Blunt now leads Carnahan in MO

posted at 12:45 pm on January 21, 2010 by Ed Morrissey

Could Missouri be the next Senate seat to fall in 2010?  Last year, Rep. Roy Blunt decided to challenge Democrat Robin Carnahan for the seat in what was called a battle of the dynasties, as both families have long political traditions in the Show-Me State.  Rasmussen initially had Carnahan barely in front of Blunt, but the latest poll of likely Missouri voters now shows Blunt with a six-point lead — and the Secretary of State slipping badly:

Republican Roy Blunt now holds a six-point lead over Democrat Robin Carnahan in Missouri’s race for the U.S. Senate.

A new Rasmussen Reports telephone survey of likely voters in the state finds Blunt ahead of Carnahan 49% to 43%. Three percent (3%) prefer some other candidate, and five percent (5%) are undecided.

The latest numbers mark a shift in Blunt’s favor from last month when Carnahan had a narrow 46% to 44% edge over her Republican rival. The candidates, both members of prominent Missouri political families, were tied at 46% apiece in September. As it has for other Democrats throughout the nation, the health care issue appears to be creating challenges for Carnahan. Just 37% of Missouri voters favor the health care plan proposed by President Obama and congressional Democrats, but 62% oppose it.

What’s causing the shift? The same reason Democrats lost the safest seat in the Senate earlier this week:

As it has for other Democrats throughout the nation, the health care issue appears to be creating challenges for Carnahan. Just 37% of Missouri voters favor the health care plan proposed by President Obama and congressional Democrats, but 62% oppose it.

Carnahan has some big problems in the internals. First, both candidates are well-known quantities in Missouri, with only 6% not having an opinion of Carnahan and 9% for Blunt.  Carnahan can only manage a 49% favorable rating, a danger sign for any candidate, while Blunt gets 56% — not great, but better than his opponent.  Oddly, Carnahan only gets a 51% favorable from women, while Blunt gets 56%, an unusual gender gap, although at the moment Carnahan edges Blunt with the female vote by two points.

The unaffiliated voters have broken hard for Blunt.  He has a 20-point lead, 52/32, among independent voters.  Furthermore, those voters are much more inclined to oppose ObamaCare, 74%/24%, so the remaining independents will almost all go Blunt’s way in a two-way general election race.  Blunt also gets 12% of Democrats to cross over.

The economy will probably be the deciding factor, at least after ObamaCare.  Only 7% of Democrats, 3% of Republicans, and 9% of independents rate the economic situation as “excellent” or “good”.  Majorities of all three rate it “poor”, the worst option in the survey, with 57% of independents giving that answer.  That doesn’t help Democrats in what will already be a tough election year.

This race looks increasingly like a Republican hold, which should surprise no one this year.

Update: D’oh!  Jefferson City is Missouri’s capital; Harry Truman hailed from Independence.  Forty lashes with a wet noodle for that gaffe.


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We can do this one seat at a time. Lots of good news this week after a year of awful news.

Brat4life on January 21, 2010 at 12:47 PM

heh
so many leaks in the dam

so little fingers to stick the leaks with

blatantblue on January 21, 2010 at 12:47 PM

Unexpectedly, according to the media

Vashta.Nerada on January 21, 2010 at 12:47 PM

Dominoes?

Disturb the Universe on January 21, 2010 at 12:47 PM

Please Please Please no more Carnahans.

daesleeper on January 21, 2010 at 12:48 PM

Harry Truman is from Independence, but the capital of Missouri is Jefferson City.

Good post otherwise!

Mr. D on January 21, 2010 at 12:49 PM

Show Me a Blunt win!

Abby Adams on January 21, 2010 at 12:49 PM

Voters are angry at Bush, therefore they’ll elect a Republican. Nothing new here.

a capella on January 21, 2010 at 12:50 PM

Harry Truman is from Independence, but the capital of Missouri is Jefferson City.

Mr. D on January 21, 2010 at 12:49 PM

Whoops! I heard that Jefferson guy like liberty, so still a good choice.

