PPP poll: Romney polls best with “swing voters” among top GOP contenders
posted at 8:50 pm on February 24, 2010 by Allahpundit
At last, an explanation for the McCain endorsement?
Our national poll last week found that 37% of voters were definitely planning to go Republican this year and 34% were definitely planning to support Democrats- that leaves 29% of the electorate up for grabs- who are those swing voters?
The voters who will determine the balance of control for the next Congress are a pretty Democratic leaning group- 62% voted for Barack Obama last year while 36% voted for John McCain. They only approve of Obama by a 52/37 margin though. The fact that his disapproval and the support McCain received from them is basically the same indicates that Obama hasn’t really lost any of these voters yet. But the drop from 62% who voted for him to 52% who now approve of him does suggest a lot of them haven’t really decided whether they think he’s a good President or not…
Although this has little immediate relevance the divide between how these voters see Mitt Romney and Mike Huckabee vs. Sarah Palin is pretty remarkable. Romney has a positive 39/24 favorability spread and Huckabee’s is 32/22. But Palin’s is 27/57! Republican candidates are going to be a lot better off coming across as Romney like than Palinesque this fall.
I’m having a hard time squaring that 62/36 split for Obama in 2008 among this year’s “swing voters” with the alarms being sounded about a Republican tsunami. Granted, the group may lean Democratic only slightly, but if they’re the deciding factor in the midterms and Obama has a +15 approval rating among them even now, how “slight” can it be? And how can that translate into things looking as grim for the Dems as they currently do? If you believe PPP, a Democrat like Kendrick Meek should be reasonably tight with Crist and, especially, Rubio in a purple state like Florida. The actual numbers: Crist 48, Meek 32, and Rubio 51, Meek 31. The “Palinesque” candidate, who’s on his way to a romp in the primary, actually fares better in a swing state than a center-right incumbent. Go figure.
That said, as counterintuitive as it may seem, the guy who got creamed by Obama two years ago among swing voters may retain a certain mavericky brand cachet with them. If centrists are as down on a “true conservative” like Palin as PPP claims, then the best way to signal to them that you’re not like her may be to snuggle up to — irony of ironies — her running mate. This is going to be a weird, weird race. Exit question: Is Sarahcuda the new … Jesse Jackson? Charismatic! Pure! And, maybe, unelectable?
Update: Hmmmmmmmmm.









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I like Romney, and I’ll vote for him (unless Dick Cheney runs). But he’s no Reagan. I really don’t see any grand “vision thing.” I haven’t heard him warning about the dangers of our insane fiscal policy, which is my number one priority. But then, he hasn’t formally announced yet.
entropent on February 24, 2010 at 9:37 PM
Dude has the charisma of a brick…and yes, Romneycare is the 800 lbs gorilla on his back…and he hasn’t even bother to drape a blanket over it.
AUINSC on February 24, 2010 at 9:39 PM
When does Ed come back from vaca? The usual schedule is much more tolerable. Love AP, but in small doses.
conservative pilgrim on February 24, 2010 at 9:39 PM
…Republican “front runner” after Republican “front runner”, faux-conservative after newly-minted constitutionalist, my eyes spin and my stomach churns…and the same phrase keeps popping up in my head:
“As appetizing as cat food.”
Sure, you can eat it…but how hungry have you gotta be?
Puritan1648 on February 24, 2010 at 9:39 PM
So true! Polls schmolls! Let everyone throw their hat in 2012 and we’ll all see who’s got the better game!
sarahpalinfan99 on February 24, 2010 at 9:39 PM
Chewy,
My dad was HUGE into the horses, I mean to a fault. As a kid I had to help him with stats and charts and whatever so he could get that edge he was forever searching for. I learned a lot about the industry, most of which I have forgotten.
My dad passed away about ten years ago, broke as ever. I wasn’t there, but no doubt there was a Racing Form in his lap. Anyway, thanks for bringing back memories.
ConservativeTony on February 24, 2010 at 9:42 PM
I’m generally in the trenches early, pounding precincts, registering voters, working phones, shuttling riders in need, going to rally’s, etc. etc. etc. for primaries and general elections, but I really cannot see getting my ass up off the couch for Romney.
