Cantor, Stupak: Pelosi’s 15 votes short of passing ObamaCare; Update: Boehner calls on Dems to invite Stupak to summit

posted at 1:54 pm on February 24, 2010 by Allahpundit

Actually, as you’ll see, Stupak says it may be more like “15 to 20.” Cantor’s head count of likely no’s this time around via the Daily Caller:

He estimates that House Democrats will likely only be able to attract 202 votes out of the 255-member caucus, 15 votes below the 217-vote threshold they need to pass the bill…

But a House Democratic leadership aide responded Wednesday to Cantor, saying he was “assuming the president’s proposal is a final bill.”…

On the abortion issue, here are the key lawmakers who voted for the House bill in November that Cantor says will not vote for the president’s proposal:

1. Cao, Anh (LA)
2. Costello, Jerry (IL)
3. Dahlkemper, Kathy (PA)
4. Donnelly, Joe (IN)
5. Driehaus, Steve (OH)
6. Ellsworth, Brad (IN)
7. Kaptur, Marcy (OH)
8. Kildee, Dale (MI)
9. Lipinski, Dan (IL)
10. Oberstar, Jim (MN)
11. Stupak, Bart (MI)
12. Wilson, Charlie (OH)

He’s got several others pegged as possible no’s in protest of the Senate’s use of reconciliation. NBC is keeping hope alive, noting that Blue Dogs who voted no on the House bill last time because it had a public option and raised taxes may be wooed by Obama’s more “moderate bill.” But that assumes that (a) no progressives will walk away from Obama because he didn’t include a public option, and (b) that the political risk to Blue Dogs in voting yes now is the same as, or even less than, the risk they faced when voting on Pelosi’s bill in November, which of course is insane. In fact, Jason Altmire, one of the Blue Dogs whom NBC cites as a potential flip, told the AP that he’s highly skeptical that there are enough votes to pass anything. The nightmare for The One is that any Democrat, left or center, who’s eager to find an excuse to not vote for this thing can find something in the compromise bill to latch onto as a “dealbreaker.” And that being so, given the current political climate, why would anyone think Pelosi’s likely to get more people flipping yes than flipping no?

As for the sudden burst of enthusiasm among Senate moderates for reconciliation, that’s an even bigger bluff than the recent revival of public option fee-vah. If you’re Blanche Lincoln or Ben Nelson or Mary Landrieu, why on earth would you commit to reconciliation until you knew for sure that Pelosi had the votes to sneak the Senate bill through the House? You’d be accepting a fantastic political risk — a toxic procedural bypass — with the prospect of absolutely no reward. Exit quotation from an unnamed House Democrat who voted for Pelosi’s bill: “This is a career-ending vote.”


Update: Very clever. A nice play by Boehner to turn the cameras tomorrow on dissension with the Democrats’ own ranks:

On February 8, House Republican Whip Eric Cantor (R-VA) and I wrote a letter to your chief of staff, Mr. Emanuel, posing a number of questions about the proposed February 25 summit. Among the questions we asked was whether congressional Democrats who are opposed to the House or Senate versions of the health care bill would be invited to participate in the summit. As of this writing, Mr. Emanuel has not responded to our letter, and the Democratic leadership in the House has not indicated any plans to include such members in the delegations they are sending to Blair House.

I write today to respectfully ask that you invite Rep. Stupak to participate in the February 25 health care summit so that the will of the American people – and that of a bipartisan majority in the House – on the critical issue of life will be appropriately represented during the discussion.


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Oh yeah, I’m pretty convinced they don’t have the votes.

That’s why I’ve been wondering why the GOP is honking about the summit.

This is absolutely, as Rove suggested, the time to push forth GOP solutions.

It would do a lot to undo the negative image that the GOP doesn’t want ANY type of reform. That’s not a selling idea, either.

AnninCA on February 24, 2010 at 1:57 PM

This statement demonstrates an absolute misunderstanding how politics is played. The chum in the water right now is the Dhimmy bill of which the electoarate has been in a rapacious feeding frenzy on like so many pirahna since last summer. Not particularily the smartest time to dip ones toe to test the waters.

When your opponent appears obsessed with hanging himself is not a time to start hoarding rope to oneself.

