CNN: Huckabee 24, Romney 20, Palin 15
posted at 6:59 pm on April 13, 2010 by Allahpundit
Here’s a morale booster on a day when Huck’s in the news for tossing a culture-war firecracker, eh? How does a long hot summer filled with bickering over gay marriage sound for 2012? Mmmm mmmm good.
“Huckabee does best among women, regular church-goers, and Republicans who never attended college,” says CNN Polling Director Keating Holland. “Romney gets better numbers among white collar Republicans and GOPers who attend church once a month or less. Palin does not win among any of those groups, despite the fact that she has a higher favorable rating among Republicans than Huckabee, Romney or Gingrich.”…
“It is important to remember that at this stage of the game, candidate matchups are largely driven by name recognition, and at least a quarter of all Americans are unfamiliar with Romney, Huckabee and Gingrich. As a result, Obama has an 8- to-12-point edge over each of them in hypothetical matchups,” adds Holland. “But in a previous CNN poll, Obama managed no better than a tie against an unnamed Republican.”
But there is something more than name recognition at work in Obama’s big lead over Palin.
“Palin is almost as well known as Obama, but the general public appears to have some doubts about what they have seen of her so far,” says Holland.
In other words, Huck and Mitt could theoretically close the gap with The One as Americans get to know them. Sarahcuda? Well, they already know her — only two percent haven’t heard of her at this point — but her numbers are suddenly in decline again after rebounding last year. After she resigned last July, her favorables were at 39/48; they creeped upwards to 46/46 during her book tour and stood at 43/46 in January. Now? 39/55, which is by far the worst she’s ever done in CNN. I’m not sure why, although the media narrative about tea partiers may be hurting her: Their numbers are down too, from 33/26 in January to 38/36 now. Maybe she’s catching some negative spillover from Fox News after joining them as a contributor full-time? Or maybe the alarmism about her “reload” comment has penetrated deeper than anyone thought. Note the trends:
The fact that she’s underwater even on the “shares your values” question is striking. Is it the “reloaded” thing or am I forgetting something else that’s happened between then and now? It’s borderline amazing that her favorables among Republicans are better than Mitt’s and Huck’s and yet she’s still third in the field, although the fact that the numbers on whether she’s qualified to be president are still dismal — 30/69 this month — probably explains it.
Serious question: Is there any way she can significantly improve her public image at this point? I’m open to persuasion since I’m the guy who always says vis-a-vis Romney that a lot can happen between now and next year, but my point all along with him has been that righties may be willing to forgive RomneyCare in the long run in the name of electability. So desperate will they be by 2012 to oust The One that a credible claim of being able to beat him in the general will be a compelling message all its own. Palin has the opposite problem: The base loves her, but the more time goes by and her numbers don’t move, the more the electability argument works against her. What’s her next move?
Blowback
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AP said:
Yes, short-term, she can get another bump from her next book. Long-term, if she wins the nomination, the very process of doing so- performing above expectations against other contenders in a series of debates- will help change perceptions. Her numbers went up about 10 points after her debate with Biden.
I’m at a loss to explain why Palin’s favorables have been cratering in virtually every poll for a couple months now- I don’t see any obvious reason for it. The decline started shortly after the hand notes gaffe, but that is now far enough in the past that if that were the primary factor, she should have started to recover somewhat.
Jon0815 on April 14, 2010 at 9:02 AM
The answer to AP’s questions is obvious. A quarter of our population thinks that Sarah Palin and Tina Fey are the same person. Whenever a terrible Tina Fey movie comes out Sarah Palin’s favorables drop.
livefreerdie on April 14, 2010 at 9:11 AM
“I’m at a loss to explain why Palin’s favorables have been cratering”
Some people are put off by all the money she is making and where (I’m not)–the rest is the ongoing media narrative whcih is using polls to try to destroy her along with everything else. Too bad for them that this time they took on somebody who loves to fight–and win!
SurferDoc on April 14, 2010 at 9:27 AM
It’s sad that anyone who is “unfamiliar” with those 3 people even has voting rights.
katiejane on April 14, 2010 at 9:45 AM
Whomever the folks are who respond to these polls, I don’t care. I know who I’ll vote for if given the chance — whether or not CNN approves.
littleguy on April 14, 2010 at 9:58 AM
I have no proof of this belief, but I believe that Sarah is truly being vetted by the public. At this point, it’s easy to simply not vote for her in polls. However, she continues to set the pace for conservatives, and every word is gobbled up by the public.
That tells me that the public absolutely knows that this woman has something called, “leadership.”
I think the public is absolutely gun-shy against quick “velcro” attachments, after seeing Obama flip-flop and produce chaos. That was opposite of his image.