I’d vote for him over 0, but campaign/work my ass off for him?
Nah, not so much…
OmahaConservative on February 24, 2010 at 9:43 PM
Why the obsession with Romney? I don’t see where the excitement comes from? Am I missing something?
He comes across as great Chief Executive material but not Presidential.
Crux Australis on February 24, 2010 at 9:43 PM
deidre on February 24, 2010 at 9:23 PM
katy on February 24, 2010 at 9:31 PM
I didn’t say Romney was perfect. He’s not. Neither is Palin, Huckabee, or any other conservative candidate. All of them are better than any Democrat, whether the Democrat is a moderate, or a today’s more typical; marxist/socialist.
Like I said, a lot can happen between now and 2012. Somebody who embodies MOST conservative principles, will emerge who can win the next election.
Star20 on February 24, 2010 at 9:43 PM
Read the words you wrote, then watch the video here.
I didn’t find Romney on youtube, so it’s three parts halfway down the page.
jaime on February 24, 2010 at 9:46 PM
I just fear another McCain type Republican Presidential candidate.
mobydutch on February 24, 2010 at 9:47 PM
I’d like to save this, for its tidily representative vacuity.
The giveaway line. This isn’t a poll — it’s campaign advice from democrats. And what lovely liberal liberty they take conflating what they regard as Palin’s personal unpopularity as a potential 2012 candidate TODAY with conservative positions Republicans might take in the midterm elections. And what exactly is the hideously repellant “Palinesque” model as opposed to what is Romney-like? Individual empowerment to make your own medical decisions vs. Romneycare? Yeah, that sounds like a loser.
Who’s falling for this rubbish?
rrpjr on February 24, 2010 at 9:47 PM
Romney=McCain 2.0? We are so screwed.
RedRedRice on February 24, 2010 at 9:48 PM
He’s better than the other GOP candidates. Sarah Palin is a joke. Mike Huckabee is soft on crime. Nobody knows who Tim Pawlenty is. And John McCain is too old.
SoulGlo on February 24, 2010 at 9:49 PM
Yes. A lot can happen between now and then. However… don’t be fooled by Romney. Perhaps he can take a position in the new admin to help turn things back to a free market base but President?
He is a phony. His positions change from year to year, month to month depending on what’s polling well.
He’s part of the GOP cabal. THAT… is exactly what this country is going to vote out in 2010.
katy on February 24, 2010 at 9:51 PM
I’ll re-ask the question…
Where is Romney on Obamacare?
The day before the Summit Dog-n-Pony show, and still no word from Romney?
And, yet, the “joke”, “unintellectual”, “moron” Governor Palin has this:
Enoxo on February 24, 2010 at 9:52 PM
I am glad I don’t have to watch and listen the American MSM in Australia. It is leading America down the path to destruction.
The Australian MSM isn’t any better either.
Crux Australis on February 24, 2010 at 9:54 PM
lulz
I’m just getting ready to walk out the door and I’m trying to do two things at once.
Here.
jaime on February 24, 2010 at 9:55 PM
I always wonder the same thing with Huckabee… it’s a conspiracy
CCRWM on February 24, 2010 at 9:56 PM
Tony, I didn’t mean to dredge up bad memories…or maybe not? Couldn’t tell from your post.
My family was also very horsey, but not the race variety. We raised quarter horses and paints. Showed them, but it was more a hobby, not something our family relied on for income.
Horses are way too rich for my blood. Kind of prefer to put groceries on the table, which is why I now have my labs (sublimating I think you call it.).
Anyway, you get what I’m talking about regarding futurities, right?
Chewy the Lab on February 24, 2010 at 9:57 PM
Yeah, she is obviously afraid of taking a stand on an issue.
:)
conservnut on February 24, 2010 at 9:58 PM
Throwing a cat among the pigeons, par for the course for you AP.
technopeasant on February 24, 2010 at 9:58 PM
Let’s not do the same old thing, i.e., nominate the runnerup from the last election. What’s so great about Romney? As far as I’m concerned, he’s wearing the Mass. care (looks like Obamacare) millstone around his neck.
