North Korea severs ties, communications with South

posted at 11:36 am on May 25, 2010 by Ed Morrissey

The diplomatic situation on the Korean peninsula continues to deteriorate, although for now not the military situation.  In retaliation for Seoul cutting off aid to Pyongyang after the sinking of its naval vessel two months ago, North Korea has declared that it will cut all ties with the South, including communications.  It will also expel South Korean workers from a joint project intended to bring closer economic ties:

North Korea is to cut all relations with South Korea, Pyongyang’s official news agency reports.

KCNA said the North was also expelling all South Korean workers from a jointly-run factory north of the border. …

Seoul announced on Sunday it was ending trade relations with the North in response to the sinking.

Tuesday’s KCNA reports announcing the severing of all ties – including communications – said the North was also banning South Korean ships and planes from its waters and airspace.

At least for now, the aggressive response remains restricted to diplomatic and economic actions.  Despite earlier reports that Pyongyang had mobilized its military, NBC reports that their military posture hasn’t changed at all:

There is no unusual activity by North Korean troops in light of the tensions between the country and South Korea, and northern troops are not on high alert, according to NBC news.

Pentagon sources have told NBC that there is no mass movement of troops along the border between North and South Korea after the South banned trade with the North. South Korea announced the ban Monday after saying the North was responsible for the sinking of a South Korean ship in March, killing 50 sailors. …

Most analysts doubt either side would risk a war, which would be suicidal for the North and economy-ruining for the South.

The initial markets falls were triggered by a story by the South’s Yonhap news agency quoting a local report that the North was gearing up for war.

It later emerged that the report said only that the North would fight back if it was attacked.

Kim Jong-il may have to hope that Barack Obama rides to his rescue with a new diplomatic mission, and soon.  The North is dependent on Seoul for food aid to feed its starving population.  An interruption of any significant length could touch off a famine that could kill thousands and destabilize his regime.  If that happens, Kim may launch a limited military exchange just to act as a distraction and keep his military from revolting, which reportedly has happened more than once over the past 20 years.

Will Obama rescue Kim from himself, or will the US keep Kim backed into the corner?  Neither option looks particularly pleasant; we certainly don’t need to fight another Korean War, but neither can we allow Pyongyang to sink vessels in the Yellow Sea without consequence.  The better question may be how long we can restrain ourselves from bailing out Kim and see whether the military may just decide that he’s not worth the trouble any longer.  That won’t happen if we take off the pressure. So far at least, the Obama administration is showing remarkable — and judicious — restraint.


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Meanwhile the Dow hovers at -200

doriangrey on May 25, 2010 at 11:40 AM

strop raffing at mee! yoo no raff! yoo kreen up cat chit!

moonbatkiller on May 25, 2010 at 11:40 AM

..it’s on! Let’s see how the old jump-shooting hatchet-ass smooths this one over. I’m thinking he’ll blame the Korean problems on..

..Truman?

The War Planner on May 25, 2010 at 11:41 AM

This is huge… not because N Korea is an unhinged nation , lead by a psycopath – but it is intentionally being done by “Dear Leader” to further starve his people into a) the military or b) China’s financial and “diplomatic (caugh, caugh)” support due to the fear a mass exodus of N Koreans will flood their borders.

I believe S Korea supplies 50% of their food…

Your move Obama.

Odie1941 on May 25, 2010 at 11:41 AM

“Obama administration is showing remarkable — and judicious — restraint.”

Merely because they don’t have a clue…

PatriotRider on May 25, 2010 at 11:42 AM

This may be a good time for some family members of mine to GTFO of Seoul. Unfortunately, they’re likely stuck there until their current work contract runs out.

teke184 on May 25, 2010 at 11:42 AM

By all that’s holy don’t bail out Ronery again. Let this be the end of it. Possibly terrible short term suffering for long term peace in the north. Let those stunted, starving millions come out from under the cloud.

DON’T BAIL OUT THE DICTATOR… AGAIN.

WitchDoctor on May 25, 2010 at 11:42 AM

” The North is dependent on Seoul for food aid to feed its starving population.”

Is it just me…

… or do I see a solution to the problem here?

Seven Percent Solution on May 25, 2010 at 11:42 AM

Oh this kerfuffle will only interfere with his golf-playing….

I’d say it’s a foregone conclusion that there will be war by the time the ONE is done with his first term in office. The only question is HOW MANY.

mjk on May 25, 2010 at 11:43 AM

Hillary’s in China offering the moon if they’ll just fix all this, which was China’s plan all along before that ship was even sunk.

