Cantor: No, really, we think Pelosi’s seven votes short

posted at 6:45 pm on March 19, 2010 by Allahpundit

I’m unpersuaded. He’s starting with 178 Republican no’s — Cao, he insists, he is a “firm no,” but all that really means is that Cao won’t flip unless passage is assured. They need 38 Democrats to kill it and, luckily enough, 37 Democrats voted no in November. We pick up the story there:

Of those [37], five have publicly switched their votes to yes. That leaves 32. In addition, some others might change their votes to yes as well, and Cantor names six: Baird, Kosmas, McMahon, Murphy, Tanner, and Teague.

But if there are in fact 32 original Democratic no votes that are still no votes, then Republicans need to find six other Democrats to vote no in order to defeat the bill. Cantor points to one original yes vote that has switched to no — Arcuri — and suggests there might be five others who could switch: Berry, Costa, Giffords, Lynch, and Space.

That leaves the much-discussed Stupak Group. The pro-life Democrat originally said he had 12 colleagues who originally voted yes but would now vote no. Stupak has lost some of those, but it is not clear how many.

Cantor suggests that in combining those two categories — the yeses who have become no plus the Stupak group — there might be another 12 votes against the bill. “If we add 12 to 32, we get 44 — which leaves Speaker Pelosi seven votes short,” Cantor concludes. Of course, if there are less than 32 original no votes who remain no votes, the margin is tighter.

Kosmas and now Murphy have announced that they’re voting yes, so assume that the rest of the six identified by Cantor will flip too. Since the momentum is with the yeses, the likelihood of further yes-to-no flips is increasingly small. That leaves 26 plus the Stupak 12 for a total of 38 — the precise number needed to kill the bill on a 215-216. But wait. Not only have the Stupakers already lost a key member in Ellsworth, which would give Pelosi a one-vote victory in this hypothetical, but the fact that Stupak and other pro-lifers have called a presser for tomorrow suggests a phony deal may be at hand. And even if Ellsworth somehow flipped back and the rest of the bloc held firm, there’s no way this thing is going down by one vote. If it’s that close, the pressure to give Obama and Pelosi a win will flip a few Blue Dogs their way. The only way realistically to kill it is to have a five- or six-vote cushion among the no’s, which is where Cantor is right now according to his own outdated numbers. If even one more vote flips, the end is near.

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do you think all these calls to the House are “yes momemtums???????

Rovin on March 19, 2010 at 8:24 PM

Nope The Left Hates this Bill Too – Check Fire Dog Lake – The New York Times.

This isn’t going to end well.

Dr Evil on March 19, 2010 at 8:27 PM

Come on folks! Everybody is lying! Pubs, Dems, Press, Pundits, Scribes, Talking Heads.

Nobody knows anything but drama.

booter on March 19, 2010 at 8:35 PM

Folks, this is not over. As someone already said, they are trying to create the image of momentum. They are still 5-7 votes short. Your tenacious work is having an impact! Continue to, as the Captain of the USS John F. Kennedy aircraft carrier said to his officers and crew, as they were just pulling into range of Afghanistan in the aftermath of September 11th, “Now they will feel the power of the Kennedy; we will strike, and strike hard!” So, continue to “Strike” and “Strike Hard!” We are Americans; and like our great soldiers, sailors, airmen, coast guardsmen, and United States Marines, our colors do not run! We do not give up the fight! So Strike, and strike again! In battle we are always on the offensive. They are visting war on our Constitution. It is war they shall have. Strike hard!

SheetAnchor on March 19, 2010 at 8:37 PM

I’m unpersuaded.

Has Allahpundit ever been persuaded by optimistic news?

Sharke on March 19, 2010 at 8:44 PM

It’s Friday night…let’s think crazy thoughts.

What if 10-15 Dems are planning to turn traitor on their own party? What if they see the madness and have decided no more? Could they lie to Nan, tell her they’re a yes, and pull the lever for no?

Could they be strategizing with the Republicans?

What if they then switched their party affiliations to Independent or Republican on Monday, after they sunk the bill?

All it takes is a few. Yes, they’d be vilified by powerful people…but they’d be American sweethearts and it would be a coup for the history books.

Yep, it’s a crazy thought. Then again, Scott Brown won in Massachusetts. These are crazy times.

Grace_is_sufficient on March 19, 2010 at 8:53 PM

Grace_is_sufficient on March 19, 2010 at 8:53 PM

If this happens, I’ll donate to the save the unicorn fund.

Rovin on March 19, 2010 at 9:28 PM

Grace_is_sufficient on March 19, 2010 at 8:53 PM

I’m with you Grace.

And I am praying very hard…let’s not forget to storm the Heavens while we’re melting the phone lines!

WaltzingMtilda on March 19, 2010 at 9:37 PM

They don’t have the votes…

Seven Percent Solution on March 19, 2010 at 9:58 PM

Hoping and praying that this is our Midway – not our Corregidor.

J.J. Sefton on March 19, 2010 at 11:43 PM

“The end is near…” AP, get off it. This is when I start to see media blood money in your eyes, earning a living by inducing so much desperation and hopelessness that your readers are tuning in to read you at every available moment. It is not the “end.” Good Lord.

leftnomore on March 20, 2010 at 4:03 AM

What if you were made the deal– let this fail, and pick up 20 Congressional seats in November. Let it pass, and win the house and 10 Senate seats? Don’t arbitrarily assume this is going to be chiseled in stone for the rest of our lives. If enough people want to get rid of it, they’ll find the means. If there aren’t, we’ve lost the debate already anyway.

leftnomore on March 20, 2010 at 4:07 AM