PPP: People disgusted with both parties favor the GOP by 20 points

posted at 10:55 am on March 18, 2010 by Ed Morrissey

Yesterday, Rasmussen reported that the GOP had moved out to a double-digit lead in generic Congressional balloting.  At the same time, Public Policy Polling reported a more modest three-point lead for Republicans over Democrats in its survey of registered voters, as opposed to Rasmussen’s survey of likely voters.  PPP found an interesting trend that may have something to do with turnout — and may indicate that PPP still is underestimating Republican chances in the midterms:

Voters across the country are continuing to lean toward the GOP for 2012, with Republicans holding a 46-43 lead on our latest look at the generic Congressional ballot.

There are two major trends driving their lead that have shown up in our polling for a while now. They have a 44-26 lead with independents, and their party is more unified with 87% of Republicans planning to vote Republican compared to 80% of Democrats who plan to stick with their party.

Congressional Republicans are actually less popular than Congressional Democrats with 60% of voters disapproving of them compared to 56% for the Democrats. But mirroring something we’ve found repeatedly in our polling voters with a negative opinion of both parties plan to support the GOP by a 49-28 margin this year, figuring that a shift in control brings at least the possibility of change.

Call it the referendum effect.  It’s a measure of displeasure with the party that controls all of the electoral levers of power in Washington.  Even though Republicans haven’t built as much of a positive following as the party would like, there is only one way to register discontent this November — and that’s either to vote against the Democrat or to stay home.  While 80% of Democrats plan to stick with their party, a number of them may not bother to show up at all for the midterms.

There are a few other interesting points in the raw data.  First, the sample is +10 for Democrats, with a D/R/I split of 43/33/24.  That both overcounts Democrats and undercounts independents.  Gallup puts the partisan gap at half of that in December, and Rasmussen followed with a March poll that puts the difference at 3 points, 35/32, with 33% independent/unaffiliated.  Even with that artificial advantage, Republicans still outpace Democrats, and Barack Obama can’t get above a 47/48 underwater approval rating.  Neither can his ObamaCare proposal, which is also underwater in this poll at 45/49.

In breaking down those approval numbers, it appears that a small margin of buyer’s remorse has set in with Obama voters.  Ten percent of Obama voters in 2008 now disapprove of his job performance, and 11% oppose ObamaCare.  Twenty-four percent of Obama voters disapprove of Congressional Democrats, although only 12% of them think Democrats in Congress are too liberal (26% say too conservative).  Thirty-one percent of McCain voters think Republicans on the Hill are too liberal, while only 20% think they’re too conservative.

Even in polls skewed for them, Democrats are stumbling.  Perhaps some of them should consider that when deciding whether to flip their vote on ObamaCare to pull Nancy Pelosi’s chestnuts out of the fire.


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Yes. I a

m only a HS science teacher/geologist by day for 180 days/yr.
By night & the summer, I am my hubby’s chore hog.
It is the most amazing life. :)

Badger40 on March 18, 2010 at 12:58 PM

Thanks for the personal tidbit. A geologist, eh? (How cool is that!)

I rode a horse once, btw: :)

My grandparents were from Nebraska. They had friends who were strictly farmers. And I rode horses in Arkansas.

However, even as a small-town girl, I definitely am not a real country girl. That was “experience” in life, not a lifestyle.

AnninCA on March 18, 2010 at 1:02 PM

coming from So. Cal
AnninCA on March 18, 2010 at 12:56 PM

I like it there, but only to visit. I lived in Carmichael as a kid.
Have family in Vallejo.

Badger40 on March 18, 2010 at 1:02 PM

P.S. I miss my horses…..*sigh*

sicoit on March 18, 2010 at 1:02 PM

That was “experience” in life, not a lifestyle.
AnninCA on March 18, 2010 at 1:02 PM

LOL! Well different strokes for different folks.
But there is no way I would ever live in a city again.
Town is bad enough.
It is great when you can walk out naked in your ‘yard’ (really a pasture, & no one knows.
Except maybe Google Earth!

Badger40 on March 18, 2010 at 1:03 PM

P.S. I miss my horses…..*sigh*

sicoit on March 18, 2010 at 1:02 PM

LOL! Well let me give a few!

Badger40 on March 18, 2010 at 1:04 PM

P.S. I miss my horses…..*sigh*

sicoit on March 18, 2010 at 1:02 PM

Me, too. I am missing the horses more than the Mexican food.

TXMomof3 on March 18, 2010 at 1:04 PM

Hey, find me on the Allah Pundit fan site on Facebook. http://www.facebook.com/?page=1&sk=messages&tid=373155094423#!/group.php?gid=73590404687

TXMomof3 on March 18, 2010 at 12:51 PM

The link takes me to my Facebook page & says there’s an error & to try back.
Can I just go to the fan site? What do I search for?

Badger40 on March 18, 2010 at 1:05 PM

AnninCA on March 18, 2010 at 12:56 PM
I like it there, but only to visit. I lived in Carmichael as a kid.
Have family in Vallejo.

Badger40 on March 18, 2010 at 1:02 PM

I lived not far from San Fernando/Pacoima, which is the heart of the Hispanic population.

