PPP poll: Romney polls best with “swing voters” among top GOP contenders
posted at 8:50 pm on February 24, 2010 by Allahpundit
At last, an explanation for the McCain endorsement?
Our national poll last week found that 37% of voters were definitely planning to go Republican this year and 34% were definitely planning to support Democrats- that leaves 29% of the electorate up for grabs- who are those swing voters?
The voters who will determine the balance of control for the next Congress are a pretty Democratic leaning group- 62% voted for Barack Obama last year while 36% voted for John McCain. They only approve of Obama by a 52/37 margin though. The fact that his disapproval and the support McCain received from them is basically the same indicates that Obama hasn’t really lost any of these voters yet. But the drop from 62% who voted for him to 52% who now approve of him does suggest a lot of them haven’t really decided whether they think he’s a good President or not…
Although this has little immediate relevance the divide between how these voters see Mitt Romney and Mike Huckabee vs. Sarah Palin is pretty remarkable. Romney has a positive 39/24 favorability spread and Huckabee’s is 32/22. But Palin’s is 27/57! Republican candidates are going to be a lot better off coming across as Romney like than Palinesque this fall.
I’m having a hard time squaring that 62/36 split for Obama in 2008 among this year’s “swing voters” with the alarms being sounded about a Republican tsunami. Granted, the group may lean Democratic only slightly, but if they’re the deciding factor in the midterms and Obama has a +15 approval rating among them even now, how “slight” can it be? And how can that translate into things looking as grim for the Dems as they currently do? If you believe PPP, a Democrat like Kendrick Meek should be reasonably tight with Crist and, especially, Rubio in a purple state like Florida. The actual numbers: Crist 48, Meek 32, and Rubio 51, Meek 31. The “Palinesque” candidate, who’s on his way to a romp in the primary, actually fares better in a swing state than a center-right incumbent. Go figure.
That said, as counterintuitive as it may seem, the guy who got creamed by Obama two years ago among swing voters may retain a certain mavericky brand cachet with them. If centrists are as down on a “true conservative” like Palin as PPP claims, then the best way to signal to them that you’re not like her may be to snuggle up to — irony of ironies — her running mate. This is going to be a weird, weird race. Exit question: Is Sarahcuda the new … Jesse Jackson? Charismatic! Pure! And, maybe, unelectable?
Update: Hmmmmmmmmm.
Blowback
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James Carville’s poll pushing Romney?
The same Romney that, with $150MILLION DOLLARS in 2008, couldn’t win ONE SINGLE PRIMARY STATE where a family member handn’t been governor?
Sign me up!!!!!!!!!!!!
battleoflepanto1571 on February 24, 2010 at 8:52 PM
SECOND LOOK AT ROMNEY?
Allahpundit on February 24, 2010 at 8:54 PM
Sarah is entirely unelectable. She’s a tribal totem not a leader.
And none of the other tribes have any use for her whatsoever.
happyfeet on February 24, 2010 at 8:54 PM
Dude, I think you just out-RINO’d me.
Allahpundit on February 24, 2010 at 8:55 PM
Huh?
neurosculptor on February 24, 2010 at 8:55 PM
Palin needs to stay on the sidelines and rally the troops… she is not presidential material. She’s only barely more qualified than Obama.
DaveS on February 24, 2010 at 8:55 PM
Way too early.
artist on February 24, 2010 at 8:56 PM
This ‘swing vote’ (i.e., independents) candidate of choice is already settled. His name is ‘Not Obama’. Last time I checked, that was anybody not named Obama. That includes (but is not limited to) candidates named Romney.
AUINSC on February 24, 2010 at 8:56 PM
I feel… honoured.
happyfeet on February 24, 2010 at 8:56 PM
Yeah, um, I’m just going to keep crossing my fingers for 3 more years that we don’t nominate Huckabee.
I can’t get it up to freak on every poll until 2012.
myrenovations on February 24, 2010 at 8:56 PM
name me one primary (not caucus) state without a Romney as governor that Mitt carried in 2008 gop primaries
in the GOP primries.
with a 50-state GROUND GAME
with $150 MIL in the war chest.
