Obama to military commanders: Get ready in case North Korea makes a move
posted at 4:10 pm on May 24, 2010 by Allahpundit
Nothing’s happened yet but something big could happen soon, so let’s get a post up to make sure we’re all on the same page. Remember in March when that South Korean ship exploded, killing 46 sailors on board? It was no mystery who did it, but not until this past week did U.S. intelligence conclude that the orders to sink it came straight from the top.
The officials said they were increasingly convinced that Mr. Kim ordered the sinking of the ship, the Cheonan, to help secure the succession of his youngest son.
“We can’t say it is established fact,” said one senior American official who was involved in the highly classified assessment, based on information collected by many of the country’s 16 intelligence agencies. “But there is very little doubt, based on what we know about the current state of the North Korean leadership and the military.”…
Under the leading theory of the American intelligence agencies, Mr. Kim ordered the attack to re-establish both his control and his credentials after a debilitating stroke two years ago, and by extension reinforcing his right to name his son Kim Jong-un as his successor…
Victor Cha, a North Korea expert at the Center for Strategic and International Studies in Washington and a former official in the National Security Council during President George W. Bush’s second term in office, noted that when Mr. Kim was on the rise three decades ago, “there were similar incidents designed to build his credibility” as a leader.
They leaked the analysis over the weekend because Hillary and a bunch of other cabinet officials are in China today and of course will use the report to pressure Beijing to rein Kim in before he does something so nutty that South Korea has no choice but to respond. The first step is a Security Council condemnation, which China will be asked to join. The next step? Well, according to South Korea’s president, they’re changing their military posture from “passive defense” to … “proactive deterrence.” Via Business Insider, gird your loins:
“If our territorial waters, airspace or territory are militarily violated, we will immediately exercise our right of self-defense,” Lee said in an address to the nation, televised live Monday morning.
“From this moment, no North Korean ship will be allowed to make passage through any of the shipping lanes in the waters under our control, which has been allowed by the Inter-Korean Agreement on Maritime Transportation,” Lee said. “The sea routes meant for inter-Korean exchanges and cooperation must never again be used for armed provocations.”…
“Trade and exchanges between the Republic of Korea and North Korea will also be suspended,” Lee said.
“However, we will continue to provide assistance for infants and children,” he said. “Matters pertaining to the Kaesong Industrial Complex will be duly considered, taking its unique characteristics into consideration.”
They’re also promising to install loudspeakers at the border to blast anti-Kim propaganda, a tactic they’re used in the past; North Korea says if they do it, they’ll open fire. I’m not too worried yet, as the fact that SK is promising to continue humanitarian aid at least creates some space for de-escalation, but offhand I can’t recall a moment in recent years where the cold peace on the peninsula has been this fragile. Somewhat to my surprise, not only is Obama offering “unequivocal” support for South Korea’s defense, he’s rattling the saber by ordering U.S. commanders in Korea to “ensure readiness” and authorizing joint naval exercises with SK in the “near future.” The calculus, of course, is that a show of force will concentrate Kim’s mind on the price of further escalation, which … is not what would I have expected from Hopenchange circa 2008. Circa 2009, though? Hmmmm.
If, god forbid, this thing does escalate further, it’ll be an explosive test of where the left and right now stand vis-a-vis America as guarantor of its allies’ security. The U.S. military presence in Seoul is tolerated back here because it’s a low-cost way of deterring a very high-cost confrontation, but if deterrence finally breaks down and this thing turns hot, how will the public cope with American casualties? Will Democrats stand behind The One? Will the isolationist/Paul wing on the right push the GOP into opposing him?
Blowback
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I agree, but to be fair we have the ability of hindsight. Sure, he should have known better, but … on the other hand, it was a heavy decision either way to make.
freeus on May 24, 2010 at 5:05 PM
A friend of mine who was in the airborne says that at one point they were suited up and ready to go at one point in the early 90′s. The briefing they received was to conserve ammunition as much as possible, the assumption being that they would face waves of civilians with pitchforks (or nothing) prior to the advancement of the actual military, to use up their ammo. My friend recalled thinking he was going to die on the end of a stick after shooting countless civilians.
