Fourth-quarter GDP 5.7%
posted at 10:12 am on January 29, 2010 by Ed Morrissey
The administration got some unexpectedly good news on the economic front this morning, although it had to be qualified almost immediately. Annualized GDP in the fourth quarter rose 5.7%, the second quarter in a row of growth in the economy, which makes the recovery official. However, almost two-thirds of it came from a slowdown in liquidation of inventories, leaving an anemic 2.2% of actual growth:
The U.S. economy grew at a faster-than-expected 5.7 percent pace in the fourth quarter, the quickest in more than six years, as businesses made less-aggressive cuts to inventories and stepped up spending.
The Commerce Department said on Friday its first estimate put fourth-quarter gross domestic product growth at its fastest pace since the third quarter of 2003. The economy expanded at a 2.2 percent annual rate in the third quarter.
Analysts polled by Reuters had forecast GDP, which measures total goods and services output within U.S. borders, growing at a 4.6 percent rate in October-December period.
CNBC points out that actual growth is still muted:
Growth was boosted a sharp slowdown in the pace of inventory liquidation, a factor that could mask the strength of the economic recovery from the longest and deepest downturn since the Great Depression.
But even stripping out inventories, the economy expanded at an annual rate of 2.2 percent, accelerating from the 1.5 percent increase in the third quarter, reflecting relatively strong performance from other segments of the economy.
Business inventories fell only $33.5 billion in fourth quarter after dropping $139.2 billion in the July-September period. The change in inventories alone added 3.39 percentage points to GDP in the last quarter. This was the biggest percentage contribution since the fourth quarter of 1987.
These are all preliminary numbers, of course. Commerce first estimated 2009Q3 GDP at a 3.5% annualized rate of growth. Later it had to revise that number downward twice, to the same 2.2% that remains in Q4 after eliminating inventory manipulation. In a month to six weeks, look for that number to slide downward again, although not as much as in Q3, which was an unusually high correction. It also looks like the inventory accounting will be a one-time deal, which won’t help the numbers in the next quarter.
Politically, this could not come at a better time for Obama. He wants to move forward on jobs in the same direction as Porkulus, and these numbers will lend credence to his argument that his policies are the correct cure for the economy. But a 2.2% rate of real growth won’t be enough to get capital back in the game, especially under the business conditions set by the high-spending, high-regulating, high-taxing agenda in Congress.
Next month’s unemployment report will have more impact on the economic policy debate, I’d guess, than the GDP number.









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j-o-b-s
blatantblue on January 29, 2010 at 10:14 AM
What? A three letter word?
WordsMatter on January 29, 2010 at 10:16 AM
Ajust to 2.2%, then revise the estimate. What’s left?
Not much there there, is there.
petefrt on January 29, 2010 at 10:16 AM
I don’t think they’re going to spin this as hard as we think they are. Too much risk when it turns out to be what Stuart Varney on Fox Business called “an aberration” due to the restocking numbers being included.
Rational Thought on January 29, 2010 at 10:16 AM
Is this “unexpected”?
loudmouth883 on January 29, 2010 at 10:16 AM
Layoff 7m people – and suddenly earnings and profits look better – and the economy grows?
That’s what we’re celebrating?
Hmm
jake-the-goose on January 29, 2010 at 10:16 AM
I noticed that when I read the article this morning. On the surface, 5.7% looks like a great number. But as with everything else from this administration, you have to dig deeper. How much of this figure was due to inventory liquidation and government spending from Porkulus? Because neither of those is sustainable long-term. I guess we’ll know if/when jobs start to come back.
Doughboy on January 29, 2010 at 10:17 AM
It seems that GDP does not properly account for deficit spending. When money has to be borrowed or printed to sustain government spending it should be a negative factor to GDP not a positive one.
Dasher on January 29, 2010 at 10:17 AM
I’m doing this for BleedsBlue. He would have wanted it this way:
WashJeff on January 29, 2010 at 10:18 AM
Obama saved the economy!
More stimulus!
*gag*
JetBoy on January 29, 2010 at 10:18 AM
One doesn’t get job growth at 2.2%.
