Q-poll shows Obama sliding again

posted at 5:50 pm on April 21, 2010 by Ed Morrissey

Quinnipiac reports this as Barack Obama’s bounce disappearing, but it was really more of a blip than a bounce — not even outside of the margin of error.  Obama slid back to a 44/46 job approval/disapproval rating in the Q-poll, slipping from the post-ObamaCare high of … 45/46.  The President may want to consider one other fact when selecting a replacement for retiring Supreme Court Justice John Paul Stevens, too:

President Barack Obama’s job approval, which bounced slightly to a 45 – 46 percent split March 25 in the wake of his health care victory, has flattened out at 44 – 46 percent, his lowest approval rating since his inauguration, according to a Quinnipiac University national poll released today.

A total of 53 percent of American voters are “very confident” or “somewhat confident” President Obama will make the right decision in nominating a U.S. Supreme Court justice, while 46 percent are “not too confident” or “not confident at all,” the independent Quinnipiac (KWIN- uh-pe-ack) University survey finds. …

American voters approve 49 – 21 percent of the job John Roberts is doing as Chief Justice of the Supreme Court and approve 52 – 32 percent of Obama’s nomination of Justice Sonia Sotomayor to the Court.

Why does Sotomayor score higher? Thus far, she’s been a non-factor on the court, which means no controversy, either. As Chief Justice, Roberts can’t fade into the background and gets more blame (and credit) for the direction of the Supreme Court. Even with that, Roberts still gets better ratings than Obama.

A majority of registered voters may trust Obama to pick the next Supreme Court justice, but this result seems a little surprising:

Voters trust the President rather than Senate Republicans 46 – 43 percent to make the right choice for the Supreme Court, but say 48 – 41 percent that Senators who do not agree with the nominee on key issues should filibuster the choice.

That first number works out to a virtual tie, which is also surprising, since the Senate doesn’t get to pick nominees to the bench.  Republicans complained that Democrats had attempted to arrogate that power during the Bush administration by filibustering several nominees in an unprecedented show of obstructionism.  They may have succeeded too well in making their case in that period.  The judicial-nomination filibuster has now gone mainstream, and Democrats can thank themselves for that evolution in Constitutional theory.

On the issues, Obama is still mainly underwater:

  • Opposition to ObamaCare remains in double digits, 39/53
  • Health care in general: 40/55
  • Economy: 40/55
  • Job creation: 38/56
  • Budget deficit: 34/59

The numbers on the economy have been relatively stable for months now.  Obama did get a “bump” on health care just after the passage of ObamaCare, improving from 36/58 five weeks before its passage to 44/50 on March 25th.  He’s lost nine points in the gap since then, which tends to indicate that voters aren’t impressed with what Pelosi promised they’d discover after its passage.


Related Posts:

Breaking on Hot Air

Blowback

Note from Hot Air management: This section is for comments from Hot Air's community of registered readers. Please don't assume that Hot Air management agrees with or otherwise endorses any particular comment just because we let it stand. A reminder: Anyone who fails to comply with our terms of use may lose their posting privilege.

Trackbacks/Pings

Trackback URL

Comments

Who’s got the over/under date on when he breaks Bush’s lowest poll showing? I say April 15 of next year.

abobo on April 21, 2010 at 5:51 PM

53% are confident he will make the right choice in his nominee to SCOTUS? They think Sotomayor has done a better job then Roberts? Who are they polling the DNC?

sandee on April 21, 2010 at 5:53 PM

Yeah, that’s because John Roberts earned a law degree.

tetriskid on April 21, 2010 at 5:53 PM

Yeah, that’s because John Roberts earned a law degree.

tetriskid on April 21, 2010 at 5:53 PM

ZING!

portlandon on April 21, 2010 at 5:55 PM

OT: Apperently, Arizona is full of Birthers

Not that there is anything wrong with forcing a candidate to be verified… after all, congress did it to Mavericky McCain.

Wolftech on April 21, 2010 at 5:56 PM

The judicial-nomination filibuster has now gone mainstream, and Democrats can thank themselves for that evolution in Constitutional theory.

Perhaps, but it won’t stay mainstream – do we really think the Republicans have the stones to actually *do* that?

