Obama’s job approval sinking in battleground states

posted at 2:20 pm on May 14, 2010 by Ed Morrissey

The White House has been pointing recently to a mildly positive trend in polling on Barack Obama’s job-approval numbers, provided mainly by media polling.  Rasmussen’s poll also shows Obama’s numbers stabilizing, although at a below-50% level (currently at 46%).   The national numbers won’t matter nearly as much as the state numbers in the upcoming midterms, though, and Real Clear Politics notices that battleground states have bad news for Obama and the Democrats:

But a look at Obama’s numbers on a state-by-state basis reflects the party’s precarious state in the midst of a critical string of primaries and special elections. RCP compiled state-specific public polling over the past three months, and found Obama’s net job approval rating is in negative territory in 28 of the 44 states where figures are available, including nearly all the battleground states critical to his and the Democrats’ future success.

In Florida, the president’s net approval rating is -1.7; in Colorado, it’s -6.5; North Carolina, -2.7; Ohio, -7.8; Nevada, -5.0; and Pennsylvania, it’s -3.0. These six states all feature critical Senate contests this year, with the Keystone State also home to a potential bellwether special Congressional race next Tuesday. And five of the six were red states that flipped into the Democratic column in the 2008 presidential election.

Obama’s position is far worse in several other 2008 battlegrounds, as well as red states where Democrats are struggling to hold seats this fall. In Arkansas, where Sen. Blanche Lincoln trails all potential Republican opponents, Obama’s net approval rating is -28. In Indiana, a state Obama won, his rating is -13. And Missouri, which he narrowly lost and hosts an open Senate race Democrats had thought was a prime pickup opportunity, his rating is -11.5.

Keep this in mind when Barack Obama hits the campaign trail over the summer to help bolster Democrats in the midterms.   The White House insists that it has been campaigning, but only on safe ground.  For instance, Obama did a fundraiser for Barbara Boxer, who can’t get out of the 40s in polling support despite the fact that Obama’s numbers look good in California (+16.8).  Obama also did a fundraiser for the DCCC last night in New York, where he has a +15 favorability.

Going to deep blue states will be a given.  Will he show up in Arkansas?  In Colorado, the state where Obama accepted the Democratic nomination?  In Pennsylvania, where Obama has already campaigned for Arlen Specter, his presence will likely help Pat Toomey, especially if Obama appears with the deeply unpopular Ed Rendell.

More importantly, Obama can’t win a second term with this slate of numbers in battleground states.  He won every one of the listed states where he’s gone underwater.  He could lose Colorado and North Carolina and still be relatively safe, but losing Ohio, Pennsylvania, and Florida would mean a single term in office.  Even winning California and New York won’t make up for the loss of 28 states in 2012.


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The eternal campaigner. I didn’t realize he was finished with 2008.

percysunshine on May 14, 2010 at 2:23 PM

Where are the jobs? Will The American Power Grab Act kill another million jobs?

seven on May 14, 2010 at 2:24 PM

The American Power Outage Act

moonbatkiller on May 14, 2010 at 2:25 PM

I hope he campaigns all over…especially for other at-risk Democrats! His track record is impressive…for our side!

search4truth on May 14, 2010 at 2:26 PM

Obama was cute today. He lashed out at Halliburton, BP and Transocean Drilling blaming others. They learned it from Himm. He has never stopped blaming Booosh.

seven on May 14, 2010 at 2:26 PM

Hopey`s on the Precipice!!

canopfor on May 14, 2010 at 2:26 PM

Give those states another 2 years. Once the tax increases hit the middle class, he won’t have a prayer of holding onto any of them.

Doughboy on May 14, 2010 at 2:27 PM

Hope and Change

Divider and Un-uniter!

canopfor on May 14, 2010 at 2:29 PM

How will the Dems spin this, to make it look as if they have nothing to worry about? With the help of ACORN, The New Black Panthers, and SEIU. They probably don’t have anything to worry about.

Vote wrong, and you sleep with the fishes.

capejasmine on May 14, 2010 at 2:31 PM

Barry’s coat tails are sticking out of his collar.