Can we have some competition, please? Pawlenty, Mitch Daniels, any others? Forget Sarah. I like her but she’s a no go in 2012. She can be a kingmaker, though.
chris999 on February 24, 2010 at 10:03 PM
9th look at Mittens? ……. mmmmm
Nope, him still a RINO GOP machine choice
A vote for him would be yet another Lesser of two Evils election!!!
Aren’t we all tired of that?
PappyD61 on February 24, 2010 at 10:03 PM
PappyD61 on February 24, 2010 at 10:03 PM
Got any suggestions?
chris999 on February 24, 2010 at 10:04 PM
Well… I know several “swing voters” who were all set to vote for McCain/Palin until Couric did her “dumb as a post” interviews with Sarah P. The fickleness of the swingers was revealed. The swing voters may support Romney now, but wait until the election when the Dems start harping on the holy underwear and other Mormon eccentricities. Things will change quickly.
Kalifornia Kafir on February 24, 2010 at 10:05 PM
You can take this to the bank-it will either be Romney or Palin in 2012. If you choose one or another you have a 50% chance of being correct.
technopeasant on February 24, 2010 at 10:05 PM
Perfume on a pig.
AWESOME. :)
powerpro on February 24, 2010 at 10:08 PM
Pawlenty is Milt Milquetoast. The GOP needs someone who, unlike McCain, will punch Obama in the mouth and who, unlike McCain, can actually speak knowledgeably about economic matters. Daniels may have some appeal.
Out of the establishment candidates, Romney, despite Romneycare, at a minimum exudes competence which others–and Obama–don’t.
BuckeyeSam on February 24, 2010 at 10:09 PM
Kalifornia Kafir on February 24, 2010 at 10:05 PM
That’s why we desperately need some “new material”. The GOP has got to stop being so hidebound and unimaginative.
chris999 on February 24, 2010 at 10:09 PM
Heh. My dad wasn’t into horses. I doubt if he ever seen one outside the track. He into how fast they ran, how muddy the track was, his trifecta pay-off, etc. And he used racing to “put food on the table” or to “take it off” is more apt.
Still, the memories are fond. Again, thank you
btw, I did understand the “futurities” angle.
ConservativeTony on February 24, 2010 at 10:12 PM
BuckeyeSam on February 24, 2010 at 10:09 PM
Good point about Romney. I just wish he would show us that he’s seen the error of his ways on new entitlements. There is no doubt he’s an extremely smart and capable guy from his years in the private sector.
chris999 on February 24, 2010 at 10:12 PM
No matter what good qualities Romney has, there is still the problem that he is a wimp. McCain slapped him around repeatedly during the 2008 primary campaign.
There is no solution to this problem.
Really Right on February 24, 2010 at 10:20 PM
Chris999 consider this from http://www.Conservatives4Palin.com Via James Lewis at Pajamas Media:
CCRWM on February 24, 2010 at 10:26 PM
Romney? LOL!!!! Swing voters. He can’t get anywhere without the evangelicals. Plus, by the time he finishes changing positions, no one will know where he stands. I’ll stick with Palin. If Cheney runs, Palin should be his VP. That’s the only man she should let head another ticket. They’ll be devastating. Cheney will devastate Obama in debates while Palin will do the same to Biden.
SilentWatcher on February 24, 2010 at 10:27 PM
“Romney’s the GOP’s only realistic shot at unseating Obama because he can pull in those moderates and independents.” God this crap is so predictable. And it’s over a year early, to boot.
ddrintn on February 24, 2010 at 10:28 PM
As they say, “the bottom line.”
rrpjr on February 24, 2010 at 10:30 PM
True.
Mitt Romney reminds me more of Dole than McCain. Result will be the same.
ddrintn on February 24, 2010 at 10:32 PM
Polls 2 1/2 years before the election?
They are great predictors of results, just ask Presidet Hillary Clinton or President Guiliani. They led the polls right up until the actual voting started in the 2008 primaries.
PappyD61 on February 24, 2010 at 10:32 PM
I just don’t know where else to go. Never on Huck. I like Palin, but she just repulses too many independents who can’t even see her as the lesser of two evils when compared to Obama.
I wish there were someone special in the pipeline, but I don’t see it. Now that I think of it, maybe we could draft Jeb Bush.
