2010: Time is already running out for Dems

posted at 6:21 pm on April 1, 2010 by Karl

Democrats are beginning to admit things are looking bad for them in the midterm elections… but they still hope to turn their electoral fortunes on a dime:

Democratic pollster Stan Greenberg said Wednesday that if the 2010 election were held today, his party would be faced with a similar result to its catastrophic 1994 losses.

Greenberg, who was Bill Clinton’s pollster in the early 1990s, went on to say that he doesn’t think the current situation will hold over the next seven months, and that he expects things will improve for Democrats.

Greenberg went on to the talking point that the GOP’s bad public image might prevent the party from taking full advantage of the situation. Yet the favorable rating for the Democratic Party has fallen to its lowest level since Gallup began asking the question in 1992. The GOP’s supposed image problem image did not stop Republicans from winning in Virginia, New Jersey and Massachusetts — and one is hard pressed to find in the polling data races where the Republican candidate is suffering much from the GOP’s supposedly bad image. Greenberg — and Democrats generally — ignore the possibility that voters will care more about stopping the Obama-Pelosi-Reid agenda than about the GOP’s image.

Greenberg also notes an increase in intensity among Democrats after passing ObamaCare — but CNN (and Gallup) showed a similar surge in intensity for Republicans.

Beyond these flimsy rationalizations, Democrats (and Reuters) seem to be clinging to the hope that the public anger with them will fade over the next few months:

By Election Day, developments on jobs, the Iraq and Afghanistan wars and other events could reshape the political landscape.

“I believe that if we begin to see positive job growth, people’s confidence will return, and that will change the dynamic,” says Maryland Rep. Chris Van Hollen, head of the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee. But, he says, “the Democrats obviously face an uphill climb. The question is the steepness of the hill.”

Democrats are likely underestimating how soon political perceptions harden in an election year. Via the Wayback Machine, we can revisit the RNC’s summer meeting in Los Angeles:

One of the sessions at this particular RNC summer meeting was a strategy session in which Republican political demographer John Morgan, Sr., assessed the chances for party candidates in the fall mid-term elections. This closed (to the press) door session was remarkable in that Mr. Morgan went through a slide presentation by region, since we collectively did not have the time to consider each of the 435 separate races for the U.S. House of Representatives, in which he calculated that the likely Republican seat pick-ups would be enough to give the party control of the chamber the following January, after 40 years in the minority. While the audience sat in stunned silence, Mr. Morgan calmly reiterated that his analysis was not based on hype or optimism – he had painstakingly gone through the data in each of the 435 races and confidently concluded that the GOP would win a House majority.

That meeting was held on or about July 21, 1994 — before Hillary Clinton did her infamous bus tour for ClintonCare, before George Mitchell had to pull ClintonCare from the Senate floor, before the House GOP torpedoed the crime bill, well before Newt Gingrich unveiled the Contract With America. Moreover, an analysis of all 435 House races probably took a while to compile, suggesting that the basic shape of the 1994 midterm election was set by summer.

A similar pattern is seen in presidential approval ratings, which correlate with the president’s party’s fortunes in midterm elections. In the modern era, Presidents with approval ratings below 50% have lost an average of 41 House seats in mid-term elections. Moreover, most presidents saw their approval rating drop in the second year of their presidency — on average by five percentage points. The two biggest sophomore slumps belong to Jimmy Carter and Ronald Reagan. Obama’s trajectory to date is similar to that of Carter and Reagan; his approval numbers are unlikely to improve before the midterms, even under a fairly rosy economic scenario. And we have now reached the point where about half the public blames Obama in part for the economy.

In sum, the trendlines for Democrats are bad, and — barring a major, unforeseen event — unlikely to improve by November. Democrats spent a year pretending they had a left-wing mandate and running roughshod over public opinion. It seems unlikely that anything they do in the next three months will prevent the concrete from hardening around their ankles.

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Keep Hope Alive.

juanito on April 1, 2010 at 6:26 PM

Democrats are beginning to admit things are looking bad for them in the midterm elections… but they still hope to turn their electoral fortunes on a dime:

I’d like to call BS, but if November 2008 taught us anything it’s never underestimate the power of stupid.

BigWyo on April 1, 2010 at 6:26 PM

NY Gov has suspended any special election to replace disgraced Democrat Eric Massa…

SEIU/ACORN thug power!