By November, Democrats will be sprinting away from him when he enters the room.

Epic fail.

NoDonkey on May 14, 2010 at 2:33 PM

Change I can believe in!!!

davek70 on May 14, 2010 at 2:33 PM

Even winning California and New York…in 2012

That would just be stuck on stupid.

WashJeff on May 14, 2010 at 2:33 PM

Obama’s job approval sinking in battleground states

Couldn’t happen to a better NeoSocialist.

Chip on May 14, 2010 at 2:35 PM

How can this be? Yesterday morning Bill Bennett told me that the voters were falling back in love with Obama.

myrenovations on May 14, 2010 at 2:36 PM

I predict a war between Eurasia and Eastasia in the spring of 2012…

Akzed on May 14, 2010 at 2:37 PM

More importantly, Obama can’t win a second term with this slate of numbers in battleground states.

I love this line. I can’t get enough of it.

sherry on May 14, 2010 at 2:37 PM

It’s coming Barry. They are coming to erase your fingerprints off of our great Nation:

President Palin
President Christie
President Romney
President Rubio
President Perry
President Ryan
President Brown
President Huckabee
President West
President DeMint

portlandon on May 14, 2010 at 2:39 PM

If you haven’t noticed by now that this marxist fraud has launched a multi-faceted attack on on our country and our freedoms, it’s difficult to imagine what it would take.

ontherocks on May 14, 2010 at 2:39 PM

Unemployment is a sonofabish.

Inanemergencydial on May 14, 2010 at 2:39 PM

Change?

No… we MUST change in 2012 or the Democrats will destroy the country irrecoverably.

Skywise on May 14, 2010 at 2:40 PM

Don’t worry, in case you haven’t been watching Beck, an emergency is coming, but probably not elections in 2012.

tim c on May 14, 2010 at 2:41 PM

Go Barry, go. Don’t stop talking.

dentalque on May 14, 2010 at 2:41 PM

Niki Tsongas doesn’t want him to campaign for her in Mass., go figure.

Schadenfreude on May 14, 2010 at 2:42 PM

Barry’s coat tails are sticking out of his collar.

Coattails…for Republicans?

One important state, which Obama won in 2008 that wasn’t mentioned in the linked article was Virginia. But maybe Creigh Deeds can tell us.

Steve Z on May 14, 2010 at 2:43 PM

I just want to see this insufferably arrogant guy’s face when the Democrats lose Congress and I want to see Gibbs try to spin it as a victory.

All I want for Christmas.

NoDonkey on May 14, 2010 at 2:44 PM

How will the Dems spin this, to make it look as if they have nothing to worry about? With the help of ACORN, The New Black Panthers, and SEIU. They probably don’t have anything to worry about.

Vote wrong, and you sleep with the fishes.

capejasmine on May 14, 2010 at 2:31 PM

That crew is only effective in the large urban centers in the deep blue states that are going down with Oliar anyway. There aren’t enough of them for the fly overs.

ontherocks on May 14, 2010 at 2:44 PM

I like to see myself as being on the death panel before which Democrats will stand in November.

Akzed on May 14, 2010 at 2:45 PM

Keep your chin up Toonces and just practice your burger flippin’ skills…

You think you inherited a bad economy when you got that job, just wait till you see what a bad economy you inherit once you get your a$$ thrown out of that job.

ted c on May 14, 2010 at 2:45 PM

Here’s a question: Can a president who’s been impeached by the House and convicted by the Senate run for the same office again at election time?

Dusty on May 14, 2010 at 2:46 PM

Niki Tsongas doesn’t want him to campaign for her in Mass., go figure.

Schadenfreude on May 14, 2010 at 2:42 PM

In a district where Scott Brown got 56% of the vote.

Anyone think Obama will campaign for Bawney Fwank?

Steve Z on May 14, 2010 at 2:46 PM

More importantly, Obama can’t win a second term with this slate of numbers in battleground states.

If the Republicans nominate another McCain he certainly can.