WashJeff on January 21, 2010 at 12:50 PM

Wow- for there to be a lot of anger in general (according to Dear Leader) there sure seems to be a specific target of this “general” anger.
Keep whistling past the graveyard, losers.

jjshaka on January 21, 2010 at 12:50 PM

a capella on January 21, 2010 at 12:50 PM

In other news Iran is interested in hiring Howard Dean and the MSNBC as gaseous diffusion centrifuges.

Holger on January 21, 2010 at 12:51 PM

Senate Tsunami……….bring it on!

justonevictory on January 21, 2010 at 12:52 PM

We are seeing a *strong* movement of independents to Republicans this year and some additional support for the Republican party.

Could it be that what we are seeing is that a significant number of strong conservatives are calling themselves “independent” as they are still pissed at the RNC?

18-1 on January 21, 2010 at 12:53 PM

Harry Truman is from Independence, but the capital of Missouri is Jefferson City.

Good post otherwise!

[bangs head repeatedly on desk]

Ed Morrissey on January 21, 2010 at 12:54 PM

I was wondering about the noisy flap over the tiny “bank tax”.

There is a rumor in DC that the next speech from Dear Leader will attempt to lay the economic problem on Repubs and banks. See if I heard right.

I hope that Rove’s book lays the blame for the economic mess where it belongs. Like Senator jug ears fighting GWB’s attempts to reign in Fannie and Freddy.

I really want some conclusions.

IlikedAUH2O on January 21, 2010 at 12:55 PM

Ah, would anyone like to join me for some tea?

NYconservative on January 21, 2010 at 12:55 PM

Missouri is THE bellwether state for the nation. If 62% oppose HealthRation there, it doesn’t have a chance nationally.

Ace ODale on January 21, 2010 at 12:56 PM

We are seeing a *strong* movement of independents to Republicans this year and some additional support for the Republican party.

Could it be that what we are seeing is that a significant number of strong conservatives are calling themselves “independent” as they are still pissed at the RNC?

18-1 on January 21, 2010 at 12:53 PM

Bingo!

NYconservative on January 21, 2010 at 12:56 PM

keep on truckin’

cmsinaz on January 21, 2010 at 12:57 PM

Harry Truman is from Independence, but the capital of Missouri is Jefferson City.

Good post otherwise!

Mr. D on January 21, 2010 at 12:49 PM

LOL Beat me to it! =)

HouseHold6 on January 21, 2010 at 12:58 PM

Liberalism is not the America that Our Founding Fathers fought to give it’s people.
The People are now awaking from a slumbering sleep to reclaim the power of the Elected.
We the people want…Less Govt~Less Taxes…
Freedom and Liberty shall prevail once again upon the Land of America!.
God Bless

hawkman on January 21, 2010 at 12:58 PM

The way this bho is dealing with the economy, as with the new bank regulations today and stock market crater, will NEVER get the jobs back for the Nov. election. This is gonna kill any d who voted for the stimulus. I see a future for a major overtake of dc by r’s in Nov.!
L

letget on January 21, 2010 at 12:59 PM

Blessings to all those who are so angry at Bush, they want conservatism to make a come back. LOL

capejasmine on January 21, 2010 at 1:00 PM

Note to GOP braintrust:

Nationalize the election. Today.

Pour it on. Today.

Think Sam Houston at San Jacinto.

Seems like “Taxpayers want their money spent on our troops, not lawyers for terrorists.” played well somewhere out East this week…

Bruno Strozek on January 21, 2010 at 1:00 PM

hawkman on January 21, 2010 at 12:58 PM

LET’S ROLL!

God Bless America!

Roy Rogers on January 21, 2010 at 1:01 PM

Some of the most atrocious acts against the citizens were at Carnahan town halls. They had a lot of video, so it is not unusual that Carnahan is in trouble. I expected that as soon as her condescending attitude was revealed in those town halls.

The town halls over the summer did a lot of damage to the Democrats. They were pissing off the locals who remember come ballot time.

RAH on January 21, 2010 at 1:01 PM

[bangs head repeatedly on desk]

Ed Morrissey on January 21, 2010 at 12:54 PM

`
Ed, aren’t you supposed to blame your predecessor for this mistake. You know, you inherited your maps from Allah or something like that. Thanks for your humility, this is what makes your site great. It also illustrates some of the traits between conservatives and liberals. A conservative can own up to a mistake and make the correction quickly, rather than argue and call names. Have a great day.