Anybody who believes in voting is a racist!

http://www.cbsnews.com/8301-503544_162-20001593-503544.html

tetriskid on April 1, 2010 at 6:27 PM

Yes, Tick Tock – comforting words.

humdinger on April 1, 2010 at 6:27 PM

It seems unlikely that anything they do in the next three months will prevent the concrete from hardening around their ankles.

Heh. I have a boat and I understand artificial reefs are good for the fishies.

Guardian on April 1, 2010 at 6:28 PM

It seems unlikely that anything they do in the next three months will prevent the concrete from hardening around their ankles.

Sleeping with the fishes, rhetorically of course.

BrianA on April 1, 2010 at 6:28 PM

but they still hope to turn their electoral fortunes on a dime:

Only if they can turn on a dime and give 20 Trillions change.

Lily on April 1, 2010 at 6:29 PM

It seems unlikely that anything they do in the next three months will prevent the concrete from hardening around their ankles.

words to warm my Italian heart….

Fighton03 on April 1, 2010 at 6:29 PM

Just wait until every page of ObowmaCare is exposed as a blue print to how to turn the United States of America into a third world sh%t hole…

… That should play well for the Democrats in November.

Seven Percent Solution on April 1, 2010 at 6:30 PM

aaaaahhhh! The RNC, GOP, RNCC, etc, etc, etc. doesn’t have the cajones for a real fight. I’m not getting my hopes up.

ultracon on April 1, 2010 at 6:31 PM

It seems unlikely that anything they do in the next three months will prevent the concrete from hardening around their ankles.

If anything, they’ll inflame us even more.

Schadenfreude on April 1, 2010 at 6:33 PM

Hhhmmmmm…

Republican Message:

“We will actually listen to the people, no bill shall be longer than the Constitution, we will stop the spending, laws and regulations that caused this problem in the first place will be repealed, and we will cut the size of governent to 1950′s levels.”

Democrat Message:

“I didn’t know THAT was in the bill…”

I think we just might have a chance…

Seven Percent Solution on April 1, 2010 at 6:37 PM

aaaaahhhh! The RNC, GOP, RNCC, etc, etc, etc. doesn’t have the cajones for a real fight. I’m not getting my hopes up.

ultracon on April 1, 2010 at 6:31 PM

The Allah part of me thinks this, but another part of me keeps whispering “Rope-A-Dope”. The article reminds us that the Contract With America didn’t come out until July. And there could be some sharp minds in the RNC ( or maybe TEA Party or Palin) are writing a new one right now. Not those things that were laughed at a while back.

Something like “We cannot repeal and replace this without your help”. And “the democrats intentionally wrote this to need 67 senate votes to overturn”.

cozmo on April 1, 2010 at 6:40 PM

Amazingly, our poser in chief had decided to continue using the “Go for it” taunt to Republicans when addressing his crowds of idiots. Take that clip, make it into a 15 second spot that can easily be run on radio, TV, etc. and saturate the airwaves with it come October. Go for it indeed.

Sugar Land on April 1, 2010 at 6:42 PM

Wouldn’t it PO Dear Leader if the GOP adopted Hope and Change as it’s mantra this round of elections?

Dingbat63 on April 1, 2010 at 6:42 PM

Republicans: Don’t count your chickens before they are hatched. You blew it also..

gstrickler on April 1, 2010 at 6:43 PM

This group started last week and is already at 1+ members & growing… lets push it to 5+


I bet we can find 1,000,000+ people who disapprove of the Health Care Bill

tetriskid on April 1, 2010 at 6:46 PM

Whether the Dems realize it or not, they lost this election in the effort to push unpopular legislation and drive so much debt. It was lost long before the final votes on health care, as the elections in Masachusetts, New Jersey, and Virginia indicate.

The Dems have done nothing to stem the concern that has created their problems. They continue to spend profligately. They continue to pursue leftists agendas that are not popular with the public. In short, they have learned nothing from their troubles and continue to dig deeper.

I think that this mid-term will be at least as devastating as 1994 for the Dems, and I can see a 50 seat flip as possible in the House of Representatives. While the Republicans are unlikely to take control of the senate, I can see a six or seven seat gain there as well. That will give the Republican Senate caucus the ability to easily block any legislative initiatives by Democrats in that body.