Midas on April 21, 2010 at 5:58 PM

Who’s got the over/under date on when he breaks Bush’s lowest poll showing? I say April 15 of next year.
abobo on April 21, 2010 at 5:51 PM

Hate to say it, but he’ll never go below GW’s worst rating. There are too many people dependent on Gov’t now.

Patrick S on April 21, 2010 at 5:58 PM

Who’s got the over/under date on when he breaks Bush’s lowest poll showing? I say April 15 of next year.

abobo on April 21, 2010 at 5:51 PM

I will take the under on that. January 15th next year. :)

Dire Straits on April 21, 2010 at 5:59 PM

I was watching the various Election Night Obama celebrations on YouTube recently.
They do not seem so annoying anymore. He He!

RobCon on April 21, 2010 at 5:59 PM

Hate to say it, but he’ll never go below GW’s worst rating. There are too many people dependent on Gov’t now.

Patrick S on April 21, 2010 at 5:58 PM

God I hope you are wrong. I refuse to believe that half the country wants to be dependent on the Gubmint.

Dire Straits on April 21, 2010 at 6:01 PM

Mrach 25th

Ed, you might wanna fix this. I know you did a me.

upinak on April 21, 2010 at 6:02 PM


I was watching the various Election Night Obama celebrations on YouTube recently.
They do not seem so annoying anymore. He He!

RobCon on April 21, 2010 at 5:59 PM

Why?

Stephanie on April 21, 2010 at 6:03 PM

•Opposition to ObamaCare remains in double digits, 39/53
•Health care in general: 40/55
•Economy: 40/55
•Job creation: 38/56
•Budget deficit: 34/59

What will kill them in Nov. All were sacrificed for O-’care’.

Schadenfreude on April 21, 2010 at 6:05 PM

So, when does the word unpopular start showing up in every story about Obama?

Ed, you might wanna fix this. I know you did a me.

upinak on April 21, 2010 at 6:02 PM

That is sort of cute.

Terrye on April 21, 2010 at 6:05 PM

Who’s got the over/under date on when he breaks Bush’s lowest poll showing? I say April 15 of next year.

abobo on April 21, 2010 at 5:51 PM

I will take the under on that. January 15th next year. :)

Dire Straits on April 21, 2010 at 5:59 PM

I will go with Nov. election…. Due to the Acrons working their little hearts to death.

upinak on April 21, 2010 at 6:06 PM

And now, a word from the Vice President of the United States.

amerpundit on April 21, 2010 at 6:06 PM

Hate to say it, but he’ll never go below GW’s worst rating. There are too many people dependent on Gov’t now.

Patrick S on April 21, 2010 at 5:58 PM

I don’t know about that, Obama is almost there right now. At this point in his presidency, Bush was really very popular. It took years for his numbers to get where Obama’s are right now. Reagan could come back from these kind of numbers, but I am not sure Obama can.

Terrye on April 21, 2010 at 6:07 PM

Due to the Acrons working their little hearts to death.

upinak on April 21, 2010 at 6:06 PM

You did a you :)

Schadenfreude on April 21, 2010 at 6:09 PM

amerpundit on April 21, 2010 at 6:06 PM

That’s just creepy, and right before dinner. ugh!

milwife88 on April 21, 2010 at 6:09 PM

You did a you :)

Schadenfreude on April 21, 2010 at 6:09 PM

Dyslexics of the world UNTIE!

upinak on April 21, 2010 at 6:10 PM

Hate to say it, but he’ll never go below GW’s worst rating. There are too many people dependent on Gov’t now.

Patrick S on April 21, 2010 at 5:58 PM
I don’t know about that, Obama is almost there right now. At this point in his presidency, Bush was really very popular. It took years for his numbers to get where Obama’s are right now. Reagan could come back from these kind of numbers, but I am not sure Obama can.

Terrye on April 21, 2010 at 6:07 PM

–Looks like Clinton was getting the same numbers a year or so into his first term:

http://www.gallup.com/poll/116584/presidential-approval-ratings-bill-clinton.aspx

Jimbo3 on April 21, 2010 at 6:12 PM

I don’t know about that, Obama is almost there right now….
Terrye on April 21, 2010 at 6:07 PM

I thought GW got down to the low 30′s at his nadir. I can’t see Barry getting there without some sort of major scandal or some avoidable catastrophic event occurring.