UNELECTABLE!!!!
battleoflepanto1571 on February 24, 2010 at 8:57 PM
feets!
Karl on February 24, 2010 at 8:57 PM
Yeah, probably. At least for this cycle.
jaime on February 24, 2010 at 8:58 PM
Nah…his name is still Crist. He can dress up as anything he wants…he can’t escape the fact that his is still Crist.
AUINSC on February 24, 2010 at 8:58 PM
PPP: Doug Hoffman by +15!!!!!!!!
And no, AP, happyfeet is not a RINO… he/she/it is a liberal that is obsessed with Governor Palin.
Enoxo on February 24, 2010 at 8:58 PM
How does the gay swing voter see it?
thomasaur on February 24, 2010 at 8:58 PM
Jesse Jackson? Are you serious?
There are many others you could have identified as charismatic and pure (Jesse is as pure as snow on a Manhattan street) but unelectable. To go with Jesse (“I’ll cut his nuts off!”) for the comparison is sort of f#cked up.
neurosculptor on February 24, 2010 at 9:00 PM
When did the filter start letting the word gay through? Will it allow the ‘l’ word for female gays now, too?
OmahaConservative on February 24, 2010 at 9:01 PM
He’s my fallback option if Palin either doesn’t run or does run but fails to win the nomination. I don’t think these polls mean squat though. We know she’s gotta sell herself to independents and moderates, but I don’t understand why people think that’ll be so difficult. Hillary was able to do it and she was just about the most divisive political figure in the nation not named Bush.
Doughboy on February 24, 2010 at 9:02 PM
If Crist runs as an Indie…that’s fine. Why do we conservatives always have to threaten it. If the RINOs don’t like the direction of the party they can easily create their own party.
SouthernGent on February 24, 2010 at 9:02 PM
The “swing voters” preferred McCain in the 2008 Republican primaries. How’d that work out?
ncborn on February 24, 2010 at 9:02 PM
That is the best paragraph demonstrating the stupidity and insanity of our political class and the elections they live for. Oh well. Palin is so extreme that the most moderate independent picked her for his running mate. Her toxicity is “proved” in NY-23, but is somehow an asset in AZ. And yet Romney endorses McCain to show distance from Palin, who also endorsed the candidate he‘s endorsing. Someone could make millions if they could figure out an algorithm that assigns units of value to each candidate in terms of “moderate” and “conservative”. Then set up a website that lists each candidate and the “currency” each has. That way our politics could then completely sink into the “pog” trading that 6th graders with pokemon cards engage in after school’s out. Long live the republic. Hey look a manifesto!
Weight of Glory on February 24, 2010 at 9:02 PM
I am a he and I find Palin very alarming, Enox and also I hate socialism and our little president man unrhetorically.
Team R since President Bush went away is deeply uninspiring I think. Romney? How desperately sad. This man pines for the presidency like Madonna pines for an Oscar.
It’s unseemly.
happyfeet on February 24, 2010 at 9:04 PM
I’d pull a lever for Romney. Mittens needs to get out there and really, no *really* start scuffin’ some dudes up though. I know you love him AP, but don’t let him do the 3yr waltz in there without thickening his skin up a bit.
Love. Hurts. Sometimes.
ted c on February 24, 2010 at 9:04 PM
Howdy Karl!
happyfeet on February 24, 2010 at 9:04 PM
Interesting electability perspective here folks:
http://www.conservatives4palin.com/2010/02/time-magazine-but-can-palin-be-elected.html
SheetAnchor on February 24, 2010 at 9:05 PM
But, AP–if the left is saying “Go Romney” then get the heck away from him.
Next please.
ted c on February 24, 2010 at 9:05 PM
I don’t think Palin could win. But come on, comparing her to that race pimp? Even for Allah, that is low.
angryed on February 24, 2010 at 9:06 PM
And GLOBAL WARMING IS REAL!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
canopfor on February 24, 2010 at 9:07 PM
Mhm.
Tell me, are you:
1) Concerned?
2) Christian?
Sorry, not buying it. Concerned troll is concerned, and very obvious.
Enoxo on February 24, 2010 at 9:07 PM
Juxtaposing Sarah with that hustler is like putting Ed Morrissey up against Keith Olberman…..
