WaPo/ABC poll: Dems trusted more than Republicans …

posted at 8:48 am on April 28, 2010 by Ed Morrissey

Just five days ago, Gallup’s quarterly survey showed that the gap in partisan identification and leaners in the general American population had narrowed to a single point, down 12 points over the last year of Hope and Change. At the time, I wondered whether the media pollsters would get the message. I needn’t have wondered. Today’s Washington Post/ABC poll offers Democrats some bad news, but they’ve managed to artificially temper it by actually adding a point to the partisan gap in their sample since the last survey:

Members of Congress face the most anti-incumbent electorate since 1994, with less than a third of all voters saying they are inclined to support their representatives in November, according to a new Washington Post-ABC News poll.

Dissatisfaction is widespread, crossing party lines, ideologies and virtually all groups of voters. Less than a quarter of independents and just three in 10 Republicans say they’re leaning toward backing an incumbent this fall. Even among Democrats, who control the House, the Senate and the White House, opinion is evenly divided on the question. …

Still, for President Obama and his party, there are some positive signs in the poll. The public trusts Democrats more than Republicans to handle the major problems facing the country by a double-digit margin, giving Democrats a bigger lead than they held two months ago, when Congress was engaged in the long endgame over divisive health-care legislation. A majority continues to see Obama as “just about right” ideologically, despite repeated GOP efforts to define the president as outside the mainstream.

Those polled also say they trust Obama over Republicans in Congress to deal with the economy, health care and, by a large margin, financial regulatory reform. And the president continues to get positive marks on his overall job performance, with, for the first time since the fall, a majority of independents approving. Disaffection among independents with Obama’s policies has been one of the major shifts in public opinion over the past year, making this small movement one to monitor over the coming months.

Why did Obama and the Democrats still manage to hold more trust over their GOP opponents?  The pollster talked to more of them, that’s how — and more of them than they did in the last poll, relative to Republicans.  In the March 26th poll, the WaPo/ABC sample had a D/R/I split of 34/24/38, giving Democrats a partisan advantage of 10 points in the poll.  This time, the sample’s split went 34/23/38, and even the independents split in favor of the Democrats, 19/17, up from 17/17 last month.  Just to give some perspective, the partisan gap from their November 2008 poll just before the election was nine points — and 26% of the sample was Republicans, compared to 23% now.

Given the expanding partisan gap shown in this poll, small wonder that Obama winds up with more trust than Republicans among respondents.  It’s also no mystery why the WaPo/ABC poll shows Obama adding to his job approval rating, 54/44, when every other pollster has Obama sinking.  That ten-point swing  in the sample makes quite a difference.

It also makes a big difference in the consolation news the Post and ABC offered Democrats.  The 46/32 split for Dems on trust by party shows that Democrats would be considerably narrower than the 14-point lead this survey shows.  The eleven point lead that Obama has over the GOP for trust on the economy would be completely gone, and the 4-point edge Obama enjoys over Republicans on the deficit would have more than reversed itself.

Consider the ten-point partisan gap fudge when looking at these numbers on the issues, too:

  • Economy – 49/49 approval
  • Health care – 49/49
  • Federal deficit – 40/55
  • Financial regulation – 48/48

One can see why the WaPo/ABC poll overcounts Democrats.  Without them, Obama’s numbers would utterly collapse.

Update: Reid Wilson warns Democrats about the “fed-up electorate” in his National Journal analysis of the poll.


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Useful idiots doing what useful idiots do.

Disturb the Universe on April 28, 2010 at 8:50 AM

They have a duty to misinform.

the_nile on April 28, 2010 at 8:52 AM

Wondering: Would Republicans do better in these polls if more of them didn’t have jobs and, therefore, had more time to talk to pollsters?

apostic on April 28, 2010 at 8:52 AM

Isn’t there a name for people who are consistently not being honest with themselves? Oh yeah….delusional. I hear they make pills that can cure that. November is really gonna leave a huge mark on the LSM and the Dems in general.

Johnnyreb on April 28, 2010 at 8:53 AM

Hey, let’s overcount Republicans next election so we can win. Perfect.