Akzed on May 25, 2010 at 11:45 AM

Where’s Obooba going for Memorial Day? Anyone heard?

Akzed on May 25, 2010 at 11:46 AM

Well let me get back from my holiday and Golf trip and the Paul McCartney concert and I will talk about North Korea!

Dire Straits on May 25, 2010 at 11:47 AM

strop raffing at mee! yoo no raff! yoo kreen up cat chit!

moonbatkiller on May 25, 2010 at 11:40 AM

heheh. Send in the Film Actors Guild wif Areck Bawdwin….

ted c on May 25, 2010 at 11:47 AM

“Obama administration is showing remarkable — and judicious — restraint.”

Merely because they don’t have a clue…

PatriotRider on May 25, 2010 at 11:42 AM

just wait till he gets done with that waffle…. :)

ted c on May 25, 2010 at 11:49 AM

Would the NoKo generals actually go through with a war? They gotta know they won’t prevail and they & their families will most likely wind up dead.

rbj on May 25, 2010 at 11:49 AM

How dare the North Koreans interfere with Obowma’s vacation to Chicago over Memorial Day

… It’s not like the President of the United States has anything else better to do. It’s a good thing Louisiana finally cleaned up it’s coast after Katrina.

Oh, wait!

Seven Percent Solution on May 25, 2010 at 11:49 AM

WASHINGTON—On Thursday, May 27, President Barack Obama and his family will travel to Chicago, where they will spend the weekend. On Monday, the President will participate in a Memorial Day ceremony at Abraham Lincoln National Cemetery in Elwood, Illinois.

Akzed on May 25, 2010 at 11:50 AM

The only question is HOW MANY.

mjk on May 25, 2010 at 11:43 AM

When it’s all said and done… Only won one, one mother of all wars…

doriangrey on May 25, 2010 at 11:50 AM

I was thinking last night. NK is poor with a large army. What is there to prevent them from taking SK, which is rich and industrial? Would this war be supported by the American people?

I don’t know, but if they have nukes? It changes the game.

Oil Can on May 25, 2010 at 11:51 AM

If we only had someone running our government.

I miss Bush.

petunia on May 25, 2010 at 11:59 AM

think like a little dictator, see it through his little lenses. If you’d been waiting for 5+ decades to do somfing, and do somfing BIG (cause you so short wittle maaaan), when would you do it????

tapping little size 4.5 shoe…..
huh, come on now, mista smaaatypaaants…

leady my tank, kim fetch my hermet, vee all going to get aww up in deez bizzatches!

ted c on May 25, 2010 at 11:59 AM

Escalation.

dczombie on May 25, 2010 at 12:00 PM

Would the NoKo generals actually go through with a war? They gotta know they won’t prevail and they & their families will most likely wind up dead.

rbj on May 25, 2010 at 11:49 AM

Suicide by police.

They are starving anyway.

petunia on May 25, 2010 at 12:00 PM

“Don’t you people know that I was elected to work on America’s internal problems?”

-Øbama

Kafir on May 25, 2010 at 12:01 PM

Where’s Obooba going for Memorial Day? Anyone heard?

If the President ignores the meaning of Memorial Day and merely spends it relaxing and having fun, than shame on him. Ignoring Memorial Day is for everyone else.

YYZ on May 25, 2010 at 12:01 PM

Can’t we just cut off Kim’s new porn supply from San Fernando valley? That would cause him to back down.

Hummer53 on May 25, 2010 at 12:02 PM

Oil Can on May 25, 2010 at 11:51 AM

The ROK would destroy NK within a few weeks. They would suffer heavy casualties, but they’d win.

Bugler on May 25, 2010 at 12:03 PM

I suppose the decision about what to do about Korea is above his pay grade too.

Lily on May 25, 2010 at 12:05 PM

the big fear has always been Seoul being so close to border and how their nuke wouldn’t have to travel very far to obliterate the capital and effectively South Korea and the headquarters of alot of the worlds major Tech and Manufacturing companies.

LG, Samsung, Hyndai, Kia..to name a few

jp on May 25, 2010 at 12:07 PM

I was thinking last night. NK is poor with a large army. What is there to prevent them from taking SK, which is rich and industrial? Would this war be supported by the American people?

I don’t know, but if they have nukes? It changes the game.

Oil Can on May 25, 2010 at 11:51 AM

Considering we have had troops there for close to 60 years now, bases and a great relationship with S Korea… THIS American will support them 100%

China is the key factor, always has been – always will be concerning N Korea.

But again – China DOES NOT WANT N Koreans fleeing to their country – so they will play diplomatic games.

