voters.  That difference could mean a few points difference in Blumenthal’s favor, but isn’t going to explain the big shift between the two data points.

There are a couple of reasons why Blumenthal rebounded.  First, just before the Quinnipiac polling began, Blumenthal finally apologized (more or less) for his dishonesty in an e-mail to the Hartford Courant.   Had he done so a week earlier, the Rasmussen poll would have looked much different.  The apology defused the news value of the scandal, even if it still left the aftertaste of dishonesty in voters’ mouths.

But even without an apology, the Rasmussen internals indicated that Blumenthal would recover from this episode.  His favorable rating was 66/32 even in the immediate wake of his exposure, including majorities of both men and women and in every age demographic.  Even 45% of Republicans gave him favorable marks, as did 55% of independents.  All they needed was a reasonable explanation from Blumenthal to forgive him, and anyone looking at those internals knew this would happen eventually, if not immediately.

The Q-poll found very similar numbers on Blumenthal’s favorability, 61/29, in this latest survey.  McMahon, however, scored much worse between the two polls.  In Rasmussen, she had a respectable 54/42, but in the Q-poll, she scored 32/39 — a worrisome number just after the Republican convention win, which should have given her a boost.  It could be that as the voters forgive Blumenthal, McMahon (whose campaign took credit for the exposure) will experience a backlash.


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Damn Yankees

lm10001 on May 27, 2010 at 1:37 PM

liberal in connecticut, doesn’t take anymore than that to get elected

Kelligan on May 27, 2010 at 1:38 PM

Peter Schiff FTW.

ebrawer on May 27, 2010 at 1:39 PM

Liberals love liars.

Inanemergencydial on May 27, 2010 at 1:39 PM

Forgiven?

Democrats never considered his lying about military service a problem to begin with.

Why do you need to forgive what’s not a crime and obviously a faux news lie?

Skywise on May 27, 2010 at 1:43 PM

Connecticut folks are too sophistcated for a rasslin promoter . A disgraced lying POS is just fine .

borntoraisehogs on May 27, 2010 at 1:43 PM

Can we please give Massachusetts and Connecticut back to England?

fogw on May 27, 2010 at 1:43 PM

I guess you could murder your grandmother in Conn.and still get elected if you are a Democrat.Speaks well for the people of that state.

docflash on May 27, 2010 at 1:44 PM

Great society we have, punish the whistleblower.

WashJeff on May 27, 2010 at 1:44 PM

…..In other news, ignorance in Connecticut is on the rise….

HornetSting on May 27, 2010 at 1:44 PM

See, I would consider such a broadly perpetrated and tasteless lie such as that a reflection of his character. I don’t understand how an apology could repair that damage.

Heralder on May 27, 2010 at 1:45 PM

I am glad the people of Connecticut have such high standards for themselves.

texriot on May 27, 2010 at 1:45 PM

Not just democrats, but apparently Connecticut veterans are ok with him trading on the valor of those who fought and died in Vietnam, for his own personal gain.

I guess if you’ve stomached the Dodds for so long, another lying scumbag doesn’t make much difference.

Any word from the Harvard swim team on an endorsement?

TugboatPhil on May 27, 2010 at 1:46 PM

Capt Forgiven-b/c-he’s-a-Dem will get along well in the Dem Senate caucus if he wins – “Combat Mission” Harkin is still around, and even Robert “I was in the KKK but never mind that since I’m a Democrat” Byrd is hanging on. Too bad Teddy “Vehicular Manslaughter, and I’m being generous about the categorization” Kennedy isn’t around to welcome him.

Wineaholic on May 27, 2010 at 1:47 PM

We got the government we deserved in the 18th century and we will get the government we deserve in the 21st century.

WashJeff on May 27, 2010 at 1:48 PM

Liberals do not like being correct, therefore Rasmussen (the most accurate pollster) is to be disparaged.

jukin on May 27, 2010 at 1:49 PM

So glad my mother just moved out of that miserable state.

rrpjr on May 27, 2010 at 1:49 PM

I mean, he’s looking to succeed Dodd (a beacon of the truth himself)…what did anyone expect?

search4truth on May 27, 2010 at 1:51 PM

I opined that Blumenthal would not only survive, but that he would thrive, especially in a blue-blue state like CT. Looks like I was correct. Darn it.

Physics Geek on May 27, 2010 at 1:52 PM

Well, he certainly does have the ethical standards to be a top Democrat leader…

Fuzzlenutter on May 27, 2010 at 1:52 PM

The truth to liberals is not what is based on facts, but what they actually want it to be. That is why liberals cannot do anything substantively, but they “think” they can. Everything that a liberal thinks cannot come fruition because it’s mere existence to them is imagined and not reality. Without conservatives, liberals couldn’t even feed themselves.

volsense on May 27, 2010 at 1:53 PM

Ed: thanks for explaining the differences in the polls. I wouldn’t worry: CT might’ve been taken away from us. But it looks like WA and WI will be very competetive, as per recent polls. And with Fiorina in CA, things are looking like a takeover is plausible.