Mojave Mark on April 28, 2010 at 8:53 AM

The pollster talked to more of them, that’s how — and more of them than they did in the last poll, relative to Republicans.

bill bennet was talking about this poll this am, I wonder if he read the fine print…he sounded dumbfounded that dear leader’s numbers looked good…

chrissy and the rest of msdnc are going to be touting this poll ALL day long…

cmsinaz on April 28, 2010 at 8:54 AM

NOVEMBER!!!!!!

And all hands on deck!!!!

PappyD61 on April 28, 2010 at 8:54 AM

I guess integrity is optional when there’s news to be created.

Slublog on April 28, 2010 at 8:55 AM

when i heard that dear leader was more trusted than the GOP, about had a heart attack….

HUH?????? DOES NOT COMPUTE

cmsinaz on April 28, 2010 at 8:56 AM

This means the GOP is actually ahead on these issues.

Weak tea, WaPo/cBS.

Good Lt on April 28, 2010 at 8:56 AM

Love the caption.

rollthedice on April 28, 2010 at 8:56 AM

Thanks Ed, now I know what if feels like to have hot coffee shoot out of my nose. Love the headline…comedy gold!

milwife88 on April 28, 2010 at 8:57 AM

Shhhhh! Everyone keep quiet and let them keep believing this, at least until November 3.

obladioblada on April 28, 2010 at 8:57 AM

I don’t understand how Nixon won. Nobody I know voted for him.
– Pauline Kael, NY Times editor after the 1972 election when Nixon won 49 states.

angryed on April 28, 2010 at 8:57 AM

Instead of the old saying, All the news that’s fit to print, now it’s All the news that we can make up.

kingsjester on April 28, 2010 at 8:57 AM

angryed on April 28, 2010 at 8:57 AM

here’s hoping chrissy and olby say the same thing this november….

cmsinaz on April 28, 2010 at 8:58 AM

Bill Bennett was using this poll as his own personal Wailing Wall all morning. On some issues the man is smart, but he refused to look deep into this poll before using it to justify every action of the Obama Administration.

myrenovations on April 28, 2010 at 9:01 AM

Media malpractice.

The good ol’ days of basic media liberal bias are long passed.

forest on April 28, 2010 at 9:01 AM

Oh boy the pollsters are bailing the sunk ship Democrat now …

Why does the media use polls to tell their lies? It’s easy …

So what changed?

tarpon on April 28, 2010 at 9:02 AM

Rasmussen generic is +6 this week…Republican. So take these numbers and subtract 16 from the Democrat “advantage” and there ya go. Real results.

Seriously, what kind of dumb@$$ reads the Washington Post? Well, fewer and fewer according to the latest circulation numbers.

MNHawk on April 28, 2010 at 9:03 AM

Looking at all the other polls on changes in party ID and enthusiasm, this one is what is known as an outliar. ;0)

obladioblada on April 28, 2010 at 9:03 AM

Hmmm, hate to be paranoid here, but 1) is this a preemptive attempt to provide cover for the Fascist-Democrats to play shenanigans with the election (See, the electorate isn’t to dissatisfied, and the election followed that) or 2) is this a set up to allow the Fascist-Democrats to claim “fraud” after the electoral drubbing.

I cannot accept that at this point in time, with decades of polling, and constant refining of polling, that this is just sloppy work.

rbj on April 28, 2010 at 9:03 AM

An 11-point edge for Dems? Please. Even Gibbs doesn’t believe that.

Doughboy on April 28, 2010 at 9:03 AM

How on earth could they think that misleading the Dems on their support could help them in ANY way whatsoever. They are only making the blowout in November even more shocking to Dems. Fine by me.

Youngs98 on April 28, 2010 at 9:05 AM

When you absolutely, positively, need to score points with the nutroots nazi’s:

Cybergeezer on April 28, 2010 at 9:05 AM

Useful idiots doing what useful idiots do.

Yup.

gocatholic on April 28, 2010 at 9:07 AM

Man, are they going to be surprised in November. I hope they don’t actually believe in their own propoganda, because we might see some of these guys actually lose it while reporting election results.

“Chicago is out??!?”