Patrick S on April 21, 2010 at 6:12 PM

You know, if you have to describe how your poll’s name is pronounced every time, maybe it’s a dumb name to begin with. They should just stop the pronounciation key already.

-Aslan’s Girl

Aslans Girl on April 21, 2010 at 6:13 PM

Yes he can go lower in the polls.. Lastest example is from Hot Air Headlines section: Obama: I didn’t know anything about the Goldman suit, I swear! He!! I nearly fell out of my chair laughing at this fool.

Dire Straits on April 21, 2010 at 6:13 PM

Jimbo3 on April 21, 2010 at 6:12 PM

Clinton recovered and pushed forward but only after Republicans took control of Congress and he tacked moderate/right.

Obama is not quite Clinton. Clinton abandoned unpopular health care reform. Obama pushed Democrats into political suicide.

amerpundit on April 21, 2010 at 6:14 PM

Who’s got the over/under date on when he breaks Bush’s lowest poll showing? I say April 15 of next year.

Obama’s ratings will never fall as low as Bush’s, because Obama will never lose the support of liberals, whereas Bush lost support from conservatives over spending, immigration, etc. Also, Obama will always have the cushion of 90% support from blacks.

Jon0815 on April 21, 2010 at 6:15 PM

Dropping a dead cat from 3′ can get you a bounce… from a 10th story window onto concrete, you get a different effect.

Obama is doing his mightiest to unite the country.

Against him.

Doing a great job of that, too!

ajacksonian on April 21, 2010 at 6:15 PM

upinak, just for you

Schadenfreude on April 21, 2010 at 6:16 PM

Schadenfreude on April 21, 2010 at 6:16 PM

LOL yep.. I like it. Completely me.

upinak on April 21, 2010 at 6:19 PM

Perhaps, but it won’t stay mainstream – do we really think the Republicans have the stones to actually *do* that?

Midas on April 21, 2010 at 5:58 PM

I think maybe they do. They have done a better job of saying no thus far than I thought they would. But my guess is, it depends on the nominee.

Terrye on April 21, 2010 at 6:19 PM

Obama’s ratings will never fall as low as Bush’s, because Obama will never lose the support of liberals, whereas Bush lost support from conservatives over spending, immigration, etc. Also, Obama will always have the cushion of 90% support from blacks.

Jon0815 on April 21, 2010 at 6:15 PM

That’s probably true, but he can drop to the high-30′s and remain there for the rest of his term. And he ain’t getting reelected with those kinds of numbers.

Doughboy on April 21, 2010 at 6:20 PM

Bush lost support from conservatives over spending, immigration, etc. Also, Obama will always have the cushion of 90% support from blacks.

Jon0815 on April 21, 2010 at 6:15 PM

I think immigration did cause Bush problems, but spending was not a huge issue until Obama came along and tripled the national debt. I don’t remember people worrying about it. I think the war hurt Bush more than anything however, and yet he hung in there.

In truth, Bush looks pretty good compared to what is in there now.

Terrye on April 21, 2010 at 6:22 PM

That’s probably true, but he can drop to the high-30’s and remain there for the rest of his term. And he ain’t getting reelected with those kinds of numbers.

Doughboy on April 21, 2010 at 6:20 PM

And Bush stayed higher longer than Obama did. A lot higher an lot longer.

It is hard to tell where Obama will end up. I think a lot of it depends on the economy, possible terror attacks, natural disasters..etc, it is impossible to know what will happen for sure.

Terrye on April 21, 2010 at 6:24 PM

I thought GW got down to the low 30’s at his nadir. I can’t see Barry getting there without some sort of major scandal or some avoidable catastrophic event occurring.

Patrick S on April 21, 2010 at 6:12 PM

Oh yes he did. But at this point in his presidency he was averaging twice that high. I saw a post over at powerline a couple of days ago that stated Obama has the third worst numbers of any modern day president at this time in his term.

Terrye on April 21, 2010 at 6:27 PM

As always, over sampling of donks.

