Gallup crumble: ObamaCare underwater again, GOP surges on generic ballot

posted at 6:05 pm on March 29, 2010 by Allahpundit

The One’s bounce has already started to fade but the numbers for the bill itself were an open question since Gallup’s shocker last week showing a surge of support to 49/40. Momentary spike due to glowing media coverage of the historic historicness of passage? Or a sustained rise as Americans reconcile themselves psychologically to their horrific new boondoggle?

An answer, perhaps:

In the poll, 50% call passage of the bill “a bad thing” and 47% say it was “a good thing.” That’s at odds with the findings of a one-day USA TODAY Poll taken a week ago — a day after the U.S. House approved the legislation — in which a 49%-40% plurality called the bill “a good thing.”…

The failure of the new law to get even plurality support is especially sobering for House Democrats from competitive congressional districts who heeded pleas from the White House and congressional leaders to vote “yes.” The legislation passed 219-212, with just three votes to spare.

“There was on the Democratic side a burst of enthusiasm after it passed saying, ‘Ah, now voters are being won over,’ ” says Charles Franklin, a political scientist at the University of Wisconsin-Madison who studies polling. “The cumulating data this past seven days says that, no, a miracle didn’t happen and the public didn’t suddenly change their views on this. It means that the Democrats still face a tough sell of a public close to evenly divided on this and even slightly more opposed than in favor, and that difficulty didn’t go away with passage.”

And here’s some completely unrelated news, I’m sure:

gb

To give you a sense of how startling it is for the GOP to actually lead on the generic ballot, revisit this Gallup piece from November comparing major electoral waves to the generic ballot polling that preceded them. The Democrats almost always lead; even in the red tide of 1994, the final generic ballot showed the parties even at 46/46. What does that mean for this year? Well, Gallup constructed the following statistical model to try to predict Democratic gains or losses.

predict

So unexpectedly low is 44 percent that they didn’t even bother to model it. Although the results are clear enough: If these numbers held on election day, you’d be looking at upwards of 60 seats flipping. Which isn’t the first time we’ve heard that speculation.

But wait. If Democratic enthusiasm is surging due to passage of O-Care, how can it be that the GOP’s actually gaining on the generic ballot? This was the left’s big argument, after all — that only by ramming that beast through and energizing the base could they save themselves in November. Well, here’s your answer:

enthus

They lit a fire under progressives’ asses — and under independents’ and Republicans’ too. Riling up your base doesn’t help much if it riles up your opponents’ base almost as much, especially when that opponent’s starting at higher enthusiasm levels to begin with. And a fearless prediction for you on that note: As hot to vote as Republicans are now, that number will actually go up as the year drags on. A 15-point edge is not necessarily the high-water mark here, or so I suspect.

One last note. I’ve been dumping on national polls periodically with the reminder that there is no “national” House election, only 435 local ones. It’s the swing states, as always, that count. So how’s O-Care faring these days in a swing state The One carried two years ago? Why, worse than it is in the national poll: 34/54, with 62 percent of independents and 65 percent of seniors disapproving. “Senator Rubio” sure has a nice ring to it.


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angryed on March 29, 2010 at 6:52 PM

no doubt…it’s pretty serious

cmsinaz on March 29, 2010 at 6:54 PM

The only option Obama, and the Dems will have, is to declare themselves lifetime rulers. I’m betting between now, and November, something BIG along these lines will try and be pulled by them.

capejasmine on March 29, 2010 at 6:49 PM

I agree. They’re not going to back down on ObamaCare, even if the Supreme Court rules against them, and the only way he can impose the rest of his agenda is by fiat.

darwin on March 29, 2010 at 6:54 PM

One wonders why people persist in ignorance of this behemoth. It’s fascism to have central government dictate commerce to business at the point of a gun. Fascism is Obama’s bridge to the gray socialism the Dems plan for their subjects, us.