Quite frankly – I think its high time to give the green light on taking out Kimmie, his inner circle. Then, immediately have massive amounts of food flown in, ala the Berlin Wall E Germany – and have S Koreans announce a “Korean healing process” between both nations, open up full trade and travel.

China – due to its debt ownership of America and looking for an ROI (people seem to forget China is vested to make money, not lose money) can flood N KOrea with goods, paid for by a US/UN coop.

Seem expensive? Hell no – factor in the military base costs in S Korea, that will no longer be needed along with paying for N Koreans to eat anyway ( a few hundred million a year)… problem solved.

N Korea, IF they have nuclear capabilities to hit Seoul… would also have a ripple effect of nuclear exposure throughout China, whcih couldnt be pinned on “bad Americans” – being they need that ROI.

While I despise Donald Trump – they need to use his tactics… get so far in debt that your backers need to keep you propped up to make SOMETHING back.

Sometimes owing is better than lending.

Odie1941 on May 25, 2010 at 12:07 PM

Good thing the One is in charge. Everyone else feel safe?

Darksean on May 25, 2010 at 12:09 PM

How I miss President Reagan and the Iron Lady UK Prime Minister right now.

Lady Heather on May 25, 2010 at 12:11 PM

3:00 AM is gonna be here before you know it.

hillbillyjim on May 25, 2010 at 12:14 PM

The ROK would destroy NK within a few weeks. They would suffer heavy casualties, but they’d win.

Bugler on May 25, 2010 at 12:03 PM

That’s if everything went right for the south, which is doubtful.

The south has the military power to defeat the north, but they won’t attack, their capitol is in the cross hairs, the US (current administration) will put them on a leash and China will not allow the south to win.

Odds are it will be another stalemate with a few of the chairs at the table re-arranged and lots of hand wringing on Hilary’s part and even more Rodney Kinqesque statements.

Oh, and Obama will tell us the the south acted stupidly.

cozmo on May 25, 2010 at 12:14 PM

Obama’s reaction: Time for……….

………another round of golf!

pilamaye on May 25, 2010 at 12:14 PM

“So far at least, the Obama administration is showing remarkable — and judicious — restraint.”

Why doesn’t he just give himself that new military medal for Courageous Restraint?

PatriotRider on May 25, 2010 at 12:15 PM

The ROK would destroy NK within a few weeks. They would suffer heavy casualties, but they’d win.

Bugler on May 25, 2010 at 12:03 PM

NOK has no logistics capability to sustain any offensive action. The only supplies their army would have would be on their soldiers backs.

Once again China is the key. China does not want NOK refugees or the bad PR support for KJI would produce. I have to think China is working hard to figure out how to navigate this crisis. It could wind up being a turning point in China’s international political leadership posture.

It would not surprize me if China steps up on this one and forces change in NOK. They do too much international business to be blind boneheads continueing the status quo. The PR would be really bad, and it could really hurt their business across the west.

We shall see if China is up to the task. This has to be a worrysome problem for them and finding a workable solution will not be easy. I think something will happen because clearly KJI is out of the bag.

saiga on May 25, 2010 at 12:15 PM

3:00 AM is gonna be here before you know it.

hillbillyjim on May 25, 2010 at 12:14 PM

Before you know it? I’m thinking it’s already 3:00am somewhere, and that somewhere is calling Washington DC with a wake up call right now…

doriangrey on May 25, 2010 at 12:18 PM

SK could crush the Norks pretty easily, but unfortunately, it’s the already oppressed North Koreans who would suffer the most.

Good Solid B-Plus on May 25, 2010 at 12:19 PM

I think it is less a matter of judicious restraint and more ‘I do not have a clue’ operating here. The Waffler is not big on making any decisions without seeing some poll numbers first.

Kim will allow millions of his countrymen starve to preserve his power. This is a crime against humanity. He should be forced from power, by death preferably.

GnuBreed on May 25, 2010 at 12:19 PM

Just as long as all of the players remember that the boss of NK is 100% bat$hit crazy, everything should work out OK. Or not. There is no telling what crazy people will do at any given moment.

Johnnyreb on May 25, 2010 at 12:19 PM

I love click thru ad’s, based on key word search…

Its why “koreancupid” .com is the header ad…

LOL.

Odie1941 on May 25, 2010 at 12:20 PM

Despite earlier reports that Pyongyang had mobilized its military, NBC reports that their military posture hasn’t changed at all:

Infiltration Tunnels

BDU-33 on May 25, 2010 at 12:21 PM

NOK has no logistics capability to sustain any offensive action. The only supplies their army would have would be on their soldiers backs.