They are, of course, going to put the next real candidate through real paces.
Regardless of whether she wins enough real support to win the nomination, I’m confident she will run, and she will be significant.
Sarah is, regardless of PDS, a player in national politics.
AnninCA on April 14, 2010 at 9:59 AM
Seriously? I think most Americans are very commonsense voters.
AnninCA on April 14, 2010 at 10:00 AM
Could be a little bit of overexposure as well. Her numbers seemed their best when she was simply firing off missives from her FB page every few weeks or so but we weren’t really seeing her or hearing from her elsewhere. Now the media trips over themselves to carry every one of her major speeches live across the cable networks. There are threads about her here everyday. A week can’t go by with some liberal “journalist” taking a swipe at her in print somewhere. None of this is her fault of course, but it may be part of the plan to neutralize her by making people sick of her. I don’t ever tire of her, but some people might. I know this same strategy has worked wonders for ratcheting up my contempt for Obama; the guy is on TV almost every d@mn day.
Anyway, I don’t think these things are of any concern to her. As she said, “Politically, if I die, I die.” She’s going to keep soldiering on to get the right people elected. If she ends up being one of the right people at some point, she’ll go for it. If God doesn’t open that door to her, as she puts it, she won’t. I love her attitude and approach to this whole thing. Her selflessness is a wonder to behold in today’s political climate.
NoLeftTurn on April 14, 2010 at 10:03 AM
The aspect of this poll that makes me really laugh is that Romney is so definitely not the “shoo-in.”
Come on, Huckabee?
I’d say this poll spells out that the GOP primaries are very likely to be quite a regional free-for-all.
Anyone’s game is my conclusion.
AnninCA on April 14, 2010 at 10:10 AM
That hasn’t stopped since she was running. The real test was whether the stories when she is highly visible are any more damaging than when she’s not.
Obviously, they are digging through imaginary trash these days to uncover something…….anything.
It’s as absurd as when she wasn’t visible.
AnninCA on April 14, 2010 at 10:11 AM
I look at these polls by the MSM as a method of directing the and influencing the outcome, in much the same way they controlled the GOP nomination in 2008. Huckabee is the media’s pick and they will keep pumping him as long as they can. Huckabee is DOA, damaged goods, un-electable because he is a transparent liar. So, go ahead and let the media make your choice for you again and you won’t have to worry about ever going to the poll for another election, as we will be served up what the media wants, not what the want.
belad on April 14, 2010 at 10:13 AM
Yes because these polls are so scientific and accurate we MUST take them seriously. Let’s let 800 “adults” and a CNN pollster determine who our next nominee should be. If Republicans are going to allow the media to sway their opinions as to who is qualified and who isn’t, then by all means let’s nominate Huckabee and let’s lose in a landslide. Hey, who’s up for another 4 years of Obama and his Marxist policies?
Redneck Woman on April 14, 2010 at 10:29 AM
I see it that way too!
David2.0 on April 14, 2010 at 10:52 AM
Anyone see the Ras poll?
Paul 41%
Obama 42%
http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/elections2/election_2012/election_2012_barack_obama_42_ron_paul_41
LurkerDood on April 14, 2010 at 11:20 AM
It is the speeches hurting Palin. Dana Perino touched on this with Greta about 2 days ago.
Red meat speeches are okay. Nothing Palin is saying is wrong. However, the general public I believe is reacting to the lack of solutions offered in her speeches. For example, regurgitating over and over the same GOP memes about tax cuts is not the end all and be all to setting America back on track. If you compare Palin’s speeches on the economy with the clip of Paul Ryan speaking with Beck, one would see there is a big difference. In other words, we get it about the tax cuts, but most Americans are wanting MORE than the usual fare from a Republican. Unfortunately saying tax cuts does resonate with everyone the way it should, and it is has a ring of the same old same old blah, blah from a Republican. Most Independents know it is going to take more than just tax cuts to fix this debacle. We have jumped the economic shark, and tax cuts are only a small part of the solution.
She is in Obama’s OODA loop for sure, and the back and forth over the nuclear option showed the experience criticism would not necessarily fly if offered during a campaign. However, Governor Palin needs to better utilize her experiences as being governor of Alaska when discussing defense topics. She talks a lot about the oil and gas experiences of being governor, and reforming a corrupt government, but she is not verbally capitalizing on other assets she has being a former governor of a state which deals with defensive issues.
When discussing China, Russia or Israel she gives answers I could give in my sleep. There needs to be more substance, more meat on the speeches or comments. Again, what she says is not wrong, but it needs some fleshing out if these polls are going to move in the Independent voting block. Independents really worry about foreign affairs, and they know this ordeal with China, Russia and Iran is still going to be around come 2012. She does not have to come out with ideas set in stone, but her ideas need to leave people feeling confident with what she knows and would like to do if POTUS. I believe she knows more than she is telling us, and I wish she would give a serious foreign policy speech which does not involve any Obama criticisms. We did have these problems prior to the Obama Regime.