TexasDan on May 24, 2010 at 5:06 PM
And that too! But, history tells us we will wind up taking the blunt of any war btwn them. Funny thing the original N Korean attack on the South was 6/25
xler8bmw on May 24, 2010 at 5:07 PM
Hey sima-donna rage boy, don’t go startin’ no jihad.
TheSitRep on May 24, 2010 at 5:09 PM
Get ready to do what? Send more troops into harms way, but tie their hands so that they can’t fight, even after fired upon?
PappaMac on May 24, 2010 at 5:11 PM
AP, “Wolf, wolf!” X 10 to the 23rd
The intel behind Kim’s command: I’m dying and my dynasty must continue. Got to show an action so my flunkies will fear me. SoKo has never responded in the past so they are the target.
Once again, folks, wait and see what Seoul does. America has two wars and a coup d’etat going. Me, I am preparing for October. (Not a mistake; Oct. does come before Nov.)
Caststeel on May 24, 2010 at 5:11 PM
They also have the entire DMZ lined with artillery aimed at downtown Seoul. They could probably destroy most of the city in a couple of hours.
RedWinged Blackbird on May 24, 2010 at 5:12 PM
I’m sorry, but did I miss something?
Since when did the GOP become the anti-military party?
You ask whether or not the GOP will support the protection of South Korea in the event of attack from the North? Are you serious?
I know there are no Islamic Extremists (assuming we’re allowed to admit they exist) involved, only Communists, so BHO might be a little confused at first as to which side he’s supposed to be on but, once he figures it out, I suggest the party least likely to tolerate fighting and casualties is his own, not the loyal opposition.
Check your med’s.
IndieDogg on May 24, 2010 at 5:15 PM
South Korean europussies
I guessthey will live with this as when they lived with the dear leaders father when his operatives took down two sth kor civilian jets killing hundreds
yep
no need to get to crazy after all
Sonosam on May 24, 2010 at 5:17 PM
what did Sam Kinison and Rodney Dangerfield say in back to school, Oh yeah, this.
rob verdi on May 24, 2010 at 5:17 PM
Yeah, Kim holds Seoul hostage with a threat of artillery bombardment. I think American counterbattery technology would destroy their stuff quickly, so that Seoul wouldn’t be subject to hours of bombing. But who wants to take that chance?
joeindc44 on May 24, 2010 at 5:18 PM
The mother of all wars…haven’t we heard that before?
The NK know they will lose more then people, they will lose their military…they will push to the very edge, China steps in and tells them to sit down and behave.
Raptors, Warthogs, Heli’s, drones, sophisticated firepower…the losses would be tremendous, but the biggest loss would be to the NK, and China will not accept that.
You know our satellites have been re-aligned, we are watching every move, we will be ready with the firepower.
I still have confidence in our military leaders, and I think Obama has learned enough to stay out of the way in adults need to make decisions.
After a few weeks he my waffle, but the first couple of weeks will be a “generals” war, and I have faith our military will not let us down.
right2bright on May 24, 2010 at 5:19 PM
Don’t forget The Manchurian Candidate was based on Korean War……..HHHHMMMM isn’t Obama the Manchurian Candidate
xler8bmw on May 24, 2010 at 5:19 PM
Last I heard NK has over a 1,000,000 man army, we have 35,000 and the ROK 550,000. We ar4e over taxed and ther is simply no reinforcements to send other than whatever is left of the 9th ID thats not deployed already and is still at Ft.Lewis.
This is very deep do-do here folks.
Archimedes on May 24, 2010 at 4:43 PM
They also have the entire DMZ lined with artillery aimed at downtown Seoul. They could probably destroy most of the city in a couple of hours.
RedWinged Blackbird on May 24, 2010 at 5:12 PM
Bet we could render all of it molten metal in half the time
Sonosam on May 24, 2010 at 5:19 PM
After the first Gulf War, a top Russian military leader said to one of ours…”We never knew you had that technology”…so it is with most of us.
I have faith in our military, not our politicians, but our military.
right2bright on May 24, 2010 at 5:21 PM
He is the mansourian candidate
macncheez on May 24, 2010 at 5:24 PM
WIN!