Vashta.Nerada on January 29, 2010 at 10:19 AM
Reuters? You Lie.
Key West Reader on January 29, 2010 at 10:19 AM
Hahaha!!!
Key West Reader on January 29, 2010 at 10:20 AM
And for those of you who believe this…I suppose you sop up that whole “Jews knew about the Towers in advance” thingy.
“Green shoots” my fat fanny.
seejanemom on January 29, 2010 at 10:20 AM
Good news for the USA = Bad news for the GOP.
Decider on January 29, 2010 at 10:20 AM
What about the whopping 4,000 jobs created in November?
/sarc
Doughboy on January 29, 2010 at 10:20 AM
Econ 101
Inventory reductions are a DRAG on the economy. GNP measurement is a measurement of production. Not producing enough inventory to replace what was sold, reduces GDP.
Something is seriously bogus with this story.
MNHawk on January 29, 2010 at 10:20 AM
Well we saw strong worker productivity growth in 3Q according the BLS:
The next phase of a recovery would be strong GDP growth (and earnings) followed by strong employment growth. The business cycle works even if the government tries to muck it up.
Ted Torgerson on January 29, 2010 at 10:21 AM
+1
And might I add my own ***double backhanded vomitous gag***
seejanemom on January 29, 2010 at 10:22 AM
This grand old free enterprise capitalistic system is staying alive in spite of Obama, his socialist helpers and his government takeovers. Just think what it could do if it was unshackled?
rplat on January 29, 2010 at 10:23 AM
The GDP number is complete hooey. The unemployment numbers for last week cam out yesterday and they show unemployment is increasing.
The government continues to seasonally adjust the unemployment numbers, despite the fact the seasonal workers all got laid off in October and November, by the BLS own admission in their press releases.
Every piece of information the government puts out is politically engineered, at a minimum. They are also sloppy gathering, organizing and analyzing information. Thats a very nasty brew.
dogsoldier on January 29, 2010 at 10:23 AM
Lol.
I don’t feel like reposting comments, so I’ll just direct people to the good discussion in the headline thread.
BadgerHawk on January 29, 2010 at 10:24 AM
So, I guess we can go ahead and return the remainder of ‘Stimulus’ money back to the taxpayer, huh? And no need for any ‘Son of Stimulus’?
If the news is soooooo good….
catmman on January 29, 2010 at 10:24 AM
Well, this is all part of the long-term economic cycle. The economy dips in a recession, then it starts to recover. We can spend oodles from D.C. to “stimulate” the economy, but as we’ve seen, the stimulus does nothing for jobs or long-term economic impact. However, spending over means does, which means the US Government goes deeper into debt. Eventually, there either has to be cutbacks in services (unlikely) or an increase in taxation, and that will hit the economy hard again.
We’ve already hear Pelosi talking about sacrifice. Taxation comes next.
Nethicus on January 29, 2010 at 10:24 AM
Yet another made up number that will have to be “corrected” later on.
LincolntheHun on January 29, 2010 at 10:24 AM
I believe you mean “Y -o-b-s”
seejanemom on January 29, 2010 at 10:25 AM
I credit the GDP increase to:
- Global Cooling.
- Two NFL teams almost having undefeated seasons.
- The potenatial of ObamaCare passing
- More bacon being consumed per capita
WashJeff on January 29, 2010 at 10:25 AM
I don’t think they’re going to spin this as hard as we think they are. Too much risk when it turns out to be what Stuart Varney on Fox Business called “an aberration” due to the restocking numbers being included.
Rational Thought on January 29, 2010 at 10:16 AM
//
They don’t care because they know the obamabots only notice headlines,not how and why the media twists it around to make the little guy look good.
ohiobabe on January 29, 2010 at 10:25 AM
I am sure all the people that do not have a job are just pleased as punch.Happy days are here again.
thmcbb on January 29, 2010 at 10:26 AM
You mean like REAL unemployment numbers?
seejanemom on January 29, 2010 at 10:26 AM
Meanwhile:
“”Wages and benefits rise weak 1.5 percent in 2009; lowest rise going back 27 years.”"
“”Federal debt limit raised by $1.9 trillion.”"
Good times.
