ObamaCare whip count(s): Pelosi in trouble?

posted at 4:10 pm on March 17, 2010 by Allahpundit

I’ve got a not-so-crazy hunch that the undecideds are simply waiting for their “deficit reduction” fig leaf from CBO to tumble towards yes, so let’s play pretend optimists while we can. Four whip counts for you to choose from:

1. WaPo sees 149 leaning yes, 205 leaning no, and fully 77 Democrats technically undecided. That’s an absurd number — surely Pelosi’s in the ballpark of 200 private commitments — but it does show you how reluctant House Dems are to embrace this thing until the last possible moment.

2. The Hill has 50 undecideds and 36 Democrats leaning no, which puts opponents within two of killing it. How firm are those no’s, though? Included among the leaners is Luis Gutierrez, who’s talking tough about walking away over amnesty but whom everyone but everyone expects will cave by Saturday. Even so, if their numbers are right and undecideds all vote the same way they did in November, Jeffrey Anderson calculates a final tally of … 207-224.

3. Gabriel Malor, more realistically, claims the true number of undecideds is 26, 16 of whom voted no last time and 10 of whom voted yes. Per his calculation Pelosi needs 24 of them, which puts him in line with The Hill’s shaky assessment that opponents could be as close as two votes away.

4. The lefties at Firedoglake think the real count, including leaners, stands dead even at 208-208 with O-Care in the hands of 15 centrist Democrats. Behold:

Lincoln Davis, Jim Matheson, Harry Teague, Travis Childers, John Barrow, Zack Space, Chris Carney, Brad Ellsworth, Jerry Costello, Henry Cuellar, Nick Rahall, Solomon Ortiz, Earl Pomeroy, Bill Foster, Harry Mitchell.

That’s quite a conservative group, all on the right side of the caucus. I don’t think Kucinich’s announcement really sways any of them; Kirkpatrick, a freshman from a swing district, would actually do more. And as I’ve said repeatedly, it’s the Stupak bloc, or members from it who split off, who will ultimately be in the position to decide this thing.

If they’re right, the actual tally is now 208-209 since Jerry Costello reaffirmed his no vote just within the past few hours. Jim Oberstar, who used to be part of Stupak’s bloc, defected to become a yes within the past few hours too but that was expected and reflected in all of the preceding numbers.

So there you have it. The CBO numbers should be out by tonight and the dominoes falling by tomorrow morning, leading to a heart-achey day indeed at the ol’ Hot Air homestead. Anything the GOP can do in a last-ditch bid to sway some fencesitters, aside from reminding them that the dopey polls warning of liberal anger if this thing fails don’t really apply in swing districts? Well, here’s video of Pence from this morning halfheartedly trying to assure Democrats that this isn’t a now-or-never vote and that bipartisan reform is on tap if they torpedo the Senate bill. I’ve been after the GOP leadership all week to issue make some sort of formal pledge in that regard, but I guess this’ll have to do. Forward the clip to a wavering Blue Dog of your choice.


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For those commenter above who are talking about CBO scoring, I wouldn’t spend two seconds thinking or talking about this. We all know that NO MATTER WHAT the CBO numbers are Obama, Reid and Pelosi will be crowing at the top of their lungs about how wonderful the numbers and say that they are “proof” that his plan is fantastic.

The American people in 2008 gave dictatorial power to Democrats. Now those voters and the rest of us are going to pay for that error, likely for the rest of our natural lives. We still need to fight the ugly Dems every single inch of the way to Nov. 2010 and then non-stop until 2012.

BillCarson on March 17, 2010 at 5:45 PM

What are they waiting for? Even Kucinich has made his move by now, and he is a liberal so it was actually easier for him to vote yes. No one expects him to be anything but a loon. But the rest of them? I dunno. I am beginning to wonder.

Terrye on March 17, 2010 at 5:59 PM

I’m so sorry GrannyDee. More and more of our friends are finding themselves in your situation. Hang in there, something will break for you soon. Sending a prayer and good thoughts your way.

ctmom on March 17, 2010 at 4:56 PM

Thanks, ctmom. Your good thoughts and prayers mean more than you can know.

God bless you.

GrannyDee on March 17, 2010 at 6:16 PM

Nanzi’s the whip wielding dominitrix from hell.

NoDonkey on March 17, 2010 at 4:53 PM

Um…..Palomino?

hillbillyjim on March 17, 2010 at 6:17 PM

I know some of you just can’t stand Hannity, but today, as I was driving, I listened. He said , and I’m not sure if it was speculation, or if he had word of this, but a promise to deliver water to that area of California, for the farmers there, was one of the promises Pelosi is making to an on the fence Dem. That was just one he mentioned. There were a few more as well…but I can’t remember what they were at the moment.

Dirty politics….and what’s disgusting me the most right now is…not one of them…not one damn democrat is willing to sacrifice their primo health care, and switch over to this crap they’re going to force on us. This is total, and utter b.s.!!!!!!!!!

capejasmine on March 17, 2010 at 7:46 PM

The American people in 2008 gave dictatorial power to Democrats. Now those voters and the rest of us are going to pay for that error, likely for the rest of our natural lives. We still need to fight the ugly Dems every single inch of the way to Nov. 2010 and then non-stop until 2012.