MB4 on May 14, 2010 at 2:46 PM

“Sorry Mr. Obooba, but I’m afraid we’re going to have to amputate both your congress and senate…”

Akzed on May 14, 2010 at 2:46 PM

NoDonkey on May 14, 2010 at 2:44 PM

The speech from Obama the day after the November elections could possibly be the ultimate combination of temper tantrum, narcissism and delusion that the AMA may be studying it for years.

sherry on May 14, 2010 at 2:47 PM

Here’s a question: Can a president who’s been impeached by the House and convicted by the Senate run for the same office again at election time?

Dusty on May 14, 2010 at 2:46 PM

A moot point. Rots o’ ruck convicting him with a Dem Senate!

Steve Z on May 14, 2010 at 2:48 PM

Obama’s numbers look good in California (+16.8).

They’re probably looking hopefully at him as their sugar daddy to bail them out.

jwolf on May 14, 2010 at 2:48 PM

RCP compiled state-specific public polling over the past three months, and found Obama’s net job approval rating is in negative territory in 28

Let’s see now, that’s under half of the states. Right?

Vince on May 14, 2010 at 2:48 PM

Ahhhhh change is comin’!

cartooner on May 14, 2010 at 2:49 PM

Can you feel it?

That Change in the air?

upinak on May 14, 2010 at 2:51 PM

Nothing that a few hundred billion bucks from Stimulus IX won’t fix. When the time comes, PBHO will be tossing out so much money to try and buy votes that it will resemble a cash blizzard.

If he fails, PBHO still has a lifetime senate seat in Illinois waiting for him; you can’t cure the stupid which inhabits Chicago.

Bishop on May 14, 2010 at 2:53 PM

I just want to see this insufferably arrogant guy’s face when the Democrats lose Congress and I want to see Gibbs try to spin it as a victory.

NoDonkey on May 14, 2010 at 2:44 PM

November 3, 2010:

Barack Obama said Wednesday that he would not accept the results of the election. Democrats, claiming massive fraud, have demanded manual recounts of votes cast in the November 2 elections until all Democrats come out ahead and said they plan to file a federal discrimination law suit against dead peoples votes not being counted past their first four ballots and illegal aliens votes not being counted past their first six ballots. Barack Obama, Hugo Chavez, Fidel Castro and Mahmoud Ahmadinejad have all said the elections were not credible and urged Democrat Senators and Representatives who were fraudulently defeated at the polls to barricade themselves in their offices until Eric Holder, SEIC, ACORN and LaRaza could properly sort everything out.

MB4 on May 14, 2010 at 2:53 PM

Did he say that his administration gave Haliburton an uncontested contract? Didn’t think so.

Did he say that his administration neglected to get proper drilling permits from BP…didn’t think so..

Aw, the media such good little comrades,

nondhimmie on May 14, 2010 at 2:59 PM

oh pshaw! dont worry Critters you have Obama!
BWAAAAHAAAFRAKKINHAAAAAAA!!!!!

ginaswo on May 14, 2010 at 3:01 PM

How clueless must someone be to approve of this clustershag of an administration and congress?

Soon the approval rating will settle in at the aggregate moron line and float there till November.

At least we’ll finally discover what percentage of the population is comprised of morons.

Akzed on May 14, 2010 at 3:02 PM

They’re probably looking hopefully at him as their sugar daddy to bail them out.

jwolf on May 14, 2010 at 2:48 PM

I’m sure Ahnuld is. He conveniently did a 180 recently on Obamacare. I don’t think the state legislature realizes he can’t bail them out. If he does, it’ll create so much animosity between the responsible and irresponsible states that it’ll make the current Arizona controversy look like a lovers’ spat.

Doughboy on May 14, 2010 at 3:02 PM

2012?

Pfffffttt.

Progressives have waited 100 years for this kind of Power…..Nov 2012?

They are NOT worried.

PappyD61 on May 14, 2010 at 3:02 PM

Barack Obama, Hugo Chavez, Fidel Castro and Mahmoud Ahmadinejad have all said the elections were not credible and urged Democrat Senators and Representatives who were fraudulently defeated at the polls to barricade themselves in their offices until Eric Holder, SEIC, ACORN and LaRaza could properly sort everything out.