True. The Norks couldn’t INVADE South Korea. However, they could still use artillery to shell the living crap out of Seoul, which is by far the biggest and most important city in the country.

teke184 on May 25, 2010 at 12:22 PM

Obama is largly impotent on this problem. He can provide thought leadership to the parties, but the real decision maker here is China.

China will not stand for an invasion by SOK and the US, but it understands how screwed up NOK is and understands that reasonable people could choose military action against NOK under theese circumstances. Thats why I think China will do something dramatic and force KJI out. NOK is a disaster in every category and China knows it. However, China will want to preserve communism in the north, so we shall see. I predict China will make a move.

saiga on May 25, 2010 at 12:22 PM

I was mistaking thinkng the ROK was smaller Army:

The Republic of Korea, with a regular military force numbering 3.7 million regular personnel among a total national population of 50 million people, has the second highest number of soldiers per capita in the world,[37] after the Democratic People’s Republic of Korea.[38]

Yeah just take out Kimmie and start over with NK.

Oil Can on May 25, 2010 at 12:22 PM

Where’s Obooba going for Memorial Day? Anyone heard?

Akzed on May 25, 2010 at 11:46 AM

He’s passing up the Wreath at the Unknown Tomb, to vacation in Chicago.

As for Jong Jong…. Get Back Jong Jong.

johnnyU on May 25, 2010 at 12:26 PM

True. The Norks couldn’t INVADE South Korea. However, they could still use artillery to shell the living crap out of Seoul, which is by far the biggest and most important city in the country.

teke184 on May 25, 2010 at 12:22 PM

No doubt about it. However, SOK has changed much sense the war. It has a number of large cities and quite a bit of their industrial base is well south of Seoul. NOK can’t beat SOK by artillery alone. But, they can make a mess.

saiga on May 25, 2010 at 12:26 PM

Kim Jong Il jealousy might be a factor in they’re sinking of South Korea ship?

China Factor’ to Boost Korea’s Economic Recovery

04-01-2010 17:56

By Yoon Ja-young
Staff Reporter

South Korea is expected to enjoy a robust economic growth this year by capitalizing on rising demand from China for capital and investment goods, Societe Generale’s economists said in an interview with The Korea Times.

“As China is moving from an external demand focus model to a domestic demand focus model and targeting very strong growth in infrastructure and investment, it is importing a lot of these capital and investment goods,” he said, adding that Korea is definitely one of those “China Five” beneficiaries, along with Taiwan, Japan, Australia and Brazil.

Korea
May 26, 2010

South Korea in the line of friendly fire
By Kim Myong Chol

[Editor’s note: North Korean leader Kim Jong-il has ordered his million-strong armed forces to “combat readiness”, according to a broadcast by the North Korean military. On Monday, South Korea announced it was suspending almost all trade links with North Korea in retaliation for the torpedoing of its warship Cheonan with the loss of 46 lives. The South has also banned all North Korean shipping from its waters and vowed to resume sensitive propaganda broadcasts across the Demilitarized Zone that were suspended in 2004.

“We do not hope for war but if South Korea, with the US and Japan on its back, tries to attack us, Kim Jong-il has ordered us to finish the task of unification left undone during the … (Korean) war (in 1953),” the military broadcast said.]

Speakup on May 25, 2010 at 12:27 PM

Guess we’ll see if Jong Jong has a nuke or not, huh. If he has anything, he won’t soon… IF this crap doesnt diffuse somehow.

johnnyU on May 25, 2010 at 12:28 PM

True. The Norks couldn’t INVADE South Korea. However, they could still use artillery to shell the living crap out of Seoul, which is by far the biggest and most important city in the country.

teke184 on May 25, 2010 at 12:22 PM

That is exactly the kind of thinking that got us nearly kicked out of Korea in 1950. They most certainly have the capability to invade the South if they want to. True they most likely could not sustain any sizable invasion force once they committed, but they would penetrate very far southward. While South Korea has a huge army, most of it is reserve people that need to be activated.

Johnnyreb on May 25, 2010 at 12:29 PM

saiga on May 25, 2010 at 12:22 PM

You are right China will set the agenda on this one, and for a change China’s best interests are also in our best interests. That huge debt China holds over us actually binds them to us. The main problem if this thing gets out of control is that neither China or NK have a very high regard for human life.

fourdeucer on May 25, 2010 at 12:30 PM

Speakup on May 25, 2010 at 12:27 PM

That is why I think something will be initiated by China. There is too much money at stake to let KJI screw the pooch when it comes to China’s business plans.

