Reid trails Republican by ten points in full-election poll

posted at 10:55 am on April 16, 2010 by Ed Morrissey

Harry Reid had hoped that the “Tea Party” candidate Scott Ashjian would draw enough Republican votes away from the GOP nominee to give him a win in a three-way election.  Mason-Dixon’s latest poll included not just Ashjian but also the “none of the above” category offered Nevada voters and the other candidates expected to make the general election ballot.  Unfortunately for Reid, none of that helps to keep him from reaping the results of the radical agenda he has pursued for the last four years (via JWF):

U.S. Sen. Harry Reid must pick up far more support from crossover Republicans and independents to win re-election, according to a new poll that shows him losing to the GOP front-runner in a full-ballot election with eight contenders and a “none of these candidates” option.

The survey of Nevada voters commissioned by the Review-Journal shows Reid getting 37 percent of the vote compared with 47 percent for Republican Sue Lowden, who would win if the election were today, while the slate of third-party and nonpartisan candidates would get slim to no backing.

The latest Mason-Dixon poll for the first time measured Reid’s and Lowden’s support in a full general election test instead of in a head-to-head or three-way matchup to see how much of the vote the record number of Senate candidates on the Nov. 2 ballot would siphon off from the Democratic incumbent and the top GOP challenger, pollster Brad Coker said.

Mason-Dixon finds no particular direction in the “siphoned” votes. Roughly the same number of normally Democratic voters wind up voting for fringe candidates as do normally Republican voters. As for Ashjian, he draws less than “none of the above” and is barely noticeable at 2%.

More problematic for Reid, only eight percent of the respondents are undecided at this point. That puts his cap at 45%, although Reid hasn’t polled that high in over a year. He has a ton of money left in the bank, around $25 million, and people expect a scorched-earth campaign that will attempt to pull Lowden or Tarkanian down to his polling levels. At this point, though, it seems pretty unrealistic to expect to pull a Republican challenger down to under 37%. Reid’s problem isn’t that the Republicans are popular, but that he’s so horribly unpopular.

Normally when an incumbent reaches this level, he has the good sense to retire with what little grace remains to him. Before the passage of ObamaCare, the White House couldn’t afford to let him do that. Now with both cap-and-trade and immigration reform unlikely to proceed, there doesn’t seem to be any reason to keep Reid in this race, other than sheer bloody-mindedness.

Update: Actually, Lowden beats Reid, but Tarkanian is tied with him, 39%-39%, according to the LVRJ. The above made it sound a bit like both Republicans were ahead, so I wanted to clarify that.

Blowback

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Spend it Harry, spend every last penny and reap defeat and poverty for what you have sown. I look forward to Jan /Feb 2011 when you are wandering the Nevada desert wearing a bathrobe, slippers and muttering unintelligibly to yourself–kinda like your days in the Senate.

Consequences

ted c on April 16, 2010 at 10:58 AM

Will he try running as an independent?

Mr. Joe on April 16, 2010 at 10:58 AM

It will be funny to watch his son beg him to retire in order to preserve his campaign for Governor.

teke184 on April 16, 2010 at 11:00 AM

We’ll probably get a memo soon about Harry wanting to ‘retire’ and ‘spend more time with his family’.

GarandFan on April 16, 2010 at 11:01 AM

The mortician is going down! I hope you know what I mean by that……

Pelosi delende est on April 16, 2010 at 11:01 AM

I sent Sue Lowden some dilly dollars a while back. I am waiting for the primary to send her some more :0)

ginaswo on April 16, 2010 at 11:02 AM

I suspect this is the highest poll he’s going to see.

Another Crist story unfolding here.

AnninCA on April 16, 2010 at 11:06 AM

Morticians hardest hit.

Bishop on April 16, 2010 at 11:07 AM

Awwwwwwwww, that’s too bad.

As a Mormon, he is an embarrassment to my faith. Joseph Smith, founder of the Mormon church, predicted that one day the constitution would hang by a thread.

I had no idea that one of my own faith would work so hard to destroy that thread.

