What if Arkansas held a runoff between candidates for the Democratic nomination to the Senate and no one came? According to the latest Rasmussen poll, that may as well be the outcome of the overtime balloting between incumbent Blanche Lincoln and challenger Bill Halter on June 8th. The Republican nominee will win six out of ten likely voters in the general election against either opponent:
Arkansas Democrats still have to pick their candidate in a June 8 runoff, but for now Republican John Boozman holds sizable leads over both his potential rivals in the state’s U.S. Senate race.
A new Rasmussen Reports telephone survey of Likely Voters in Arkansas, taken Wednesday night, shows Boozman, the winner of Tuesday’s state GOP Primary, with 66% support in a match-up with Senator Blanche Lincoln. The Democratic incumbent picks up just 28% of the vote. Two percent (2%) prefer some other candidate in the race, and four percent (4%) are undecided.
If Lieutenant Governor Bill Halter is his opponent, Boozman, currently the state’s only GOP congressman, earns 60% of the vote to the Democrat’s 33%. Four percent (4%) like someone else in the race, and three percent (3%) remain undecided.
With numbers against incumbent Democrats like these, Republicans may gain some ground in the Arkansas Congressional delegation as well. These gaps are remarkable for a man making his first statewide run for office in the state against two Democrats who have successfully run statewide in the past. They show that Arkansans have had enough of the Democratic agenda and may be on a full-blown transformative move to the GOP.
Boozman handily wins both men and women against both candidates — a surprising 59% of women against Blanche Lincoln, and 55% against Halter. The Republican also wins majorities in every age demographic against both candidates with the exception of the youngest voters against Halter. Boozman also wins almost 80% of independents against either candidate. He splits self-described moderates with Halter (42/43) but beats Lincoln by seven (49/42). He also wins every income demographic against both candidates, including the under-$20K demo usually owned by Democrats (59/35 against Lincoln, 49/41 against Halter).
That’s not much of a surprise. Seventy-two percent of likely Arkansas voters want ObamaCare repealed. Seventy-seven percent have little or no confidence in Congressional action on the economy. Three quarters of voters believe that the current Congress doesn’t represent their interests. Barack Obama’s approval rating in Arkansas, which sent Bill Clinton to the White House, is 32/67, with a 57% majority strongly disapproving of his performance.
I hope Lincoln and Halter enjoy themselves in the runoff, because it’s the only fun either will have between now and November.