Cantor: No, really, we think Pelosi’s seven votes short

posted at 6:45 pm on March 19, 2010 by Allahpundit

I’m unpersuaded. He’s starting with 178 Republican no’s — Cao, he insists, he is a “firm no,” but all that really means is that Cao won’t flip unless passage is assured. They need 38 Democrats to kill it and, luckily enough, 37 Democrats voted no in November. We pick up the story there:

Of those [37], five have publicly switched their votes to yes. That leaves 32. In addition, some others might change their votes to yes as well, and Cantor names six: Baird, Kosmas, McMahon, Murphy, Tanner, and Teague.

But if there are in fact 32 original Democratic no votes that are still no votes, then Republicans need to find six other Democrats to vote no in order to defeat the bill. Cantor points to one original yes vote that has switched to no — Arcuri — and suggests there might be five others who could switch: Berry, Costa, Giffords, Lynch, and Space.

That leaves the much-discussed Stupak Group. The pro-life Democrat originally said he had 12 colleagues who originally voted yes but would now vote no. Stupak has lost some of those, but it is not clear how many.

Cantor suggests that in combining those two categories — the yeses who have become no plus the Stupak group — there might be another 12 votes against the bill. “If we add 12 to 32, we get 44 — which leaves Speaker Pelosi seven votes short,” Cantor concludes. Of course, if there are less than 32 original no votes who remain no votes, the margin is tighter.

Kosmas and now Murphy have announced that they’re voting yes, so assume that the rest of the six identified by Cantor will flip too. Since the momentum is with the yeses, the likelihood of further yes-to-no flips is increasingly small. That leaves 26 plus the Stupak 12 for a total of 38 — the precise number needed to kill the bill on a 215-216. But wait. Not only have the Stupakers already lost a key member in Ellsworth, which would give Pelosi a one-vote victory in this hypothetical, but the fact that Stupak and other pro-lifers have called a presser for tomorrow suggests a phony deal may be at hand. And even if Ellsworth somehow flipped back and the rest of the bloc held firm, there’s no way this thing is going down by one vote. If it’s that close, the pressure to give Obama and Pelosi a win will flip a few Blue Dogs their way. The only way realistically to kill it is to have a five- or six-vote cushion among the no’s, which is where Cantor is right now according to his own outdated numbers. If even one more vote flips, the end is near.


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Interesting!!

canopfor on March 19, 2010 at 6:47 PM

Well, whether this is true or not, the GOP had better not let up.

MeatHeadinCA on March 19, 2010 at 6:47 PM

I hope I have enough whiskey stockpiled for the weekend. Gunna be a long one.

JamesLee on March 19, 2010 at 6:48 PM

Wait until Stupak’s news conference tomorrow. I imagine he work up with a horse head in his bed this morning.

Oink on March 19, 2010 at 6:48 PM

From CNN

End run?: Democrats have floated the idea of voting on a resolution that would simply “deem” the bill passed, to allow unhappy House members to avoid a direct vote on the Senate bill. The House then would proceed to a separate vote on the more popular changes to the Senate bill.

Boehner said Thursday that Democrats have tried “every kind of scheme known to man to try to get it through the Congress without a vote.”

The minority party introduced a resolution that would force an up-or-down vote on the Senate bill and would call for at least an hour of debate before the vote.

Democrats avoided an effort to bring it to the floor with a procedural vote to move on to other business

William Amos on March 19, 2010 at 6:48 PM

Space is getting pounded with ads in his district, telling everyone to call him and demand he vote ‘yes.’ I wouldn’t be shocked if he went along with Pelosi and Co.

flyawaybird on March 19, 2010 at 6:50 PM

There are about 535 people in Washington right now all making their own individual strategies, deals, and bluffs. There’s just no way to make sense of it. I think in the end we’ll beat this thing. They’ve been saying for a year “we’ve got the votes” but they still haven’t got them. Obviously Pelosi’s trying to create the illusion of momentum and inevitability, but tomorrow’s protests could very well break the spell.

joe_doufu on March 19, 2010 at 6:50 PM

Cantor, you better go check those “Yes” Votes now. We are hearing otherwise.

upinak on March 19, 2010 at 6:50 PM

I’m starting to get as pessimistic as Allah. The Stupak thing is what worries me the most. If he was no why wait till tomorrow to say so. I think Nancy has made a fake promise to address the abortion problem. We know she won’t keep it but Stupak can say he thought there was a deal therefor it’s not his fault he voted for it.

sandee on March 19, 2010 at 6:50 PM

Heath Shuler will vote NO. Voted No last time, was undecided Maybe this time.

