Uh oh: Reid making a comeback in Nevada polls?
posted at 6:40 pm on May 13, 2010 by Allahpundit
I can’t handle the thought, especially not with Crist momentarily in the lead in Florida. A victory for one will be all but unendurable, no matter how many seats the GOP picks up in the House. Victories for both? Stone-cold seppuku, my friends.
Wasn’t this moron supposed to be “all but finished”?
Survey results I obtained Tuesday, albeit conducted by a Democratic pollster and ones that go counter to previous public polls (but not some private ones), seem to indicate even without taking the GOP’s temperature that the fever is raging here, too. Lowden losing to Harry Reid for the first time by 5 percentage points (42-37). Danny Tarkanian doing better than Lowden, tied with Reid (37-37). Rory Reid within striking distance of Sandoval in the governor’s race (46-41).
Commenters in Headlines were dumping on me for being gullible enough to cite a poll (a Democratic poll, no less!) being touted by the Las Vegas Sun, especially when Reid himself is barely cracking 40 percent. The thing is, there’s reason to believe that Lowden really has collapsed. Part of the reason we already know, but Dave Weigel fills in the rest of the blanks:
On April 15th, the Tea Party Express brought Sharron Angle, a candidate for the Nevada GOP’s nomination to run against Sen. Harry Reid (D), to its pre-rally news conference. Angle accepted the group’s endorsement in person. The media didn’t much notice. As far as anyone knew, Angle was a frequent candidate — after leaving the state assembly she’d lost bids for state senate and the U.S. Congress — about to be shellacked again.
These days, the polls are telling us another story. Mason-Dixon had Angle at 5 percent before the Tea Party Express event. One month later, her support has quintupled to 25 percent. Sue Lowden, the former state GOP chairwoman and the first candidate on the airwaves, fell from 41 to 30 percent. Danny Tarkanian, a businessman and former basketball player, stalled out at 22 percent. Nevada Republicans now have a 3-way race.
Simply put, after the flameout of Debra Medina in Texas and the struggles of Chuck DeVore in California, it looks like the tea-party candidate is for real this time. She’s been around Nevada politics for awhile too, and with endorsements from people like Mark Levin (and, er, Joe the Plumber), she doesn’t have the same inexperience/name recognition problems that most TP upstarts have had. Given her surge into contention and the grassroots frustration with DeVore’s polling, I wonder if Angle’s about to replace Chuck D. as the righty blogosphere’s new fave. With Dingy Harry stuck at 40 percent and Rubio facing an unpredictable race in Florida, she could wind up being the true tea-party success story in November. Time to take a closer look.
Blowback
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From the HA headlines thread, on topic…
His stench will vaporize his opponents, is more like it.
Schadenfreude on May 13, 2010 at 6:44 PM
That picture of the Reaper makes Pinocchio more than indignant. Mesmerizing!
Schadenfreude on May 13, 2010 at 6:45 PM
poll sniffer
winston on May 13, 2010 at 6:47 PM
Allahpundit, you poll-tease.
portlandon on May 13, 2010 at 6:47 PM
Groan. I was looking forward to a slam dunk election against Reid. This is one of the last places I want a 3 way race to happen.
BadgerHawk on May 13, 2010 at 6:47 PM
All ‘free’ people deserve their ‘leaders’.
Schadenfreude on May 13, 2010 at 6:51 PM
I live in Las Vegas and while there is no guarantee that Harry won’t win (no matter how I try to get rid of them, Nevada still has its share of village idiots), I think you can take this bit of information with a huge grain of salt since it comes from the Harry-supporting left wing Las Vegas Sun newspaper and its leftist reporter Jon Ralston.
I don’t know anyone who likes Harry and will vote for him in the next election so my personal unofficial poll is that Harry is still down in the polls.
desertliving on May 13, 2010 at 6:52 PM
She looks nice… but has already lost two races… of course, if those years were 2006 and 2008 then it’s understandable… but still…
ninjapirate on May 13, 2010 at 6:52 PM
That’s it… quoting a Democrat poll that is a little wacky and goes against all the other polls…
why?
because this allahpundit person is a plant… a CANARD… this allahpundit is here only to piss off the right wingers and get them mad and generate posts… that’s it. PURE PROFIT MOTIVATION to generate traffic and hits and more advertising revenue for the owners of this site. It is good business but crap in reality.
