Wow: Insider Advantage poll for Politico shows Brown by nine
posted at 4:47 pm on January 18, 2010 by Allahpundit
I’ve always thought IA was reputable, but they actually did worse than ARG on that 2008 primary report card that I keep linking and people are telling me on Twitter (not just lefties, either) to proceed with caution. Duly noted.
But an awful lot of numbers from an awful lot of people today seem to be heading in this direction.
According to the survey conducted Sunday evening, Brown leads the Democratic attorney general 52 percent to 43 percent.
“I actually think the bottom is falling out,” said InsiderAdvantage CEO Matt Towery, referring to Coakley’s fall in the polls over the last ten days. “I think that this candidate is in freefall. Clearly this race is imploding for her.”…
Brown holds a 15-point lead among males and crushes Coakley by 41 points among self-described independents, a group that’s been steadily inching away from the Democratic party over the last year due to growing apprehension with government spending, bailouts and health care reform…
And the survey shows almost a quarter of Democratic voters lining up with Brown.
That’s exactly what ARG showed, handing 23 percent of Democrats to Scotty B. So what makes this poll so interesting? Ah: It was conducted last night, after The One’s descent from Olympus to Massachusetts. Either he did nothing for her or … he made things worse. Or, I guess, she could be cratering so badly that he broke her fall a tiny bit. A nine-point lead today instead of the 10-pointer it would have been?
Believe it or not, IA’s CEO thinks they may be lowballing Brown’s lead by undersampling independents. One detail gives me pause, though: They have Brown winning 61/30 in the 18-to-29 group, which should be ground zero for Hopenchange fee-vah — especially with all the college liberals in Massachusetts. Even with heavy momentum for Brown, that’s simply impossible to believe.
Exit question: Given the stakes for ObamaCare, would this be the biggest upset in modern political history? Chris Cillizza floats a few other candidates for that honor, but go see for yourself. It’s no contest.
Update: And with this, the AP pessimism meter is officially unplugged. From Time’s Karen Tumulty:
coakley rally, set to start in five minutes in middle school gym, is 3/4 empty. they’ve pulled curtain across middle of gym.
Blowback
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simple explanation:
obviously, massachusettEs has a lot more racists in it than we ever knew.
reliapundit on January 18, 2010 at 5:19 PM
and yankee fans!
reliapundit on January 18, 2010 at 5:19 PM
“We never knew Dad drank until one day he came home sober.” – Red Green
Del Dolemonte on January 18, 2010 at 5:20 PM
A video of this would go great with Ed’s post of the empty phone bank for what’s her name…
Seven Percent Solution on January 18, 2010 at 5:20 PM
I’ll bring liverwurst pat’taaay.
OmahaConservative on January 18, 2010 at 5:20 PM
Heh. Just saw a Tea Party Express ad on FOX for Brown.
Weight of Glory on January 18, 2010 at 5:20 PM
ok, i must of missed something….humpbot?
cmsinaz on January 18, 2010 at 5:21 PM
Last week I was hoping he would be within 5 points, a loss would be a message…now I am getting greedy, I want him to win by double digits…too greedy? I don’t think so.
right2bright on January 18, 2010 at 5:21 PM
y’all need to be drinkin some GOOD red!
blatantblue on January 18, 2010 at 5:21 PM
Zogby was on Hannity said Coakley will win. Rasmussen said to close to call.
deidre on January 18, 2010 at 5:21 PM
Maybe they can get a pickup game of dodgeball going on the other side of the curtain.
ya2daup on January 18, 2010 at 5:21 PM
will be right over…you can’t beat $2 chuck
cmsinaz on January 18, 2010 at 5:22 PM
“Martha Coakley? Never heard of her.” Charlie Gibson
the_nile on January 18, 2010 at 5:22 PM
Fair enough, but how do we know you haven’t switched to the battery-powered model?
Emperor Norton on January 18, 2010 at 5:22 PM
Wethal on January 18, 2010 at 4:50 PM
Don’t you mean “Wicked Awesome”? This is MA after all.
