More “unexpected” economic news
posted at 2:24 pm on February 12, 2010 by Ed Morrissey
Reuters breaks out its favorite economic adverb again today, this time in its headline on consumer confidence. American consumers turned more pessimistic than forecasters predicted, which has been more or less the “unexpected” norm in economic reporting (via Ace):
U.S. consumer sentiment slipped in early February, with high unemployment expected to continue and with most looking for no gain in income or home values in the year ahead, a survey released Friday showed.
The Reuters/University of Michigan Surveys of Consumers said its preliminary index of sentiment for February was 73.7, down from 74.4 in late January but up from 56.3 a year ago. …
eThe survey’s gauge of current economic conditions was 84.1 in early February, the highest since March 2008. It was up from 81.1 in late January and above the 81.4 predicted by analysts polled by Reuters.
But the survey’s barometer of consumer expectations dipped to 66.9, down from 70.1 in late January and short of the 70.9 forecast by analysts.
Between Reuters’ panel of economic forecasters and American consumers, I think I’ll take the latter. At least we don’t continually use some version of the word “unexpected” in the reporting, as we did with Reuters earlier this week with a hint of possible trouble ahead:
U.S. wholesale inventories unexpectedly fell 0.8 percent in December, while sales rose 0.8 percent, a government report showed on Tuesday.
Analysts polled by Reuters had expected inventories to rise 0.5 percent and sales to surge 1 percent. November’s inventories rise was revised up to 1.6 percent from the previously reported 1.5 percent, and the increase in sales was revised up to 3.6 percent from 3.3 percent.
Most of the fourth-quarter GDP growth got attributed to inventory management (3.5% of the 5.7% annualized rate), thanks to a faster-than-normal restocking rate. The sudden drop in December indicates that actual production tailed off at the end of the quarter. The slower sales growth from the previous month in what should have been a very busy holiday sales season also hints at weakness coming into 2010.
Consumers appear to have sensed that better than Reuters’ analysts. They also probably learned from the White House projections on job growth this week that any economic growth this year is likely to be modest, more like running in place than moving ahead. The next year doesn’t look much better. Anyone expecting stronger consumer confidence in the face of these numbers probably needs to rethink their assumptions.
Blowback
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Ok, at this point I’m convinced the AP and Reuters are both spambots. No human input required.
gwelf on February 12, 2010 at 2:25 PM
Every single time economic news comes out and Obama trumpets some kind of recovery, there is a revision at a later date that undercuts everything he says. I don’t remember that dynamic every before.
Join conservatives in an open forum at It’s About Freedom.
IronDioPriest on February 12, 2010 at 2:26 PM
Unprecedentedly unexpected.
rukiddingme on February 12, 2010 at 2:27 PM
All I know is that on Black Friday this year in Bismarck, there were still a lot of people running around, but with way fewer shopping bags.
I barely spent anything at all this last Christmas.
It just costs way too much.
Badger40 on February 12, 2010 at 2:27 PM
Why can’t Americans just get excited about all the green shoots?
BadgerHawk on February 12, 2010 at 2:28 PM
They’re polling Paul Krugman again.
mankai on February 12, 2010 at 2:28 PM
Every economic indicator that I have seen that has been revised, has been revised donward. Every single one.
Johnnyreb on February 12, 2010 at 2:29 PM
Unexpected by whom?
sheesh on February 12, 2010 at 2:30 PM
I, for one, expect things to get worse next month.
Greg Toombs on February 12, 2010 at 2:30 PM
Reuters needs to lay off the word “unexpectedly.” We only have a finite supply of that word, and right now we are at peak unexpectedly production, with declining production in the future. In short, we are running out of “unexpectedly”!
rbj on February 12, 2010 at 2:31 PM
If only we could see them; they’re covered by all that global warming evidence.
Doorgunner on February 12, 2010 at 2:31 PM
OT: Not that it was a big surprise, given the rumors about Stevens.
Wethal on February 12, 2010 at 2:31 PM
Just think of all the jobs that will be created when soup kitchens open up on every street corner in every big city. Someone’s got to serve that witches brew.
Biden …… “Stimulus working”
fogw on February 12, 2010 at 2:32 PM
But AP is reporting good news from January about consumers being more optimistic.
SouthernGent on February 12, 2010 at 2:33 PM
We have the most anti-business “administration” and Congress in history.