Mojave Mark on March 29, 2010 at 6:59 PM

These people are going to CHEAT in November like NEVER before. The War Rooms are already flooded with talking heads and the FINEST cheating consultants on the face of the planet. They will be coming out in record numbers (dead or alive). We need to pull out all the stops and stop THEM in their sinister tracks! If you think the PANTHERS were a problemo at the precincts in 08 well think again!! It will be like voting armageddon! So dont just wander out whistling dixie (can i say that) in November. Strike up the band and run like the wind…….We need EVERYONE to vote. Knock on doors , rally at civic events and lets show up for a LANDSLIDE !!

justonevictory on March 29, 2010 at 7:00 PM

how ’bout that Dem Senator from Colorado? I hear that Organizing for America is going to send 1/2 of its SEIU “volunteers” to CO to save his seat & their other 1/2 to the 5th CD Va to try to save Perriello’s butt.

kelley in virginia on March 29, 2010 at 6:43 PM

Oh great, bet the tea parties will be a barrel of laughs this year if those characters are in town working overtime

Colorado Anne on March 29, 2010 at 7:00 PM

I suggest BHO needs to continue energizing the Democratski base. I think around late September he should have a prime time news conference where he would unveil a new, sweeping gun control measure. A measure that bans a giant list of firearms and includes labeling telescopic sights as “sniper” devices.

Yeah, he should do that.

Pelayo on March 29, 2010 at 7:02 PM

Senator Rubio does have a nice ring.

King Obama has a nice ring as well (for the left).

I think the latter is more likely than the former given a) the unprecendented amount of SEIU/ACORN vote fraud in 2010 and b) a big time crisis that Obama will not allow to go to waste. Reichstag fire anyone?

angryed on March 29, 2010 at 7:03 PM

The Commerce Department clause?

darwin on March 29, 2010 at 6:49 PM

Nah…the “good and welfare” clause

lukespapa on March 29, 2010 at 7:08 PM

how ’bout that Dem Senator from Colorado? I hear that Organizing for America is going to send 1/2 of its SEIU “volunteers” to CO to save his seat & their other 1/2 to the 5th CD Va to try to save Perriello’s butt.

kelley in virginia on March 29, 2010 at 6:43 PM

The “progressive healthcare hero” Bennett is toast. Burned toast. I would be surprised if he carries a single county outside of Boulder. The GOP will win the governorship + several house seats as well. Colorado is turning strongly red again thanks to Obama.

Norwegian on March 29, 2010 at 7:09 PM

Chrystal and Krauthammer predicted Pinnochio will push Cap and Tax and card check between now and Nov. Every lefty bill he can and push his dumbs on the grounds that, well, your seat is lost due to healthcare so might as well go all in.

They didn’t mention amnesty making me wonder if they are both on board for that one as is Grahamnasty obviously and McShame if he could get away with it.
Hold his feet to the fire JD.

Brit Hume suggested a VAT during the lame duck session between Nov and Jan.

If this punk tries it I’m not sure voting will be the solution, it may be that stronger measures are required to let the commies know we will not go quietly into slavery!

dhunter on March 29, 2010 at 7:16 PM

I informed several of my colleagues and close acquaintances that they will be paying 40% more on OTC purchases.

Sams Club experienced a boon. Let’s make the most of this, folks. Personally, I encourage patronage of the smaller drug retailers. Come 7/1/10 it’s a 40% spike.

And, the tanning tax is Racist.

Key West Reader on March 29, 2010 at 7:18 PM

Megalomaniacs are prone to believe that they can get away with anything.
I predict a HUGE scandal involving President Scooter sometime next year.
Impeachment proceedings will follow and unlike Clenis, this time they will nail the man.

carbon_footprint on March 29, 2010 at 7:22 PM

Do you remember the 21st night of September November?
Love was changing the mind of pretenders
While chasing the clouds away

Schadenfreude on March 29, 2010 at 7:24 PM

Megalomaniacs are prone to believe that they can get away with anything.
I predict a HUGE scandal involving President Scooter sometime next year.
Impeachment proceedings will follow and unlike Clenis, this time they will nail the man.

carbon_footprint on March 29, 2010 at 7:22 PM

Trying to get Pelosi to start impeachment proceedings against Obama would be more difficult than extracting a wisdom tooth from a wolverine without anesthesia.

rplat on March 29, 2010 at 7:29 PM

It’s this simple. We don’t like what they did. We don’t like the way they did it. What about that is so hard for Democrats to understand?

