Florida: Romney 52, Huckabee 21, Palin 18

posted at 7:19 pm on March 11, 2010 by Allahpundit

We’ve done a million posts about this three-way match-up but I don’t think we’ve done one yet about a key swing state.

Not what I would have predicted.

Florida’s the first really important stop on the GOP calendar that we’ve looked at, and Romney’s lead there is overwhelming. He gets 52% to 21% for Huckabee and 18% for Palin. It’s closer, but still a double digit advantage, in Colorado. There Romney gets 44% to 25% for Palin and 17% for Huckabee.

In each state Romney has a big advantage with both moderates and conservatives, although he is particularly strong at this point with the center of his party. In Florida he leads Huckabee by 28 with conservatives and has a 36 point advantage over both Huckabee and Palin with moderates. In Colorado he’s up 8 on Palin with conservatives, but leads her by 41 with moderates.

One particular source of strength for Romney at this very early stage is that he’s doing even better with senior citizens than the overall electorate. In Florida he’s up 47 with voters over 65 and in Colorado it’s a 21 point margin.

The same poll has Rubio up 33 points on Crist, which is right in line with other recent polls. The sample appears to skew a bit old — 52 percent of respondents are 46 to 65 and another 23 percent are over 65 — but that’s actually not far off from the age split in the 2008 Florida primary exit poll. The most shocking data set:

fl

The same poll has Rubio leading Crist 72/15 among conservatives, which sounds about right. The question: What on earth happened to Sarahcuda? Third in Florida, behind even Huckabee — among conservatives, no less — when the other tea-party darling is crushing the sitting governor in the same demographic? Part of this may be due to her greater name recognition; her flaws are well known compared to Mitt’s and Huck’s so they benefit temporarily from public ignorance. But even if that’s true, it means a good-sized chunk of primary voters are already sufficiently ill disposed towards her that they’re opting for Romney or Huckabee more or less sight unseen. Even with Mitt’s book tour and Huck’s Fox show, they don’t have remotely as high a profile as she does after landing a spot on the ticket, selling an enormous volume of books, and being covered around the clock by the media. And yet, somehow, she trails both of them. Advantage: Ziegler.

Exit question: Is there any way at all that Romney doesn’t run after a poll like this? All he needs is one early state win — New Hampshire or Michigan — to give him a little mo heading into Florida into 2012. In fact, he might end up thinking of Florida as his firewall: Even if a social con takes South Carolina, Mitt’s still got Miami ahead to kill his opponent’s momentum.


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SECOND LOOK AT ROMNEY!

Allahpundit on March 11, 2010 at 7:25 PM

Isn’t this like the tenth or twelfth look?

ddrintn on March 12, 2010 at 12:06 AM

No, I’ve decided it’s a running gag.

alwaysfiredup on March 12, 2010 at 12:28 AM

Mitt better get his “A” game in high gear if he wants my vote.

csdeven on March 12, 2010 at 12:31 AM

And if you don’t know much about Mormonisn you’ll get the education of your life from the left with special attention to the magical underwear. the sorcery of Smith, sealing strangers (witout their consent to be included),wait ’till the evangelicals find out Mormons think Jesus and Satan are brothers, black people had no souls, polygamy, the salamander letters…the Left will pull it all out!

CCRWM on March 11, 2010 at 8:30 PM

And moreover, its religious bigotry by getting people vote against a candidate based on false information about the religion.

This kind of crap shouldn’t be tolerated on Hot Air boards.

I like Mitt/Ryan for the ticket.

Bambi on March 11, 2010 at 10:38 PM

I hope this is the ticket in 2012.

I like romney, but it must be said:RomneyCare!

rob verdi on March 11, 2010 at 9:26 PM

If someone makes another ignorant post about RomneyCare, I’m going to scream.

Even if you don’t like Romney’s health care plan, it is certainly in line with the conservative and constitutional principle known as federalism: states have the right to make decisions on how to resolve health care for their citizens, not the federal government.