It could be China’s coming out party on the international political leadership sceene.

saiga on May 25, 2010 at 12:32 PM

This should be an easy one for Barry O…just invite Kim Jong-ill over to casa blanca for a State Dinner party. Have Beyonce and/or Mrs. O over for a couple lap dances, then have ‘ol Kimmy talk smack about the Arizona immigration law in front of Congress the next day. All will be spiffy…

Wyznowski on May 25, 2010 at 12:35 PM

Hillary’s in China offering the moon if they’ll just fix all this, which was China’s plan all along before that ship was even sunk.
Akzed on May 25, 2010 at 11:45 AM

That’s the only way any of this makes sense.

For crying out loud, Greece is getting billions to bail out its Socialist government, while Communist China and North Korea aren’t getting trillions — how long is that supposed to last?

logis on May 25, 2010 at 12:37 PM

That is exactly the kind of thinking that got us nearly kicked out of Korea in 1950. They most certainly have the capability to invade the South if they want to. True they most likely could not sustain any sizable invasion force once they committed, but they would penetrate very far southward. While South Korea has a huge army, most of it is reserve people that need to be activated.

Johnnyreb on May 25, 2010 at 12:29 PM

What framed the war was logistics. We were quickly pushed into the Pusan Parimiter, but logistics took over at Incheon. The NOK army was routed quickly. China was the key back then too, and they traded bodies for the preservation of communism. China had far shorter supply lines than ours, and the logisticks required to kick China out of NOK would have been huge. In the early 1950′s, we didn’t have the stomach for yet another major ramp up on the military equipment production and spending a counter offensive would have required.

saiga on May 25, 2010 at 12:41 PM

Clearly a good time for obamas vacation.

sonofdy on May 25, 2010 at 12:43 PM

Clearly a good time for obamas vacation.

sonofdy on May 25, 2010 at 12:43 PM

The kitchen is getting too hot.

saiga on May 25, 2010 at 12:45 PM

Just send in Team America and Kimmie will be toast in a hurry.
He won’t be ronery any more.

search4truth on May 25, 2010 at 12:47 PM

Sheriff Joe Biden was right… Barack is getting tested on foreign policy… Unfortunately there’s no Ivy League grade inflation with megalomaniacal dictators…

phreshone on May 25, 2010 at 12:51 PM

Obama administration is showing remarkable — and judicious — restraint.”

Merely because they don’t have a clue…

PatriotRider on May 25, 2010 at 11:42 AM

After all, if S. Korea hadn’t been acting stupidly all these years, the WH might be more inclined to intervene and cool N. Korea’s attempt to save itself from the aggressive neighbor to the south.

BobMbx on May 25, 2010 at 12:52 PM

How can it be a war of words if they have stopped communicating?

paulsur on May 25, 2010 at 12:54 PM

How can it be a war of words if they have stopped communicating?

paulsur on May 25, 2010 at 12:54 PM

You’re a counter-revolutionary, aren’t you?

Be careful, or you’ll be charged with felony “Speaking in a denigrating manner about Mr. Obama”.

BobMbx on May 25, 2010 at 12:57 PM

saiga on May 25, 2010 at 12:32 PM

IMHO China uses Kimmie like a bowling ball, they can start him rolling but there’s no guarantee of how far or where he’ll go.

At times like these Beijing must be wondering if he’s worth the trouble and maybe that special secret relationship isn’t so special.

Hu Jintao could settle his little tin pot dynasty’s hash in two weeks if he felt the obligation but he doesn’t because we’re obligating ourselves in China’s place.

Speakup on May 25, 2010 at 12:58 PM

The really interesting thing abvout this takes a long view. in the early 20th cantury, Korea was a basket case and easily overrun by Japan. Because Mao beat Chang Kai Chek about the time of the war’s end and ran him to Formosa, when the Japaneese were run out, they made a decision to partition Korea to keep peace in the valley so to speak. Because of Stalin and Mao, the political ideology compitition was on.

In retrospect, it is amazing to me what a pi$$ poor job the commies did and the west did to develope their respective Korean sectors in the late 1940′s. It took the Korean war to wake up the west, and we jumped in and helped develope an economic powerhouse in the south, while the commies went to sleep and let the north turn into a disaster because their hands were full. It took the Chineese almost 40 years to wake up and understand the show. By then, it was way too late, and they are paying the price now.

I think the Chineese know it, and that is why I think they will have to bite the bullet now.

saiga on May 25, 2010 at 1:00 PM

Why the bis-ass hats on these guys?