For a bonus, they have more power over our economic well-being than any administration in history.
Our economy will be in the ditch until Democrats are unceremoniously thrown out of office. Period.
NoDonkey on February 12, 2010 at 2:33 PM
President Obama, where are the jobs?
Old Fritz on February 12, 2010 at 2:34 PM
Let me be clear — there have been an unprecedented number of unexpected economic downturns this year, as I have always said.
Daggett on February 12, 2010 at 2:36 PM
There were plenty of jobs around when Billy Jeff was in the White House.
- Monica Lewinsky
fogw on February 12, 2010 at 2:37 PM
I think the economy will be in the ditch until we get the Fed Government out of the equation.
Face it, the Senate “Bipartisan” Jobs Bill they just negotiated is full of porky crap… and of course it was “blessed” by Obama.
Romeo13 on February 12, 2010 at 2:38 PM
When are we going to unexpectedly get inflation and subsequent stagflation? I think the economic conditions now point to a period of inflation without an increase in economic growth. Jimmah Carter we are coming back to you, “unexpectedly”.
hip shot on February 12, 2010 at 2:40 PM
Would it be okay to call it an Anthropogentic economic meltdown?
fourdeucer on February 12, 2010 at 2:40 PM
Romeo13 on February 12, 2010 at 2:38 PM
Fair point, but do you agree that this president and the current majorities in Congress are the most hostile to business in our nation’s history?
Who in their right mind would hire anyone extra with these loons in charge?
Who knows where these clowns will go next?
NoDonkey on February 12, 2010 at 2:41 PM
The science is settled and shows that when the donks took over congress in 2007:
Economic activity down.
Unemployment up.
Government spending up (way up).
Government deficits up (way up).
Direct. Correlation.
jukin on February 12, 2010 at 2:41 PM
and their biases.
+3
ted c on February 12, 2010 at 2:42 PM
Who is doing all this expecting and unexpecting anyway? I haven’t heard anyone predicting good news. So is it Reuters that is always expecting the unicorns to show themselves. Boy they really bought that toothfairy story didn’t they.
petunia on February 12, 2010 at 2:44 PM
Not to mention unexpectedly unprecedented.
justltl on February 12, 2010 at 2:46 PM
Our bi-polar government at work.
petunia on February 12, 2010 at 2:46 PM
petunia on February 12, 2010 at 2:44 PM
Can you imagine what the media would do if a Republican were in office now?
They’d start a new CNN just for all of the out of work sob stories they run. They ran stories like that when the unemployment rate was below 5% under President Bush.
Now no matter how bad the news gets, there’s always a little bit of optimism at the end.
I don’t recall any of that when the economy was vastly better under the Bush administration.
NoDonkey on February 12, 2010 at 2:47 PM
It’s fun to watch Barry grovelling before bankers declaring that he doesn’t mind their bonuses. No doubt when he invites them to the WH to remind them that he’s their best bud he will bow.
Someone once said, “It’s the economy, stupid!” Rings a bell.
BO does not and never will understand this. Even if he gets the drift he has no idea what to do, and his antipathy toward the private sector, i.e., capitalism, is so ingrained that he is incapable of triangulating as Clinton did.
Clinton knew how to be a survivor. Not sure BO can figure it out.
Cody1991 on February 12, 2010 at 2:50 PM
Don’t forget! Obama say that there will be 95,000 jobs created every month in 2010!
Yay.
Key West Reader on February 12, 2010 at 2:51 PM
I don’t think it is as much figuring it out how to survive than it is what will survive. BO said he’d rather be a great one-term president than a mediocre two-term president. He cares more for his agenda to survive than himself.
The captain will go down with the ship..rather than bailing he’ll be drilling holes.
shick on February 12, 2010 at 2:58 PM
10,000 jobs to go searching for the other 85,000 that are looking for the pot of gold over Obama’s rainbow.
Pie-in-the-sky.
ted c on February 12, 2010 at 2:58 PM
Oh, right….
Math isn’t his best subject. In fact, I’d like to know where he does excel. It isn’t history. It isn’t economics. It isn’t business. It isn’t Constitutional law. It isn’t public speaking, imho.
We need to produce a minimum of ~300,000 jobs per month over the next year to get back to where we were in the “horrible Bush years” (/s).
They’re lying as usual, but 95K is not enough even if it were true.