Bishop on January 29, 2010 at 10:26 AM
The algebraic summation of those 4,000 and Walmar’s 10,000 reduction results in a significant negative growth number.
rplat on January 29, 2010 at 10:27 AM
Exactly. Government spending is considered an investment so is added to the GDP. But with so much Stimulus money unaccounted for, I find it hard to believe that this type of spending is good for GDP
Electrongod on January 29, 2010 at 10:28 AM
Quit confusing crr6 with those three letter words.
Bishop on January 29, 2010 at 10:28 AM
Alt. headline:
Obama’s Attempt at Completely Destroying Economy Fails.
profitsbeard on January 29, 2010 at 10:29 AM
When are the revised numbers going to be out?
hawksruleva on January 29, 2010 at 10:29 AM
Wait a month; it will be adjusted downward.
NeighborhoodCatLady on January 29, 2010 at 10:29 AM
I was obvioulsy joking with this comment, but it is truly dangerous when politicians attribute correlation with causation. We will obviously see on the talking head shows that the stimulus is working and if we do it one more time, we will reach the promised land of economic nirvana. This thinking if accepted by the broader public only makes it easier to pass dumb taxes, spending and regulations. I hope conservative talking heads can explain this well over the next six months or so.
WashJeff on January 29, 2010 at 10:29 AM
Credit Bush.
Akzed on January 29, 2010 at 10:30 AM
According to this article, there is no restocking of inventory. It’s still dropping.
If this were 1983, sure. Business might see sales rise 2%, figure the recession is behind us, and start ramping up production, sending the GDP soaring.
This is not happening, according to this very story.
MNHawk on January 29, 2010 at 10:31 AM
Good news!!
deidre on January 29, 2010 at 10:31 AM
Bad news is unexpected and quickly ignored.
Good news (even obviously flimsy good news) is immediately trumpeted and offered up as proof of Barry’s economic genius.
Got it.
Sugar Land on January 29, 2010 at 10:32 AM
I believe these numbers like I believe Obama had a 4.0 GPA in college…
texabama on January 29, 2010 at 10:32 AM
Good news = credit Obama
Bad news = blame Bush
Unemployment = 10%. Bush’s fault.
Economy shrank by 2.4% in 2009. Bush’s fault.
Over 4 million private sector jobs lost in 2009. Bush’s fault.
Inventory manipulation, Christmas causes blip of life = Obama!
The new math!
Good Lt on January 29, 2010 at 10:33 AM
No, unprecedented.
conservative pilgrim on January 29, 2010 at 10:33 AM
–Actually, you could get job growth at 2.2% if GDP increases continue. This chart shows the relationship between GDP and job growth in the last thirty years: http://www.thestreet.com/p/_search/rmoney/spincyclerm/10181279.html . And if companies have reduced inventories as low as feasible, you’ll likely get job growth if they decide to quickly start rebuilding inventories because they believe business will continue to expand (it’s not clear to me in Q4 if the inventory reductions slowed or if companies started generally replenishing inventories).
And at least one other statistic suggests the recovery is continuing: The Institute for Supply Management-Chicago’s index of Midwest business activity rose more than expected in January to 61.5 (vs. an expected 57.4) from 58.7 in December. Anything over 50 indicates expansion, so that’s a real good number.
Jimbo3 on January 29, 2010 at 10:33 AM
–Wal-Mart (Sam’s Club) is cutting 10,000 employees but is contracting out the services that those employees provide to another company. That company is probably going to have to hire many of the same employees to service that contract.
Jimbo3 on January 29, 2010 at 10:35 AM
Bad news in Iraq = Good news for Democrats.
That was the calculus from 2003-2008.
How quickly you forget. Or never paid attention in the first place.
And by the way, unemployment is still 10%. That’s bad news for the country, and bad news for Democrats.
You need to readjust your new calculus.
Good Lt on January 29, 2010 at 10:36 AM
I guess we are going to act like Japan. So sad. It is really difficult to make people know that a recovery is going to happen in spite of Obama. This is obstructionist territory.
tomas on January 29, 2010 at 10:37 AM
btw If there were a prize for “Best use of screencaps in a blog”, HA would win first prize hands down.