CBP on January 21, 2010 at 1:01 PM

Well we all knew that Missourians were pickup driving racists.

/Racist Olbermann rant.

rbj on January 21, 2010 at 1:01 PM

from 911 in 2001 to 119 in 2010… go Scott go!!

moonbatkiller on January 21, 2010 at 1:03 PM

Update: D’oh! Jefferson City is Missouri’s capital; Harry Truman hailed from Independence. Forty lashes with a wet noodle for that gaffe.

Biden / Morrissey 2012 !!!!!!

UltimateBob on January 21, 2010 at 1:04 PM

The economy will probably be the deciding factor, at least after ObamaCare.

Yeah maybe but don’t forget about the terror trial revolt that is hovering off in the distance. That is going to finish the Dems off come Nov.

Questions surrounding that should be mandatory for all pollsters from here on out.

Youngs98 on January 21, 2010 at 1:05 PM

Rasmussen also had Snarlin’ Arlen Sphincter way behind in PA.

gsherin on January 21, 2010 at 1:07 PM

As unthrilled as I am with Roy Blunt moving up to the Senate, he’d be a darn sight better than pretty much anyone named Carnahan. Blunt seems a bit too entrenched with the Delay-type wing for my comfort.

Now if it was his son, the former Governor, then I’d be a bit more excited.

Too bad McCaskill isn’t up this year.

Bit of MO Politics trivia: Back in the mid-80s, Roy ran for Sec of state against Gary Sharp!

JamesLee on January 21, 2010 at 1:07 PM

It’s a new sensation that’s sweeping the nation!!!!!

Hening on January 21, 2010 at 1:08 PM

just saw on drudge that dear leader will be in nevada to campaign for dingy harry…maybe he can make a pit stop in MO for carnahan?

cmsinaz on January 21, 2010 at 1:09 PM

Dick Morris had a recent article that mentioned Specter. Hopefully he can make it through the Dem primary, because he should get killed in November. One more possible seat to switch and I’ll help to bring it on.

CBP on January 21, 2010 at 1:09 PM

I’m a mile and half from being able to vote for Blunt, but you better bet I’m going to campaign for him!

anniekc on January 21, 2010 at 1:10 PM

Oddly, Carnahan only gets a 51% favorable from women, while Blunt gets 56%, an unusual gender gap

I think it’s becoming much less unusual due to the mama bear effect

forest on January 21, 2010 at 1:11 PM

are they not running to replace Kit Bond who is not running again? I’m confused and I’m in MO.

kahall on January 21, 2010 at 1:13 PM

Some of the most atrocious acts against the citizens were at Carnahan town halls. They had a lot of video, so it is not unusual that Carnahan is in trouble. I expected that as soon as her condescending attitude was revealed in those town halls.

I think that you are confusing Carnahan with Missouri Senator McCaskill

Old Fritz on January 21, 2010 at 1:15 PM

A little ditty to NY Democrats

Sung to the tune of Frank Sinatra’s “New York, New York”

Start reporting the news
They’re leavin’ today
They want it more transparent
Health care, health care

These independent rogues
They’re longing to slay
Knife through the very heart of it
Health care, health care

I want a shake up in that city
That’s been asleep
And find that we can compete
Push out the sheep

If they can change it there (Massachusetts)
We can change it anywhere
It’s up to you
New York, New York

NYconservative on January 21, 2010 at 1:16 PM

Update: D’oh! Jefferson City is Missouri’s capital; Harry Truman hailed from Independence. Forty lashes with a wet noodle for that gaffe.

It’s also one of the few state capital with no interstate access*. Frankfort, KY and Pierre, SD are the other two. Useless info from the head of SouthernGent.

*I do think Jefferson City is getting some sort of “interstate spur”, though.

SouthernGent on January 21, 2010 at 1:16 PM

Could Missouri be the next Senate seat to fall in 2010?

