Arkansas runoff winner gets chance to be loser: Rasmussen

posted at 1:36 pm on May 21, 2010 by Ed Morrissey

What if Arkansas held a runoff between candidates for the Democratic nomination to the Senate and no one came?  According to the latest Rasmussen poll, that may as well be the outcome of the overtime balloting between incumbent Blanche Lincoln and challenger Bill Halter on June 8th.  The Republican nominee will win six out of ten likely voters in the general election against either opponent:

Arkansas Democrats still have to pick their candidate in a June 8 runoff, but for now Republican John Boozman holds sizable leads over both his potential rivals in the state’s U.S. Senate race.

A new Rasmussen Reports telephone survey of Likely Voters in Arkansas, taken Wednesday night, shows Boozman, the winner of Tuesday’s state GOP Primary, with 66% support in a match-up with Senator Blanche Lincoln. The Democratic incumbent picks up just 28% of the vote. Two percent (2%) prefer some other candidate in the race, and four percent (4%) are undecided.

If Lieutenant Governor Bill Halter is his opponent, Boozman, currently the state’s only GOP congressman, earns 60% of the vote to the Democrat’s 33%. Four percent (4%) like someone else in the race, and three percent (3%) remain undecided.

With numbers against incumbent Democrats like these, Republicans may gain some ground in the Arkansas Congressional delegation as well.   These gaps are remarkable for a man making his first statewide run for office in the state against two Democrats who have successfully run statewide in the past.  They show that Arkansans have had enough of the Democratic agenda and may be on a full-blown transformative move to the GOP.

Boozman handily wins both men and women against both candidates — a surprising 59% of women against Blanche Lincoln, and 55% against Halter.  The Republican also wins majorities in every age demographic against both candidates with the exception of the youngest voters against Halter.  Boozman also wins almost 80% of independents against either candidate.  He splits self-described moderates with Halter (42/43) but beats Lincoln by seven (49/42).  He also wins every income demographic against both candidates, including the under-$20K demo usually owned by Democrats (59/35 against Lincoln, 49/41 against Halter).

That’s not much of a surprise.  Seventy-two percent of likely Arkansas voters want ObamaCare repealed.  Seventy-seven percent have little or no confidence in Congressional action on the economy.  Three quarters of voters believe that the current Congress doesn’t represent their interests.  Barack Obama’s approval rating in Arkansas, which sent Bill Clinton to the White House, is 32/67, with a 57% majority strongly disapproving of his performance.

I hope Lincoln and Halter enjoy themselves in the runoff, because it’s the only fun either will have between now and November.


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I’m glad this is going to a runoff. The Dems will waste even more money to elect the eventual loser.

Doughboy on May 21, 2010 at 1:39 PM

Even knowing what is to come in November, I think it would suck worse to be a sitting Senator and lose a primary runoff.

myrenovations on May 21, 2010 at 1:39 PM

Wow.

changer1701 on May 21, 2010 at 1:39 PM

just wait, the msm will be pouncing on Boozman with 40 yr old legislation soon enough….

cmsinaz on May 21, 2010 at 1:41 PM

pssst

66% is 2 out of 3 and almost a 40 point lead.

alexwest on May 21, 2010 at 1:41 PM

…Democrats may have to put some ice on it after November…

opaobie on May 21, 2010 at 1:41 PM

I think the fella on the right is going to lose.

jukin on May 21, 2010 at 1:43 PM

I love Chrissy Mathews last night re: Toomey. “is he all there? does he have all of his marbles? seriosly, is he normal”. even Sestak was aghast.

DrW on May 21, 2010 at 1:45 PM

To improve their numbers…

… maybe the Democrats should give a standing ovation to the President of Mexico.

Oh, wait!

Seven Percent Solution on May 21, 2010 at 1:45 PM

Time for this bho to come help someone out in Arkansas!
L

letget on May 21, 2010 at 1:46 PM

Running as a Democrat is going to be like running as a leper.

“Unclean… unclean…”

Akzed on May 21, 2010 at 1:48 PM

Word out of Little Rock has it that Obooba is trying to find an angle whereby he can campaign for Boozman, but Boozman just said, “Hey… wait a minute…”

Akzed on May 21, 2010 at 1:50 PM

I got it!

Maybe the winner could carpetbag to Murtha’s old district in Western Pennsylvania and get elected Boss Hogg of Westmoreland or Fayette county or something by the toothless, inbred racists they have as voters up there.

IlikedAUH2O on May 21, 2010 at 1:51 PM

They show that Arkansans have had enough of the Democratic agenda and may be on a full-blown transformative move to the GOP.

Ut oh. This is bad. Obama needs to bring Calderon back to the White House to denounce Arkansas right away.

MB4 on May 21, 2010 at 1:52 PM

IlikedAUH2O on May 21, 2010 at 1:51 PM

Hey!!!!! Murtha called them that and they sent him back to the United States Congress. (Cap C in county above.)