RebeccaH on March 29, 2010 at 7:33 PM

The Pelosi arrogance re O-care is beyond arrogance. This woman is programmed to spout talking points completely divorced from reality.
http://www.sfgate.com/cgi-bin/blogs/nov05election/detail?entry_id=60139&tsp=1

onlineanalyst on March 29, 2010 at 7:34 PM

It’s this simple. We don’t like what they did. We don’t like the way they did it. What about that is so hard for Democrats to understand?

RebeccaH on March 29, 2010 at 7:33 PM

They are doing what is best for you. Don’t be an ungrateful snot.

s/

Aviator on March 29, 2010 at 7:35 PM

Just got back from Searchlight, where the Tea Party had quite a demonstration of enthusiasm. We were among those who parked and walked for about an hour to get to the site. The demographics of the walkers was broad: All ages, all races, lots of women, many pushing strollers, lots of vets, one with a metal prosthetic leg. Everyone in good humor, and everyone mad as hell and sure to vote.

GaltBlvnAtty on March 29, 2010 at 7:37 PM

The Hunt For a Red November……

coming this fall, to voting booths near you….

ted c on March 29, 2010 at 7:39 PM

I’m working on one of those 435 local races in Dallas. STEPHEN BRODEN is the first chance in almost 20 years to kick Eddie Bernice Johnson out of her seat!
Google him and donate what you can.
parteagirl on March 29, 2010 at 6:22 PM

Oh yeah. Check this guy out. My bucks are going directly to guys like this. First donation, Tonight. More as I can.

Wolfen on March 29, 2010 at 7:42 PM

Wolfen on March 29, 2010 at 7:42 PM

Stephen Broden, eh? *note to self* I’ll check him out too.

ted c on March 29, 2010 at 7:43 PM

“Senator Rubio” sure has a nice ring to it.

The New Guards

–Jefferson

ted c on March 29, 2010 at 7:49 PM

Democrats will pine for these numbers in November as our economy continues to suck hind tit.

There’s nothing the Carny-in-Chief is going to do to help the economy – his agenda is a job killer, point blank.

And his lunatic list is to the right of the insane clown posse members of the Sideshow Congress.

You think Waxman, Pelosi and Frank are going to do a damn thing to get this economy of it’s back?

If so, you are as delusional as Barack Obama himself.

NoDonkey on March 29, 2010 at 7:49 PM

GaltBlvnAtty on March 29, 2010 at 7:37 PM

How was that parachute ride in? /s

bernzright777 on March 29, 2010 at 7:52 PM

Did you guys know that
20,000,000 jobs were created this week?

blatantblue on March 29, 2010 at 6:23 PM

in China?

Red State State of Mind on March 29, 2010 at 7:58 PM

Like I’ve been saying for the past six months: Republicans will pick up 50 to 70 seats. That’s now the low-end estimate. If the RNC doesn’t screw up, it could as high as 100.

InterestedObserver on March 29, 2010 at 7:59 PM

The Hunt For a Red November……

coming this fall, to voting booths near you….

ted c on March 29, 2010 at 7:39 PM

speaking of which, haven’t seen Fred & Jeri much lately; hopefully they’ll be out campaigning for the patriots trying to reestablish the Republic this November

Red State State of Mind on March 29, 2010 at 8:00 PM

parteagirl on March 29, 2010 at 6:22 PM

Oh yeah. Check this guy out. My bucks are going directly to guys like this. First donation, Tonight. More as I can.

