Suffolk’s bellwether areas showing double-digit lead for Brown on final day
posted at 2:10 pm on January 18, 2010 by Ed Morrissey
Suffolk’s poll on Thursday was the first major poll to show Scott Brown with a significant lead against Martha Coakley. At the time, Suffolk gave Brown a four-point edge with just five days to go. Today, Suffolk surveyed what it calls “bellwether” counties — areas which reflect the state as a whole best — and finds that three of them show Brown up by double digits. Ben Smith quotes the release at Politico:
The bellwether polling, conducted Saturday, Jan. 16, and Sunday, Jan. 17, shows:
• Brown (55 percent) leads Coakley (40 percent) by 15 points in Gardner. Independent candidate Joseph L. Kennedy polls 2 percent, while 3 percent are undecided.
• In Fitchburg, Brown (55 percent) has a 14-point lead over Coakley (41 percent), with 2 percent for Kennedy and 2 percent undecided.
• Peabody voters give Brown (57 percent), a 17-point lead over Coakley (40 percent), with Kennedy polling 1 percent and 3 percent undecided.
Peabody is an interesting case. It is in the MA-06 CD, which elected Rep. John Tierney (D) in six straight elections. He usually gets 2-1 landslides for re-election in this district. Fitchburg is in MA-01, represented for almost 20 years by John Olver (D), who usually wins by 3-1 margins — when he’s opposed at all. Gardner also falls in MA-01.
These districts usually give big turnouts to Democrats. If I were Tierney and Olver, I’d start updating my retirement plans.
Blowback
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Yeah baby!!
DanaSmiles on January 18, 2010 at 2:12 PM
*gulp*
SouthernGent on January 18, 2010 at 2:12 PM
Keep it coming, Ed. LOL!
PLEASE SEND SCOTT $$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$, He will need it for certification.
OmahaConservative on January 18, 2010 at 2:12 PM
Nothing a good beating by union thugs won’t turn around.
Bishop on January 18, 2010 at 2:13 PM
Curious as to how Brown is doing in Barney “cocktail” Frank’s district. Anyone on the ground there?
J.J. Sefton on January 18, 2010 at 2:13 PM
My girlfriend is out of town on business tomorrow night.
I’m going to get berserker drunk tomorrow if Brown pulls this off.
If any of my neighbors are on this board, you’ve been warned.
Chuck Schick on January 18, 2010 at 2:13 PM
As well as every dem who routinely wins by less than 2 to 1.
Vashta.Nerada on January 18, 2010 at 2:13 PM
Yahoo!
cmsinaz on January 18, 2010 at 2:14 PM
I want to play Mika of Morning Joe.
(fluff my hair clear my throat)
“GASP!”
Marcus on January 18, 2010 at 2:14 PM
If I were Tierney and Orvel, I’d start updating my retirement plans.
Don’t get over-excited, Ed. Brown winning a special election in these districts doesn’t mean incumbents who normally win 3-1 are in any real danger.
Still, it’s good to see Brown up by so much in the bellwethers.
David Mickelson on January 18, 2010 at 2:14 PM
All this good news is really making tomorrow seem even further away.
He deserves this win – he ran one hell of a campaign
gophergirl on January 18, 2010 at 2:14 PM
Come on, HotAir Eeyores! You can pop this balloon, I know you can. :)
Missy on January 18, 2010 at 2:15 PM
This is almost too good to be true…it makes me worry.
d1carter on January 18, 2010 at 2:15 PM
Curious as to how Brown is doing in Barney “cocktail” Frank’s district. Anyone on the ground there?
Barney Frank might be.
David Mickelson on January 18, 2010 at 2:15 PM
it’s the end of dear leader’s world as he knows it, and I feel fine
:-)
cmsinaz on January 18, 2010 at 2:15 PM
I’ll be breathing better in about 36 hours. Hopefully it will be convincing enough, even with all the fraud, that there will be no recounts!
PrincipledPilgrim on January 18, 2010 at 2:15 PM
Won’t be able to sleep tonight….
PatriotRider on January 18, 2010 at 2:15 PM
This is not the first time Michelle Obama was not proud of Massachusetts.