Positioning 101 would dictate to continue riling the waters to encourage the frenzy and watch the Dhim’s flail about. After the PR stunt runs through the media cycle slowly start to roll out the Rep plan in bits and pieces never offering a full meal for opponents to sink their teeth into and provide them the means to go on offense. Provide just enough focus group tested fodder to ride the wave to 11/4/10.

After the election when you hopefully have a majority in one or both houses, fill in the blanks with a complete test plan to be implented over time so as to not frighten the electorate. This plan should be fully developed and demonstrably be shown to either reduce costs, the budget and preferably both. Then as the Dhims are still reeling from the results of the election introduce and pass your plan and send it to the President’s desk to await his signature.

This is pretty much what they did after the ’08 election with the stim bill and the Rep’s were still to disoriented to mount resistance. Throw the same tactics right back at them and let Obama be the “obstructionist” if he dares to veto it.

Politics ain’t bean-bag Ann, you have to play the game for keeps.

Archimedes on February 24, 2010 at 3:25 PM

Yor self control is admirable! OK, I’ll be good too.

katy the mean old lady on February 24, 2010 at 3:23 PM

I don’t want to fall victim to the ban-hammer…

ladyingray on February 24, 2010 at 3:26 PM

The part that simply isn’t going to fly is what I thought: It’s the mandate without a public option.

Voters are going to be absolutely livid being pushed into private plans that are awful, and they will be awful.

It’s a complete fiasco.

AnninCA on February 24, 2010 at 2:15 PM

But we’d be thrilled to get pushed into a government plan that is even more awful?

Your logic is breathtaking.

uknowmorethanme on February 24, 2010 at 3:27 PM

DC weather forecast for tomorrow. I hope someone makes Algore and global warming jokes.

Wethal on February 24, 2010 at 3:10 PM

Ed, is that you?

(old LGF joke)

DrW on February 24, 2010 at 3:27 PM

It’s a complete fiasco.

AnninCA on February 24, 2010 at 2:15 PM

Like the majority of your posts.

OmahaConservative on February 24, 2010 at 3:29 PM

Your logic is breathtaking.

uknowmorethanme on February 24, 2010 at 3:27 PM

That’s Ann…logical.

ladyingray on February 24, 2010 at 3:30 PM

Don’t count on Dipsh*t Donnelly. If he can find a way to clamp his lips around Ob+ama’s “bill” he will do so as long as he thinks it won’t hurt his reelection chances. I’d rather have a courageous “no” vote than a cowering one. Donnelly is scum and needs to be skimmed off the congressional pond.

SKYFOX on February 24, 2010 at 3:34 PM

You really don’t do a lot of thinking, do you?

ladyingray on February 24, 2010 at 3:17 PM

\

chuckle

publiuspen on February 24, 2010 at 3:35 PM

MAN OH MAN! I wish we could run an open thread tomorrow. I have to work and can’t watch…

Boehner gives me a bit of hope every now and again. This is the Alinsky rule regarding agitation and deflection.

I hope everyone around the Dallas area can make it to the TP 1 year anniversary celebration. Stephen Crowder and Alphonzo Rachel will be there (Pajamas Media geniuses).
Alas, Olby won’t be in attendance – he’s obviously a chicken. Probably scared of all the lily white people. /s Loser.

Yellowdog12 on February 24, 2010 at 3:36 PM

As John Stossel pointed out, it isn’t that so many Americans don’t have medical insurance, but it is that 80% of them do have it… it was a perk once meant for the executives of a corporation, but became something the federal government subsidized during WWII to get older workers to come back to the work place. A few of whom had retired with Social Security, enacted just a few years before…the war ended, the tax breaks didn’t.

We got the perks of the rich and now find we must pay the cost of the rich, who could afford such perks. Why are we surprised?

On the bright side there are a few conditions that the government absolutely can cure… it’s for your own good of course.

ajacksonian on February 24, 2010 at 3:42 PM

Update: Boehner calls on Dems to invite Stupak to summit

I like. I hope it happens. Make it happen, Rahm!

Abby Adams on February 24, 2010 at 3:50 PM

Thats’m some good work right there Boehner!

I think we’re makin progre

Oh, wait its’ a bird its’ a plane

Oh damn its’ John McCain,

I certainly hope John doesn’t have it in his head,

To polish up his bi-partisan creds!

