Whoa: Fiorina 46, Campbell 23, DeVore 14

posted at 9:30 pm on May 24, 2010 by Allahpundit

I’m completely mystified. Here’s what the poll of polls looks like:

And here’s Survey USA this afternoon:

In the Republican primary for US Senator, support for former Hewlett Packard CEO Carly Fiorina is up sharply in the past 2 weeks, from 24% on 05/10/10 to 46% today 05/24/10. Fiorina’s support has more than doubled among women, seniors, Hispanics, the less educated, and in the Inland Empire. During these 2 weeks, Former Congressman Tom Campbell’s support dropped 12 points, from 35% on 05/10/10 to 23% today 05/24/10…

SurveyUSA interviewed 2,700 California adults 05/21/10 through 05/23/10. Of them, 2,311 were registered to vote. Of the registered voters, 612 were determined by SurveyUSA to be likely to vote in the 06/08/10 Republican Primary; 716 were determined to be likely to vote in the 06/08/10 Democratic primary. Early voting began two weeks ago, 05/10/10.

If you’re thinking 612 is too small a sample and therefore bound to produce unreliable results, think again: Rasmussen used 500 likely voters in his latest poll of the Arizona gubernatorial race. Survey USA is a reputable pollster too, so there’s no reason to think that the books were cooked here. And yet … how could Fiorina’s support double in just two weeks? Palin’s endorsement came back on May 6, the same day as the Senate primary debate, but if Fiorina got some huge bounce out of that it should have shown up (at least partly) in the last Survey USA poll taken between May 6 and May 9. It didn’t. Carly was floundering at 24 percent; Campbell led with 35 percent and DeVore was actually a point better than he is today at 15 percent.

Assuming the poll is accurate-ish and not some wild outlier, the only explanation I can come up with is undecideds breaking hard for Fiorina for whatever reason. In the poll two weeks ago, 23 percent were undecided. Today’s it’s only 11 percent, with virtually the entire difference having now broken for Carly along with a huge chunk of Campbell’s support. Any reason why that would be? All I can figure is that Campbell was hurt by the emphasis on Israel at the debate, and since DeVore appears to be a lost cause, fencesitters have decided on Fiorina as the best combo of viability and principle. Any theories?


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Haven’t seen a single DeVore or Campbell commercial yet…

rightheaded on May 24, 2010 at 9:36 PM

I’m in NorCal, the conservative bastion of California, and there have been NO commercials from anyone other than Fiorina. Her commercials are not attack ads. They come off as calm, concise and informed. People are going to buy into that after watching months and months of Whitman and Poizner attack each other without ever mentioning their own position on the issues.

speed911 on May 25, 2010 at 12:33 AM

“DeVore can’t win the primary because RINOs won’t vote for him”

Pretty much nobody in California would vote for him. Republicans are a smaller minority in California than in most states. DeVore will get slaughtered in a general election. What is the point of running the candidate that would lose by the widest margin?

crosspatch on May 25, 2010 at 12:35 AM

Well, sound like a ‘begging the question’ argument to me. DeVore can’t win the primary because RINOs won’t vote for him, ergo Carly wins…so she must be a conservative.

Very lame.

AUINSC on May 25, 2010 at 12:25 AM

No…it’s more like, “Hey, DeVore seems to be a really great guy with solid conservative values but he’s solidly and consistently in third in a three person race…and hey, Campbell is completely unacceptable as a GOP candidate…and hey, Fiorina seems to have the right stances on important issues and good endorsements from groups conservatives support… So let’s throw in with the person that might not be the most conservative in the race but is conservative enough and actually has a chance to beat both Campbell and Boxer. Which is the point.”

powerpro on May 25, 2010 at 12:35 AM

The figures have been adjusted for the 2000 HP stock split. If you run a company into the ground, why should you be a great senator?

Fiorina was ousted out by seveal board members, including Hewlitt’s grandson who was on the board. She was, as I understand it, paid to leave.

The fact is, she was a terrible ceo. No one in business (as far as I can tell disputes that). So, Palin’s aburd praise of her business success and putting HP in a better and stronger foundtion is insanity.

Point is- Palin doesn’t stand firm on principle. She simply went with whoever was leading in the polls at the time. Which is why she took so much flak for her endorsement. That’s lame in my book. It speaks volumes of Palin the pundit and celebrity who knows she’s no chance at election again. And it annoys me. We need to stand behind strong conservative candidates who share our values.

TheBlueSite on May 25, 2010 at 12:36 AM

Do you have anything else that she suggest she isn’t a conservative? I’m sure I have things to learn on this race, though I’ve tried to read up on it. So far all I have heard is that she campaigned for McCain and she was a CEO of a company with a dying product pipeline.

stldave on May 25, 2010 at 12:30 AM

How about ‘cap and trade’? She supports the Kerry/Graham bill.

And this:

“When asked her position on Justice Sonia Sotomayor’s confirmation, Ms. Fiorina stated “I probably would have voted for Sotomayor. She seemed qualified.”

And this:

http://michellemalkin.com/2010/01/23/mccain-backed-gop-senate-candidate-carly-fiorina-hearts-jesse-jackson/

AUINSC on May 25, 2010 at 12:40 AM

Point is- Palin doesn’t stand firm on principle. She simply went with whoever was leading in the polls at the time. Which is why she took so much flak for her endorsement. That’s lame in my book. It speaks volumes of Palin the pundit and celebrity who knows she’s no chance at election again. And it annoys me. We need to stand behind strong conservative candidates who share our values.

TheBlueSite on May 25, 2010 at 12:36 AM

Oh good grief. You’re just going to blather on without paying any attention to what other people have posted, aren’t you? That list of endorsements from conservative groups means nothing, right? Palin just endorsed the one with the highest poll numbers?

If that’s the case, why didn’t she support Campbell? He was at least a dozen points above Fiorina at one point. But she didn’t, because he is unacceptable based on the principles she supports that you say she doesn’t have.

powerpro on May 25, 2010 at 12:40 AM

powerpro on May 25, 2010 at 12:35 AM

I’ll certainly support her if she gets the nomination…but Devore is the true conservative here. No matter what Sarah says.

