Obama approval rating drops to 47% in CBS poll

posted at 9:30 am on May 26, 2010 by Ed Morrissey

A month ago, I noted that Gallup showed the gap in party identification among American voters had narrowed to a single point, following a March Rasmussen poll that showed the same gap between Democrats and Republicans.  At the time, I wondered whether media pollsters like CBS would change their sampling and weighting techniques to reflect the actual partisan split.  In at least CBS’ case, we have an answer — not that it did Barack Obama much good, as his post-ObamaCare bump disappeared:

Americans are split, essentially along party lines, on whether and what kind of change Mr. Obama has brought to the country. Thirty-eight percent overall say he has made the country better, while 32 percent say he has made it worse. Twenty-four percent say he has not brought change.

Forty-eight percent trust the president to make the right decisions for the country. Forty-nine percent do not.

Mr. Obama’s overall approval rating is 47 percent. Forty-three percent disapprove of his job performance. That’s a drop from his recent high of 51 percent, though it still bests his recent low of 44 percent.

The president receives the best marks on the issues of terrorism and Afghanistan and the lowest marks on the economy and health care.

Let’s look at the sample before checking the issue ratings.  The initial sample actually looked close to rational, with just a two-point gap between Democrats and Republicans, although independents are overrepresented.  The problem comes when CBS weights the poll to adjust the sample:

Party Aff Unweighted Upct Weighted Wpct
Republicans 308 29.2% 272 25.8%
Democrats 327 31.0% 324 30.7%
Independents 419 39.8% 458 43.5%
Party Aff Unweighted Upct Weighted Wpct
Republicans 308 29.2% 272 25.8%
Democrats 327 31.0% 324 30.7%
Independents 419 39.8% 458 43.5%

In weighting the sample, CBS actually increases the oversampling of independents while removing almost four points from Republicans in the sample.

But this does little to boost Obama’s standing in approval rating.  He slipped by four points over the last month and is just barely ahead of his disapproval.  On the issues, he only gets to 50% once, on terrorism.  His worst two issues are the biggest two for the midterms: the economy (43%) and jobs (42%).  Obamanomics gets a big shrug; 13% say they have been personally helped by Obama’s economic policies, 18% say they’ve been personally hurt, and 68% say his efforts have had no impact on their lives.  That latter number is actually higher among Democrats and independents (71%).

The overall perception of the economy remains poor.  Only 20% believe the current economy to be good, while 79% say it’s bad.  That’s a drop from last month’s 23/77, and not that much of an improvement from six months ago, when the numbers were 19/79.   Americans aren’t optimistic about the future, either; 30% believe the economy to be improving while 28% say it’s getting worse and 42% think it’s staying the same.  Last month, those numbers were 41/15/43.

Perhaps even worse, voters have lost confidence in Obama’s ability to relate to their priorities.  In October, 58% of respondents said Obama shared their priorities, but now only 45% do — less than the 47% who say he doesn’t.  Echoing this is the right direction/wrong direction polling, which has returned to pre-Obama levels.  This usually operates in negative territory, but a year ago came close to even at 45/48, a dramatic turnaround from the beginning of Obama’s term, when it was 23/68.  It’s now 32/61, sliding from 34/59 last month.

Even with the strange “weighting” in this poll, it’s bad news all around for the Obama administration.


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Charm and sopistry take you only so far.

RobCon on May 26, 2010 at 9:33 AM

The president receives the best marks on the issues of terrorism and Afghanistan

Who are these morons that think he’s doing a good job? How is he not in the 20′s? The evil Boosh would have been in single digits if he were in this position.

search4truth on May 26, 2010 at 9:34 AM

How long before Obama *tells* CBS to stop polling?

artist on May 26, 2010 at 9:34 AM

Once he hits the 30′s on any poll, I’ll exhale.

sherry on May 26, 2010 at 9:36 AM

He is still zero to me.

tim c on May 26, 2010 at 9:37 AM

Who are these morons that think he’s doing a good job? How is he not in the 20’s? The evil Boosh would have been in single digits if he were in this position.

search4truth on May 26, 2010 at 9:34 AM

Because he’s gotten very lucky. The two most recent terrorist attacks failed thanks to incompetence on the part of the perpetrators. If there’s a successful one however(especially if it’s a major attack), you’ll see those numbers plummet.

Doughboy on May 26, 2010 at 9:39 AM

How long before Obama *tells* CBS to stop polling?

artist on May 26, 2010 at 9:34 AM

How long before Obama *tells* CBS to stop polling, its a distraction?