The Rock on April 16, 2010 at 11:08 AM

Reid should be trailing “dog crap on the bottom of your shoe” by 10 points, at least.

Hey Reid, “This War is Lost”.

Grab your shinebox, Harry.

NoDonkey on April 16, 2010 at 11:10 AM

Cool. My weekend starts with high note.

jake-the-goose on April 16, 2010 at 11:10 AM

nanananah…nanananah….hey,hey, good-bye…nanananah….

jbh45 on April 16, 2010 at 11:11 AM

As a Mormon, he is an embarrassment to my faith

At least you don’t have to try and explain Ted Kennedy, Nancy Pelosi, John Kerry and Joe Biden.

NoDonkey on April 16, 2010 at 11:11 AM

Maybe Reid and the Dems have some dirt on the prospective opponents, and will use it to destroy them during the race.

Worked for Obama’s various political races in Chicago.

Midas on April 16, 2010 at 11:12 AM

There is no way Reid can run as an independent. He is the friggin Senate majority leader, remember. If they even thought of replacing him the whole party would come crumbling down.

Johnnyreb on April 16, 2010 at 11:12 AM

Sweet, sweet poetic justice!!!!!!!! If no other seat is picked up in the Senate by Republicans except for this one, I will be very satisfied. He’s gotta be the biggest a-hole in the Senate. Barbara Boxer gets biggest b*tch!

NathanG on April 16, 2010 at 11:13 AM

Obama going after Goldman Sachs now, election yr in full swing

jp on April 16, 2010 at 11:13 AM

Yay!

bestwins on April 16, 2010 at 11:15 AM

heh

cmsinaz on April 16, 2010 at 11:16 AM

There is no way Reid can run as an independent. He is the friggin Senate majority leader, remember. If they even thought of replacing him the whole party would come crumbling down.

Johnnyreb on April 16, 2010 at 11:12 AM

I agree with your point. BUT we are dealing with “Chicago Machine” and these thugs will do anything to hang on to their power.

Dire Straits on April 16, 2010 at 11:17 AM

Nah nah nah nah…hey, hey, goodbye!

ladyingray on April 16, 2010 at 11:17 AM

Sadly enough, the “spend more time with the family” excuse was tailor-made for Reid after accident involving his wife and daughter. Yet he decided to march onward and seek reelection. He’s every bit as dingy as we thought.

Doughboy on April 16, 2010 at 11:18 AM

Maybe that suicide bomb will claim one of its creators.

lorien1973 on April 16, 2010 at 11:19 AM

Couldn’t happen to a nicer guy…
His (or any ones) faith has nothing to do with common sense, integrity, or credibility.

Reid’s 2008 description of then-candidate Barack Obama as a “light-skinned” African-American “with no Negro dialect, unless he wanted to have one.”

right2bright on April 16, 2010 at 11:20 AM

Pelosi delende est on April 16, 2010 at 11:01 AM

Reid isn’t the mortician. He’s what the mortician is in business for.

Kafir on April 16, 2010 at 11:20 AM

We’ll probably get a memo soon about Harry wanting to ‘retire’ and ’spend more time with his family’.

GarandFan on April 16, 2010 at 11:01 AM

Dennis Moore in KS used that line for why he was retiring this year. Now his wife is running for his old seat. Makes you wonder what family he meant?

mwdiver on April 16, 2010 at 11:20 AM

At least you don’t have to try and explain Ted Kennedy, Nancy Pelosi, John Kerry and Joe Biden.

NoDonkey on April 16, 2010

It appears, sadly, that Catholic church leaders tolerate those vile pieces of excrement because they want to be able to say they have Catholics in high places or because they actually agree with their redistributionist and anti-life policies. Lucky for me, I’m a Catholic because of Christ, not the fools who purport to speak for Him.

Extrafishy on April 16, 2010 at 11:21 AM

Reid maybe thought he had to join the Mormon Church in order to read the Book of Mormon. That’s how it works at his day job.