Mord on April 28, 2010 at 9:09 AM

What definitely can’t be trusted is the Washington Post/ABC Poll. The propaganda from these two is only paled by that of the New York Times. Only brainwashed lemmings with single digit IQs would recognize their existence.

volsense on April 28, 2010 at 9:11 AM

Polls used to be used to reflect public opinion; now they are used to drive punlic opinion. What could be wrong with a poll conducted for (in Sarah Palin terminology) quote unquote reputable lamestream media giants like ABC News and the Washington Post.

bw222 on April 28, 2010 at 9:11 AM

WHile the Dems may hope these polls help in Nov. The mass exodus of incumbants tells me otherwise.

Of course the Dem strategy will be to run another Dem, and tote the anti-Rep party line, regardless of the fact a Dem incumbant will not be popular.

Thats what they hope to fish with these polls – political association “for Dems”

I would short that bet.

Odie1941 on April 28, 2010 at 9:14 AM

It’s true.

Even as a hard-edged conservative, I “trust” the Democrats more than the Republicans.

The Democrats can be trusted to consistently lie, obfuscute, cloak earmark skullduggery behind a scrim of false altruism, and feloniously feather their own nests, and line their pockets, at every single opportuinity.

With the Republicans, however, it’s a crapshoot. Fifty percent of them behave exactly as the Democrats, and the other fity percent act like Democrats only half of the time.

Doorgunner on April 28, 2010 at 9:20 AM

I actually like polls like this. It keeps the Democrats from pulling out the big guns of racial demagoguery and class warfare to maintain their political advantages. (Well, far more than they use it today.)

Keep them feeling overconfident..

Nethicus on April 28, 2010 at 9:21 AM

Rasmussen generic is +6 this week…Republican. So take these numbers and subtract 16 from the Democrat “advantage” and there ya go. Real results.

Actually the +6 refers to the generic ballot (will you vote Dem or Repub), not party ID (are you a Dem or Repub). I think Rasmussen still gives a slight edge to Dems on ID. So it’s more like subtract 10, not 16.

Jon0815 on April 28, 2010 at 9:22 AM

I cannot accept that at this point in time, with decades of polling, and constant refining of polling, that this is just sloppy work.

rbj on April 28, 2010 at 9:03 AM

Of course it’s deliberate! Deliberate, pathetic and desperate…oh, one more too: funny as all getout!

Chewy the Lab on April 28, 2010 at 9:25 AM

It could have been higher if they used the Dems favorite voter…dead people.

faol on April 28, 2010 at 9:27 AM

Campaign bucks from Goldman Sachs: $1 million

Campaign cash from unions: $60 million

Fake polling from MediaCrats: Priceless!

——————————————————

I started reading the Post, but quickly went to the internals before the third paragraph. Quickly noted the Dem advantage was better than this same poll had it the day before the Nov 2008 election! Then I noted they had Independents’ leaning virtually unchanged: they leaned Dem by 3 pts in Nov ’08. If we believed this poll, it has Indies leaning Dem by 2 pts today. Amazing!

Perhaps they didn’t include Virginia, New Jersey or Massachussetts in their sample?

jeanneb on April 28, 2010 at 9:28 AM

WaPo/ABC poll: Dems trusted more than Republicans …

POLL ALSO SAYS STRONG MAJORITY BELIEVE GM IS NO LONGER IN DEBT

Rovin on April 28, 2010 at 9:30 AM

In the March 26th poll, the WaPo/ABC sample had a D/R/I split of 34/24/38, giving Democrats a partisan advantage of 10 points in the poll. This time, the sample’s split went 34/23/38, and even the independents split in favor of the Democrats, 19/17, up from 17/17 last month. Just to give some perspective, the partisan gap from their November 2008 poll just before the election was nine points — and 26% of the sample was Republicans, compared to 23% now.

Since they don’t want to risk their own total humiliation and reputations, their final polls in October just prior to election day will have a far more accurate sampling breakdown. But if during the summer or in September they came out with a poll that had a breakdown of D/R/I that came out to something like 45/8/40 in hopes of at least push-polling the Democratic base to get excited about November, would anyone really be all that surprised?

jon1979 on April 28, 2010 at 9:32 AM

Is this a late April Fools Day joke???

