Oh my: Student poll analysis of midterms shows GOP might pick up … 60 seats

posted at 8:42 pm on February 23, 2010 by Allahpundit

I confess to not having read this guy’s blog before, but (a) his sidebar resume is certainly respectable and (b) he’s taken seriously enough by Jonathan Chait to have earned a post today at TNR showcasing his glorious, glorious results.

The standard “anything can happen before November” caveat applies, but between this and Charlie Cook’s warning last week, we’re slowly moving from a “can the GOP take back the House?” reality to a “how many more seats than the Dems will the GOP end up with?” reality. Here’s where things stand on the Great Liberal Realignment of 2008:

The generic House ballot is tilting to Republicans in ways not seen… ever. Or as Michael Barone put it, the Republican margin currently seen is “historically unprecedented”. To those unfamiliar with the generic ballot, it is the question asked on national surveys that goes something like this “If the elections for Congress were being held today, which party’s candidate would you vote for in your Congressional district?” I have often (in my own head) questioned the usefulness of the generic ballot because House elections are held in districts not nationally, and surveys are only getting at most a few respondents from each district for each survey. But the fact of the matter is that vast majority of research indicates (see Charles Franklin, Matthew Shugart, and the Pew Research Center among others) that if you properly use the results from the question, you can get a pretty good idea of what is going to happen…

How will the generic ballot results from 2010 at this point translate into vote in the general election? Based off the Bafumi et al. regression (see page 6), we would expect Republicans to win the national vote by anywhere from 7.3% (all polls but Rasmussen and Republican pollsters) to 9.3% (all polls), which extends well beyond the root-mean-sqaured error. Thus, I have a hard time believing based off the polling that the Democrats will win the national party House vote…

With current polling in conjunction with Bafumi et al.’s paper predicting a Republican national vote between 53.6% and 54.7%, the Republicans could easily gain 50-60 seats from their current 178. Gains of greater than 60 seats also look quite possible. Even in the best case scenario for the Democrats, it would seem that holding the House would be very, very difficult.

No less a figure than Bill Clinton admitted to Fox News(!) that things are starting to feel a bit like 1994 before qualifying it by saying that he thinks the Dems can still avert disaster. Which may be true: I can think of one surefire way to bleed enough votes from the GOP that 20 or so weakened House Democrats might squeak through. The DCCC’s hard at work on the idea already, in fact, rolling out a new website just this morning dedicated to sowing discord in the conservative ranks. Behold, my friends … the Palin primaries.


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Here’s something dramatic Allahpundit might like

FontanaConservative on February 23, 2010 at 10:17 PM

happyfeet on February 23, 2010 at 8:47 PM

Lame attempt at a put-down, junior high at best.
Do you hang out with proudrino?

mad scientist on February 23, 2010 at 10:19 PM

here’s a clue:

ABC Consumer Comfort Index Drops To -50..something like 4 points above the worst ever.

Conference Board Confidence Index drops from from 56 to 46 (that big of a drop is bad)

Obama wants to talk more about healthcare reform

r keller on February 23, 2010 at 10:19 PM

WARNING……START LOWERING EXPECTATIONS!!!!

The last thing people need to be thinking about winning is about the GOP winning all 435 seats in the House this fall (give or take 435).

We need to bat this kind of talk down, it’s a setup. Think about it…..the media sets the bar so high that ANYTHING LESS THAN 435 seats for the GOP will be showcased as “vindication of the President’s agenda”.

By the way………..anyone think there might be another “crisis” right before the November elections? Something along the lines of say a 50 seat swing towards the Dems? Would those be jobs that Obama saved?

PappyD61 on February 23, 2010 at 10:25 PM

r keller on February 23, 2010 at 10:19 PM

ABC should know a little something about lack of comfort. They’re restructuring their news department, and getting ready to cut jobs. Of course their high dollar anchors won’t redistribute their wealth either, to save a few jobs, whose families rely on that paycheck. Ala Katie Couric.