Roy Rogers on January 18, 2010 at 2:15 PM
Dems? Meet the wilderness. Get used to it. You’ll be there awhile.
John the Libertarian on January 18, 2010 at 2:16 PM
It ain’t over to the fat lady sings.
With fingers and toes crossed.
patrick neid on January 18, 2010 at 2:17 PM
Keep prayed up and keep the good thoughts flowing, Gang. This ain’t over with until Chris Matthews cries and Olby says the following: “Alas, poor Coakley. I knew her, Shultzie.”
kingsjester on January 18, 2010 at 2:17 PM
Heh heh
ladyingray on January 18, 2010 at 2:17 PM
amen kj!
cmsinaz on January 18, 2010 at 2:18 PM
“The citizens of Massachusetts have voted stupidly.” -Barack Obama, 1/20/2010
KSgop on January 18, 2010 at 2:18 PM
I’m glad we’re here in the Pacific Time Zone so that we can celebrate early. It’s poll closing time somewhere.
Mojave Mark on January 18, 2010 at 2:18 PM
I’ll believe it once the results are certified. Until then, the Dems will leave no stone unturned, no law unbroken.
revolutionismyname on January 18, 2010 at 2:18 PM
I can hardly wait for the election results tomorrow! Good luck to you Scott and to the MA voters. Good thing I don’t bite my fingernails.
L
letget on January 18, 2010 at 2:19 PM
This is going to be hard for Allah to tamp down. I don’t see how he can continue to be pessimistic about THIS race after all of this.
Now, that doesn’t mean I’m optimistic about Obamacare being defeated like so many on here are. I just have this feeling that they are going to try to pull something out at the last minute tomorrow. They are too close to not get SOMETHING. The health care bill will cement them in power in the long run even if it means temporary losses.
MobileVideoEngineer on January 18, 2010 at 2:20 PM
Headline 01/19
Titanic Dems hit Mass-berg.
—
I’m giddy with anticipation.
EZnSF on January 18, 2010 at 2:21 PM
MobileVideoEngineer on January 18, 2010 at 2:20 PM
You’re right. Obama and his minions will try to pull something. Soros has too much money invested in Obama for him to be a lame duck for 3 years.
kingsjester on January 18, 2010 at 2:22 PM
Are we really talking about a potential blowout?
CliffHanger on January 18, 2010 at 2:22 PM
http://politicalwire.com/archives/2010/01/18/arg_poll_shows_brown_leading_by_seven_.html
Final ARG poll: Brown +7
I think ARG had Brown +3 in a poll last week
Mark1971 on January 18, 2010 at 2:22 PM
A round on me at tomorrow’s HA Election Party for every point Brown pulls ahead!
petefrt on January 18, 2010 at 2:22 PM
It’s not too good to be true! Marcia is the worst candidate in history.
Today she said the 61% who think Obamacare is too expensive are wrong!
PattyJ on January 18, 2010 at 2:23 PM
I’ll be joining you, I got a six pack of Amber bock, couple of bottles of Sam Adams and I still got a bottle of Mead.
Valhalla here I come.
Holger on January 18, 2010 at 2:23 PM
It was her birthday yesterday, so I’d say especially NOT proud of Obama’s America.
Urban Infidel on January 18, 2010 at 2:23 PM
woohoo
booter on January 18, 2010 at 2:24 PM
I will state it again…Brown is the first of the domino effect.
Wednesday morning it won’t be “How do we pass Obamacare?” it will be “How do we keep our jobs?”.
It isn’t Brown’s vote that will turn the tide, it is the thousands of votes for him and not for “Marcia”…they are telling the story, back-off or you will be next.
This is monumental, much greater then one additional senator. The voters are telling congress what they feel in the first real election after one year of the dems shoving bills down our throat, like Barney in a San Fran bath house…
right2bright on January 18, 2010 at 2:24 PM
Up here in MA-06, we plan on retiring Tierney this year. Vote Hudak for Congress!
RedMindBlueState on January 18, 2010 at 2:24 PM
Obama will just push through a $6 trillion dollar spending bill using reconciliation so everyone can get a union-built truck.
pedestrian on January 18, 2010 at 2:25 PM
What do you drink at a political funeral?