Enoxo on March 19, 2010 at 6:50 PM

I don’t know if this has been reported, but Ben Chandler of Kentucky is voting NO.

Is that new or old news? I can’t keep up anymore.

Knucklehead on March 19, 2010 at 6:51 PM

BTW, Shuler is a no vote…

ninjapirate on March 19, 2010 at 6:51 PM

Just keep calling, emailing, protesting, screaming … whatever it takes.

darwin on March 19, 2010 at 6:51 PM

Why are some of the DEMS still undecided? You can’t make me believe they don’t know how they’re voting. They’re either holding out for their special deal or they’re actually voting no. Really, what other scenario is there?

Oink on March 19, 2010 at 6:51 PM

Cantor doesn’t know what he’s talking about. Pelosi has the votes or she’s only a few short like 2.

deidre on March 19, 2010 at 6:52 PM

I like this kind of message better than “it’s over stop trying”

We have a day and a half to change minds. Maybe the CBO numbers will help, maybe someone will be bonked on the head by God Almighty.

All I know is we have to try until the bitter end and then if this God forbid passes – we have to try even harder to get our country back.

gophergirl on March 19, 2010 at 6:52 PM

Wait until Stupak’s news conference tomorrow. I imagine he work up with a horse head in his bed this morning.

Oink on March 19, 2010 at 6:48 PM

In all honesty, yes. We’ll know whether or not this passes tomorrow, depending on what Stupak’s conference is about. If it’s to re-affirm he has a dozen or so votes who won’t vote, then it’s over for San Fran Nan and she’ll pull the bill.

But if Stupak caves and says they made a deal and will vote for the bill, it’s over and the bill passes.

Enoxo on March 19, 2010 at 6:52 PM

Really, what other scenario is there?

Oink on March 19, 2010 at 6:51 PM

They are waiting on 2010.. A Nasa job-essy.

upinak on March 19, 2010 at 6:52 PM

Hannah Arendt would say we are witnessing the banality of evil in action (again) and it is amazing to witness Barbara Tuchman’s March of Folly play out within the once proud pro American Democrat party. Its mass delusion leading to evil and eventually to suicide.

These Marxists that have infiltrated the government and performed this coup de etat have much to answer for.


“Remember democracy never lasts long. it too soon wastes, exhausts and murders itself” – John Adams

yes they have much to answer for.

elduende on March 19, 2010 at 6:53 PM

Does anyone know, does he go by Eric or Ric? Either way, Go…whoever you want to be called. Don’t let these Eeyores surrender!
I think Boehner and Cantor and some of the others are prepared to come back with their shield or on it. I do not think the dems have that kind of intestinal fortitude nor character. They have already proven that their principles can be bought.
As much as it pains me to say it, Snowe and Collins have shown a heck of a lot more spine than a lot of these dems, and I think that those in Maine should support them for their roles in saving the country if this sewage ultimately goes down.

Chewy the Lab on March 19, 2010 at 6:53 PM

You know what word I would really like to start getting more airplay here?

IMPEACHMENT!

As in what could happen if Pelosi sees she ain’t got her votes and her and B.O. decide to invoke the Slaughter Rule.

pilamaye on March 19, 2010 at 6:53 PM

the ultimate optimist at work again. Thanks allah

ousoonerfan15 on March 19, 2010 at 6:53 PM

Flip flopping will take place all the way through the vote on Sunday, if the vote happens on Sunday… Some of these creatures will likely change their vote with pen in hand.

Keemo on March 19, 2010 at 6:54 PM

sandee on March 19, 2010 at 6:50 PM

Then his Republican challenger ads should point out Stupak is a Gullible and Clueless twunt.