Funny how it takes Katie to have $14 million a year, to read the news, when I’d bet there are hundreds, if not thousands of eager journalists who’d do it for less than a million…and do it just as well.

capejasmine on February 23, 2010 at 10:26 PM

Conference Board Confidence Index drops from from 56 to 46 (that big of a drop is bad)

r keller on February 23, 2010 at 10:19 PM

Going to hell in a hand basket this fast requires jet assist.

Yoop on February 23, 2010 at 10:26 PM

Shit meet fan.

jukin on February 23, 2010 at 10:29 PM

For those of you that need a reminder of what we’re facing out there….

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=TptsP4ryido


A nation of Julios.

PappyD61 on February 23, 2010 at 10:31 PM

A nation of Julios.

PappyD61 on February 23, 2010 at 10:31 PM

Rather than encourage the kid and tell him to improve himself and his situation notice how Pinnochio immediately went into full pander mode and told him what freebees Pinnochio had to give the kid.

THAT IS WHAT WE ARE UP AGAINST!

The willingness to spend your and my hard earned dollars for a free loader lookin to gobermint for handouts!
a Truely Despicable Community Organizer

dhunter on February 23, 2010 at 10:48 PM

That was no chipmunk; that was a Waxman imitator.

Dhuka on February 23, 2010 at 11:33 PM

Palin Primaries? How desperate can you get?

didymus on February 24, 2010 at 12:49 AM

lovingmyUSA you’re so mean with your scathing scathingness… I’m not even a liberal. I’m from Texas.

happyfeet on February 23, 2010 at 9:31 PM

Oh my…Not a native, for sure. Austin or Huston?

gary4205 on February 24, 2010 at 1:48 AM

Not Humpbot…BUT.

gary4205 on February 24, 2010 at 1:58 AM

That was no chipmunk; that was a Waxman imitator.

Dhuka on February 23, 2010 at 11:33 PM

Nostrils aren’t big enough.

/gotta give allahpundit credit though, he knows how to wield a dramatic chipmunk.

rayra on February 24, 2010 at 2:57 AM

I live in a michigan suburb. Blue collar Democratic. Half the area is out of work

The unprecedented thing about this Presidency is the total absence of the name ‘Obama’ in public conversation.

Howver if I press people it pours out like a river. They hate what he is doing, they don’t like the way he runs his Presidency, and they think they are getting screwed up down and sideways.

I keep bumping into people who could not get their homes refinanced under the Obama plan. I have met two who got their interest payments suspended for six months which made them even madder. People are so broke it is unreal. They want blood

Obama’s Townhalls are a flop. They heard all the same bs in the election

If they could pull a lever and flush everyone right now most would do it

entagor on February 24, 2010 at 3:14 AM

Aw, they’ve got the wink picture. Allah must love that.

Jaynie59 on February 24, 2010 at 7:53 AM

Woo hoo the GOP can take back the House and maybe Senate. And then, and then, and then, vote like Scott Brown in order to be bipartisan.

I can’t wait.

angryed on February 24, 2010 at 8:01 AM

A nation of Julios.

PappyD61 on February 23, 2010 at 10:31 PM

That’s the whole end of the Democrat agenda: to make the people of this nation wards of the State. It’s a rebirth of feudalism.

spmat on February 24, 2010 at 9:43 AM

Y’know, I’ve argued for a long time that one ought not criminalize policy differences, but I admit that every now and then I think of a GOP Congress, and I think of Lisa Jackson and Eric Holder spending every minute of their waking lives testifying under subpoena, and I get the giggles.

JEM on February 24, 2010 at 10:55 AM

The only was this poll/study would have merit is to ask the question – and analize the data – on a district by district basis to see which Rep held seats are solidly held and which Dem seats will flip (and viz versa).

No other poll matters.

krome on February 24, 2010 at 11:26 AM

How much of this economy stupid and how much is the Democrats are corrupt?

Because if we think the economy is going to get dramatically better the minute the Republicans take power in the congress, we are wrong.

It’s the economy stupid is the best political advise ever given a politician.