I feel that the power to unilaterally dictate policy is all but over for the Dems right now. With the exception of Lindsay Grahams stupidity, I think the Republicans will be able to hold their Senate caucus together well enough to keep any more major legislative initiatives from passing prior to the elections because at this point they will be aided by some of the Blue Dog Democrats desperately trying to save themselves in the House. At this point ti will be every Democrat for themselves after the failure of Obamacare to supply a bounce for them.

Hawthorne on April 1, 2010 at 6:47 PM

Tick tock.

grapeknutz on April 1, 2010 at 6:54 PM

The R’s believe this kind of stuff at their peril. They will be the target of a massive (shock and awe) air and ground campaign against them.

The press smells final victory over the R’s. They know that the constant smearing of tea party people and conservatives will be effect at the margins. And that’s all they need.

Also, Nancy has planned this well. She let enough D’s off the hook so that many D’s can survive. Don’t underestimate the cleverness of this strategy. These “saved D’s” will vote next with her, even though they may look like “moderate” Dems now. It is shrewd politics

They are playing for keeps now…it ain’t going to be pretty. When O talks about post-partison I think we’re being to understand what he means.

r keller on April 1, 2010 at 6:55 PM

GREAT ANALYSIS

John the Libertarian on April 1, 2010 at 6:56 PM

Don’t forget the Tea Party Express is going across America. That will keep people in the game.

Mirimichi on April 1, 2010 at 6:57 PM

Karl, I think it evident that voters want to vote for Republicans if the party leadership can be trusted.

Unfortunately, news stories, like today’s, describing Clintonian triangulation on Obamacare from Mitch McConnell worry people. Can the Republicans really be trusted this time? Or will we get more Bush-like “compassionate conservative” pap again…

MTF on April 1, 2010 at 6:59 PM

This is where each and everyone of us plays an important role. To keep this anger alive beyond November and into 2012.

voiceofreason on April 1, 2010 at 7:07 PM

We need to prove to Democrats that time is running out by helping conservative candidates win in each of the 5 Special Elections that are scheduled for the next few weeks in”

Florida
Hawaii
Pennsylvania
Georgia
New York

http://www.latimes.com/news/nationworld/nation/la-na-special-elections26-2010mar26,0,230028.story

Then we need to focus on helping conservative candidates win in the Primary Elections in each state.

Here is the schedule for upcoming Primary elections:

http://politicalwire.com/archives/2010/01/03/congressional_primary_calendar.html

Then we can focus on voting the remaining Democrats out of office in November.

We have a lot of work to do BEFORE November!

wren on April 1, 2010 at 7:08 PM

I think that 2010 will be horrible for the dems. I actually think that this year will be worse than 1994. I would not be surprised to see the dems lose as many as 70 seats

ConservativePartyNow on April 1, 2010 at 7:09 PM

BOOM: ED KOCH EXPLODES OVER OBAMA’S DIS OF ISREAL. SAYS OBAMA ONLY INTERESTED IN MUSLIMS

http://www.foxnews.com/politics/2010/04/01/koch-outraged-obamas-treatment-israel-housing-construction/

andy85719 on April 1, 2010 at 7:12 PM

And the best part is, the Dems can’t say they didn’t do it to themselves.

Sekhmet on April 1, 2010 at 7:13 PM

Get involved with your local GOP. I did.

Sekhmet on April 1, 2010 at 7:13 PM

I think we are going to see the rise of yellow dog republicans.

That is, people will vote for a yellow dog in the election if it is a republican.

Blue dogs are going to be horse meat.

Dhuka on April 1, 2010 at 7:16 PM

From your mouth to God’s ear.

Several things that give me pause are:

1) This time around the Dems are aware of the risk despite having pooh-poohed it and developed optimistic projections for recovery.
2) The Mainstream Media is also aware. They’ll be doing their level best to protect the Dems through November and that’s always worth a few extra points.
3) We keep having idiotic mini-scandals erupting that cause conservative & moderate GOP members to snarl at one another. We flat out don’t need Tony Perkins telling people to stiff the RNC because of the expense account idiocy. No matter what – we have got to pull together this year. It’s our best opportunity to limit the damage Obama & co. can wreak on this nation during his Presidency. As a pro-choice moderate – I’ll happily support & vote for a social conservative to see a Dem lose.

Jill1066 on April 1, 2010 at 7:21 PM

We bide our time until November.