Thursday and Friday would be a magnificent day for JD Hayworth to do an internet money bomb so we can decide who we want in the Senate and see exactly where John stands, with conservatives or with his “good friends” across the isle!

dhunter on February 24, 2010 at 3:52 PM

Boehner missed a real opportunity here. The Republicans could have invited Stupak to attend with them!

Reaching across the aisle to include those that are being ignored by their own party. Whose bipartisan now!

OBQuiet on February 24, 2010 at 4:11 PM

dhunter on February 24, 2010 at 3:52 PM

Johnny Mac is not going bipartisan. Take that to the bank. He is up for reelection this year. And he will be the most conservative candidate you can find right now. After the elections The Maverick will be back.

antisocial on February 24, 2010 at 4:14 PM

antisocial on February 24, 2010 at 4:14 PM

Just makin sure, tryin to hold the old panderers feet to the fire! I full well know what a turncoat he can be!

dhunter on February 24, 2010 at 4:20 PM

Bring ambulamps.

Cybergeezer on February 24, 2010 at 4:40 PM

Blanche Lincoln, Ben Nelson and Mary Landrieu already have blood indelibly imprinted on their hands from the cloture vote.

It’s way too late in the game for them to successfully distance themselves from this tarbaby if it passes.

Even if it doesn’t, the cloture vote will likely cost at least 2 (and very possibly all) of them their Senate seats.

molonlabe28 on February 24, 2010 at 5:27 PM

Will he be holding a stake?

mojo on February 24, 2010 at 5:52 PM

Just got this from Ryan in an email looks like he is going

House Budget Committee Ranking Republican Paul Ryan (WI) made the following statement upon receiving an invitation from House Republican Leader John Boehner (OH) to participate in the Administration’s “Health Care Summit”:

“I appreciate the invitation and look forward to sharing common-sense solutions on fixing what’s broken in health care. I share the concerns of many Americans that tomorrow’s summit will be staged more about showmanship than true bipartisanship. While the cameras roll at the health care summit, we’re told the Majority continues to meet in secret, cutting deals behind closed doors to jam a government-takeover through Congress.

“I hope that’s not the case. I hope we can have a sincere discussion tomorrow – focusing on reforms that actually lower health care costs, instead of exploding our already unsustainable debt and piling more tax hikes on the American people. I stand ready to continue to advance solutions that fix what’s broken in health care, without breaking what’s working. We should scrap this massive bill and start over.”

Brat4life on February 24, 2010 at 6:12 PM

Update: Boehner calls on Dems to invite Stupak to summit

STFU, Boehner.

neurosculptor on February 24, 2010 at 6:16 PM

Just up on Fox Pinnochio declined to invite Stupak but invited Olympia Snowe who declined and said thats’ now how the rules were set up her leadership picks who goes not Pinnochio!
Good For Olympia maybe she heard the Scott heard round the world even if the Demorats are deaf.

Pinnochio tried to call Boehners’ Stupak and raise him a Snowe.

dhunter on February 24, 2010 at 6:30 PM

highhopes on February 24, 2010 at 2:44 PM

I like your idea!!!! I say, a round of Kool-aid for all of them.

yoda on February 24, 2010 at 6:31 PM

I read that Obama is attempting to invite his mole, Snowe, to his healthcare kabuki.

rplat on February 24, 2010 at 6:55 PM

Boehner missed a real opportunity here. The Republicans could have invited Stupak to attend with them!

Reaching across the aisle to include those that are being ignored by their own party. Whose bipartisan now!

OBQuiet on February 24, 2010 at 4:11 PM

Stupak would have to announce a change in parties to get away with accepting that invitation unscathed.

Here’s what I find amazing. With an issue so complex as healthcare reform, how lucky we are that we have only the best and brightest in our Congress to get together and discuss the issues in an objective rational way without having to call in a single “outside expert” to deal with all the tricky issues involved. Lucky us.

highhopes on February 24, 2010 at 7:09 PM

Boehner missed a real opportunity here. The Republicans could have invited Stupak to attend with them!

OBQuiet on February 24, 2010 at 4:11 PM

Yes … just friggin’ great. Now, Boehner thinks he’s one of the organizers of this jaw-droppingly stupid fiasco, whose only purpose is to resuscitate zombie legislation that America WANTS DEAD!