Every Christmas, I bought tamales from one of their local bakeries, which supplied tamales to half of So. Cal.

They were to die for.

I don’t find that yet in Texas. I’m sure it’s around. Mostly what I’m finding is truly American mexican food, which isn’t the same.

AnninCA on March 18, 2010 at 1:06 PM

P.S. I miss my horses…..*sigh*

sicoit on March 18, 2010 at 1:02 PM
LOL! Well let me give a few!

Badger40 on March 18, 2010 at 1:04 PM

Ya know, we have about 5 acres and I’ve been talking to my son about getting the back acreage cleared, fenced, and ready to take in some that are abused, neglected, etc. I would love that!! My grandchildren would too. ;-)

sicoit on March 18, 2010 at 1:07 PM

The link takes me to my Facebook page & says there’s an error & to try back.
Can I just go to the fan site? What do I search for?

Badger40 on March 18, 2010 at 1:05 PM

On the search line, just type in Allah Pundit. That should take you to the group. You will be able to find me on that page.

TXMomof3 on March 18, 2010 at 1:07 PM

TXMomof3 on March 18, 2010 at 1:07 PM

Just friended you.
If you’re bored, you can check out the ranch pics i got.
I have to go feed the ladies now.
TTYL!

Badger40 on March 18, 2010 at 1:15 PM

tamales from one of their local bakeries, which supplied tamales to half of So. Cal.

They were to die for.

I don’t find that yet in Texas. I’m sure it’s around. Mostly what I’m finding is truly American mexican food, which isn’t the same.

AnninCA on March 18, 2010 at 1:06 PM

Best friend in Tyler in HS was a Mexican-parents were legal immigrants- & I was always eating over there.
I kn0ow San Antonio when I lived there in the early 90s had some great little mom & pop places for tamales.
I can’t make a good tamale to save my life-only tortillas.
You are making me hungry!

Badger40 on March 18, 2010 at 1:17 PM

sicoit on March 18, 2010 at 1:07 PM

There are tons of free horses, to be sure, ever since the last horse slaughter place closed.
And it’s a shame bcs there’s nothing wrong with horse slaughter.
You just wouldn’t believe just how many horses are abandoned etc bcs of that ban.
ND & MT are looking to build their own horse slaughter plant.
Something’s gotta be done.

Badger40 on March 18, 2010 at 1:18 PM

It is great when you can walk out naked in your ‘yard’

Badger40 on March 18, 2010 at 1:03 PM

Even in the winter?

MarkTheGreat on March 18, 2010 at 1:19 PM

So unless you want to put Democrats in office, why make any effort towards a third party?

NoDonkey on March 18, 2010 at 11:06 AM

The difference between a Democrat, and a Republican who thinks he’s a Democrat is … ?

MarkTheGreat on March 18, 2010 at 1:23 PM

Words cannot accurately describe the joy that I will have when this filthy witch is removed from the Speaker’s chair. They will need to disinfect it thoroughly.

Jaibones on March 18, 2010 at 11:10 AM

It will have to be burned, and a new one built.

MarkTheGreat on March 18, 2010 at 1:24 PM

If anything this just shows that contrary to Beck’s ramblings, the Tea Party movement is extremely partisan.

crr6 on March 18, 2010 at 11:32 AM

Opposing BarryCare makes one a partisan?

I love the way liberal lawyers actually think they can do basic logic.

MarkTheGreat on March 18, 2010 at 1:27 PM

It is great when you can walk out naked in your ‘yard’

Badger40 on March 18, 2010 at 1:03 PM

I miss that, myself.

TXMomof3 on March 18, 2010 at 1:30 PM

So liberals like paying exorbitant amounts of the earned income to the govt in taxes?

Badger40 on March 18, 2010 at 11:43 AM

You have to have earned income before you can worry about the govt taking it.

MarkTheGreat on March 18, 2010 at 1:31 PM

LOL!

Sand hills area?
We got friends living around Whitman that run a ranch for the Mormon church there. He’s a foreman there.
I like that country.

Badger40 on March 18, 2010 at 12:41 PM

We live on the eastern side of the state in the rolling hills. The western side is like the part of the country I am from and was use to. (:

yoda on March 18, 2010 at 2:43 PM

I think Americans will rebel, by not abiding by the mandate.

Let the IRS try to round up everyone.

AnninCA on March 18, 2010 at 12:59 PM

They don’t have to. They have to round up 10, send them to jail for 5 years and you’ll have everyone falling in line pretty fast.

angryed on March 18, 2010 at 3:05 PM

The difference between a Democrat, and a Republican who thinks he’s a Democrat is … ?

MarkTheGreat on March 18, 2010 at 1:23 PM

…that the Republican will caucus with other Republicans, who can show him/her the error of their ways, whereas the Democrat will caucus with other Democrats, and will persist in error because the way of truth is never mentioned.

unclesmrgol on March 18, 2010 at 3:29 PM

Even in the winter?

MarkTheGreat on March 18, 2010 at 1:19 PM

We North Dakotans are a hardy bunch.

Badger40 on March 18, 2010 at 3:38 PM

The “Obama Hangover” is getting worse. We may see the “Obama Effect” take on a whole, new meaning.

FedFarmer on March 18, 2010 at 4:30 PM

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