EZnSF on January 18, 2010 at 2:25 PM
email I just received:
Nebraska Republican Party
24 HOURS TO VICTORY!
HELP MASSACHUSETTS REPUBLICAN U.S. SENATE CANDIDATE SCOTT BROWN WIN AND TAKE AWAY THE DEMOCRATS’ FILIBUSTER-PROOF MAJORITY IN THE U.S. SENATE BY MAKING CALLS FROM HOME NOW THROUGH ELECTION DAY, TUESDAY, JANUARY 19th, 2010!
YOU WILL NOT INCUR ANY LONG DISTANCE CHARGES FOR MAKING THESE CALLS
SCOTT BROWN GAINS LEAD OVER MARTHA COAKLEY AT 48% – 45%: “Republican Scott Brown leads Democrat Martha Coakley 48% to 45% in the special Massachusetts US Senate race to replace Senator Ted Kennedy in a telephone survey conducted January 12-14 among 600 likely voters in Massachusetts saying they will definitely vote in the special election on January 19.” (“Massachusetts US Senate,” American Research Group, 1/15/10) American Research Group, Inc., 1/15/10
THE POLLS SHOW THAT YOUR CALLS ARE WORKING: Scott’s campaign relies on every call you make. “‘On [our] list is about 511,000 independents and those are the people we’ve been hitting with our phones…The targeted voter outreach might be paying off, and is a big part of why Brown has surged ahead,’ Scott Brown top adviser Eric Fehrnstrom.” (“Coakley, Brown push for last-minute edge,” The Lowell Sun, 1/17/10)
AS WE MAKE CALLS AND SCOTT TIRELESSLY STUMPS, MARTHA WAITS FOR OBAMA: “Polls have shown national support for Obama and his health care initiative dropping, which some pundits and pollsters have linked to Coakley’s own woes in Massachusetts, along with a failure to campaign aggressively. As she tried to inject some badly needed momentum into her campaign, some supporters privately groused that her campaign waited until only the last minute to ask for help.” (“Coakley awaits Obama assist in faltering campaign,” The Boston Herald, 1/17/10)
Republican U.S. Senate candidate Scott Brown needs YOUR help to achieve victory
If our own Senator won’t listen to us, let’s help elect someone who will!
- GOP -
Paid for by the Nebraska Republican Party . 402.475.2122 . http://www.negop.org
Not authorized by any candidate or candidate’s committee
OmahaConservative on January 18, 2010 at 2:26 PM
Wow. And Suffolk U is a very liberal school… They must be all breathing with paper bags.
dogsoldier on January 18, 2010 at 2:26 PM
How did she ever pass the bar? Seriously.
gophergirl on January 18, 2010 at 2:27 PM
Do you believe in magic?
In a young girls heart
How the music can free her
whenever it starts
And it’s magic
if the music is groovy
It makes you feel happy like an old time movie
I’ll tell ya about the magic
It’ll free your soul
but it’s like trying to tell a stranger ’bout rock n roll
If you believe in magic, don’t bother to choose
If it’s jug band music or rhythm and blues
Just go and listen
It’ll start with a smile
It won’t wipe off your face no matter how hard you try
Your feet start tapping
And you can’t seem to find
How you got there
So just blow your mind
If you believe in magic
Come along with me
We’ll dance until morning, just you and me
and maybe, if the music is right
I’ll meet ya tomorrow
so late at night
Knucklehead on January 18, 2010 at 2:27 PM
The chant just writes itself:
Hudak ? Hudak ? Hudak say dey gonna beat Tierney?
WashJeff on January 18, 2010 at 2:28 PM
How did she ever pass the bar? Seriously.
gophergirl on January 18, 2010 at 2:27 PM
Probably the same way Harold Ford, Jr. did. She took it more than once.
kingsjester on January 18, 2010 at 2:29 PM
I love the smell of irony in the morning!