Philly on April 1, 2010 at 7:24 PM

The Rasmussen numbers have improved. The strongly support has gone up 5 to 10 points. So this shows the enthusiasm has increased (in his base)…still the gap favors the R’s.

The one message that all R and R leaning folks have to embrace is that a “divided” government is best for the country…we can not have 1 party rul.

So any non-Leftist should vote for the R’s just on that basis regardless of this or that position.

r keller on April 1, 2010 at 7:28 PM

We have a lot of work to do BEFORE November!

wren on April 1, 2010 at 7:08 PM

Yes, lets keep our eyes on the ball. If we don’t focus on getting democrats out of Congress in 2010, then Obama and the Dems can do a lot more damage to our country before 2012 comes up.

Lets focus on 2010 right now.

Conservative Samizdat on April 1, 2010 at 7:32 PM

Found this in my inbox

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=k2iiirr5KI8&feature=player_embedded
Jackpot

macncheez on April 1, 2010 at 7:52 PM

I’m trying to get people on the blogs to adopt this mantra: “A vote for a Dem is a vote for a Progressive Socialist”. Pound that into all the independent voters out there that are not all that politically engaged. Ride the economy that President Commie has done nothing about in lieu of passing healthcare that doesn’t even kick in for four more years and these guys have to crash and burn. Remember, it’s voting with the wallet to the people in the middle who decide elections. I’m especially fond of Conservatives starting to use Saul Alinsky tactics against the Progressive Socialist Statists that started that crap in the first place.

So remember to drive this home: “A vote for a Democrat is a vote for a Progressive Socialist”. I hope it’s a Tsunami that drowns the entire Democrat Party this year. America needs it to survive….

adamsmith on April 1, 2010 at 8:11 PM

It seems unlikely that anything they do in the next three months will prevent the concrete from hardening around their ankles.

Now that’s a mental image we can get behind!
And shove!
Over the side!

2ipa on April 1, 2010 at 8:21 PM

Ya we still have April 15th, 4th of July, Becks assembly on Aug 28th and a Tea Party in DC on 9/12. Not much time to forget all the lost jobs, high prices, cost of gov’t and billions in handouts. Me thinky dems stinky!

tim c on April 1, 2010 at 8:22 PM

I really do not believe the GOP will listen. They see a land slide for them in November and it will be the same old BS after they get in office. They will play the same old game and piss off the people backing them in this upcoming election and blame it on what ever and we will be back where we started from. The politicians have no idea about the world outside of the belt (DC) It’s amazing that they think we are illiterate but by God we can vote them out when they screw up.

mixplix on April 1, 2010 at 8:23 PM

adamsmith on April 1, 2010 at 8:11 PM

That’s the truth.

tim c on April 1, 2010 at 8:25 PM

It seems unlikely that anything they do in the next three months will prevent the concrete from hardening around their ankles.

It’s unlikely that the dems will give up their disdain for the American public and the constitution so the fire in our guts against them should continue to simmer. They also will not be able to resist taking shots at the tea parties and that will help too especially if the tea party demonstations ramp up the closer we get to November. We have to keep the pressure on them cause if we do they are guaranteed to overreact.

docdave on April 1, 2010 at 8:30 PM

November 3, 2010:

Barack Obama said Wednesday that he would not accept the results of the election. Democrats, claiming massive fraud, have demanded manual recounts of votes cast in the November 2 elections until all Democrats come out ahead and said they plan to file a federal discrimination law suit against dead peoples votes not being counted past their first four ballots. Barack Obama, Hugo Chavez, Fidel Castro and Mahmoud Ahmadinejad have all said the elections were not credible and urged Democrat Senators and Representatives who were fraudulently defeated at the polls to barricade themselves in their offices until Eric Holder, SEIC and ACORN could sort everything out.

MB4 on April 1, 2010 at 8:45 PM

It’s not too late for the Senate RINOS to pull defeat from the jaws of victory with something like cap & tax and shamnesty…

drfredc on April 1, 2010 at 8:49 PM

If only I could believe the Republicans would stick to their guns. Sadly, I have my doubts.

mobydutch on April 1, 2010 at 9:04 PM

perhaps a glimmer of light at the end of the tunnel???

huskerdiva on April 1, 2010 at 9:38 PM


Via the Wayback Machine, we can revisit the RNC’s summer meeting in Los Angeles: …That meeting was held on or about July 21, 1994….

The link to the “Wayback Machine” brings up blog entries from 2006.