Yakko77 on May 24, 2010 at 5:26 PM
The SK Army will have to do the vast majority of the ground fighting. I’m pretty sure they’re well equipped and trained but quantity does have a quality all its own which favors the NK military but I’m reasonably sure the technical edge we possess would win out in the end. Also, I tend to think most our support will come in naval and air form.
Yakko77 on May 24, 2010 at 5:30 PM
The South Korean military man is one bad mofo. I do not believe that China will allow it to get to the shooting stage. Kim Jung Il and family just may wake up one morning…dead!
If there is war and the politicians stay out of it we and the South would kick their butts. If China feels threatened, however, like they did during the Korean war, then all bets are off!
Vince on May 24, 2010 at 5:31 PM
look snot rocket. You have never been in the military. I know you didn’t study on WWII. We didn’t ENTER WWII we were MADE to enter it via the japanese. It WAS pre-emptive that we use the bomb. But HTH would you know? You are a child.
Why hasn’t Russia dropped not one on us? Why didn’t Reagan not drop one of the USSR? Why didn’t Pakistan not drop one on India?
Do you know the answer?
upinak on May 24, 2010 at 5:43 PM
jaime:
If we pulled out right now, it would look like weakness.
But yeah, I also want us to close our base there as soon as possible. I know it’s a strategic location, but still. South Korea is rich enough to defend itself. We lost a river of American blood saving them the first time, and they spit in our faces for it. They’re not allies in any meaningful sense.
sandberg on May 24, 2010 at 5:44 PM
If this is the case, let’s hope he keeps his thumb in his mouth and his blankie at hand and continues to do what he’s told.
I’m no-way, no-how in any way an expert in military affairs…but it chur seems to me that if we’d take the political correct b.s. out of the rules of engagement, we might just, um, kill us some jihadists.
If (God forbid)we do get into a conflict with NK, we better give our soldiers whatever they need to kick a** and take names, not tell them they have to “Play nice” with the slime that is trying to kill them.
Chewy the Lab on May 24, 2010 at 5:49 PM
See, Rumsfeld would have put up another picture of the pot belly’s house. He might have made it clear that the first strike from the US was going to be right there. But, gosh, Obama already told the world we won’t use nukes on anyone who doesn’t use nukes on us. So, what’s to stop the north? With China right behind them?
Whatever Obama does to respond to NK, it will have nothing to do with protecting allies, upholding treaties or protecting American interests. It will be centered on the following. Nothing more and nothing less.
1. Maintaining Democrat control of congress.
2. Expanding Executive powers.
3. Restricting more American freedoms of speech, gun rights and protests.
4. Ensuring his victory in the next election and remaining in office as long after that as possible.
5. Increasing his own personal wealth. (I am still convinced Obama has transferred money to Swiss accounts. Of course I have no proof of this. Pure speculation on my part. But we all know Libs do what they accuse others of doing, and right after Obama took office, he began attacking Swiss banks all while about a billion dollars of the bailout disappeared. Like I said, my own pure speculation based on nothing but my own paranoid delusions.)
JellyToast on May 24, 2010 at 5:51 PM
N Korea cannot successfully invade S Korea. However, a majority of the S Korean population lives within a half hour from the border, including most of the U.S. presence.
Even a brief conflict would be bloody, with massive casualties on our side. We basically have thousands of soldiers acting as a trip wire.
BadgerHawk on May 24, 2010 at 5:52 PM
“Snot Rocket!” Good one, Sista!
Chewy the Lab on May 24, 2010 at 5:54 PM
I hope so. Keep in mind the terrain of the Korean Peninsula is very rugged and mountainous, not mostly flat and open like the deserts of the Middle East.
Yakko77 on May 24, 2010 at 5:56 PM
If NK ever goes stupid and attacks, the SKs immediately blow all the bridges on the Han River (they’ve been wired since the ’60s) to keep the North from having easy access to the center of the Peninsular.
It’s been in the plans since the 50’s and just about every invasion scenario for the past 50 years assumes the North will get at least to the Han river regardless of the defenses thrown up. Seoul is close enough to the DMZ that a kid with a slingshot can hit Seoul from there.
That’s why successive administrations have left those G.I.s on the DMZ; it might sound cynical but they were always meant to be a large enough “trip wire” that their deaths and captures would ensure an overwhelming military response from the United States.
And avoiding that response was one of the reasons the North has stayed North of the DMZ.