So far her appearances on Fox have been fluff and no substance and that is why I believe she has gone backwards. It is like Dana told Greta, red meat is great, but at some point and time Palin has got to shift to more serious material. Another way to compare and contrast what I am seeing is to compare a Palin speech regarding foreign issues with the interview of Lt. Col. West with Sean Hannity last night. WOW! Forget his military experience, the man said tons in a brief amount of time and with solid conviction. That sort of connection with an audience is what most voters are looking for, and want from Palin IF she chose to run for POTUS. Until she does this, the polls are going to reflect a backwards move by her.
On the up side, the one thing this poll does not reflect is her ability to raise money and draw massive crowds. You need both in order to be a political force. And she can reverse the backsliding AP, but she is quickly running out of time. The woman can do whatever she wants, but there are time limits.
freeus on April 14, 2010 at 11:33 AM
Pounds your guy into the dirt in the primaries.
james23 on April 14, 2010 at 12:13 PM
Love it to be Palin but just about time to get a little real. It probably won’t be. But pleeease someone besides Romney and Huckabzzzzzzz…Oh sorry. I nodded off…needs to appear from somewhere. Petraeus! He runs and the primary’s a walk. Then he gets about 65% of the popular vote in the general.
curved space on April 14, 2010 at 6:20 PM
Really??? If they were serious voters instead of ” ONE ISSUE” voters, we wouldn’t have the abomination in the WH now would we!
belad on April 14, 2010 at 9:04 PM
Romney revealed today that he can’t be fully trusted to fight the good fight for conservatism.
Did you hear what he said?
Praise Obama when he does the right thing, like getting the auto-makers under control?
That’s not conservatism.
Mark7788 on April 14, 2010 at 11:51 PM
Beware of hitching your horse to Romney!
How about Rubio-Palin in 2012 !!
Mark7788 on April 14, 2010 at 11:52 PM
If any one of you would look at the internal stats to this poll, it shows Sarah Palin wins “liberals” by the biggest numbers against Huckabee and Romney.
Now why do you think that is? Could it be the Democrats voted for Sarah because they know she would be the easiest Republican candidate to beat? Mike Huckabee has won every poll from the South against Sarah Palin and Romney. Huckabee even came within 4 points to Romney in Pennsylvania.
So now who do you think the Democrats want to run???? It’s Sarah Palin because they want to win in 2012. Mike Huckabee has a much better chance of winning against Obama than Sarah Palin does. He even has a better chance against Mitt Romney because of Romneycare which the Republicans in the 2012 primary (when they hear about Romneycare) will definitely not want a Republican candidate who created the original blueprint for Obamacare.
VFT on April 15, 2010 at 12:09 AM
It isn’t the media who voted for these candidates, it was registered voters, like you and me. So, there goes your theory for Huckabee being pushed by the media.
Nobody has been paying attention to Mike Huckabee since he proclaimed on Fox News Sunday with Wallace, that “he was leaning against running in 2012″. So, a lot of people stopped voting for him. Now, if he decides to run in 2012, there will be a lot more people voting for Mike Huckabee than right now. Huckabee has won many polls in the last year, and even Fox News didn’t even post the results, little alone other Republican websites. They ignore him…so your theory that they are pushing Huckabee is absurd. If anything, they push Romney or Sarah.
VFT on April 15, 2010 at 12:13 AM
I wouldn’t mind something like that but I don’t think she, or anyone, should or would run a second time in the second spot on the ticket after having lost there once.
In this poor R field she could grab the nomination. But she will have even more media headwind than normal for any other conservative, even in the primary. The MSM hates her. She throws their prethought notions way off. With the MSM you’re either JFK or Nixon. That was how they grew up. A mom who can field dress a moose is just not in their really quite narrow frame-of-reference. They are not that smart or widely read. News reporters write using about a half-dozen cliches. Their cadences are predetermined. They can think up a glib lead but not often a clever one. Writing to their target 6th grade reading level is even a stretch for most. And your basic on-air personality works through their career at sounding smart. The best of them rise to anchor desks. And then there’s Katie Couric. Dumb and dumb-sounding. The exception that proves the rule. And in that respect she and Palin are both mold-breakers. Palin hunts wolves from choppers (which is awfully cool, but which drives your average metrosexual delirious with hate) and Couric is even dumber than you average anchor person. Something you almost have to intentionally shoot for, but which I think comes natural.
curved space on April 15, 2010 at 6:16 AM
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