JetBoy on January 29, 2010 at 10:38 AM
I have to know. Are you a real person, or are you a rubber blow up doll, fighting Chris Matthews for the Obama position?
PappaMac on January 29, 2010 at 10:39 AM
Inventory reductions can be one of two things. Either people are selling more stuff – which is good, or they’re selling the same or less and just producing less – which is bad. From this one size fits all number you can’t tell. So, the number in itself is meaningless.
Also, GDP includes government spending. But, the government doesn’t produce anything. With the giant increase in deficit spending – that shouldn’t be there – the real growth is very low or still negative.
Good news my foot!
Pablo Snooze on January 29, 2010 at 10:42 AM
Key phrase:
Can’t rely on “stimulus”
Reminds me of all the bragging about car sales during the “cash for clunkers” fiasco.
Massively increasing the National debt to “give” tax payer money to states and their business’s seems like more of an extremely expensive circle jerk than a sound economic plan.
Every business I know has had to cut major jobs,inventories,and thoughts of any expansion due to the bad economy and the policies being put forth by Mr. “only 8% unemployment if you give us a trillion dollars”.
My accounts pretty much say the same thing every week…
…”just trying to get by”….”We are able to keep the bills paid,that’s about it”……
….business’s are at bare bones now with profits way down.
…for many,the only movement can be up because they can’t go down any further without going out of business.
…..Car sales and Home sales have always been pretty good indicators of the economy….and they are dismal right now.
…for having such a low dollar..we don’t seem to be exporting all the goods that was bragged about by the the “stimulus” supporters.
I will believe we are making the moves in the right direction when I see an upturn in the overall economy,jobs,import/export of goods,home sales,and retail sales going up (70% of our economy is consumer based) without government funding or bailouts.
This is a good example of the smoke and mirrors the White House is feeding us on the economy:
(via Gateway pundit)
Crony Capitalism: Donate to Democratic Candidate- Win $100 Million in Stimulus Cash & Box Seats at SOTU
Thursday, January 28, 2010, 5:27 PM
Jim Hoft
http://gatewaypundit.firstthings.com/2010/01/crony-capitalism-obamas-example-of-stimulus-success-100-million-for-15-jobs-created-at-dem-donors-company/
It’s Called Crony Capitalism.
Obama mentioned a company last night that actually had created jobs thanks to the (failed) democratic Stimulus bill.
……what is the real story behind such fantastic success of Obama’s stimulus……
42 jobs for 100 million dollars and liberals are bragging about this.
$2,380,952.38 cost per job!!!!!!
How progressive!!!!!!
Baxter Greene on January 29, 2010 at 10:43 AM
You can only put so much “hot air” into a balloon until it pops—-again. As long as the government and the FED continue to prop up the financial institutions, they will “report” favorable outcomes. The day of reckoning will come when the balance sheets DO NOT reflect the government’s cash infusions that are giving the false impression that this nation is recovering. The markets are a joke propped up by confusion and deceit.
Rovin on January 29, 2010 at 10:44 AM
This is pure and simple BS. As Ed said, this number will be revised downward in a month or so.
Inventory supplies go down and GDP goes up? Must be using Romer’s new math strategy.
moonsbreath on January 29, 2010 at 10:44 AM
I’d be willing to bet that a large majority of the public has no basic understanding what the GDP means. But, I am willing to bet that they completely understand what the unemployment rate means.
Mo_mac on January 29, 2010 at 10:44 AM
Obama’s Attempt at Completely Destroying Economy
Failsgoing as planned.profitsbeard on January 29, 2010 at 10:29 AM
uknowmorethanme on January 29, 2010 at 10:46 AM
FYI for any of you who are interested: It looks like it was a rebuilding of inventory in Q4, not a slowing in the rate of reduction of inventory. And no article has yet mentioned the increase in the price index (see below):
“The increase in real GDP in the fourth quarter primarily reflected positive contributions from
private inventory investment, exports, and personal consumption expenditures (PCE). Imports, which
are a subtraction in the calculation of GDP, increased.”
….
“The price index for gross domestic purchases, which measures prices paid by U.S. residents,
increased 2.1 percent in the fourth quarter, compared with an increase of 1.3 percent in the third.