Alden Pyle on May 25, 2010 at 1:00 PM

“Obama administration is showing remarkable — and judicious — restraint.”

…in the manner of someone who couldn’t pour sand out of a boot with instructions printed on a heel.

Hu Jintao could settle his little tin pot dynasty’s hash in two weeks if he felt the obligation but he doesn’t because we’re obligating ourselves in China’s place.

Speakup on May 25, 2010 at 12:58 PM

Well said. Even the most brainwashed Chi-Com must know how much of a crackpot Kim is; and their military isn’t tied up in two foreign permawars besides.

I really hope the US quits fumbling around and tells China “make your puppet behave or we will.” Not a few in SK have spit in our faces, and NK isn’t worth the life of one single American soldier. Not even one who’s on KP duty.

Dark-Star on May 25, 2010 at 1:08 PM

NK doesn’t strike me as an issue with a simple answer. People are raised there on 24-7 “Dear Leader” propaganda. The only information they get is the information that the state allows them to get. They may not have much, but, what they have was given to them by Dear Leader. Often, they are told that they have a better quality of life than people elsewhere in the world, and, since they don’t have any other sources of info to dispute that, they believe it.

You can’t just go in and install a new leader that will be nice to the people.

JadeNYU on May 25, 2010 at 1:10 PM

And yes, I understand the west had it’s hands full with Europe and Japan in the late 1940′s, but we should have seen it coming. We had all those resources in Japan, and we could have placed a little more focus on SOK. I guess we thought progress was good enough in SOK at the time.

Russia and China were not very good friends, and they never really seemed to agree on what to do with NOK, and decided that so long as they were communist, all was well. I think the north’s invasion of the south in 1950 kind of caught the commies in Russia and China flat footed, and they wound up in a reaction mode just like us in 1950.

After the Korean war, the commies were not proactive in NOK, while we were in the south. Bad mistake for them. That is why I think they understand it will be their job to clean up the mess they caused.

saiga on May 25, 2010 at 1:13 PM

JadeNYU on May 25, 2010 at 1:10 PM

No doubt about it, but just like post war Japan, people can adapt quickly. When you are starving, simply getting food can make a big difference.

saiga on May 25, 2010 at 1:16 PM

Lets Celebrate Memorial Day by sparking off Korea. nice.

johnnyU on May 25, 2010 at 1:20 PM

A communications disruption could mean only one thing: invasion.

– Sio Bibble “The Phantom Menace”

vcferlita on May 25, 2010 at 1:24 PM

By the west giving aide to N.Korea, we have just fed the officers that keep that country repressed.

It is unbelievable what is going on in that hell hole.

TheSitRep on May 25, 2010 at 1:25 PM

No doubt about it, but just like post war Japan, people can adapt quickly. When you are starving, simply getting food can make a big difference.

saiga on May 25, 2010 at 1:16 PM

I’m not quite sure what you mean by that, but Japan had been a developed industrial nation with a relatively high standard of living before the war. North Koreans have been disconnected from reality for many decades. It will be difficult and slow for them to adjust I think.

DarkCurrent on May 25, 2010 at 1:31 PM

The situation is well in hand.
Our dear leader will simply have dialog with their dear leader and presto chango. I am just wondering why Obamugabe hasn’t already used his incredible intelligence, education and oratory skilz to fix the worlds problems.

Oh well, maybe he is just the retarded Marxist Kenyan people say he is.
Maybe I just have false hope in the first clean and articulate…….

TheSitRep on May 25, 2010 at 1:43 PM

Would the NoKo generals actually go through with a war?
rbj on May 25, 2010 at 11:49 AM

Hard to say: how much do they like wearing those top-notch, goofy-ass hats?

ya2daup on May 25, 2010 at 1:44 PM

Scenarios
=========================

http://www.cdi.org/north-korea/north-korea-crisis.pdf

======================================================

What may happen is that an hour or two before North Korean tanks are slated to begin rolling south, on receiving confirmation of an imminent invasion, the USAF and Korean Air Force will launch massive spoiling attacks on North Korea’s DMZ artillery positions, C&C nodes, airfields, critical infrastructure, and supply depots. Below is one scenario of a “Surgical Air Strike” from the 2003 report Stand-Off with North Korea: War Scenarios and Consequences by two analysts from the Center for Defense Information that gives some idea of the immense significance of US air power.
—————————————–