Sheesh.

neurosculptor on February 24, 2010 at 7:11 PM

neurosculptor on February 24, 2010 at 7:11 PM

The administration needs to announce another one of their patented hard pivots. Announce that they are going to table healthcare to work on national security issues. Then, about this time next month….. It’s healthcare time again!

highhopes on February 24, 2010 at 7:22 PM

highhopes on February 24, 2010 at 7:22 PM

You understand Indonesian Imbeciles and treasonous dems pretty well. It’s sad that we have all had to become experts in abnormal psychology and the motivations of suicide bombers.

neurosculptor on February 24, 2010 at 7:37 PM

Okay, so here’s the thing.

Stupak, the way we pronounce it, always makes me think it is some Yiddish slang for the male appendage.

And, the “Stupak Amendment” just cracks me up.

I know, this is way serious. But, damn.

rogersnowden on February 24, 2010 at 7:56 PM

I say that the meeting tomorrow is going to go well for the Repubs and not so well for Obumble.

justltl on February 24, 2010 at 8:12 PM

Dick Morris just called Obamacare “Euthanasia” on O’Reilly just now! He thinks Dems will be forced to walk plank unless voters put fear of God into them. Start calling, faxing, etc. the swing Dems listed at Morris’ website!

I remember some lady from Wasilla warning about Death Panels months ago. Could it be Sarah was right after all and is way ahead of the Beltway Boys? ;)

sarahpalinfan99 on February 24, 2010 at 8:36 PM

justltl on February 24, 2010 at 8:12 PM
LOL!!

txmomof6 on February 24, 2010 at 9:00 PM

HuffPost covers how the Federal Reserve financed Saddam and Watergate

Professor Bob Auerbach of the Lyndon B. Johnson School of Public Affairs at the University of Texas at Austin (and an economist at the House Financial Services Committee for eleven years assisting in oversight of the Federal Reserve) brought these issues to light in a book published by a university press:

In Deception and Abuse at the Fed, Robert Auerbach, a former banking committee investigator, recounts major instances of Fed mismanagement and abuse of power that were exposed by Rep. Gonzalez, including:

* Blocking Congress and the public from holding powerful Fed officials accountable by falsely declaring–for 17 years–it had no transcripts of its meetings;
* Manipulating the stock and bond markets in 1994 under cover of a preemptive strike against inflation;
* Allowing 5.5 billion to be sent to Saddam Hussein from a small Atlanta branch of a foreign bank–the result of faulty bank examination practices by the Fed;
* Stonewalling Congressional investigations and misleading the Washington Post about the6,300 found on the Watergate burglars.

Spathi on February 24, 2010 at 9:44 PM

Keep in mind, this is an act of desperation by Obama. He never would have called this ‘meeting’ a few months ago.

I initially thought this was a winner for Obama, but when one acts on desperation, one tends to lose…big time.

I predict now that this is a death nail in the administration’s agenda.

Mark my words.

tatersalad on February 24, 2010 at 10:36 PM

“This is a career-ending vote”

Yep. Being an election-year, the Dems will be forced to hold town hall meetings. Let the youtube cameras roll…

TN Mom on February 24, 2010 at 11:24 PM

Obama has opened his party’s (Democrat) closed door meetings for C-Span. He will attend with a closed mind…

Waterloo.

TN Mom on February 25, 2010 at 12:07 AM

Republican health care plans all 70 of them

Dasher on February 25, 2010 at 12:35 AM

* Blocking Congress and the public from holding powerful Fed officials accountable by falsely declaring–for 17 years–it had no transcripts of its meetings;

I wasn’t aware that congress read anything anyway.

Allowing 5.5 billion to be sent to Saddam Hussein from a small Atlanta branch of a foreign bank–the result of faulty bank examination practices by the Fed;

Dead issue

Stonewalling Congressional investigations and misleading the Washington Post about the 6,300 found on the Watergate burglars.

6300 is chump change compared to Timothy baby. No wonder they got caught they were smart enough to ask for a lot more.

chemman on February 25, 2010 at 1:01 AM

chemman on February 25, 2010 at 1:01 AM

were = weren’t

chemman on February 25, 2010 at 1:02 AM

I love what Newt said on Hannity last night:

McConnell and Boehner should ask for equal time today. If they get it, explain to the American people what they Republicans proposed. If they don’t–WALK OUT en masse.