In the interest of clarity, the above is rather misleading, if not down right in error. If Blunt does take the seat, it is hardly a seat to “fall.” The seat is current held by a Republican, Kit Bond. While Ed does state that it is a “Hold,” on the pervious page, the opening sentence above does not make that clear.

mwdiver on January 21, 2010 at 1:16 PM

Annie, sounds like you are mighty close to me!

JamesLee on January 21, 2010 at 1:16 PM

It’s also one of the few state capital with no interstate access*. Frankfort, KY and Pierre, SD are the other two. Useless info from the head of SouthernGent.

With the improvements they’ve done to US 63, and 54 for that matter, it’s like there’s almost an interstate there. At least north on 63.

JamesLee on January 21, 2010 at 1:18 PM

In the interest of clarity, the above is rather misleading, if not down right in error. If Blunt does take the seat, it is hardly a seat to “fall.” The seat is current held by a Republican, Kit Bond. While Ed does state that it is a “Hold,” on the pervious page, the opening sentence above does not make that clear.

mwdiver on January 21, 2010 at 1:16 PM

Which is why I was confused. It is a hold and not a seat falling to the GOP.

kahall on January 21, 2010 at 1:18 PM

I’m certain Ed knows this, but the opening sentence of his post might leave some confused. Missouri’s Senators are Clare McCaskill, Democrat/Nitwit, who next runs in 2012, and Kit Bond, Republican, who is retiring (term limited?) this year.

It is this R seat that is up for grabs, so if the Senate seat “falls” as he puts it, it would be to a Democrat. The best the GOP can do in Missouri is hold the seat. Here’s hoping Blunt can do so. Carnahan’s an idiot, which is apparently a genetic condition.

Jaibones on January 21, 2010 at 1:18 PM

Please Please Please no more Carnahans.
daesleeper on January 21, 2010 at 12:48 PM

Thanks daesleeper for the radio interview with Robin Carnahan(D). Just goes to show you Democrats can’t read and don’t care about their constituents in their home state. My first question to any politician running for office will be…”Can you read?”

Go Missiouri, vote for Roy Blunt(R) for your next Senator!!!

yoda on January 21, 2010 at 1:19 PM

At least we have the capitol back in Jeff City. Ha!

kahall on January 21, 2010 at 1:20 PM

just saw on drudge that dear leader will be in nevada to campaign for dingy harry…maybe he can make a pit stop in MO for carnahan?

cmsinaz on January 21, 2010 at 1:09 PM

We should start making formal requests for the poisonous President to campaign for each and every Democrat on the ballot.

It would keep him too busy to get anymore stupid socialist ideas and keep Dems out of Washington.

petunia on January 21, 2010 at 1:21 PM

The only thing left in this election, is for President Toonces to fly in, and show Carnahan the precipice.

That is, after Toonces is done campaigning for Harry Reid.

MNHawk on January 21, 2010 at 1:21 PM

*I do think Jefferson City is getting some sort of “interstate spur”, though.

SouthernGent on January 21, 2010 at 1:16 PM

It’s also sitting on the New Madrid fault line, which has been rumbling lately.

I know, more useless information.

Knucklehead on January 21, 2010 at 1:22 PM

petunia on January 21, 2010 at 1:21 PM

sounds good!

cmsinaz on January 21, 2010 at 1:23 PM

Robin Carnahan? I thought it was Jean Carnahan? Or have I been asleep a long time?

DaydreamBeliever on January 21, 2010 at 1:23 PM

moonbatkiller on January 21, 2010 at 1:03 PM

Thanks for that. Hadn’t noticed.

LibTired on January 21, 2010 at 1:23 PM

Rasmussen also had Snarlin’ Arlen Sphincter way behind in PA.

gsherin on January 21, 2010 at 1:07 PM

Maybe Specter is going to try and switch back to the GOP, saying ‘let bygones be bygones’. Heh.

Vashta.Nerada on January 21, 2010 at 1:24 PM

Jean Carnahan was the widow of the late Governor, Mel, who won the Senate seat after dying. (One-Term Bob) Holden then appointed Jean to fill the seat, which she immediatly lost to Jim Talent in the Special Election. McCaskill then took it in ’06.

JamesLee on January 21, 2010 at 1:25 PM

McCaskill then took it in ‘06.