Wolfen on March 29, 2010 at 7:42 PM

Here in the People’s Republic of Maryland, we’re blessed with ONE truly Conservative Congressman who will win without the need for many additional funds, so when I do have any $ to spare, it goes to other districts. I think you should keep asking everyone you communicate with, here on HA and elsewhere, to keep that in mind as 2010 progresses. If 1 million people give $ 100 to a viable Conservative candidate in a winable ditrict, they’ll be doing the work of patriots, and will help that candidate get his/her message out despite the skewed ‘journalism’ of the MSM.
And if the next 1` million give to the next Candidate, one by one these interlopers can be sent back to LaLaLand.

Red State State of Mind on March 29, 2010 at 8:06 PM

And, the tanning tax is Racist.

Key West Reader on March 29, 2010 at 7:18 PM

Why does Obama hate Soccer moms and Sorority girls?

Red State State of Mind on March 29, 2010 at 8:08 PM

OT

Let us not forget that the Census Bureau is now under the jurisdiction of the White House, not the Dept. of Commerce.

Commandante Zero’s very own troops.

Dhuka on March 29, 2010 at 8:20 PM

OT

Let us not forget that the Census Bureau is now under the jurisdiction of the White House, not the Dept. of Commerce.

Commandante Zero’s very own troops.

Dhuka on March 29, 2010 at 8:20 PM

When the census is done, well there’s his civilian army he was talking so much about

Colorado Anne on March 29, 2010 at 8:32 PM

Utterly predictable. This is what happens when you run on a “Divided we stand, United we fall” platform. Keep dissing us moron. This joker is as much a deep thinker as is Al Bundy.

yobobbyb on March 29, 2010 at 8:34 PM

The enthusiasm gap will only grow larger over time. People get complacent when they’ve got what they want. On the opposite end of the spectrum, people are energized when feeling threatened.

Back in 2006, Democrats took Congress back due to the apathy of Republican voters. In 1994 the Democrats lost control due to an energized conservative base.

I remember the political atmosphere very well from back in 1994. And to be quite honest, it’s nothing compared to the angst on the right now.

Being from the 5th district in Virginia, I can guarantee I will do everything in my power to make sure Perriello loses. SEIU is already spending the money like crazy for him and in a right to work state, that won’t go over too well.

ButterflyDragon on March 29, 2010 at 8:55 PM

The Hunt For a Red November……

coming this fall, to voting booths near you….

ted c on March 29, 2010 at 7:39 PM

one ping only

cmsinaz on March 29, 2010 at 8:59 PM

How come Bill O’Reilly was just spouting the exact opposite tonight? He says that Obama has a lead over all Republican candidates and the Gallup generic has the Dems ahead especially after the healthcare vote.

What’s up with that?

jaimo on March 29, 2010 at 9:35 PM

I remember the political atmosphere very well from back in 1994. And to be quite honest, it’s nothing compared to the angst on the right now.

The gathering storm.

I am not a racist on March 29, 2010 at 9:57 PM

How come Bill O’Reilly was just spouting the exact opposite tonight? He says that Obama has a lead over all Republican candidates and the Gallup generic has the Dems ahead especially after the healthcare vote.

What’s up with that?

jaimo on March 29, 2010 at 9:35 PM

When Al Sharpton said he has personally seen the tapes where the teapartiers used racial slurs against a congressman, BO challenged him for once and then let it go. He should have demanded that Rev Al produce the tapes. He won’t, because there are no tapes.

bloggless on March 29, 2010 at 10:34 PM

What’s up with that?

jaimo on March 29, 2010 at 9:35 PM

Bill O is just trying to be seen as in The Won’s camp so he can score an interview. It’s sickening and he needs to wipe his mouth.

Oldnuke on March 29, 2010 at 10:36 PM

He should have demanded that Rev Al produce the tapes. He won’t, because there are no tapes.

bloggless on March 29, 2010 at 10:34 PM

He should have just flat out called him a liar and stated that it didn’t happen.

