Zogby: Coakley will win by less than a point

posted at 10:55 am on January 19, 2010 by Ed Morrissey

Via Allahpundit’s Twitter feed and Chris at HAP, John Zogby throws a little cold water on the Election Day vibe for Scott Brown. Or does he? Zogby isn’t known so much for deadly accuracy in polling as he is for tossing high-risk predictions that fail to meet reality. Conservatives have long taken Zogby predictions with a grain of salt — although while quoting him when the predictions suit us, of course. Has Zogby seen something every other pollster has missed? Or is he just looking to stake out the turf that has been left to him?

In either case, it’s a good reminder that the election isn’t won until the votes are cast. And even if Coakley wins this by less than a point, does anyone think that the lesson here will be lost on Democrats facing constituencies less blue and more red than Massachusetts — which would be just about every other constituency possible outside of San Francisco and New York City?

Update: Jim Geraghty reminds us on Twitter of Zogby’s record: “Just remember, Zogby’s final 2004 poll, unveiled on Election Day, showed Kerry winning by a wide margin.”


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In either case, it’s a good reminder that the election isn’t won until the votes are cast.

Sorry, but the election isn’t won until the votes are counted. Gregoire, 2004. Franken, 2008.

SouthernRoots on January 19, 2010 at 12:07 PM

PLEASE SEND SCOTT $$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$ FOR LEGAL CHALLENGES

OmahaConservative on January 19, 2010 at 12:08 PM

The Cradle of Liberty is rocking today. Rock away, Rock away and go Scotty B go!

ted c on January 19, 2010 at 12:09 PM

I’m going to trust Zogby to be the quintessential outlier.

You can trust your poll to the man who wears the scar, the big purple I can’t get it to heal scar. Sing it to the old Texaco jingle.

Americannodash on January 19, 2010 at 12:10 PM

I don’t know guys – there’s a bit too much Pepto Bismal flowing through the WH for this to be in the bag for Coakley. Watch what they do (or are doing) not what they say. IF Coakely wins it will be by a very slim margin (ala Franken) hence the indigestion from the Dems. They know there is a better than even chance that Brown pulls off a stunning upset.

volnation on January 19, 2010 at 12:12 PM

I hate to be an Eeyore (that’s Allah’s job, of course), but my attitude remains that I’ll only believe a Republican can win (a major office) in MA when it actually happens. Hope Scott Brown can prove me wrong, but until I see election results declaring him the winner, I’ll remain reserved.

That said, I will say that to me, wet-blanket that I am, the most fascinating indicator that he might really win is how much the Democrat establishment is kavetching about this. I’m not talking about nutroots soiling themselves at the POSSIBILITY of a Brown win, I’m talking about the “off-the-record” chatter coming from the White House and other major Democrats….they’re acting as if a Coakley loss is practically inevitable. And it may be. I hope it is.

Vyce on January 19, 2010 at 12:14 PM

Maybe Zogby is convinced – like many of us – that the Dem machine will create and count enough votes to steal the election.

They’ve stopped at nothing so far in the last year, have stolen elections before – there’s no reason to think they won’t do their damndest (legally or otherwise) to win this incredibly important vote.

Midas on January 19, 2010 at 12:15 PM

Has Zogby seen something every other pollster has missed?

ACORN?

drjohn on January 19, 2010 at 12:18 PM

I’ve heard that both Jack and Ted Kennedy have already voted.

drjohn on January 19, 2010 at 12:21 PM

He’s added in all the names on tombstones in Mass.

michaelo on January 19, 2010 at 12:26 PM

MM writes that Voinivich is meeting with Obama today at 11:30. Scott Brown winning will be great, but his vote won’t mean a thing if Obama sweet talks one of the RINO weasels into changing their vote. I think they love the attention they get when they pull stunts like this.

silvernana on January 19, 2010 at 12:33 PM

As Hugh has always said, if it is not close, they can’t cheat. It will be close, they will cheat. Brown peaked too soon. Coakley will WIN. Zogby is simply speaking conventional wisdom.

Angry Dumbo on January 19, 2010 at 12:34 PM

This is playing the line at it’s best.
Zogby might as well bet against the tide .. if he’s right, it will probably bring in work from other Democrats in the fall

J_Crater on January 19, 2010 at 12:36 PM

Never underestimate the GOP’s uncanny ability to fumble on the 1 yard line.

spmat on January 19, 2010 at 12:36 PM

If Scott Brown doesn’t win after all these polls show him ahead, I vow not to ever get excited again in one of these races when our candidate polls ahead.

silvernana on January 19, 2010 at 12:38 PM

Remember that the Zogbys are closely aligned with the Democratic Party, especially in the Northeast.