And that was all well and fine in the 50′s and 60′s.
Starting in the 70′s and up into today, we started letting families accompany those G.I.s and today we have between 100,000 – 250,000 American citizens there, mostly living north of the Han River.
All the airports and major evacuation routes are south of the Han River. In the event the North launches a artillery and ground attacks the toll of American civilian deaths (20-30,000?) not even counting the G.I.s would be so large and so grievous I fear that any president would be hard pressed not to authorize a retaliatory nuclear strike on NK
I believe the strategies of the 50’s and 60’s are no longer valid and I want to pull them out, even to the far south of the Han River. Then that particular “tripwire” is eliminated and brings saner options to the table.
Brinkmanship with the old Soviet Union had rules, if nothing more than a shared respect for human life.
Brinkmanship in this century won’t be so “civilized.”
E9RET on May 24, 2010 at 5:57 PM
I though a large portion if not most were moved away from the DMZ a while back so as to avoid that very outcome.
This S&S story is from 6 years ago so unless something changed from that time to just before this latest crisis….?
Yakko77 on May 24, 2010 at 6:01 PM
With a city full of high-rises on fire, it would be hours or even days after the actual shelling to stop before it seemed like it had finally ended.
pedestrian on May 24, 2010 at 6:01 PM
So we should order an evacuation of families and civilians? Too bad REFORGER went to Europe. I don’t think we have a lot pre-positioned in Korea.
NaCly dog on May 24, 2010 at 6:04 PM
China has far too much at stake here to let this get out of hand.
No matter how many casualties are at risk, China can’t afford for NK to go away, as would surely be the case after a large scale shooting war.
The Peoples Republic’s crisis management is well past the fortune cookie stage, despite their silence.
Little Kim is crazy, but he’s not CRAZY.
ontherocks on May 24, 2010 at 6:14 PM
My son is stationed in ROK. Some of ya’ll are arm-chair quarterbacking in a serious way.
The son of a good friend was just stationed in Guam.
I don’t find any of this discussion “cute” or worthy of childish name calling. Lives are on the line.
ladyingray on May 24, 2010 at 6:19 PM
Having lived here in Korea since 1985, this incident has barely been mentioned amoung my Korean friends and U.S. expats compared to other events over the years. But it certainly has the potential to become a lot worse. And with “Dear Leader”, you just never can tell what might happen. For now at least, life goes on as normal here.
galvestonian on May 24, 2010 at 6:20 PM
I don’t know if this is appropriate to post this here, but I did want to share this, since I can’t email to anyone here. I hope no one minds, but I did find this a strong faith booster in our military. It never dies….
This venerable and much honored WW II vet is well known in Hawaii
for his seventy-plus years of service to patriotic organizations and causes all over the country. A humble man without a political bone in his body, he has never spoken out before about a government official, until now. He dictated this letter to a friend, signed it and mailed it to the president.
Dear President Obama,
My name is Harold Estes, approaching 95 on December 13 of this year. People meeting me for the first time don’t believe my age because I remain wrinkle free and pretty much mentally alert.
I enlisted in the U.S. Navy in 1934 and served proudly before, during and after WW II retiring as a Master Chief Bos’n Mate. Now I live in a “rest home” located on the western end of Pearl Harbor , allowing me to keep alive the memories of 23 years of service to my country.
One of the benefits of my age, perhaps the only one, is to speak my mind, blunt and direct even to the head man.
So here goes.
I am amazed, angry and determined not to see my country die before I do, but you seem hell bent not to grant me that wish.
I can’t figure out what country you are the president of.
You fly around the world telling our friends and enemies despicable lies like:
” We’re no longer a Christian nation”
” America is arrogant” – (Your wife even
announced to the world,” America is mean-
spirited. ” Please tell her to try preaching
that nonsense to 23 generations of our
war dead buried all over the globe who
died for no other reason than to free a
whole lot of strangers from tyranny and
hopelessness.)
I’d say shame on the both of you, but I don’t think you like America, nor do I see an ounce of gratefulness in anything you do, for the obvious gifts this country has given you. To be without shame or gratefulness is a dangerous thing for a man sitting in the White House.
After 9/11 you said,” America hasn’t lived up to her ideals.”