TimTebowSavesAmerica on May 27, 2010 at 1:53 PM

Sayeth El Rushbo: For a Democrat, lying is a resume’ enhancement.

petefrt on May 27, 2010 at 1:57 PM

Wish y’all would stop with the Connecticut-bashing. We’re not all liberal Democrat lemmings. There’s really two Connecticuts….Fairfield County (where I live), and the rest of the state. My county is the affluent one, mostly under GOP control, or more centrist Dems. The rest of the state is solid Blue no matter who the candidate is.

McMahon doesn’t really spark excitement here. And as always, Blumenthal has that name recognition. The larger cities…Hartford, New Haven, Stamford, et al are forever Democrat-controlled, GOPers never get elected to high posts.

So it’s almost a done deal, we’ll get Blumie as our guy in the senate. Besides, this state doesn’t have a great track record of fielding awesome candidates. No one for years has ignited political passion.

JetBoy on May 27, 2010 at 1:58 PM

I don’t think Republicans should spend a dime in the state. What is wrong with these people, if you will lie about this, what won’t you lie about.

Cindy Munford on May 27, 2010 at 1:58 PM

Maybe the polls are different because no one took McMahon seriously as a candidate before and were indifferent? Now that she is the candidate they are no longer indifferent.
McMahon is not and never was a viable candidate for high office…or even low office for that matter.

Rocks on May 27, 2010 at 1:59 PM

She’s receiving backlash…for exposing this dude as a lying scumbag? What am I missing?

CT deserves a man like that.

changer1701 on May 27, 2010 at 2:04 PM

Leftists haven’t met a lying b@stard they don’t like yet. That’s their favorite kind. Remember John Kerry? They love Leftists who lie about the military. The worse the lie the better.

Sultry Beauty on May 27, 2010 at 2:08 PM

Either a vast majority in Conn, are liberals, and living off the tax payers dimes, thereby, won’t bite the hand that will eventually keep feeding them, or they can’t fathom the massive taxes coming our way.

They’ll elect this lying tool, then gripe and whine the loudest, when the bill comes due. Idiots!

capejasmine on May 27, 2010 at 2:08 PM

“Forgiven?”

Evidently, those voters just don’t care. No need to “forgive” what didn’t matter in the first place.

We’ll see in the general election whether everyone in that district is so moronic.

maverick muse on May 27, 2010 at 2:08 PM

… next up..
“Blumenthal rapes intern’s male dog. Approval ratings spike!”

lm10001 on May 27, 2010 at 2:10 PM

If he lied so easily over this… there are many other lies for us to find.

stenwin77 on May 27, 2010 at 2:12 PM

The only reason I sort of supported McMahon is that I thought she had a chance to win… if we’re going to lose anyway might as well lose with Schiff…

ninjapirate on May 27, 2010 at 2:12 PM

If so, they’ll get what they deserve, an unforgiving liar.

rjoco1 on May 27, 2010 at 2:14 PM

Looks like the only way for a Dem to lose in a true blue state like CT is the old “dead girl or live boy in bed” routine. And the latter is probably no longer a negative.

jwolf on May 27, 2010 at 2:15 PM

Boycott Connecticut!!

Come visit Connecticut, a state where Walter Mitty considered a piker…

Shivas Irons on May 27, 2010 at 2:17 PM

I dont get why they didnt pick Simmons, he couldve rolled over Blumenthal from now til November.

ginaswo on May 27, 2010 at 2:20 PM

These big time liberal fools deserve this jerk.When their state is broke and they have no jobs then i don,t want to hear one word of complaints coming out of this strong hold of liberalism.

thmcbb on May 27, 2010 at 2:20 PM

/Eastern voter mode on

What’s a little lying, competence, or integrity, when sugar daddy is going to send the check if elected.

/Eastern voter mode off

MNHawk on May 27, 2010 at 2:30 PM

… next up..
“Blumenthal rapes intern’s male dog. Approval ratings spike!”

lm10001 on May 27, 2010 at 2:10 PM

Well, why not. As Clinton’s actions went from adultry, to unwanted groping, to exposure, to accused rape, his ratings among women did nothing but rise.

Almost as if Democrat women ask for it.

MNHawk on May 27, 2010 at 2:32 PM

There is something so wrong and thus so different between the states now, that I don’t think it can be brought back together.

It amazes me to think that I wouldn’t be sad to see Texas and a few other states leave this mess and start their own country.

I never thought I would ever see that not only as a possiblity, but as maybe being a good thing.

TiminPhx on May 27, 2010 at 2:46 PM

It’s a long time until November, and he’s got nowhere to go but down.