Six B-2s each armed with 80 500-lb JDAMs sequentially launch from Guam. The strike is coordinated with several divisions of B1-s with 12 JDAMs per aircraft and F-117s with two laser-guided precision-guided weapons per aircraft, taking off from other bases in the region. These strikes would be deconflicted with the launch of more than 300 Tomahawk cruise missiles from the various cruisers and submarines positioned in the Pacific. Six additional B2s, flying out of their homebase in Missouri, time their arrival closely behind – loaded with 24 1,000lb JDAMs or 16 2,000lb JDAMs. One thousand targets could be destroyed prior to sunrise. This would prepare the battleground for ground forces to rapidly sweep to the North under a protective close air support umbrella of tactical aircraft from two carrier battle groups and other aircraft and assault helicopters in the South.
==================================================

The F-117 was retired in 2008, but is now being replaced by the much more capable F-22 Raptor. The scenario remains valid. However, it actually referred to a long-planned surgical strike designed to take out the North’s nuclear reactor at Yongbyon and decapitate its means for artillery retaliation. Obviously, the overall damage will not be as crippling to the North if the US and ROK have advance notice of only a few hours. Nonetheless, America’s bomber forces are at permanent readiness, there is an uninterrupted carrier battle group (CVBG) presence near the Korean peninsula, and the their target lists are always up to date. The preemptive air strikes will substantially weaken the Northern assault given their poor air defense and logistics.
—————-
======================================

How a Second Korean War will be Fought

http://www.sublimeoblivion.com/2010/03/28/korean-war-2/

canopfor on May 25, 2010 at 1:47 PM

DarkCurrent on May 25, 2010 at 1:31 PM

Just air drop a few million Nintendo DS, fully loaded iPods (preferably without 0bamas speeches), and boxes of Krispy Kreme donuts and they will look like the 51st state in few weeks :)

Wolftech on May 25, 2010 at 1:50 PM

Dark-Star on May 25, 2010 at 1:08 PM

The US military option for No Ko is very very ugly, So Korea would suffer terrible devastation even in a best case scenario, China would take a very dim view of it, but then on the other hand what’s the end result here?

Kimmie has a son just as ruthless as he is, the military there is more than happy to oppress and starve the people, how much shorter can they get?

At some point we have to get out of South Korea, our play at this table is no winner, we’re not gaining ground and China sees our involvement as a benefit to them.

It would be better if China took custody of Kimmies nukes and cut his lineage short.

IMHO

Speakup on May 25, 2010 at 1:51 PM

Would the NoKo generals actually go through with a war?
rbj on May 25, 2010 at 11:49 AM

You only need to look at Korea’s past propensity for rage to answer that.

Speakup on May 25, 2010 at 1:54 PM

Is it time for a confrontation between the two Koreas? I would not argue against it. And as long as it did not go nuclear, it would be great fun to watch (film at 11:00 as they say).

moochy on May 25, 2010 at 1:57 PM

canopfor on May 25, 2010 at 1:47 PM

No sensor-fuzed cluster munitions? Boring…

DarkCurrent on May 25, 2010 at 1:58 PM

It would be better if China took custody of Kimmies nukes and cut his lineage short.

IMHO

Speakup on May 25, 2010 at 1:51 PM

No doubt about it.

saiga on May 25, 2010 at 2:04 PM

Guess we’ll see if Jong Jong has a nuke or not, huh. If he has anything, he won’t soon… IF this crap doesnt diffuse somehow.

johnnyU on May 25, 2010 at 12:28 PM

If Krazy Kim has a nuke, he wouldn’t use it on South Korea–the fallout would blow back over the North, and he could poison his own people.

True. The Norks couldn’t INVADE South Korea. However, they could still use artillery to shell the living crap out of Seoul, which is by far the biggest and most important city in the country.

This would be the biggest danger of a military confrontation with North Korea. There would be lots of casualties and damage in Seoul, and the people of the South (who have a vibrant, thriving economy) would have to be pushed to the brink to take that kind of risk, and the sinking of one ship is probably not enough to provoke a war. For prosperous, democratic South Korea, there’s not much in the North worth taking or fighting for, so they probably would not provoke a war themselves.

If a war did break out, the U.S. would have to be ready to unleash a rapid, “shock and awe” air attack on the North’s artillery along the DMZ, to neutralize it before it does too much damage to Seoul, which could be spun as a “defensive” response, since the objective would be to save Seoul, not directly attack civilians in the North. Mobilizing the F-22 bombers to Guam is a good first step, since the threat of an air attack might incite Krazy Kim to back off.

Interdiction of Nork shipping in South Korea’s territorial waters is totally reasonable–South Korea should have the right to peaceful commerce without risk of their ships being sunk, and if that means that North Korean ships have to go further around the peninsula, TFB.