SCREW THIS SITE AND THIS CANARD and BUGGAR ALLAHPUNDIT
PhilipJames on May 13, 2010 at 6:52 PM
What’s three way about it? Reid and the GOP candidate and maybe the fake tea party candidate who I think has been pretty well exposed by now.
fiatboomer on May 13, 2010 at 6:54 PM
No chance. This crook will not be re-elected. He is really one of the most depicable characters ever to walk the Capitol. The real polls show him joining trhe unemployment rolls.
rjoco1 on May 13, 2010 at 6:54 PM
Dude. The chicken’s gonna need surgery at this rate.
fiatboomer on May 13, 2010 at 6:55 PM
There is your answer.
sicoit on May 13, 2010 at 6:56 PM
Damnable polltroon.
Doorgunner on May 13, 2010 at 6:57 PM
Polling – for starters – is highly problematic and a “party poll”, just isn’t worthy of serious consideration. Remember the clown in Massachusetts who had what’s-her-face winning by ten percentage points the day before the election.
Nope. Sorry. I’m not putting much stock in this one, AP.
GoldenEagle4444 on May 13, 2010 at 6:58 PM
The lame stream doing their very best … I will wait for a real poll.
tarpon on May 13, 2010 at 6:59 PM
God help us all if this man is allowed back into the Senate after the election. Dems will definitely take that as a sign we want the “change” they offer.
When will liberal voters wake up and see, they don’t give a fig about you. It’s all just a means to an end. Once these dolts make it to that end, you’ll be all but forgotten, or worse.
capejasmine on May 13, 2010 at 6:59 PM
DUDE! Calm down! In with the good air….out with the bad air….
sicoit on May 13, 2010 at 7:00 PM
Is Reid a Mormon? How many wives?
Cybergeezer on May 13, 2010 at 7:00 PM
As a former Nevada resident, I concur.
TwinkietheKid on May 13, 2010 at 7:00 PM
Please no more Harry Reid.
terryannonline on May 13, 2010 at 7:03 PM
There are no opponents of O-care in America. Never!
No, fellow Democrat members of Congress, I am not scared of losing my seat and neither should you be!
Search for the truth. I tell you things and I always ask you to verify what I say. I told you yesterday that there are no dissatisfied people in America. You can go and visit Nevada. No dissatisfied person there. Mo one at all. There are only supporters of mine and Brack Obama. Everything is okay.
MB4 on May 13, 2010 at 7:04 PM
When we were making the wonderful health care law, when we were writing the rules and reducing the costs the Tea Party people were scratching around in caves. Those Tea Partiers only deserve to be hit with shoes.
MB4 on May 13, 2010 at 7:07 PM
I have been a volunteer for Sharron Angle since 2006 – she is the real deal, as I have been telling Hot Air and Michelle M. for months.
Listen to Mark Levin almost propose to Sharron in his surprise on-air endorsement.
Sharron Angle has won all but one NV GOP county straw poll – neither Lowden nor Tarkanian have won a single county straw poll.
Sharron also won the two recent post-debate straw polls in Reno and Las Vegas.
The national polls are just starting to catch up with what NV GOP primary voters already know – and Sharron has just started her own radio ads (and soon TV ads), while Sue and Danny have been bombarding the airwaves for months.
If you want to see why Nevada loves Sharron, look up “Angle v. Guinn” at SCOTUS, where she single-handedly took all three branches of her own state government to the Supreme Court when they violated their own state constitution trying to raise taxes.
Greta, Sean, et al – wake up and see why Mark Levin wholeheartedly endorsed Sharron Angle.
PS – in 2006 she lost to Dean Heller by less than 1/2 of 1% – 412 votes. She forced Dean to run right, and he has stayed there!!
If anyone genuinely wants to replace Harry Reid with a true-red conservative, check out Sharron’s record.
And check out “Angle v. Guinn” – a great exercise in learning what Article IV, Section 4, means by “Republican form of government.”
fred5678 on May 13, 2010 at 7:07 PM
By my Lord Obama, I think my winning in less than a landslide is rather very unlikely. This talk of my defeat is merely a prattle. The fact is that as soon as my opponents reach Nevada’s borders, we besiege them and slaughter them….Wherever they go in Nevada they will find themselves encircled by millions of my supporters.
MB4 on May 13, 2010 at 7:08 PM
Typo: 421 votes, not 412 – just to be accurate!
fred5678 on May 13, 2010 at 7:08 PM
The Tea Partiers will be burnt. We are going to tackle them. My opponents are committing suicide by the thousands once they enter Nevada. Be assured, my Senate seat is safe, protected.
MB4 on May 13, 2010 at 7:09 PM
Am I reading the post wrong? It looks like there’s a tea party candidate who’s drawing enough support to warrant a 3rd party bid.
BadgerHawk on May 13, 2010 at 7:16 PM
MB4
Delusions of grandeur are terrible things to waste.
volsense on May 13, 2010 at 7:18 PM
TEA Partiers also smell like tourists.
fred5678 on May 13, 2010 at 7:25 PM
The “TEA Party candidate”, Asjanian, is a complete fraud, a likely Reid stunt to dilute votes. Asjanian has been exposed, no worry mate. He commandeered the TEA Party name and filed the next day.