Which ones did you mean? Was it the notion of personal liberty that 11,000 farmers and shopkeepers died for to win independence from the British? Or maybe the ideal that no man should be a slave to another man, that 500,000 men died for in the Civil War? I hope you didn’t mean the ideal 470,000 fathers, brothers, husbands, and a lot of fellas I knew personally died for in WWII, because we felt real strongly about not letting any nation push us around, because we stand for freedom.
I don’t think you mean the ideal that says equality is better than discrimination. You know the one that a whole lot of white people understood when they helped to get you elected.
Take a little advice from a very old geezer, young man.
Shape up and start acting like an American. If you don’t, I’ll do what I can to see you get shipped out of that fancy rental on Pennsylvania Avenue .. You were elected to lead not to bow, apologize and kiss the hands of murderers and corrupt leaders who still treat their people like slaves.
And just who do you think you are telling the American people not to jump to conclusions and condemn that Muslim major who killed 13 of his fellow soldiers and wounded dozens more. You mean you don’t want us to do what you did when that white cop used force to subdue that black college professor in Massachusetts , who was putting up a fight? You don’t mind offending the police calling them stupid but you don’t want us to offend Muslim fanatics by calling them what they are, terrorists.
One more thing. I realize you never served in the military and never had to defend your country with your life, but you’re the Commander-in-Chief now, son. Do your job. When your battle-hardened field General asks you for 40,000 more troops to complete the mission, give them to him. But if you’re not in this fight to win, then get out. The life of one American soldier is not worth the best political strategy you’re thinking of.
You could be our greatest president because you face the greatest challenge ever presented to any president.
You’re not going to restore American greatness by bringing back our bloated economy. That’s not our greatest threat. Losing the heart and soul of who we are as Americans is our big fight now.
And I sure as hell don’t want to think my president is the enemy in this final battle…
Sincerely,
Harold B. Estes
Snopes confirms as true:
http://www.snopes.com/politics/soapbox/haroldestes.asp
When a 95 year old hero of the “the Greatest Generation” stands up and speaks out like this, I think we owe it to him to send his words to as many Americans as we can. Please pass it on.
capejasmine on May 24, 2010 at 6:27 PM
I believe the anti-Americanism in the ROK is a vocal minority. The street demonstrators are university students who unfortunately are influenced by the same progressive propaganda as our American students.
gbear on May 24, 2010 at 6:28 PM
First thing the armchair generals need to realize, that no battle plan is perfect, and no series of plans made before the event can ever address every possibility.
Heavy armored warfare is impossible in Korea. The areas are too mountainous, and too many choke points exist to canalize the forces, thus rendering them very susceptible to attack.
Air power has limits, and deep valleys are one of those limits. It means aircraft have to come in from specific directions, and allows defenders to place anti-air in anticipation of those specific directions.
The North Koreans are constantly tunneling under the DMZ in an effort to increase tactical, and strategic surprise. We’ve found many tunnels, does anyone believe we’ve found them all?
In other words, I don’t believe the cessation of the truce on the Korean Peninsula will be anything like a cakewalk. Our troops will be hip deep in trouble, and most of the estimates I’ve read show expectations of massive retreats. Holding actions near the DMZ to give them time to evacuate as many as possible from the steamroller that the North Koreans intend to send south.
The first round was a draw, we fought to the peace, instead of to the victory. I am reasonably confident that the second round would be a victory, but it would be expensive in material, and most importantly manpower.
Oh, and one final observation. The Republic of Korea sent troops to Viet-Nam to support us there. They sent three divisions starting in the early 1960′s if memory serves.
Snake307 on May 24, 2010 at 6:29 PM
I’d like to believe that, but the outcomes of South Korean elections tends to suggest otherwise.
sandberg on May 24, 2010 at 6:35 PM
Which side will he be supporting?
lonestar1 on May 24, 2010 at 6:45 PM
Even if Obama had the stones to read it, it fell on deaf ears. He loves not the principles and ideals this nation was founded on but rather what he wants to change them into.