Never forget that the only reason Deval Patrick cannot appoint an Obamabot is because the Mass legislature changed the rules when Mitt was governor to stop the governor from appointing a replacement Senator. By changing the rules to make sure Mitt could not appoint, they now get the special election of all special elections: the 41st vote against health care will come from the bluest of blue states, from the seat formerly occupied by the 2nd most liberal senator evah. Thanks, David Gergen, for the perfect lead in to Brown declaration of independence: It is the PEOPLE’S SEAT!
mmmmmmmmmmmm, mmmmmmmmmmmm, mmmmmmmmmmmm!
Ain’t America grand?
mmmmmmmmmmmm, mmmmmmmmmmmm, mmmmmmmmmmmm!
JustTruth101 on January 18, 2010 at 2:29 PM
I think this will will be similar to the Rebublican winning the VA gov race in November. The Dems lost a lot of ground due to Obamacare as they try to force this through even though it is unpopular. Then they put up a really bad candidate. Had they had a good candidate running against Brown,this would be really closer in the polls.
In the end, they will blame Coakley and not the national agenda (even though the Dems are trying to make it a national issue).
Can’t wait for Brown to win so we can see the real face of the Dem party as they try everything to push healthcare through with less than 60 votes.
smrtas1 on January 18, 2010 at 2:29 PM
I just don’t want to witness another Al Franken-like close race where the dems just bleed the republican votes dry with the help of the media and under the table tactics. They may not have the votes, but they still have a $hitload of money to scam with.
Punditpawn on January 18, 2010 at 2:29 PM
Some pundit, or it may have been the weatherman from MSNBC said this morning that northern Mass will have so much snowfall, Republicans in that district might not make it to the polls…..wishful thinking? Of course this moron has no clue that self-claimed Repubs drive 4-wheel drives
Rovin on January 18, 2010 at 2:30 PM
I think I’ll tear open that bottle of Johnny Walker Black and Party like it’s 1776.
ronnyraygun on January 18, 2010 at 2:30 PM
Adios Motherf*cker
1/2 oz vodka
1/2 oz rum
1/2 oz 1800® Tequila
1/2 oz gin
1/2 oz Blue Curacao liqueur
2 oz sweet and sour mix
2 oz 7-Up® soda
Pour all ingredients except the 7-Up into a chilled glass filled with ice cubes. Top with 7-Up and stir gently.
atheling on January 18, 2010 at 2:31 PM
I’ll be too poor to drink till Wednesday or Thursday. And my husband and I were, ah, less than careful this month. So drinking may have to wait until Aunt Flo visits (if she visits). But I’ll be awake and ready tomorrow night.
Sekhmet on January 18, 2010 at 2:31 PM
How many Blue Dog reps. will try to join the GOP if tomorrow turns out like we want?
Lou Budvis on January 18, 2010 at 2:31 PM
Don’t buy into that, panic does that to politicians. She is a seasoned pro, ripe to take this job. It was Brown and the tens of thousands of people disgusted with Obama and his administration.
She was unbeatable up to two weeks ago, it was when the people finally got fed up with the dems, yes their dems, of shoving bills down their throats, and bullying Americans. Even Americans they don’t agree with, these fine people got fed up with them bullying people like the Tea Party.
No, my friend, it wasn’t Marcia’s bad campaign, it is who she is aligned with…America, liberal and conservative, are tired of the endless bickering, the low handed way of handling midnight votes, the secrecy, the lies…remember, in Boston the first building ever build, ever in the history of the world, was built where the public could actually personally watch government govern. Where the people were part of the government…and that 200+ year old tradition has been trampled by Obama and his cronies…
One thing Boston knows, freedom to oversee our government, and that has been taken away.
right2bright on January 18, 2010 at 2:31 PM
Holy Cow!!!!
kringeesmom on January 18, 2010 at 2:32 PM
When a candidate can out draw the president on the same day rallies are held, the tide has turned. Time to take our country back. Flush the RINOs too.
volsense on January 18, 2010 at 2:33 PM
And I will virtually join you!
katy the mean old lady on January 18, 2010 at 2:33 PM
I haven’t had a drink since November – I might let myself have a glass of wine or two if Brown pulls this out.
gophergirl on January 18, 2010 at 2:33 PM
I feel you brudda. You just know that Acorn is stuffing those ballot boxes and raising people from the dead. Brown has to win by a margin large enough to beat legitimate AND illegitimate votes. If he does lose, it will be to the cheating, the way Coleman lost to Franken.
