Burns up by 1 in PPP poll
posted at 9:30 am on May 17, 2010 by Ed Morrissey
Voters go to the polls in the special election in PA-12 tomorrow, and it looks like a photo finish. Despite reports from internal polling for Democrat Mark Critz showing him with a comfortable but small lead, Public Policy Polling shows Republican Tim Burns edging John Murtha’s former aide. Enthusiasm provides the difference:
The special election to replace John Murtha looks to be headed for a photo finish, with Republican Tim Burns leading Democrat Mark Critz 48-47 in PPP’s final poll of the race.
PA-12 provides a clear example of how dimly voters are viewing politicians and parties across the board right now. Hurting Critz’s chances is that 55% of voters in the district disapprove of Barack Obama and 63% have an unfavorable opinion of Nancy Pelosi. But national Republicans don’t do much better in the district with 60% of voters expressing a negative opinion of Congressional Republicans and 63% saying the GOP ran the country poorly while George W. Bush was President.
If Burns does pull out the victory on Tuesday night it will be more because of a continuing gap in interest between Democratic and Republican voters in the off year election than anything else. Critz is actually winning over more McCain voters (14%) than Burns is Obama voters (12%). This race is not an example of people who voted for Obama who are now unhappy with him and voting Republican. But those planning to vote on Tuesday report having voted for John McCain by 5 points in 2008, compared to his actual 1 point victory in the district. And among voters who say they’re ‘very excited’ to vote in this election, Burns has a 60-38 lead.
The poll surveyed over 800 likely voters in the district, a larger-than-normal sampling for a Congressional race. In a district normally rated as significantly Democratic in nature, the survey leaves Republicans with a 19-point gap in party ID, 55/36. That seems a little wide for likely voters — and shows the kind of trouble in which Critz finds himself.
Critz has other problems as well. He only has a 3-point lead among women, who don’t even give him a majority with a day left until they have to vote, 49/46. Burns wins men by six points, 50/44. Most tellingly, Critz’s favorability is upside down at 39/45, while Burns enjoys a 44/36 rating. In another harbinger, this Democratic district favors Pat Toomey over both Arlen Specter (53/34) and Joe Sestak (45/35).
Tim Burns has a tough job tomorrow in a Democratic district, but voters there seem ready for some real change. This could be a shocking win for Republicans in the heart of Democratic Pennsylvania.
Addendum: Critz isn’t the only person plagued by bad polling in PA-12. While 83% of the voters consider themselves Steelers fans, only 48% want Ben Roethlisberger taking the field for Pittsburgh next season.
Blowback
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Leave Ben alone.
Question: is this special election only applicable until November, and then it needs to be done all over again during the normal election cycle?
Bishop on May 17, 2010 at 9:33 AM
I’ve wondered the same thing.
stenwin77 on May 17, 2010 at 9:37 AM
Yep.
They’ll vote again in Nov.
artist on May 17, 2010 at 9:38 AM
New Quinn poll has Sestak +1 over Specter.
Hope for a Specter win by a few hundred votes.
Then a recount…and the left goes CRAZY.
artist on May 17, 2010 at 9:39 AM
Yeah, they’ll have a do-over in November, but he’ll have the incumbency going for him, which is nice.
Darksean on May 17, 2010 at 9:39 AM
All of these elections are important…whether we win or lose, it sets a tone. If it comes close, dems are in trouble, if they lose it’s a disaster. The only good outcome for dems is if the win by walking away with a large vote difference.
I think their is dem apathy, and that will undo them…
right2bright on May 17, 2010 at 9:40 AM
Now that would be sweet!
Darksean on May 17, 2010 at 9:40 AM
Pull for the Democrat! It’s a cheap loss and the GOP need to be taken off their high-horse because they are counting November Chickens before they hatch.
HondaV65 on May 17, 2010 at 9:40 AM
One percent is no problem for ACORN and other Dem. operatives.
Be afraid, very afraid.
FOWG1 on May 17, 2010 at 9:41 AM
“Critz is actually winning over more McCain voters (14%) than Burns is Obama voters (12%)”
hmmmmmmmmmmmmmmm
golfmann on May 17, 2010 at 9:41 AM
Yeah, that Roger Gooddell, he’s da man.
DaydreamBeliever on May 17, 2010 at 9:44 AM
I heard Major Garrett on IMUS this morning. Did he misspeak? because he says Grayson will win over Rand?
Isn’t Rand up by double digits?
LurkerDood on May 17, 2010 at 9:44 AM
GOOOOOOOOOOOOOO BURNS!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
deidre on May 17, 2010 at 9:44 AM
Great job, Tim!!