Oldnuke on March 29, 2010 at 10:38 PM

So unexpectedly low is 44 percent that they didn’t even bother to model it. Although the results are clear enough: If these numbers held on election day, you’d be looking at upwards of 60 seats flipping. Which isn’t the first time we’ve heard that speculation.

I think this is wrong. The chart describes the share of the two party vote, not the total percentage. If the Republicans are up 47/44, then that means the Democrats have 44/(44+47)=44/91 = 48.3% of the two party vote. So we are close to taking the house, but not quite there by this model.

RINO in Name Only on March 29, 2010 at 10:47 PM

“If it’s not close, they can’t cheat.”

Not that they won’t try. The more we can expose their fraud machine, the better.

LarryD on March 29, 2010 at 11:18 PM

Bill O reilly: “Wait….you mean….Obama is a socialist??” (eyes bugged out) “Nah…come on I don’t believe THAT!”

B Man on March 30, 2010 at 12:50 AM

Reap the whirlwind my friends on the left, reap the whirlwind.

AZfederalist on March 30, 2010 at 1:13 AM

I really can see the House flipping to Republican control in the 2010 elections. The Senate will be a lot tougher. The Dems have eight safe seats in the election. So the Republicans would have to win every single race that they have any chance in at all. I would say that getting to 47 or 48 votes is very possible though.

Hawthorne on March 30, 2010 at 2:01 AM

Gah.

I keep hearing my friends and those on here talk about november as being the time to boost these Commie bastards out of office.

It sounds great but come on now. Who are we going to replace them with? GOP insiders? The exact same people who got us in this mess in the first place?

Come on now, we have got a long way to november. Lets not focus on the Dems just yet, they will get what’s coming to them later this year regardless. Right now we have got to fight against the GOP establishment and start putting REAL fiscal conservatives and real defensive hawks of the GOP into office.

Now should be about booting the so called RINO’s and replacing THEM through the Primary system. November will get here soon enough.

MadDogF on March 30, 2010 at 7:03 AM

Trying to get Pelosi to start impeachment proceedings against Obama would be more difficult than extracting a wisdom tooth from a wolverine without anesthesia.

rplat on March 29, 2010 at 7:29 PM

If the Corruptocrats lose the majority in the house Nazi Nancy Pelosi goes back to being just another congresscritter from California. She will probably be investigated for her misuse of power and outright theft during her tenure as Speaker and in the end will be doing alot of time at a Club Fed. It will be OK, though-she won’t be lonely. In fact it will look like a meeting of the Corruptocrat congressional leadership with Dodd, Frank, Waxman, Waters, Rangel and the rest of them all in there too.

Nahanni on March 30, 2010 at 9:13 AM

I love the flavor of this thread, it almost makes me….optimistic….

Unfortunately, here’s what’s gonna happen….

The economy will not turn around, but the dems and the media (virtually all of it) will be telling people from here to November that it is improving, and they don’t have to convince everyone. Just a majority in swing districts. Look for yourself, they’re already doing this.

The healthcare battle is over, they won (again) because our fellow Americans handed them juuuuust enough power to get them over the finish line. No matter how many seats republicans win, they will NEVER repeal this mess. Lie to yourselves if it makes you feel better, but you know this is true.

So ultimately, it doesn’t matter how well the republicans do in November. We’ve now been set up as a model european country, our politics will shift to center left because most people prefer to eat than follow politics (or be free, disturbing as we find that).

runawayyyy on March 30, 2010 at 9:26 AM

There are still way too many people with a gigantic sense of entitlement. It’s going to take a looong time.

:(

rollthedice on March 30, 2010 at 9:34 AM

Lynch in Florida will be the loudest shot heard round the country. This is in a very blue area and he needs all the help he can get. The seniors there need to know about all the wonderful changes coming their way for medicare.

