Don’t expect a hiring boom any time soon
posted at 9:30 am on March 10, 2010 by Ed Morrissey
In fact, hiring may not be as good as it has been this quarter — when the net result was a loss of 62,000 jobs since the start of the year. The latest global survey from Manpower shows American employers slightly less willing to hire new workers, with three-quarters of them planning to maintain their status quo instead for the spring. The rest of the world has a brighter outlook (via DogSoldier):
U.S. employers are slightly less willing to hire workers in the coming quarter than they were three months ago, even as hiring intentions improved in most other countries and territories, especially in Asia, according to a quarterly survey by Manpower.
Its U.S. survey renewed questions about the pace and sustainability of a forecasted U.S. jobs recovery, and whether eventual jobs creation will make much of a dent in the ranks of unemployed, which now number some 17 million Americans.
The global employment services company said Tuesday its seasonally adjusted U.S. net employment outlook was plus-5 for the second quarter, down slightly from plus-6 in the previous survey.
The index number comes from a calculation of businesses that plan expansions against those who plan cuts. Seventy-three percent plan neither, preferring to wait until consumer demand rebounds. Unfortunately, consumer demand won’t rebound until more consumers get jobs, setting up what CNBC rightly calls an economic catch-22.
How can the US break that catch-22? In the early 1980s, the government sent strong pricing signals on taxation that encouraged capital to flow back into the markets after the double-dip recession from 1980-1982, the last time unemployment got to this level. Not only did the Reagan administration roll back income taxes, it also lowered capital gains taxes and reduced regulation on energy production, providing the economy with cheaper energy to fuel the expansion. George W. Bush did the same after the 2000-1 and 9/11 recession, starting a five-year expansion.
By contrast, this administration has signaled higher costs and larger tax burdens since taking office. Employers face health-insurance mandates, capital-gains tax hikes, surtaxes, and an energy policy guaranteed to make production and transportation costs skyrocket. Even when consumer demand starts to increase, businesses will hesitate to expand while they hedge their bets — and their cash — against the coming tax storms.
Instead of having an American expansion, it looks as though we’re going to let Asia and the rest of the world have it for us.
Blowback
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The point is that Obama’s punitive business/tax policies are paralyzing the country, making employers and investors afraid to act, seriously impeding any chances for job growth or other benefits to prosperity.
CNN (or preferably FOX), as well as blogs like these, can help people understand why Obama’s “solutions” (as well as those of his comrades in Congress) are an unmitigated disaster. Judging from recent polling results, the American people are getting that message loud and clear.
Buy Danish on March 10, 2010 at 10:50 AM
As did mine when we got married and she saw our first joint tax return.
angryed on March 10, 2010 at 10:53 AM
Obama’s own website says 599,000 were employed in Q4 2009 due to the stimulus. So the vast majority of that turnaround was organic. The economy simply shed all the jobs it was going to shed.
It’s getting them back that’s the challenge.
Chuck Schick on March 10, 2010 at 10:56 AM
A lot of them do pay 0, which is part of the problem. Politicians will keep killing jobs with the “progressive” tax system so long as they can raise they highest brackets while lowering the lowest ones.
Count to 10 on March 10, 2010 at 10:56 AM
I agree with you. What Obama has planned will be horrible for the economy if it makes it into legislation, but luckily for us there is already plenty of bad economic policy already in place, and that’s my point. This didn’t just happen in the last year. The ground work for this mess was laid years ago. We should make the best politically of Obama’s proposals, but we need to be honest with ourselves about the underlying problems that caused the current crisis.
DFCtomm on March 10, 2010 at 10:59 AM
You don’t need much knowledge to screw up an economy. Just a wrong idea and your hand on a lever of power. See: Barny Frank, Chris Dodd.
Count to 10 on March 10, 2010 at 10:59 AM
Even worse. The process of turning the tax code into a stealth entitlement program is already well underway, and many people get back more than they paid in on their tax return. We should make April 15th a holiday called alexis de tocqueville day.
DFCtomm on March 10, 2010 at 11:02 AM
We aren’t blaming Obama, we are blaming Democrats.
You know, the same Democrats who took over in 2006? The ones that have made everything go downhill since 2006?
The very Democrats that caused the recession in the first place? And then, in an attempt to fix their blunder, have not made things any better at all? The very Democrats that are using the census to scoop up thousands of people in order to get them off the unemployment stats for a couple months to make themselves look better?
Show me the businesses that are excited about life under Obamacare, Cap n Tax, Amnesty. Show me the banks that can’t wait to not be able to foreclose on deadbeat borrowers. Show me the bank that will give a business credit.
It’s a mess, and you know it.
That 94% drop is due more to private sector dedication in spite of Obama and his merry band of Democrats.
Come back with your retardisms once we stop losing jobs. Whenever that might be.
uknowmorethanme on March 10, 2010 at 11:06 AM
Pretty much.
I’m for scrapping the whole social security/medicare/medicade tax system (paying what commitments have been already made from the general fund), and going to a deductionless flat tax for the federal government (states can do what they want).