AUINSC on May 25, 2010 at 12:41 AM

Whatever.

I’m still going with DeVore.

The Ugly American on May 24, 2010 at 11:54 PM

Whatever certainly indicates it’s the issue’s that direct’s your choices./s

heshtesh on May 25, 2010 at 12:42 AM

How about ‘cap and trade’? She supports the Kerry/Graham bill.

AUINSC on May 25, 2010 at 12:40 AM

From Carly’s site:

Barbara Boxer’s misguided cap-and-trade legislation will not lead us in that direction, which is why Carly ardently opposes it. This disastrous bill will lead to more job losses for American families and more onerous regulation on our nation’s businesses. In fact, a recent Heritage Foundation report finds that cap-and-trade would cost American families $2,872 every year! Boxer’s cap-and-trade scheme won’t produce a single megawatt of new energy; instead, it will punish manufacturers and small-business owners and put the U.S. at a competitive disadvantage with nations like China and India.

powerpro on May 25, 2010 at 12:44 AM

powerpro on May 25, 2010 at 12:44 AM

Check it out…she’s trying to have it both ways. Like I said, she supports the Graham/Kerry bill:

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=znrYSVHn2nU

Oh yeah…she’s credible there.

AUINSC on May 25, 2010 at 12:47 AM

Except Fiorina, always the political opportunist (much like Palin) supported cap and trade before she was against it.

http://climateprogress.org/2010/03/16/flashback-carly-fiorina-said-cap-and-trade-will-both-create-jobs-and-lower-the-cost-of-energy/

TheBlueSite on May 25, 2010 at 12:47 AM

Nice diversion.
I’m still waiting for you to defend your opinion that Carly “isn’t a conservative” when presented with evidence to the contrary…

Jenfidel on May 25, 2010 at 12:09 AM

Well…where are you now?

AUINSC on May 25, 2010 at 12:48 AM

I’ll certainly support her if she gets the nomination…but Devore is the true conservative here. No matter what Sarah says.

AUINSC on May 25, 2010 at 12:41 AM

Yes…DeVore is a conservative. But so is Carly. She might not be AS conservative as DeVore, but she has a chance to win. Sadly, DeVore does not seem to.

So the question is, do people support a solid candidate who cannot make it to the finish line in the primary over a candidate who’s got conservative bona fides who could go all the way, and thereby handicapping them to potentially lose to an unacceptable candidate?

For me, if this were DeVore versus Carly, I’d support DeVore. With Campbell in the mix, supporting DeVore turns into one less vote for Fiorina to defeat Campbell.

powerpro on May 25, 2010 at 12:49 AM

I can’t believe in 2008 a bunch of dumb college kids who thought Obama was hip and cool ruined the election for us, and in 2012 we’re going to ruin our chances ourselves by backing dimbulbs like Palin and Fiorina and Paul and others.

Depressing.

I guess there’s always the option of just staying home and watching things burn around you. Hoping the collapse isn’t too bad and that we don’t see some weird Mad Msx type scenario.

TheBlueSite on May 25, 2010 at 12:51 AM

Couldn’t it easily be argued that Palin’s endorsement, tho I find it silly anyone cares what she thinks, could have boosted DeVore above the other two? Forcing them to toss their hats in DeVore’s ring?

TheBlueSite on May 25, 2010 at 12:52 AM

Except Fiorina, always the political opportunist (much like Palin) supported cap and trade before she was against it.

http://climateprogress.org/2010/03/16/flashback-carly-fiorina-said-cap-and-trade-will-both-create-jobs-and-lower-the-cost-of-energy/

TheBlueSite on May 25, 2010 at 12:47 AM

Unneccessary Palin sniping aside, it could also be that Carly’s changed her position given the climategate scandal.

I’m not saying it’s the case here since I do not know Fiorina’s mind or heart, but it’s not unheard of for someone to have a principled change of mind on a major issue, especially when an international scandal shows it to be a fraud.

powerpro on May 25, 2010 at 12:53 AM

powerpro on May 25, 2010 at 12:49 AM

This is a primary…not the general election. Yes, she’s beating Devore. I understand the logic here.

Doesn’t make those of use who would prefer Devore wrong though.

And remember…something very much like this happened when Arnold won the nomination for Governor.

AUINSC on May 25, 2010 at 12:53 AM

Point is- Palin doesn’t stand firm on principle.
TheBlueSite on May 25, 2010 at 12:36 AM

Maybe some day you can explain that to Trig.

bw222 on May 25, 2010 at 12:54 AM

Unneccessary Palin sniping aside, it could also be that Carly’s changed her position given the climategate scandal.

I’m not saying it’s the case here since I do not know Fiorina’s mind or heart, but it’s not unheard of for someone to have a principled change of mind on a major issue, especially when an international scandal shows it to be a fraud.

powerpro on May 25, 2010 at 12:53 AM

Did you see that youtube clip I posted? It was posted May 5.

AUINSC on May 25, 2010 at 12:56 AM

This is a primary…not the general election. Yes, she’s beating Devore. I understand the logic here.

Doesn’t make those of use who would prefer Devore wrong though.

And remember…something very much like this happened when Arnold won the nomination for Governor.

AUINSC on May 25, 2010 at 12:53 AM

I agree and I see the knife’s edge that voters have to balance on in this one. I can see both sides of this and I don’t diss either of them.

There’s always a time when there’s a little pragmatism that comes into play when considering who to vote for in a primary, especially if it’s a three way race and one of the options is a disaster in the making like Campbell.

That being said, CA would have been much better off with the guy I liked…I think his name was McClintock…I remembered hoping he’d win over Arnold.

powerpro on May 25, 2010 at 12:57 AM

These are Fiorina’s words spoken only two weeks after 9-11:

There was once a civilization that was the greatest in the world.

It was able to create a continental super-state that stretched from ocean to ocean, and from northern climes to tropics and deserts. Within its dominion lived hundreds of millions of people, of different creeds and ethnic origins.