RedMassGroup is reporting on a fundraising email just out today from Coakley. Looks like they need money. Hmmm.
I was with Greater Boston Tea Party at the Garden today. It was a lovefest. Did interviews with Daily Telegraph, Slate, BBC (hope my husband sees it), London Times and The Economist. All are stunned to discover TPers are not crazy right-wing wack jobs. Loved cluing them in.
gopmom on January 18, 2010 at 5:22 PM
They are playing here in Omaha. Scott Brown, the
MassachusettEsPatriot’s candidate.OmahaConservative on January 18, 2010 at 5:22 PM
Hate to be a downer but Zogby and Rasmussen were just on Hannity and said Coakly will either win by two or lose by two. Rasmussen said Brown would win. These high numbers are suspicious. Zogby said that the Democrats had the better get out the vote.I don’t agree with that unless he means the dead vote.
sandee on January 18, 2010 at 5:23 PM
If Brown wins tomorrow, you will see the humpbot in all it’s glory…don’t miss it…
right2bright on January 18, 2010 at 5:23 PM
Oh yeah, oh yeah.
Almost time for a humpbot?
Amadeus on January 18, 2010 at 5:24 PM
Have you ever had Trader Jose’s brand of beer? $4.99 a six.
Pricey yes, but it is worth it.
Geochelone on January 18, 2010 at 5:24 PM
Count me as getting swept up in the hope-n-change…
Baring fraud, dead voters, incorrect polls, or a tidal wave of Democrat turnout…
Brown: 54
Coakley: 42
Kennedy: 4
I’ve updated my prediction based on today’s polls, and the fact that she cannot even fill a small high school gym for a rally.
This isn’t done on any gut change, as I still feel something bad is happening tomorrow. This is more of a mental check.
Enoxo on January 18, 2010 at 5:25 PM
The danger is all the buses that the unions have to bus people to the polls.
The dems do have a better “get out the vote”, they have the time, money, and unions to do their bidding.
right2bright on January 18, 2010 at 5:25 PM
okie dokie…
cmsinaz on January 18, 2010 at 5:26 PM
Gulp. Zogby’s good. Usually right on the mark. WTH?
Rational Thought on January 18, 2010 at 5:26 PM
Or was Babs Boxer holding one of her AGW hearings?
ThePrez on January 18, 2010 at 5:27 PM
Now I feel better. You had me worried since you were so prescient and savvy on some other matters (NY23 etc).
This will be the greatest DONK smackdown in history.
Geochelone on January 18, 2010 at 5:27 PM
Hannity just had Rasmussen and Zogby on. Both said it was within 1%. One picked Coakley the other Brown.
derft on January 18, 2010 at 5:27 PM
You will see tomorrow night. A little something in the way we celebrate here on Hot Air. If you have not been here more than two years you probably have never seen it. We haven’t had much to celebrate in the last few years.
conservnut on January 18, 2010 at 5:27 PM
that leaves you more wall jacks to plug in that humpbot, eh? Get ‘er all juiced up for tomorrow night cuz she’s gonna get plum wore out.
ted c on January 18, 2010 at 5:28 PM
AP, are you saying that he saved or create a poll point?
tommylotto on January 18, 2010 at 5:29 PM
Yes, I have had it. Really good.
OmahaConservative on January 18, 2010 at 5:29 PM
now AP can plug in his “My Size Candy” life like sex dollette
blatantblue on January 18, 2010 at 5:29 PM
Rasmussen was closer though as he said when they polled likely voters, Brown one. I’m going with Rasmussen on this one.
deidre on January 18, 2010 at 5:29 PM
Thanks for that, now I am on a yoyo roller coaster, becoming bi-polar as well. These polls are loopy. What gives?
Geochelone on January 18, 2010 at 5:30 PM
Ultimately it depends on turnout. I mean, these polls could be completely wrong if there is a higher enthusiasm for Coakley that is not being represented–or at least, a hatred of Brown and Republicans.
And it IS Massachusetts.