No mercy on any of these Democrats.

Holger on March 19, 2010 at 6:54 PM

pilamaye on March 19, 2010 at 6:53 PM

Exactly right! The Washington Times put it out in print today.

http://washingtontimes.com/news/2010/mar/19/impeach-the-president/

Keemo on March 19, 2010 at 6:56 PM

Ugly, that story has already proven to be false. Go to Laurianne to read it.

sandee on March 19, 2010 at 6:56 PM

All I know is we have to try until the bitter end and then if this God forbid passes – we have to try even harder to get our country back.

gophergirl on March 19, 2010 at 6:52 PM

YES!!! I like your attitude!!! This is the mindset we need. I won’t give in, and let communists come read these comments and let them believe I’m defeated. No way!!!

capejasmine on March 19, 2010 at 6:57 PM

Could we have a thread where readers post their ideas about other countries to move to when the USA goes communist?

I’m ready to get the hell out before it blows up…

But I don’t know where to go.

Dorvillian on March 19, 2010 at 6:57 PM

I was starting to think Stupak may be that rarest of creatures….an honest Democrat. Silly me.

angryed on March 19, 2010 at 6:57 PM

Ugly on March 19, 2010 at 6:54 PM

Not buying that crap for one second.

Keemo on March 19, 2010 at 6:57 PM

Pelosi has the votes or she’s only a few short like 2.

deidre on March 19, 2010 at 6:52 PM

Either Pelosi has the votes or there will soon be some snorkeling stories…

MeatHeadinCA on March 19, 2010 at 6:57 PM

sandee on March 19, 2010 at 6:56 PM

Will do, thanks. I was hoping it was.

Ugly on March 19, 2010 at 6:58 PM

Could we have a thread where readers post their ideas about other countries to move to when the USA goes communist?

I’m ready to get the hell out before it blows up…

But I don’t know where to go.

Dorvillian on March 19, 2010 at 6:57 PM

I’m thinking Texas, but the wife is partial to the idea of Alaska.

joe_doufu on March 19, 2010 at 6:58 PM

Wow, things disappear fast around here.

ORconservative on March 19, 2010 at 6:58 PM

PIMF Lucianne. By the way was that post removed, or am I seeing things?

sandee on March 19, 2010 at 6:59 PM

sandee on March 19, 2010 at 6:50 PM

Yup, I’m flying the Eeyorebanner.

Still not gonna give up though. Gotta lean on Marcy Kaptur. Waxman told Stupak that they want to fund abortion. If Stupak thinks they actually will take it out, he’s a fool.

And as for the court challenges, if we have all these Deemoncrats saying that they didn’t vote for the Senate bill, then that should be ironclad evidence that it wasn’t voted on.

rbj on March 19, 2010 at 6:59 PM

I’m thinking Texas, but the wife is partial to the idea of Alaska.

joe_doufu on March 19, 2010 at 6:58 PM

don’t bother… we have Begich. He is a true orignial Obama butt kissing fool.

upinak on March 19, 2010 at 6:59 PM

Could we have a thread where readers post their ideas about other countries to move to when the USA goes communist?

I’m ready to get the hell out before it blows up…

But I don’t know where to go.

Dorvillian on March 19, 2010 at 6:57 PM

Canada: Yes it is socialist, but they were much further to the left 10-15 years ago. They saw what near communism does and have backed off, at least for the time being. Top marginal tax rate in Canada is lower than here. Plus at least it;s socialist there, but not fascist like here. People actually did want socialized medicine, it wasn’t forced upon them.

Anywhere in E. Europe: They lived with it for 70 years. They’re not going back any time soon. Although there is the risk of Russia invading again some day.

Thailand.

angryed on March 19, 2010 at 7:00 PM

Could we have a thread where readers post their ideas about other countries to move to when the USA goes communist?

I’m ready to get the hell out before it blows up…

But I don’t know where to go.

Dorvillian on March 19, 2010 at 6:57 PM

Uh … most other countries have socialist, communist or islamic governments. That’s why it’s so important for the left to destroy the US, the last flickering light of liberty and freedom.