Conservative Samizdat on March 12, 2010 at 12:37 AM

how can we run Romney and run against Obamacare???

Romney is a bad pick, there will be many in the disgruntled base that will have nothing to do with him. plus the mormon thing is toxic

jp on March 11, 2010 at 7:43 PM

I don’t get people who say they are conservative yet complain about a governor being a federalist. According to the constitution, the power to enact universal health care rests with the individual states. The people of MA wanted it and Mitt obliged. He has already said it will not work on a nation wide basis and last I heard he does not support it.

csdeven on March 12, 2010 at 12:41 AM

Mitt can’t win.

Nobody is going to vote for a mealy mouthed lukewarm Mormon.

Tales of a scrying device and White Jesus born in the USA are a little too much for most American to believe in.

Mr Purple on March 12, 2010 at 1:04 AM

CCRWM on March 11, 2010 at 8:30 PM

What, you’re telling me there exists evangelicals who haven’t been indoctrinated with how Mormons are a “cult”? Give me a break.

So tired of the bigotry, and goes for Mr Purple too. We aren’t voting for a Sunday School President people! I don’t even like Mitt that much, yet feel compelled to defend him because of people like you.

Conservative Voice on March 12, 2010 at 1:28 AM

What gets me, is when so called conservatives bang against Romney for his positions not being conservative, yet flag wave for Huck. I don’t consider Romney a conservative, but he is more conservative than Huck.

Conservative Voice on March 12, 2010 at 1:43 AM

Allahpundit’s “anti-Palin leg tingling” is showing a bit of – ahem – stress.

After all, wouldn’t anyone just a tad more level-headed ask, at first glancing at the table provided (real “exit question, Allahpundit):

just why a candidate so favored by “liberals” should be ostensibly so desirable for the GOP?!!?

Lockstein13 on March 12, 2010 at 1:45 AM

I know some of you won’t agree with me, but Mike Huckabee is the Conservative candidate you should be backing. I have always said Huckabee and Palin are very similar in their values and principles:

Pro-life
Against gay marriage
Had ethics lawsuits that were trivial from the Dems
Strongly Pro-guns
Relates to regular people
Outsider to Washington
Not an Establishment candidate
Excellent communication skills
Charismatic
Likeable
Good in debates
Looked down on from the Elites, not good enough college edu

But, Mike Huckabee has the following additional traits to help him:

Got 48% of the Black vote when he ran for Gov. Ark. Has 24% of black vote in a poll – best of all Republican candidates
Has 10 1/2 yrs executive experience as Gov. Arkansas
Has visited Israel 12 times – proved leadership with Israeli leaders
Can handle MSM interviews and questions easily- With Fox Show has good name recognition and has good numbers with Independents and Moderates in the last 12 PPP polls which he won the last 11 polls and tied 1 poll with Romney

If Sarah Palin decides not to run in 2012 and Huckabee does run in 2012, Romney can be beat if Palin endorses Huckabee and the Tea Party people support Huckabee. We can beat the Establishment candidate and take this country back to the Conservative platform. Huckabee is not beholding to anybody…Romney will be beholden to the Establishment. He will protect his rich frinds and not support legislation that will help the middle class and poor.

Mike Huckabee grew up poor and governed one of the poorest states in America. He knows what our needs are and would work hard to help us.

VFT on March 12, 2010 at 2:12 AM

Where was Ron Paul??

RightXBrigade on March 12, 2010 at 2:15 AM

csdeven,

The problem isn’t that Mitt supports Romneycare on an individual state basis (which I don’t agree with), it’s because he doesn’t see anything wrong with MANDATING healthcare. That is NOT a Conservative principle. That is growing the State Government over the health issues of it’s people. That’s just one step behind the federal level. If Mitt would become President and he doesn’t see a problem with that or advocating for abortion rights and same-sex marriage on a state level, how can we trust him as Republicans to support our values, not the liberal values of Massachusetts? He’s done that too long, he has shown a propensity to big government and all things Democratic too long to trust him as our REPUBLICAN President. That’s what I have against Mitt Romney is that he cannot be trusted..period!!!