Count to 10 on March 10, 2010 at 11:09 AM
Yes, bad economic policies led us into a recession. However you must be honest with yourself about the CURRENT crisis and realize the crisis is not the recession, but the Gov’t keeping the chains on recovery.
The Gov’t is the single reason why we are still struggling as a nation. If they aren’t holding us back on purpose, then I need some help explaining how they can be so stupid.
It’s obvious Ed and AP have taken the “he’s got good intentions and needs to stop being such an idealogue” route when in reality he is doing exactly what he wants to do.
People who refuse to educate themselves on radical liberalism need help. This is not a “mistake” or “wrong-headed” decision. This is on purpose.
uknowmorethanme on March 10, 2010 at 11:12 AM
I agree. The progressive income tax is marxist, and has no place in America.
DFCtomm on March 10, 2010 at 11:13 AM
Speaking of the Census, did anyone else get a letter from the Census Bureau begging you to participate in the Census so that your community could get it’s “fair share” (entitled allotment) of federal pork?
Count to 10 on March 10, 2010 at 11:14 AM
OK…. but now you need to ADD in the almost 80-90K a month LEGAL Immigrants we allow in…
If 2/3rds of those are working age adults, you have MORE folks here looking for work.
Romeo13 on March 10, 2010 at 11:18 AM
Hmmmmm.
Mostly it’s just dumb, and incredibly corrupt. Which I guess would make it more Statist than Marxist (though that is probably at the leave of splitting hairs).
Count to 10 on March 10, 2010 at 11:19 AM
I’ve got a friend who’s been unemployed for some time now. He was telling me that even with his college education, military service, and experience, he’s having a hard time finding jobs. He was even thinking of creating a fake resume and giving that to fast food places. A supervisor at a local eatery told him not to because many of these places are doing background checks, more so than in the past. Companies are being extremely picky right now, and they have the ability to do so. When they have over 50 applicants for one position, they’re not just going to hire the first person they see, they can wait it out to get the cream of the crop. They’re not going to hire someone and then 3 months later, find out the person’s not a good fit to the job or company.
My buddy’s wife works in HR and she’s heard of some companies giving jobs back to the veterans (like they’re required to do) that come back. After about three months, they giving them write ups and then letting them go.
I know this is all second hand, so I’m taking this with a grain of salt.
Torch on March 10, 2010 at 11:27 AM
If Ojesus were interested in actually doing something to stimulate the economy and create real, productive jobs, he would rein in the EPA, promote legislation that encourages domestic production and refining of our own oil (especially offshore), debunk AGW and reassure investors that cap’n'trade won’t happen, reduce corporate and capital gains taxes, and quit attacking the people who have capital to invest in our future.
Not to mention, do tort reform and interstate health insurance, and move the fxxx on.
I know, I know. When pigs fly.
hillbillyjim on March 10, 2010 at 11:29 AM
Torch on March 10, 2010 at 11:27 AM
Tell your friend to look for a federal job. Military veterans get a five point preference and it’s actually being enforced now. Disabled vets get a 10 point preference.
NoDonkey on March 10, 2010 at 11:35 AM
Ed,
I have to humbly disagree. This time around –
“Its the uncertainty stupid!”
Business is not hiring as they don’t know what is coming down the pike as far as health care demands, further regulations, additional taxes like a VAT,etc. Under that environment business folds the blanket around themselves and retrenches siting on the sidelines till conditions improve.
Dr. Dog on March 10, 2010 at 11:39 AM
I have been in the career/workforce development biz for 30 years.
Your pal’s strategy may pay off with a “job” job in the short term, but there’s no percentage in it over the long haul.
The downside of taking a “job” job is it sucks up the time and resources needed for pursuing a “real” career job.
That said, ya gotta do what ya gotta do.
The last time it was this ugly out there Carter was in the Big Chair.
Good luck to your buddy.
Bruno Strozek on March 10, 2010 at 11:41 AM
It certainly wasn’t caused by Reaganomics. The Community Investment Act (and Fannie Mae/Freddie Mac) are most to blame, as its policies caused the housing collapse, which is at the root of everything.
Bush is at fault to the extent that he bought into the idea that home ownership should be increased (and he went to ridiculous lengths, such as including Section 8 housing allowances as “income” in order to qualify for a loan). But he (and McCain) did try to reform Fannie & Freddie, but Barney Frank, Chris Dodd, Maxine Waters and the rest of their comrades refused and decided to “roll the dice one more time”.
Buy Danish on March 10, 2010 at 12:36 PM
I run the largest website on the net that matches small businesses seeking loans with the lenders that provide them.
We have had to change our business model to now match businesses with service providers like debt re-structuring and hard money loans.
I have more insight into the job market due to our link to the small business community. I can tell you that small businesses are not expanding. They are shrinking, downsizing. And the ones that want to grow cannot get the capital they need. Period. The capital market for small businesses is frozen shut.