JustTruth101 on January 18, 2010 at 2:34 PM
Wrong! This will be equivalent to the CUBS WINNING THE WORLD SERIES!
Rovin on January 18, 2010 at 2:34 PM
He’s a putz. He’s pro-choice now…
ladyingray on January 18, 2010 at 2:35 PM
While the GoreBull Warming Puppets are pushing their Prius down their driveway all day.
ronnyraygun on January 18, 2010 at 2:35 PM
What’s up with Rassmussen poll… The page is not loading… Has anyone else tried… I read it every day for Obama’s passion #
kringeesmom on January 18, 2010 at 2:35 PM
Rasmussen is messed up today.
andy85719 on January 18, 2010 at 2:36 PM
You drink in the sweet smell of success and…change. If Brown wins, kiss 40 years of Kennedy infestation goodbye.
I will take my tots for a snowmobile ride, a nice slow ride and enjoy their little company and realize that the disaster of demorat rule is starting to get checked.
Bishop on January 18, 2010 at 2:36 PM
Paging Mr. Humpbot. Paging Mr. Humpbot.
stldave on January 18, 2010 at 2:36 PM
Everyone will be drunk typing.
If anyone need any recipes I got the NY Bartenders Guide at the ready.
Holger on January 18, 2010 at 2:37 PM
MobileVideoEngineer on January 18, 2010 at 2:20 PM
I agree about O-care cementing them in power in perpetuity. however, one of the (if not the only) reasons that the NHC debate has gotten this far is that Nancy and Harry convinced their brethren that a “yes” vote would not kill them politically. A Brown victory will kill that argument dead. Not only that, but a Brown victory will also bring home in real terms that Nan and Harry are leading their troops to a slaughter, not a great way to motivate them pre-battle.
I’ll agree that they’ll be in panic mode to pass something but their only back room option would be to pass the Senate bill, but they still have to pass it in the one place where everyone is up for reelection this year, the House. The biggest casualty of a Brown victory will be Nancy’s ability convince Dems that passage of the Senate bill WON’T doom them. Even the MSM is slowly realizing that Obama has failed with this bill, even Chrissy said so. And if you’ve lost Chrissy, then you’ve lost most of the MSM, at least privately.
volnation on January 18, 2010 at 2:37 PM
He’s a putz. He’s pro-choice now…
ladyingray on January 18, 2010 at 2:35 PM
He wants to run in New York for the same reason HIllary ran there instead of Arkansas. Tennesse knows him too well.
kingsjester on January 18, 2010 at 2:37 PM
Didn’t Burt Schilling play for the Cubs.
ronnyraygun on January 18, 2010 at 2:37 PM
Whooo…now you are dealing with things that will NEVER happen. Brown can win. Cubs…no!
Let’s just say it will be like the Red Sox or White Sox winning the world series. Did not happen for a LONG time, but did happen.
WashJeff on January 18, 2010 at 2:37 PM
They changed the rules back and forth to hold the seat open until Teddy was old enough to run for the Senate back when JFK became president.
This whole hellthcare trainwreck was caused because they appointed a lame duck senator and now will have to go back to the drawing board because the people’s senator will not rubberstamp what the appointee voted for first time around.
pedestrian on January 18, 2010 at 2:38 PM
I don’t believe in counting chickens before they hatch, but if Brown does win I will take the opportunity to send my worthless pretty-boy Senator Bayh a simple email message:
Tick-tick-tick
Don’t know if he’s smart enough to understand it, but one of his aides will explain it to him.
SKYFOX on January 18, 2010 at 2:39 PM
A little ice and splash of water is all I use with my whisky, but thanks.
OmahaConservative on January 18, 2010 at 2:40 PM
Wow, I just saw about a minute ago Coakley with Carl Cameron …she said she doesn’t care what Curt Schilling thinks…she is not smart enough to be a Senator, how the heck did she pass the bar? Yikes!