Enoxo on January 18, 2010 at 5:31 PM
Exit question: Given the stakes for ObamaCare, would this be the biggest upset in modern political history?
Almost. The real upset is when Pelosi tries to get the House to pass the Senate’s version word for word and the nay’s cross 218. That or they just declare it dead and walk away. We’re not out of the woods yet.
El_Terrible on January 18, 2010 at 5:31 PM
I’ll have to wait until I can get my hubby’s card…both of mine are corporate cards!!! (I used his last week):)
DanaSmiles on January 18, 2010 at 5:35 PM
Coakley’s only chance now is for Obama to resign tomorrow.
MB4 on January 18, 2010 at 5:35 PM
If Democrats feel threatend and that a Republican is being forced onto them, they could easily come out and vote heavily for Coakley which could cause her to win in an unexpected landslide–which is what I originally was predicting.
But there are just too many polls that are showing the same basic stats (Brown getting 20% dems, majority of Independents, and Coakley getting a handful of Republicans).
Either the polls are incredibly off–and it has been known to happen–or this is going to be run away. Rasmussen saying it’s close and Brown by 1 makes me want to hedge back to my original Coakley landslide prediction… but I don’t understand what he’s seeing without some type of stats.
Enoxo on January 18, 2010 at 5:36 PM
Fit me for a straight jacket right now. If Coakley wins I will need to be netted are carted away. The bottom line is no one knows WTF is going to happen. Zogby and Rasmussen just freaked me out.
VOTE please.
Geochelone on January 18, 2010 at 5:36 PM
They have a pre 1776 mindset.
MB4 on January 18, 2010 at 5:36 PM
As to GOTV efforts, I’m just speculating here, but every Senate race in that state has been a no-brainer for how many decades? I imagine a lot of democrats never bothered to vote at all, especially in off-year elections, figuring “the other democrat” would get the job done and send Teddy or Lurch to the Senate. Now all of a sudden they have to vote? And for a candidate they don’t give a rip about, don’t even know her name, and it’s snowing/raining outside? I don’t think so. I think the GOTV and momentum has to go to Brown for this one.
Rational Thought on January 18, 2010 at 5:36 PM
hear weather is going to be kinda bad in beantown tomorrow.
ted c on January 18, 2010 at 5:37 PM
Coakley’s only chance now is for Obama to resign tomorrow.
MB4 on January 18, 2010 at 5:35 PM
Hope you are correct. Still I am saying some extra prayers tonight.
derft on January 18, 2010 at 5:37 PM
I’m just outta breath here!!
We better get us some HUMPBOT!!
Pablo Snooze on January 18, 2010 at 5:41 PM
coakley rally, set to start in five minutes in middle school gym, is 3/4 empty. they’ve pulled curtain across middle of gym.
Forgive me if this has already been said: It’s curtains for Martha.
Buy Danish on January 18, 2010 at 5:42 PM
I am hereby resigning from the office of the Presidency. I will spend some of my time trying to forgive myself for making America worse off when I could have made America better off with the same effort and I will spend the rest of my life living in a hut with my half-brother in Kenya studying horticulture.
- Barack Obama
MB4 on January 18, 2010 at 5:43 PM
Trader Joes and Sequoia Nat’l Park are the only things I miss from CA. (and I have family there!)
anniekc on January 18, 2010 at 5:45 PM
gotcha…joined up last year….
cmsinaz on January 18, 2010 at 5:45 PM
Tomorrow night I’ll be watching to see if Humpbot humps a garden hoe. If not, they should add it for November.
FloatingRock on January 18, 2010 at 5:47 PM
Why hasn’t Zogby published anything or did I miss that one?
Knucklehead on January 18, 2010 at 5:48 PM
Zogby hasn’t run a poll for this election–so I have no idea what he sees with regard to claiming Coakley will win.
Enoxo on January 18, 2010 at 5:50 PM
1/4th of a middle school gym? That’s a few hundred people. She has that many paid to work on the campaign. I can hear the sound of air leaking out 2000 miles away. SSSSsssssssss.