VFT on March 12, 2010 at 2:18 AM

Who cares??? IOWA, then New Hampshire are the states that’ll count most. Romney will bomb in Iowa & Pawlenty will do great in both Iowa & New Hampshire.

Romney is a moderate pro choicer with RomneyCare hanging around his neck. IOW, HE’S HISTORY!!!

LFRGary on March 12, 2010 at 2:28 AM

Huckabee will win Iowa…they just had a poll on Iowa last week and he beat Romney by 10 points. Huckabee has also beat Romney in every southern poll in the last month.

VFT on March 12, 2010 at 2:50 AM

Where was Ron Paul??

RightXBrigade on March 12, 2010 at 2:15 AM

Probably working on the newsletter.

Kensington on March 12, 2010 at 3:09 AM

Wrong on the Huckster…

Gohawgs on March 12, 2010 at 3:11 AM

Probably working on the newsletter.

Kensington on March 12, 2010 at 3:09 AM

Certainly not working for his district…

Gohawgs on March 12, 2010 at 3:12 AM

The question: What on earth happened to Sarahcuda? Third in Florida, behind even Huckabee — among conservatives, no less — when the other tea-party darling is crushing the sitting governor in the same demographic?

This —-ing question again?

Allah, what part of “she’s the only one of the three who hasn’t run for president” do you not understand? (Or think important?)

Sarah’s total exposure on presidential footing is still infinitesimal compared to Romney, Huckabee, Thompson, or McCain. And it will stay that way until she actually gets in a race and has debates head-to-head with the other fellas. So twhining about “why?” is an indulgent waste of angst at this point.

Part of this may be due to her greater name recognition; her flaws are well known compared to Mitt’s and Huck’s so they benefit temporarily from public ignorance.

How about, her presidential attributes are less well-known than Mitt’s or Huck’s? And rather than Mitt or Huck gaining, she loses temporarily due to public ignorance.

But even if that’s true, it means a good-sized chunk of primary voters are already sufficiently ill disposed towards her that they’re opting for Romney or Huckabee more or less sight unseen.

Again, can we wait until Palin’s had equivalent exposure as a presidential candidate to these other two, criss-crossed the state campaigning, etc., before jumping to conclusions?

Even with Mitt’s book tour and Huck’s Fox show, they don’t have remotely as high a profile as she does after landing a spot on the ticket

VP slot, only 4-5 weeks real solid exposure after you subtract the financial meltdown and the craziness leading up to November.

Romney was Mr. 2002 Salt Lake City Olympics. That predates Palin by several years. And that’s before the buildup to the last election.

…selling an enormous volume of books, and being covered around the clock by the media. And yet, somehow, she trails both of them.

Yes. How is that possible, I wonder? Oh, other than never having run for president before…

RD on March 12, 2010 at 4:01 AM

A mainstream conservative,
such as Ron Paul for example.

Whoa!! Now how did those two phrases ever come to be in the same sentence?!?!

The Dean on March 11, 2010 at 7:44 PM

Oh. I guess that explains it.

There Goes The Neighborhood on March 12, 2010 at 4:13 AM

McCain with hair. ObamaCare RomneyCare for all!. “The choice” of the MSM.

CC

CapedConservative on March 12, 2010 at 6:01 AM

McCain with hair.