Cody1991 on February 12, 2010 at 3:00 PM
CNBC and FOX Business have been spending an increased amount of time talking about the coming Commercial real estate problems. That’s what the people don’t realize and the Gov’t won’t tell them. It’s a foreclosure BONANZA in the commercial market, and the residential market is about to go belly up all over again because foreclosures are increasing each and every month.
uknowmorethanme on February 12, 2010 at 3:02 PM
If your ‘analysts’ keep getting ‘unexpected’ results that differe from their expectations, then it is time to get new ‘analysts’ with a better track record.
Or use a dartboard, it has a higher accuracy rate.
ajacksonian on February 12, 2010 at 3:05 PM
So real GDP is somewhere south of 2.2% but we don’t really know because of all the accounting tricks they are using.
Anyone willing to bet its not really negative? Point to one area that actually has growth besides maybe liquor sales…
Please.
dogsoldier on February 12, 2010 at 3:07 PM
LOL +4 (would be +10, but times are tough. Thanks to the stimulus though, it’s 65 “pluses” saved or created!
rbj on February 12, 2010 at 3:07 PM
Yeah, you’re going a little deeper than I was going, but I don’t think he has the moxcy, the scrap, to turn his presidency around. Everything has been handed to him on a silver platter.
The criticism he’s receiving from all quarters will take its toll. He’s used to being petted and stroked. Guess he should have done a little more homework about the presidency before he galloped off to make fatuous speeches.
You know, the only thing this guy has going for him is a baritone voice. He is not a great orator. His vocabulary is limited as is his intellect.
Cody1991 on February 12, 2010 at 3:08 PM
You need a lesson in Dem/AGW logic:
1. The cold just proves the warming.
2. The pessimism just proves the growing consumer confidence;)
Laura in Maryland on February 12, 2010 at 3:08 PM
Do they not realize that we now EXPECT bad news? Give me a positive statistic that’s not guaranteed to be downgraded and then I’ll consider THAT to be unexpected.
Oink on February 12, 2010 at 3:08 PM
Clean up on monitor 5.
Laura in Maryland on February 12, 2010 at 3:10 PM
The economy is so much worse then they are reporting, I guess they don’t want to cause “panic”.
They think withholding knowledge helps us.
The irony is that it is so simple (although more difficult now then six months ago) to fix. If they weren’t tied to their political ideology, we would be coming out of this mess, instead I am afraid we are still “falling”.
right2bright on February 12, 2010 at 3:12 PM
We could have had Barry White instead.
Instead we got Barry Black and White.
NoDonkey on February 12, 2010 at 3:12 PM
Well, those jobs were entry level.
Aviator on February 12, 2010 at 3:14 PM
The only solution to fix the economy is to pass Healthcare ASAP/
Knucklehead on February 12, 2010 at 3:14 PM
One can only get so much multi-colored smoke blown up their a%s before the term “unexpected” totally looses all of its meaning…
Seven Percent Solution on February 12, 2010 at 3:16 PM
…and, I hate to say it, it was not that good when the Republicans controlled congress, or when Bush had the veto pen and refused to use it.
We are in this mess because of the lack of restraint for the past 12 years, and it is unbelievably poor leadership and decisions the past year, almost incomprehensible.
We don’t get this bad in one year, but this past year pushed us over the edge…we were brought to the edge by the dems in congress and a lazy veto pen…this is going to be an economic blood bath.
right2bright on February 12, 2010 at 3:17 PM
I’ll be happy when democrats “unexpectedly” get voted out of office.
Scrappy on February 12, 2010 at 3:18 PM
Lol!!
Finally people are catching on. Bloomberg had a great article about him today. He won’t listen to the advice, and even if he did, he can’t catch up. I used to avoid listening to his blathering because it was cringe-making. Now I listen for signs of the crack up.
BO and his wife are great at throwing parties in the WH on our dime. Living large. As offensive as this all is I would be fine giving him a nice severance package and sending him on his way. Biden is an a$$, but with a change in Congress we can survive with a few laughs and sans the constant insults from Captain Oblivious.
Cody1991 on February 12, 2010 at 3:20 PM
It is becoming the America the Obama’s, and company envisioned. Hail to the thief!
capejasmine on February 12, 2010 at 3:21 PM
running?
More like walking, limping, or even crawling
MarkTheGreat on February 12, 2010 at 3:24 PM
BWWWAAAAAAAHHHAAHHAAHHAA!!!