Do we have a picture of the gym with Coakley up there speaking?
Mojave Mark on January 18, 2010 at 5:50 PM
If the Humpbot makes an appearance, there should be an “ObamaCare” sign involved.
PappaMac on January 18, 2010 at 5:52 PM
I see a lucrative new career doing television commercials for LifeCall for Madam Coakle.
“I’ve fallen and I can’t get up”.
MB4 on January 18, 2010 at 5:53 PM
Intrade: Brown – 74.5, Coakley – 27.5
behiker on January 18, 2010 at 5:54 PM
Let’s pass the time. Who does Obama fire first? Rahm or Axel-grease?
Rational Thought on January 18, 2010 at 5:55 PM
Oh dear that is not good. Both Zogby and Rasmussen are pretty dependable pollsters and I am more inclined to believe them in terms of polls then the others. I am still praying for Brown to win but if it is only by 1% or 2% then the Democrats will likely find a way to hand it to Coakely handily.
Still after all of those high numbers (all over the place though they are) these numbers are very surprising and does not make much sense, at least to me.
Still there is nothing more we can do at this point but pray and hope.
Shogun144 on January 18, 2010 at 5:57 PM
Neither has done a poll in a few days, a lot has happened. I’m going to have to say that’s just there best guess based on more of a feeling than anything else.
uknowmorethanme on January 18, 2010 at 5:58 PM
Axel-grease, Rahm has to look like he left under his own steam so he can run for office again. Axel-grease can just go back into the public sector doing what he was doing before. While, of course, spending more time with his family.
Cindy Munford on January 18, 2010 at 5:58 PM
Lame Duck
BKeyser on January 18, 2010 at 5:59 PM
I didn’t believe you. Then I looked it up.
RushBaby on January 18, 2010 at 6:01 PM
Poll points saved or created?
mr.blacksheep on January 18, 2010 at 6:01 PM
If Zogby and Rasumssen haven’t run polls of their own for days or at all, they’re just pulling it out of their arse then. I trust the places that have actually done polls.
KSgop on January 18, 2010 at 6:02 PM
Not to pick snits, but that’s a goose, not a duck. But I understand the analogy.
PappaMac on January 18, 2010 at 6:02 PM
i wonder, they are his right and left arm, he can’t live without them or jarrett
cmsinaz on January 18, 2010 at 6:02 PM
Let’s not get overly optimistic. We don’t know what effect if any, the one dear leader’s visit had. These polls are too soon after the visit to give us that picture.
I’m not normally pessimistic, but Mass isn’t even a purple state and it is very unlikely that the voters will turn out for Brown. Especially if fence voters think that they don’t have to vote for Brown because he has this locked up. I think folks need to continue to be fired up and at the same time make certain to get the voters out to the polling places.
matthew26 on January 18, 2010 at 6:02 PM
Maybe they’re including the ACORN factor.
FloatingRock on January 18, 2010 at 6:03 PM
Dang, didn’t see your very witty, humorous, clever, inspired post.
mr.blacksheep on January 18, 2010 at 6:05 PM
Looks like a duck to me… Don’t geese have longer necks?
FloatingRock on January 18, 2010 at 6:07 PM
It’s just an assignment for fun, I actually don’t think anyone will go. Someone has to pull the strings.
Cindy Munford on January 18, 2010 at 6:08 PM
On the scrolling Fox News ticker, it just said that today is “Blue Monday – The most depressing day of the year”. Oh how appropriate that is for the Dems today.
KSgop on January 18, 2010 at 6:09 PM
ok
cmsinaz on January 18, 2010 at 6:10 PM
Good Point. I was going by the body and feathers, but it really doesn’t matter. Sorry I brought it up.
Carry on.
PappaMac on January 18, 2010 at 6:11 PM
Pappa- you could be right. I googled duck, and this was one of the google images. I needed a good stock though, and this one worked okay. I’ll have to be more diligent in my research though. – Maybe I’ll alter into something cooked?