Comparisons.
ted c on February 24, 2010 at 9:08 PM
Please go back to Canada.
angryed on February 24, 2010 at 9:09 PM
Palin/Romney or Romney/Palin ticket. That’s the 2012 ticket right there.
Dr Evil on February 24, 2010 at 9:10 PM
Damn it. For all the bluster and hyperventilating over the tea party candidates making third party runs, it’s the incumbents and party hacks that we have to worry about. Anyone think that McVain would run as an independent if Hayworth kicks his but in the primary? I have no doubt.
conservnut on February 24, 2010 at 9:10 PM
It is a Canadian troll. Their spelling always gives them away eventually.
angryed on February 24, 2010 at 9:10 PM
IF Romney is doing this to show his, ahem, “moderate” cred., then he should be prepared for those wonderfully faithful, principled, and pragmatic moderate independents to head for the high grass should he make a move that spooks them. After all, if years of mavericky maverickness isn’t enough to keep even the likes of Buckley on your side, then what’s the point?
Weight of Glory on February 24, 2010 at 9:10 PM
AP, you are really working hard at getting cussed tonight aren’t you?
conservnut on February 24, 2010 at 9:11 PM
Palin has no chance to be president. Her being a moron is obvious to 75% of the country.
Romney, Mitch Daniels, Jindal, Pawlenty..all much better options.
therightwinger on February 24, 2010 at 9:12 PM
Romney = GHWB 2.0. No thanks. Not even if he puts on a flannel shirt and starts scarfing pork rinds.
Rocks on February 24, 2010 at 9:14 PM
He’s a troll because he doesn’t like Palin?
DaveS on February 24, 2010 at 9:14 PM
As much of a Sarah fan as I am, I’ll keep her out of the discussion. I doubt if she is a contender (not her time), but Romney??? Pul-eeze the 2008 retreads ain’t gonna cut the mustard.
I’m reminded of the horse breeding business (sigh, a lifetime ago). You can think that the yet-to-be-born foal is going to be a world beater, and you “nominate” (meaning spend a boatload of $)him/her/it for a future race or other competition (conformation, pleasure, reining, lots o’ choices).
These are called, “futurities.” (Meaning you don’t have a flippin clue whether you are spending this money on a yet-to-be-born three legged, four-eyed, snaggle-toothed nag or a world beater).
Who are the nominees for the 2012 “Futurity?” I have a feeling the field is (to further the analogy), as yet to be born.
How much has changed in a year? We were disspirited, disheartened and dissarrayed. Now, we are energized…not quite yet united…not quite yet focused, but if I may regress back to the ’70s…”We’ve come a long way, Baby.”
Chewy the Lab on February 24, 2010 at 9:15 PM
Wait a minute….Gay Posts….Romney Posts…..swingers….Is Mitt gay?
Rocks on February 24, 2010 at 9:16 PM
Isn’t “independence” grand? All you have to do is be a crappy politician, piss a lot of people off, poll poorly in a primary, and then say, “Hey! I don’t suck, I’m an independent. I bow to no man!” Best part is, since you don’t identify yourself as a “tea party” candidate you don’t have to deal with the outrage of the republican establishment. Win win.
Weight of Glory on February 24, 2010 at 9:16 PM
Dudes! PPP is a Dem outfit. Why do you take their words as gospel 2 years out? I can understand Rasmussen and Gallup which are more reputable. Even w/ those polls, it’s way too early to predict 2012 (even 2010 midterm predictions are changing daily).
There will be a gazillion polls between now and the 2012 primaries (most are manipulated to create narratives as anyone who studies statistics or sociology will tell you). This is getting tiresome.
When the primaries get here, the candidates will get their chance to GOTV, debate and campaign. Iowa and New Hampshire results will be better indicators.
sarahpalinfan99 on February 24, 2010 at 9:16 PM
Look,the Marxist Socialist Media has already picked the 2012 Republican nominee,and its Ron Paul!!(sarc)
I like Mitt,I did like McCain,I used to like Huckabee,
but its now,not about purity,its about new blood,and
fresh and excited new candidates!!