Best not to run but stay and fight.

darwin on March 19, 2010 at 7:00 PM

Ugly on March 19, 2010 at 6:54 PM

Yeah, it’s been debunked already.

Turns out there’s no mention of a private jet for Hannity in the finances, just $60,000 in air-related fees. The jet she talks about rents for about $8,000 an hour.

And $1 of $7 is spent on salaries and benefits. That’s significantly less than even the YMCA’s branch.

The $1,000 assistance crap is only for direct grants and doesn’t include care packages and other indirect assistance. And that’s only because of DoD regs.

The organization is rated as a four-star charity. Just 4.8% goes to administrative costs, with 13.5% going to fundraising. The rest is for the program.

If I had a nickel every time Schlussel overreacted or was outright wrong.

amerpundit on March 19, 2010 at 7:00 PM

Stay on topic, please.

Allahpundit on March 19, 2010 at 7:01 PM

sandee on March 19, 2010 at 6:59 PM

Looks like it…

Ugly on March 19, 2010 at 7:01 PM

Thailand.

angryed on March 19, 2010 at 7:00 PM

Thai sticks!

darwin on March 19, 2010 at 7:01 PM

I don’t know if this has been reported, but Ben Chandler of Kentucky is voting NO.

Is that new or old news? I can’t keep up anymore.

Knucklehead on March 19, 2010 at 6:51 PM

Knucklehead:)
==========================
Friday, March 19, 2010
Ben Chandler’s a “No” on Health Care

http://red-state.blogspot.com/2010/03/ben-chandlers-no-on-health-care.html

——————————————

http://chandler.house.gov/

canopfor on March 19, 2010 at 7:02 PM

I’m ready to get the hell out before it blows up…

But I don’t know where to go.

Dorvillian on March 19, 2010 at 6:57 PM

I’m having a condo built in Costa Rica. It was supposed to be my winter getaway place but it’s starting look like it may become my permanent home.

Knucklehead on March 19, 2010 at 7:02 PM

Democrats can always be bought. Why vote Yes unless you are getting something for it? All the no votes are just holding out for a nice payoff. If I was a democrat, I’d ask obama how much does this bill mean to him. My Yes vote would cost him large. He can start my shining my shoes.

keep the change on March 19, 2010 at 7:02 PM

Cantor doesn’t know what he’s talking about. Pelosi has the votes or she’s only a few short like 2.

deidre on March 19, 2010 at 6:52 PM

Yeah. What does the House Minority Whip, whose primary job is counting votes, know anyways?

KSgop on March 19, 2010 at 7:02 PM

Stay on topic, please.

Allahpundit on March 19, 2010 at 7:01 PM

“OT:” posts are verboten now? OK

Ugly on March 19, 2010 at 7:02 PM

Stay on topic, please.

Allahpundit on March 19, 2010 at 7:01 PM

sorry.

elduende on March 19, 2010 at 7:03 PM

Stay on topic, please.

Allahpundit on March 19, 2010 at 7:01 PM

Allah can you pull a definative who is going to say Yes Dem wise? Maybe do a poll as well?

That would help quite a few of us on the who is saying what (yes/no) on the issue at hand.

upinak on March 19, 2010 at 7:03 PM

Eh.

AP has a better feel for this then minority whip….Mr.Cantor is trying to tell folks that this is not over, that Pelosi and obama are pushing this aura if inevitability, so everyone gives up, goes home and allows her to work her magic.

runner on March 19, 2010 at 7:03 PM

The only way realistically to kill it is to have a five- or six-vote cushion among the no’s

A multi-million dollar march on D.C. with them shouting in unison “Can you hear us now! NO!”

When a large percentage of the American people get serious, there will be change. Until then, the trend will continue.

JDPerren on March 19, 2010 at 7:04 PM

Exactly right! The Washington Times put it out in print today.

http://washingtontimes.com/news/2010/mar/19/impeach-the-president/

Keemo on March 19, 2010 at 6:56 PM

Keemo: What took them so long!!:)

canopfor on March 19, 2010 at 7:04 PM

Oops… That should read “a multi-million person march…”

JDPerren on March 19, 2010 at 7:05 PM

Cao (R) of Louisiana isn’t reconsidering his No…Cantor stated that over an hour ago.