Bush with a bigger forehead.

percysunshine on March 12, 2010 at 6:08 AM

McCain with hair.
Bush with a bigger forehead.

percysunshine on March 12, 2010 at 6:08 AM

OK; I think I got the hang of this game:

Romney: able-bodied McCain
Brown: male version of Romney
Palin: a real man

Lockstein13 on March 12, 2010 at 6:21 AM

OK; I think I got the hang of this game:

Romney: able-bodied McCain
Brown: male version of Romney
Palin: a real man

Paul: alien metro-compatable Delay

percysunshine on March 12, 2010 at 6:53 AM

I will support anyone not named Barack Hussein Obama…MMM…mmmm….mmmmmm…………..

adamsmith on March 12, 2010 at 7:30 AM

Yeah, I think we need do better than this. Romney’s already had his day and he’s damaged goods. Palin, as much as I like her, has allowed the democrats and media to stereotype her. Huckabee please no! We need someone new and fresh because come 2012 Obama’s propaganda/hollywood makeover machine will be in full swing and will be going for the new, fresh, and bold approach again. And the stupidity of the people in this country knows no bounds so they’ll lap it up. The Romney creepy factor needs to be overcome and he’s pretty much the same old, same old. So trying to repackage him is going to take a lot of energy and cash that we can’t afford. I sure hope there’s a dark horse out there, because when we take back the Congress in 2010, there will be 2 more years for the democrats and their hacks to spook people enough into not voting for a republican as president also.

mozalf on March 12, 2010 at 7:35 AM

Where was Ron Paul??

RightXBrigade on March 12, 2010 at 2:15 AM

He’s co-hosting the annual toad-balancing contest alongside Alex Jones, outside the gate to Area 51.

1st prize this year is an ‘End The Fed’ t-shirt, and as much tinfoil as you can eat.

mudskipper on March 12, 2010 at 7:51 AM

The McCain – Romney comparisons are silly. There are vast differences in their experience and positions on issues.

Post Vietnam, McCain has been a Washington bureaucrat with no business experience, and he has a cringeworthy tendency to demonize corporate America, Wall Street, and “the special interests”. McCain was the deciding vote against drilling in ANWR.

Romney has has spent his life in the private sector with a phenomenal record of turning around failing businesses into profitable operations. Mitt supported drilling in ANWR and offshore, and supported the eevil Bush administration’s efforts in 2005.

Buy Danish on March 12, 2010 at 8:01 AM

Even if you don’t like Romney’s health care plan, it is certainly in line with the conservative and constitutional principle known as federalism: states have the right to make decisions on how to resolve health care for their citizens, not the federal government.

Conservative Samizdat

This is ABSOLUTELY the most ABSURD argument for “Mittens is a Conservative” that I have EVER HEARD. So you are saying that he is a conservative because he exercised his STATE’S rights by passing a HUGE Govt. entitlement program??? HUH???

Dan Pet on March 12, 2010 at 8:41 AM

Romney is George Soros’ pick for the “Zero” to run against. He’s 2012′s McLame who Soros advises the lame stream media to push to be the Republican candidate.

Nothing to see here, move on.

Allah is a closet “Zero” fan. No one in their CONSERVATIVE mind would run Romney the has been. Typical Republican “Let’s run this loser, it’s his turn” BS. See Bob Dole, duh!

It’s time for the Republican party to stop REACTING and ACT.

Jayrae on March 12, 2010 at 8:45 AM

Where was Ron Paul??

RightXBrigade on March 12, 2010 at 2:15 AM

Looking for the mothership?

MarkTheGreat on March 12, 2010 at 9:08 AM

just why a candidate so favored by “liberals” should be ostensibly so desirable for the GOP?!!?

Lockstein13 on March 12, 2010 at 1:45 AM

Interesting why AP fails to share his POLL source in the post and falls for the classic “Hey you so-cons, here’s the candidate you really want. See how well he out shines that woman from Alaska? Now you know that you should never run with that Palin woman.”
 
Typically shallow dhimmicraps always make sure to tell us exactly who and what they most fear. That’s not AP’s problem. He’s a Palinista in secret.

Blacksmith8 on March 12, 2010 at 9:16 AM

Romney + Paul Ryan would get my vote, but two wonks/technocrats on the same ticket? Electoral death.