One of its languages became the universal language of much of the world, the bridge between the peoples of a hundred lands. Its armies were made up of people of many nationalities, and its military protection allowed a degree of peace and prosperity that had never been known. The reach of this civilization’s commerce extended from Latin America to China, and everywhere in between.

And this civilization was driven more than anything, by invention. Its architects designed buildings that defied gravity. Its mathematicians created the algebra and algorithms that would enable the building of computers, and the creation of encryption. Its doctors examined the human body, and found new cures for disease. Its astronomers looked into the heavens, named the stars, and paved the way for space travel and exploration.

Its writers created thousands of stories. Stories of courage, romance and magic. Its poets wrote of love, when others before them were too steeped in fear to think of such things.

When other nations were afraid of ideas, this civilization thrived on them, and kept them alive. When censors threatened to wipe out knowledge from past civilizations, this civilization kept the knowledge alive, and passed it on to others.

While modern Western civilization shares many of these traits, the civilization I’m talking about was the Islamic world from the year 800 to 1600, which included the Ottoman Empire and the courts of Baghdad, Damascus and Cairo, and enlightened rulers like Suleiman the Magnificent.

Although we are often unaware of our indebtedness to this other civilization, its gifts are very much a part of our heritage. The technology industry would not exist without the contributions of Arab mathematicians.

Just consider her words, her world view, reviewing that speech line-by-line. Yes, Islam created a super-state that stretched across nations, from ocean to ocean. Does anyone besides Ms. Fiorina think that empire was built with mathematical insights? It was built with jihad and sword, intimidation and mass murder, mass beheadings and forced conversions of Jews and Christians. How can she be so remarkably ignorant of the abased and humiliated “dhimmi” status under which people of “different creeds” and “ethnic origins” lived within that orbit of Islam?

Heckle on May 25, 2010 at 12:57 AM

Palin endorsement, plus Carly is running great ads often in CA.

John the Libertarian on May 25, 2010 at 12:57 AM

That being said, CA would have been much better off with the guy I liked…I think his name was McClintock…I remembered hoping he’d win over Arnold.

powerpro on May 25, 2010 at 12:57 AM

Yep, that’s exactly the one I was thinking of.

AUINSC on May 25, 2010 at 12:58 AM

VOTE DeVore!!

He’s the true conservative!!!!!!!

Mark7788 on May 25, 2010 at 1:01 AM

I was actually really glad to see she backed it off.

I thought it was petty.

AnninCA

Just because you keep saying something over and over doesn’t make it so. She didn’t back it off, just like she didn’t make a conspiratorial argument.

Why are you even paying attention to Sarah, or anyone else for that matter? Clearly you have plenty of voices in your head keeping you busy, making reality totally unnecessary.

xblade on May 25, 2010 at 1:03 AM

VOTE DeVore!!

He’s the true conservative!!!!!!!

Mark7788

Vote Devore, and lose the war.

xblade on May 25, 2010 at 1:06 AM

Did you see that youtube clip I posted? It was posted May 5.

AUINSC on May 25, 2010 at 12:56 AM

It might have been posted May 5, but it was from October 2009.

powerpro on May 25, 2010 at 1:06 AM

It might have been posted May 5, but it was from October 2009.

powerpro on May 25, 2010 at 1:06 AM

Wasn’t sure when it was from…had to be since Graham and Kerry put it together though.

Either way, it bugs me…that and pandering to Jesse Jackson is a major sin.

AUINSC on May 25, 2010 at 1:10 AM

How about ‘cap and trade’? She supports the Kerry/Graham bill.

And this:

“When asked her position on Justice Sonia Sotomayor’s confirmation, Ms. Fiorina stated “I probably would have voted for Sotomayor. She seemed qualified.”

And this:

http://michellemalkin.com/2010/01/23/mccain-backed-gop-senate-candidate-carly-fiorina-hearts-jesse-jackson/

AUINSC on May 25, 2010 at 12:40 AM

The second item is meaningful. I knew her most recent comments, but obviously that’s concerning, and makes it a sure loser with Boxer in debates. Boxer can both win the left, and deflate the right, over that issue.

Regarding judges, it’s really a lot of cat and mouse. If you elect a liberal President you’re going to get a liberal judge. You’re only going to get enough momentum when the President overreaches, and this President is capable of going way left as we all know. The cliche is that elections have consequences, but it is true.

To be clear, I’d certainly want Devore if the results were flipped. If his supporters can get enough momentum to make him a factor in the primary and general it would be great, but I’ve come to the conclusion it isn’t going to happen no matter what Erickson says. I don’t like Campbell at all, and he’s going to win if someone doesn’t drop out. I’m convinced Fiorina is a huge upgrade over Campbell, and I think she’d have a fighters chance against Boxer.

stldave on May 25, 2010 at 1:12 AM

Carly’s got lots of experience wrecking large corporations: she’ll work really well with the Obama administration….

/sarc>

landlines on May 25, 2010 at 1:13 AM

Either way…if this poll is right, it doesn’t matter. It’s Fiorina vs. Boxer. You know what to do CA.

Boxer delenda est.

AUINSC on May 25, 2010 at 1:13 AM

Wasn’t sure when it was from…had to be since Graham and Kerry put it together though.

Well she mentions in that video clip their op-ed “yesterday in the NYT”…that was early October 2009. Climategate unleashed in November.

And I agree…I’m not thrilled that she ever backed this, just like I hate that Newt sat on that couch with Pelosi.

Either way, it bugs me…that and pandering to Jesse Jackson is a major sin.

AUINSC on May 25, 2010 at 1:10 AM

I’m not thrilled with that either. But then no politician is perfect … and you’ve got to play with the hand you’re dealt sometimes.