IlikedAUH2O on May 21, 2010 at 1:54 PM

I hope Lincoln and Halter enjoy themselves in the runoff, because it’s the only fun either will have between now and November.

Oh, c’mon. You underestimate the ability of Republican candidates to suffer from self inflicted gunshot wounds. It isn’t the elections that make me nervous anymore, it what revelation is going to come out and remember there are two sets of standards. For the Republicans there is a zero tolerance policy while Democrats enjoy the luxury of the anything goes standard.

Just A Grunt on May 21, 2010 at 1:57 PM

Pyrric victory, either way, gotta love it.

iurockhead on May 21, 2010 at 1:59 PM

Oh, c’mon. You underestimate the ability of Republican candidates to suffer from self inflicted gunshot wounds.

Just A Grunt on May 21, 2010 at 1:57 PM

To blow a lead like this, it would require a self-inflicted atomic bomb.

Doughboy on May 21, 2010 at 1:59 PM

How about that Arizona governor’s poll from Rasmussen?

Brewer is tanking!!!/

Abby Adams on May 21, 2010 at 2:00 PM

With numbers against incumbent Democrats like these, Republicans may gain some ground in the Arkansas Congressional delegation as well. These gaps are remarkable for a man making his first statewide run for office in the state against two Democrats who have successfully run statewide in the past. They show that Arkansans have had enough of the Democratic agenda and may be on a full-blown transformative move to the GOP.

Hopefully Boozman has some long coattails, to bring out GOP voters for his own House seat, and also to throw out Democrats from the other three districts in Arkansas.

Steve Z on May 21, 2010 at 2:03 PM

I’m sure Bill Clinton will show up in Arkansas and campaign for the Demoncrat.

I’m sure Mike Huckabee will show up and campaign for the Republican.

Arkansas Throw-down.

portlandon on May 21, 2010 at 2:04 PM

Yesterday, the AFSCME announced that they were gonna spend $1.4 Million and send 50 union staffers to help Halter during the 3 week runoff (June 8th). That’s a lot of money in Arkansas and should result in wall to wall ads which WILL erode whatever goodwill Arkansans have left for these 2. Lincoln will no doubt continue to run radio spots with BillyJeff endorsement, to have the obamanation continue his robocalls and, to models her scarf collection. Halter will surely run ads showing him standing next to Bill and continue to have MoveOn.org’s backing.

Come November, Boozman 63% to 37% for Lincoln/Halter…

p.s. To any AFSCME members, I hope your “leadership” isn’t spending YOUR pension money…

Gohawgs on May 21, 2010 at 2:04 PM

How about that Arizona governor’s poll from Rasmussen?

Brewer is tanking!!!/

Abby Adams on May 21, 2010 at 2:00 PM

http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/elections2/election_2010/election_2010_governor_elections/arizona/election_2010_arizona_governor

Huh? Brewer leads 52-39. Maybe a 13-point lead is unlucky, but lots of candidates would love to “tank” like Brewer.

Steve Z on May 21, 2010 at 2:08 PM

Huh? Brewer leads 52-39. Maybe a 13-point lead is unlucky, but lots of candidates would love to “tank” like Brewer.

Steve Z on May 21, 2010 at 2:08 PM

I believe Abby was being facetious.

Doughboy on May 21, 2010 at 2:09 PM

Brewer is tanking!!!/

Abby Adams on May 21, 2010 at 2:00 PM

Huh? Brewer leads 52-39. Maybe a 13-point lead is unlucky, but lots of candidates would love to “tank” like Brewer.

Steve Z on May 21, 2010 at 2:08 PM

There’s a sarc tag at the end of the exclamation marks.

txag92 on May 21, 2010 at 2:12 PM

To improve their numbers…

… maybe the Democrats should give a standing ovation to the President of Mexico.

Oh, wait!

Seven Percent Solution on May 21, 2010 at 1:45 PM

Gordon Brown was unavailable for comment.

Laura in Maryland on May 21, 2010 at 2:16 PM

p.s. To any AFSCME members, I hope your “leadership” isn’t spending YOUR pension money…

Gohawgs on May 21, 2010 at 2:04 PM

Good point. Until we get enough hard-working Americans to realize that their unions are taking them for a ride, we can’t turn this disaster around.

Laura in Maryland on May 21, 2010 at 2:18 PM

Oh, c’mon. You underestimate the ability of Republican candidates to suffer from self inflicted gunshot wounds. It isn’t the elections that make me nervous anymore, it what revelation is going to come out and remember there are two sets of standards. For the Republicans there is a zero tolerance policy while Democrats enjoy the luxury of the anything goes standard.

Just A Grunt on May 21, 2010 at 1:57 PM

I strongly suggest that the Republican not say a word like macaca.

TXMomof3 on May 21, 2010 at 2:29 PM

Hell, let those Democratic donations get burned up now, rather than later.

GarandFan on May 21, 2010 at 2:47 PM

ObamaCare flushed out a lot of so-called conservative democrats from hiding. Now it should be clear to the 52% that they were never conservative in any way. Of course that was never a secret around here.