Yakko77 on May 24, 2010 at 7:19 PM
Awesome defense of your original position! Sheesh, you’re just such a rhetorical f*cking genius that I guess I’ll just have to stop now. You really put me in my place babe…
Seriously though, you’re wrong and you know it. A-bomb as preemptive attack my @ss. The only time we’ve ever gone anywhere with the expressed goal of preempting a strike or regional breakdown its ended in quagmire. That anyone would recommend that for NK is insane. You seem to feel that we should run right into NK and “preempt” any strikes they may launch. You’re nuts.
ernesto on May 24, 2010 at 7:42 PM
You are of course correct that a preemptive nuke would be insane. But I think we need to reiterate our nuke-for-nuke retaliation policy. I’m guessing that this is bluster from NK, but intentionally sinking a SK ship is already pretty damn crazy. If we’re dealing with irrationality here, and if this crazy guy were to attack the South, then there is no reason to believe he wouldn’t attempt detonating a nuke.
BryanS on May 24, 2010 at 8:25 PM
If the Chinese don’t step in and eliminate this threat, then BOOM might be the solution. Lil’ Kim is not worth the loss of even one of our soldiers.
Philly on May 24, 2010 at 9:31 PM
The real exit question here is, would the NORKs have sunk that ship if Crazy Cowboy Bush was still in office? I don’t know the answer but my guess is that they would have thought a lot longer and harder than they did with paper tiger Obama.
Sailfish on May 24, 2010 at 10:42 PM
Now Sweetie… With thugs in power every crisis is an opportunity. Remember “You never want a serious crisis to go to waste”?
I hope TBP does not use this for political advantage. But I don’t trust these guys. I pray for our troops. However I will support the troops all the time. Again “All the time”.
Don’t be a jackass.
antisocial on May 24, 2010 at 11:44 PM
Thank You for Your Son’s service. I’m not too far from NK myself and I’m fine without censoring other’s speech. That, after all, is a tactic best left to communists.
whiskeytango on May 24, 2010 at 11:53 PM
Glad you`re not worried, Allahpundit. Bet you would be if you lived in South-East Asia (including Japan), let alone the Republic of Korea. And what about China and Taiwan?? Go back and study your history:
The Coldest Winter: America and the Korean War (9781401300524): David Halberstam.
History is not on your side. Trust and verify? Too late for that.
Mistrust and verify? You got it.
We got some Americans on the tip of the spear up the DMZ way and I know the ROK forces can play hardball. Still we have our military right there. The distance between Seoul and Pyongyang is merely 120 miles or so? No major body of water between the two either. Think about it.
Better safe than sorry.
I guess some of our carriers are in the area on standby already.
Sherman1864 on May 25, 2010 at 12:21 AM
And Russia too!
Sherman1864 on May 25, 2010 at 12:21 AM
Kaboom.
hillbillyjim on May 25, 2010 at 12:33 AM
That’s a great post, and an inspired letter from someone who deserves to be heard.
hillbillyjim on May 25, 2010 at 12:37 AM
I have no desire to censor anyone’s speech…but is it too much to ask that topics like this bring about serious discussion, regardless of the view, and not resort to name calling?
ladyingray on May 25, 2010 at 8:02 AM
The pResident’s military action plan:
RETREAT
Exit question: Golly, why, pray tell, does anyone think that the NoKo’s have suddenly become more brazen with the south? Hmmm…
Dick Turpin on May 25, 2010 at 11:03 AM
The next turn of the screw.
AUINSC on May 25, 2010 at 11:06 AM
Somewhat before my time, but during the Suez Crisis in 56, the Brits & the French were launching an invasion of Eqypt to take back the Canal. Eisenhower picked up the phone and told them to go home, a very public demonstration that their days as world powers were over. Because we’re so damn in hock to China, that can happen to us. So I suspect a fight in Korea would be doused pretty quickly, by means of a message from Beijing very similar to the one we sent 54 years ago. As the US pulls out of that end of the Pacific, the pitiful clown in the White House will be permitted to take an bow or two for his “statesmanship”.
dhimwit on May 25, 2010 at 2:08 PM
Will the new medal for not shooting be awarded if there’s no shooting? How does that work again?
Army Brat on May 25, 2010 at 4:29 PM
I’m stationed here in Korea now. I am also married to a Korean. There are some things you (commenters) are not considering.