Since 70+% of all jobs are created by small business, the job market will be stagnant for quite some time. I do not listen to the big brains on the Hill when they wax on about “saved or created jobs” because I am on the front lines seeing exactly what is going on and I know the situation the job market is really in and it is on life support.
Opposite Day on March 10, 2010 at 12:49 PM
Better get used to it, because nothing’s going to change until at least November…and even then, the amount of possible business resurgence will be dependent upon exactly how massive a rout the GOP can pull off…and even then, there’s no possibility of a return to any real normalcy until the neo-marxist is sent packing in 2012.
The people of this country – betrayed by a criminally negligent news media – elected a man who, in his heart and mind, is absolutely no different than a Bill Ayers or a Ward Churchill: he simply talks slicker and lacks a criminal record. He’s a pure, out-n-out Leftist radical. And as such, he has no real concern for for this nation or it’s people…except in as much as said “people” serve as an abstract excuse for furthering his Leftist-inspired aims.
The Democrats need to be completely demoralized come this November. Then, the first order of business on the Republican’s agenda should be to call for open, televised hearings that clearly illustrate the culpability of the Leftist agenda that was behind the financial collapse. And those hearings should name names: Carter, CRA, Clinton, ACORN, and yes, Obama.
Finally, we need to realize that we have to stop fighting tactical battles with the Left and begin fighting a strategic battle. We need to cut them off at knees by planning for and advocating an all-out assault that will finally – once and for all – defang the Left’s great enabler: the Federal govt. The Republican platform should promote a permanent re-embracing of the great American concepts of personal freedom and personal responsibility by advocating for two amendments to the Constitution: a Maximum Budget amendment and a Maximum Tax amendment.
A Maximum Budget amendment would limit the annual federal budget to a maximum of 15% of the nation’s current annual GDP. Exceptions would only be made in the event of war, attack, or natural disaster; and would require supermajority votes in both the House and Senate…votes that would have to be renewed by supermajorities annually.
A Maximum Tax amendment, which would limit the amount that the federal govt can collect from any individual to 20% of their income annually…that includes income tax, FICA, Medicare, everything. Period.
rvastar on March 10, 2010 at 1:13 PM
I truly feel sorry for anyone who is out of work right now.
The jackass in the White House is making everything worse as he continues to pursue his job-killing agenda.
Not only is Washington not helping, they are hurting everyone’s economic prospects.
How any sane, reasonably intelligent individual, can think that the Democrat’s vision is the right course for our country right now, just escapes me.
If our goal was to sustain high rates of unemployment, what would we be doing differently?
NoDonkey on March 10, 2010 at 1:15 PM
Of course many of us already knew that.
I hope one of the trolls here takes your perspective to heart, but I remain cynical.
As ranchers, my husband & I have seen what you describe in that the Equity businesses & such that we deal with on a credit basis are often refusing to allow us to charge for feed, mineral, fencing supplies, etc & pay them off at the end of the year when we sell calves any more.
So since we cannot do this, but need the stuff to run our ranch, my husband had to take a chance on our aging semi, invest in a grain trailer, & go commercial hauling grain, & lease a cattle pot & haul cattle, all to come up with cash to buy the things we were able to charge before.
I pray to God that our semi stays together long enough to make a little $$ for us to sqeak by.
Badger40 on March 10, 2010 at 1:25 PM
You are mostly on the mark, but I do disagree with your statement about the people being fooled & tricked into voting for these people:
PEOPLE ARE LAZY & STUPID
And they choose to remain WILLFULLY ignorant.
This is why we have problems in America today.
Badger40 on March 10, 2010 at 1:28 PM
Nonsense! The Obama administration is saving or creating jobs ever day………..in China.
TrickyDick on March 10, 2010 at 1:48 PM
Oh stop complaining and work your 6 part time jobs with no benefits.
elderberry on March 10, 2010 at 2:02 PM
The losses tarted after Bozo got elected and became steadily worse despite the despicable porkulus and now the regime is hiding the increase in unemployment and homelessness.
Real unemployment is close to 25% and its going to get worse. In a couple months over two million new college grads will be seeking work. The temporary census workers will be all done by august.
September is gonna be pretty bad, by all indications.
dogsoldier on March 10, 2010 at 3:12 PM
I disagree. I think that the majority of Americans are “naively trusting” of many of our institutions and leaders. It simply doesn’t occur to many of them that many of our political and cultural “elites” profoundly dislike this country as is and will use dishonest – even unconstitutional – means to reshape it to their liking.
The good news is that I think the period of 2008-2012 is going to cure many of that naive trust. It’s already happening actually :)
rvastar on March 10, 2010 at 3:54 PM
If you are naieve, you may not be lazy, but IMHO you are stupid for continuing to remain that way.
I have now made it a point to research a candidate before I vote for them.
And if I know nothing about them, I do not make a decision.
I don’t even vote blind party.
Too many people have no desire to educate themselves about these important issues & a lot of that may be bcs they feel overwhelmed & that their vote doesn’t count anyway.
So maybe the GOP needs to organize & educate people better abt the fact that their votes really do count.
Badger40 on March 10, 2010 at 4:57 PM
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