Let’s also remember that Star Parker is running as a Republican against the ethics violating, Maxine Waters protege, Laura Richardson, for the 37th Congressional district in L.A. County. This special election is June 8th and Ms. Parker is amazing and a David who is taking on Goliath. You want someone who promotes applying the free market as a way to escape poverty? Star has done it in her own life and continues to teach others through her action group CURE (Center for Urban Renewal and Education).Get behind her today.
pjean on May 17, 2010 at 9:44 AM
Isn’t Rand up by double digits?
LurkerDood on May 17, 2010 at 9:44 AM
Yes, that one is over.
artist on May 17, 2010 at 9:46 AM
To be in a stasticial dead heat with a Dem in that place is huge.
Johnnyreb on May 17, 2010 at 9:48 AM
Absolutely terrible advice. Hell no! This is not the time to be “teaching a lesson” to Republicans by electing Democrats!
That is what primaries are for. This is a good candidate who if he gets his foot in the door now, could hold the seat. He is running against Murtha’s chief aide, for crying out loud! Defeat his azz, and deprive Queen Nancy of another vote. This must be done at all costs. When it is a primary, sure teach the Republicans a lesson then by whipping the establishment with a fresh conservative, ala Utah GOP convention.
Now we have a Republican head to head with a DC insider Democrat, so we must defeat the Democrat, period!
Brian1972 on May 17, 2010 at 9:59 AM
If conservatives don’t control of the House and/or Senate, there may not be a “next season.”
davidk on May 17, 2010 at 10:19 AM
C’mon, PA – send another signal and bury Murtha’s legacy for good.
Midas on May 17, 2010 at 10:27 AM
FLYSPECKS.
Unless the Steeler line pass protects, whoever starts at Steeler QB is going to be as sore as one of Ben’s dates.
The NFL has a crunch looming, anyway. Redskins win in strike seasons.
Looking for a real conservative? The WH is most afrad of a lunchbox conservative and Hannity scares them silly. In addition to his vexatious habit of reporting scandals, that is. The One needs unions and minorities. A conservative who can feed the economy jobs will blow the current Dems into the weeds. Heh.
The major donor list for the RNC looks like they need to start doing bake sales. I would love to find a consultant to make them an offer.
IlikedAUH2O on May 17, 2010 at 10:50 AM
What is the ACORN fraud percentage, as was the case with Al Franken? The problem is that the Democrats gets the illegals and frauds voting for them as well as whatever legitimate votes they can fool.
sabbahillel on May 17, 2010 at 10:55 AM
Ben’s just lucky The Chief isn’t still around. If he was, Ben would’ve been out on his arse long ago, no matter how well he was playing.
I grew up in PA-12, and most of my family (Dem’s all, mores-the-pity) were ardent Murtha supporters. It’ll be tough for Burns to actually win, but there has been lessening support in PA-12 for Murtha-type politics in the last few election cycles.
Here’s hoping Tim Burns can pull this one off.
Oh, and Go Stillers!
dalewalt on May 17, 2010 at 11:09 AM
Huh? Usually you and I see eye to eye on issues, but this is bad advice.
Anyway, PA has closed primaries, so the advice is moot.
onlineanalyst on May 17, 2010 at 11:13 AM
Just saw Frank Luntz on Fox showing the reaction to Specter’s latest ad. It was a major bust. Right from the beginning when he says “Hi, I’m Arlen Specter,” those dials for D and R dropped like a stone. They also showed the ad for Tim James (Bama) where he said people need to speak English, and it got up to 93 on the R side and 53 on the D side.
di butler on May 17, 2010 at 11:18 AM
This guy is endo’d by Scott Brown – which means what you see ain’t what you get. This seat comes up again for election in November anyway – so any Democrat who gets it can be ousted then.
Burns is not a real conservative and that’s proven by the fact that Scott Brown is campaigning for him. You elect Burns – you are just going to get a guy in a Red jersey voting with the Dems. Additionally – Burns has political ties with the old Murtha regime.
He’s not the right candidate.
Vote for the Democrat – and send a message to the GOP that they need to put forth candidates who are willing to do the hard work of saving this nation.
Or – if you consider politics a “sport” like football and really don’t care about putting the nation on the right track – then go ahead and pull for this Murtha clone in a Red jersey.
HondaV65 on May 17, 2010 at 11:55 AM
Perhaps some people should dress vaguely ICE agents and hang around the polling stations.