JustTruth101 on January 18, 2010 at 2:40 PM
And all the Jan Bradys across the country now cry….Marsha Marsha Marsha……errrrrr Martha Martha Martha!
capejasmine on January 18, 2010 at 2:41 PM
The people at the Brown rally were all Yankees fans there to get Curt Shilling’s autograph.
pedestrian on January 18, 2010 at 2:41 PM
Come on……
Do it
blatantblue on January 18, 2010 at 2:42 PM
Chuck, I’m with you. I’m getting all banged up if Brown wins.
devil dog on January 18, 2010 at 2:42 PM
In this case, Dewars. As ol’ Teddy used to say, ” There’s thinkers, and there’s Dewars. Make mine a double.”
ICBM on January 18, 2010 at 2:43 PM
Holger on January
Doctor pepper bombs
blatantblue on January 18, 2010 at 2:44 PM
Gotta go for a bit.
Holger on January 18, 2010 at 2:45 PM
I just googled Ted Kennedy’s favorite drink; Chivas and water.
Maybe we should make it Chivas and Kool-aid.
I feel a buzz coming on!
EZnSF on January 18, 2010 at 2:45 PM
As a WSJ headline pronounced on Saturday, “The Backlash Is Coming, the Backlash Is Coming!”
BuckeyeSam on January 18, 2010 at 2:46 PM
Barney’s district has been gerrymandered (as have all the others here) to include a few conservative towns and many solid Democrat areas. They’ve even gone so far as to split major cities in half to protect their seats by diluting the conservative towns.
Brown will win this election going away. I’ll even go out on a limb and say that when the vote is finalized, he will have carried every congressional district, except the 8th, and only because it’s Boston and it’s immediate surrounding towns. And it wouldn’t surprise me if he won there too.
Update:
I’m now bringing five of my neighbors to the school to vote and have received a couple of calls already today to make sure I’m still driving them.
This race will be over before the polls close and we’ll all be drinking early. BROWN WILL WIN! BROWN WILL WIN!
singer on January 18, 2010 at 2:47 PM
If Coakley wins there are three possible realities:
1. Polling in MA no more an exact science than is Dream Interpretation.
2. Dems cooked the vote counts.
3. Some combination of #1 and #2.
Geochelone on January 18, 2010 at 2:50 PM
I have to ask: many bloggers here are referring to Marfa (Martha) Coakley as “Marcia”. Is that by design or are we channeling The Brady Bunch?
ya2daup on January 18, 2010 at 2:50 PM
Pud (Patrick) Kennedy repeatedly referred to Martha as Marcia during his endorsement of her.
OmahaConservative on January 18, 2010 at 2:51 PM
I’m listening to WTKK on the internet and every caller is referring to her as Marcia. ROTF
EZnSF on January 18, 2010 at 2:52 PM
LISTEN! Can you haer that? That’s the sound of Teddy rolling over (and over) in his grave.
angus mcbeemer on January 18, 2010 at 2:53 PM
Rush just announced that the already counted absentee ballots have Brown ahead by 16 points.
dogsoldier on January 18, 2010 at 2:55 PM
I am optimistic, but not going to pop the cork until we see the results.
Premature celebration makes me nervous.
RDuke on January 18, 2010 at 2:55 PM
I will take my tots for a snowmobile ride, a nice slow ride and enjoy their little company and realize that the disaster of demorat rule is starting to get checked.
Bishop on January 18, 2010 at 2:36 PM
Very cool, sounds like a great time…
SHARPTOOTH on January 18, 2010 at 2:56 PM
Hudak is running a good, strong campaign in the early going. Keep an eye on him.
Check his positions here.
MassVictim on January 18, 2010 at 2:57 PM
Can you “hear” that?
angus mcbeemer on January 18, 2010 at 2:57 PM
The other day, Patrick Kennedy called her “Marcia” 3 or 4 times. Didn’t even know her name but wanted everyone to vote for her.
An aside. Everyone is spelling it “Marcia.” But isn’t it actually spelled “Marsha?”
IrishEi on January 18, 2010 at 2:57 PM
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