RBMN on April 16, 2010 at 11:21 AM

He looks about as lively as an aquarium of dead sea monkeys.

kingsjester on April 16, 2010 at 11:21 AM

This is going to be better than watching Daschle get his a$$ handed to him.

farright on April 16, 2010 at 11:22 AM

Send in Barry to campaign for him, that oughtta be a winner!

obladioblada on April 16, 2010 at 11:23 AM

Maybe Reid and the Dems have some dirt on the prospective opponents, and will use it to destroy them during the race.

Worked for Obama’s various political races in Chicago.

Midas on April 16, 2010 at 11:12 AM

They dont’ need to have dirt, they can just make some up.

hawksruleva on April 16, 2010 at 11:23 AM

accident involving his wife and daughter. Yet he decided to march onward and seek reelection. He’s every bit as dingy as we thought.

Doughboy on April 16, 2010 at 11:18 AM

Resigning is tricky in politics. Look at the reaction to Palin and recently to SEIU head.

I think it will become more acceptable. The truth is that many politicians outlive their passion and the whole reason people ever supported them initially.

At that point, they are without moorings. McCain strikes me as being in the same spot as Reid. Ditto for Brown in CA.

Sometimes, these warhorses need to know when it’s time to retire.

AnninCA on April 16, 2010 at 11:24 AM

It’s time to Reid him out of American politics.

Inkblots on April 16, 2010 at 11:25 AM

teke184 on April 16, 2010 at 11:00 AM

Rory Reid’s got some bad news on that score: The NV primary is June 8, and the last day to WITHDRAW candidacy was March 23!
http://nvsos.gov/Modules/ShowDocument.aspx?documentid=1526

Looks like the Reid family is going to have to take their beatings like men.

BradSchwartze on April 16, 2010 at 11:28 AM

If the White House doesn’t nudge Harry to “retire” and get behind some “new and improved” type, I figure that not only do they know he’s history, but that the Dem brand in Nevada isn’t worth crap right now either.

Patrick S on April 16, 2010 at 11:29 AM

I hope Mrs. Reid buys a helmet and body pads to help soften the blows when Harry becomes unemployed.

trs on April 16, 2010 at 11:35 AM

Reid should be trailing “dog crap on the bottom of your shoe” by 10 points, at least.

Hey Reid, “This War is Lost”.

Grab your shinebox, Harry.

NoDonkey

Yes, yes and YES!

SurferDoc on April 16, 2010 at 11:36 AM

Harry rag, harry rag
Do anything just to get a harry rag
And he curses himself for the life he’s led
And rolls himself a harry rag and puts himself to bed

Christien on April 16, 2010 at 11:39 AM

Send this POS back to his dirt lot in Searchlight!

Hummer53 on April 16, 2010 at 11:41 AM

10 points is too close, in my opinion.

I personally think this is his apex.

But that’s actually dangerous territory.

AnninCA on April 16, 2010 at 11:41 AM

Ten points is close enough for Democrat election theft.

SurferDoc on April 16, 2010 at 11:43 AM

Bye bye Harry—so sorry you’re about to get “Daschled” out of politics. And soooooo wonderful to find there really is a “war lost”—-in the five inches between your ears.

Rovin on April 16, 2010 at 11:44 AM

Think what the his numbers would be if people weren’t “so nice to him.”

Sarjex on April 16, 2010 at 11:49 AM

Only 10 points? I know there’s a lot of union people in that state, but come on! They must like being strong armed.

Kissmygrits on April 16, 2010 at 11:52 AM

Looks like the Reid family is going to have to take their beatings like men sniveling leftists.

FIFY

Aviator on April 16, 2010 at 11:55 AM

I think the real shift in thinking is coming from the notion that “I was a winner once, so that makes me invincible.”

It’s a real shift in thinking not only in politics, but in business and in the Church.

No, you really are what your current decisions reflect.

And, maybe, you peaked years ago.

AnninCA on April 16, 2010 at 11:59 AM

37% solution.