Lady Heather on April 28, 2010 at 9:33 AM

This poll makes perfect sense.

To Mark Halperin.

fogw on April 28, 2010 at 9:34 AM

This poll is good news. Lull the dems into a false sense of security. WaPo is only doing us a favor by the fudging numbers. This can only depresses dem voter turnout in November due to overconfidence.

If Jug Ears is still trying to rally the base after this poll, it means he doesn’t believe it either.

veni vidi vici on April 28, 2010 at 9:34 AM

O/T: Beck is spilling the beans about a vote in Congress on Puerto Rico this Thursday.

kingsjester on April 28, 2010 at 9:39 AM

If these national polls were accurate, we would not be seeing incumbent Democrats like Harry Reid and Arlen Specter losing.

This reminds me so much of 1980, when the Post and the New York Times ran poll after poll attemtping to show Jimmy Carter ahead of Ronald Reagan and Democrats leading on the generic ballot. The Boston Globe was practially an in-house campaign orgam for the Carter campaign. I was living in Cambridge at the time and I was completely shocked on Election Night, not only with Reagan winning in a landslide, but giants like Birch Bayh and George McGovern losing in the Senate as well.

Liberals love to bury their heads in the sand when they are going down. When the public turns against them they really don’t know what to do, so they go into denial and call in their media lapdogs to create false polls and false issues like a “Nazi” law in Arizona.

This game is over already and all that is going to be decided in November is the margin of the conservative victory. That is why we are already hearing talk about Democeratrs trying to push an immigration bill through after the elections in a lame duck session. They know they aren’t going to be in power anymore come January.

rockmom on April 28, 2010 at 9:39 AM

..here I go with my broken record: It’s the echo chamber. folks. We want them Dems to be nice and warm and cozy when the snows fly in November. So we have them put on their jammies with the bunny feet, tuck them into a nice warm blankie and give them a nice warm bottle of J.D. to sip on and play a little lullaby for them..

“..Obama says everything will be all right because the Hispanics and Blacks and wimmin who voted for him last time will come to your rescue, a vast army led by cousin Pookey..so sweet dreams and you will wake up on November 3rd to a beautiful dawn in a world where there’s nothing but Unicorns crapping skittles.”

The War Planner on April 28, 2010 at 9:41 AM

O/T: Beck is spilling the beans about a vote in Congress on Puerto Rico this Thursday.

kingsjester on April 28, 2010 at 9:39 AM

Never gonna happen. PR gets all the benefits of state as it is. But residents of PR pay no federal income tax. Why would anyone want to vote themselves a new income tax by becoming a state?

angryed on April 28, 2010 at 9:48 AM

I saw let the Dems think they’ll do OK in November for as long as possible.

If there is hope they will govern more rationally trying not to do anything radical for the rest of the year. If they know all hope is lost, they will continue to go to the extreme far left with amnesty, capntax and god knows what else for the rest of the year.

angryed on April 28, 2010 at 9:51 AM

I say, not I saw.

angryed on April 28, 2010 at 9:51 AM

We need more of this. Don’t complain – just report it.

The truth will come out in the November elections.
This just give the Pubs more reason to turn out in droves.

connertown on April 28, 2010 at 10:00 AM

kingsjester on April 28, 2010 at 9:39 AM

Doesn’t Puerto Rico usually vote against becoming a state?

Cindy Munford on April 28, 2010 at 10:00 AM

Pravda would approve.

Del Dolemonte on April 28, 2010 at 10:00 AM

I’ve pretty much written off Washington Post polls since the one they had at the height of the healthcare debate showing public support for the bill. For better polls, I rely on Rasmussen and RCP.

olesparkie on April 28, 2010 at 10:01 AM

Cindy Munford on April 28, 2010 at 10:00 AM

This bill will force them to continue to hold votes on it until they vote in the affirmative. The politicians will entice the poor folks over there with the Federal money which will pour in afterwards. More info about it at the link.

kingsjester on April 28, 2010 at 10:03 AM

Can I ask the questions and decide on the sample?……..a joke!

lilium on April 28, 2010 at 10:05 AM

Manufacturing opinion to appease a mad man.