Like I said, between her and DeVore, I’d pick DeVore. Campbell’s inclusion makes it necessary to support whichever of the two has a chance to ensure his and Bab’s defeat. I wish that were DeVore but it doesn’t look like that’s in the cards.

powerpro on May 25, 2010 at 1:16 AM

To be clear, I’d certainly want Devore if the results were flipped. If his supporters can get enough momentum to make him a factor in the primary and general it would be great, but I’ve come to the conclusion it isn’t going to happen no matter what Erickson says. I don’t like Campbell at all, and he’s going to win if someone doesn’t drop out. I’m convinced Fiorina is a huge upgrade over Campbell, and I think she’d have a fighters chance against Boxer.

stldave on May 25, 2010 at 1:12 AM

Yeah, this is just a disagreement over the primary…if she’s the GOP choice, then in the general, it’s a no-brainer. And yeah, Cambell would be the worst of the three, by far.

AUINSC on May 25, 2010 at 1:16 AM

Boxer delenda est.

AUINSC on May 25, 2010 at 1:13 AM

QFT.

powerpro on May 25, 2010 at 1:17 AM

Either way…if this poll is right, it doesn’t matter. It’s Fiorina vs. Boxer. You know what to do CA.

Boxer delenda est.

AUINSC on May 25, 2010 at 1:13 AM

I can’t believe that poll is right, but we’ll see what comes up in the next few. If it is right, or even close to right, then all our Devore/Fiorina back and forth is pretty pointless isn’t it?

stldave on May 25, 2010 at 1:18 AM

Don’t capitulate during primaries. Strategery this, strategery that… if people would all just vote for who they agreed with in their gut we’d be better off.

NTWR on May 25, 2010 at 1:18 AM

powerpro on May 25, 2010 at 1:16 AM

Yeah. I guess I am just not getting my hopes up too high…don’t want too much heartache when she ‘reaches across the aisle’.

Nevertheless…Boxer is so loathsome, I’d chose a cockroach if it were running against her…though I’m not comparing Carly to a cockroach. Just putting Boxer into perspective.

AUINSC on May 25, 2010 at 1:19 AM

During this evening’s 24 finale, I saw an ad for Devore featuring endorcements by Mitt Romney, Condeliza Rice and the president of the Howard Jarvis assoc.

kurtzz3 on May 25, 2010 at 1:22 AM

That’s SENATOR COACKROACH. ;)

powerpro on May 25, 2010 at 1:22 AM

Yeah. I guess I am just not getting my hopes up too high…don’t want too much heartache when she ‘reaches across the aisle’.

Nevertheless…Boxer is so loathsome, I’d chose a cockroach if it were running against her…though I’m not comparing Carly to a cockroach. Just putting Boxer into perspective.

AUINSC on May 25, 2010 at 1:19 AM

It’s utterly deflating, I know. I used to live in Illinois and know how tough it is to be out of sync politically with your state. But the reality is that whoever California produces is bound to disappoint at times. I don’t think Devore can win, but even if he does I would be braced for a few disappointments from him. Probably not as many as Fiorina, and far less still than Campbell, but still enough to note. Because it’s California, and many of our stances won’t poll well there. Then again, I’m pretty much a cynic about all these guys.

stldave on May 25, 2010 at 1:33 AM

I get it with all the chatter. Because of the polling, in a primary, I should vote for the candidate that looks most likely to win versus their stance on issues and the politic ideology. If that was the case, then I should vote for Campbell. The only reason Campbell’s a Republican is because of folks like you.

Vote for who you want but I will not compromise. I will feel good with my conscience voting for someone who represents me and my values. Whether he wins is irrelevant. If that where the case, since my son’s team was in 3rd to last place for his season in baseball and the team he played against tonight was in 6th place, if I was going by your “philosophy” I should have been cheering and primed for the team opposing my son, rather than cheering for the team that meant something to me for a reason. I’m sorry, I’m not cheering on my son’s opposing team no matter how much you tell me my son will lose.

In this family, we never give up or give in and we consistently fight for our principles, values, and the things we believe in. I don’t know how you put your head down on your pillow and sleep at night doing it any other way. How you live with yourself taking the easy way out because it’s easier. Thank God Spartans didn’t act like that!

Sultry Beauty on May 25, 2010 at 2:05 AM

Thank God Spartans didn’t act like that!

Sultry Beauty on May 25, 2010 at 2:05 AM

What was that line? IIRC, only Spartan women are strong enough to have Spartan children.

That sounds like you.

platypus on May 25, 2010 at 2:29 AM

I don’t know how you put your head down on your pillow and sleep at night doing it any other way. How you live with yourself taking the easy way out because it’s easier.

Sultry Beauty on May 25, 2010 at 2:05 AM

If you look at who is the more pro-Life Conservative candidate, that would be Carly over Devore.
I wouldn’t have any problem sleeping at night or living with myself having voted for Carly Fiorina.

Jenfidel on May 25, 2010 at 2:38 AM

Saw the first DeVore ads ever. There were 2 of them during 24. They had Tom McClintock and Huckabee telling people to vote for DeVore. DeVore didn’t appear in either of his ads. Also saw an ad with Mitt Romney, yuck, telling me to vote for Whitman.

El_Terrible on May 25, 2010 at 3:25 AM

kurtzz3 on May 25, 2010 at 1:22 AM

That ad was for Meg Whitman, running for governor, not DeVore.

El_Terrible on May 25, 2010 at 3:26 AM

First and foremost, this is a Sarah Palin bump, Allah’s fake quandary notwithstanding. Secondly, Tom Campbell is known mostly as a republican who base of support has always been mostly democrats, which I find interesting. It must be said that he is also a very affable and smart person, He is a university elite type, and is currently the Dean of the Haas School of Business at Berkeley. Obviously, he is not a conservative by any stretch. I don’t believe that DeVore ever considered himself as a serious opponent to Boxer. I believe that he just wanted to start the attacks on her and hoped for someone else to pick up the fight, and if this poll can be confirmed by another reputable firm, I think he might endorse Fiorina. Even if he did win the primary he would be buried in the general. HE is the type of opponent Boxer has faced each and every time, and this time would see the same result.

Hazard on May 25, 2010 at 4:12 AM

How does each poll against Barbara Boxer? We have to get this woman out of the Senate!

Dollayo on May 25, 2010 at 4:38 AM

The best the Republicans can do in CA is a narcissistic RINO. You take what you can get, even though you KNOW there will be a critical vote in the future where those that join with the Dems will be Snowe, Collins, Graham, Brown, McCain and Fiorina. You know, all the RNCs favorites.