Slowburn on May 17, 2010 at 12:07 PM
Hey kids i’m up in the district knocking on doors in the rain with an all star group of campaigners. We are going to win this. There are a ton of people out here from all over. College Republicans have showed up in force from neighboring states and as far away as Georgia. We got this.
dczombie on May 17, 2010 at 12:21 PM
Go get em! We’re pulling for you!
Edouard on May 17, 2010 at 1:29 PM
You’re crazy if you think losing the PA-12 election is going to teach anybody anything, or have some kind of weird benefit for the GOP.
Republicans across the country are already intense, win or lose in PA. There will be no let-up on the gas pedal for the conservative grass roots, there’s way too much at stake this year.
Republicans need to go all out and win PA-12, period.
Edouard on May 17, 2010 at 1:38 PM
Remember folks, the special election is on the same ballot as the Republican primary. THe GOP insiders brought in RINO Burns into this district because he is uber rich and contributed to their own campaigns. They brushed off Bill Russell who gave Murtha a big run for his money in 2008.
Bill Russell is running against Burns in the primary tomorrow. The smart vote is to vote Russell in the primary and Burns in the special election to fill the seat until next January.
Bill Russell is the real deal. He will watch out for our tax dollars and for our troops. Spread the word.
karenhasfreedom on May 17, 2010 at 3:04 PM
“If Burns does pull out the victory on Tuesday night it will be more because of a continuing gap in interest between Democratic and Republican voters in the off year election than anything else.”
Your point is well taken but as Barone has pointed the “interest” level, ie; participation, on the right is on avg twice what it was in 06 & 08, where as on the left it has by on avg by a quarter. This is not an insignificant trend, and perhaps lend toward a 5-7% boost at the ballot box. The qquestion in my mind is if this enough to counter the weight of the typical fraud involved with Rendels formidable PA machine including the usual cast of carachters of the SEIU, ACORN,AFSCME, AFl-CIO, NEA, etc. who have pouring huge amounts of money and foot soldiers into this race.
To my mind this race is the big enchilada of 10 and the best barometer of how we will fare across the board and going into 12. I certainly hope that a significant portion of the R’s resources have been allocated to poll-watchers, election judges and lawyers, every since the fiasco in FL in 00 we have been losing on this front. For reference see: Coleman vs Franken MN.
Archimedes on May 17, 2010 at 3:41 PM
Your point is well taken but as Barone has pointed the “interest” level, ie; participation, on the right is on avg twice what it was in 06 & 08, where as on the left it has by on avg down by a quarter.
Sorry, I need to pre-view more often.
Archimedes on May 17, 2010 at 3:42 PM
OK…start to rant…
1. Still waiting on Karen to provide PROOF of Burns being a RINO. Saying that he knows such-and-such and that means that he is doesn’t cut it. Give me issues…
2. HondaV65 — That has to be the dumbest thing I’ve seen today, and I have seen Obama talk on the news…Vote for the Democrat…pure idiocity…Yeah, that’ll teach those dumb Repubs…(end saracasm…for now).
3. Brian1972 — Well said.
4. So what if Scott Brown is campaigning for him? This is a Democratic-leaning District (2-1 at the least…) I say get as many people as you can to come here to help. Rep. Pence also came here…Was Burns a Conservative then?
5. I voted for Russell the last election and hoped he would win. After talking with many around where I live, people didn’t like him BECAUSE he moved here to run against Murtha. Burns at least grew up here and lives here. Russell just didn’t run a great campaign the last time, why give him another chance in this Very Important Special Election? I think picking Burns gives the Republicans a better chance of winning the seat.
6. Yes, I said WIN! We need to take the House (at least) to keep Obama, Reid, and Pelosi from shoving more stuff down our throats. We may not be able to repeal Obamacare right now, but winning one of the chambers will keep us from having to fix more stuff when we take back the top job.
7. Critz was one of Murtha’s chief aides…So a vote for Critz IS a vote for Pelosi’s agenda…You really think Critz would vote against any of her ideas, since she is helping him with his fundraising? Sure he will…
Ok…Done for now…Will watch to respond later if needed…
pennjazz on May 17, 2010 at 6:23 PM
Well said, Pennjazz. Honda is way out of bounds to claim that a Scott Brown endorsement makes Burns a Rino. Burns #1 issue is overturn healthcare. He is solid. I am proud to be here busting my ass for him. If Bill Russle was the nominee I would be doing the same for him but he’s not. Burns needs to win both elections tomorrow so he can defend the seat in Nov. I believe he will. I see no evidence here of an actual Russle campaign. My guess is Burns takes the primary in a landslide and wins the special by more than enough to prevent any kind of recount cheating and stealing.
dczombie on May 17, 2010 at 8:14 PM