MB4 on May 14, 2010 at 2:53 PM

Thank you in advance for fueling this evening’s nightmare express./

ontherocks on May 14, 2010 at 3:02 PM

If he fails, PBHO still has a lifetime senate seat in Illinois waiting for him; you can’t cure the stupid which inhabits Chicago.

Bishop on May 14, 2010 at 2:53 PM

No, the Chicago Machine has no use for failures. He would follow Carter’s model and be a self-styled King of the World.

jwolf on May 14, 2010 at 3:03 PM

OT-sorry but, ZOMG maria bartiromo has Big Dawg explaining why a VAT would be ok in conjunction with LOWERING, not eliminating, personal income taxes and corp tax rates, ZOMG the Big Dawg and I may finally be parting ways. well, hubby will be happy he grits his teeth methinks over my inability to see the bad side of Bill.

ginaswo on May 14, 2010 at 3:04 PM

PappyD61 on May 14, 2010 at 3:02 PM

Please elaborate…

Akzed on May 14, 2010 at 3:04 PM

and OT but the idiots at AFLCIO want DHS to stop working with AZ wtf?

ginaswo on May 14, 2010 at 3:05 PM

ginaswo on May 14, 2010 at 3:05 PM

The Constitution requires the fedgov to protect states from invasion. Not that they’re doing it now, which is why AZ passed that law, but I don’t think that they could officially pronounce a state outisde of federal protection. You have to pass a stupid test to get into SEIU.

Akzed on May 14, 2010 at 3:11 PM

I GLAD HE’S FAILING EPICALLY…

Ltlgeneral64 on May 14, 2010 at 3:23 PM

“California (+16.8)”

That is so freaking pathetic. Proof that this state has even further to fall. Californians are still in total denial.

Django on May 14, 2010 at 3:57 PM

I swear I caught 5 minutes of Morning Joe and Newsweek’s matermind editor Meachum (or whatever) was fawning over Messiah’s awesome numbers and Joe was right there nodding in agreement.

Marcus on May 14, 2010 at 4:08 PM

Well, the big difference here and in ’94 was you’ve got me.’ We’re going to see how much difference that makes now.” — Barack Obama

LOL

J_Crater on May 14, 2010 at 4:22 PM

When Barry’s gone, so will the MSM be gone.

BruceB on May 14, 2010 at 4:23 PM

Stop trying to get my hopes up!

KS Rex on May 14, 2010 at 4:26 PM

He’s not planning to win a fair election.

Daggett on May 14, 2010 at 5:53 PM

I finally, after all this time, figured out a prayer I can actually pray.

I have prayed for no harm to come to Obama, always. That is the last thing I would like.

But I can’t bring myself to pray for “wisdom” for him, because I don’t think he’s capable of it, and a little wisdom – if he could do that – isn’t going to help us, but will more likely hurt us.

Sp yesterday it occurred to me: I pray for him to say more of what he really thinks. More and more and more of it. Everything horrendously revealing he’s said to date hasn’t made much of a dint in much of the population, so obviously it’s going to take a lot.

So I will pray every day that he will be more and more candid and forthcoming, to the point where people can no longer ignore what he is, no matter how much they want to.

Alana on May 14, 2010 at 5:58 PM

I finally, after all this time, figured out a prayer I can actually pray.

I have prayed for no harm to come to Obama, always. That is the last thing I would like.

But I can’t bring myself to pray for “wisdom” for him, because I don’t think he’s capable of it, and a little wisdom – if he could do that – isn’t going to help us, but will more likely hurt us.

Sp yesterday it occurred to me: I pray for him to say more of what he really thinks. More and more and more of it. Everything horrendously revealing he’s said to date hasn’t made much of a dint in much of the population, so obviously it’s going to take a lot.

So I will pray every day that he will be more and more candid and forthcoming, to the point where people can no longer ignore what he is, no matter how much they want to.

Alana on May 14, 2010 at 5:58 PM

That, my friend, is an excellent prayer. I’ll join with you.

GrannyDee on May 14, 2010 at 8:07 PM

2012 can’t come soon enough to kick Barry out.

GarandFan on May 15, 2010 at 10:36 AM