JamesLee on January 21, 2010 at 1:25 PM

Okay, so Robin’s is her own. Thanks for that.

DaydreamBeliever on January 21, 2010 at 1:28 PM

Also keep in mind that it was her brother Russ Carnahan who was holding the town hall rally in St. Louis where the SEIU thug beat up Kenneth Gladney. The eventual charges of the SEIU assailant? Some misdemeanor, akin to a parking ticket.

mwdiver on January 21, 2010 at 1:28 PM

Don’t ask Allah what the capital of Missouri is. He would probably say “M.”

mwdiver on January 21, 2010 at 1:30 PM

When is the election???
November?

A lot can happen between now and then…

bridgetown on January 21, 2010 at 1:32 PM

Okay, so Robin’s is her own. Thanks for that.

Also, Robin is currently Sec of State. The ONLY MO Sec of State to have not one, but TWO reprimands from the courts about bad ballots, as her office handles elections. Don’t remember the details though.

JamesLee on January 21, 2010 at 1:35 PM

Some of this movement toward Republicans could be due to Missouri’s other Senator, Claire McCaskill (D) giving a very mixed message about ObamaCare, saying that it’s too expensive, yet voting for its passage in the Senate. Missourians have probably decided that they don’t want another Democrat saying one thing and voting for this monstrosity, and want to send a Blunt message to the Senate.

Steve Z on January 21, 2010 at 1:35 PM

Don’t ask Allah what the capital of Missouri is. He would probably say “M.”

mwdiver on January 21, 2010 at 1:30 PM

Or Branson.

DaydreamBeliever on January 21, 2010 at 1:37 PM

Could it be that what we are seeing is that a significant number of strong conservatives are calling themselves “independent” as they are still pissed at the RNC?

18-1 on January 21, 2010 at 12:53 PM

Absolutely. That was good enough for me to start calling myself an Independent. I have always been conservative first and Republican second. The squishy RINO’s, sucky Republican leadership, McCainish aisle-crossers and outright backstabbing liars (Specter, Graham, etc.) drove me to declare my “Independence” from the Republicans.
Will I still vote for Republicans? Yes, but I will no longer give it up for just any (R) simply because they’re an (R). Earn it, you pukes or piss off.

SKYFOX on January 21, 2010 at 1:38 PM

So are we going to take back the senate? If not now, then when?

promachus on January 21, 2010 at 1:40 PM

Don’t ask Allah what the capital of Missouri is. He would probably say “M.”

mwdiver on January 21, 2010 at 1:30 PM

You mean he got that one wrong on his SAT’s?

SKYFOX on January 21, 2010 at 1:41 PM

Claire McCaskill (D) giving a very mixed message about ObamaCare, saying that it’s too expensive

One thing you can’t accuse McCaskill of is being stupid. She knows she’s in trouble, and is starting early, well, actually never stopped, trying to sell her ‘rural Democrat’ independent image.

To my knowledge, she’s only lost one race in her political career, and that was the Governor’s Mansion in 2004. That look her her face when she conceeded was absolutely priceless!

JamesLee on January 21, 2010 at 1:41 PM

Carnahan really, really ticked off some pastry shop in his district in the spring of last year I believe. Something over energy and cap n’ trade legislation. He was one of the first out of the chute to get an earful in a townhall. The peeps there in Missouri have his number and I think they’re going to call it.

ted c on January 21, 2010 at 1:44 PM

Coming from a life-long Missourian, some of this is because Carnahan, this one at least, is a first class jerk who’s been a huge O-bot from day one.

Of course, the Blunt’s are wearing very thin also. Too bad Ashcroft won’t dust off his suit coat and jump back in.

dean_acheson on January 21, 2010 at 1:47 PM

There’s only one Democrat in MO that I’ve voted for, Joe Maxwell. At least way back then, he didn’t give a hoot what party you were from, if you had a good idea, he would listen to you. Carnahan has STRONG support in KC and St. Louis since they’re liberal cesspools. I’m hoping Blunt can pull it off.