CC

CapedConservative on May 25, 2010 at 7:09 AM

Mark Levin on CA and NV GOP races.

fred5678 on May 25, 2010 at 7:11 AM

Mark Levin on CA and NV GOP races.

fred5678 on May 25, 2010 at 7:11 AM

I love Mark Levin, but he’s for Devore in CA and Angle in NV.
There are 2 other good GOP candidates running in NV: Sue Lowden and Danny Tarkanian.
All 3–Angle, Lowden and Tarkanian–show in polls that any one of them can beat Reid.
I think I’ve made my feelings known about Fiorina.
She’s just as Conservative as Devore and is no RINO.

Chuck Devore cannot poll higher than the teen’s against Carly and Campbell and this is after months and months of trying.
He’s going to end up being the last of the 3 candidates again and the loser of the GOP primary.

Jenfidel on May 25, 2010 at 7:33 AM

You know, all the RNCs favorites.

CC

CapedConservative on May 25, 2010 at 7:09 AM

Who pays attention to the RNC?
And they *do* do some things right occasionally.
Most of us are giving to individual races these days and I believe that the RNC is staying out of the GOP primaries, especially given their debacle in FL with Crist.

Jenfidel on May 25, 2010 at 7:36 AM

I love Levin too and I heard DeVore on his show the other night. However, if DeVore is going to do any better, he better come up with something and quick.

ted c on May 25, 2010 at 7:45 AM

First let me say up front I did not appreciate Fiorina’s comment that she made about Palin, that she would never hire her for her own corporation.

And I do not particularly like the idea that she is so closely associated with John McCain and Meg Whitman.

And I wish Carly had more political experience rather than being a political neophyte.

If I were living in California I would want to vote for a conservative. I would therefore not vote for Campbell. That is a certainty. So that leaves Devore and Fiorina.

I have no doubt that Devore is a conservative. But let’s be up front and not BS about this one possibility–if the GOP takes Boxer’s seat there is a slight chance that the GOP after November not only will control the House but also the Senate thus forcing Obama into a gridlock situation and with our side controlling the pursestrings we might be able to defund the various provisions of Obamacare.

So we owe it to ourselves to nominate a conservative to go up against Boxer who has the best chance to win in November.

Now for you folks who say Fiorina ia NOT a conservative, when you are endorsed by pro-life groups and the NRA and Sarah Palin that definitely does NOT make you a RINO. Is Fiorina as conservative as Jim Demint, Paul Ryan, or Michele Bachmann? No, I honestly don’t think so. But is Fiorina a RINO? Not based on her endorsements she’s not. Where I believe she falls in is somewhere in between being a RINO and a full 3 legged conservative.

So if I were living in California and had a choice between DeVore who has virtually no chance of winning the GOP primary and Fiorina who does I would reluctantly go with Carly. 3/4 of a loaf is better than none at all.

And finally if you are a Palinista, look at all of Palin’s endorsements and how well they have done. Do you have any reason to doubt Sarah’s judgment. And I would suggest if you do to go back and read her Facebook post to why she is primarily supporting Fiorina-to stop the RINO (Campbell) from winning and to provide Californians a conservative alternative in November.

Obviously by this poll many GOP California conservative primary voters are thinking the same way. They don’t want Campbell but they are slowly coming around to the conclusion based on several polls over several months that DeVore cannot win the GOP primary on June 8th, having stagnated at around 15%. It is what it is.

technopeasant on May 25, 2010 at 7:59 AM

Ah, the McClintock Republicans…..

“In all of Human History, never have so Few mattered So Little For So Long….”

Look, Chuck DeVore is a good guy. But this poll puts the kibosh on the young lad. Were I him, I would sit down and start to make plans for my House Race in 2012 and see if I could get Carly’s support (and Palin’s) in return for a pullout and an endorsement.

Staying in now helps Tom Campbell, the RINO Caucus, and Box O’ Rocks.

Chuck DeVore has a big future. Especially when the California Gravy Train collapses and everything that he and McClintock has been saying comes true with a Righteous Angry Jesus Vengeance.

Just not this year.

victor82 on May 25, 2010 at 8:27 AM

And finally if you are a Palinista, look at all of Palin’s endorsements and how well they have done. Do you have any reason to doubt Sarah’s judgment.
technopeasant on May 25, 2010 at 7:59 AM

I couldn’t disagree more. Do you really think Palin is making these calls? I highly doubt it. Look up her advisors, they are Bush and McCain people. I give Palin 3 strikes based on her endorcements: McCain, corrupt Rick Perry and now Carly.

njpat on May 25, 2010 at 8:50 AM

I just sent in my ballet. I am going with Devore…might as well go down with a fight then jump to Carly.

jbh45 on May 25, 2010 at 8:52 AM

Do you really think Palin is making these calls?

Yes, I do and I don’t even doubt it.
If you read Sarah’s Facebook Notes and listen to her speeches that she’s been giving around the country, she doesn’t let anyone speak for her or “make her calls.”

Look up her advisors, they are Bush and McCain people.

No.
Palin’s never used Bush’s people.
As for McCain’s crew, she left them when the 2008 campaign was over.
Sarah’s got her own people, many of whom worked with her when she was Governor.

I give Palin 3 strikes based on her endorcements: McCain, corrupt Rick Perry and now Carly.

njpat on May 25, 2010 at 8:50 AM

I live in TX and I don’t find Rick Perry corrupt and will happily vote for him again as Governor.
Carly’s a Conservative–ask around. Look at her platform.
As for McCain, we all know that Palin endorsement was about.
If you expected her to back J.D. Hayworth after being McCain’s running mate, you’re dumber than you sound already!

Jenfidel on May 25, 2010 at 8:59 AM

njpat on May 25, 2010 at 8:50 AM

Yea, Palin just throws darts at a dart board or consults her ouija board to determine who she is going to endorse. /sarc

I guess you must have missed her recent interview on Fox Business News in which she said that she “vets” everybody she endorses. Are you calling Palin a liar?