1. ROK Army: it is a conscript army. that is bad because they are not a volunteer/professional army… but that also means that almost EVERY male in South Korea over their early 20′s has served in the military. quite a large pool of potential reservists.
2. South Koreans as “Europussies”: They are anything but. The ROK Army is brutal to their soldiers. They are acutely aware of the armed agressor to the north. From some personal accounts, the ROKA has been pushing for an “eye for an eye” or more accurately an “both eyes and both ears for an eye” response.
Most South Korean, on the other hand, do not want war. We have to look at it from their prosepctive. Who has the most to lose/gain from a war? Were not talking a low-intensity Counter-insurgency, this would be high-intensity all out warfare we have not seen since the last Korean war. The North can’t get much worse off than they are now, reuniting the peninsula would be a net plus for them… but not much since Korea is not a natural resource rich nation, everything they have is from trade/technology (which would all end). The South has everything to lose and nothing to gain. Win a war (which we would) and now you have a massive welfare state with millions of starving people to take care of… AND you have to rebuild EVERYTHING you have worked the last 60 years to accomplish (ie the thriving modern nation they are today). Seoul would be a scrap heap relatively quickly and millions of people live there. I’m sure jane’s has some open source intel on how the North’s Artillery along the DMZ is fortified. Read “Red Pheonix” by Larry Bond.
BadBrad on May 25, 2010 at 4:42 PM
I hope you don’t mind if I misappropriate that.
JohnGalt23 on May 25, 2010 at 4:56 PM
Perhaps we need to employ a massive preemptive strike along the DMZ to take out as muck of their artillery as possible. If so then we had better be prepared for the NK’s to attack. This will lead to massive casualties and leave a large portion of the peninsula in ruins for some time. The good news is that North Korea will cease to exist, the damage will rebuilt and a unified Korea will finally occur and the Korean War will at last be over after sixty years.
I suspect that every ship and sub that leaves a North Korean port now gets a submerged friend as a shadow. For the subs we should make sure they do not return to port.
Bubba Redneck on May 25, 2010 at 4:59 PM
One thing you all appear to be accepting — which is that it was the N. Koreans that sank that S. Korean naval vessel. In fact what we “know” is that the type of explosion, and the explosive residue, point to a N. Korean sub launched torpedo. But. The N. Koreans have been selling weapons to pretty much anybody who wants to buy them. Who else has submarines and access to the N. Korean torpedoes?
+
Answer: the PRC. The PRC has some very stealthy electric boats, their boats CAN shoot N. Korean torpedoes, and they have access to same. Perhaps in fact the N. Koreans did not do this — the Chinese did.
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Why? Well…for one thing to see how Obama responds. The PRC has no downside on this one. If the Koreans slaughter each other — so what. If we Americans turn our backs and leave the S. Koreans to go hang — that sends a very clear message that it is open season on any American asset anywhere, that all American alliances are null and void. But if we Americans dive in and go to a full shooting war as per treaty — well they get to tie us up with big expenditures, chew up a whole lot of our military, cause massive ammunition expenditure and loss of expensive equipment — for no economic gain. So — from their perspective we lose either way.
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I suspect the PRC.
SunSword on May 25, 2010 at 9:56 PM
Airdrop thousands of vials of dried tissue marked ELVIS’ DNA all over North Korea (labelled in Korean, English, Chinese, Russian and Japanese).
Just to screw with their head psycho.
profitsbeard on May 25, 2010 at 11:11 PM
if this to be, all I ask of my Country is let me have a piece of the action.
Retired Army
Ready, able and willing to serve
jpcpt03 on May 26, 2010 at 2:43 AM
I’m with SunSword. If the PRC didn’t do it, they authorized it for the motives that SunSword has stated. Further, by establishing themselves as the makers and breakers of peace over there, they make the US irrelevant and turn that end of the Pacific into a Chinese lake. Not a damn thing we can do; they own us. Pity about losing Japan, Taiwan and S. Korea but that’s the price we pay for shopping at Walmart.
dhimwit on May 26, 2010 at 10:30 AM
NK is China’s id. Nothing NK does is without orders from China.
Vashta.Nerada on May 26, 2010 at 1:33 PM
preferably no name calling but I think that the guilt trip was abit much
whiskeytango on May 26, 2010 at 6:46 PM
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