Excluding food and energy prices, the price index for gross domestic purchases increased 1.2 percent in
the fourth quarter, compared with an increase of 0.3 percent in the third.”
Jimbo3 on January 29, 2010 at 10:48 AM
I’d be willing to bet that a large majority of the public has no basic understanding what the GDP means. But, I am willing to bet that they completely understand what the unemployment rate means.
Mo_mac on January 29, 2010 at 10:44 AM
___________________________
Those are the same people that see the DOW go up 150 points and start cheering in the streets, but the next day when the DOW drops 200 pts, they say the DOW doesn’t matter.
The problem with the DOW, is that it’s the ONLY place in America people are investing their money. Nobody investing in start-ups, nobody investing in employees, nobody investing in anything, banks aren’t lending because they need that money to pay for Obama’s retarded bank schemes.
Doesn’t anyone get it? Banks take rich people’s money and loan it to us poor people. And you want to punish them?
uknowmorethanme on January 29, 2010 at 10:48 AM
Nah – as long as the Democrats keep trying to ram through a POS healthcare bill and keep ignoring the American People – the GOP is just fine.
gophergirl on January 29, 2010 at 10:49 AM
Jimbo3 on January 29, 2010 at 10:48 AM
__________________________
I do not put any faith in your numbers because of the Christmas season. Lets see how Q1 of 2010 turns out, then you can trump up your Christmas retail season inflated numbers.
uknowmorethanme on January 29, 2010 at 10:50 AM
5.7%?! BULLS**T! I don’t buy it for a second. I’m in one of the least affected areas of the nation, and from where I sit: Housing is stagnant, layoffs continue, little new hiring, no new commercial. EVERYONE has cut back, and continues to do so. I would bet what’s left in my 401k that they’re cooking the books. Keep in mind, Obama and his band of amatuers think that growing the economy is done simply by willing it so. THE ONE says it, and it is so.
edgehead on January 29, 2010 at 10:50 AM
Total jobs added? According to them, 15 in 2009 and 27 in 2010. For $100 million. Am I supposed to cheer for that?
–What you’re not seeing in those numbers is increases in employment at the suppliers of the infrastructure. That company won’t be manufacturing or producing the infrastructure itself. It will have contracts with suppliers to make the infrastructure.
Jimbo3 on January 29, 2010 at 10:50 AM
Reminds me of the Monty Python “people aren’t wearing enough hats” bit at the beginning of ‘The Meaning of Life’…
Midas on January 29, 2010 at 10:51 AM
So we will now see democrats running to the news pundits,talk shows,and papers bragging about how successful all their policies have been……
……….please do that chump……….the GOP would like nothing more than liberals to start this year crowing and bragging about how “smart”(like they did 2009,how did that work out in NJ,VA,and MA.) they are and how great their policies are working with Americans scratching by for everything they have right now…..
decider here must not remember all the bragging about third quarter GDP being at 3.5% and how great things were turning around, only to have the reality of unemployment,massive mortgage default,tanking dollar,and massive debt,smack the reality of their failures right back in their faces.
…..so please….brag away….will make great footage to go with all of Obama’s lies and broken promises for 2010 and 2012.
Baxter Greene on January 29, 2010 at 10:52 AM
–Agreed. One quarter doesn’t make a trend. But I suspect the Christmas numbers didn’t affect this much. It was a relatively bad year for consumers (I think purchases were down about 5% from last year’s Chistmas season, if I remember correctly).
Jimbo3 on January 29, 2010 at 10:52 AM
See what saying “no” can do… even on a small scale.
mankai on January 29, 2010 at 10:52 AM
It is good news
tomas on January 29, 2010 at 10:53 AM
Having just come through eight years of the “good news for the USA = bad news for the DNC” relationship being demonstrated daily, you’ll forgive me if I guffaw in your face. ;)
Midas on January 29, 2010 at 10:54 AM
The Market Ticket gives a good analysis.. This will most definitely be revised “down”.. Unexpectedly of course..