And no problem for pointing it out- I should be better at attention to detail. :-)
BKeyser on January 18, 2010 at 6:13 PM
Well maybe. Or maybe a lot of those college kids graduated with no jobs last year and have had a change of heart. Amazing what spending a year back at home with mom and dad and no income can do for your political leanings.
angryed on January 18, 2010 at 6:15 PM
I was guessing it was an albatross.
GnuBreed on January 18, 2010 at 6:21 PM
Intrade now has Brown 77 and Coakley 26!
Dale on January 18, 2010 at 6:22 PM
I can vouch for this. It’s amazing how conservative my liberal friends have started to sound over the last year, economically-speaking. They don’t realize it, of course, and would still tell you that Conservatives are the bane of the earth, but economic realities are economic realities, so I’ve seen some of them move toward the light.
To be fair, though, I find this dynamic a lot less likely in Mass, where the fresh-outta-school 20-somethings probably come from a wealthy and indulgent parentage that wouldn’t have let them feel the economic pain of the last year. Just sayin, based on anecdotal evidence.
Animator Girl on January 18, 2010 at 6:23 PM
Anyone else notice that Politico’s headline for this story currently reads “Coakley UP Nine”? Clearly they meant down, but this goes to show the media’s disbelief over Brown’s performance.
Yossarian on January 18, 2010 at 6:30 PM
With three years to go, you could be right.
BKeyser on January 18, 2010 at 6:32 PM
It’s stuff like this that just brings out the Eeyore in me. How can these two be so off from every other poll?
anniekc on January 18, 2010 at 6:35 PM
You did fine. The image ROCKS.
RushBaby on January 18, 2010 at 6:36 PM
whoa! here it comes folks. Polls open in <12 hrs.
ted c on January 18, 2010 at 6:43 PM
Brown’s rally yesterday had over 3000 at Mechaninc’s Hall where they overflowed the main area and the rooms adjoining it. Over a thousand stood outside in the rain and snow.
Fire officials said that a little over a thousand (maybe 1100) showed up for Obama.
Brown had more people standing outside in the crappy weather.
Coakley’s main phone bank was deserted this morning. Either her callers are wicked confident or not.
The turnout at marcia’s rally may be what took the wind out of Obama’s presentation. Imagine what went through his mind when he heard they had to pull the curtain to try to make the place appear full.
That had to sting.
dogsoldier on January 18, 2010 at 6:45 PM
Thanks! I appreciate the compliment.
BKeyser on January 18, 2010 at 6:45 PM
8:00 PM Eastern.
turfmann on January 18, 2010 at 6:58 PM
I tend to believe that Rasmussen is one of the more believable polls – so i can believe that its still too close to call – It seems a little far fetched to think that Brown is up by 9%, although i would loved to be wrong – lets not forget what happened in NY-23 – the independent vote was supposed to heavily swing in Doug Hoffman’s favor – what happened there ?
As always, please dont get complacent – please tell all your friends and family and then some more to go out and vote.
nagee76 on January 18, 2010 at 7:03 PM
I bet it doesn’t even have a twist-off cap. Wine snob!!!
Fishoutofwater on January 18, 2010 at 7:04 PM
A lot of these college fools aren’t even from here and so can’t vote. Thankfully.
SittingDeadRed on January 18, 2010 at 7:08 PM
It’s a bit depressing, I would love to watch the wheels come off. Fingers crossed.
Cindy Munford on January 18, 2010 at 7:10 PM
I believe it – one candidate is their cool older brother or uncle, and one candidate reminds them of their mom.
PatMac on January 18, 2010 at 7:10 PM
Been gone from there two years now and the only thing my wife misses is the Seal Beach Trader Joe’s and her two-buck chuck. I miss the beach scenery but we’re both glad to be back in the USA here in Tennessee.
PatMac on January 18, 2010 at 7:15 PM
That made me chuckle – I feel the same way! I was all excited and now depressed.
silvernana on January 18, 2010 at 7:18 PM
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