Mitt has enough umph to account for his own nerdtastic overachiever shtick, but he doesn’t have enough to make up for Ryan’s.

spmat on March 12, 2010 at 9:19 AM

Just asking, but what were Rudy’s numbers in Florida in early 2006? Two and a half years out! AYFKM?

singer on March 12, 2010 at 9:25 AM

Terrible news. Romney as the GOP nominee ensures four more years of Obama. Let’s not be that stupid. We already went the RINO route with McCain. No need to do that again.

keepinitreal on March 12, 2010 at 9:32 AM

I’m for Mitt, the man is AMAZING!

scotash on March 12, 2010 at 10:38 AM

That’s what I have against Mitt Romney is that he cannot be trusted..period!!!

VFT on March 12, 2010 at 2:18 AM

MA healthcare was something the Progressives in his state wanted. As their representative he did his best to make it work.

It’s true he is an unknown and that is scary. I am troubled by his gun control stance and his vote for the first bailout. He seems as if he is more concerned with getting elected than being a conservative. But what do you do if Mitt runs against Obama? Vote for Obama or stay home? We are on the cusp of the takeover of healthcare and have falling into record deficits. All under Obama. He’s this bad now, how bad will he be when he’s a lame duck?

csdeven on March 12, 2010 at 10:51 AM

Me too! I’m… Wait, you mean for President? No. Just no.

/No Huckelberry Pie either

Irritable Pundit on March 12, 2010 at 10:58 AM

Oh, boy. We have a choice between an idiot preacher-cum-alk-show-host, a sellout ex-governor, or the moron who brought public health care to Massachusetts. The nation is bleeding to death and we get our choices of bandaids.

But we don’t need a bandaid, we need a tourniquet. Our best hope, as I see it, is that the Dems may manufacture some calamity that will keep the elections from happening at all in 2010. That might bring forward the sort of political opposition with the mindset necessary to solve America’s problems.

Venusian Visitor on March 12, 2010 at 11:09 AM

I know some of you won’t agree with me, but Mike Huckabee is the Conservative candidate you should be backing. I have always said Huckabee and Palin are very similar in their values and principles:

Pro-life
Against gay marriage
Had ethics lawsuits that were trivial from the Dems
Strongly Pro-guns
Relates to regular people
Outsider to Washington
Not an Establishment candidate
Excellent communication skills
Charismatic
Likeable
Good in debates
Looked down on from the Elites, not good enough college edu

But, Mike Huckabee has the following additional traits to help him:

Got 48% of the Black vote when he ran for Gov. Ark. Has 24% of black vote in a poll – best of all Republican candidates
Has 10 1/2 yrs executive experience as Gov. Arkansas
Has visited Israel 12 times – proved leadership with Israeli leaders
Can handle MSM interviews and questions easily- With Fox Show has good name recognition and has good numbers with Independents and Moderates in the last 12 PPP polls which he won the last 11 polls and tied 1 poll with Romney

If Sarah Palin decides not to run in 2012 and Huckabee does run in 2012, Romney can be beat if Palin endorses Huckabee and the Tea Party people support Huckabee. We can beat the Establishment candidate and take this country back to the Conservative platform. Huckabee is not beholding to anybody…Romney will be beholden to the Establishment. He will protect his rich frinds and not support legislation that will help the middle class and poor.

Mike Huckabee grew up poor and governed one of the poorest states in America. He knows what our needs are and would work hard to help us.

VFT on March 12, 2010 at 2:12 AM

First there is more to being a conservative than being pro-gun, anti-gay marriage, and pro-life. Romney has his Romney-care, and Huck wants government to help people with smoking and diet. They are cut from the same cloth, only Huck isn’t that strong of a fiscal conservative and is too quick to forgive violent criminals.

And I could care less that Huck grew up poor…Can’t stand, absolutely can’t stand class warfare as a means as proving someone is a better candidate any more than I can’t stand people using religion. And Huck is guilty of both. This puts him in the camp of Hell No for me.

If the Tea Parties endorses Mike, they will lose all credibility.