Forget about Rahm’s best bud and the NYT approved McMahon.

Flood Tea Party endorsed Peter Schiff with your donations if you don’t want Bliementhal or another Maine sister in the Senate.

Rae on May 27, 2010 at 2:47 PM

I think a strong Republican without the baggage Linda carries could overtake Blumenthal in a heartbeat.

SnarkVader on May 27, 2010 at 2:49 PM

This is actually quite simple.

The Quinnipiac University poll is designed to present the image to voters in Connecticut that it is OK to accept the clearly lying Blumenthal.

If this poll fails to change minds, and with no election for months, Quinnipiac can simply produce different polls between now and then if their effort to change public position fails.

NEVER underestimate the corruption of political pollsters!

Freddy on May 27, 2010 at 2:58 PM

This is the CT version of Obama vs McCain. The GOP has the worst possible candidate running. She’s possibly sleazier than the guy that lied about serving in Vietnam.

kvader on May 27, 2010 at 3:11 PM

meh. Quinnipiac. Not worth a damn. The only thing they ever get right is … well, I tried. Nothing comes to mind.

Tennman on May 27, 2010 at 3:21 PM

Just put a (D) after anybody’s name and he/she/it can be the next senator from the great state of Connecticut.
Are the people of CT that shameless??? If I see a Senator Charles Manson (D-CT), I say…FORCED SECESSION.

Dan Pet on May 27, 2010 at 3:22 PM

Meanwhile, Blumenthal still lied. As for the Republicans there nominating McMahon? Shtoo-pid.

Ward Cleaver on May 27, 2010 at 3:24 PM

Wish y’all would stop with the Connecticut-bashing. We’re not all liberal Democrat lemmings. There’s really two Connecticuts….Fairfield County (where I live), and the rest of the state. My county is the affluent one, mostly under GOP control, or more centrist Dems. The rest of the state is solid Blue no matter who the candidate is.

Actually, CT had 3 Republican Reps out of 5 back in 2006, with Chris Shays representing Fairfield County, Nancy Johnson representing the affluent suburbs west of Hartford and Litchfield County in the northwest, and Rob Simmons representing mostly-rural Eastern Connecticut.

There are areas of “urban blight” in Hartford, Bridgeport, Stamford, New Haven, and Waterbury, and those who live there vote heavily Democrat.

Connecticut has one of the highest average per-capita incomes in the country, which normally tends to favor conservatives. But the affluent areas of Connecticut (like Massachusetts) have been heavily influenced by the Catholic Church, which normally preaches “charity to the poor” and “peace”, and many affluent voters interpret “charity” to mean “government welfare”, and “peace” to mean pacifism and opposition to any military action, so many Catholic voters are willing to given Blumenthal a pass on lying about his military service.

Steve Z on May 27, 2010 at 3:26 PM

If Democrats could vote for John Kerry, they will vote for anyone. How picky can they be?

Terrye on May 27, 2010 at 3:35 PM

Q Poll also has BO over 50% and other strange numbers. I will rely upon Rasmussen.

Jdripper on May 27, 2010 at 3:50 PM

Not sure about this being CT’s Obama/McCain. McMahon is more like our Schwarzenegger.

Durham68 on May 27, 2010 at 3:57 PM

The local Repubs picked the wrong horse. Still believe Simmons would have stood a better chance than McMahon. The NRSC needs to do some heavy lifting in these “blue” states where Repubs mean Dem-lite.

Bob in VA on May 27, 2010 at 3:58 PM

Hard to imagine why this dirtbag get high approval numbers from anyone. He’s a serial fabulist, and that doesn’t only apply to his manufactured Vietnam career.

Jaibones on May 27, 2010 at 4:05 PM

The fix is in!

christene on May 27, 2010 at 4:25 PM

Unbelievable how much Northeasterners love their liberals. I could never live there.

BillCarson on May 27, 2010 at 4:32 PM

How can I criticize Connecticut’s voters when my state couldn’t keep Franken from the levers of power governing the country and voted enthusiastically for the Obamanation.

chickasaw42 on May 27, 2010 at 6:02 PM

Never underestimate the stupidity of the people of Connecticut. I have watched this state deteriorate severely over the last several decades. It used to be a proud state, but now the dimbulbs here do not understand that Blumenthal is merely Dodd lite. He will be another Obama sock puppet and vote in lockstep with the One. He will carry on the destructive legacy of Chris Dodd.

The population here doesn’t give a freaking damn. Just keep those welfare checks coming, keep suing businesses and driving them out of the state and they’ll keep voting for Democrats.

drjohn on May 27, 2010 at 6:07 PM

CT after all has spent all these years with Dodd, Blumenthal will not bother them. And, I’m willing to bet that anything to do with war, truthful or otherwise, is irrelevant to them on most levels.

jeanie on May 27, 2010 at 6:25 PM