Torch on January 21, 2010 at 2:05 PM

This is gonna kill any d INCUMBENT who voted for the stimulus. I see a future for a major overtake of dc by rCONSERVATIVE’s in Nov.!
L

letget on January 21, 2010 at 12:59 PM

FIFY

Blacksmith8 on January 21, 2010 at 2:09 PM

This is gonna kill any d INCUMBENT who voted for the stimulus. I see a future for a major overtake of dc by rCONSERVATIVE’s in Nov.!
L

letget on January 21, 2010 at 12:59 PM
FIFY

Blacksmith8 on January 21, 2010 at 2:09 PM

Yes, even my Blue-dog congressman, Gene Taylor, might get thrown out. I know of some former supporters who are looking for an alternative, and we have a possibility in Tegerdine.

http://www.joetegerdine.com/

icyhot on January 21, 2010 at 2:28 PM

Princess Robin will also be hurt by the “its not the Kennedy seat” sentiment. She has been living on her late father’s reputation (along with her clueless Congressman brother) for way too long. It is time that America ended political royalty, even though Roy’s son played the royalty card, too. Hopefully, he has found real employment outside of government.

flyoverland on January 21, 2010 at 2:39 PM

McCaskill next! She’s been a stain on MO’s honor since day 1!

Rogue on January 21, 2010 at 2:44 PM

As unthrilled as I am with Roy Blunt moving up to the Senate, he’d be a darn sight better than pretty much anyone named Carnahan. Blunt seems a bit too entrenched with the Delay-type wing for my comfort.

Now if it was his son, the former Governor, then I’d be a bit more excited.

Too bad McCaskill isn’t up this year.

Bit of MO Politics trivia: Back in the mid-80s, Roy ran for Sec of state against Gary Sharp!

JamesLee on January 21, 2010 at 1:07 PM

Agreed on all. Blunt is a little too comfortable with how the game is played in Washington, but I’ll agree with 80-90% of his votes so I’ll vote for him.

I think I’ll be a little more excited about supporting Steelman is she takes on Claire.

stldave on January 21, 2010 at 3:18 PM

Also, Robin is currently Sec of State. The ONLY MO Sec of State to have not one, but TWO reprimands from the courts about bad ballots, as her office handles elections. Don’t remember the details though.

JamesLee on January 21, 2010 at 1:35 PM

Wasn’t it Robin Carnahan who, during the 2008 election, held a press conference that she would seek prosecution for any “lies and misinformation” concerning Barack Obama? It’s was Missouri’s ‘fight the smears’ we will throw you in jail stunt.

TN Mom on January 21, 2010 at 3:43 PM

TN Mom, I know there was a couple of prosecutors and sherriff’s depts in and around StLouis, as well as McCaskill, that were involved in that. Can’t recall off the top of my head if Robin was there, but it makes sense if she was.

JamesLee on January 21, 2010 at 3:54 PM

Roy’s a little squishy for me, but compared to Ms. Carnahan, he’s a saint and will get my vote. We’re also hoping to unseat the honorable, reverand, castro loving, Rep. Emanuel Cleaver. Go Jacob Turk!

MalindaH on January 21, 2010 at 4:03 PM

Turk! Turk! Turk!

JamesLee on January 21, 2010 at 4:07 PM

Annie, sounds like you are mighty close to me!

JamesLee on January 21, 2010 at 1:16 PM

South O.P. near Stateline.

anniekc on January 21, 2010 at 4:07 PM

Turk! Turk! Turk!

JamesLee on January 21, 2010 at 4:07 PM

You Betcha!

MalindaH on January 21, 2010 at 4:11 PM

Ahh, not far at all, Annie. Work in Shawnee, just off SM Parkway, and live in Independence. Luckily, I’m going opposite traffic on I35 both ways.

JamesLee on January 21, 2010 at 4:12 PM

JamesLee on January 21, 2010 at 4:12 PM

I’m also in Independence. I work on the NW corner of 39th & 291 highway.

MalindaH on January 21, 2010 at 4:21 PM

Malinda: Target? :)

Live just off of 70 & Noland, and at least once a week go to one of my favorite stores ever, Sam’s Club, right near your work.

JamesLee on January 21, 2010 at 4:25 PM

JL-Speaks funeral home.

MalindaH on January 21, 2010 at 4:32 PM