Emmer out to early lead in MN Governor race
posted at 1:36 pm on May 7, 2010 by Ed Morrissey
A new KSTP poll gives Democrats some bad news on the big statewide race in Minnesota. Without Obama on the top of the ticket and no US Senate seats at risk in this cycle, the Republicans appear to have a big advantage in the governor’s race. Tom Emmer leads all potential Democratic candidates (called DFL in Minnesota) outside the margins of error:
Election day is six months away, but for now it appears Democrats won’t have an easy time in their attempt to win the Minnesota governor’s office for the first time in 24 years.
Exclusive 5 EYEWITNESS NEWS-SurveyUSA poll results show Republican Tom Emmer as the early front-runner in three hypothetical races.
His lead coincides with a surge in Minnesota voters who self-identify themselves as Republicans. …
According to the poll of 588 registered voters who say they’re likely to vote, Emmer leads [DFL-endorsed candidate Margaret Anderson] Kelliher 41 to 33 percent. [Independence Party candidate Tom] Horner is at 9 percent. Another 17 percent are undecided.
Democrats will have a primary fight, which Republicans avoided with a consensus endorsement on the third ballot of the GOP state convention a week ago. Kelliher will have to fight Matt Entenza and former US Senator Mark Dayton for the nomination, with the primary scheduled for August. That means Democrats will be hammering each other more than Emmer and will mainly erode their own standing until just a few weeks before the general election.
Even further bad news is that all three Democrats do equally well against Emmer. In all three matchups, Emmer wins 41% or 42% of the vote. Dayton trails Emmer 42/34, while Entenza trails 42/31. In a surprising development, Emmer even beats Kelliher among women, 39/36, even though Kelliher has a shot at being Minnesota’s first female Governor.
The poll has one more piece of bad news for the DFL as a whole. According to the KSTP poll, Republicans have a one-point edge among likely voters, 36/35, with 24% identifying as independents. I don’t have any historical information on that, but I’d be surprised if the GOP has ever had that kind of advantage in this state. The Tea Party movement has shown remarkable strength in a state considered to be one of the homes of Midwestern progressivism, and it could be that this state may turn a very reddish-purple in constitutional offices in November.
Blowback
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That dumb Sarah Palin. What was she thinking endorsing a potential winner like Emmer?
Doughboy on May 7, 2010 at 1:39 PM
this is step 1 to making up for the big franken deal
TheVer on May 7, 2010 at 1:44 PM
Minnesota’s third-party candidates are always worth watching. Ed, in your opinion, will Horner hurt the DFL or the GOP more?
NebCon on May 7, 2010 at 1:45 PM
He hasn’t been Palinized has he?
Give it time, aren’t Minnesota voters that elected Paul “do it for Paul, do it for Paul” Wellstone and Al Franken?
Common sense is traditionally in short supply up there in that rare air.
PappyD61 on May 7, 2010 at 1:47 PM
What does DFL stand for? My guess is Dumb F’n Liberals.
farright on May 7, 2010 at 1:47 PM
Man….great minds think alike. Ya beat me to it!
sicoit on May 7, 2010 at 1:50 PM
DFL = Democratic-Farmer-Labor party (it’s the Dems)
mydh12 on May 7, 2010 at 1:52 PM
Awesome. Maybe he can protect our northern borders from the pesky Canadians.
seven on May 7, 2010 at 1:53 PM
Even before the state supreme court dropped their deficit bomb (by invalidating previous cuts,) Emmer was talking about doing some serious zero-based budgeting. Maybe people were listening. There’s plenty of fat and duplication there to cut, especially in times like this. Emmer’s the only one not offering more of the same, and more of the same means more debt.
RBMN on May 7, 2010 at 1:54 PM
I think Emmer has a real shot especially against Kelliher who is about the worst candidate the DFL could have endorsed – good for us though.
Dayton is doomed with his Millionaire tax
Long time to November but I feel better about keeping the Governor in our hands than I have in a long time.
gophergirl on May 7, 2010 at 1:55 PM
Yeah, Palin is sooooo stoooooopid, right Flicker, PRino, BSite?
Just thought I’d get that in before they come here from the RS thread and contaminate it…
davek70 on May 7, 2010 at 1:56 PM
Minnesota is facing some tough economic blow. Healthcare trafficking is about to be halted. (Folks from Canadia going to the Mayo Clinic for quality and rapid healthcare.)
seven on May 7, 2010 at 1:58 PM
Emmer must have used big cartoons…
Odie1941 on May 7, 2010 at 2:00 PM
0_0
Look for Canadian ‘medical coyotes’ to appear in the near future.
Dark-Star on May 7, 2010 at 2:00 PM
Probably the DFL. The GOP will be fired up and Tea Party independents looking to push back against Dems. Those independents looking away from the GOP will go to Horner — although I think he’ll be lucky to get 10% in the general election in any case.
Ed Morrissey on May 7, 2010 at 2:08 PM
Hey, never underestimate the chance of another stolen election from the same folks that brought you Sen. Franken…..just sayin.
search4truth on May 7, 2010 at 2:13 PM
I think Tom Horner will hurt neither side. You normally have to put a mirror up to his nose to tell if he’s still breathing. He’s just that exciting.