That. Is. All.

jukin on April 21, 2010 at 6:29 PM

Hate to say it, but he’ll never go below GW’s worst rating. There are too many people dependent on Gov’t now.

Patrick S on April 21, 2010 at 5:58 PM

Bush’s “worst” as I recall was 22% but the polls that had him at that level used dishonest sampling. The majority of the “worst” Bush numbers were in the 30s.

I doubt O’bama will ever equal Bush’s highest job approval number. Unless another 9/11 happens on his watch.

Del Dolemonte on April 21, 2010 at 6:31 PM

We’re not facing historic numbers of unemployed because we suddenly have historic numbers of lazy Americans. The jobs simply are not there. And Obama his band of idiots are doing everything they can with their effed up policies to make things even worse. We haven’t hit bottom yet.

As unemployed people continue to drop off the benefit rolls on into the fall, Obama’s numbers are going to get much worse and the Dems are going to experience an unprecedented, historical blowout at the polls. The solid waste is going to hit the room ventilation system in a big way.

Django on April 21, 2010 at 6:31 PM

I thought GW got down to the low 30’s at his nadir. I can’t see Barry getting there without some sort of major scandal or some avoidable catastrophic event occurring.

Patrick S on April 21, 2010 at 6:12 PM

Bush’s low numbers were helped along by the corrupt national media, who turned against him with a vengeance after he duped them into reporting Bill Clinton’s Iraq intelligence as true.

On the other hand, they’ve been O’bama’s kneepads since Day 1. Which makes his fall in the polls so Unprecedented!

Del Dolemonte on April 21, 2010 at 6:35 PM

Oh yes he did. But at this point in his presidency he was averaging twice that high. I saw a post over at powerline a couple of days ago that stated Obama has the third worst numbers of any modern day president at this time in his term.

Terrye on April 21, 2010 at 6:27 PM

It took over 4 years for Bush’s job approval numbers to stay in the mid 40s. O’bama did it in 14 months.

Del Dolemonte on April 21, 2010 at 6:37 PM

Oh yes he did. But at this point in his presidency he was averaging twice that high. I saw a post over at powerline a couple of days ago that stated Obama has the third worst numbers of any modern day president at this time in his term.

Terrye on April 21, 2010 at 6:27 PM

Give him a bit more time, he is going for first place in that category in a hurry.

bluemarlin on April 21, 2010 at 6:48 PM

A further breakdown of the Quinnpiac poll:

1)The result with Independent voters (38/50)was 40/44 in March which shows a gradual slide among indies by Obama.

2)Here again we find a poll of FEMALE voters where Obams is under 50% in job approval (47/43). This has to be a major concern to Team Obama as the Messiah’s dominance in the FEMALE vote against all the potential GOP contenders, especially Sarah Palin, in 2012, was substantial and one of the key reasons for that was he was consistently in the 55% range in FAVORABLES among FEMALE voters. At 47 now, I believe he has lost a lot of WHITE suburban FEMALE voters (voted for Obama out of white guilt) or doyennes (46+), and that loss of support has gone over all the GOP candidates, even Sarah Palin, to the point where PPP polling showed a few days ago in a head to head matchup with Obama among all FEMALE voters that Palin would only be down by 1 point to the Messiah (46 to 45)whereas she was behind 18 points in March 2010 (53-35).

3)Last month the Q poll showed among all WHITE voters Obama was at 36/55 and all BLACK voters 87/5. In April it is now 35/55 for WHITES and 92/6 for BLACKS. We clearly have before us the same chasm between WHITE folks and BLACK folks that separated them vs. the OJ Simpson verdict where the vast majority of WHITES thought OJ was guilty and the vast majority of BLACKS thought he was innocent.

And in the same PPP poll in a head to head matchup of all WHITE voters Palin prevails over Obama 55%-38%. And Jay Cost in a recent post at Real Clear Politics projected that if Palin (or any other GOP nominee) could get to 60% of the WHITE vote in 2012 (in 2008 it was Obama 43% and McCain 55%) that Palin or the GOP nominee would defeat Obama. And the last time I checked 55 is only 5 points removed from 60. And that’s regardless if Obama got 97% of the BLACK vote and 2/3 of the Hispanic vote, Palin would win.