FIFY!

belad on May 26, 2010 at 9:39 AM

CBS is racist

strictnein on May 26, 2010 at 9:42 AM

If the media was anywhere close to honest, he would be at 25% tops.

cntrlfrk on May 26, 2010 at 9:43 AM

-22 on Rasmussen. Another “new low” for The Won.

Key West Reader on May 26, 2010 at 9:44 AM

“Some liberals has complained about polls showing negative numbers for Obama, so we stopped” Tapper.

the_nile on May 26, 2010 at 9:44 AM

Barry has also hit a new low in Rasmussen’s approval index, -22.

Pablo on May 26, 2010 at 9:44 AM

Rasmussen’s 42% is probably closer to reality.

Red Cloud on May 26, 2010 at 9:45 AM

This just in. Jake Tapper banning Obama Approval Rating from his blog.

Caper29 on May 26, 2010 at 9:48 AM

The only thing noteworthy about this poll is that even a poll conducted by a Progressive network shows Obama sinking into oblivion. CBS wears the uniform of the enemy!

Keemo on May 26, 2010 at 9:48 AM

who will they blame if we get slapped by the religion of peace this summer — and we find out they came thru the Mexican border…..

wheels on May 26, 2010 at 9:49 AM

-22 on Rasmussen

http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/obama_administration/daily_presidential_tracking_poll

He’s losing his base with the oil spill.

UnderstandingisPower on May 26, 2010 at 9:49 AM

If they wanted an accurate assessment maybe they should stop polling people only in the Northeast and DC. This just goes to show how they skew the polls to get the result they want. Worthless.

Sporty1946 on May 26, 2010 at 9:52 AM

‘Plug the da*n hole”

TheVer on May 26, 2010 at 9:53 AM

Take any of these polls except Rasmussen then subtract 6% to 7% from it and then you will have the true numbers.

thmcbb on May 26, 2010 at 9:56 AM

‘Plug the da*n hole”

TheVer

Is that you, Larry Sinclair?

honsy on May 26, 2010 at 9:57 AM

Man Caused Disaster.

Bishop on May 26, 2010 at 9:59 AM

What relevance to the truth does CBS possibly have? Only the New York Times could lay claim to being more corrupt of the mainstream media when the truth is a consideration.

volsense on May 26, 2010 at 10:00 AM

We need another czar to head up the deck chair re-arrangement committee.

(Captain Obama to his passengers: “if you’re not planning on getting off, could you please move to the lower end of the ship”)

Rovin on May 26, 2010 at 10:01 AM

TheVer on May 26, 2010 at 9:53 AM

Beat me to it. Well played.

PappaMac on May 26, 2010 at 10:04 AM

If this isa CBS poll…then take off another 10 pts…..yeah, that would be about right….

Dick Turpin on May 26, 2010 at 10:05 AM

The president receives the best marks on the issues of terrorism and Afghanistan

Huhwhahuh??

Afghanistan is sinking deeper and deeper, and we’ve had multiple terror attack attempts (one successful). I guess if you stop calling it “terrorism” you get high marks for it.

crazy_legs on May 26, 2010 at 10:20 AM

Most people really understand statistics very well.

Even if CBS did “accurately” weight the groups, that would only fix a RANDOM sampling error. But this isn’t random. If every group CBS picks has more Democrats than average, that’s because of something called systemic bias.

In other words, ALL the subgroups that CBS polls will tend to be more liberal than average. That means that the Democrats in their sample will tend to be more liberal than average Democrats; and the Republicans and Independants will tend to be more liberal than a truly random sample of Republicans and Independants would be.

logis on May 26, 2010 at 10:23 AM

Afghanistan is sinking deeper and deeper, and we’ve had multiple terror attack attempts (one successful). I guess if you stop calling it “terrorism” you get high marks for it.

crazy_legs on May 26, 2010 at 10:20 AM

No. It’s when the MSM stops reporting the body count and how it’s all going downhill into a quagmire and there’s no way out and we’ve lost, THEN people start realizing he shouldn’t get very high marks here either.

UnderstandingisPower on May 26, 2010 at 10:25 AM

Too funny. If the kneepads suckophants at CBS find O’Bozo with a new low, it is low indeed.

Jaibones on May 26, 2010 at 10:26 AM

crazy_legs on May 26, 2010 at 10:20 AM

It’s not that hard to believe… I mean which issue would you give Obama the best marks in? He sucks on the economy, jobs, health care, etc., etc. He’s at least adequate so far in the war in Afghanistan.

It might not be much, but for Obama: adequate is exceptional.

Abby Adams on May 26, 2010 at 10:27 AM

Abby Adams on May 26, 2010 at 10:27 AM

Stupid formatting. You suck, Abby Adams.