I want an executive. I like people like Ryan, Pence, Thune, and the like, but I don’t want a legislator. That said, you know who’s really good on his feet–at least with regard to healthcare–a senator from Wyoming (Barrasso, I think). He’s an MD, and he’s very knowledgeable.
Anyone is better than Obama because he sucks. But I’m not an independent. We’ll see how independents feel in a year when the economy is still drifting because Obama hasn’t eliminated “regime uncertainty” and hasn’t assured us that he’ll avoid “regime worsening.”
BuckeyeSam on February 24, 2010 at 10:33 PM
Good LORD no!!! You know how you win independents? Quit picking candidates to satisfy independents.
ddrintn on February 24, 2010 at 10:34 PM
“Quit picking candidates to satisfy independents.”
Mega dittoes. Let’s not go down that road. Again.
No-Newt, McCain, Mitt, Huck, Fred, TPaw, Scott B.
Yes-Jim DeMint, Tom Coburn, Jeff Sessions
Maybe-Sarah, Michelle B., Rudy
My two cents.
ncjetsfan on February 24, 2010 at 10:40 PM
He’s a leader because he gave a speech at CPAC. I guess that means Pawlenty’s a leader too!!
deidre on February 24, 2010 at 10:59 PM
Those “independents” who think Barack Obama is the “lesser of two evils” when it comes to Palin are not “independent”. They are brainwashed fools who believe everything the media tells them. They do no “independent” thinking or research. They are lazyasses who do not deserve to live in a republic.
atheling on February 24, 2010 at 11:12 PM
Why I think Palin can win: Those “independents” who won’t vote for Palin will not vote for Obama. They will sit at home, just like they did when Reagan ran against Carter.
Obama lost the independents. They are dead set against Obamacare and if he rams this down our throats and continues spending us into ruination, they will NOT re-elect him.
And if you like Palin, roll up your sleeves and work to gently inform those “independents” who are disillusioned with Obama to take a second, fresh look at her.
atheling on February 24, 2010 at 11:18 PM
Me likes your picks… except for Rudy.
PrincipledPilgrim on February 24, 2010 at 11:19 PM
Romney is a moderate and a progressive. He is wooden and has no courage.
Sarah will defeat him in the primary if she runs. Then, from there it is simply beating zero.
Outside of Sarah, there is only one conservative in the existing government that can be trusted and that is Jim DeMint.
Only two people we have on our side who would even try to REDUCE federal spending from its out of control ways.
You fools who want Romney at POTUS don’t understand that he is not a conserative and it would only confirm what Beck is warning us about.
And if Rush is for Mitt some day in the future, he can go jump in a lake.
Sapwolf on February 24, 2010 at 11:35 PM
Well, the independents and moderates were never supposed to vote for Reagan, either.
ddrintn on February 24, 2010 at 11:36 PM
Are you stupid? (don’t answer, it’s obvious)
Come one, Sarah is more qualified than any of the other yahoos being bandied about as POTUS material.
She’s got two decades worth of EXECUTIVE leadership experience. And unlike the others, her leadership brought nothing but POSITIVE results.
Sarah doesn’t have anything as idiotic as RomneyCare on her resume she has to hide from.
Sarah DOES have on her resume the negotiation of the largest construction project in North American history. A deal negotiated with the largest corporations in their field, in the world, as well as the nation of Canada.
People like to tout Romney turning around the Olympics, and yeah, that’s BIG, but Sarah’s natural gas pipeline is nothing less than awe inspiring. Others had been trying to do this since Alaska has been a state (1959) It took Sarah only 2 years to get it done.
Again, Sarah has more REAL WORLD experience than all of the other cats out there.
Plus Sarah is a LEADER. She is totally unafraid to get out there and mix it up. The rest are not. The rest are calculating cowards. Not leaders.
You think a guy who was part of RomneyCare has common sense?
Sarah is the very definition of common sense. One would have to be a complete and total idiot not to see that, and not to back her to the fullest.
We are at war, and she fights!
gary4205 on February 24, 2010 at 11:54 PM
That’s right. He fired up the base, while Carter had totally demoralized his. Moderates and independents sat home because they couldn’t bring themselves to vote for Carter again and they didn’t trust Reagan. He was seen as a stupid, half-senile bumpkin from a small town, from what I recall. My parents were lifelong yellow dog democrats, and they couldn’t even vote for Carter for a second term. (They finally left the Donk party when Dukakis rode in a tank.)