RBMN on May 7, 2010 at 2:18 PM
Wow, finally something not embarassing out of our state. I like Emmer, he’s the real deal.
GO TWINS!!!
Nelsen on May 7, 2010 at 2:20 PM
41 or 42% do not a majority make in Minnesota. Emmer had better be careful about the Lizard People vote!
Steve Z on May 7, 2010 at 2:20 PM
I’ve said this before.
D = Democratic, like democratically elected Hugo, Huessin, etc.
F = Farmer, the sickle.
L = Labor, the hammer.
Now where have you seen the hammer and sickle? Catching on? That’s the DFL in MN.
Mirimichi on May 7, 2010 at 2:26 PM
Emmer is very well situated. His DFL opponents are going to be throwing haymakers at each other until August and he’ll be able to go about his business. He’s also the best stump speaker we’ve had in Minnesota in a long time.
And in a totally unintended way, the State Supreme Court did Emmer a huge favor this week when they ruled out the “unallotment” that T-Paw used last year to balance the budget. Now the DFL’s various constituencies will all be expecting their “full funding,” but there’s no money and Margaret Anderson-Kelliher will have to explain that to the baying jackals in her caucus. And if she tries to raise taxes, T-Paw is just going to smile and break out his veto pen. Meanwhile, her primary opponents are two sour-faced limousine liberals.
Mr. D on May 7, 2010 at 2:31 PM
Palin Power
unseen on May 7, 2010 at 2:34 PM
He’s already told his cabinet to start working on a plan to shut the MN government down.
Heads will explode on the left, but he literally has to do so. MN government has to have a balanced budget. It’s in our constitution.
strictnein on May 7, 2010 at 2:57 PM
Palin praised on this post…..bashed on the Fiorina post. At some point can’t we throw our hands up in the air and say, Sarah knows what she is doing, let’s give her the benefit of the doubt. And as she has said many times before, no candidate is perfect. Winning is important. We can’t always simply use a lithmus test. Should everyone be like Mittens who sees how the wind is blowing to determine who he or she will support. I don’t think so. Real leaders are decisive. Real leaders take a stand and real leaders win.
Dan Pet on May 7, 2010 at 3:04 PM
Plus….my gut is telling me that something is brewing with Devore and this potential impropriety of using state workers as staffers. I wouldn’t be surprised if Palin is using ethics as a basis for her decision.
Dan Pet on May 7, 2010 at 3:06 PM
Buy this man a frosty beverage! Post of the decade!
Sarah was right on Emmer and Sarah is right on Carly.
Leaders look at the big picture, Sarah is not playing small ball here. She’s playing chess, while everyone else is playing checkers.
Trust the woman. No one else has better political instincts.
BTW, ask old Chuck about his FEC violations.
gary4205 on May 7, 2010 at 3:13 PM
Gee another blue state from 2008. And Al Franken.
I’d say they deserve more Jackass party rule.
DavidM on May 7, 2010 at 3:31 PM
Just like with Franken, Minnesota will blow this one and elect a fool. Every person in that state should be deported to Cuba, every last one.
Bishop on May 7, 2010 at 3:31 PM
Even a stupid broken clock is right twice day. Big whoop.
Yes, she is an excellent cynical politician like her dirtbag mentor, Backdoor John McCain. That’s what we need more of. Hello GOP support for Obama amnesty. Keep following your sheep dog.
austinnelly on May 7, 2010 at 4:09 PM
I don’t know if anyone’s caught onto this yet, but you do know what the proper term for a female dog of any breed is? The word that rhymes with ‘witch’?
Perhaps the ‘sheep dog’ meme ought to be dropped entirely…
Dark-Star on May 7, 2010 at 4:23 PM
Don’t forget to nuke Minnesota back to the Stone Age. That’s what Percy would have wanted.
Mr. D on May 7, 2010 at 4:27 PM
Hey we got Bachman in our district. Not everyone here’s a complete loon, only the folk in St Paul, Minneapolis, Duluth, and the Iron Range which, unfortunately, is a large chunk of the state.
Nelsen on May 7, 2010 at 4:32 PM
Most all of my friends and co-workers are Big Donks.
They think they are on their way to a 56-40-4 win.
They have no clue what’s coming both in Minny and nationwide in November.
They still have the vapors from Hope and Change.
Bruno Strozek on May 7, 2010 at 4:50 PM
RBMN on May 7, 2010 at 1:54 PM
How can the MN Supreme Court enforce that ruling? For that matter, how can the DFL House speaker reinstate those cuts?
BradSchwartze on May 7, 2010 at 4:54 PM
PALIN POWER!
technopeasant on May 7, 2010 at 5:24 PM
Drudge links to a Pawlenty budget bankruptcy preparation story today. As the state’s chief executive last year, since his legislature didn’t cooperate, he made determinations and budget cuts independently himself. Some bureaucrats cut are now suing him or the state. Q: If Minnesota’s budget looks overspent while taxes were lowered, how will that fiscally liberal spending economic experience reflect on Pawlenty’s future potus bid résumé?
maverick muse on May 7, 2010 at 5:29 PM