BillCarson on March 17, 2010 at 5:45 PM

100% agree.

I don’t harbor any ill will toward anyone….but I certainly hope that those who voted for this man, and democrats to totally take control here, learned a lesson from this. As adults given the privilege to vote….a little advice. Next time, spend less time believing false promises, and rhetoric like hope, and change….and pay attention to other sources. Read, research, and listen to opposing points of view. Because who you vote for, could well destroy everyone….and it looks like this time it will.

capejasmine on March 17, 2010 at 7:49 PM

Study: 45,000 Uninsured Die a Year
“We found that 45,000 Americans are dying annually, due to lack of health insurance,” said Dr. Steffie Woolhandler.

Steffie Woolhandler is a single payer advocate from way back, who did a Health Policy internship with Sen. Bernie Sanders (I/Communist – Vermont): “In 1986, she co-founded Physicians for a National Health Program, which advocates a single-payer system of national health insurance for the U.S.”

She and her compatriot David U. Himmelstein, MD always have their mug and pen on any Democratic health care push. Their pictures are here – I think I’ve seen this guy in some of the ‘white coat’ pictures standing near Obama, but can’t be sure…

Derailleur on March 17, 2010 at 8:16 PM

Study: 45,000 Uninsured Die a Year
“We found that 45,000 Americans are dying annually, due to lack of health insurance, which isn’t as bad as it sounds, considering over 40,000 people die every year in alcohol related traffic accidents” said Dr. Steffie Woolhandler. “I don’t hear any legislation beign crafted to reform either the traffic or the use of alcohol based on the number of deaths per year“.

I finished her statement for her. I know she wanted to say it….

BobMbx on March 17, 2010 at 9:44 PM

looks like the vote won’t be before Sunday; this is like Chinese water torture

Willie on March 17, 2010 at 10:12 PM

But but I heard the Anointed One say yesterday that we need health care reform right now. Right now! To cheers and applause of course.

But there will be a vote by the 4th of July; there really really will.

Dhuka on March 17, 2010 at 10:18 PM

What a sissy! I blew through an entire bag of Mounds for breakfast. Nice thing about gettinold … no sense of shame!

katy the mean old lady on March 17, 2010 at 4:46 PM

Oh Katy, I love you!

Willie on March 17, 2010 at 10:22 PM

Been awhile since I roused my ugly head. Was out of touch for awhile and when I got back I found that LGF had gone liberal looney(yep, took me one post and 14 seconds for Charles to banish my libertarian arse). But oh well to the topic of discussion…Obama is a boob, a naive desparate boob. I just had my 7th heart attack on Jan 1st and I still cringe at the thought of Obamacare! God I can only imagine how bad this is going to get with the increase in spending Pelosi is willing to drive for. I miss my country!

BadMojo on March 17, 2010 at 11:19 PM

The American people in 2008 gave dictatorial power to Democrats. Now those voters and the rest of us are going to pay for that error TERROR, likely for the rest of our natural lives.

BillCarson on March 17, 2010 at 5:45 PM

FIXED.

leftnomore on March 17, 2010 at 11:56 PM

For those commenter above who are talking about CBO scoring, I wouldn’t spend two seconds thinking or talking about this. We all know that NO MATTER WHAT the CBO numbers are Obama, Reid and Pelosi will be crowing at the top of their lungs about how wonderful the numbers and say that they are “proof” that his plan is fantastic.

BillCarson on March 17, 2010 at 5:45 PM

The public spin’s not really the only reason people are interested in the CBO score. There is language written into the reconciliation procedure mandating that the reconciliation provide an additional savings of $1 billion, compared to the original senate bill. I think the CBO is the one who determines if that requirement has been met.

I don’t have the links offhand, though I think Allah has discussed this at some point in the last few days. Maybe someone else remembers?

RINO in Name Only on March 18, 2010 at 12:03 AM

So, is it Obestar (“pro-life?”) who flipped from a “no” to a “yes” because Nancy Pelosi found some obscure nun who says Obamacare doesn’t violate a pro-life conscience, inspite of what the U.S. Catholic Bishops say? That’s a mighty, mighty thin reed to rest one’s conscience upon.

“Well Saint Peter, just before I voted on healthcare, Speaker Pelosi found this nun who convinced me that my vote wouldn’t result in the killing of babies in the womb…..so, can I get in there?”

olesparkie on March 18, 2010 at 7:42 AM

CBO numbers:

http://www.politico.com/livepulse/0310/CBO_numbers.html

Smoke and mirrors.

jazzmo on March 18, 2010 at 9:52 AM

44,000 died without health care. How many died that had health care? 58,000 lives are lost on Americas highways every year and it’s the law that in order to drive a vehicle you must have insurance. Well why are so many dying? Lets use this as a parallel to health care. How many people eat correctly? How many on drugs? How many DUI’s? There’s a bunch of different causes huh? Do you honestly think that the doctors offices will not be filled with people with the common cold? How about a rash? You will have some one who can’t make it in the real world and went to the government to get a job thats going to decide what type of treatment you are going to get and when you’re going to get it. I’m long here but you get my drift.

mixplix on March 18, 2010 at 4:22 PM

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