Obama should and will take some blame but… it may be softened if both parties are in power.

Of course no one seems to remember who had control of congress during the melt down of the last two Bush years… but Republicans always get blamed so we can’t expect fair treatment.

I hope some one is thinking far enough ahead to make some dent in this dismal economy as soon as Republican take control.

petunia on February 24, 2010 at 12:22 PM

Man I wish I could proof read!…. My posts should come with a warning that mind reading is required.

petunia on February 24, 2010 at 12:24 PM

No one is this dumb. Perhaps Obama has a new strategy. Push through Obamacare; take a really bad hit in November 2010. Then run against the “do nothing evil Republicans” for the next 4 years, with a perfect excuse not to accomplish anything, while giving constant speeches (Obama’s fav position – no actual decision making is needed), and then re-capture Congress in 2012 for the final push to Utopia.

Fred 2 on February 24, 2010 at 2:16 PM

Thats “the next 2 years”. Sorry.

Fred 2 on February 24, 2010 at 2:17 PM

I have been saying for the last 6mths 80 plus seats and i still stand by that.

thmcbb on February 24, 2010 at 2:23 PM

Why would Palin getting involved in contested primaries ruffle the feathers of conservatives? Conservatives are her base. Goes to show how tone deaf the Dems are about her. You might be able to make an argument that she should steer clear of contested primaries in typically blue or purplish districts/states (as she did with Brown in MA, and with Christie and McDonnell), but the NY-23 race wasn’t exactly deep red and her endorsement infused Hoffman’s campaign with enough momentum that it drove the phony RINO out of the race and generated a real nail biter of a contest between Hoffman and the Democrat.

Palin isn’t the idiot the left thinks she is. She is a shrewd politician with flawless political instincts. She knows which races to get involved in and which ones not to. These @ss clowns are taking a huge risk portraying these primaries as a referendum on Palin because they’re fixing to lose big regardless and associating her name with a big GOP sweep is hardly going to be a good thing for them come 2012.

NoLeftTurn on February 24, 2010 at 2:57 PM

Slightly OT, does anyone know how the recall efforts in the States that allow them are going? Thought I saw some folks attempting to throw some of the bums out now. No recall provision in my State.

riverrat10k on February 24, 2010 at 3:20 PM

So if the Democrats Socialists lose control of Congress in November will that be Bush’s fault?

Dick Turpin on February 24, 2010 at 4:39 PM

The elections in Virginia, New Jersey and Massachusetts bear this out. They weren’t even close.

tarpon on February 24, 2010 at 7:02 PM

I’ll believe it when I see it.

Dave R. on February 24, 2010 at 11:02 PM

Student study, eh? I bet the IPCC will use it in their next report.

DailyDanet on February 24, 2010 at 11:30 PM

I live in a michigan suburb. Blue collar Democratic. Half the area is out of work

The unprecedented thing about this Presidency is the total absence of the name ‘Obama’ in public conversation.

Howver if I press people it pours out like a river. They hate what he is doing, they don’t like the way he runs his Presidency, and they think they are getting screwed up down and sideways.

I keep bumping into people who could not get their homes refinanced under the Obama plan. I have met two who got their interest payments suspended for six months which made them even madder. People are so broke it is unreal. They want blood

Obama’s Townhalls are a flop. They heard all the same bs in the election

If they could pull a lever and flush everyone right now most would do it

entagor on February 24, 2010 at 3:14 AM

Promise everything and deliver nothing, the promised will be leading the charge to your ouster.

roy_batty on February 25, 2010 at 9:58 AM

You “optimists” need to remember something: there is still approximately 80% of the “stimulus fund” left. Why would that be? Because Obama will flood the states with “stimulus” a couple of months before November. The jobs situation will magically improve (doesn’t matter that it will be short term) and the Dems will harp on about their economic miracle.

Will the sheeple buy into it? I hope not. Someone get out their Magic 8-Ball and let me know.

Squiggy on February 26, 2010 at 6:51 AM

Comment pages: 1 2