Imagine if journalists had no more fear, either of the truth or of President Obama.

You may say I’m a dreamer, but I’m not the only one.

jeff_from_mpls on April 28, 2010 at 10:16 AM

Next time they might as well just poll Obama’s immediate family.

Hey, whatever it takes…we’ve GOT to make our Dear Leader feel good about himself!

Justrand on April 28, 2010 at 10:21 AM

Such poorly conducted polls are a good thing. As with the media telling us all that we are racists, homophobes and violent–despite what we know about ourselves and fellow tea partiers from actual experience–this kind of pissing in the wind will do nothing but spawn Democrat complacency.

Enough of the polls. Only November counts…so MAKE IT COUNT! Save the country from these freaks.

PD Quig on April 28, 2010 at 10:25 AM

Hey – numbers don’t lie, you know. /sarc

rockbend on April 28, 2010 at 10:25 AM

Wondering: Would Republicans do better in these polls if more of them didn’t have jobs and, therefore, had more time to talk to pollsters?

It’s got nothing to do with having jobs. This kind of polling just keeps making calls until they have the split that they want. You will never see one of the MSM polls that shows a true split that really looks like the electorate. They’re always along the lines of 40/30/30. As independents break even more away from dems side (even though that well has just about dried up), you’ll see less of them being polled.

slug on April 28, 2010 at 10:26 AM

?……..a joke!

lilium on April 28, 2010 at 10:05 AM

Oh, that it most definitely is.

I would feel an awful lot better about the media, and the world in general, if I thought liberals had any sense of humor. They’re always funny, but they’re never in the least bit witty.

logis on April 28, 2010 at 10:27 AM

This kind of polling just keeps making calls until they have the split that they want.
slug on April 28, 2010 at 10:26 AM

I only got one polling call in my life. I gave what was apparently considered the “wrong” answer and, believe it or not, the dork actually tried to ARGUE with me about it.

I really don’t get that. Why bother taking the poll in the first place? Why the heck don’t they just make up the numbers from scratch?

I really don’t believe that liberals every do anything “intentionally.” And I don’t mean that in a good way; they’re simply not capable of formulating an intent for good or ill. They’re pretty much on auto pilot.

Liberal bias is so ingrained that they simply can’t imagine that anyone really disagrees with them. It’s like Ayn Rand said: liberals use subjective, not objective thought. If the data doesn’t confirm liberals’ assumptions, it would never in a million years occur to them to change the assumptions; they just keep gathering more data until it matches their preconceived opinion.

logis on April 28, 2010 at 10:36 AM

The story of ‘Obama is still popular’ will continue till Nov, 2010 election.

After Dems / incumbents get trounced, the narrative will then become Minorities and Young got disenfranchised.

Seriously, Obama and his co. are doing everything to sow the seeds of division and discontent amongst the people. Chaos is their goal. It is very clear to me now.

Sir Napsalot on April 28, 2010 at 10:39 AM

The Ministry of Truth says that the trustworthiness of the Party is exemplary in its war with Eastasia….

The System….is working.

ted c on April 28, 2010 at 10:42 AM

eh… *munch…crunch* that’s what you get suffering from group think….unrealistic numbers….

CynicalOptimist on April 28, 2010 at 10:44 AM

When all else fails, fudge the numbers.

They have learned well from their Democrat overlords.

29Victor on April 28, 2010 at 10:48 AM

Instead of the old saying, All the news that’s fit to print, now it’s All the news that we can make up.

kingsjester on April 28, 2010 at 8:57 AM

November 3: All the news that gives us fits to print!

Steve Z on April 28, 2010 at 10:52 AM

This game is over already and all that is going to be decided in November is the margin of the conservative victory. That is why we are already hearing talk about Democeratrs trying to push an immigration bill through after the elections in a lame duck session. They know they aren’t going to be in power anymore come January.

rockmom on April 28, 2010 at 9:39 AM

Thanks to Scott Brown, all the Republicans would have to do during a lame-duck session is filibuster everything in the Senate until the new Congress is seated in January 2011.