And if Palin is in bed with McCain and Bush as you say why has she not endorsed Marco Rubio and why did she endorse Rand Paul and Rick Perry and go against the entire GOP establishment in doing so?

Facts are stubborn things, my friend.

technopeasant on May 25, 2010 at 9:02 AM

Can’t be Sarah, No,No,No,No……….Yes it is, Yes, Yes, Yes

Herb on May 25, 2010 at 9:15 AM

SurveyUSA interviewed 2,700 California adults 05/21/10 through 05/23/10. Of them, 2,311 were registered to vote. Of the registered voters, 612 were determined by SurveyUSA to be likely to vote in the 06/08/10 Republican Primary; 716 were determined to be likely to vote in the 06/08/10 Democratic primary. Early voting began two weeks ago, 05/10/10.

I’m wondering if this poll is an outlier. Out of the registered voters interviewed, only 1,328 were considered likely to vote in either primary, which is 57.5% of the registered voters. While 57.5% would be excellent turnout for a primary, is the “likely voter” filter screening out TOO many “squishy” voters who might be supporting other candidates besides Fiorina?

Another question: if Campbell was running ahead on May 6-9, and early voting started on May 10, could Campbell have “run the table” on early voters, and those who haven’t voted yet are more for Fiorina, meaning that when ALL the votes are counted, Fiorina and Campbell would be close to tied?

I agree with lots of posters up-thread–if Campbell is too liberal, and DeVore can’t get out of the teens in his own party, California Republicans may need to be pragmatic and support Fiorina, as the somewhat conservative candidate who CAN beat Boxer.

Steve Z on May 25, 2010 at 10:20 AM

Hey Allah,

Your assessment that a boost should be immediate is not defendable. I think people are so fed up with politics they have been ignoring the mess. It stinks so bad most people cannot stomach how things are playing out. That means we should not see immediate responses but more gradual ones. As we head into another summer of madness, people are beginning to realize the only way forward is to dump the professional pols and go to the phone book.

AJStrata on May 25, 2010 at 10:36 AM

Normal polling logic was skewed because Governor Palin endorsed Fiorina over the true conservative DeVore. If she had endorsed DeVore then we wouldn’t all be scratching our heads. This is the same reason that McCain is leading over Hayworth.

scrubjay on May 25, 2010 at 11:00 AM

Normal polling logic was skewed because Governor Palin endorsed Fiorina over the true conservative DeVore.

Fiorina is as much a “true conservative” as Devore.
Truth to tell, she’s more strongly pro-Life than he is.

This is the same reason that McCain is leading over Hayworth.

scrubjay on May 25, 2010 at 11:00 AM

McCain’s also leading because he’s popular in AZ, he was our presidential nominee, and J.D. Hayworth doesn’t exactly come without baggage of his own (and it’s not Louis Vuitton baggage, either!).

Jenfidel on May 25, 2010 at 11:09 AM

Simple math -> If Fiorina wins, then Boxer wins, and California loses.

Is this the change we were looking for?

Pablo Snooze on May 25, 2010 at 11:26 AM

Jenfidel on May 25, 2010 at 8:59 AM

Absolutely right. Her endorsements are a mixture of principle, personal affection and good politics. No one has proved braver or smarter in their endorsements.

rrpjr on May 25, 2010 at 11:27 AM

No surprise here. Her ads just began in my area (Southern Calif) last week.

She just talks about the main issues in her ads without any attacks against her Republican opposition. She is focused on the issues and has Boxer in her sights (oops, can I say that?)

In fact, so far, the Republican side of the senate primary has been very clean so far …. unlike the race for the governor’s office.

gstrickler on May 25, 2010 at 11:49 AM

This is excellent news. Campbell is dangerous because he would add an eloquent, respectable voice to the Republicans who love jihadis contingent. Darrel Issa is enough. It’s bad enough that the Democrats won’t get serious about the people trying to murder us. We can’t afford a Republican Party that doesn’t take terrorism seriously.

thuja on May 25, 2010 at 12:08 PM

Simple math -> If Fiorina wins, then Boxer wins, and California loses.

Is this the change we were looking for?

Pablo Snooze on May 25, 2010 at 11:26 AM

Keep snoozing, Pablo!

If Campbell wins, then Boxer wins and CA loses!
Carly can beat Boxer.
Campbell couldn’t and shouldn’t.
That’s the change CA and the country need in the Senate!

Jenfidel on May 25, 2010 at 12:12 PM

Haven’t seen a single DeVore or Campbell commercial yet…

rightheaded on May 24, 2010 at 9:36 PM

I’m in NorCal, the conservative bastion of California, and there have been NO commercials from anyone other than Fiorina. Her commercials are not attack ads. They come off as calm, concise and informed. People are going to buy into that after watching months and months of Whitman and Poizner attack each other without ever mentioning their own position on the issues.

speed911 on May 25, 2010 at 12:33 AM

My experience in OC as well.

peski on May 25, 2010 at 12:34 PM

ROFL,,,,,,Allah still does not want to understand or give voice to the power of Palin even in CA.

unseen on May 25, 2010 at 12:36 PM

Look, Chuck DeVore is a good guy. But this poll puts the kibosh on the young lad. Were I him, I would sit down and start to make plans for my House Race in 2012 and see if I could get Carly’s support (and Palin’s) in return for a pullout and an endorsement.

Staying in now helps Tom Campbell, the RINO Caucus, and Box O’ Rocks.

Chuck DeVore has a big future. Especially when the California Gravy Train collapses and everything that he and McClintock has been saying comes true with a Righteous Angry Jesus Vengeance.

Just not this year.

victor82 on May 25, 2010 at 8:27 AM

Unfortunately, I agree.

peski on May 25, 2010 at 12:36 PM

Just got this in an email blast from DeVore:

Two weeks from today, Californians will head to the polls and decide the fate of the U.S. Senate Republican primary race.
A new poll shows that this race is tightening in dramatic fashion.
DeVore for California today released the results of a campaign poll undertaken by Adam Geller of National Research, Inc. The poll, conducted among likely voters on May 19th and 20th, with a margin of error of +/-5%, revealed the following candidate standings in the Republican race for the nomination to face Barbara Boxer in November:

Fiorina 28%
Campbell 26%
DeVore 19%

According to this poll, all three Republicans are well within one anothers’ margin of error, and the spread between first and last place is in single digits. These results are broadly consonant with most of the major polls of this month, and in particular the PPIC poll conducted from May 9th through 16th.