Sharron Angle is the real deal – a VERY conservative Republican.
Listen to the Mark Levin endorsement/interview.
fred5678 on May 13, 2010 at 7:30 PM
I hope the right does not split the vote and hand Reid a victory. That would just be too awful. Really.
Terrye on May 13, 2010 at 7:49 PM
Seems the good people of Nevada have been staying out in the sun too long. Must have too many CA transplants that brought their liberal ways with them.
Kissmygrits on May 13, 2010 at 7:49 PM
Well AP the way you trash the GOP every day what did you expect? Mark Levin, Glenn Beck, and the rest who go after the GOP have laid the ground for an angry voting population to have no place to turn.
Then again with BO in office the talking heads from radio have never had better ratings or had their books sell better. They are making a killing with BO and the dems in power. You guy were bought for a pretty penny.
Jdripper on May 13, 2010 at 7:50 PM
This is just for the primary right? The primary is on June 8th I think.
Terrye on May 13, 2010 at 7:54 PM
SECOND LOOK AT DINGY!!
BacaDog on May 13, 2010 at 7:56 PM
Hope she doesn’t say anything too nutty and do a Debra Medina-style burn & crash.
As for this “story”, just the fact that AP noted it confirms his total idiocy. What does he expect the Democrat PR machine to declare – “Reid’s gonna lose this one bigtime?”.
whatcat on May 13, 2010 at 7:56 PM
Isn’t Angle a Republican? She’ll run against Lowden & Tarkanian for the primary, and whoever wins the nod will gather up most of the other 2′s “not Dingy Harry!” vote.
What am I missing?
cs89 on May 13, 2010 at 8:02 PM
I am from Nevada too. I’ve been here 30 years. It galls me that these three are going to tear each other apart for the nomination leaving the winner weaker in the fight against Reid.
Sharon is the real deal, I agree, but I am not sure she can beat Harry. I won’t ever count him out until the official tally says he’s done.
If Sharon wins the nomination, I will work for her election, but for now I am waiting to see what happens.
Jvette on May 13, 2010 at 8:07 PM
Angle is the real thing. Her biggest problem was name recognition, and that appears to be diminishing by the minute, thanks to people like Allah.
A Sharon Angle victory would be the ultimate repudiation of all things Reid/Pelosi/Obama.
Go Angle!
gaius on May 13, 2010 at 8:07 PM
The real polls show him joining trhe
unemployment rollsunemployed trolls.FIFY.
Archimedes on May 13, 2010 at 8:09 PM
Yes, and early primary voting starts in 9 days. I can’t wait to vote for Sharron.
gaius on May 13, 2010 at 8:12 PM
Angle is a VERY CONSERVATIVE Republican. Known her for 4 years, I’m at her home 2 to 3 times a week stuffing envelopes. Phone was ringing off the hook for interviews today.
She is running in the June 8 NV primary against Lowden, Tarkanian, et al.
Listen to Mark Levin: Support Sharron!!
fred5678 on May 13, 2010 at 8:13 PM
Likewise!
fred5678 on May 13, 2010 at 8:14 PM
Reid and Tarkanian have been beating up on Lowden, and Lowden has been beating up on Reid and Tarkanian, but Sharron has been beating up only on Reid. No one has been attacking Sharron, as she has been 3rd place until now. Danny loves Sharron, Sue is neutral to her.
The all-but-one string of NV GOP county straw poll wins speaks volumes for Sharron – also the two recent post-debate straw poll wins.
WHEN Sharron wins, the whole GOP, all conservatives, and most independents will support her. Bank on it.
Reid makes a GREAT bogeyman to gain national financial support!!
fred5678 on May 13, 2010 at 8:30 PM
Well, I hope you are right. I haven’t decided who I am voting for in the primary, though I am sure that Sharron is the closest to me in political thinking. I want someone who can beat Harry and that is my only interest at this point.
Jvette on May 13, 2010 at 9:18 PM
First of all, AP, we all know that Rand Paul is going to be the true TP success in November, regardless of what happens with Sharron Angle.
Secondly, I am intimately familiar with Las Vegas and Nevada politics. Sue Lowden and her clown campaign manager Bob Uithoven and the rest of his ship of fools at J3 are about to crash and burn. If the GOP puts Lowden up on June 8, Harry Reid will be reelected. Bet your bottom dollar on it.
Angle is the real deal, no doubt about it. But she has a few things going against her. She is not from Vegas, so the majority of voters really don’t know anything about her. Second, Nevada really is a Democratic state, albeit a fairly conservative one. She may well be too right-wing to win independents statewide. Third, the TPX notwithstanding, she has real trouble raising money, something Harry Reid will have plenty of.