Conservative Voice on March 12, 2010 at 12:15 PM

Islamic fascists are anti-gay marriage…there are pro-life communists…and I am sure I can dig up fascists/communists/ who are also pro-gun.
There is one single thing that separates these people and a conservative….freedom. And that can only happen when government growth is contained and spending is drastically cut. I don’t consider Romney to be conservative, because of Romney care…but he is more fiscally responsible than Huck.

Conservative Voice on March 12, 2010 at 12:54 PM

Palin Leads 2012 GOP Pack


From Real Clear Politics:

A CNN/Opinion Research Corporation poll conducted on February 18-19 among 429 Republicans shows Sarah Palin with a slight edge over Mike Huckabee and Mitt Romney as the preferred GOP nominee for 2012:

Alaska Governor Sarah Palin 29%
Former Arkansas Governor Mike Huckabee 26%
Former Massachusetts Governor Mitt Romney 21%
Louisiana Governor Bobby Jindal 9%
Someone else 10%
None/no one 4%
No opinion 2%

Republican men split more or less evenly among the top three choices, but Palin has a double digit lead among GOP women, winning 32% to Huckabee’s 22% and 20% for Romney.

Funny that Allah missed this one, huh.

gary4205 on March 12, 2010 at 2:32 PM

Dan Pet on March 12, 2010 at 8:41 AM

Huh? How is it a “HUGE government entitlement program”? There’s a mandate which requires that one purchase insurance (something which reasonable people can argue about)but it is not an “entitlement program”.

Buy Danish on March 12, 2010 at 3:37 PM

Palin Leads 2012 GOP Pack

From Real Clear Politics:

A CNN/Opinion Research Corporation poll conducted on February 18-19 among 429 Republicans shows Sarah Palin with a slight edge over Mike Huckabee and Mitt Romney as the preferred GOP nominee for 2012:

Alaska Governor Sarah Palin 29%
Former Arkansas Governor Mike Huckabee 26%
Former Massachusetts Governor Mitt Romney 21%
Louisiana Governor Bobby Jindal 9%
Someone else 10%
None/no one 4%
No opinion 2%

Republican men split more or less evenly among the top three choices, but Palin has a double digit lead among GOP women, winning 32% to Huckabee’s 22% and 20% for Romney.

Funny that Allah missed this one, huh.

gary4205 on March 12, 2010 at 2:32 PM

Yeah. What he said!
Also funny that the poll is from CNN (the communist no-news network or was it clinton nonsense network?)

Blacksmith8 on March 12, 2010 at 4:14 PM

If Huckster and MittCare are what are polling 3/4% of voting Conservatives then Republicans better start yelling real hard a Glenn Beck and start blaming him and Tea Partiers real quick and get their story straight. I guarantee you’ll HAVE to worry about a 3rd party Conservative candidate and Obama may just stay in place.

But that’s AP’s wet dream now isn’t it? Secure yourself a job when the rest of us are losing ours.

Sultry Beauty on March 12, 2010 at 4:52 PM

Mike Huckabee grew up poor and governed one of the poorest states in America. He knows what our needs are and would work hard to help us.

VFT on March 12, 2010 at 2:12 AM

Pluuueze. Huckster is a compassionate conservative – pardons galore out the wahzoo even over the recommendations of the parole board. He’s a nanny-ist and and big-gubminter to boot. And really didn’t do squat for Arkansas. Go away huckleberry.

AH_C on March 12, 2010 at 8:43 PM

Huh? How is it a “HUGE government entitlement program”? There’s a mandate which requires that one purchase insurance (something which reasonable people can argue about)but it is not an “entitlement program”.

Buy Danish on March 12, 2010 at 3:37 PM

Good point.

I don’t see ignorant Hot Air conservatives getting upset when the government requires car drivers to buy car insurance or require businesses to carry insurance or lawyers to purchase malpractice insurance.

Health care isn’t a right. If you want access to health care, you have to either pay for it yourself or get health insurance because the tax payers shouldn’t be paying for those who refuse to get health care when they need it during a medical emergency.

Conservative Samizdat on March 13, 2010 at 11:56 AM

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