We really need to fear what the Democrats might do BEFORE the elections, like giving voting rights to illegal aliens and statehood to Puerto Rico. Maybe that’s what Obama meant by his remark about 57 states! Maybe Guam will become a state if it doesn’t capsize!

Steve Z on April 28, 2010 at 11:04 AM

Where was the poll taken, in Pelosi’s district?

pilamaye on April 28, 2010 at 11:08 AM

Mord on April 28, 2010 at 9:09 AM

I would love to see them lose it. I’d like to see them blubbering like the pathetic jerks they are. Hopefully we will. However, I don’t feel nearly so confident as many here seem to feel about a conservative tsunami in November. The fact that I still see Obama stickers on cars regularly each day, here, in Franklin, Tennessee, gives me great pause. How anyone who is paying the least bit of attention can still advertise that they voted for Obama and the Dems is beyond me. And one need only leave the ‘conservative’ nooks of the blogosphere to have the fear of God put in them. There are a lot of morons out there. Our only hope is that the hyphenated Americans Obama called out in that video the other day are not paying attention and stay home this time. Without a cool historic ‘rock star’ running, maybe they will. *prays*

pannw on April 28, 2010 at 11:12 AM

So, even after polling substantially more Dems than Republicans, the Dems only eek out a 1% lead.

Does anyone really want to make a bet on what will happen in November?

I see a takeaway of the House as a virtual certainty and the Senate a strong likelihood.

The Obama/Pelosi/Reid brand is toxic.

molonlabe28 on April 28, 2010 at 12:11 PM

pannw on April 28, 2010 at 11:12 AM

Yesterday I saw a dirty semi-truck on the freeway with IMPEACH OBAMA finger-written on the back. I thought it was interesting that someone who took the time to finger-write didn’t go with WASH ME, or any of the usual stuff. It made my heart sing. Granted, I’m in Texas – where the Obama stickers have pretty much disappeared, but maybe that truck will make a cross-country drive before it gets washed. Stay strong, and keep praying!

redwhiteblue on April 28, 2010 at 12:29 PM

Gallup called Monday I think. I guess I should have stopped working and taken the call.

Maybe fewer Republicans are sitting around unemployed waiting for the phone to ring?

Neo on April 28, 2010 at 1:05 PM

Just remember these propaganda polls after the deluge this November. The democraps will be able to use them as toilet paper and tissue paper.
Ed didn’t mention what the sample consisted of, all adults, registered voters or likely voters. That too makes a very big difference.

eaglewingz08 on April 28, 2010 at 1:29 PM

Nothing can be trusted that the Washingtoon Post puts out. Except maybe for yesterdays “Obama touts wind energy in Iowa” headline which had a picture of Malcolm X. Oopsie? Or Freudian slip?

Squiggy on April 28, 2010 at 1:44 PM

Can’t wait for the Poll where they just come out and say “Our poll was taken amongst our left leaning news staff, as well as staff from the DNC, say Democrats rule, Republicans Drool.100% of those poll also say this poll is completely unbiased”"

Razgriez on April 28, 2010 at 2:53 PM

I heard Bill Bennet talking about this earlier today and he was talking about the good news the Democrats got in the poll and as soon as I heard Washington Post poll, I just knew the numbers would be screwy. I don’t believe Obama has an approval rating of 54% and I don’t believe the public trusts Democrats more than Republicans when it comes to the economy. I just do not believe that.

Terrye on April 28, 2010 at 3:29 PM

I like it. Give the Democrats these polls and hope they do very little internal polling. That way the landslide will be all the more effective going into 2012! You can’t spin the FINAL result.

Sultry Beauty on April 28, 2010 at 5:29 PM

From the picture, I’d say that brave President Skippy thinks he’s riding on the biggest, baddest roller coaster ever… but it’s only in his noggin.

ya2daup on April 28, 2010 at 5:43 PM

The Ministry of Truth is at it again, I see.

Those numbers were never there. Those numbers were always there.

We live in some truly scary times, my friends.

HAnthonyWayne on April 28, 2010 at 7:05 PM

Anyone notice Reid Wilson’s contest winnner, “Richard Skinner”?
Someone is getting a laugh at Wilson’s expense, and the simpleton has no idea.

brono921 on April 28, 2010 at 7:44 PM