4)Although the “religious” FAVORABLE vote has not dropped appreciably for Obama since February it has dropped by a few percentage points in each category in April:

EVANGELCIAL: 22% TO 20%
PROTESTANTS: 31% TO 27%
ROMAN CATH: 41% TO 35%

5) In terms of the economy Obama’s F/UF are 40/55 but only 35/60 with Independent voters. Clearly it is the state of the economy that has sunk Obama’s indie numbers in the last few months.

6) In terms of repealing Obamacare only 9% of Republicans favor it and 86% of them reject it and of indie voters 36% give it a thumbs up but 56% of independent voters threw cold water on it. And of WHITES it’s 31/61 and BLACKS 82/13. Another OJ Simpson divide.

7) In conclusion it is the WHITE voters imho that will determine the 2012 election. Can Obama get into low 40′s with WHITE voters again or is he destined to remain mired in the 35%-38% range for the next 30 months allowing the GOP nominee to get above 60% of the WHITE vote? Time will tell.

technopeasant on April 21, 2010 at 6:49 PM

Polls keep a fallin’ on my head
And just like the guy whose wife’s butt is to too big for his bed
Nothin’ seems to fit
Those polls are a fallin’ on my head, they keep fallin’

So I just did me some talkin’ to Emanuel
And he said we’d just get Allahpundit to get Hotair’s believers and atheists to fight again among each other like Hell
Get others to do our diversion job
Those polls are fallin’ on my head, they keep fallin’

But there’s one thing I know
The blues polls send to meet me won’t defeat me
It won’t be long till Marxist happiness steps up to greet me

Polls keep a fallin’ on my head
But that doesn’t mean the country will soon be turnin’ red
Losin’s not for me
‘Cause I’m never gonna stop the polls by complainin’
Because I’m conscience free
Like the Constitution, they’ll just get the deep six from me

- The Child Emperor

MB4 on April 21, 2010 at 6:55 PM

American voters approve 49 – 21 percent of the job John Roberts is doing as Chief Justice of the Supreme Court and approve 52 – 32 percent of Obama’s nomination of Justice Sonia Sotomayor to the Court.

Why does Sotomayor score higher?

She doesn’t. Roberts is at + 28, Soto is at +20.

MB4 on April 21, 2010 at 6:59 PM

wait, what propaganda machine does CJ Roberts have at his disposal? Does Chris Matthews proclaim his judicial demeanor? Does Maddow talk about how mean all those old appellants are? and those liberal justices? who is demonizing them?

1st of all, the avg person has no clue who CJ Roberts is. so for him to poll better than President Wee Wee, who is the gifter of unicorns, is pretty damn amazing.

kelley in virginia on April 21, 2010 at 7:12 PM

You did a you :)

Schadenfreude on April 21, 2010 at 6:09 PM
Dyslexics of the world UNTIE!

upinak on April 21, 2010 at 6:10 PM

I couldn’t spell cat if you spotted me the C and the A.

Colorado Anne on April 21, 2010 at 7:17 PM

What is with Rasmussen? They keep showing Obama going up.

mobydutch on April 21, 2010 at 7:26 PM

What is with Rasmussen? They keep showing Obama going up.

mobydutch on April 21, 2010 at 7:26 PM

The Rasmussen poll that interests me the most is the generic congressional ballot. Last I saw the R’s were ahead by 10 points.

farright on April 21, 2010 at 7:34 PM

It’s late April and unemployment is still, incredibly, ticking higher. Re November, that means we’re at a point of no return. It is exceedingly unlikely that things will turn around significantly before November.

People who are discontented now are going to be frantic by the fall. Lord Unicorn and his band of clueless idiots are about to go swirling down the toilet both in the polls and in the election.

It’s the economy, stupid.

Django on April 21, 2010 at 7:35 PM

upinak, I don’t have the heart to tell Ed that there’s no such word as “arrogate.” (I think he meant abrogate.)

pookysgirl on April 21, 2010 at 8:05 PM

Arrogate means to claim without justification or to make undue claims.

technopeasant on April 21, 2010 at 8:16 PM

Zero can’t pitch but he sure can slide.

Kissmygrits on April 22, 2010 at 9:23 AM