Turnout was low, but President Reagan sure had a lot of hardcore supporters that carried the day. And after two years of his first term, he had my support too. I liked to kid my parents that I saw Reagan for who he was before they did, lol.
atheling on February 25, 2010 at 12:01 AM
How about kicking him in the nuts instead:
She has been doing this for a solid year. She is the ONLY one who is doing it. In fact, one of the reasons she stepped down as Governor was to kick the living hell out Obama and the communists!
What the heck more do you want?
gary4205 on February 25, 2010 at 12:04 AM
The President can perfume this proposal however he wants, but it still doesn’t pass the smell test. Washington should listen to Americans now, or Washington will hear us in November.
– Sarah Palin
She has been doing this for a solid year. She is the ONLY one who is doing it. In fact, one of the reasons she stepped down as Governor was to kick the living hell out Obama and the communists!
What the heck more do you want?
gary4205 on February 25, 2010 at 12:04 AM
Sarahcuda!
“Let’s Roll”
On Watch on February 25, 2010 at 12:36 AM
Ah, the new HA Romney Love Fest continues unabated.
I’m puzzled why PPP finds it notable that a left-leaning group of swing voters prefer Romney over Palin. Duh. If you asked me to choose between Dr. Utopia and Hillary, guess what my answer would be? These people are choosing the lesser of what they perceive to be two evils. They still favor Obama by a 15 point margin. I doubt there’s any danger of these folks sweeping Mittens into office. In balance it’s pretty well-documented in other polls (including some of PPPs) that most of the disaffected O voters from 2008 are moving to the right, and the further they move in that direction, the better Palin is going to look. Barry just needs to keep plowing ahead with his agenda of doom and people will be
to pull the level for Sarahcuda come 2012.
NoLeftTurn on February 25, 2010 at 12:59 AM
I think Romney learned his lesson in the last election. Screw Iowa! Win New Hampshire!
Romney – Rubio 2012!
joncoltonis on February 25, 2010 at 1:29 AM
There is no way Mitt would win he has no base. the center is not a base. The center changes their vote more often than most people change their socks. Mitt can not win.
unseen on February 25, 2010 at 3:15 AM
So much delusion about Palin. Especially from atheling, whose contempt for independent voters cannot be contained.
The insults just keep coming. We’re dumb. Fickle. Don’t do our research. I presume because we are incapable of grasping the incomparable awesomeness of the Goddess Sarah.
I don’t mind if you think she is The Second Coming. Knock yourselves out. But I’ll continue to hope the Republicans come up with a credible candidate. I can’t bear to think of Barack Obama, Part Deux.
No way Mitt can win? Dunno. I think it depends on the economy at that point, and how hungry the voters are for someone with a business background.
He’s preferable to Palin. Anyone would be. Palin can’t win.
Meredith on February 25, 2010 at 4:03 AM
I’m for Mitt.
scotash on February 25, 2010 at 4:56 AM
So much delusion about Palin. Especially from atheling, whose contempt for independent voters cannot be contained.
The insults just keep coming. We’re dumb. Fickle. Don’t do our research. I presume because we are incapable of grasping the incomparable awesomeness of the Goddess Sarah.
I don’t mind if you think she is The Second Coming. Knock yourselves out. But I’ll continue to hope the Republicans come up with a credible candidate.
Meredith on February 25, 2010 at 4:03 AM
+1000
rjl1999 on February 25, 2010 at 5:15 AM
While I strongly believe that it is much too early to start knocking potential GOP 2012 Presidential candidates out of consideration, I do believe Romney has the burden of proof to show how his Romneycare could not be used as a fatal albatross.
Additionally, it would sure be nice to hear him waffle less (a shimmy to the middle, a pander to the right…wears thin after awhile, especially after Prez Sez-A-does-B).
I’m not holding my breath.
Lockstein13 on February 25, 2010 at 6:40 AM
Time for the sheeple to read “Rendezvous with Destiny.”