Good one. Laughed out loud.
UltimateBob on February 12, 2010 at 3:27 PM
At some point during the campaign, actually September 13, 2008, it was obvious to me that the Dems would win the WH. With complete control of both houses it spelled disaster for me. During that period I was more angry with Republicans than I can describe. Absolutely furious.
If anyone wants to see where we’re heading, it’s worth looking at what is going on with the EU trying to deal with Greece. Portugal and Spain are next in line for help. European socialism is the model for the Dems. They want to replicate failed models. They think they are intellectuals? It’s a great ride for the pols and bureaucrats – at least for a while.
I want my country back, and I don’t want the US to replicate failed nations no matter how good their food or wine is. We’re coming back, and after months of feeling so depressed I realize that there are millions of Americans who feel the same way.
Cody1991 on February 12, 2010 at 3:30 PM
+1000
Winner.
Daggett on February 12, 2010 at 3:32 PM
FOX News was buzzing this morning about 0bama’s possible plans to go back on his word not to raise taxes on the “middle class.” Apparently some advisors are saying it’s what he needs to do to reduce the deficit.
So when he does that, and the economy gets that much worse, will AP and Reuters still be saying that the news is “unexpected?”
Their heads are so far up their @sses that they can taste tomorrow’s breakfast.
UltimateBob on February 12, 2010 at 3:33 PM
What
happeneddid McCain screw up that day that made you believe that Obama would win?UltimateBob on February 12, 2010 at 3:35 PM
It wasn’t that McCain did anything. It was the markets. If you pull up some charts of the Dow, S&P, currencies, you will see that the market took a huge dive when it was confirmed that Lehman Bros. would go bankrupt. I used to bang on about this because I felt that after the efforts that were made to save other firms there was no reason not to assist Lehman. Paulson was warned by foreign finance ministers not to let it happen.
This all came after months of bad news, but the timing of the Lehman failure in September was awful for McCain.
Putting aside the economic situation it was evident that the Dems had shoved Hillary out for a candidate that could garner the support of all their groups. It wasn’t because he was qualified. It’s because at that point in time he could win.
When I look back on the 2008 election I’m amazed at how fortunate BO was. Under different circumstances he would have been laughed off the stage.
Cody1991 on February 12, 2010 at 3:51 PM
Reuters’ panel of economic forecasters will be filling in for the orchestra on the Titanic.
J_Crater on February 12, 2010 at 4:06 PM
Er, I think “unexpected” is an adjective, not an adverb.
needtoknow on February 12, 2010 at 4:14 PM
You don’t really expect anybody to swallow that, do you?
Yoop on February 12, 2010 at 4:33 PM
The growth in the workforce is often over 300,000 in a quarter. Increasing employment at a slower rate than the workforce grows is bad news.
seven on February 12, 2010 at 4:54 PM
From what I’ve seen, major news organizations like the Wall Street Journal often offer rosy predictions for this statistic and that.
Of course, I no longer trust such reports…they conflict with reality waaaaay too much.
Dr. ZhivBlago on February 12, 2010 at 4:59 PM
Plenty…. guns, ammunition, canned foods, gold…..
CC
CapedConservative on February 12, 2010 at 6:25 PM
There were plenty of jobs around when Billy Jeff was in the White House.
– Monica Lewinsky
fogw on February 12, 2010 at 2:37 PM
You don’t really expect anybody to swallow that, do you?
Kneed to raise expectations.
jbinnout on February 12, 2010 at 8:20 PM
Help Me.
The only thing that is looking to go right in the next year is the Iraq war. And I don’t think that our Affirmative Action Hero had a lot to do with that.
I am dropping my other programs to ask Fox to produce a marathon collection of programs and announcements to honor the Americans who brought us the victory. The wounded, the dead, the families, the Betrayus and some guy named President Bush!
I’m a Bill O. member but got tossed for something. Could someone send this to him?
IlikedAUH2O on February 13, 2010 at 8:44 AM
… and a thin layer of O(B+)ama’s stimulating – organically produced – financial fertilizer.
ReagansRight on February 13, 2010 at 11:02 AM
Er, didn’t you even bother to read? The word broken out by Reuters yet again was “unexpectedly“. As in:
Make sense to you now?
RD on February 13, 2010 at 5:23 PM