I hope and pray they do it. With 75% of the public on their side, the time is now. Yes, a minority of folks might see it as partisan, but a good many more will gain respect for the GOP.

Grace_is_sufficient on February 25, 2010 at 5:28 AM

McConnell and Boehner should ask for equal time today. If they get it, explain to the American people what they Republicans proposed. If they don’t–WALK OUT en masse.

Grace_is_sufficient on February 25, 2010 at 5:28 AM

Newt also emphasized hit the major talking points over and over again. I don’t think a walk out is productive BUT what I think they should do is relay their message and if the filthy lying coward in the White House is just putting on a show, they thank the bastard for his time and adjourn because there really isn’t anything more to be said.

highhopes on February 25, 2010 at 6:51 AM

Grace_is_sufficient on February 25, 2010 at 5:28 AM
highhopes on February 25, 2010 at 6:51 AM

I hope they wheel the Democrat’s 3000 page monster in on a dollie and then place the Republican’s plan on the table, demand equal time, demand a follow-up, show that no pork is in the the Republican’s plan, and then walk out one-by-one. Just my wish. ( :

yoda on February 25, 2010 at 7:11 AM

OT
On F&F….Gretchen delivered a right punch to Robert Gibb’s glass chin. Pow!!!!

yoda on February 25, 2010 at 7:42 AM

I hope they wheel the Democrat’s 3000 page monster in on a dollie and then place the Republican’s plan on the table, demand equal time, demand a follow-up, show that no pork is in the the Republican’s plan, and then walk out one-by-one. Just my wish. ( :

yoda on February 25, 2010 at 7:11 AM

I like the idea of wheeling in the House/Senate/White House version. They should take it a step further and ask questions such as “how do you intend to enforce the provisions you propose in sub-paragraph 3d. of subsection 20 of Chapter 11.” I want that deer-in-the-headlights look on their faces as it becomes clear that even the authors of this legislation have no clue what is in the bill that they so claim is so vital for uninsured Americans.

highhopes on February 25, 2010 at 8:02 AM

highhopes on February 24, 2010 at 7:09 PM

It wouldn’t be about Stupak attending. It would be about inviting him to attend. It is the gesture. And if he declined, all the better. It would highlight the Dems exclusion of voices.

If we must have theater, lets have some that is interesting!

OBQuiet on February 25, 2010 at 8:22 AM

highhopes on February 24, 2010 at 7:09 PM

Forgot to comment on your “No Experts allowed” point. Very true. Even the States that will have to carry this didn’t get a voice. No Governors either.

Just the select Olympians commanding from Mt. Washington

OBQuiet on February 25, 2010 at 8:25 AM

I like the idea of wheeling in the House/Senate/White House version. They should take it a step further and ask questions such as “how do you intend to enforce the provisions you propose in sub-paragraph 3d. of subsection 20 of Chapter 11.” I want that deer-in-the-headlights look on their faces as it becomes clear that even the authors of this legislation have no clue what is in the bill that they so claim is so vital for uninsured Americans.
highhopes on February 25, 2010 at 8:02 AM

I just fear that the Democrats are better poker players than the Republicans and already have the hand that is going to be rammed down our throats. The administration is banking everything on this plan and are willing to throw everything at the Republicans. I too would like to see the Republicans ask about specific items in the Dems bill just to see them squirm while they explain their plan, because they can’t.

yoda on February 25, 2010 at 8:34 AM

The four major problems with the current plan:

1) the general sense that it is meant to undermine the insurance system rather than bolster it.
2) No tort reform
3) use of the Medicare money (that really doesn’t exist) to pay for it
4) the iron clad use of the Medical Advisory board to reduce cost by denying procedures (although this is intentionally left vague)
vs
the outlying years will bankrupt the country.

This paradox in 4), pointed to by Palin, has been brushed over intentionally. It’s sort of equivalent to giving your power of attoney to a poor relative who inherits more money if you die faster.

J_Crater on February 25, 2010 at 8:42 AM

Another note to self re: 2012

Support a candidate who will not allow the Dems to get away with telling him/her to STFU.

jay12 on February 25, 2010 at 3:20 PM

Campaign contributions have plummeted for Cao since his vote for and he will face stiff opposition in November from the Dems. He votes with and his career is over, even though it is likely going to be over anyway.

Kermit on February 25, 2010 at 8:23 PM

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