Steve Z on May 25, 2010 at 2:04 PM

North Koreans have been disconnected from reality for many decades. It will be difficult and slow for them to adjust I think.

DarkCurrent on May 25, 2010 at 1:31 PM

I think the lower the expectation, the easier to adjust. Japaneese had a lot to loose, and they adjusted. The NO Koreans have nothing to loose.

saiga on May 25, 2010 at 2:06 PM

Lose, sorry. Too fast.

saiga on May 25, 2010 at 2:06 PM

How a Second Korean War will be Fought

http://www.sublimeoblivion.com/2010/03/28/korean-war-2/

canopfor on May 25, 2010 at 1:47 PM

Great analysis, but that was from 2003, when Bush was President. Would Obama have the cojones for this?

Steve Z on May 25, 2010 at 2:09 PM

I think the lower the expectation, the easier to adjust. Japaneese had a lot to loose, and they adjusted. The NO Koreans have nothing to loose.

saiga on May 25, 2010 at 2:06 PM

It’s an interesting question to think about. It seems that at this point most North Koreans must be living in a fantasy world, however poor and oppressed. That would all be swept away quite abruptly. I imagine most would be totally disoriented as a result.

DarkCurrent on May 25, 2010 at 2:21 PM

How a Second Korean War will be Fought

http://www.sublimeoblivion.com/2010/03/28/korean-war-2/

canopfor on May 25, 2010 at 1:47 PM
======================
Great analysis, but that was from 2003, when Bush was President. Would Obama have the cojones for this?

Steve Z on May 25, 2010 at 2:09 PM

Steve Z:Well,if the Korea’s go hot,I think Obama won’t have
a choice,and if there was ever a time for war,its on
the brink!!

Heres a few more links!:)
=====================================
Strategic Studies Institute
United States Army War College
——————————-

http://www.strategicstudiesinstitute.army.mil/national-security-strategy-policy/

=======================================
38 North

is a website devoted to analysis of North Korea. While it strives to break new ground, the site’s main objective is to bring the best possible analysis to all those who work on North Korea for a living and those who are just interested in what happens there. Too often analysis of the North is permeated by inexperience, littered with inaccurate information or grounded in just plain bad deductive reasoning. We believe no one really knows for sure what is going on in North Korea but we can at least try to understand the possibilities. And anyone who professes certainty should be viewed with the greatest skepticism.
=================================

http://38north.org/about/

canopfor on May 25, 2010 at 2:39 PM

Steve Z on May 25, 2010 at 2:04 PM

The problem with NOKO artillery is that it is underground, kind of like Iwo Jima artillery was. Hard to blast out from the air. We have sophisticated artillery radar that lets us return fire to the source of the incoming before it actually hits, but at long range the return fire is not precise enough. They could hammer away for some time.

saiga on May 25, 2010 at 2:54 PM

I always id like that pic. I like to imaging that Little Kimmie is doing a free-style rap, while the guy on the right plays mouth-drums…

mojo on May 25, 2010 at 2:55 PM

My, my, all these hawkish nervous comments about the NORKs when an obvious solution has been presented to us on many occasions. I’m certain if the president would simply schedule a round of golf on the psychopath’s, er, Dear Leader’s best course and then prostrate himself humbly before and after each hole, this matter can be resolved amiably.

Sailfish on May 25, 2010 at 4:10 PM

Here’s a suggestion. Cut all FUEL and FOOD subsidies and delivery’s to the North Koreans. Didn’t we do that in exchange for their abandoning their nuke and missile programs?

They did, didn’t they? Bueller? Bueller?

Maybe if CHINA suddenly has the prospect of dealing with THOUSANDS of starving North Koreans on THEIR border, the Chinese might be ENCOURAGED to help us deal with DEAR LEADER.

GarandFan on May 25, 2010 at 4:58 PM

the Obama administration is showing remarkable — and judicious — restraint.

Bull$%!t.
The White House waited over 30 days to have a press conference on the oil spill. They waited months before deciding on mobilizing troops into Afghanistan. They will wait until shots are fired and war is no longer a question before taking a stand one way or the other.

Maybe if they ignore it, it will go away. Did not work before but we know how persistent the CinC has been in his “What me Worry” outlook on governing.

mechkiller_k on May 25, 2010 at 5:14 PM

I don’t think Comrade Pudge is really willing to risk it. The damage wrought upon the Commies would be ten times whatever they can reign down upon the ROK. Besides, with bunker busters and drones, he knows his sorry butt can be taken out.

Dr. ZhivBlago on May 25, 2010 at 8:17 PM