Zippy_Slug on January 29, 2010 at 10:54 AM
eer.. Market Ticker that is.. *blush*
Zippy_Slug on January 29, 2010 at 10:54 AM
If it was, then that would add to the GDP. But according to this article, and according to the AP version
http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20100129/ap_on_bi_go_ec_fi/us_economy
Well, OK. AP is saying both…even in the same sentence.
WTF. Come on J-School types. Either it’s still dropping, or we’re rebuilding.
But I have to go with Reuters, as they give a number…
Not growing. Not restocking. Fell.
MNHawk on January 29, 2010 at 10:55 AM
Glenn Beck mentioned this story and took it head on. He mentioned that the told everyone over the summer that the economy would start to look better and that they may even propose a new stimulus bill because the other one “worked.” He also mentioned that only 1/3 of the stimulus money has been put out so then the other 2/3 will be pushed out and the economy will look great (kind of like people are saying the economy is “great” now), but that it’s not sustainable. It will collapse totally once the government stops spending our money.
For double dip recession. This is going to be a depression like the world has never seen before.
MobileVideoEngineer on January 29, 2010 at 10:55 AM
Beware the double dip.
Also found this in the last line of the article
Keynesian economics FAIL.
Get the government out of the way and let the economy grow.
Good Lt on January 29, 2010 at 10:55 AM
Oops
MobileVideoEngineer on January 29, 2010 at 10:56 AM
Don’t you mean: “Good news for the Dhimmicrats=Good news for Bin Laden”? I mean, he basically co-opted your only sticking point when he came out as a global warming cultist.
Nice to see the Dhimmis and Bin Laden basically on the same side of all issues now.
PimFortuynsGhost on January 29, 2010 at 10:57 AM
–I’m sorta mystified myself. The releases says, in effect, restocking but yet there was still a net reduction in inventory in Q4.
Jimbo3 on January 29, 2010 at 10:58 AM
Inventory means nothing, until you SELL it. And with total unemployment still up around 17.3%, who’s going to BUY that inventory?
GarandFan on January 29, 2010 at 10:59 AM
anybody willing to take a gamble on what the UE rate will be next week? I predict it won’t decrease and may increase a max of 0.2%. Anything outside of that range I would consider, unexpected. But then again, I’m no economist.
ted c on January 29, 2010 at 11:01 AM
Not sure i see the inconsistency there. If inventories are reducing at rate X, but companies begin to rebuld, that will slow the rate of reduction (assuming consumption remains relatively constant). ?
Midas on January 29, 2010 at 11:01 AM
Ahh….what you are not seeing is the loss of almost 4 million jobs and double digit unemployment after the signing of over a trillion dollar stimulus (with interest) that promised the “creation” of 3.5 million jobs and nothing above 8% unemployment.
The only thing democrats have to refute this failure is bogus proclamations of success based on math that cannot be verified.
From the AP:
We have the White House making claims of job growth in districts that don’t even exist.
We have the White House claiming that even if a dollar goes to a company that pays it employees,it is considered a “job saved” whether it was saved or not.
…..is this your idea of success Jimbo…..
………..do you want to go on record here and claim how successful the stimulus has been considered what was promised by the White House.
…….if this is what you and your liberal friends consider success, then you have no business being around any financial decision making what-so-ever.
Baxter Greene on January 29, 2010 at 11:01 AM
It’ll either increase slightly or stay the same, but undoubtedly be revised upwards ‘unexpectedly’ afterwards.
Midas on January 29, 2010 at 11:02 AM
Inventory reductions are coming because pricing of the goods have dropped significantly, people are selling their goods at near cost. The goods are not being replaced. Where is the recovery in that?
With due respect to Dire Straits:
Money for nothing, tax for thee.
hip shot on January 29, 2010 at 11:03 AM
More MOPE for the masses….
(Management of Perspective Economics)
PatriotRider on January 29, 2010 at 11:03 AM
Well that pretty much confirms what I said earlier. This is primarily the result of inventory liquidation and a ton of government spending. Neither of which is sustainable.
Obama and Congress have around $500 billion left in Porkulus money and I’m sure they’ll find a way to ram through Porkulus II. But once these slush funds run out(and eventually they will), everything could come crashing down.