Dr Evil on March 19, 2010 at 7:05 PM

I’m starting to get as pessimistic as Allah. The Stupak thing is what worries me the most. If he was no why wait till tomorrow to say so. I think Nancy has made a fake promise to address the abortion problem. We know she won’t keep it but Stupak can say he thought there was a deal therefor it’s not his fault he voted for it.

The thing is, Pelosi has NO authority to make promises about what might happen in the Senate. Reid has been MIA, which is odd for someone who’s about to spearhead the reconciliation process. He’s been oddly quiet. If there is some kind of deal about what should be in a Senate bill, shouldn’t Reid be by Pelosi’s side non-stop during this process? This doesn’t make sense, unless there really is no plan on doing anything for the Stupak members, and the strategy now is just to whisper sweet nothings in their ears and dump them after the vote.

joejm65 on March 19, 2010 at 7:05 PM

Mr.Cantor is trying to tell folks that this is not over, that Pelosi and obama are pushing this aura if inevitability

Yeah, he’s saying this just so that people will keep calling. Which is always a good idea, but let’s be realistic.

Allahpundit on March 19, 2010 at 7:06 PM

the actual CBO scoring should flip them right back over to no

Dr Evil on March 19, 2010 at 7:07 PM

The Sea Hag is lying to most of her caucus to get others to vote yes to avoid being left out if it passes. Cantor is parrying that attempt with this insistence that Sea Hag isn’t even close to having enough votes.

csdeven on March 19, 2010 at 7:07 PM

Immense pressure and inducements must be being applied behind closed doors. Stupak has said his life has been hell, and they’re probably promising him the moon if he flips.

My rep is an in-the-tank Crat, so nothing to do there. All that’s left here, outside of a few tweets, is to pray. It’s in the Lord’s hands. The nation as a whole certainly deserves the destructive consequences of its electoral choices, but God always favors mercy, if He can only find a remnant that will intercede. And should we lose this battle, He can and will even use that to bring about His will.

paul1149 on March 19, 2010 at 7:07 PM

Yeah, he’s saying this just so that people will keep calling. Which is always a good idea, but let’s be realistic.

Allahpundit on March 19, 2010 at 7:06 PM

What’s realistic is we have to fight like hell between now and Sunday. What’s realistic is that the Democrats have been saying for a year that they have the votes, and they haven’t. What’s realistic is that Pelosi has never ever cared about any 72-hour rule; they’d have already voted, if they could.

joe_doufu on March 19, 2010 at 7:09 PM

Just start drinking now.

sdillard on March 19, 2010 at 7:10 PM

I hope he is right.

And the Anchoress lets lose on Pelosi.

Mr. Joe on March 19, 2010 at 7:11 PM

Does predicting defeat improve the sensation if it comes?

I think Cantor is closer to the situation. So I’m not pitching his numbers. Incidentally, however even if he is just doing it for show, it’s the same as claiming each no is a domino.

I’m willing to let it all play out, though I will suspect it will pass. There are a lot of goodies POTUS can pass around.

Spirit of 1776 on March 19, 2010 at 7:12 PM

Best not to run but stay and fight.

darwin on March 19, 2010 at 7:00 PM

DAMN RIGHT! It is the attitude of giving up that has turned our schools over to the progressive traitors. When Beck told his relative not to reup in the military, I about went ballistic! No, no, no!!!!! We cannot abandon the military to these traitors! We stay here and slowly destroy every despicable Progressive. One at a time if need be!

csdeven on March 19, 2010 at 7:12 PM

Yeah, he’s saying this just so that people will keep calling. Which is always a good idea, but let’s be realistic.

Allahpundit on March 19, 2010 at 7:06 PM

Awww Allah. We can’t get bogged down in defeatism. There’s always a ray of hope, and even if it passes….the fight has to continue. If we roll, ….well we can’t. I can’t.

capejasmine on March 19, 2010 at 7:12 PM

Sorry, but, I trust the guy who is actually a House member in the leadership trenches over the pessimism of a blogger reading and posting news articles all day.