I wouldn’t put it past them to even collaborate in the “ballot box stuffing” that is very likely to be going on in MA right now.

newton on January 19, 2010 at 12:38 PM

Zogby also said McCain was within 1% 2 days before the election.

angryed on January 19, 2010 at 12:48 PM

He’s a big time pollster and I’m just a fat guy in a Fedora, but I can’t see any data points on the ground that support this conclusion.

And believe me I’ve been seeking out Coakley supporters to talk to.

If Annie is willing to say ON CAMERA that Brown has the edge then it is as over as it can be.

petertheslow on January 19, 2010 at 12:52 PM

Between Cantor and Ryan and Palin and Brown and DeMint (and lots of others) —

HOW AWESOME IS IT TO BE A REPUBLICAN?!?!?!?!!

Stephanie on January 19, 2010 at 12:56 PM

Zogby is almost always WRONG! That’s because he is a dishonest Democrat pollster who is always trying to push the results he wants.

Sporty1946 on January 19, 2010 at 12:59 PM

I’ve heard that both Jack and Ted Kennedy have already voted.

drjohn on January 19, 2010 at 12:21 PM

But what about Mary Jo?

Sporty1946 on January 19, 2010 at 1:01 PM

I’ve heard that both Jack and Ted Kennedy have already voted.

drjohn on January 19, 2010 at 12:21 PM
But what about Mary Jo?

Sporty1946 on January 19, 2010 at 1:01 PM

No voting booths in heaven!

faol on January 19, 2010 at 1:29 PM

“Predicting” that Coakley will win by less than 1 point is exactly what someone whose goal was to motivate dems to get out and vote for Coakley would say.

Sounds like democrat propaganda to me.

LASue on January 19, 2010 at 1:47 PM

Pollsters are consultants. And, having employed them myself, I can say that consultants always have a lot of competition. They will do really unethical things to keep the cash flowing.

IlikedAUH2O on January 19, 2010 at 2:05 PM

I have a very simple question. If it were possible and it probabbly is, do you think Dems would steal the election? Their excuse would be that healthcare as a right was too important.

I believe that if the election is within 2-3% it will be stolen if possible.

patrick neid on January 19, 2010 at 2:27 PM

Zogby is a pure contemporary Democrat, willing to sacrifice his professional credibility in a futile effort to advance his ideology. Few believed his polls before this conjecture, and even fewer will from tonight onward.

cavman on January 19, 2010 at 3:45 PM

Coakley will win by less than a point

That certainly would be well within the SEIU/ACORN “margin of error”.

Dr. ZhivBlago on January 19, 2010 at 4:29 PM

Zogby: Senate Race Prediction Just A “Hunch”

Pollster John Zogby, seeking to clarify a prediction he made on Sean Hannity’s radio show yesterday, says his statement that Martha Coakley might win was just a “hunch.”

In a statement to RCP, Zogby now says he has “no idea what is going to happen.” The full statement:

Toldja

KittyLowrey on January 19, 2010 at 4:49 PM

Zogs-Fail

CWforFreedom on January 19, 2010 at 11:24 PM

Zogs-Fail

CWforFreedom on January 19, 2010 at 11:24 PM

Yup.

unclesmrgol on January 19, 2010 at 11:40 PM

BZZZZZZZZZZZZZ

No, I’m sorry, John, the correct answer is “What is 5%, 5%.”
Pick another category, please.

riverrat10k on January 19, 2010 at 11:51 PM

BZZZZZZZZZZZZZ

No, I’m sorry, John, the correct answer is “What is Brown by 5%, Brown by 5%.”
Pick another category, please.

riverrat10k on January 19, 2010 at 11:51 PM

fifm

riverrat10k on January 19, 2010 at 11:59 PM

Is he still using a dartboard? I can make predictions too just send your checks to MormonDoc. I’ll guess (er, predict) any event. I’m especially good at predicting past events. That’s what keeps my average up.

Mormon Doc on January 20, 2010 at 6:08 AM

Pollsters, to maintain credibility, should not offer hunches. The results show how out of touch he is with the pulse of the voters and puts his skills in question. Stupid career move, Zog.

SKYFOX on January 20, 2010 at 8:05 AM

Wishful thinking by another ‘stretch the limits of human logic’ liberal democrat.

kens on January 20, 2010 at 9:40 AM

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