Kissmygrits on March 30, 2010 at 9:34 AM

The DNC is turning out to be the party of criminals who will do anything and everything to keep in power. They are going to ‘ally’ the illegals here pretty soon to make sure they get their votes. Its a civil cold war in progress.

johnnyU on March 30, 2010 at 9:37 AM

The way I see it; The only way to offset the debt being mounted on future generations, is to spread it out among more debtors; By this I mean have more kids.
The only difference between the United States and China, for future generations, will be the language. Those Obamao T shirts are prophetic.

Cybergeezer on March 30, 2010 at 9:37 AM

I know booting Waxman out of office is a long-shot, but I’m volunteering for his opponent, Ari David. A girl can dream! Please check Ari out and send some money to his campaign. http://www.aridavidforcongress.com

surfhut on March 30, 2010 at 10:30 AM

The Hunt For a Red November……

coming this fall, to voting booths near you….

ted c on March 29, 2010 at 7:39 PM

one ping only

cmsinaz on March 29, 2010 at 8:59 PM

Most things in here don’t react too well to bullsh!t.

ElectricPhase on March 30, 2010 at 10:32 AM

he is ramming ahead on amnesty and cap and trade anyway

see here

the lame duck session will be a nightmare

ginaswo on March 30, 2010 at 10:35 AM

If the Corruptocrats lose the majority in the house Nazi Nancy Pelosi goes back to being just another congresscritter from California. She will probably be investigated for her misuse of power and outright theft during her tenure as Speaker and in the end will be doing alot of time at a Club Fed. It will be OK, though-she won’t be lonely. In fact it will look like a meeting of the Corruptocrat congressional leadership with Dodd, Frank, Waxman, Waters, Rangel and the rest of them all in there too.

Nahanni on March 30, 2010 at 9:13 AM

What a dream this would be. If only dreams came true.

fossten on March 30, 2010 at 10:52 AM

Per WSJ online, The O-Bama is choosing to be confrontational while he is “on a roll.” Go for it, Obama! Keep whacking that hornet’s nest!

How to reply? READ THE BILL…..ALOUD! On talk radio, at press conferences, through campaign advertising. The horrors of this bill speak for itself. USE IT AS A WEAPON (figuratively, of course)!

olesparkie on March 30, 2010 at 11:17 AM

Hey B.O.! Half the country didnt vote for ya! Lock us all up.

Oh and congradulations to Chaz Bono by the way on her converting to now be a fat ugly guy. Let us know how that works out for ya.

johnnyU on March 30, 2010 at 11:52 AM

Gallup today has the Miracle at 50% disapproval.

Schadenfreude on March 30, 2010 at 12:27 PM

S/b “Miracle in your Face”

Schadenfreude on March 30, 2010 at 12:27 PM

Sorry, not Gallup, it’s USAToday.

Schadenfreude on March 30, 2010 at 12:29 PM

Look at all the races won by Democrats by less than 5 points in 2006 and 2008 in conservative leaning districts and consider them practically assured of flipping Republican.

That is quite a few seats right there.

crosspatch on March 30, 2010 at 2:38 PM

The Hunt For a Red November……

coming this fall, to voting booths near you….

ted c on March 29, 2010 at 7:39 PM

one ping only
cmsinaz on March 29, 2010 at 8:59 PM

Give us a ping, Wasilla? One ping only please!

Most things in here don’t react too well to bullsh!t.
ElectricPhase on March 30, 2010 at 10:32 AM

RD on March 30, 2010 at 4:27 PM

Looks like Obamination had better hope he can change the 50 states to 57 if he hopes to change his defeat in 2012.

chickasaw42 on March 30, 2010 at 5:40 PM

Predictions are for the highest level of non-compliance on answering questions in the history of the census.

chemman on March 29, 2010 at 6:42 PM

I wrote in “American” in “other” for the race answer. :)

I wonder if one of those 750K paid census workers will knock on my door to see I have blonde hair and blue eyes.

karenhasfreedom on March 31, 2010 at 1:03 PM

Comment pages: 1 2