KSgop on March 19, 2010 at 7:13 PM

Stay on topic, please.

Allahpundit on March 19, 2010 at 7:01 PM

Ann, do you see this?

lovingmyUSA on March 19, 2010 at 7:15 PM

Just start drinking now.

sdillard on March 19, 2010 at 7:10 PM

Start now? Ok, then what I have been doing was Spring Training.

And I’m not going to run away (can’t afford to anyhow). This is my country and my rights. I’ll be damned if I let them take it all away.

rbj on March 19, 2010 at 7:17 PM

Down to 5 votes ?

The fate of health care hangs with a few wavering Democrats and one of them is freshman Democrat Rep. Gerry Connolly of Northern Virginia.

He voted for health reform in November — but insists he’s undecided about the current package

He is one of perhaps just five Democrats now who can decide the fate of package that could shape the future of the Obama Presidency. “My view, maybe because I’m new at this or because I’m naive is you don’t buy something sight unseen.”

Outside of his office– a handful of protestors pushing him to vote no — but suspicious that he’s already made up his mind to vote yes. “I say, Gerry, you’re a one termer, I believe,” says Ron Kirby of Alexandria.

Connolly skipped the President’s final health care rally in the congressman’s own district. Connolly insists it was just a scheduling conflict.

William Amos on March 19, 2010 at 7:17 PM

Of course on the other hand, some of the undecided might be saying yes just to get san fran nan to shut up

ConservativePartyNow on March 19, 2010 at 7:17 PM

Hey, just remember as we become a state run economy and a 3rd world country that all of this could have been avoided.

Then again, the people telling you that there is no difference in political parties, ie Maklin and Beck wouldn’t have made as much money.

Boxy_Brown on March 19, 2010 at 7:19 PM

Of course on the other hand, some of the undecided might be saying yes just to get san fran nan to shut up

ConservativePartyNow on March 19, 2010 at 7:17 PM

That should be the strategy of the anti-Senate bill Dems. Promise to vote for it, then double cross the fascist-democratic leadership. Then vote with the Republicans and elect a new Speaker.

rbj on March 19, 2010 at 7:19 PM

I’m having a condo built in Costa Rica. It was supposed to be my winter getaway place but it’s starting look like it may become my permanent home.

Knucklehead on March 19, 2010 at 7:02 PM

Nice! Same here. And they just elected a more conservative pres after the last one tried to change the constitution to stay in office.
Other than that, I hear Switzerland is nice, you are REQUIRED to own guns. Also, Chile will have lots of rebuilding to do, good climate, relatively free, wine grapes, surf, new conservative president.

On Topic:
I’ll never give up, but the local radio just said the ‘Louse has 216. Bottoms up!

NTWR on March 19, 2010 at 7:21 PM

Why are some of the DEMS still undecided? You can’t make me believe they don’t know how they’re voting. They’re either holding out for their special deal or they’re actually voting no. Really, what other scenario is there?

Oink on March 19, 2010 at 6:51 PM

If I were a Dem legislator (perish the thought!), I would be “officially undecided” until the last possible moment so as not to invite horse heads in my bed, etc.

Mary in LA on March 19, 2010 at 7:22 PM

Of course on the other hand, some of the undecided might be saying yes just to get san fran nan to shut up

ConservativePartyNow on March 19, 2010 at 7:17 PM

I think that’s a real possibility. Did you hear her voice? I caught a few videos of Nancy speaking…on the news. She’s hoarse. She’s been doing a lot of yelling, I’m sure. lol

Is it wrong for me to want laryngitis for her over the weekend? 0 :)

capejasmine on March 19, 2010 at 7:22 PM

If this passes Democrats have already promised that it won;t be an end to their meddling in health care- but the beginning. It will transform forever the relationship between government and citizen in the United States. Furthermore it will only hasten the looming total economic collapse of the nation.

If you care about America, pick up the phone and call your Reps- even if they are firm yes votes. Make your voice heard. If not now, then when? After the vote is taken and its took late?

Jay Mac on March 19, 2010 at 7:25 PM

In my drive to New Orleans this morning Cao’s public no was all over the local radio there.