Thanks Ed…

:O)

Seven Percent Solution on April 16, 2010 at 12:03 PM

Send in Barry to campaign for him, that oughtta be a winner!

obladioblada on April 16, 2010 at 11:23 AM

I believe he has already done that. I could be mistaken.

mwdiver on April 16, 2010 at 12:05 PM

The only thing I will enjoy more is watching Barry get his ass drummed out of office in 2012. Of course, watching the same thing happen to Bela Pelosi would be a very, very, very close second (a tie, actually.)

Dopenstrange on April 16, 2010 at 12:07 PM

Couldn’t happen to a nicer stiff.

Lily on April 16, 2010 at 12:09 PM

Dopenstrange on April 16, 2010 at 12:07 PM

Dopenstrange on April 16, 2010 at 12:07 PM

Nah, without Democrat president and Democrat congress, Peloser is no threat.

mwdiver on April 16, 2010 at 12:09 PM

Resigning is tricky in politics. Look at the reaction to Palin and recently to SEIU head. * * *

AnninCA on April 16, 2010 at 11:24 AM

It’s so tricky that some choose not to run for re-election.

Barnestormer on April 16, 2010 at 12:15 PM

Harry Reid had hoped that the “Tea Party” candidate Scott Ashjian would draw enough Republican votes away from the GOP nominee to give him a win in a three-way election.

That lame-ass fraud blew up in Reid’s face.

Say whatever you want about liberals. Yes, they are dangerous; and sociopathically, even suicidally, destructive.

Fortunately, though, liberals do have one saving grace: They are all inveterate morons.

logis on April 16, 2010 at 12:32 PM

Get ready Mrs Reid, your husband will be unemployed soon

macncheez on April 16, 2010 at 12:45 PM

You won’t have to smell those capital tourists anymore, will ya Harry?.

justltl on April 16, 2010 at 12:46 PM

Nevadan approaches retired Harry in restaurant, wrinkles nose, sniffs, wrinkles nose, and walks away.

justltl on April 16, 2010 at 12:47 PM

There is no way Reid can run as an independent. He is the friggin Senate majority leader, remember. If they even thought of replacing him the whole party would come crumbling down.

Johnnyreb on April 16, 2010 at 11:12 AM

I agree with your point. BUT we are dealing with “Chicago Machine” and these thugs will do anything to hang on to their power.

Dire Straits on April 16, 2010 at 11:17 AM

Okay so here’s his plan… name change and plastic surgery. Then personality change and party change.

Nope, still no chance.

petunia on April 16, 2010 at 12:56 PM

Get ready Mrs Reid, your husband will be unemployed soon

macncheez on April 16, 2010 at 12:45 PM

He already voted them out of health insurance. While she was in the hospital.

If they weren’t so wealthy… wealth made because of his “public service”… it might actually be a problem.

petunia on April 16, 2010 at 12:58 PM

His adies have done the math but Reid is a former boxer.

Moreover, his withdrawl would scare contributors and the base’s faithful supporters and elected sheepie all over the country.

Fired up Latinos, a little election fraud, spend tons of money and we have him within four.

And we still have the possibility of an economic miracle!

IlikedAUH2O on April 16, 2010 at 12:59 PM

Mason Dixon is polling wrong folks – just “likely voters” in Las Vegas.

Rasmussen of April 5:

Sharron Angle has passed Danny Tarkanian to pull within 3% of Sue Lowden.

GOP primary voters are mostly active Republicans:

NV GOP county straw polls:

Lowden – ZERO wins – not a single one!

Tarkanian – ZERO wins – not a single one!!

Angle – has won every county, including Clark county (Las Vegas) except 2!!

Yesterday’s endorsement by TEA Party Express generated 135 news stories.

Read about how she took all 3 branches of the NV state government to the SCOTUS over the constitution in “Angle v. Guinn”.

fred5678 on April 16, 2010 at 1:14 PM

Reid/Crist 2012…

JohnBG on April 16, 2010 at 1:15 PM

Wouldn’t it be fun to see a “Tea Party” endorsed candidate knock out Poor Harry in a primary? But it’ll never happen.

desertdweller on April 16, 2010 at 1:18 PM

At least you don’t have to try and explain Ted Kennedy, Nancy Pelosi, John Kerry and Joe Biden.