37% for the right
34% for the left
and 29% are clueless,er undecided!!
With zero done,20 Trillion in debt,and Obama still
doesn’t get it,me thinks those are wishful thinking
numbers!!
And SarahCuda is adored and loved by the right,and yet in every poll,shes last!!
canopfor on February 24, 2010 at 9:17 PM
DEMINT ’12 !!!
jaime on February 24, 2010 at 9:17 PM
No, happyfeet is a liberal troll because of his numerous comments in a variety of topics. Try searching hotair.com on Google for his username to see the idiotic comments.
Enoxo on February 24, 2010 at 9:17 PM
consider the source……who shall remain nameless …*llah*undit.//
ted c on February 24, 2010 at 9:18 PM
Its a political reality that you have to win the independents in order to win elections.
Ronald Reagan was able to not only win the independent voters but also win many democrats as well.
Romney is electable because the economy is the main concern right now and that is a concern that isn’t just on the conservatives mind but independents and some liberals as well.
Romney did well among independents in the 2008 primaries and would do well again among independents in 2012.
Mitt might be able to clinch the GOP nomination unless there is another agreement to screw Romney out of winning a state like Huckabee and McCain did in West Virginia.
Conservative Samizdat on February 24, 2010 at 9:18 PM
Hey, there’s one who’s been low under the radar but definitely a strong backed conservative.
Yeahh… nice choic.e
ted c on February 24, 2010 at 9:19 PM
Seriously, where is Romney on the healthcare debate? Palin has been front and center since the death panel’s fbook post.
deidre on February 24, 2010 at 9:19 PM
NO!
Never took a first look.
katy on February 24, 2010 at 9:19 PM
Yep!
neurosculptor on February 24, 2010 at 9:19 PM
I love Sarah, but Romney has always been my first choice. We need a leader with his common sense and business experience.
Of course, at this point, anything can happen. A lot cn happen to the field of candidates between now and 2012.
Star20 on February 24, 2010 at 9:20 PM
Where have you been? That’s the #1 definition for troll.
thomasaur on February 24, 2010 at 9:20 PM
Crist won’t run as an indy. He’s been a Republican for far too long. If Rubio wins this year, look for Romney/Rubio. A solid ticket.
TimTebowSavesAmerica on February 24, 2010 at 9:20 PM
Romney and Crist need to understand the the mood of the Republican voters is to get rid of the RINO’s…I don’t think McCain will win in AZ either…
CCRWM on February 24, 2010 at 9:22 PM
Playing it safe and staying out of the discussion. That does not endear him to me. I fact he is staying out of a lot of discussions for fear of rocking his political boat. I can’t admire pols who play it safe.
conservnut on February 24, 2010 at 9:22 PM
Didn’t we just try a ticket with a RINO at the top and conservative at the bottom? How’s that one working out?
OmahaConservative on February 24, 2010 at 9:23 PM
Would you tell Ronald Reagan not to run again in 1980 because he was a 1976 retread?
I don’t think so. Just because someone has ran before doesn’t mean they can’t run again. If Reagan did it, so can other Republican contenders.
Conservative Samizdat on February 24, 2010 at 9:23 PM
I don’t think he’s that man. I would like for him to be more vocal against ObamaCare, but he hasn’t. I’m not even sure he has talked about it that often.
deidre on February 24, 2010 at 9:23 PM
the whole am I a troll am I not a troll conversation is unbearably meta I think
happyfeet on February 24, 2010 at 9:23 PM
Right.
And the same types of folks told us that McCain was moderate enough to woo swing voters in 2008.
Can we stop letting the left tell us who they prefer to beat in a presidential race?
powerpro on February 24, 2010 at 9:23 PM
Exactly..where is Romney on healthcare takeover? Afghanistan? Jobs? Iraq? Dollar devaluation ? On freedom? On liberty?
It appears to me that Romney is waiting in the wings for his anointing—looking at his watch—playing it cautious and making kings like Scott Brown. He’s certainly keeping his powder dry and his ship in port. Meanwhile, the battle is raging out at sea.
I will have a really hard time supporting Mitt unless he starts showing some backbone and no more of this hiding behind someone’s skirt…..oh yeah…. PALIN’s.