No. 1 Liberal disguised as a RINO, Garland Robinette, on WWL radio was speaking out against the bill in a big way. Main reason was not enough doctors and the promise of an avalanche of retiring MD’s. All of his guests, even from Massachusetts were talking about how bad public/universal HC is up there and how people are abandoning private insurers because they think that it is for free.

Kermit on March 19, 2010 at 7:27 PM

If this passes Democrats have already promised that it won;t be an end to their meddling in health care- but the beginning. It will transform forever the relationship between government and citizen in the United States. Furthermore it will only hasten the looming total economic collapse of the nation.

If you care about America, pick up the phone and call your Reps- even if they are firm yes votes. Make your voice heard. If not now, then when? After the vote is taken and its took late?

Jay Mac on March 19, 2010 at 7:25 PM

No need to call mine, I know him. He is and has always been a solid NO. He is an MD and GOP member.

Kermit on March 19, 2010 at 7:29 PM

Where’s your fu*king outrage, Cantor? I’m so sick of these bloodless useless bean-counters in the GOP. I want some Paddy Chayesky outrage, from someone. If not now, when? What will be left after this?

rrpjr on March 19, 2010 at 7:31 PM

Is it wrong for me to want laryngitis for her over the weekend? 0 :)

capejasmine on March 19, 2010 at 7:22 PM

If it’s wrong, I don’t wanna be right. :-)

Mary in LA on March 19, 2010 at 7:34 PM

2 votes up, 5 votes down, 1 vote up, 7 votes down — fact is that nobody has that number.

Cantor has a first hand view of House whip efforts so he’s probably right that that they are shy of the number and are doing a bit of bluffing. Paul Ryan earlier called the vote count situation “very, very fluid.”

Just the fact that, even within the last few hours, we’ve seen votes flip from confirmed one way to confirmed the other way gives evidence that both of them have a point.

I am worried, no doubt, but I still think this bill is killable.

Edouard on March 19, 2010 at 7:37 PM

Is it wrong for me to want laryngitis for her over the weekend? 0 :)

capejasmine on March 19, 2010 at 7:22 PM

I have this horrible vision of her sitting on an immense throne. Meanwhile the Mouth of Sauron lays out the terms of surrender while throwing Frodo’s Mithril coat at Gandalf.

Lily on March 19, 2010 at 7:37 PM

Read on Bloomberg that the Medicare reimbursement disparity may cause some problems. That is why Defazio is a no until they get it fixed. Problem is it may not survive point of order in the Senate. Kaptur is also on the fence about this in addition to the the abortion language.

txmomof6 on March 19, 2010 at 7:46 PM

If it happens SUN, it’s gotta happen in the AM.

There’s no way the Donks are clueless enough to cause CBS to break into NCAA hoops for this.

Bruno Strozek on March 19, 2010 at 7:47 PM

You know what? We will not really know until the vote actually happens. No matter what anyone says, only the vote matters.

And even then it is not really over. The next phase begins. It is years before the benefits kick in, that is some time to screw with them.

Terrye on March 19, 2010 at 7:50 PM

I am sure she has the votes. This nightmare is just beginning though and the fight must continue.

evie on March 19, 2010 at 7:54 PM

The only thing getting me through this miserable week and miserable weekend is the blind faith that regardless of the outcome on Sunday, SO MANY people are going to be SO PISSED OFF at the entire process (that Obama derisively dismisses as a non-issue), that they are going to be motivated to come out enmasse in November and will be voting against the Dems. This will cause support for the down ticket offices at the state and local level. This is where the war has to be won.

First of all, think of the census. We have redistricting going into the 2012 election. I read somewhere that TX is picking up 2 more seats, and several red states are picking up seats. NY and PA and losing 2 seats, and other blue states in the midwest cluster are losing 1 seat each. CA might possibly even lose a seat. The ballerina won’t be able to cheat and create more illegals to count out of thin air in CA to make up for the net out migration that has occurred amoung the taxpayers who are fleeing from CA in droves.