Kralizec on April 1, 2010 at 9:41 PM

The Dems think they have it bad, but they don’t know yet how bad. They paid for a party last year with the Stimulus bill and the 2009 budget using the taxpayer’s money and now the bill is coming due. Every single piece of pork that was in those two bills, every single wasted earmark, every single ridiculous expenditure THEY OWN and they’re going to be called on to justify every cent. “Hmmm yes … Sen/Congressman Blah-blah with the economy in shambles why did you think it was important to spend a million dollars on a turtle tunnel? …”

Voters vote on the things they value and one of things they value right now is thrift because that’s how people are surviving in this economy and woe to the candidate who isn’t practicing it.

PackerBronco on April 1, 2010 at 10:38 PM

We need to prove to Democrats that time is running out by helping conservative candidates win in each of the 5 Special Elections that are scheduled for the next few weeks in”

Florida
Hawaii
Pennsylvania
Georgia
New York

wren on April 1, 2010 at 7:08 PM

We probably cannot get Hawaii. That state is so Democratic that most elections there are unopposed by Rs. But I will say this, if we can get Hawaii, then we can get about any state.

Hawthorne on April 1, 2010 at 11:19 PM

Does it matter?

I mean … we went from Reagan to “read my lips, no new taxes” and from there to Bubba Clinton.

We went from Contract With America to Clinton’s second term and “compassionate conservatism”.

We The People, for some reason, are perfectly satisfied to stop the idiocy, but not to roll it back.

Conservatives, specifically, have some kind of problem actually consolidating victory and .. governing. Historically, we’ve stormed the gates, thrown the bums out, then .. gone home.

The problem with this strategy is that the bums have gotten smarter – now they know they just need to hang out at think tanks or faculty meeting rooms until we get tired.

This time, if Conservatives win, we need to be prepared to stay until relieved by the next generation. No going home.

Mew

acat on April 2, 2010 at 12:13 AM

It doesn’t matter. The President is going around the Congress already and it’s his party. If Republicans control both houses, Obama will just ignore them and rule by decree. EPA already has sweeping powers, Fed will have power to have executives fired in private companies, and take over companies. The left will not go quietly. Many of the dead will rise from grave and vote. I fear they will start trying to push right extremist to act out by going after more Christian militias, gun grabs and infiltrate tea party to cause trouble.
The heat is maximum on both sides and i fear where this is all heading. I cannot see them just give up. If they lose it will be riots in streets and people power grab with executive branch agreeing. Suspension of constitution.
This a very dangerous time in US history we need to get the Vote overwhelming pro tea party to remove any doubt. It will be hard to impeach Obama with out full civil war resulting.
We have not seen the worse yet. Lets keep the high ground and control our selfs not to be tempted to go violent. We need to restore this country but not with blood.

Ed Laskie on April 2, 2010 at 7:17 AM

November 2nd can’t come soon enough…

Thank you, Governor Patterson! Would your decision to NOT CALL A SPECIAL ELECTION FOR AN OPEN SEAT IN CONGRESS be considered an “okeydoke” or just a “bamboozle”?

Khun Joe on April 2, 2010 at 8:05 AM

Its not that they are becoming unpopular, it is just that their appeal is becoming more selective….

H/T “Spinal Tap”

Vashta.Nerada on April 2, 2010 at 8:48 AM

Beyond these flimsy rationalizations, Democrats (and Reuters) seem to be clinging to the hope that the public anger with them will fade over the next few months

Good point.

It would be in their best interest to “quiet down” (and keep cooking the books to ensure complacency and make the sheeple wonder ‘What the hell are those tea baggers ticked off about? Everything’s fine.’) but are they willing to risk a more difficult time (notice I didn’t type “impossibility”) in ramming through even more Marxist programs?

If the Politburo bosses aren’t sure they can hold onto at least a simple majority, then they might shelve some of their projects until after the elections. On the other hand, that might mean that they will have to go into hyperdrive in order to get done what they can before it’s too late.

With talk of some kind of Socialist “spring offensive” I’m thinking they know they’ll probably lose big in November.

But, I don’t think it really matters either way at this point. They’ve gotten just too powerful and the GOP is acting like this is 1980 or the early ’90s. The days of conservative congressmen bailing the country out of the Leftists’ messes are over I’m afraid.

Dr. ZhivBlago on April 2, 2010 at 12:44 PM