At the same time—Jim DeMint is doing the heavy lifting in the Senate no thanks to most of his compadres.
ted c on February 24, 2010 at 9:24 PM
I notice that lately in a lot of the threads Allah finds way to hook in Palin…is that for hits? wouldn’t it be ironic if Palin ends up being the one who gets him paid his Salem salary?
CCRWM on February 24, 2010 at 9:24 PM
There’s only one problem with Romney, and it begins with his name and ends with Care. In a volatile electorate that is 73% against Obamacare, they’re not going to vote for someone who enacted the same thing in Massachusetts.
Okay, I lied, that’s not the only problem with Romney. He waffles on every position that he approaches, and has taken both sides of each issue at some point in his political career.
I voted for Romney in the 2008 Primaries over McCain–I don’t want him, nor would I vote for him, in 2010.
Enoxo on February 24, 2010 at 9:24 PM
I think AP is pretty full of irony after the events of the last 2-3 wks…. :o
ted c on February 24, 2010 at 9:26 PM
Crist will not run as an independent if he ever wants to run for President.
entropent on February 24, 2010 at 9:27 PM
I don’t know if you can make that comparison. Reagan came back in 1980 after almost defeating the incumbent for the nomination in 76. He was always the odds on favorite for 80.
conservnut on February 24, 2010 at 9:27 PM
If Romney was a leader, he would be leading right now, stating how Obama’s agenda is killing this country.
deidre on February 24, 2010 at 9:27 PM
Did Romney even need to endorse someone in this race? I assume he did it to ensure McCain will campaign for him in 2012 (although it’d be weird to have the loser of the previous campaign talking you up to voters).
darii on February 24, 2010 at 9:27 PM
…time for the GOP to get some new contenders, then…the old ones are beginning to get a bit shopworn….
Puritan1648 on February 24, 2010 at 9:27 PM
Demint endorsed Romney in 2008. Just sayin.
therightwinger on February 24, 2010 at 9:28 PM
Loompaland is not part of the US, so he’s DQ’d automatically.
ted c on February 24, 2010 at 9:28 PM
Palin is down against Obama by only 7 points in this same PPP poll. How is that “unelectable”? Is there some reason why she can’t make up 7 points?
Jon0815 on February 24, 2010 at 9:28 PM
…every poll that Allah posts…his are from left wing sites mostly…if you go to Conservatives4Palin.com they have other polls and state polls and ..shock! she leads in them…
CCRWM on February 24, 2010 at 9:29 PM
How much has changed in a year? We were disspirited, disheartened and dissarrayed. Now, we are energized…not quite yet united…not quite yet focused, but if I may regress back to the ’70s…”We’ve come a long way, Baby.”
Chewy the Lab on February 24, 2010 at 9:15 PM
Chewy the Lab: The SarahCuda Army,has mobilized Divisions
on stand by,ready,and waiting!!:)
Oh,Chewy,enjoy!!:)
========================================
cowboys herding cats
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Pk7yqlTMvp8
canopfor on February 24, 2010 at 9:29 PM
Yeppers. It’s one thing to have your name leading in the polls, it’s another to have your mug out there and actually leading where it counts. Kinda like…..yeah, Palin—again, out in the mix and scuffing it up.
ted c on February 24, 2010 at 9:29 PM
Sooo … Romney was a “Mr. Conservative” last race and this race he’s gonna be “Mr. Moderate”? But he was already that before the last race before he flipped “conservative” and before he was a moderate he was a “conservative”?
POLITICAL VERTIGO.
Think the voters will buy it?
hehe … nope!
HondaV65 on February 24, 2010 at 9:29 PM
Did you see Romney’s speech at CPAC? Awesome.
jaime on February 24, 2010 at 9:30 PM
Read the content of what I said, Sparky.
My point was it is completely premature to say who will be/should be the nominee, today, in Feb. 2010…look how much has changed in a year. How much is going to change in the next two.
Cheeze Louise, back off Buster!