The two polls that break dramatically from this consensus of data are the Research2000 poll of May 17th through 19th, which showed Tom Campbell with an improbable high of 37%; and the SurveyUSA poll released today, which shows Carly Fiorina with an unlikely 46%. The latter is especially dubious — a gain of 22% in two weeks from the prior SurveyUSA effort — given the likely conduct of the poll over a weekend with SurveyUSA’s usual reliance upon random-digit dialing, neither of which lend themselves to accurate results.

Joshua Treviño, DeVore for California communications director, said, “The bottom line, from our perspective, is that this race remains tight and volatile — and Chuck DeVore continues his inexorable march upward in the numbers. Campbell’s people will tout his stellar showing in the recent R2K poll, and Fiorina’s people will tout her ludicrously inflated figure in SurveyUSA. Both these polls cannot be right, of course. A sober and rational assessment of this race and its polls points toward the real state of this race: the two front-runners have long since plateaued, and Chuck DeVore is rushing upward to parity — and then to victory.”

peski on May 25, 2010 at 12:52 PM

Simple math -> If Fiorina wins, then Boxer wins, and California loses.

Is this the change we were looking for?

Pablo Snooze on May 25, 2010 at 11:26 AM

Pablo … what planet are you from? Are you implying that DeVore or Campbell can beat Boxer? How long have you lived in California?

Campbell is an academic. We need someone in Washington with REAL world experience. Campbell has none. DeVore is a great guy but not THIS race at THIS time. He is not the guy for a state wide election.

California has changed a lot since Regan was governor. There is practically no defense industry left here compared with what we had back then. The place that used to manufacture Bradley fighting vehicles in San Jose is, I believe, an In-And-Out burger joint (the old FMC operation). The aircraft manufacturing along the 91 freeway in Southern California was bulldozed (literally, I watched it every day going to work in the early 1990′s) 20 years ago. There is no shipyard in San Francisco, no Army base in Oakland, there is no Presidio in San Francisco, or Ft. Baker or Ft. Ord or El Toro MCAS. In fact, we look at better odds than in decades of war breaking out in Korea and there is practically no military at all on the West Coast.

A “true conservative” can’t win a statewide election. In fact, if Proposition 14 passes, we probably won’t even see any Republicans in statewide elections anymore. The two candidates who get the most primary votes will run in the general regardless of party. So the two top Democrats will face off in the general election.

Unless you actually live here, everything you know about California politics is probably wrong or outdated.

crosspatch on May 25, 2010 at 1:02 PM

Just got this in an email blast from DeVore:blah blah blah
peski on May 25, 2010 at 12:52 PM

I’d been getting email blasts from Devore for months until finally I couldn’t take it anymore and unsubscribed.

The man is kind of pathetic.

Jenfidel on May 25, 2010 at 1:03 PM

maybe Cali wants a business exec who wont raise taxes
did everyone see this clip?
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=GnhNjv7YVJA

she says her core principle is no new taxes, and ps she wants to turn the damned water back on!

ginaswo on May 25, 2010 at 1:38 PM

Simple math -> If Fiorina wins, then Boxer wins, and California loses.

Is this the change we were looking for?

Pablo Snooze on May 25, 2010 at 11:26 AM

Yep, this is exactly how the Democratic establishment sees it. They think Cambell is centrist enough (and not divisive) to take the general, but see Fiorina as quite beatable, more so than Cambell.

okonkolo on May 25, 2010 at 1:58 PM

“but see Fiorina as quite beatable, more so than Cambell.”

Which, of course, is why Fiorina beats the pants off of Campbell in every single poll. Riiiiight.

crosspatch on May 25, 2010 at 2:15 PM

But again, if Prop 14 passes, there won’t be any Republicans in state-wide elections anymore so the point is probably moot after this election. Prop 14 is currently polling quite favorably.

crosspatch on May 25, 2010 at 2:16 PM

The real fun will begin once Jerry “the job killer” Brown is re elected. He was a bit before my time, but I hear he was responsible for unionizing the place and effectively halting infrastructure development for a state that was known for its freeway system.

But at least we can count on Jerry to block incoming illegals from Arizona, who’ll be looking for a new sanctuary state. He’ll definitely oppose any attempts to rename the state “New Aztlan”. (snickers)

DO NOT underestimate California’s bold willingness to elect clowns. Before LA’s mayor destroyed his marriage by chasing two female reporters, he destroyed the city by hiring thousands of city workers despite warnings from people with brains still intact. Fabian Nunez blew tax payer money on fine wines during trips to France, and his son was recently convicted for murder. Richard Alarcon is proposing a freeze on rent hike fee.

Don’t forget – SF and LA are started the AZ boycott wave. We’re trendsetters here.

Mad Kimchi on May 25, 2010 at 3:23 PM

New PPP poll for California GOP Senate primary:

Fiorina: 41%
Campbell: 21%
DeVore: 16%
Others: 4%
Undecided: 18%

Among CONSERVATIVES, surprisingly Fiorina is at 47%, Campbell at 15% and DeVore only at 19%.

technopeasant on May 25, 2010 at 3:39 PM

This race is over.
GO CARLY.

Falz on May 25, 2010 at 5:05 PM

Fiorina and Napolitano should have an ugly run off. I don’t know who’s scarier.

paulsur on May 25, 2010 at 5:43 PM

Personally, I chalk it all up to the oversampling of:

DEMON SHEEP!!!

JohnGalt23 on May 25, 2010 at 5:45 PM

Fiorina and Napolitano should have an ugly run off. I don’t know who’s scarier.

paulsur on May 25, 2010 at 5:43 PM

Fiorina’s recovering from cancer treatment which is why her hair is the way it is.
She’s actually a very attractive woman.
Check out pictures of her when she was younger.

