Rasmussen: GOP opens a ten-point lead on generic Congressional ballot

posted at 11:36 am on March 17, 2010 by Ed Morrissey

It wasn’t that long ago that being within 5 points of Democrats on the Congressional ballot was considered a competitive position for Republicans. Now, Rasmussen reports that the GOP has opened a double-digit lead over the majority party for the first time in the pollster’s weekly survey.  If anything, the internals are even more discouraging for Democrats than the top line:

Republican candidates have now stretched their lead over Democrats to 10 points in the Generic Congressional Ballot, their biggest lead ever in nearly three years of weekly tracking. The GOP has been leading on the ballot for months.

The new Rasmussen Reports national telephone survey finds that 45% would vote for their district’s Republican congressional candidate while 35% would opt for his or her Democratic opponent. Voter support for GOP congressional candidates increased slightly from last week, while support for Democrats fell two points.

Republicans started 2010 ahead by nine points, while support for Democrats fell to its lowest level over the same period. Towards the end of 2009, GOP candidates enjoyed a more modest lead over Democrats, with the gap between the two down to four points in early December. Since the beginning of the year, however, the Republican lead hasn’t dipped below seven points.

It isn’t all good news for the GOP.  Rasmussen also surveys the impact of a generic Tea Party candidate on the Congressional ballot, and it gives Democrats a 34/27 edge over Republicans, with 21% going to the Tea Party.  That should be a lesson to Republicans on the need to embrace the Tea Party rather than run from it.  Note that Democrats barely lose any votes at all in that split.

Otherwise, though, the news is all bad for Democrats.  The internals show that Democrats have lost women in this election cycle, with a 43/38 split in favor of the GOP.  Every age group except the youngest voters have pluralities or majorities supporting Republicans, and the 18-29YO voters split 44/40 for Democrats, almost within the margin of error.  Independents go almost 2-1 for Republicans, 41/22, a remarkably poor showing for the majority party among unaffiliated voters.

How did the Democrats stumble so badly?  The same survey shows that 43% of respondents pick economic issues as their most important issue, with another 16% choosing fiscal issues.  Instead of responding to that obvious trend, the Democrats have spent almost a year on health-care reform, apparently pandering to the 17% that chose “domestic issues” as their highest priority.  Two-thirds of the country believe that the country is on the wrong track, a problem that lands directly on the Democrats’ shoulders as they control all of the elective branches of government.  That two-thirds split appears in almost all demographic categories; even amomg Democrats, 44% believe that the nation is headed in the wrong direction, while only 48% think otherwise.

Barack Obama’s approval ratings don’t help.  The weekly survey shows a 45/54 upside down approval rating, with only 26% strongly approving of his performance.  Majorities of both men (58%) and women (51%) disapprove, as do most age and income demos.  Independents actually disapprove at a higher rate than the overall population, at 39/60.  Going into the midterm cycle, those numbers look nothing short of catastrophic for Democrats.

Update: Yid with Lid has the historical results charted:

Be sure to read the rest of his post.


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Comment pages: 1 2

If they’ve lost AnninCA…

forest on March 17, 2010 at 12:43 PM

forest: Yup:)

canopfor on March 17, 2010 at 12:49 PM

Have you ever seen this level of anger in the populace?

a capella on March 17, 2010 at 12:43 PM

Only in local levels in response to unethical legislation but nothing on this kind of illegal power grab.

I’m afraid the local responses after the legislation passed were not promising…

Skywise on March 17, 2010 at 12:50 PM

I don’t want any of the doom and gloomers in my ‘fox hole’ when the ‘revolution’ comes. Doom and gloomers are beaten before the battle begins.

JimP on March 17, 2010 at 12:27 PM

+1,000

..I got your back, Jim. Got a couple of M-1s, and about eight cases of Lake City M-2 Ball. Let’s rock’n'roll!

VoyskaPVO on March 17, 2010 at 12:51 PM

I don’t even know the last time either party had 2/3 in either the senate or house…probably in the 30s.

angryed on March 17, 2010 at 12:17 PM

Have you ever seen this level of anger in the populace?

a capella on March 17, 2010 at 12:43 PM

No. But there are so many gerrymandered seats, that I don’t think it’s possible to flip 100 seats. There are enough Dems seats where a Republican will never win to ensure this doesn’t happen. And vice versa. As bad as 2006 and 2008 were, the GOP still has 175 seats. I see that as a floor for both parties.

Given the funny business that is sure to happen with the census this year, things may well change in 2012 and beyond. The floor for the GOP may well fall to 100 as cities magically gain millions of new residents while rural Alabama loses 20% of its population. But for 2010, there ain’t no way the GOP is getting 2/3 in the house.

angryed on March 17, 2010 at 12:52 PM

Let’s go for 20!!

Khun Joe on March 17, 2010 at 12:56 PM

If the party crashes and burns, it doesn’t matter much to Obama. He was never one of them anyway.

http://www.americanthinker.com/2010/03/obama_is_a_stranger_in_a_stran.html

Head of nail meets hammer.