Chewy the Lab on February 24, 2010 at 9:30 PM
I endorsed Romney too in 2008; however, I don’t think he’s the one to lead us during this time or else he would be speaking out more. His leadership skills are not inspiring me whatsoever as he hasn’t shown any during this time.
deidre on February 24, 2010 at 9:31 PM
…what? And have all and sundry come crashing down on him for being uncivil! Perish the thought!
…politics long ago ceased to be “the art of the possible”…with the last few crops of stiffs striving to get their postumous portraits on postage stamps it’s become “the art of the pusillanimous”….
Puritan1648 on February 24, 2010 at 9:31 PM
Yeah, remember that Scott Brown guy who ran against the new SEN from MA, Martina Coakley—the one who took Ted Kennedy’s seat, yeah, he was down like 30 points in NOV/DEC and could never overcome that either…..
/
ted c on February 24, 2010 at 9:31 PM
We’re definitely energized but the the wind is going to come right out of the sails if the GOP floats a Nixonian Republican for a nominee in 2012.
HondaV65 on February 24, 2010 at 9:31 PM
katy on February 24, 2010 at 9:31 PM
What’s needed is a sitting governor with strong conservative credentials and proven leadership skills.
OmahaConservative on February 24, 2010 at 9:32 PM
No, Sarah comes out on top in many polls but Hot Air seems to post mainly polls where she does poorly for some reason. Sarah often is #1 on Intrade (where the “smart money” is).
She hasn’t announced a POTUS run yet and we are 2 years out. Remember Obama and McCain 2 years out were not the polling favorites yet both won. I believe Giuliani and Clinton topped the polls before the 2008 primaries.
The real test for 2012 will be the candidate’s campaign, their GOTV and debate performance(that’s how Scott Brown came from way behind to beat Coakley). All else is just a lot of hot air (sorry for the pun).
sarahpalinfan99 on February 24, 2010 at 9:32 PM
LMAO!
entropent on February 24, 2010 at 9:32 PM
good fixit katy. agree.
ted c on February 24, 2010 at 9:32 PM
Romney blew $150 million trying to get nominated. That shows no common sense and no business acumen right there.
Emperor Norton on February 24, 2010 at 9:33 PM
Yep, saw it. Wasn’t that inspired. He hasn’t been impressing me. I still haven’t heard a good “excuse” for Romneycare.
deidre on February 24, 2010 at 9:33 PM
Bottom line? Realpolitik might keep your tax bill lower going forward but it doesn’t mean anything to Levin, Beck, Rush or Hannity. They’re worth millions. Purity won’t pay the bills folks.
AYNBLAND on February 24, 2010 at 9:33 PM
yes…that is why it was discussed for days after…s/
CCRWM on February 24, 2010 at 9:34 PM
…anyone can give a speech…OK, anyone but “W” can give a speech…Obama can give the hell out of a speech…he just doesn’t mean any of it…if he were horizontal and had the services of a teleprompter, he’d fake sincerity that would do a Nevada hooker proud!
…what’s he organized lately?
Puritan1648 on February 24, 2010 at 9:34 PM
I reject the notion that we have to accept this triumvirate of losers(Palin, Romney, Huckabee)as our 2012 candidates.
Isn’t this the same incestuous mindset that gave us McCain and Bob Dole?
Let’s put these nags out to pasture and look for some fresh talent.
David2.0 on February 24, 2010 at 9:35 PM
By the way if you want a good read, here’s TIME on Reagan’s chances before the 1980 election. Same as it ever was.
Weight of Glory on February 24, 2010 at 9:35 PM
Do you really want to know who is presidential timber?
Bob McDonnell. Governor, Virginia.
Folks, this guy is a heckuva leader–as is his AG and LTGOV. They are doing well here in VA. AG Cuccinelli is throwing brushback pitches at the administration over healthcare and cap and trade. McDonnell is taking hard steps toward balancing the states budget that is $4bill in the red right now.
ted c on February 24, 2010 at 9:35 PM
Your family chased you out of the room so you thought that you would drop by HotAir so we could hate you too?
thomasaur on February 24, 2010 at 9:36 PM
Don’t use the acronymn ROFLMAO often, but did you know I posted the exact same link earlier?
Chewy the Lab on February 24, 2010 at 9:36 PM
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