Doughboy on January 29, 2010 at 11:04 AM
–I’m not claiming the stimulus was a success.
Jimbo3 on January 29, 2010 at 11:04 AM
From Zippy’s link:
As I said earier in this post, this balloon will pop!
Rovin on January 29, 2010 at 11:05 AM
The economy has recovered! Quick! Pass Cap and Trade and amnesty!
cntrlfrk on January 29, 2010 at 11:06 AM
First revision will be to 4.6% and then two months from now the real number of 2.9%. This administration lies, they lie all the time.
jukin on January 29, 2010 at 11:07 AM
You seem too bright to make this claim. You are well aware of revised numbers going forward, and I am pretty sure you read the report, knowing the dynamic of Q4 concerning inventories, exports, etc. But dig a bit deeper into the numbers:
So people consumed less in Q4, vs Q3 – even with Xmas factored in. Not a good sign. Cash for clunkers was a short term blip, that as forcasted – would deliver a bad Q4.
I see a glaring problem here. Inventories and investments were up – namely due to restocking supply, inflation rate (cheaper to buy those goods), yet inventories werent liquidated v Q3 – which I would expect, being more supply was at hand… but if consumer spending was down in Q4 – again Xmas, inventories were bought up, but not sold – I forsee a problem in Q1, concerning liquidation of that inventory, based on consumer spending. Prices should be cheaper – but if that spending doesnt increase dramatically – companys with large inventories will be eating it, with a ripple effect towards their bottom line, i.e. stock performance.
Taxes play a huge roll in Q4 – namely non residential investments – with residential trending down, again v Q3. You would think a vibrant economy – with tax breaks for ‘09 expiring for first time home owners (some continuing to April 2010) – money would have been at least flat, not down compared to Q3.
The only net positive I see is increase in exports (Bambi knew these numbers before the SOTU address, hence the “double exports in 5 years gem”) – which could spur job creation, but combined with other factors – less wages and emptying of overstocked inventory’s may be stagnant for at least 2010.
Thats the gem at the end of the article, that makes your “8% claim” impossible.
So – company’s bought up more inventory’s, due to price and year end tax implications, while consumers spent less – including residential, with unemployment at 10% (real 17%). Oh – and the market is down 3% YTD, with a slight rally today – after the GDP news came out.
I would like to know the trends, data and any other rationale as to how our economy is “growing” and why unemployment will drop 2% in 2010.
Odie1941 on January 29, 2010 at 11:08 AM
It’s all accounting tricks and counting money borrowed from our kids as income today.
Same for Ford’s “profit”, btw.
notagool on January 29, 2010 at 11:10 AM
Hmmm. That doesn’t square with the Yahoo article linked in the headlines:
The rise in price indexes is an interesting point also. It’s only a matter of time before the doubling of the money supply leads to inflation.
BadgerHawk on January 29, 2010 at 11:11 AM
And don’t forget the Bush tax cuts will expire soon. Let’s see how the market investors react to this “little dent” in their incomes.
Rovin on January 29, 2010 at 11:11 AM
In the electronics biz we’re definitely seeing a bounce due to restocking. But for my company, at least, we’re still cutting folks. Why? Because we’ve seen that the customers are building back their inventory to correct spot shortages, but the sales rate has settled down to a much lower rate than before.
nerdbert on January 29, 2010 at 11:15 AM
Very true. I found it interesting Obama mentioned “$30B in small business tax cuts” during his SOTU address, yet Bush tax cuts are going to expire…
Sounds like they are simply repackaging a successful Bush program, while knocking Bush – yet doing the very same thing…
Or he just threw that out there, knowing nothing will be done in Congress to pass $30B orth of tax cuts, but can claim “he ended the “bad” Bush policies, while fighting for cuts that Congress didn’t pass.”
Odie1941 on January 29, 2010 at 11:15 AM
This shows that the Stimulus did work but at a huge cost to future revenue of the free market. It’s also the easiest one for Government to implement. Step 2 is the Jobs bill. In order for the GDP to be sustained, Government must get out of the way and stop skewing the formula. This is the most important step and the one that I have little faith in.
Electrongod on January 29, 2010 at 11:17 AM
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