All that being said, I think Angle really is the best bet to unseat Reid, who is (never mind the opinions of local amateurs posting here) going to be very difficult to beat in November.
JohnGalt23 on May 13, 2010 at 9:19 PM
Jvette on May 13, 2010 at 10:04 PM
I have no problem with that.
No thanks. My bread isn’t buttered on that side and Allah has pledged his body to Meggie McCain.
29Victor on May 13, 2010 at 10:31 PM
Looks like that is changing fast – and most of that recent increase was BEFORE her recently-started billboard, radio and TV ad campaign. And, of course, she is very well known in northern and rural Nevada, which supplies 48% of GOP primary votes versus Las Vegas’s 52%. I wouldn’t be surprised that that ratio holds in the general, with mid-term apathetic Dems. in Vegas and enthusiastic Republicans, conservatives and fiscally conservative independents in northern and rural areas.
I’ll bet that being very (fiscally) conservative wins against spendthrift Harry this year – think many unemployed will be voting for more spending??
And amnesty-loving Harry is on the wrong side of illegal immigration, also. Strike two.
The general election will be the biggest national race – bar none. We can’t get rid of Obama or Pelosi, so … lots of national $$$, including from Hot Air readers, will pitch in.
Reid will be vicious, but Angle has stood up to both political and physical(!!) strong-arming. Besides, she has held state weightlifting records and occasionally packs a 44 Magnum.
As a campaign worker since Judd Gregg’s FATHER’s race in 1959, and Goldwater in ’64, and now Sharron’s, I look forward to this race!!
fred5678 on May 14, 2010 at 12:11 AM
Pollish Jokes were out in the 70′s!
landlines on May 14, 2010 at 1:30 AM
The Democrats have made a political issue of a valid method of commerce. Has no one here heard of Tradebank?
Seems the issue would be important enough for the Republicans to push back, citing the farmers, ranchers and small business people who regularly barter for medical and veterinary services.
eaglesdontflock on May 14, 2010 at 3:25 AM
Step one in election fraud:
Set up the expectation that the fraudster will win with fraudulent polls.
That way when the dead people, illegal aliens, out of state voters and DNC-approved hackers stuff the electronic ballot boxes, people can rest assured that the results were “expected”.
Spartacus on May 14, 2010 at 8:46 AM
When you deal with evil of this magnitude in Reid, nothing is off the table. After this election, with its ultimate importance, we are going to see where there is no hope for our country’s future. If Reid, Crist and Boxer are re-elected, its the continuance of the dismantling of our way of life.
volsense on May 14, 2010 at 8:56 AM
There’s something fishy about this poll, even though it was cited by RealClearPolitics.com. Compared to the previous poll, in the GOP primary it shows Angle going from 5% to 25%, and Lowden going from 45% to 30%. This would be a huge swing, but it’s too big to be believable–did someone who favors Angle and Reid deliberately skew the sample?
The last Rasmussen poll (which can usually be trusted) taken on April 29 showed Lowden 52 Reid 39, Tarkanian 51 Reid 41, and Angle 48 Reid 40. Did Lowden commit some huge gaffe to go from a 13-point lead to a 5-point deficit against Reid in two weeks? Or is somebody fudging the numbers to confuse the GOP electorate and get Reid elected?
Steve Z on May 14, 2010 at 10:06 AM
Reid maxes out at 42%?
He’s done.
forest on May 14, 2010 at 10:59 AM
And next earlier Rasmussen (published 4/5) had Angle passing Tarkanian for 1st time to go into 2nd place against Reid:
500 Likely Voters, 3/31/2009
Sue Lowden (R) 54%
Harry Reid (D) 39%
Some other candidate 4%
Not sure 2%
Danny Tarkanian (R) 49%
Harry Reid (D) 42%
Some other candidate 6%
Not sure 2%
Sharron Angle (R) 51%
Harry Reid (D) 40%
Some other candidate 6%
Not sure 3%
There was that thing about a chicken – sort of like Dean’s yeahah!! moment a few years ago. Leno and Reid have been merciless on this.
I have never believed that a 600 sample count done by phone book and randomizing 4 digits was terribly accurate. Nevada has many different political areas. It’s a BIG state!!
The GOP county straw polls have been near unanimous for Angle over 3 months – and last few weeks both debate/polls were won by Angle.
I suspect early lead by Lowden was just relentless TV ad puffery, showing up in telephone polls and temporary name recognition. And earlier Mason-Dixon just didn’t jibe with Angle’s near clean sweep of all county straw polls (of only active Republicans).
fred5678 on May 14, 2010 at 2:22 PM