Hopefully many of them will be flushed down the drain in November.

Adios Blanche. And what kind of a name is “Blanche”, anyway.

SlaveDog on May 21, 2010 at 3:00 PM

So Boozman leads a Boobman, go figure.

NoDonkey on May 21, 2010 at 3:03 PM

I strongly suggest that the Republican not say a word like macaca.

TXMomof3 on May 21, 2010 at 2:29 PM

Just A Grunt on May 21, 2010 at 3:12 PM

Meh…anecdotal evidence of the intrinsic, deeply-entrenched racism and fear in Arkansas.

BobMbx on May 21, 2010 at 3:12 PM

A new entry for ‘famous last words’:

“The big difference here and in ‘94 was you’ve got me.”
–BHO to Rep. Marion Berry (D-Ark), 01/25/2010

rcpjr on May 21, 2010 at 3:21 PM

pssst
66% is 2 out of 3 and almost a 40 point lead.
alexwest on May 21, 2010 at 1:41 PM

pssst don’t get cocky.

I remember a SNL skit back in 1992, it was a game show called “Who will lose to Bush”

DSchoen on May 21, 2010 at 3:29 PM

I hope Lincoln and Halter enjoy themselves in the runoff, because it’s the only fun either will have between now and November.

Oh, ouch.

And yet, sooo good. :)

Bob's Kid on May 21, 2010 at 3:29 PM

How about that Arizona governor’s poll from Rasmussen?
Brewer is tanking!!!/
Abby Adams on May 21, 2010 at 2:00 PM

Did you mean

tanking!!! /s?

DSchoen on May 21, 2010 at 3:33 PM

Hell, let those Democratic donations get burned up now, rather than later.

GarandFan on May 21, 2010 at 2:47 PM

Hell, let those Democratic donations eventual bail out tax dollars get burned up now, rather than later.

fify/tgr

scituate_tgr on May 21, 2010 at 3:38 PM

Hopefully Boozman has some long coattails, to bring out GOP voters for his own House seat, and also to throw out Democrats from the other three districts in Arkansas.

Steve Z on May 21, 2010 at 2:03 PM

This is my House seat; I’d be very surprised to see it go Democrat. This part of the state is like 70%+ registered Republican. Then you have people like who are unaffiliated but lean right. In fact, I didn’t even know there was a Democratic challenger until I read the paper Wednesday. I am pretty sure District 3 remains solidly red.

I’m not sure about the others. Western Arkansas tends to be more conservative than Little Rock and points east. I don’t know how Mike Ross is polling in his district, but I know he was sweating bullets during the health care debate.

NoLeftTurn on May 21, 2010 at 3:46 PM

Boozman handily wins both men and women against both candidates — a surprising 59% of women against Blanche Lincoln, and 55% against Halter.

!!!!

Wow … she really pissed off Arkansas women didn’t she?

Holy hell – I that factoid made my day!

You should rerun it as a “Quote” tonight!!

HondaV65 on May 21, 2010 at 3:50 PM

HondaV65 on May 21, 2010 at 3:50 PM

Dude, she pissed off everyone. Arkansans oppose Obamacare by like a 2/3 majority and she still voted for cloture b/c the DNC assured her all would be well. People were demanding a town hall with her last summer and she flat out refused. I don’t think people here cotton to being given the finger by one of their representatives. My friend has been a Democrat all of her life. The 2008 election made an independent of her. She said to me about Lincoln, “Blanche’s problem is that she stopped listening to the people of Arkansas and now the people of Arkansas are done listening to her.” That about sums it up! Heck, I have voted for her before; she’s always done a passable job for us before the azz clown Obama got into office and wrecked everything. She should have stood her ground but instead she sold us out for whatever it is those thugs promised her. Well, Arkansas cannot be bought off so it’s curtains for ol’ Blanche. She’s a nice lady, but we don’t need nice in Washington. We need someone who will watch out for us.

NoLeftTurn on May 21, 2010 at 4:01 PM

DSchoen on May 21, 2010 at 3:33 PM

If people can’t figure out that I was being sarcastic (despite all the unnecessary help I already gave), they have no business being on the internet.

Abby Adams on May 21, 2010 at 4:05 PM

NoLeftTurn, greetings from your neighbor here in AR District 3. If any Democrat wins District 3, I’ll go on national television and endorse Obama in 2012. Ain’t gonna happen. John Paul Hammerschmidt (R), Asa Hutchinson (R), John Boozman (R). No D’s allowed.

John Boozman wasn’t my preference for the Senate race because I’m afraid he’s just a party man. We need some independent thinkers in Washington who aren’t afraid to buck the system. And no, I am not talking about a John McCain-type maverick. I mean a true conservative.

stevelockridge on May 21, 2010 at 4:12 PM

The country doesn’t want “representatives” who represent the world/Mexico, local moochers,… but not the people who pay the taxes.

Schadenfreude on May 21, 2010 at 6:48 PM