Bruno Strozek on March 17, 2010 at 12:58 PM

I honestly don’t think they care. I truly believe they will get this through one way or another.

ldbgcoleman on March 17, 2010 at 1:10 PM

When it came to the elections of 2008, and Obama’s rise…..this old addage is as true today, as it was when it was coined.

A lesson for those who voted for Obama. If it sounds to good to be true, it probably is. Don’t ever accept the rhetoric of a politician that promises you the moon, and the stars, and expect it to really be delivered.

Just like a hostage who will say, and do anything to attain their freedom, so would a politician, to get elected.

capejasmine on March 17, 2010 at 1:13 PM

They don’t care.
Once they control health care, and whatever else they choose to take over once they’re emboldened by this week’s fiasco, the next election won’t matter. The socialist bureaucracy will be in place and in charge, and there will be little that can be done about it.

n0doz on March 17, 2010 at 1:24 PM

Is it time for the dunderhead conservatives who wasted everybody’s time, lost focus and took the bait from berri’s gang by attacking and dividing their own, attempting to marginalize “birthers” and even dividing conservatives by the phoney lib-categories of “fiscal” (supposedly not pro-life) and “social” (pro-life and supposedely not fiscally conservative) conservative to wake up to the fact that they have been very useful idiots, a la erick ericson?

While we ripped each other over issues the radicals fed us, berri’s radicals, as usual, closed ranks, not excluding anyone, no matter how legitimately crazy or perverted as long as they played ball.

Now all of you “conservatives” can rejoice that no one will ever make you look crazy by association by questioning berri’s past/place of birth, as you are frog marched into the communist leader’s health re-education camp that he has provided for you somewhere in the 2700 pages that no one has read that will be deemed passed at any moment.

tigerlily on March 17, 2010 at 1:27 PM

They don’t care.
Once they control health care, and whatever else they choose to take over once they’re emboldened by this week’s fiasco, the next election won’t matter. The socialist bureaucracy will be in place and in charge, and there will be little that can be done about it.
n0doz on March 17, 2010 at 1:24 PM

They depend on the people to Fund their socialist bureaucracy.

Consider the fact that 46% of the Doctors are going to “Go Galt” – how many other people are contemplating the same thing?

Are they going to Force people to work?

Chip on March 17, 2010 at 1:46 PM

This matters not. There is nothing the GOP is going to do to overturn this. Nothing. Despite what Limbaugh tells you.

True_King on March 17, 2010 at 1:56 PM

They depend on the people to Fund their socialist bureaucracy.

Consider the fact that 46% of the Doctors are going to “Go Galt” – how many other people are contemplating the same thing?

Are they going to Force people to work?

Chip on March 17, 2010 at 1:46 PM

As much of a doom-and-gloomer as you all know me to be, I like this idea. Problem is, only those who can AFFORD to go Galt (look it up, Ayn Rand’s “Atlas Shrugged”) will do so.

It won’t likely look like Rand’s vision of it, at least until the end after the collapse of civilization happened. I sure hope we can save enough knowledge that the rebuilding will be swift, but being the student of history that I am I don’t have many illusions left on this score.

runawayyyy on March 17, 2010 at 2:14 PM

This only matters if we ever have elections again.

AubieJon on March 17, 2010 at 2:28 PM

Chip on March 17, 2010 at 1:46 PM

As much of a doom-and-gloomer as you all know me to be, I like this idea. Problem is, only those who can AFFORD to go Galt (look it up, Ayn Rand’s “Atlas Shrugged”) will do so.
It won’t likely look like Rand’s vision of it, at least until the end after the collapse of civilization happened. I sure hope we can save enough knowledge that the rebuilding will be swift, but being the student of history that I am I don’t have many illusions left on this score.
runawayyyy on March 17, 2010 at 2:14 PM

That was her failing – her way of fighting the Statists wasn’t that practical.
We need a practical way of having the same effect. So even if they succeed in demoniacally passing National Socialist Healthcare we can still stop the bus from going over a cliff.

Chip on March 17, 2010 at 2:34 PM

To be realistic about this, all we really need is a simple majority control of the House. The house writes, and must pass, all funding. Funding for health care, cap-n-tax, and ‘other’ far left items can go the way of immigration reform of the 1980′s. Which is to say, NO FUNDING FOR IT! Then, with a new president in 2012, these socialist dreams can be removed from the books using the same simple majority rules that were used to implement them.

What makes this far easier than many people think, is that SHUTING DOWN the federal government IS a valid tactic for people that want a balanced budget!

With Obama projecting a multi-trillion dollar deficit for as far as the eye can see, there will be a lot of public support TO shut down this INSANE spending!

Freddy on March 17, 2010 at 3:35 PM

This may be a disparity that even the Republicans won’t be able to overcome.

PersonFromPorlock on March 17, 2010 at 4:03 PM

VOYSKAPVO:

Ah, the M1 Garand! The Cadillac of semi auto rifles. I am lucky enough to own one of these sweeeeet babies too.

Thanks for the backup guys. I’m glad some of the HA Bravehearts started to speak up on this thread. The “Moriarity” (from *Kelly’s Heroes*) types were starting to bug me. LOL

JimP on March 17, 2010 at 5:27 PM

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