Abby Adams on May 26, 2010 at 10:28 AM

Take the 100% positives from the 12% of blacks in this country and that makes it…35%

LtE126 on May 26, 2010 at 10:28 AM

The poll is bogus … But with all the handouts what did you expect.

tarpon on May 26, 2010 at 10:37 AM

CBS………HMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMM………-10 that means 37%

lilium on May 26, 2010 at 10:41 AM

Only 20% believe the current economy to be good

And in an unrelated story, 20% of Americans have no idea of what the words economy or good mean.

angryed on May 26, 2010 at 10:45 AM

Just imagine if that bomb had exploded in Times Square. The Dow would be at about 6000 and New York City would be a ghost town.

rockmom on May 26, 2010 at 10:48 AM

Obama will always have close to 100% of Black support which is 12% of the population. About 15% of the population is so far left they will support him no matter what. That’s 27%.

Then you have the easily duped by the media crowd who is apolitical but believes whatever Katie Kouric says. I’d say that’s 10%

So 37% or thereabout is his floor. Ras has him at 42% which means he is almost as low as he is going to get.

angryed on May 26, 2010 at 10:50 AM

Who are these morons that think he’s doing a good job?

search4truth on May 26, 2010 at 9:34 AM

Some of them post here at HA. You’ll find them on the Sarah Palin threads.

Del Dolemonte on May 26, 2010 at 10:56 AM

Just wonder how our thin skinned POTUS will cope when he drops below 40%.The man always seems full of anger .

Sandybourne on May 26, 2010 at 11:01 AM

Forty-three percent disapprove of his job performance.

I’m surprised they even printed that. After all, isn’t the MFM motto “If we don’t report it, it didn’t happen!”?

GarandFan on May 26, 2010 at 11:07 AM

B+ D-

Kafir on May 26, 2010 at 11:47 AM

Open worship season is over, they must hide in their prayer closets.

Osis on May 26, 2010 at 11:48 AM

Who knew only 18% of Americans were satisfied smokers? Surprising.

ButterflyDragon on May 26, 2010 at 12:23 PM

..The Pantload had a 42% approval from Rassmussen — his lowest ever — and followet it up today by being upside down by -22% favorable versus unfavorable.

At the moment, he is staring down his own Katrina — finally getting to the site for a second photo-op session after taking two vacations, doing a fundraiser for “Box of Rocks” Boxer and boogeying in the White House while BP oil oozes into the Gulf — and (AND!) trying to paper over his own nascent Watergate affair with the Sestak job offer.

If this stuff is handled by the MSM (becoming increasingly hostile to his lack of press conferences) and the blogosphere, he could be staring at the yawning thirties for approval by the time November rolls around.

Coat tails? Hell, he won’t even have a soiled set of undies to wear.

The War Planner on May 26, 2010 at 12:36 PM

“Obama will always have close to 100% of Black support which is 12% of the population. About 15% of the population is so far left they will support him no matter what. That’s 27%.”

..yea, but the left can and has turned on him. That’s what’s up with the variance in the Raz “strongly approve” numbers.

Bet if it is a huge wipe-out in November and the MS sees that his incompetency is taking their beloved liberal Democrat party down with him, then the long knives come out and the hit pieces start. If the editors see a concomitant rise in circulation, then they may go with more and more of this genre.

When Hillary decides she wants to challenge him in the primaries, expect a huge flock of chickens coming home to roost.

HillBuzz alone will ramp up a lot of the old Puma anger.

Buy the popcorn and beer and get set for a rich two years, 2011-2012.

The War Planner on May 26, 2010 at 12:44 PM

Hmmmm.

No idea if this has come up before but on DrudgeReport.com there is a link to the NYPost about Census workers accusing the US Census of manipulating the monthly job creation numbers.

Ny Post

memomachine on May 26, 2010 at 1:12 PM

It will be interesting to see how much time CBS gives to its own poll. During the Bush Administration every time the president’s number hit a new low that was all the MSM could talk about for days or even weeks. I’d be willing to bet its not even going to be the led item tonight.

Fred 2 on May 26, 2010 at 1:46 PM

In at least CBS’ case, we have an answer — not that it did Barack Obama much good, as his post-ObamaCare bump disappeared:

those are the only “bumps” that Obamacare is guaranteed to cure…

ted c on May 26, 2010 at 2:57 PM

Let’s see:

Deduct 3 points because it’s a CBS poll about a Democrat.
Deduct 2 points because they’ve skewed the sample.
Deduct 2 points because the Editors decided that although the poll results were faked, they were accurate.

So I come up with 40% approve of Obama’s Presidency +/- 2, that’s about right.

jcw46 on May 26, 2010 at 7:25 PM