Romney = George H. W. Bush
Obama = Carter
Indies flocked to Reagan
Hillary Democrats = Reagan Democrats
The media bashed Reagan also. According to them he was a dunce with an education from an inferior college and nothing but a B actor.
Reagan’s radio addresses = Palin’s facebook posts.
Reagan waited to declare that he was a candidate.
Reagan campaigned for others.
Palin wins. Get used to it. It’s President Sarah Palin.
Fact: Governor Perry is kicking butt for 1 reason, SARAH PALIN.
Allah is an Eeoyre.
Jayrae on February 25, 2010 at 6:58 AM
It’s too soon, and the smear job on Palin was too thorough. She’s got some major digging out to do yet. However, Romney is sort of one of those, “oh, he’s not dangerous” names.
Personally, I think he’ll have a very hard time distinguishing himself from Obama.
AnninCA on February 25, 2010 at 7:36 AM
Or a likely scenario is that Palin throws her hat into the ring. Romney squeaks out the primary win. Romney fails to inspire anyone, particularly, to vote. Independents have a poor turnout, since they aren’t really THAT mad at Obama now that the GOP is more in charge of Congress.
And Palin revises her public opinion through serious debating throughout the primary.
Romney loses, of course. Obama is reelected. And Palin is set up for the next run.
AnninCA on February 25, 2010 at 7:40 AM
You cannot tear remove the officious parts of government, which is 90% of it at this point, from the POTUS seat. You can from Congress and that requires hard, hard work. A POTUS can get in the way, but can’t stop a majority large enough to over-ride vetos if the Congress starts dissolving out things like Dept. of Ed/Ag/Energy. That must be from the legislative… the executive can help the process, or hinder it, but not stop it if that is the will of the people expressed through Congress. A Congressional direction for a two year orderly shut-down and removal plan has to be executed if passed by Congress for any of these extra agencies and departments.
The executive is CinC of the Armies and the Navies, Head of Government, Head of State and Pardoner of last resort. That has the veto power over the legislative branch which can be over-ridden. If you want change top-down, then you will forever be disappointed as your leaders show themselves to be stymied and less than able against the legislative… just look at Obama with his autocratic tendancies and being unable to deal with his own supporters and party members.
Change is bottom-up, when it comes top-down that is authoritarianism and do not admire that on the left nor the right. You want to starve the beast of government? Get a Congress in that will start starving it, stop feeding it, and repeal legislation that created it. A helpful President is nice, not necessary. A Congress frightened out of its wits if it TRIES to expand government is necessary and not nice, but gets you there. Stop pushing ‘National Plans’ at the people: the people are the Nation and the government only protects the people and the Nation, it does not foster niceness or goodness but gets the hell out of the way of the people. I get hives at a ‘National Healthcare Market’ mandated by Congress as that gives the federal government control, oversight and regulatory authority over that market… which is, strangely enough, just what ‘the other side’ WANTS. Stop that: good government does not create but gets out of the way for the people to create for THEMSELVES. If you think that, say it, then act out on that and mean it.
Honor
Do as you Say.
Say what you Mean.
Mean what you Do.
It is just that simple.
ajacksonian on February 25, 2010 at 7:44 AM
Looks like the left is going o pick the republican candidate again, just like they did in ’08.
This is my worst nightmare coming true.
Dave R. on February 25, 2010 at 9:09 AM
“There is no doubt he’s an extremely smart and capable guy from his years in the private sector.”
Which is where he should stay.
Obama would annihilate him in the general election in anything less than 1932 conditions.
ebrown2 on February 25, 2010 at 9:25 AM
Well I’m glad to see a Palin supporter actually admit she screwed up. See, honesty isn’t that hard guys.
Nobody cares about the stupid magical underwear though. If anything, the Dems will push the history of racial problems with Mormons.
Speedwagon82 on February 25, 2010 at 11:04 AM
Romney? Swing Voters picking Republican candidates? Manifestos? heh. heh. heh. Good one AllahPundit. You’re getting funnier since the buyout.
Sultry Beauty on February 25, 2010 at 12:54 PM
The problem with swing voters, is precisely the fact that they swing. With 2012 still being 2 1/2 years away, it really doesn’t matter how swing voters feel now. It will change by then. Count on it.
MarkTheGreat on February 25, 2010 at 1:21 PM
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