So, in 2010, the down ticket is helped. We have tons of state legislatures that might have more red seats occupied than there are currently. We might have more Secretary of States who will be vigilant against ACORN or whatever they will morph themselves into by 2012, so we might have less ballot stuffing and cheating. We will have more friendly redistricting that might cause more purple and red among the congressional districts.

If we have to take a large bullet now, there is blowback that favors conservatives. Then, once we get the electoral votes shifted from more blue states, that will make 2012 a little bit easier. And we will have the ability to take back what we might lose this weekend. Between the AG lawsuits, Levin’s lawsuit, etc., this thing could be tied up in court until 2012. Then after that, we can get it reversed. Meanwhile, we might have some tax increases that we will have paid, but we do have time to get this unraveled before we lose our country forever.

I just have to have faith that we can see a silver lining here or I won’t be able to bear what happens on Sunday.

karenhasfreedom on March 19, 2010 at 7:59 PM

Allahpundit, I’m ticked at your on-going pessimism. Let’s wait til it’s all over to cry in our beer. In the meantime, look on the bright side and hope and pray. Take some cues from Rush. What we are witnessing here is much more than a horse race. There are actually 200+ reps who are not only going along with “demon-passed” and are happy to dump this monstrosity on their parents and their kids (who are not fixed for a lifetime), but are in the process of walking off the plank with eyes wide open! Unbelievable. I just glad I don’t work for Aetna.

rickreyn on March 19, 2010 at 8:06 PM

I know Joe Cao – and he’s a FIRM “NO” this time around. Joe Cao is a highly principled American of Vietnamese descent. His father was a South Vietnamese Army Officer. Joe only voted “Yes” last time because he genuinely believed the bill would improve life for his constituents – who are some of the poorest in Louisiana. But he would not have voted for the first bill if he hadn’t been assured that Abortion wouldn’t be federally funded.

He’s a firm “no” now – guaranteed. Aside from the fact that this bill federally funds abortion – Joe Cao has lost 40 percent of his fundraising capability since he voted “yes” the last time – and he didn’t pick up any support from the Democrats in his district for voting “yes”.

He’s in the GOP tent firm now – trust me on that one.

HondaV65 on March 19, 2010 at 8:08 PM

This will cause support for the down ticket offices at the state and local level. This is where the war has to be won.

karenhasfreedom on March 19, 2010 at 7:59 PM

A very good and well thought out post, KHF. Thank you.

Here in Minny, savvy DFL insiders are starting to sweat the potential loss of the House. a body where they presently hold a large majority. And they are worried that the GOP will keep the Gov’s office as well.

Bruno Strozek on March 19, 2010 at 8:10 PM

This is all a beating – but we CANNOT GIVE UP! What if they are trying to create momentum? You know they do that…if they are we MIGHT be able to stop them. I KNOW this is hard, I know our foreheads are bruised from beating them on the wall, but the dims are idiots and jackas…oops…well – they ARE donkeys.

We can relax when it’s over, and it ain’t over til it’s over!!!!!

Yellowdog12 on March 19, 2010 at 8:13 PM

Oh woe is us! The end is near indeed.

Archimedes on March 19, 2010 at 8:15 PM

Oh woe is us! The end is near indeed.

Archimedes on March 19, 2010 at 8:15 PM

Did you make any phone calls? Just asking…

Mary in LA on March 19, 2010 at 8:18 PM

Not in an unkind way… not after my clock was most righteously and deservedly cleaned by speed911… I’m just asking.

Mary in LA on March 19, 2010 at 8:19 PM

Since the momentum is with the yeses, the likelihood of further yes-to-no flips is increasingly small

Calls to the House numbered close to 100,000 an hour, creating a bottleneck in a phone system only meant to handle 50,000 calls an hour.

For crisssakes Allah, do you think all these calls to the House are “yes momemtums???????

Rovin on March 19, 2010 at 8:24 PM

Ventura emphasized that the system for staffers’ BlackBerrys and smartphones was running smoothly.

I wonder where those BB numbers are listed? Wonder if they have SMS text messaging enabled? Hmm. Anyone know anyone who would know?

Mary in LA on March 19, 2010 at 8:27 PM

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