NoDonkey on April 16, 2010

It appears, sadly, that Catholic church leaders tolerate those vile pieces of excrement because they want to be able to say they have Catholics in high places or because they actually agree with their redistributionist and anti-life policies. Lucky for me, I’m a Catholic because of Christ, not the fools who purport to speak for Him.

Extrafishy on April 16, 2010 at 11:21 AM

Historically, the Catholic Church has always been more sensitive to the idea of “helping the poor” than Protestant churches, not only in America but in Europe. Catholic immigrants to America (especially Irish, Italian, and Polish) were at one time generally poorer than Protestants, and many of them turned to Democrats to use government “charity” to rectify a perceived injustice against them.

Times have changed, and nobody can honestly believe that Ted Kennedy, Nancy Pelosi, or John Kerry are/were “poor”, but after being told for many generations that “Democrats helped the poor” and “Democrats helped my poor ancestors during the Depression”, many Catholics have trouble waking up to the fact that Democrats have defended the killing of over 40 million unborn people since 1973, whose voices have never been heard.

I still hear priests talking about government “charity” toward the poor, favoring Democrats over Republicans who want to protect unborn life, but whom some priests blast as “warmongers” or “killers” because they support capital punishment.

During the 1980′s, “liberation theology” swept through mostly-Catholic South America, where the Catholic doctrine of charity toward the poor was used to justify political Marxism, despite the strong protests against “liberation theology” by Pope John Paul II.

Many studies have shown that political conservatives are more generous to charity than liberals, but conservatives need seize the “charity” issue to win the Catholic vote, which is about evenly split between “charity” Catholics who vote Democrat, and “pro-life” Catholics who vote Republican.

For decades, our current tax code has allowed gifts to charity to be deducted from taxable income for those who itemize deductions, which is an indirect way for the Government to financially encourage VOLUNTARY gifts to private, non-government charitable organizations. Most reputable charities use less than 10% of their resources for advertising and fund-raising, meaning that 90%+ of the money received goes to the poor. If a person in a 25% tax bracket donates $100 to a private charity, the tax deduction reduces his actual cost to $75, while the poor get $90 worth of benefit, meaning that the person’s gift was INCREASED by 20% due to the tax deduction.

Direct Government “charity”, coercing people to spend tax money to give to others, is notoriously inefficient, due to thousands of salaried bureaucrats trying to figure out who should get what, and prevent people from feigning poverty to get “free” money, so that of $100 worth of tax money going to “welfare” programs, the poor are lucky to get $70–a 30% LOSS to the giver!

Conservatives need to make the argument that tax deductions for VOLUNTARY gifts to PRIVATE charity are MORE HELPFUL TO THE POOR than coerced “charity” from redistribution of taxes, and if people are taxed less, they have more money to give! One proposal that could help with this effort would be to allow tax deductions for charitable gifts WITHOUT itemizing deductions. Since lower-income taxpayers usually take the standard deduction and don’t itemize, this would encourage generosity toward those poorer than themselves.

Making this argument could go a long way in winning a larger share of the Catholic vote, which is about 30% of the population, and includes lots of Hispanics who traditionally vote for Democrats.

Steve Z on April 16, 2010 at 1:28 PM

Wouldn’t it be fun to see a “Tea Party” endorsed candidate knock out Poor Harry in a primary? But it’ll never happen.

desertdweller on April 16, 2010 at 1:18 PM

How about a candidate who is also wholeheartedly endorsed by Mark Levin???

Watch Sharron Angle on Fox News Sunday with Chris Wallace and see how it will happen.

fred5678 on April 16, 2010 at 8:56 PM

Nah, without Democrat president and Democrat congress, Peloser is no threat.

mwdiver on April 16, 2010 at 12:09 PM

You’re probably right; I just detest the itch-bay.

Dopenstrange on April 16, 2010 at 10:21 PM