Jenfidel on May 25, 2010 at 5:46 PM

Whoa- Fiorina supported Prop 26 in 2000, which would have gutted prop 13, then she didn’t even vote in that election!
DEVORE is the only way I can vote now. Prop 13 is my litmus test.

Carly Fiorina directly attacked a cornerstone of California’s conservative movement — and one of the few institutional protections California’s property owners enjoy. In short, she attacked Proposition 13. And there’s proof.

Below, I’m appending a rather interesting little op-ed from the March 2nd, 2000, San Jose Mercury-News. It’s by one Carly Fiorina and John Doerr (then as now a venture capitalist and partner at Kleiner Perkins Caufield & Byers), and it enthusiastically endorses California’s Proposition 26 of 2000.

What was 2000′s California Proposition 26? In brief, it was an attack on the provisions of California’s historic 1978 Proposition 13, which capped property taxes at 1% of the value of a property. Under Proposition 13, local governments may enact special taxes exceeding the 1% limit with a two-thirds-majority vote of the populace. Proposition 26 in 2000 would have fatally weakened 1978′s Proposition 13, by lowering the two-thirds requirement for local special taxes to a simple majority for education-related purposes.

In short, Proposition 26 would have ended Proposition 13 as a meaningful protection for California’s over-taxed homeowners. That’s why the Howard Jarvis Taxpayer Association, which has endorsed Chuck DeVore, fought successfully to defeat it at the polls.

And that’s why Carly Fiorina — an instinctive liberal in nearly every instance before the present election campaign — supported it.

Carly Fiorina will have a tough time explaining why she joined in a fight to overturn Prop. 13 in the final two weeks of this campaign. But Republican voters must know that when the time came to defend one of the signal accomplishments of modern conservatism in California, she stood on the other side.

Oh, and the punchline to all this? She didn’t even vote in that election.

All the best,
Joshua Treviño

NTWR on May 25, 2010 at 6:54 PM

Received mailer from the Fiorina camp today. She is not running away from Sarah Palin. She’s got two pictures of Palin on it along with quotes from her facebook endorsement. I think that takes guts to do. We are in California.

El_Terrible on May 25, 2010 at 6:57 PM

And this is the nail in the coffin of my Tom Campbell vote. If he wins the primary I may not even vote for him in the general. Way too many connections.

NTWR on May 25, 2010 at 7:04 PM

Fiorina is the only one who can beat Boxer. De Vore doesn’t stand a chance, and Campbell is too much like Boxer, so why on earth the Dems in Cali would vote for a Republican progressive when they can simply vote for a Dem progressive…duh! as for the independents, Fiorina is the only one that can appeal to them too…de Vore is too ‘conservative’ (hard core that is) to be voted massively by independents in California, and Campbell is loathed by conservatives and despised by independents and the Dems alike…so, do your math, the only one that has a chance to beat Boxer is Fiorina!

and btw, I live in Sacramento and I have yet to see an ad for De Vore…the only time I saw the guy’s face was on Glenn Beck once and probably another show (some national TV show, not local)! so, he’s virtually uknown. While I don’t think there’s any serious person around (adult and likely voter) who doesn’t not respond to Carly Fiorina’s name…and

jimver on May 25, 2010 at 7:59 PM

BAAAAAAAAAAD news for Tom Campbell.

RINO in Name Only on May 25, 2010 at 11:30 PM

I’m happy for her. She’s really an interesting and new political character.

I don’t think it’s Palin as Palin, but it’s more like Palin as new and fresh and ditto for Carly.

AnninCA on May 26, 2010 at 1:23 AM

I will never vote for a RINO lik Fiorina. I’ll just end up doing what I’ve done for too many years and not vote for Senetor.

opusrex on May 26, 2010 at 12:19 PM

If any of you actually believe She has a snowballs chance in hell of beating Boxer, I want some of whatever it is you’re smoking.

Erock on May 26, 2010 at 2:29 PM

AnninCA on May 26, 2010 at 1:23 AM

The fact that this person likes her should give you and indication of the type of politician she will be.

It’s over. Dennis Prager just endorsed this woman. I’m still voting for DeVore and Fiorina will lose against Boxer so it’s done. California will continue down it’s path of self destruction. Once it’s done, people will no longer call someone with views like DeVore “HARD CORE”. It is mindboggling to me. How are his views any different or hard core than 95% of Republicans currently in office. You only say that because it’s California. With that said, Simi Valley would be the most hated place on the planet. So would Yorba Linda for that matter. They aren’t. And people aren’t looking to Santa Monica or San Francisco for their City Councils policy on economic or social reform. It’s insane the thought process. But whatever.

Sultry Beauty on May 26, 2010 at 3:31 PM

If any of you actually believe She has a snowballs chance in hell of beating Boxer, I want some of whatever it is you’re smoking.

Erock

or maybe we can exchange :-) subtances that is :-) yours seem way more effective, whatever they may be :-) joking aside, are you serious? have you seen Boxer’s approval rates and how she polls comparatively to all three conservative candidates? Fiorina has plenty chances to beat her. if some of the conservative persuasion actually decide to stay home and simply not vote for her coz she des not pass the conservative purists’ test :-), then fine, they do it at their own peril…after all they will have plenty of time and opportunities to spam these forums over the next 4 years with their constant whining about the dems and their terrible progressivism, blah, blah, blah while footing the Dem bills :-) only the Dems might tax them out of their houses and then they’ll decide if staying at home on election day was such a great idea…

here:
http://www.latimes.com/news/local/la-me-budget-taxes-20100526,0,6976675.story

and here:
http://dailycaller.com/2010/05/26/will-california-be-our-greece/

BTW, I hope you’re not saying that De Vore has actually more chances than Fiorina to beat Babs :-)….coz that would be a really outlandish analysis, completely divorced from reality :-)

jimver on May 26, 2010 at 6:50 PM

Dennis Prager endorsed Carly Fiorina today.

technopeasant on May 26, 2010 at 7:49 PM

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